Reds Notes: India, White Sox, Newman, Casali
The White Sox have interest in Reds second baseman Jonathan India, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. This item has some connection to a pair of other recent reports, one from last week about the Reds’ interest in Chicago’s pitchers, and an item from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand earlier today indicating that the Reds were at least open to consider moving India in a deal for controllable pitching.
However, Wittenmyer pushed back on Feinsand’s report, hearing that the Reds’ willingness to move India was “vastly overstated…and led to conversations assuring one of the most respected players in the clubhouse of the slim-to-none chance he’ll be traded.” Listening to offers out of due diligence doesn’t translate that the Reds are particularly eager to move India, with Wittenmyer indicating that Cincinnati’s talks about India fall “into the category of there’s no such thing as an untouchable player,” rather than the front office actually shopping the second baseman.
An India trade might make sense on paper, given Cincinnati’s glut of young infield talent and the team’s strong need for rotation help for an unexpected playoff push. That said, moving India might not be sensible from a chemistry standpoint, as Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, and Reds manager David Bell all spoke glowingly about India’s importance within the group.
“I don’t think you can really put into words what [India] means to this team,” Steer said. “He’s the guy who addresses the team after wins….He’s been through kind of every phase of what an organization goes through when they’re trying to win. He continues to be a great leader on and off the field, vocally, leading by example through his actions every single day.”
Wittenmyer cited the Brewers’ now-infamous trade of Josh Hader as an example of how a midseason deal that is sensible from a big-picture standpoint can be disastrous to the morale of a team trying to win now, as the Brewers were vocally demoralized in the wake of Hader’s move to the Padres last summer. Obviously the Hader trade has become something of a cautionary tale for front offices, giving Reds GM Nick Krall even more to ponder he looks for ways to bolster his surprise contender.
Of course, the Reds players could warm up to a trade quickly if a major player came back to Cincinnati in return — for instance, Dylan Cease. While Cease is one of four players the White Sox consider next to untouchable in trade talks, India (who is controlled through 2026) might be the kind of building block that might get the Sox considering moving the AL Cy Young Award runner-up. Likewise, in what might be the middle ground between Wittenmyer and Feinsand’s reports, landing a frontline hurler like Cease would be the only scenario that might get Krall and company to part ways with India.
Lucas Giolito is Chicago’s top trade asset heading into the deadline, yet the Reds aren’t at all likely to move India for a pitcher who will be a free agent after the season. Michael Kopech (who, like Cease, is controlled through 2025) could be an interesting target for the Reds, though Cincinnati might be wary of Kopech’s injury history.
Speaking of the Reds’ infield, Kevin Newman returned from the 10-day injured list today after a minimum 10-day absence due to gastritis. The veteran has hit .260/.318/.375 over 225 plate appearances this season, getting a good chunk of time at third base, second base, and shortstop. That said, Newman’s playing time has been reduced since the arrival of McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and now Christian Encarnacion-Strand in Cincinnati’s infield, and with the youngsters taking over, Newman looks like a prime candidate to be moved at the deadline.
Newman’s activation was one of a few transactions made by the Reds today, as righty Levi Stoudt was optioned to Triple-A and Daniel Duarte was called up to bring a fresh arm into the pitching ranks. More notably, catcher Curt Casali was placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to July 21) due to a left foot contusion.
With Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile already on the active roster, the Reds aren’t short in the catching department. Casali and Stephenson began the year in something of a timeshare behind the plate, as the Reds were trying to keep Stephenson healthy after his injury-shortened 2022 by using him regularly at DH and first base. However, with Joey Votto‘s return from the IL and the DH position being used to give at-bats to many young hitters, Stephenson has more increasingly taken on a regular catching workload, leaving Casali as an odd man out.
AL Central Notes: Lynn, Guardians, Twins, Turnbull
The two-year, $38MM extension that Lance Lynn signed with the White Sox in July 2021 also contained some partial no-trade protection, allowing Lynn to block deals to 10 teams per year. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the 10 clubs on Lynn’s no-trade list are the Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, Mets, Angels, Mariners, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays. Several of those teams are known be looking for pitching as the deadline approaches, though of Lynn’s 10 listed clubs, only Tampa Bay has been linked to the veteran right-hander to date.
This no-trade clause might not be much of an obstacle, as Rosenthal figures that Lynn would welcome the chance to join a contender. There is also an $18MM club option on Lynn’s services that figures to be bought out (for $1MM) by the Sox or a new team, considering that Lynn has struggled to a 6.18 ERA over 115 innings this season. Though home runs have been Lynn’s biggest issue, Rosenthal argues that joining a better defensive team would help Lynn’s fortunes, and some of his advanced metrics (like a 3.88 SIERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate) suggest that his ERA isn’t reflective of how well he has pitched in 2023.
More from around the AL Central…
- The Guardians are looking for a starting pitcher and a “complementary bat” at the deadline, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said during a recent edition of The Front Office on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter links). Injuries have thinned out Cleveland’s pitching staff, but offense might still be the bigger need given how inconsistent the Guards’ lineup has been all season. However, Antonetti felt that the Guardians will helped by Bo Naylor getting regular playing time, as well as the revived bats of Josh Bell and Andres Gimenez. “If there’s an opportunity to add another complementary bat that can ideally add some versatility, contribute in the outfield or get some at-bats at DH, that might be a place where we could also look to improve,” Antonetti said.
- Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey shared his own wishlist during his own appearance on the Front Office (Twitter links), as Minnesota is looking at “ways to fortify the middle of” the bullpen, and possibly “more options late in the game.” Falvey also said the Twins would like to add a right-handed hitter to a mostly left-handed lineup, but he praised the contributions of Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer (both righty-swingers) to the roster since Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have “struggled at times.”
- Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and other reporters that Spencer Turnbull is lined up for rehab starts on Tuesday and Sunday with the Tigers’ high-A affiliate. Turnbull hasn’t pitched since May 6 due to neck discomfort, so he is already eligible to return from the 60-day injured list whenever he is fully ramped up. It has been another tough setback for Turnbull, who missed some of the 2021 season and all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
White Sox Activate Joe Kelly, Designate Bryan Shaw
The White Sox announced that right-hander Joe Kelly has been activated from the 15-day injured list. In the corresponding move, righty Bryan Shaw was designated for assignment.
Kelly was dealing with inflammation in his throwing elbow, but the issue fortunately proved to be pretty minor, as he has only been out of action since July 5. After missing just beyond the 15-day minimum, Kelly will now return to Chicago’s bullpen for what might be a nine-day audition for rival teams in advance of the trade deadline. This is the final guaranteed season of Kelly’s two-year, $17MM contract, and while the White Sox hold a $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) on his services for 2024, it is probably safe to view Kelly as a rental piece unless he performs extremely well down the stretch.
Despite a 30.8% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 56.9% grounder rate, and a 2.90 SIERA, Kelly’s bottom-line numbers haven’t been nearly as good as his secondary stats would indicate. The reliever’s 4.82 ERA is almost a full two runs higher than his SIERA, and Kelly also has only a 56.6% strand rate, while a .319 BABIP has somewhat counteracted his success at keeping the ball on the ground. Still, opposing teams are very aware of Kelly’s advanced metrics, so the White Sox figure to draw some attention from bullpen-needy clubs.
Shaw signed a minor league deal with Chicago in late April, which came on the heels of another minors contract earlier in the offseason that resulted in the White Sox releasing the veteran at the end of Spring Training. Shaw was selected to the 26-man roster earlier this month, but he has a 9.39 ERA over 7 2/3 innings and six appearances in a White Sox uniform. Over 276 innings since the start of the 2018 season, Shaw has a 5.35 ERA while pitching with the Rockies, Mariners, Guardians, and White Sox, and he hasn’t been particularly effective apart from a solid 2021 season in Cleveland.
Now in his 13th MLB season, Shaw has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A if he clears waivers, though it isn’t known if he’ll again test free agency, or if he’d accept an outright and remain in Chicago’s organization. It is also possible the White Sox could release him altogether if he clears waivers, and even Shaw’s lack of results this year, it seems unlikely that another club might make a waiver claim.
Diamondbacks Have Shown Interest In Lucas Giolito
The Diamondbacks are among the teams to have shown interest in White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s a sensible match, given that Giolito is one of the top trade candidates this summer and the D’Backs have a need in their rotation.
The White Sox are 41-57, which places them nine games back of the division lead even in the weak American League Central. The playoff odds at FanGraphs have them down to a 1.5% chance of leapfrogging the Tigers, Guardians and Twins in order to take the crown. With just over a week to go until the August 1 deadline, it seems fair to expect them to make a few deals aimed at improving their chances in future seasons. Recent reporting has indicated the club is willing to consider deals on all players except for Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez, Dylan Cease and Andrew Vaughn.
Giolito would be one of their most logical trade chips, given that he is an impending free agent and a potential playoff starter for an acquiring club. MLBTR recently placed him in the #1 slot on a list of top deadline trade candidates, a reflection of both his likelihood to be traded and his appeal to other clubs.
The righty made 72 starts over the 2019 to 2021 seasons, posting a 3.47 earned run average in that time. That figure spiked to 4.90 last year but Giolito has brought it back down 3.96 here in 2023. Across those five seasons, he’s struck out 28.5% of hitters while walking 8.2%. He’s making $10.4MM this year but only about $3.35MM will be left to be paid out at the time of the deadline.
Just about any club in need of starting pitching should have at least some interest in Giolito and he’s already been connected to the Dodgers, while the Reds have reportedly had discussions with the White Sox about their starters, which presumably includes Giolito.
There’s plenty of logic in the Diamondbacks throwing their hat in the ring, given the state of their own rotation. The club has featured a top-heavy rotation this year, with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly doing strong work at the front. Kelly is on the injured list right now due to a calf issue and could return next week, but even if that proves to be the case, that still leaves the D’Backs with plenty of questions behind the Gallen-Kelly duo.
Tommy Henry has a 3.89 ERA but it’s possible he’s lucky to have it, as his .276 batting average on balls in play and 81.1% strand rate are both on the lucky side of average. His 5.07 FIP and 5.23 SIERA suggest some regression may be in store. Ryne Nelson has made 20 starts but with a 4.82 ERA in that time. Zach Davies has a 7.38 ERA for the year and is on the injured list for a second time. Prospect Brandon Pfaadt has been given six starts but has a 9.82 ERA in those.
Despite those rotation issues, the Snakes are 54-43 and currently tied for the top Wild Card spot in the National League, in addition to sitting just two games back of the Dodgers for the division lead. Adding some pitching for the final months of the postseason race would be a logical move, something that general manager Mike Hazen admitted last month.
Although Giolito will be highly in demand, the acquisition cost in terms of the trade return might not be exorbitant since he’s a rental, at least compared to a similar pitcher with multiple years of control. Hazen also recently said that the club will likely be “aggressive” but not “reckless” at the deadline, in terms of which younger players they are willing to give up. Perhaps going after an impending free agent like Giolito would fit that plan.
Whether the Diamondbacks are willing to be aggressive enough to land a pitcher like Giolito remains to be seen. There have already been a few clubs publicly connected to him and there are surely plenty of others who have called the White Sox. For any club that comes up short, some of the other rental starters that could be available include Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen and many others.
Rays Showing Interest In Several Veteran Starters
The Rays’ rotation has been ravaged by injury in 2023, with starters Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs both going down for the season already. Shane Baz underwent Tommy John surgery last September, and Shane McClanahan has been out since June 30 with a back injury (though he’s expected back tonight). Tyler Glasnow is healthy at the moment but has been limited to just nine starts this season. Southpaw Josh Fleming hit the injured list on June 3 and has since been moved to the 60-day IL.
Tampa Bay remains in first place despite that slate of health woes, but the rotation currently consists of McClanahan, Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. The Rays have had their share of bullpen games this season already, and with so many of their arms done for the year, they’re in the market for veteran rotation help. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they’ve already spoken to the White Sox about a potential deal for Lance Lynn, and they’ve also “extensively” scouted Cardinals rental arms Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.
Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM contract that contains a $18MM club option (or $1MM buyout) for the 2024 season. The 2021 All-Star finished in the top six of American League Cy Young voting each season from 2019-21 but is currently in the midst of one of the toughest seasons of his career. Through 108 1/3 frames, Lynn owns a 6.06 ERA, due largely to an MLB-high 24 home runs allowed.
While the long ball has plagued Lynn at career-worst levels in 2023, he’s still missing bats at a high level and limiting walks at a passable rate. Lynn’s 27.7% strikeout rate ranks tenth in the Majors among qualified starters, and his 14% swinging-strike rate ranks eighth. His 8.3% walk rate is just narrowly higher than the 7.9% average among big league starters. Metrics like xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.79) feel he’s outperformed his baseline ERA.
Lynn is being paid $18.5MM this season and, as of this writing, has about $7.6MM remaining on the deal — plus the $1MM buyout on next year’s option. Despite the poor results, Nightengale notes that the asking price on the righty remains high — likely reflective of both the limited number of starters available and the broad number of teams who believe Lynn’s strong K-BB profile makes him an appealing rebound candidate.
As for the Cardinals’ starters, both are rather straightforward trade candidates. The Cards sit in last place in the National League Central and are 11.5 games back not only in the division but also in the National League Wild Card chase. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak is already turning his focus to the 2024 season, and the Cardinals already look to be making some changes on the roster, as they’re reportedly set to designate lefty reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today.
Both Montgomery and Flaherty, meanwhile, are set to be free agents following the season. The 30-year-old Montgomery would be a natural candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, but the demand for rotation help should create a trade return that outpaces that value. In 18 starts and 103 innings this year, Montgomery boasts a 3.23 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate (roughly average for a starting pitcher), a strong 6.6% walk rate and an above-average 45.9% ground-ball rate. He’s earning $10MM on the season — about $4.1MM of which is yet to be paid out.
Flaherty, 27, was one of the NL’s best young starters in 2018-19 but has been plagued by injuries for much of the past few seasons. He’s been healthy in 2023, making 18 starts and tallying 98 2/3 innings, but this year’s 11.8% walk rate is an alarming mark that represents a continuation of last year’s career-worst levels (13.2%). Despite that high level, he has a 4.29 ERA with strikeout and ground-ball rates nearly identical to those of Montgomery. At $5.4MM, he’s earning roughly half the salary of Montgomery and has about $2.2MM still owed to him.
There’s no indication yet that the Rays have had any sort of advanced talks on any of the three, and this trio surely represents just a handful of a larger number of arms Tampa Bay is considering. It stands to reason that they’ll check in on the majority of arms available, particularly those currently playing for concrete sellers like the White Sox and Cardinals. Each of Lynn, Montgomery and Flaherty has a good chance to be moved in the next few weeks, and each will draw interest from a broad range of suitors. The Rays, with a deep farm system and clear postseason ambitions, have the ability and motivation to land just about any starting pitcher they covet; time will tell which direction they go as they continue to survey the market between now and the Aug. 1 deadline.
Central Notes: Perez, Tellez, Jimenez, Kelly, O’Neill, Knizner
Salvador Perez suffered a left hamstring strain while scoring a run in today’s 8-4 Royals victory over the Rays. Perez scored from first base on a MJ Melendez double, but the extra effort was costly for the veteran catcher, and a trip to the injured list now seems likely. The time lost will depend on the grade of Perez’s strain, and manager Matt Quartraro told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that the club will have more information on Monday.
An injury to Perez just adds to a nightmare of a season for the Royals, as they are a measly 27-67 after today’s win. Perez is hitting .258/.299/.444 with 15 home runs over 345 plate apperances, translating to below-average (97 wRC+) overall offense for the 33-year-old backstop. It represents a dropoff from Perez’s usual production, yet he remains one of the best bats on a Royals team that has almost entirely underachieved. Melendez and Freddy Fermin seem likely to take over catching duties in the event of Perez hitting the IL, and if you’re wondering if the injury might impact Perez’s trade value, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo already stated last month that Perez isn’t going anywhere.
More from the two Central divisions…
- The Brewers were expecting Rowdy Tellez back from the 10-day IL this coming Tuesday, but the first baseman suffered another injury while shagging fly balls prior to today’s game. As manager Craig Counsell told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak and other reporters, Tellez was trying to make a catch when he caught his left ring finger between the seams of the outfield wall padding. The result was a broken fingertip, a torn nail, and an estimated 3-4 more weeks on the injured list. Tellez had been sidelined with forearm inflammation, and he was looking to rebound from a nasty slump that had dropped his numbers to .213/.285/.388 over 288 PA. First base/DH was already expected to be a target area for the Brewers heading into the trade deadline, and Tellez’s extended absence now only increases the club’s need for some extra corner power.
- Eloy Jimenez will be out of the White Sox lineup for at least “the next few days” due to a groin injury, manager Pedro Grifol told MLB.com and other media. Jimenez had to make an early exit from today’s game due to the injury, and testing will determine the severity or if Jimenez might be headed for the 10-day IL. The slugger already missed around three weeks earlier this season while recovering from an appendectomy, and a variety of injuries have limited Jimenez’s playing time over his five Major League seasons. Over 259 PA for Chicago this season, Jimenez has 12 home runs and a .269/.313/.463 slash line.
- In better injury news for the White Sox, Joe Kelly threw a bullpen session today and plans to return from the 15-day IL during the Sox/Mets series that begins on Tuesday, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. Kelly was placed on the IL due to elbow inflammation on July 5, so he’ll return after a minimal stint. Secondary metrics indicate that Kelly is drastically outperforming his uninspiring 4.82 ERA, so some better bottom-line numbers over the next couple of weeks might turn Kelly into a trade chip for the White Sox at the deadline.
- The Cardinals activated catcher Andrew Knizner off the 10-day IL today, and manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that the club will continue to carry three catchers on the roster since it wants to see more of youngster Ivan Herrera. It remains to be seen how the Cardinals will split the playing time between Willson Contreras, Knizner, and Herrera, but Knizner was the only member of the trio to see action in the Cards’ 8-4 win over the Nationals today. In other St. Louis injury news, Tyler O’Neill might return from the IL on Tuesday if he emerges in good form after a Triple-A rehab game today.
Notable Draft Signings: 7/16/23
Here are the latest signings from near the top of the amateur draft board. For more on these and other prospects, check out the pre-draft rankings and scouting reports from Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.
- The White Sox announced deals with 17 of their 20 draft picks, including first-rounder Jacob Gonzalez. The Sox specified that Gonzalez signed for a $3.9MM bonus, less than the $4,488,600 slot price attached to the 15th overall pick. The pundits had a pretty wide range of opinion on Gonzalez, with McDaniel ranking him sixth in the draft class and Fangraphs placing the Ole Miss shortstop 37th. Gonzalez has an unusual swing that had led to some disagreement on his ceiling as a hitter, though he is considered at least average in every tool except his below-average speed.
- The Reds signed eight more of their picks, led by second-round pick Ty Floyd. Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link) reports that Floyd received a $2,097,500 bonus, which is below the $2,255,100 slot price for the 38th overall selection. McDaniel had Floyd ranked highest at 42nd on his list, calling the LSU right-hander “a strong athlete with an above-average slider” and “easy plus velo” on a fastball that can hit 98mph and usually sits in the 94-95mph range. The big fastball alone projects Floyd as at least an intriguing bullpen arm for the future, and his slider and changeup at least offer promise as plus pitches.
Reds Have Shown Interest In White Sox’s Starters
The Reds have been in contact with the White Sox as they search for rotation help, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Threads). Specific targets aren’t reported, though it’s not hard to infer which players could be of interest.
Lucas Giolito is arguably the sport’s most apparent trade candidate. The right-hander is an impending free agent and has a 3.45 ERA through 19 starts. He’s striking out a little more than a quarter of opponents against a modest 7.3% walk rate. While Giolito’s velocity and whiffs are down marginally from a 2019-21 stretch that saw him post a 3.47 ERA in 72 appearances, he has rebounded nicely from a down 2022 season.
With the White Sox now 17 games below .500, they’re predictably approaching the deadline as sellers. The Sox aren’t expected to make a strong run at re-signing Giolito, whose upcoming free agent deal is likely to easily eclipse Chicago’s franchise-record $75MM guarantee for Andrew Benintendi.
He’d be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer that would afford Chicago draft compensation if he signs elsewhere. They’ll almost certainly receive more compelling prospect offers in the next couple weeks though. The Dodgers have already checked in and virtually every contender figures to be in touch with Chicago GM Rick Hahn before August 1.
Giolito is playing this season on a $10.4MM arbitration salary. Around $3.35MM will be remaining from the deadline onwards. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has indicated the club has the payroll flexibility to accommodate midseason trade targets. Rotation help is the obvious area to do so.
While Giolito would be the more appealing target for other teams, Chicago seems likely to move veteran righty Lance Lynn as well. The 36-year-old carries a career-high 6.03 ERA over 103 innings but has much better strikeout and walk marks. Lynn is fanning hitters at a strong 27.9% clip against an average 8.1% walk rate. His biggest issue, an MLB-worst 22 home runs allowed, could be a tough fit at Cincinnati’s very hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Still, the durability Lynn provides would be welcome for a Reds’ rotation light on experience at present.
Lynn is making $18.5MM this season. His contract contains an $18MM club option that seems likely to be bought out for $1MM. With the two-time All-Star likely headed to free agency next winter, the Sox figure to look for trade possibilities this month. That’s also true of Mike Clevinger, whose contract contains a $12MM mutual option the team will likely buy out for $4MM. They could be hard-pressed to find interest in Clevinger considering the fairly lofty buyout price and biceps inflammation that has had him on the injured list for a month.
There’s less urgency on either Dylan Cease or Michael Kopech. Both pitchers are eligible for arbitration through 2025. The asking price on either player — Cease especially — would be significantly higher than what the Sox would expect for even their top rental in Giolito. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested earlier this week that Chicago could be willing to hear offers on Kopech but wasn’t interested in parting with Cease.
Cincinnati is surely in contact with a number of teams as they explore rotation possibilities. Tonight’s 1-0 loss to the Brewers dropped them into a tie with Milwaukee for first place in the NL Central. They’re still positioned as deadline buyers, of course, with a rotation that ranked 28th in ERA (5.69) entering play Friday standing as the big concern. Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene are on the injured list. Cincinnati has rookie Andrew Abbott at the top of the rotation, followed by Graham Ashcraft, Ben Lively, Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver. The latter two pitchers have struggled.
The White Sox’ Quietly Dominant Trade Chip
Earlier in the week, I took a look at how the Cubs had scored big in minor league free agency and are now left with the quandary of what to do with Mark Leiter Jr. — a breakout reliever at age 32 with three years of remaining club control beyond the current season. They could sell high or hold onto him in hopes that the breakout is both legitimate and sustainable into his mid-30s. Across town, the White Sox had similarly good fortune in minor league free agency, but there’s no question of how they’ll proceed in the coming weeks.
At some point between now and Aug. 1, it’s extraordinarily likely Keynan Middleton will be traded.
Angels fans are surely familiar with the 29-year-old Middleton, who looked like a bullpen mainstay in Anaheim earlier in his career before injuries — most notably Tommy John surgery — derailed his trajectory. Fans of other clubs, however, may have never had Middleton on their radars and might be surprised to learn that he’s in his final season of club control and will be a free agent this winter. Middleton collected five years of service time prior to the 2023 season — much of it coming on the Major League injured list — despite entering the current season with just 143 2/3 big leagues innings under his belt. As such, he’s a pure rental on a fourth-place White Sox team whose GM has been candid about the team’s chances and the possibility of selling at the deadline.
At the time of his signing, Middleton didn’t command much attention. It was a minor league deal for a reliever issued by a club that had several high-priced veterans in the bullpen (Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Aaron Bummer, Jake Diekman). Middleton hadn’t had big league success since his initial run with the Angels in 2017-19 and looked like a pure depth move. Even when the Sox selected him to the 40-man roster in mid-April, at a time when both Hendriks and Kelly were on the injured list, it seemed like he could just be a short-term stopgap until the Sox got healthier. And perhaps that was indeed the initial plan, but Middleton has become an indispensable member of the bullpen and emerged as a legitimate trade chip.
It’s only 32 innings of work so far, but the right-hander owns a tidy 3.09 ERA on the season. That’s a solid number on its own, but the underlying numbers are even more encouraging. Middleton averaged 94.8 mph with his heater in a short look with the D-backs last year but is back up to 96 mph in 2023 — much healthier and much closer to the 96.8 mph he averaged with the Angels prior to surgery.
There’s far more to like about Middleton than a simple resurgence in velocity. He’s fanned a hefty 31.1% of his opponents, issued walks at a slightly better-than-average 8.3% clip and racked up grounders at a huge 56.4% rate. Even more impressive are his 17.8% swinging-strike rate and 38.4% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate — top-of-the-scale numbers that rank sixth and 14th, respectively, among the 338 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 30 innings during the 2023 season. This has been the best stretch of Middleton’s career, and while the sample is small, he’s arguably been one of the sport’s best relievers in 2023.
The one knock is his 1.41 HR/9 mark, but that’s driven in part by a cozy home ballpark and a 26.3% homer-to-flyball rate that’s bound to regress; in the past decade there have only been 38 instances (out of a possible 4550) where a pitcher with at least 30 innings pitched has run a homer-to-flyball rate that high. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize in the 12-13% range for most pitchers over a large enough sample. Since 2013, the league-average homer-to-flyball rate for pitchers has fallen between 9.5% (a clear outlier season in 2014) and 15.7% (during the juiced ball season of 2019).
Skeptics might point out that Middleton has struggled over the past month, and it’s a valid concern. He’s been tagged for nine earned runs in his past 10 2/3 innings, due largely to yielding four of the five homers he’s surrendered on the season. It’s also worth pointing out, however, that the rest of Middleton’s profile during that time remains largely unchanged. He’s fanned 27.7% of his opponents, walked 8.5% of them and compiled a 55.2% ground-ball rate. Opponents are also averaging just 86.2 mph off the bat against him during that slump; he’s still rarely giving up hard contact — it’s just that a disproportionate amount of the hard contact he has yielded has resulted in a round-tripper. (For what it’s worth, four of the five homers he’s allowed this year have come in his hitter-friendly home park, too.)
There’s some degree of volatility with all relief pitching, however, and this season Middleton has done pretty much everything modern front offices love to see at a better-than-average (often elite) rate. He throws hard, misses bats at elite levels, limits walks at an average clip and ranks in the 94th percentile of pitchers (min. 30 innings) in ground-ball rate. It’s a recipe for success that checks a lot of boxes. Add in that he originally signed on a low-cost minor league deal and would be affordable for even teams with luxury tax concerns, and Middleton only sounds more appealing.
Of course, given the limited track record coming into the season and the fact that he’s a pure rental, Middleton isn’t going to fetch any club a true top-tier prospect on his own. But we regularly see teams pay relatively steep prices for relievers at the deadline, even for rental arms. The demand for Middleton should be strong, and on his own he should still be able to net the Sox a solid prospect or perhaps a younger player with some club control but no real spot on his current team’s roster.
There are multiple paths for the White Sox to explore as they mull their options with Middleton, but nearly all roads seem like they’ll lead to a trade of some sort. And while Middleton might first seem underwhelming to the fanbase that acquires him, he could wind up being one of the most impactful arms moved at this year’s deadline if he can sustain this level of pitching in the season’s final two and a half months.
Dodgers Have Shown Interest In Lucas Giolito
The Dodgers are among the teams showing interest in White Sox righty Lucas Giolito, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s a natural fit, given the Dodgers’ need for rotation reinforcements and the White Sox’ status as likely sellers of short-term pieces. Giolito is a free agent at season’s end.
Giolito, who’ll turn 29 tomorrow, figures to be of interest to a wide variety of contending clubs. He’s in the midst of a strong season, is earning a $10.4MM salary this season, and has a strong track record dating back to his 2019 breakout. Similarly, the Dodgers figure to cast a wide net as they survey the trade market for starting pitching help. While it’s certainly of note that they’ve shown some interest in Giolito, there’s also no indication that there have been any advanced talks for the righty or that he, in particular, is being pursued more aggressively than the many other starters expected to popular the trade market. In some regards, it’d actually be more surprising to learn that the Dodgers weren’t interested in Giolito, given how logical the pairing is.
Los Angeles’ starting staff has been ravaged by injuries this season. The Dodgers have already lost Dustin May for the season (flexor surgery), and they’ve endured lengthy absences from each of Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and struggling offseason signee Noah Syndergaard. Prospect Ryan Pepiot won the fifth starter’s job in camp this spring but suffered an oblique injury at the end of camp that has kept him out for the entire first half. Ace Clayton Kershaw hit the injured list late last month due to discomfort in his left shoulder. They knew coming into the year that Walker Buehler would be out until at least September after undergoing Tommy John surgery on Aug. 23 last summer.
The Dodgers have tapped into their pitching-rich system to patch things over, already calling up top prospects Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone for their big league debuts. Miller and Sheehan are both in the rotation at the moment, as is 26-year-old righty Michael Grove, who entered the ’23 season with just 29 1/3 big league innings under his belt. Grove has been tagged for a 6.89 ERA, however, struggling at a similar level to the previously mentioned Syndergaard (7.16 ERA in 55 1/3 innings).
Giolito isn’t missing bats at the same level as his 2019-20 peak, when he posted a massive 32.7% strikeout rate, but his results are in line with his best prior seasons. He’s sitting on a 3.45 ERA with a strong 25.3% strikeout rate and similarly impressive 7.4% walk rate. With the exception of last year’s 4.90 ERA, which looks like a clear outlier, Giolito has posted an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53 every season since 2019. Overall, he carries a 3.80 ERA in his past 701 2/3 big league innings. The right-hander is also averaging just under six innings per start in 2023, so he’d help give a break to the bullpen of any team to which he’s traded.
The White Sox figure to seek a strong return in any trade for Giolito. He’s one of the top arms on the market — arguably the top arm — and is a clear qualifying offer candidate at season’s end if they don’t trade him. As a 29-year-old free agent with a strong and durable track record, Giolito would be a slam dunk to reject that offer and hit the open market in search of a long-term, likely nine-figure deal. In the event that he signed elsewhere, the White Sox would receive a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B in the 2024 draft (roughly in the mid-70s). In order to trade the righty, the ChiSox would need to feel they’re receiving greater value than the value of that theoretical 2024 draft selection.
Giolito recently landed in the top spot on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 deadline trade candidates — a reflection both of his on-field value and of the simple likelihood of him being traded in the next 19 days. (He also placed fourth on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings late last month.) The South Siders initially only planned to make rental players available, but recent reports have suggested that they’re now open to offers on the majority of their roster, save for the young core of Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn. In either scenario, Giolito figures to be available and among the likeliest stars to change hands in the next few weeks.