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Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

Nationals Interested In Josh Donaldson

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At least six teams are showing early interest in star free agent Josh Donaldson, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays. The World Series champion Nationals are among the clubs eyeing the third baseman, as are the previously reported Rangers, Phillies and Braves, according to Feinsand.

As those who follow the game know, the Nationals have an even higher-profile free-agent third baseman in Anthony Rendon – hands down the best position player on the market. MLBTR forecasts Rendon will land a $235MM guarantee, which trounces Donaldson’s $75MM projection. Thanks in part to the age difference between the two, the soon-to-be 34-year-old Donaldson lacks the appeal of Rendon, 29, though the former nonetheless remains one of baseball’s most valuable players.

Donaldson, a onetime AL MVP, is coming off a 4.9-fWAR season in which he batted .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs across 659 plate appearances. Atlanta signed the ex-Athletic and Blue Jay to a $23MM guarantee last winter after back-to-back injury-limited campaigns, and it proved to be a brilliant short-term gamble by the Braves. Of course, considering the Braves are one of Washington’s division rivals, the Nationals got plenty of up-close looks at Donaldson in 2019. Unsurprisingly, it seems the Nats came away impressed.

While the Nationals may view Donaldson as a legitimate possibility for their hot corner vacancy, odds are they’d prefer to re-sign Rendon. The big-market, high-spending club has two elite free agents in Rendon and right-hander Stephen Strasburg, and after a championship-winning season, it would be a surprise to see both exit. But if Rendon goes, the Nationals may well turn to the highly accomplished Donaldson as a much less expensive fallback option. Meantime, Donaldson has until Thursday to accept or reject the Braves’ $17.8MM qualifying offer. Turning it down looks like a formality.

NL Notes: Contreras, Banks, Hefner

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We already checked in on some notes from the American League today. Now let’s take a look at the National League.

  • A Willson Contreras trade won’t do the Cubs any favors in 2020, but it’s more preferable than moving any of the team’s other star players, opines Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic. Some rival organizations believe Chicago will indeed make that move this offseason, and there would surely be ample interest in the 27-year-old catcher if the Cubs put him on the market. Contreras is one of baseball’s best offensive catchers, and the Cubs maintain that he’ll improve as a pitch framer, although as Sharma notes, he continues to rate near the bottom of the league in that category. Parting ways with a franchise catcher isn’t ideal, but the Cubs do at least have a strong internal replacement available in Víctor Caratini. The same can’t be said for shortstop, third base, or first base, so a trade of Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, or Anthony Rizzo is tougher to envision. The Cubs don’t have to trade any of those players, Sharma points out, although ownership seems unlikely to green-light a major payroll increase and the MLB pitching staff and minor-league system both need augmenting.
  • Nationals outfield prospect Nick Banks put together a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League. He credits some of that success to Ken Joyce, a hitting coach in the Yankees organization, with whom Banks worked in the AFL, reports Byron Kerr of MASN. A fourth-round draft choice by Washington out of Texas A&M in 2016, Banks hit well across two levels, reaching Double-A Harrisburg this season. He’s never been regarded as a top prospect (topping out as Washington’s #31 prospect after 2016, per Baseball America), although perhaps his solid 2019 season and postseason mechanical work with Joyce will turn some heads in the organization. The 24-year-old will be Rule V eligible if he’s not added to Washington’s 40-man roster by November 20.
  • The Mets are set to interview Twins assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner for their top pitching coach position. Their interest in bringing him on staff isn’t new, as SNY’s Andy Martino (via Twitter) reports that New York offered him an interview for bullpen coach last offseason. The former Mets’ pitcher was then already locked into his position with Minnesota, but he’ll sit down with New York brass this time around for an opportunity to lead the entire pitching staff.

MLBTR Poll: Nats’ Top Two Free Agents

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Just under a week after knocking off the Astros in a seven-game World Series, the Nationals are undoubtedly still reveling over their first championship. But now that the offseason has arrived, they’re at risk of losing a few key contributors to free agency.

Two of the many faces of the Nationals’ improbable playoff run were right-hander Stephen Strasburg and third baseman Anthony Rendon, who each seemed to come up with one heroic moment after another throughout the postseason. Strasburg deservedly earned World Series MVP honors after going on a particularly jaw-dropping run. It’s no surprise he and Rendon, who have consistently been among the Nationals’ top players and the majors’ most impressive performers throughout their careers, were among the main catalysts for the club’s championship. And now that they’re unsigned heading into 2020, they’re about to be paid rather handsomely for their years-long shows of brilliance. The question is whether they’ll continue with the Nationals going forward.

MLBTR regards the Nationals as the favorites to sign both Strasburg and Rendon, though doing so will require the team to put its enviable financial might on full display. We project the 31-year-old Strasburg (six years, $180MM) and the 29-year-old Rendon (seven years, $235MM) to combine for $415MM on their next contracts. That type of commitment may be especially risky in the case of Strasburg – not only owing to the fact that he’s a pitcher, but because injuries have been somewhat common throughout his career. Although Strasburg did just toss a career-high 209 regular-season innings in 2019, he’s only a year removed from a 130-frame showing – which was the latest of a handful of abbreviated campaigns in his career.

Of course, the point of this exercise isn’t to list the few flaws Strasburg and Rendon may have. It’s to ask whether the Nationals will re-sign one, both or either of the superstar Scott Boras clients. Fresh off a fairytale few months, there’s surely motivation for both sides to work something out. Rendon has indicated in the past he’d like to continue his career with the only organization he has known since it selected him in the sixth round of the 2011 draft. Strasburg, meanwhile, first joined the franchise as an extremely hyped No. 1 pick in 2009. While Strasburg did just opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM left on his contract, that common sense business decision doesn’t necessarily mean he’s champing at the bit to leave D.C. What do you think the future holds for him and Rendon?

(Poll link for app users)

10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.

This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.

This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).

Here are the ten players:

There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.

Padres Plan To Pursue Stephen Strasburg

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With Nationals co-ace and World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg opting out of his contract and preparing to hit free agency, the Padres are gearing up to make a push for the right-hander’s services. According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, “multiple people in the [Padres] organization indicated over the past few days that the team will be in position to make a run at Stephen Strasburg.”

The connection is clear: Strasburg, 31, was born and raised in and around San Diego, attending college at San Diego State University, where he was coached by Padres legend Tony Gwynn. That alone has instantly forced the Padres into the conversation as a suitor for the former first overall draft choice. Everybody loves a good homecoming story, but one not need look further than Strasburg’s own teammate, Patrick Corbin, as an example of a free agent who was widely regarded as a near-lock to join his hometown Yankees, only to sign on with the Nats. That’s not to say the Strasburg-Padres link doesn’t hold any salt, but there will certainly be more variables that factor into Strasburg’s final decision, and it would behoove the Padres to refrain from relying too much on the hometown trope in recruiting Strasburg.

As Acee notes, the prevailing view around the industry is that the Nationals, who according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman are poised to immediately enter talks with Strasburg, remain the favorites to retain their franchise icon. After opting out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his current deal, the Scott Boras client will be seeking a nice raise on the heels of arguably his best season. He struck out a career-high 251 batters while pitching his most innings since 2014—not including the stellar 36 1/3 innings he logged during the Nats’ title run. Regardless, the Friars’ interest is notable in that it represents a logical progression of the franchise rebuild, which looks to be entering its final stages.

To be sure, location isn’t the only thing that makes Strasburg and the Padres compatible—there’s a fit on paper, as well. Still without a top-flight starter, Strasburg would greatly bolster the Padres’ chances in the coming season. Rookie Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet were the most impressive cogs in the starting rotation, but the depth beyond that pair is troubling. Garrett Richards is healthy and will be back in 2020, and top prospects like Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, and Cal Quantrill have graduated to the big leagues. Each of those youngsters could take a second-year leap and contribute to the 2020 rotation, but banking on that would put a lot on the shoulders of an inexperienced group that hasn’t yet shown that they can stick on a Major League staff.

The Padres have long been regarded as a team on the rise, with a healthy stable of prospects that has led many to pronounce the Friars as the next coming of the Cubs or Astros. But potential can only get you so far, and many are itching for the front office to show a sense of urgency and capitalize on the depth of young talent in the organization. Indeed, the front office’s recent actions indicate that the organization feels its window for contention is opening: signing Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer firmly declared the team’s desire to transition into a win-now mode. They were rumored to be in talks for top-flight trade targets like Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, and Marcus Stroman, ultimately coming up empty-handed.

Of course, adding a pitcher of Strasburg’s caliber would require the Padres to ratchet up the 2020 payroll. Roster Resource pegs San Diego’s current obligations at roughly $120MM, a number that includes projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players. Of course, some of those players may be non-tendered, and Wil Myers, owner of a hefty $22.5MM salary, is a candidate to be traded. Such moves could partially offset the cost of adding Strasburg, which could come in at a bill exceeding $30MM annually. While San Diego’s deep farm system has made the trade market its primary recourse for acquiring Major League talent, it’s not every day that a pitcher like Strasburg could be had where money is the only cost.

Stephen Strasburg Opts Out Of Nationals Contract

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10:20 pm: Boras and the Nationals plan to start re-negotiating Strasburg’s deal on Sunday, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (link). Of course, that’s no guarantee that the two sides will come to an accord, but it’s certainly noteworthy that both parties appear committed to sustaining a working relationship.

9:28 pm: In a development that promises to have far-reaching implications on this offseason’s free agent market, starter Stephen Strasburg has decided to opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his contract with the Nationals, as first reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (link). As Feinsand notes in a follow-up tweet, the present-day value of the remaining money on his Nationals deal is closer to $88MM, due to the original agreement’s heavily deferred structure (link).

To say that Strasburg heads to the open market with momentum at his back would be a gross understatement. Always an excellent pitcher when healthy, the 31-year-old truly put it all together in 2019, leading his league in both innings pitched and wins, while maintaining typically pristine ERA (3.32) and strikeout (10.81 K/9) marks across 33 starts. And for a follow-up? The San Diego State product and former #1 overall pick laid waste to postseason hitters, allowing just 8 earned runs through 36.1 October innings; his two starts in the Fall Classic were dominant enough to see the righty named 2019’s World Series MVP, despite some tough competition from his offensive teammates. Strasburg will likely garner a fair deal of Cy Young support and now heads into free agency for the first time in his career with superagent Scott Boras as his sidekick.

The prevailing sense around D.C. has long been that the pitcher’s historical allegiance to the team that drafted him would lead to the two parties working out an extension. After all, it was just in 2016 that the hurler decided to extend with a seven-year, $175MM deal with Washington in advance of his impending free agency–a true rarity for a Boras client. However, today’s 12pm EST deadline for his opt-out decision came and went without word, and it appears that both parties declined to arrange a deadline extension to help facilitate negotiation around a new deal, as occurred with the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw last offseason.

Instead, Mike Rizzo and his Washington front office will likely find themselves negotiating for the starter’s services against the bidding of several other competing organizations in short order. All of the teams in Strasburg’s native Southern California appear as logical fits, with the Padres, Angels, and Dodgers all projecting to have both spending capacity and rotation needs this winter.

Nationals To Exercise Options On Eaton, Doolittle; Decline Options On Zimmerman, Gomes

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Still in the afterglow of their World Series victory, it appears that the Nationals are deciding to decline their $18MM club option on first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (link). Catcher Yan Gomes will also have his $9MM option declined, while outfielder Adam Eaton ($9.5MM) and reliever Sean Doolittle ($6.5MM) will both see their 2020 options exercised, per Heyman (link).

As was suggested by our own Jeff Todd when Washington declined their option on Matt Adams yesterday, a decline of Zimmerman’s option was easy to foresee. Although he remains something of a franchise icon, the 35-year-old is several years removed from the kind of production that would warrant a salary approaching $20MM. A member of the club’s inaugural 2005 squad, Zimmerman was an All-Star in his heyday, logging a twin pair of 6.6 fWAR seasons in 2009 and 2010. However, the righty swinger has cobbled just 1.4 fWAR over the last two campaigns in spot duty, combining for a modestly above-average 107 wRC+ in that span. It would be not unthinkable for the club to bring him back as veteran depth on a more reasonable one-year term.

The club’s decision on Gomes also rates as rather predictable, even given a relative dearth of catching available on the free agent market this winter. After logging what appeared to be a rebound year with the Indians in 2018, Gomes came back down to earth with a .223/.316/.389 slash line across 358 plate appearances in D.C. this past season. Defensively, 2019 was an essentially mediocre campaign from the 32-year-old, with Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric pegging him with a -1.0 FRAA. The Nationals will owe Gomes a $1MM buyout.

Heading into 2019, Eaton’s option may have seemed something of a toss-up after injuries robbed him of the majority of his 2018 and 2017 seasons. His production this past season was right in line with career averages, however, as his blend of high-contact, on-base ability made him an above-average offensive contributor (107 wRC+). He was merely a passable defensive option in the outfield corners (as his -0.8 UZR would suggest), but a .279/.365/.428 line with 15 homers and 15 steals is essentially tailor-made for the top of a team’s lineup, making his option a clear value.

Doolittle had an up-and-down 2019 that saw him lose sole ownership of the closer’s role in the season’s second half amidst injury and performance concerns. Still, the lefty’s 9.90 K/9 rate, 2.25 BB/9 rate, and 4.05 ERA across 60 regular-season innings represent acceptable relief production in today’s offensively inclined climate.

Nationals Decline Mutual Option On Matt Adams

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The Nationals announced today that they have declined their side of a $4MM mutual option on first baseman Matt Adams. He’ll instead receive a $1MM buyout and head back onto the open market.

While it’s still possible Adams could return again to D.C., perhaps it’s likelier he’ll move along elsewhere after a disappointing campaign. While he put in a solid early showing this year, Adams faded to a .217/.277/.406 line with sixty strikeouts over his final 155 plate appearances on the year.

At his best, Adams is a well-above-average hitter against right-handed pitching. But the 31-year-old has never enjoyed sustained productivity when facing southpaws and is likely only a candidate for platoon/pinch-hitting duties.

It remains to be seen what direction the Nats will take at first base following their epic finish to the 2019 campaign. Ryan Zimmerman could return on a lesser deal once his option is formally declined, with Adams or another lefty bat joining the roster to share time. Or Zimmerman could hang up his spikes after the thrill of finally raising a trophy, in which case the D.C. organization could go in any number of different directions.

Max Scherzer Scratched From Game 5 Start

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5:54 pm: At a pregame media session, Scherzer told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN) that he is also dealing with nerve irritation in his neck. The ace added that he underwent a cortisone shot that will take approximately 48 hours to kick in, seemingly putting to rest any hope he could return in Tuesday’s Game 6. He remains on the Nationals’ World Series roster, but those in attendance at this evening’s media session (including Todd Dybas of NBC Sports) seemed less than optimistic about his chances of returning by Wednesday’s potential Game 7.

3:36 pm: Nationals starter Max Scherzer, who was slated to start Sunday’s World Series game five, has been scratched from his start, according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. In his place, Joe Ross will take the mound for the Nationals. Per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post, Scherzer has been dealing with spasms in his neck and right trapezius.

Manager Dave Martinez told reporters that Scherzer began experiencing spasms last night, and woke up this morning in worse condition, rendering him unable to go tonight. Martinez also said that the Nationals will keep Scherzer on the roster in hopes that he shows enough improvement in the next couple of days to pitch in either game six or seven (if necessary). As of now, the Nats plan to start Stephen Strasburg in game six on Tuesday, with the possibility that Scherzer could be available in relief, or as the starter for a potential seventh game.

Martinez noted that Scherzer’s injury influenced his bullpen management in last night’s loss: he refrained from using Joe Ross, bracing for the possibility that Scherzer may not be able to start Sunday’s game. It’s also notable that neither Sean Doolittle nor Daniel Hudson, the Nats’ two most reliable relievers, has pitched since game one last Tuesday, meaning that Martinez might be able to stretch them out if he can’t get sufficient length from Ross.

Scherzer’s injury is a crucial development in a virtual must-win fifth game. With Gerrit Cole on the hill for the Astros, it was already going to be a tough game, but without their ace on the mound, the Nationals will have to count on Joe Ross, who found his stride in August and September. The freshness of the bullpen will help the Nats’ cause, with the possibility that both Doolittle and Hudson could be asked to get six outs each.

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