Pirates To Sign Aroldis Chapman
The Pirates are in agreement with Aroldis Chapman, as first reported by Francys Romero (X link). It’s a one-year, $10.5MM guarantee, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on X). Chapman is a Wasserman client. The deal is pending a physical; Pittsburgh will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move once the contract is finalized.
Chapman, who turns 36 next month, lands a one-year free agent deal for the second straight offseason. Limited to a fairly modest $3.75MM guarantee from the Royals a year ago, he lands a raise on the heels of an impressive season that culminated in his second World Series win. Chapman turned in a 3.09 ERA over 58 1/3 innings, striking out a laughable 41.4% of opposing hitters. Among relievers with 50+ innings, only Orioles star closer Félix Bautista punched hitters out more frequently.
The lefty split his year between two teams. He turned in dominant results for three months in Kansas City. Over 29 2/3 frames with the Royals, he pitched to a 2.45 ERA with a 43.4% strikeout rate. That production and his affordable salary made Chapman arguably the top rental reliever on the trade market. K.C. moved early, sending him to the Rangers in a one-for-one deal for former first-round pick Cole Ragans at the end of June.
It’s the kind of result that rebuilding teams envision when signing a veteran to a one-year deal. Ragans had an excellent 12-start run to close the year and looks like a potential mid-rotation or better pitcher whom Kansas City controls for five more seasons. Texas knew they were getting a short-term acquisition, but Chapman provided them a much needed high-leverage bullpen arm.
Over 29 regular season innings in Arlington, he posted a 3.72 ERA while fanning nearly 40% of batters faced. Chapman saved four games and picked up six holds in front of nominal closer José Leclerc. He continued to pitch in meaningful games during the Rangers’ run to the first title in franchise history. He picked up six more holds in nine playoff appearances, totaling eight innings of two-run ball. That came with only six strikeouts and five walks, but Chapman wiggled out of trouble more often than not in October.
It was frequently an adventure when Chapman took the mound. While he has never had great command, his control has reached particularly worrisome levels over the last three years. He walked 14.5% of batters faced last year, the fifth-highest rate among pitchers to log at least 50 innings. That was nevertheless the southpaw’s lowest walk percentage since 2020.
While Chapman is going to hand out his share of free baserunners, he remains one of the sport’s toughest pitchers to hit when he’s around the strike zone. His four-seam fastball averaged 99 MPH last year, while his sinker sat above 101 MPH. That’s above the 97.5 MPH he averaged on the four-seam during his final season with the Yankees. His slider, which had averaged between 85-86 MPH for the previous few years, jumped to 88.1 MPH. That high-octane arsenal translated to plenty of whiffs. Only Robert Stephenson and Bautista had a lower opponents’ contact rate. Hitters put the bat on the ball on only three-fifths of their swings against Chapman.
The Bucs will live with the free passes to add that kind of swing-and-miss potential to the back of their bullpen. David Bednar is entrenched in the ninth inning. Chapman will work in a setup capacity with the ability to step into the ninth should Bednar suffer an injury. He joins Ryan Borucki as left-handed bullpen options for skipper Derek Shelton. Colin Holderman projects as Pittsburgh’s top righty setup arm.
MLBTR predicted Chapman to receive a two-year, $24MM pact. He’ll instead settle for one season. The $10.5MM salary makes him the highest-paid player on the Pittsburgh roster this year (after accounting for cash considerations from the Mariners and Braves paying down Marco Gonzales’ $12MM deal). He’s the fourth player to ink a one-year free agent deal with the Pirates this winter, joining Martín Pérez, Andrew McCutchen and Rowdy Tellez.
The deal brings Pittsburgh’s projected player payroll around $79MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The low-payroll club opened last season with roughly $73MM in commitments, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’re now set to raise spending this year, as GM Ben Cherington suggested at the beginning of the offseason, although it remains to be seen if the front office has any more room at its disposal. Pittsburgh could still seek rotation help and potentially a veteran option at second base, where they have a handful of young players (e.g. Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Ji Hwan Bae) set to compete for at-bats.
Owner Bob Nutting suggested over the weekend he anticipated the team staying in the playoff mix for the entire season. Pittsburgh hasn’t reached the postseason since 2015 and hasn’t advanced to the Division Series in a decade. If that doesn’t materialize, Chapman could find himself on the rental trade market for a second straight summer.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
D-Backs Sign Dylan File, Dakota Chalmers To Minor League Deals
The Diamondbacks have signed right-handers Dylan File and Dakota Chalmers to minor league contracts, according to their Triple-A team in Reno. Chalmers will get an invite to big league Spring Training.
File returns to affiliated ball after a brief stint in Korea. A 21st-round draftee by the Brewers in 2017, he secured a spot on the 40-man roster three years later. Elbow surgery limited him during the 2021 campaign and Milwaukee outrighted from the roster the following May without ever calling him to the majors.
The 27-year-old signed with the KBO’s Doosan Bears last winter but only made two starts. His season debut was delayed when he was hit with a comebacker in preseason play. Not long after making his return, he was diagnosed with elbow soreness (link via Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap News). The Bears released him in June to sign left-hander Brandon Waddell.
Chalmers, also 27, was a third-round pick by the A’s in 2015. Oakland traded him to the Twins for Fernando Rodney three years later. Like File, he was added to a 40-man roster (Minnesota’s in 2019) to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft but never got to the big leagues. The Cubs nabbed Chalmers off waivers during the 2021 campaign but ran him through outright waivers shortly thereafter. The 6’3″ righty has a 4.83 ERA while striking out just over a quarter of opponents across parts of seven seasons in the minors.
Orioles Acquire Tyler Nevin
The Orioles announced they’ve reacquired infielder Tyler Nevin in a trade with the Tigers. Baltimore sends cash to Detroit, who had designated the right-handed hitter for assignment last week. The O’s now have 39 players on the 40-man roster.
Nevin heads back to Baltimore after a year away. During the 2022-23 offseason, the Orioles had designated Nevin for assignment and traded him to the Tigers for cash. The 26-year-old spent the year on the Detroit 40-man roster but worked mostly in Triple-A. He posted excellent numbers in the minors, where he raked at a .326/.400/.543 clip with 15 homers through 385 plate appearances.
That brings Nevin to a .276/.355/.464 slash in more than 1000 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He hasn’t found the same success in scattered looks against MLB pitching. He’s a .203/.310/.301 hitter in 105 big league contests over the past three seasons. Nevin played in 64 games with the Orioles from 2021-22 and got into 41 games as a Tiger.
The O’s are clearly familiar with the former Rockies draftee. With a pair of openings on the 40-man, they’ll bring him back for a minimal cost. Nevin is out of minor league options, so he’d have to break camp with the MLB team if the O’s don’t want to again DFA him. That could be a tough task on a team with plenty of infield depth, but there’s little harm for Baltimore in giving him a look in Spring Training.
Cardinals, Tommy Edman Avoid Arbitration With Two-Year Deal
7:40pm: Edman is guaranteed $16.5MM, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link).
3:30pm: The Cardinals and utility player Tommy Edman have avoided arbitration by signing a two-year deal, per a club announcement. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported on the agreement prior to the club making it official. The financials of the deal have not yet been publicly reported. Edman was one of 22 players who didn’t agree to a salary before the filing deadline, though he’s now the third of that group to subsequently ink a new pact, joining Cionel Pérez of the Orioles and Casey Mize of the Tigers.
Edman, 29 in May, first qualified for arbitration a year ago and made $4.2MM in 2023. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $6.5MM this year. As mentioned, he and the club didn’t agree on a new salary by the filing deadline, with Edman filing at $6.95MM and the club at $6.5MM. They would have been slated for a hearing in the weeks to come but have instead agreed to a deal that will cover his 2024 and 2025 seasons, buying out his final two arb years. Edman will be slated for free agency after this deal runs its course.
Like many clubs, the Cards are a “file-and-trial” team, meaning they choose not to continue negotiations on one-year deals after the filing deadline even though such talks are allowed. Last week, Edman said he hadn’t yet heard anything about a multi-year deal but expected talks to occur before the hearing. It appears those talks did end up taking place and were fruitful enough to avoid a hearing, as well preventing Edman from having to worry about arbitration at all next winter.
Over his career, Edman has moved all over the diamond, having played all three outfield positions and the three infield spots to the left of first base, receiving strong grades for his glovework wherever he goes. He has hit .265/.319/.408 in his career, leading to a 99 wRC+, which indicates he’s been a hair below league average. He has stolen 106 bases in 123 tries. FanGraphs considers him to have provided 15.3 wins above replacement in 596 career games.
In 2024, it’s expected that he will be the center fielder on a regular basis, with Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker likely to be flanking him most of the time. However, Edman also spent significant time at shortstop last year. The club is hoping Masyn Winn will take over the shortstop job going forward, but he’s not yet 22 years old and hit .172/.230/.238 in his first 137 major league plate appearances. It’s also possible an injury will create the need for Edman to move somewhere else, with Nootbaar or Dylan Carlson perhaps taking over in center.
Edman underwent arthroscopic wrist surgery in October and it still rehabbing from that procedure. As of last week, he hadn’t yet been cleared to make contact when swinging a bat but was “very confident” that he would be ready for the start of the season.
Astros Designate Matt Gage For Assignment
The Astros have designated left-hander Matt Gage for assignment, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. This move opens up a roster spot for left-hander Josh Hader, whose signing has now been officially announced by the club.
Gage, 31 next month, has been on Houston’s roster just under a year, having been claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays in February of 2023. He spent the year as frequently-optioned bullpen depth, making five appearances in the majors with a 2.70 earned run average. His 34 Triple-A appearances didn’t go as well, as he posted a 4.58 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He struck out 23.4% of batters at that level but also walked 12%.
The southpaw had a better year in 2022, tossing 42 1/3 Triple-A innings while with the Jays, posting a 2.34 ERA for Buffalo. He paired a 27.4% strikeout rate with a 9.5% walk rate and also kept the ball on the ground at a 47% clip. He also made 11 big league appearances for the Jays with a 1.38 ERA.
The Astros will now have a week to trade Gage or try to pass him through waivers. Left-hander relief tends to always be in demand around the league and he still has an option remaining, which will enhance his appeal. His 2023 numbers for Sugar Land weren’t amazing, but clubs will surely take the hitter-friendly setting into account.
For the Astros, their situational lefty group takes a hit with Gage’s departure. Hader will be in the closer’s role for the foreseeable future, with Bennett Sousa and Parker Mushinski as the other southpaw relievers still on the roster.
Angels Sign Robert Stephenson To Three-Year Contract
The Angels announced the signing of reliever Robert Stephenson to a three-year contract on Tuesday afternoon. Stephenson, a client of Apex Baseball, is reportedly guaranteed $33MM. There’s also a conditional team option for the 2027 campaign based on Stephenson’s elbow health. If the pitcher suffers an elbow ligament injury that causes him to miss 130 consecutive days, the Halos would have a $2.5MM option on his services for a fourth season. He will otherwise make $11MM annually over the next three years.
Stephenson, 31 next month, was the top remaining free agent reliever once Josh Hader came off the board. Within a couple hours of Hader agreeing to a five-year, $95MM pact with the Astros, Stephenson decided to join him in the AL West.
A three-year guarantee for Stephenson would have seemed outlandish six months ago. Until last summer, he looked like a volatile middle innings arm. A former first-round pick and highly-regarded prospect with the Reds, Stephenson struggled early in his career as a starter. He moved to relief full-time in 2019 and had an up-and-down trajectory.
The 6’3″ righty turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in 2019 and ’21 before a rough 2022 campaign. He split the year between the Rockies and Pirates, allowing a 5.43 ERA through 58 innings. Stephenson opened last season with 14 innings of nine-run ball in Pittsburgh.
An early June trade sending him to the Rays for infielder Alika Williams didn’t result in a ton of fanfare. It wound up being one of the more adept rental acquisitions of the summer, though, one that completely changed his fortunes in free agency.
Stephenson was arguably the most dominant pitcher in the majors for the season’s final four months. During his time in Tampa Bay, he worked to a 2.35 ERA across 38 1/3 innings. He punched out a laughable 42.9% of hitters while walking fewer than 6% of batters faced. Among relievers with 30+ innings after June 1, only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks punched hitters out at a higher rate.
Even that doesn’t capture how overpowering he was on a pitch-for-pitch basis. Opponents whiffed more often than they made contact. Hitters put the bat on the ball on 49.3% of their swings against Stephenson in Tampa Bay. That wasn’t simply the best mark in MLB. It was almost 10 percentage points lower than anyone else over that stretch. Chapman, against whom batters made contact on 59% of their swings, was second.
It’s not hard to pinpoint a reason for that excellence. Before he went to Tampa Bay, he paired a near-97 MPH four-seam fastball with a mid-80s slider. With the Rays, he leaned mostly on an upper-80s breaking ball that Statcast classifies as a cutter. Opponents couldn’t do anything with that pitch. They swung through it nearly three-fifths of the time and hit .101 in 79 at-bats. By the season’s final month, he was using the pitch at a near-75% clip.
Whether Stephenson adopted the cutter from scratch or just found a way to add a couple ticks of velocity to his former slider isn’t clear. In any event, it’s a pitch he’ll surely lean on frequently in Orange County. The Angels can’t expect him to maintain quite the level he showed in Tampa Bay — that’d be a tough ask for anyone — but they’re surely anticipating him stepping in as a quality high-leverage arm.
That’s not without risk. Stellar as Stephenson’s finish was, his time in Tampa Bay comprised fewer than 40 innings. From his 2019 bullpen transfer through his stint in Pittsburgh, he tallied a 4.53 ERA in 192 2/3 frames between three teams. Some of that can be attributed to playing in hitter-friendly home venues in Cincinnati and Colorado, but he clearly wouldn’t have been a candidate for a three-year pact had he not finished the way he did. His 26.9% strikeout rate over those four-plus seasons was a solid but hardly elite number.
It’s the first significant acquisition of the offseason for the Halos. While Stephenson is their fourth bullpen pickup overall, the other three signings were modest one-year investments. Luis García landed a $4.75MM deal, while Adam Cimber inked a $1.65MM pact after being non-tendered by Toronto. Adam Kolarek, who signed for $900K, was already outrighted off the 40-man roster.
Stephenson will work in the late innings. He doesn’t have any closing experience, so the Halos could elect to leave last year’s key bullpen pickup, Carlos Estévez, in the ninth inning. The pair of righties should take the bulk of the most important work late in games. García and Cimber will occupy middle relief roles, while Ben Joyce and José Soriano could hold setup jobs.
It’s a high-octane group built around some of the hardest throwers in the sport. Joyce averaged nearly 101 MPH on his heater and famously was clocked as high as 105 MPH in college. Estévez and García sit north of 97 MPH on average. Soriano and Stephenson have upper 90s velocity in their back pocket as well, even if both lean more frequently on their breaking stuff.
New manager Ron Washington should appreciate the stable of power arsenals at his disposal, although the Halos likely need to add another left-hander to the mix. That could put the finishing touch on the bullpen, yet there’s still plenty of work for GM Perry Minasian and his front office.
The Halos haven’t made any acquisitions on the offensive side to compensate for Shohei Ohtani’s departure. That’s also true in the rotation. They’ve looked for ways to add a top-end starter. In addition to scouring the trade market, the Halos have reportedly shown interest in defending NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell.
There should still be plenty of payroll room at their disposal. Roster Resource projected the 2024 player payroll around $153MM before the Stephenson signing. Evenly distributing his salaries pushes that around $164MM. The Halos opened last season with a payroll at roughly $212MM, as calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ll still be almost $50MM shy of that mark. They’re also nowhere near next year’s $237MM base luxury tax threshold. Stephenson’s $11MM average annual value will push the Angels’ projected CBT number to roughly $179MM.
The contract comes in just below MLBTR’s prediction of four years and $36MM. It’s in line with the going rate for high-leverage relievers with some inconsistency in their career track record, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Stephenson’s deal generally aligns with those signed by Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM), Rafael Montero (three years, $34.5MM), Joe Jiménez (three years, $26.5MM), former Angel Reynaldo López (three years, $30MM) and Jordan Hicks (four years, $44MM) over the last two offseasons.
@Jolly_Olive first reported the Angels and Stephenson had agreed to a three-year deal exceeding $30MM with a 2027 option. Sam Blum of the Athletic reported the $33MM guarantee. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the $2.5MM conditional option based on Stephenson’s arm health. The Associated Press reported the 130-inning provision and the evenly distributed salaries.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
White Sox Sign John Brebbia
9:41AM: Brebbia will earn $5.5MM in guaranteed money, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (links to X) has the breakdown of terms. Brebbia earns a $4MM base salary for 2024, and there is a $6MM mutual option for 2025 that includes a $1.5MM buyout. Up to $1MM in incentive bonuses are also available each season, and Brebbia can start unlocking those bonuses if and when he hits the 45-appearance threshold.
8:58AM: The White Sox have signed right-hander John Brebbia, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X). Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times adds that Brebbia inked a one-year deal. Brebbia is represented by Icon Sports Management.
Newly-hired White Sox senior pitching advisor Brian Bannister undoubtedly had some influence in the signing, as Bannister spent the previous four seasons as the Giants’ director of pitching and oversaw Brebbia’s usage as a versatile bullpen weapon. Brebbia worked as an opener, middle reliever, and setup man in San Francisco, posting a 3.83 ERA over 134 appearances and 124 2/3 innings while also delivering a solid 6.7% walk rate and 23% strikeout rate.
That latter statistic is perhaps a little misleading, as Brebbia had only a 18.8% strikeout rate during his 68 innings in 2022, sandwiched between much higher K% rates in the smaller sample sizes of his other two seasons. Brebbia tossed only 18 1/3 innings in 2021 since he was recovering from a June 2020 Tommy John surgery, and he also missed over 2.5 months of last season due to a lat strain.
A 30th-round pick for the Yankees in the 2011 draft, Brebbia was a bit of a late bloomer who didn’t make his MLB debut until when he was just shy of his 27th birthday, as a member of the 2017 Cardinals. Brebbia pitched well out of the Cards’ bullpen in his first three big league seasons, but in the wake of his TJ surgery, St. Louis opted to non-tender him following the 2020 season. For his career, the 33-year-old Brebbia has a 3.42 ERA over 299 2/3 innings with St. Louis and San Francisco.
The White Sox had a lot of holes to fill in both the rotation and their bullpen this winter, and GM Chris Getz has been busy on that front in acquiring the likes of Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen, Michael Soroka, and Tim Hill, in addition to a number of other pitchers with MLB experience on minor league deals. Since Aaron Bummer was traded to the Braves, Brebbia might step into the setup role that Bummer previously held in Chicago, even if it isn’t a perfect one-to-one match since Bummer is a southpaw.
It also stands to reason that Brebbia could be deployed as he was in San Francisco, rather than strictly in a setup capacity. Since Gregory Santos is recovering from elbow inflammation and might not be ready for the start of Spring Training, Brebbia might even nab a few save opportunities if Santos hits any delays or if the White Sox simply decide to take it easy with their prospective closer.
Yomiuri Giants Sign Rougned Odor
Veteran infielder Rougned Odor has signed with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, according to Hochi Sports. Odor had been a free agent since he was released by the Padres back in July.
Signed to a minor league deal last winter, Odor made San Diego’s Opening Day roster and appeared in 59 big league games, hitting .203/.299/.355 over 157 plate appearances. He acted as a left-handed hitting complement to the Padres’ largely right-handed infield group, and also chipped in at several positions around the diamond. Odor spent most of his time at his traditional second base spot, but also saw some playing time as a third baseman, and played some first base and right field for the first time in his MLB career.
Best known for his long stint as the Rangers’ everyday second baseman, Odor hit 127 homers over 2869 PA with Texas from 2015-19. His power was essentially the only plus within an otherwise inconsistent offensive approach that included few walks and an increasingly large number of strikeouts, and Odor hasn’t posted an above-average (better than 100) wRC+ since the 2016 season. For his career as a whole, Odor has an 85 wRC+ and a .230/.288/.422 slash line to go along with 178 career home runs.
The lack of production stood out given that Odor had signed a six-year, $49.5MM extension with the Rangers prior to the 2017 season. Texas ended up trading Odor to the Yankees prior to the 2021 campaign, and Odor then caught on with the Orioles for the 2022 season. Odor received some praise for his veteran leadership on a young O’s team that broke out to win 83 games, signalling the end of the club’s long rebuilding process.
Though he already has ten Major League seasons on his resume, Odor is still a couple of weeks shy of his 30th birthday. He’ll now start his next decade with a new chapter in his baseball career as he heads to Japan, and whether he shows enough to catch the eye of Major League scouts for a future return to North America remains to be seen. At the very least, Odor has secured a larger guaranteed payday for himself for 2024 than he would have found in the big leagues, as the infielder would’ve been limited to minor league offers.
Astros Sign Josh Hader To Five-Year Contract
The Astros announced they have signed left-hander Josh Hader. It is reportedly a five-year, $95MM contract. The deal has no deferrals, which makes it the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher in terms of present-day value. Edwin Díaz signed a $102MM deal with the Mets prior to last season, setting a new benchmark for a reliever, but there was some deferred money that dropped the present-day value and competitive balance tax calculation to around $93MM.
Hader, a CAA Sports client, will earn $19MM annually through the 2028 season. The southpaw can also collect an additional $1MM bonus for winning the Reliever of the Year Award, an honor he has already received three times in his career. The deal contains a full no-trade clause and no options, team or player alike.
On Thursday, Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Astros were “making a push” to sign the five-time All-Star. It came as little surprise that GM Dana Brown was looking to supplement a bullpen that lost several key players to free agency, namely Héctor Neris, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek. In addition, 2023 trade deadline acquisition Kendall Graveman is likely to miss the entire 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That said, Brown recently downplayed his desire to add another reliever. After the news broke of Graveman’s surgery, the GM told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that the Astros were “still in the market for relievers,” but also said, “We got some internal candidates that we really feel good about.” In a similar vein, he told Rome, “We just may have to get one more body or one of our guys internally will step up.”
On top of that, Brown told reporters during the GM Meetings in November that he didn’t have “a ton” of payroll flexibility to work with. Thus, Astros fans began to brace themselves for a slow offseason, and rumors even began to emerge that the team could trade All-Stars Alex Bregman and Framber Valdez
In hindsight, the executive was clearly keeping his cards close to his chest. After all, signing the top reliever on the market to a record-breaking contract is just about the complete opposite of tightening the purse strings and hoping an internal candidate steps up. Indeed, Hader’s salary brings the Astros over the first luxury tax threshold and dangerously close to the second; according to Roster Resource, their CBT payroll sits at $254.6MM, less than $3MM away from the $257MM threshold. Houston has never paid the luxury tax before, although the team crossed the threshold in 2020 when there were no penalties for doing so.
Because Hader rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres, the Astros will lose their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft, as well as $500,000 in international bonus pool money. However, the extra penalties they could face as Competitive Balance Tax payors won’t kick in until next offseason; if the Astros remain over the CBT threshold throughout 2024 and sign another QO free agent next winter, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool money.
The Astros don’t usually sign free agents with qualifying offers attached to them, just as they don’t usually exceed the CBT threshold. To that end, they don’t often sign $95MM deals. As Rome points out on X, this is the largest free agent contract the club has signed in Jim Crane’s 12-year tenure as owner of the Astros. Evidently, then, Crane and Brown have high hopes for what Hader can bring to the bullpen – and for good reason. The left-hander has long been one of the top relievers in the game. Across seven MLB seasons with the Brewers and Padres, he boasts a 2.50 ERA, 2.27 SIERA, and 165 saves in 190 chances. Since his debut in 2017, no pitcher (min. 5 IP) has struck out batters at a higher rate.
Hader, who turns 30 this April, looked as dominant as ever in 2023, ranking second among qualified NL relievers with a 1.28 ERA. Meanwhile, his Statcast expected ERA ranked third in all of baseball. What’s more, he recorded 33 saves in 61 games, crossing the 30-save threshold for the fourth time in his career. With a hard sinker and mystifying slider, he recorded 85 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings of work.
The presumptive closer will join right-handers Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu at the back of what could be the scariest bullpen in the American League. The Astros ranked fourth in the AL in bullpen ERA last season and first from the trade deadline through the end of the year. Although Houston has parted ways with several key contributors this winter, adding Hader goes a long way toward replenishing what was lost. The three departing relievers, plus Graveman, provided the Astros with 1.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) last season, per FanGraphs. Hader alone was worth 1.7 WAR in 2023 and has averaged 1.94 WAR per 60 games throughout his career. While he cannot cover the workload of four separate pitchers all on his own, he should provide his team with 50-60 valuable innings in the most high-leverage spots. The Astros could still use some more depth to fill out the bullpen, but their back-end trio of Hader, Pressly, and Abreu might be the best one-two-three punch in the game.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the two sides were in agreement on a five-year, $95MM deal with no deferrals. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first relayed the even $19MM salaries, no-trade clause and award bonus. Joel Sherman of The New York Post relayed the $1MM value of that bonus. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported the lack of options or opt-outs.
Cardinals Sign Matt Carpenter To One-Year Deal
The Cardinals announced that they have signed Matt Carpenter to a one-year deal. He was already under contract for 2024 but was released by Atlanta last month, meaning the Cards will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what Atlanta pays. The Cards now have a full 40-man roster.
Carpenter, now 38, returns to the organization where he spent the majority of his career and had his best years. Drafted by the Cardinals in 2009, he was with the big league club from 2011 to 2021. He played in 1,329 games in that time, hitting 155 home runs while slashing .262/.368/.449 for a wRC+ of 125. He made three All-Star teams in that time and won a Silver Slugger award.
His production tailed off in the final three of those seasons, including a batting line of just .169/.305/.275 in 2021. The Cards declined a $18.5MM club option for 2022, taking the $2MM buyout instead. As a free agent, he made a concerted effort to revamp his swing but still had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers that winter. He reported to their Triple-A club and showcased his new swing with tremendous success, slashing .275/.379/.613 in 21 games there.
Despite that excellent showing, the Rangers released him and Carpenter was able to secure a big league deal with the Yankees. For a short amount of time, he was arguably the hottest hitter on the planet. In 47 games in pinstripes, he hit 15 home runs and produced a monster line of .305/.412/.727. Unfortunately, that dazzling display was cut short when he fouled a ball off his foot and suffered a fracture in early August.
The Padres decided to bank on that brief burst, giving Carpenter a two-year, $12MM deal going into 2023, with an opt-out after the first season. But he crashed back down to earth in a big way, hitting .176/.322/.319 last year. He clearly fell out of favor with manager Bob Melvin, getting only 30 plate appearances from late July until the end of the season. Carpenter made the easy decision to lock in $5.5MM for 2024 by exercising his player option.
Though he declined a chance to return to the open market, he would find himself back there anyway. The Padres traded him to Atlanta along with left-hander Ray Kerr, with minor league outfielder Drew Campbell going to the Padres. Atlanta tried to trade Carpenter again but gave up and released him three days later, clearly demonstrating that they only took on his contract as a means of getting Kerr.
The Cardinals will be hoping that Carpenter has another bounceback in him, presumably inserting him into their designated hitter/pinch hitter/bench bat mix. Carpenter played some third base and the outfield corners as recently as 2022 with the Yankees but was mostly a DH with the Padres last year, with 81 innings at first base his only time in the field.
The Cards don’t have a strict DH on the roster, with nine different players having received 27 or more plate appearances in that slot last year. They could opt for a similar approach in 2024. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will have the infield corners spoken for, with Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman perhaps up the middle. Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker are the likely starting outfielders while Dylan Carlson could be the fourth outfielder. Brendan Donovan figures to be in a super utility role until an injury opens up a clear path to playing time.
But there are also elements of uncertainty in that group. Goldschmidt is going into his age-36 season and will turn 37 towards the tail end. Winn isn’t a lock to hold down shortstop after he struggled in his first taste of MLB pitching, which could perhaps move Edman there. But Edman himself underwent offseason wrist surgery and is still recovering. Donovan had flexor tendon surgery late last year. Walker is a former infielder who is still considered to be a poor defender in an outfield corner.
There are many moving pieces and it’s possible that things open up in a way that leaves room for Carpenter to get back on track this year. There are at least some similarities here to the situation with Albert Pujols. He also spent his best years in St. Louis before wandering to other clubs and struggling, but he came back to the Cards in 2022 and had arguably his best performance in over a decade. Carpenter’s overall career doesn’t compare to Pujols and he’s also had some more recent signs of success, but it’s an interesting parallel nonetheless.
Ultimately, it’s a low-risk move for the Cards since Carp is essentially free and isn’t guaranteed any playing time. If his performance is similar to his 2023 work with the Padres, he can simply be released, with Atlanta remaining on the hook for his salary.
Perhaps the person with the most to lose with today’s news is Alec Burleson. He was lined up to be a lefty-swinging bench bat for the club but might now get pushed to the farm, since he still has a full slate of options. He has hit well in the minors but has slashed just .237/.295/.375 in his major league career thus far. Perhaps he will find himself taking regular at-bats in Triple-A, depending on the health and performance of the aforementioned names on the roster.
For Cardinal fans, it could be another year of nostalgia storylines involving some long-tenured players. In 2022, Pujols returned to the club for a farewell tour, with both himself and Yadier Molina retiring after that campaign. Last year, Adam Wainwright‘s attempts to secure his 200th career win before walking away from the game took center stage as the club fell out of contention.