Headlines

  • Rangers Trade Dane Dunning To Braves
  • Kyle Gibson Announces Retirement
  • Yankees Interested In Mitch Keller
  • Pirates Trade Adam Frazier To Royals
  • Mets, Yankees Among Teams To Show Recent Interest In David Robertson
  • Stuart Sternberg Has Agreed To Sell Rays To Patrick Zalupski, Deal Expected To Be Final By September
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Series
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLB Mailbag: Tigers, Gore, Athletics, Astros

By Tim Dierkes | July 16, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into relief options for the Tigers, whether the Nationals should trade MacKenzie Gore, and the trade value of Athletics JJ Bleday and Luis Severino, as well as questions involving the Astros, Reds, Rangers, Cubs, and Red Sox.

Colin asks:

A few days ago, the Dodgers traded Noah Davis to the Twins for cash.  Davis was not at all successful with the Dodgers.  Can you tell me how much cash a team typically gets in a situation like that?

I ran this question by a front office friend.  He replied, "The dollar amount received by clubs trading away a DFA’d player for cash considerations almost always falls between $55,000 and $100,000.  There’s little incentive for clubs to trade the player for anything less than $50,000 because the club will receive that amount if the player is claimed off waivers. MLB caps cash transactions in this situation to a maximum of $100,000. Thus, most cash transactions of this nature end up in the $55,000 to $100,000 range."

Barry asks:

I really feel that Detroit needs two bullpen arms, one of which could close out games or be in the closing mix and match what AJ does. Any insight as to who the Tigers are looking at? I am thinking that David Bednar is the type of pitcher Detroit likes, controlling the strike zone, low walks.

Michael asks:

Coming out of the break, the Tigers have the best record in baseball and the biggest division lead. Nobody had that on their bingo card. In light of that, what should be Detroit's plan for the next two weeks? Should they swing for the fences and if so, how? Or look to add a piece here and there but not mortgage the future (or empty the farm) in favor of adding big names now?

The Tigers definitely need to add late inning relievers who can miss bats.  There's a good case to be made for signing David Robertson, who is reportedly throwing for interested teams.

The average MLB reliever punches out 22.4% of batters faced and has an 11.3% swinging strike rate.  We saw trade rumors on Mason Miller of the Athletics last summer; his K% is over 40%.  He's under team control through 2029, though, so the A's have no reason to trade him now unless they feel they're selling high or received an offer they can't refuse.

The Orioles' Felix Bautista is under team control through 2027.  He has a huge strikeout rate as well, but walks even more batters than Miller.  Bautista's teammate Seranthony Dominguez is in that same class.  A free agent after the season, Dominguez seems a lock to be dealt.  Same goes for Gregory Soto, so it makes sense for Scott Harris to be blowing up Mike Elias' phone.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

Front Office Originals

78 comments

Trade Deadline Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

By Tim Dierkes | July 15, 2025 at 11:35pm CDT

The Cardinals reached the All-Star break in a tricky position.  With about 40% of their season remaining, they're only 1.5 games back in the Wild Card and have a real shot at the playoffs.  That's the case despite an offseason in which they did not attempt to improve the club, in what longtime president of baseball operations John Mozeliak termed a "reset."  And Mozeliak will be navigating the July 31st deadline as a lame duck, given the club's stated plan to give his job to Chaim Bloom for the 2026 season.

Mozeliak put it this way nine days ago (Katie Woo of The Athletic reporting): "I do feel like where we are in the week leading up, or the 72 hours leading up to the trading deadline, may affect how we make our decisions."  He further explained, "When we talk about all-in, I do think based on where the franchise is, based on payroll down and thinking more of the long view, we’re still trying to balance today’s success with ultimately having long-term success."

Record: 51-46 (28.5% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Right-handed bat, pitching depth

Regarding the transition to Bloom, Mozeliak said, "When we get closer to the deadline, if there’s something that could impact how the future looks, clearly we’ll take a look at in a more collaborative sense."

With relative stability on the pitching staff, Mozeliak's deadline focus on the buy side may be on an offense that ranks fifth in the National League with 4.58 runs scored per game.  Within that respectable showing, however, is a team that ranks 10th in the NL with an 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

Mozeliak acknowledged the deficiency but also said, "I do feel like where they’re going to be in a week or two is not a glaring hole in terms of trading deadline thoughts," given Ivan Herrera's July 13th activation and minor injuries affecting other righty bats like Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras.

Brendan Donovan has been an everyday player, generally at second base, despite consistent struggles against southpaws over the last three seasons.  Alec Burleson, currently deployed in the corner outfield, has been similar.  Center fielder Victor Scott II has sat against some lefties in the last month in favor of Garrett Hampson.  Lars Nootbaar, on the IL for a left costochondral sprain, had been sitting here or there against lefties but often with Donovan or Burleson in his spot and Thomas Saggese getting the start at second base.

Given that Mozeliak said "I don’t think we’re ever going to take away from the guys we’re trying to see play," it may be difficult to find the ideal addition.  An improvement over Hampson as Scott's platoon partner could be one answer.  Perhaps a call to the White Sox regarding Austin Slater or Michael A. Taylor of the White Sox would make sense.  A homecoming for Randal Grichuk could work, though he hasn't played much center in recent years.  Maybe the Astros will find Chas McCormick expendable once he completes his rehab assignment for an oblique strain.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals St. Louis Cardinals

123 comments

MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Rangers, J-Rod, Yankees, Bichette

By Tim Dierkes | July 9, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' deadline approach, the lefty relief market, offseason ideas for the Rangers, the Mariners trading Julio Rodriguez, who the Yankees could give up in trades, Bo Bichette's future, and much more.

Rich asks:

With two bad performances by starting pitchers, Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde, will the Cardinals seek a trade for at least one veteran starting pitcher?

Sam asks:

Bernie Miklasz who seems pretty well sourced was talking about the Cardinals potentially trading Nootbaar. If they do that, what sort of return would the Cardinals get? His results are not good but his statcast data is great.

At the time of this writing, the Cardinals are 1.5 games out in the wild card with a 33.5% chance at the playoffs.

The first question reminds me a bit of the 2021 season, when John Mozeliak's Cardinals reached deadline day as a .500 club with just a 2-3% chance at the playoffs.  The club picked up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ at the deadline, with Mozeliak saying, "We wanted to try to do it in a way that we wouldn't be giving up a lot of future talent; that was something that was sort of critical in our decision-making. Needless to say, today we felt like we took a couple steps forward without having to sacrifice our future."

The 2021 team went 39-21 from July 30th onward before losing the (lone) NL Wild Card game against the Dodgers.  Lester and Happ gave the Cardinals exactly what they wanted: innings.  Innings are generally what Mikolas and Fedde provide, having combined for 349 of them last year.  Sonny Gray has been excellent, while Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante have been solid.

Mikolas and Fedde do deserve ERAs around 5.00, and there's logic to seeking an upgrade - either one controllable beyond this year, or one in the Lester/Happ mold who doesn't cost much.  In my recent Cubs Trade Deadline Outlook, I named just about every potentially available starting pitcher I could think of, though Steve Adams suggested I add Drew Rasmussen.  The Cardinals have a very real shot at reaching the playoffs this year - perhaps more than they expected coming into the season - and I do think they should add a starter.

In an article Monday, Katie Woo of The Athletic noted that Fedde may not take his next turn in the rotation, and Mikolas shouldn't feel comfortable either.  Michael McGreevy is the next man up.  The 25-year-old has excelled in Triple-A and can probably do better than Fedde.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

Front Office Originals

45 comments

Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | July 8, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

Led by All-Star starters Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Cubs are in a great position to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.  Their position player mix could use some tweaks, but the team's priority will be its battered rotation.

Jed Hoyer has had the top chair in the Cubs' baseball operations department since Theo Epstein stepped down in November 2020.  Hoyer was the number two man in Epstein's front office before that, after he'd led the Padres' front office for two years.  He's played a large part for "buy mode" contenders across many trade deadlines and has been unafraid to move prospects and good young players.  Hoyer sent a strong "all-in" message in December by trading last year's first rounder Cam Smith along with three years of Isaac Paredes and five of Hayden Wesneski for one year of Kyle Tucker.

Hoyer is in the last year of a five-year contract with the Cubs, so it's a bit odd to have him making long-term decisions for the franchise with his own future in doubt.  Back when Epstein stepped down, he said, "The organization faces many decisions this winter that carry long-term consequences; those types of decisions are best made by someone who will be here for a long period rather than for just one more year."  Perhaps an extension for Hoyer is forthcoming.  For now, I'm sure, his focus is on shoring up the first-place Cubs for a deep playoff run.

Record: 54-36 (94.6% playoff probability)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Two starting pitchers, starting third baseman, lefty-mashing first baseman, general relief help

With Jameson Taillon on the IL into August due to a calf strain, the Cubs' rotation is down to two reliable established Major Leaguers: Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd.  Expected ace Justin Steele is out for the season due to Tommy John surgery.

Taillon still figures to be part of the playoff picture for the Cubs.  Colin Rea and Cade Horton are in the rotation at present, and Ben Brown made 14 starts before being optioned in late June.  Veteran Chris Flexen made 30 starts last year.  Jordan Wicks got the call four days ago but may be used in a long relief role.  Javier Assad, who started 29 games last year, has been dealing with an oblique injury all season.  It's not clear what the Cubs will get from him in 2025.

There are enough rotation options on hand to get through the regular season, but the goal is to win the World Series.  Boyd, the Cubs' All-Star lefty, is 34 years old and hasn't shouldered a full workload since 2019.  This team needs to add two starting pitchers, including at least one who can start a playoff game.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Chicago Cubs Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals

92 comments

Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | June 30, 2025 at 7:00pm CDT

The White Sox are next up in MLBTR's new Trade Deadline Outlook series.  After losing a modern-day record 121 games last year, the Sox are on pace to lose "only" 108 this year.  The Pale Hose remain firmly in the "clear seller" group as one of six teams with less than a 1% shot at reaching the playoffs.

White Sox executive vice president/general manager Chris Getz took over after the 2023 trade deadline, so this is only his second time being in the top chair for the event.  Last summer, Getz packaged several of his top assets together in Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, and Tommy Pham, netting Miguel Vargas as the headliner.  That trade looked rough out of the gate, as Vargas was one of the game's worst players after joining the White Sox.  The 25-year-old somewhat redeemed himself with a hot May this year.

Getz held out until the offseason to move lefty Garrett Crochet, drawing better reviews for that deal.  While the four-player return on that trade looks promising, it may still be painful to see Crochet locked up through 2031 and vying for the AL Cy Young award.  That deal will take years to truly evaluate, but as we look ahead to July, the question for the White Sox is whether they have anything valuable left to trade.

Record: 28-56 (0.0% playoff probability)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Aaron Civale, Martin Perez, Adrian Houser, Tyler Alexander, Michael A. Taylor, Austin Slater

Civale was picked up from the Brewers in a one-for-one swap on June 13th for Andrew Vaughn.  Perhaps it was a bit of a monkey's paw situation for the 30-year-old Civale, who requested a trade from the contending Brewers upon being moved to the bullpen, only to land in the rotation of the rebuilding White Sox.

Civale was hoping to maintain his earning power as a starting pitcher, though it's unclear he's helped his case in a small three-start sample with Chicago.  On the season, he's got a well-deserved 4.74 ERA in eight starts, having missed over a month with a hamstring strain.  He's been unable to miss bats this year and his homer-prone tendencies have continued.

The White Sox had nothing to lose by acquiring Civale, in that they were highly likely to non-tender Vaughn after the season.  But as an $8MM back of the rotation guy, Civale won't be making playoff starts in October and won't bring more than a low-level prospect.  Potential suitors may want some help with his salary.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Chicago White Sox Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Uncategorized

66 comments

MLB Mailbag: Devers, Red Sox, Braves, Alonso, Helsley

By Tim Dierkes | June 18, 2025 at 11:53pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into many aspects of the Rafael Devers trade, remaining questions to answer in Boston, no-trade clauses, shortstop options for the Braves, Pete Alonso's next contract, Ryan Helsley's struggles, and much more.

Kevin asks:

What's your personal take on the Giants trade? I think Boston got the better deal.

John asks:

Seen a lot of talk from fans and the media that Devers contract will age badly but I did a little digging into the Contract Tracker. Between 2015 and 2020 there were 12 contracts with an AAV at 30 mil. and over. This year alone there were 5, including one for 50. So am I wrong to think that given the way salaries have escalated by the end of the contract 30 mil. likely won't be that big a deal?

Denny asks:

Will Devers HR stats suffer playing home games at whatever the current name is of the ballpark in SF?

My initial reaction was to favor the Giants' side of the deal.  They added a 28-year-old top 10 hitter in baseball who should be worth 3-4 WAR per year for the foreseeable future.  The Giants also ditched Jordan Hicks' contract in the process.

The Giants could feel pain from moving Kyle Harrison and James Tibbs III, but probably not in the short-term.  The balance of this deal hinges heavily on Harrison, who is just 23 and retains number two starter upside.  The Red Sox can control Harrison through 2030 if they keep him in the minors for a few weeks, which I'm guessing is the plan.  Harrison has at least held his own through the equivalent of one Major League season.

Tibbs is considered a 50-grade prospect; he'll have to hit a lot to profile as a corner outfield regular.  Jose Bello is the wild card prospect, and those get moved regularly.

I have seen multiple anonymous executives suggest Devers' contract is underwater, meaning he's worth less than he's owed.  You could look at that in a strict dollars per WAR/aging curve sense, plugging in Devers as a 4-ish WAR player for 2025 who will begin his decline in 2026 or '27 and will be paid through 2033 (age 36).  WAR doesn't like a player like this, especially if he's a DH, and I could see valuing him below $250MM with this approach.

Say Devers was owed $253MM at the time of the trade, plus a $2MM assignment bonus paid by the Giants.  Let's also say that Hicks should be valued around $8MM per year.  Given that his contract pays $12MM a year through 2027, the Giants save approximately $10MM by unloading Hicks' contract.  Factor in Devers' deferrals and we'll say it's like the Giants are paying Devers around $225MM for the next 8.5 years.

Had Devers been declared a free agent on June 15, would he have topped $225MM?

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

Front Office Originals

65 comments

Athleticwear for the Modern Athlete (Sponsored)

By Tim Dierkes | June 18, 2025 at 8:47am CDT

This is a sponsored post from Greatness Wins.

When it comes to shopping for new apparel, understandably the market is overwhelming and saturated. One question that keeps popping into the minds of consumers: “What happened to the ‘sport’ in sportswear?”

Quality and durability are questionable with many athletic brands, while the focus of athleisure is more on fashion than fitness.

Greatness Wins saw the need for something better. All athletes deserve something better, and they’ve stepped up to the plate.

Derek Jeter and e-commerce entrepreneur and UNTUCKit Founder Chris Riccobono have joined forces with American Ballet Theatre Principal Dancer Misty Copeland, to introduce Greatness Wins: athleticwear for the modern athlete.

Their performance activewear has an ideal combination of weight, fit, and feel. So, no matter the activity you’re doing this summer –  whether running, golf, or pickleball – there is a product for you.

Now through July 21st, Trade Rumors readers can get an exclusive 20% off their first order.

Visit the website here for more info.

Here are some products to choose from:

Core Tech Hoodie

Perfect for lifting, light running, walking, cross training, layering, warm-ups and cool downs. Moisture wicking, quick dry, anti odor, breathable, UPF 40, optimal range of motion, front pouch pockets, cinched drawcord on hood.

Core Tech Quarter Zip

Made from Global Recycled Standard (GRS) certified recycled polyester, derived from plastic bottles. Recycled and reduces the need to extract new raw materials.

Great for lifting, light running, walking, cross training, yoga, soccer practice, tennis, cycling.

Golf Shop

Get your golf game fit in check this summer with Greatness Wins’ vast array of golf-related gear. Polos, clubhouse pants/shorts, and even golf accessories like gloves are great options to improve play. And they also make a great gift for the golf fanatic in your life.

Click this link here for an exclusive 20% off your first order!

No matter what kind of athlete you are, Greatness Wins has a solution for you.

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

Membership Sponsored

Comments Closed

Sign Up For Trade Rumors Front Office Now And Lock In Savings!

By Tim Dierkes | June 5, 2025 at 5:36pm CDT

Trade Rumors Front Office provides incredible value for baseball fans.  Consider these subscriber benefits:

  • All ads are removed.  Enjoy an ad-free, faster viewing experience on MLB Trade Rumors and in our Trade Rumors app
  • Exclusive access to the beta test for our new and improved Trade Rumors app, due out later this year
  • Exclusive weekly hot stove articles from expert MLB writers Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco, including the popular MLB Mailbag
  • Our new team-by-team Trade Candidate series, launching later this month
  • Access to MLBTR’s popular and long-running Offseason Outlook series
  • Exclusive member-only online chats with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco every week
  • Fantasy baseball articles and live chats from Nicklaus Gaut
  • MLB Contract Tracker: a high-powered tool featuring 18+ years of free agent contracts and extensions
  • MLB GM Tracker: GM tenures for all 30 teams dating back to 2000, with links to each GM’s contract history
  • MLB Agency Database: agencies for more than three-quarters of those who played in MLB in the last three seasons, compiled from industry sources
  • Support MLBTR’s employees directly! Our writers work tirelessly to create 15+ new posts per day, 365 days a year
  • Showcase your loyalty when commenting on MLBTR posts with an exclusive Trade Rumors Front Office badge

I am proud to have offered all of this for less than $30 per year since we launched Front Office five years ago.  Facing headwinds affecting our traffic and ad rates, I have decided to raise the price of Trade Rumors Front Office for the first time.  As of 8-1-25, the cost will be $34.99 per year or $3.99 per month.  I feel we’re still offering huge bang for your buck at this price.

But wait – you can still lock in the old price of just $29.89 per year, for a full three years!  That’s over $15 in savings!  Anyone who signs up for Trade Rumors Front Office prior to 8-1-25 and keeps auto-renewal on will enjoy the grandfathered $29.89 annual price until 8-1-28!  Go sign up right now!

If you’ve ever been on the fence about Trade Rumors Front Office, now is a great time to take the plunge.  And if you try it and don’t like it, we offer a 100% money-back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose!

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

Newsstand

56 comments

MLB Mailbag: Neto, Nationals, Trade Targets, Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | May 28, 2025 at 11:58pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into a potential extension for Zach Neto, who could offer a Juan Soto-like package for Paul Skenes, Ken Rosenthal's recent article on the Nationals, potentially available outfielders and relievers, upcoming free agents who have helped and hurt their stock, and much more.

RJ asks: 

What would an extension look like for Zach Neto?

Neto, 24, was the first player from the 2022 draft class to reach the Majors.  As a rookie in 2023, Neto missed a month with an oblique strain and later missed more than that with a back injury.  He didn't hit much as a rookie, but as a shortstop was still worth about 2 WAR per 150 games.

Neto avoided the IL in his breakout 2024 season and took off offensively around May, posting a 122 wRC+ from that point forward.  He logged over 1,300 innings at shortstop and was worth 3.5 WAR.  His baseball card stats were strong too, with 23 homers and 30 steals.

Statcast's Outs Above Average says Neto is a subpar defender in terms of range, suggesting he's not great at lateral movement.  The more holistic DRS sees Neto as a positive (we discussed OAA and DRS last week).  I don't get the impression his defense is considered a liability, and it probably won't limit his earning power much.

Neto underwent November shoulder surgery, making his season debut on April 18th as a result.  He's posted a 141 wRC+ in 152 plate appearances since then, which ranks 32nd in the Majors and fifth among shortstops.  He's on pace for 5.8 WAR per 150 games, which would make him a top-five shortstop in baseball.  In the small 2025 sample, Neto has traded contact for power, with a pace putting him close to 40 bombs over a full season.  Neto went from no red on his Statcast page last year to tons of it this year, with an expected slugging percentage that's actually higher than his already-excellent .542 mark.  The second-phase breakout seems real.

The Angels could hardly be accused of service time manipulation, having promoted Neto less than nine months after they signed him out of the draft.  Yet as it stands, he entered the season with one year and 170 days of Major League service, two days shy of two full years.  That means Neto will go through arbitration four times starting with the 2026 season, resulting in free agency after 2029.

Let's fire up the MLB Contract Tracker, our robust tool designed for this purpose, included with your subscription!

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

Front Office Originals

39 comments

MLB Mailbag: Soto, Simpson, Phillies, Brewers, Herrera

By Tim Dierkes | May 21, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into Juan Soto's start, Chandler Simpson's profile, long shot potentially available ace-caliber starting pitchers, available relievers, what to make of Ivan Herrera, and much more.

Ralph asks:

What's your take on Juan Soto's lackluster performance to date?

My take is that it's much ado about nothing.

The first question is, exactly how lackluster is it?  Soto has a 132 wRC+ through 214 plate appearances.  He's out-hitting, say, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, guys whose performance fans generally seem content with.

Higher expectations for Soto are fair, given that he's the highest-paid player in baseball.  One problem that will likely persist with Soto is that many people do not appreciate the shape of his offensive contributions, because being second in the league in walks is boring.  I'm not accounting for park adjustments, but yes, it's a little better to hit eight home runs, nine doubles, and 26 singles with 38 walks in 214 PA (Soto) than it is to hit 12 home runs, two triples, 11 doubles, 21 singles, and 17 walks in 203 PA (Suzuki).

I don't think most WFAN callers are looking at wRC+, but I don't otherwise know how you'd easily weigh those two stat lines.  Soto does sometimes experience modest power outages, like when he slugged .452 in 2022 (including .390 for the Padres) yet still managed a 146 wRC+.

The fact remains that Soto is not hitting like a superstar even if we give proper weight to his walks.  To simplify, the "problem" is that he's slugging .437 over 214 PA, and we expect him to slug, say, .545 as he did from 2023-24.  And it is true that during 2023-24, Soto never had a span of 48 games/214 PA where he slugged below .461.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email0

Front Office Originals

80 comments
Load More Posts
    Top Stories

    Rangers Trade Dane Dunning To Braves

    Kyle Gibson Announces Retirement

    Yankees Interested In Mitch Keller

    Pirates Trade Adam Frazier To Royals

    Mets, Yankees Among Teams To Show Recent Interest In David Robertson

    Stuart Sternberg Has Agreed To Sell Rays To Patrick Zalupski, Deal Expected To Be Final By September

    Nationals Select Eli Willits With First Pick Of 2025 Amateur Draft

    2025 MLB Draft, First Round Results

    Red Sox Place Hunter Dobbins On 15-Day IL Due To ACL Tear

    Astros Promote Brice Matthews

    Red Sox Likely To Activate Alex Bregman Tomorrow

    Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers

    Yankees Prioritizing Pitching, Also Searching For Infield Help

    Orioles Trade Bryan Baker To Rays

    Yankees Release DJ LeMahieu

    Trevor Williams To Undergo UCL Surgery

    Nationals Fire PBO Mike Rizzo, Manager Dave Martinez

    Brewers Activate Brandon Woodruff

    Clarke Schmidt Expected To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Bobby Jenks Passes Away

    Recent

    Rangers To Select Cody Freeman

    Diamondbacks Sign Sergio Alcántara, Place Ketel Marte On Restricted List Due To Personal Matter

    Fantasy Baseball: Anticipating Bullpen Holes

    Rockies Place Thairo Estrada On IL With Thumb Sprain

    Ryan Burr To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

    Trade Deadline Outlook: Minnesota Twins

    Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

    Max Kranick To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Orioles Re-Sign Corbin Martin To Major League Deal

    Scott Alexander Elects Free Agency

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Sandy Alcantara Rumors
    • Luis Robert Rumors
    • Alex Bregman Rumors

     

    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • Front Office Originals
    • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • Trade Deadline Outlook Series
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version