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MLB Mailbag: Alonso, Skubal, Grisham

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This week's mailbag gets into Pete Alonso's reported contract demand, the Tigers and Tarik Skubal, possible Trent Grisham suitors, and much more.

Chris asks:

Alonso saying he is seeking a 7 year deal is essentially him saying that he's out of Queens. So if you're Stearns, is the play to go all out for Murakami? Short-term on a Josh Naylor? Or give the keys to Clifford, strengthen up elsewhere like CF, 3B, DH to supplement the offense now you don't have Pete? Or just really go all in on your "Run Prevention" Plan, go get a Skubal or Skenes, sign Valdez or Cease and fortify the defense. There's a lot of questions for the Mets who honestly feel like they are only a few pieces for being a legit World Series Contender again.

Abner asks:

Pete Alonso is asking for a 7 year deal (he will be 31 by the beginning of next season) and David Stearns does not like that type of commitment for players in the wrong side of the 30's. It is known that the Mets are showing interest in NPB player Munetaka Murakami who is a slugger in Japan, but is not yet proven against MLB pitching. Murakami also comes with some concerns (poor plate discipline/not excel with defense), but based on recent Japanese stars that have come to MLB (Roki Sasaki/Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Seiya Suzuki) we could expect him to command a longer and more expensive deal than the one Alonso is looking for. Additionally, there will be no other first basemen of that same caliber available in this offseason free agency class. So, how feasible for the Mets would be to get a deal done with Pete Alonso and how that deal would look like? Thanks in advance.

On Saturday, Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote, "Alonso, who turns 31 in December, is expected to seek a contract of at least seven years — a length consistent with deals the player’s agent, Scott Boras, completed in recent seasons for Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman at the same age (Chapman received a six-year extension from the Giants after his first season with the club on a different contract)."

Start with the fact that both of those comps are a major stretch for Alonso.

Semien did indeed sign a seven-year deal heading into his age-31 season.  This came off a monster 6-WAR campaign, Semien's second in three years.  Alonso has not even reached 4 WAR since he was a rookie.  The gap in defensive value on the two is enormous.  Semien was a Gold Glove second baseman who was also capable of playing shortstop.

Puma makes a case that Alonso's first base defense isn't as bad as the metrics suggest, because he's good at making scoops.  That may be true, but he's still a pretty clear net negative given what two completely different metrics, Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, say.

More crucially, Semien was an up-the-middle player, not a first baseman who's expected to move to DH soon.  Semien's defensive abilities have sustained 2+ WAR value even as his offense has slipped below league average.  And Semien's seventh year, brought about by a level of free agent competition Alonso is unlikely to have, looks regrettable.

Chapman's deal was not signed on the open market.  It's a six-year extension covering age 32-37.  I suppose a case can be made that if a 32-year-old can get six years, a 31-year-old should get seven.  Like Semien, defense is a huge part of Chapman's game, making him a poor comp for Alonso.

The correct comps are other first basemen, plus designated hitters.  Modern GMs have clearly demonstrated they will not give first basemen and DHs long-term deals.  The fact that no one offered Alonso a good one last year was not entirely due to the qualifying offer.  It has been nearly four years since a free agent first baseman of any age signed for even five years.  That was Freddie Freeman getting six in March 2022.  Freeman clearly a better hitter than Alonso is.

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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The Reinsdorf era may be drawing to a close.  With clean books and many unsettled positions, do the White Sox have any bold offseason moves up their sleeve?

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Luis Robert Jr., CF: $20MM club option ($2MM buyout); deal includes $20MM club option for 2027
  • Martin Perez, SP: $10MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)

Total 2026 commitments (if Robert's option is exercised): $38MM
Total long-term commitments (if Robert's option is exercised): $52.5MM through 2027

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Wilson, Hill

Free Agents

In last year's Offseason Outlook, we briefly touched on the bigger-picture questions of who will own the White Sox long-term and where they will play in 2030.  One of those questions has likely been answered.  In June of this year, the team announced that "Jerry Reinsdorf and Justin Ishbia have reached a long-term investment agreement that establishes a framework for Ishbia to obtain a future controlling interest in the White Sox," adding that "Ishbia will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations."

That's the headline, but the details are crucial:

"The agreement provides that, from 2029–33, Reinsdorf will have the option to sell the controlling interest to Ishbia. After the 2034 season, Ishbia will have the option to acquire the controlling interest. In the event of any such future transaction, all limited partners of the Sox would have the opportunity to sell to Ishbia at that time. In addition to Justin Ishbia, his brother Mat Ishbia, and father Jeff Ishbia will also be significant investors. There is no assurance that any such future transaction will occur, and in no event will such a transaction take place before 2029."

If you've got 20 minutes to spare, check out this discussion between Alex Maragos of NBC 5 Chicago and Jon Greenberg of The Athletic, who has done a lot of reporting on this planned transfer of ownership.  You'll hear the word "transformative" thrown around, but there's no reason to expect a significant player payroll increase in the near future.  White Sox fans have a new sense of hope about the future of the franchise, but for the 2025-26 offseason, we don't expect much of an Ishbia effect.

The 2025 White Sox were just normal bad, rather than historically bad.  It was the team's third consecutive 100-loss season, with a 60-102 record.  The White Sox ranked 14th in the AL with 3.99 runs scored per game.  The starting rotation ranked 11th with a 4.39 ERA, while the bullpen checked in at 10th with a 4.16 mark.  The defense seemed to be bottom-five in the league.

Despite that, positives are emerging.  The White Sox have established a Kyle Teel-Edgar Quero job-share at catcher.  Teel came up in June and posted 1.9 fWAR in 78 games, including a 125 wRC+ at the plate that ranked sixth among all catchers.  Shortstop Colson Montgomery came up in July and slugged at a level well beyond anything he'd done at Triple-A: a 129 wRC+ with 21 home runs in just 284 plate appearances.

On the pitching side, GM Chris Getz snagged Shane Smith from the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft last winter, and he remarkably became the team's All-Star representative.  The righty, 26 in April, faltered in the middle of the summer but posted a 3.09 ERA and 27.1 K% over his final ten starts.

First base was a bit of a black eye.  The White Sox justifiably gave up on former third overall pick Andrew Vaughn, optioning him to Triple-A in May and sending him to the Brewers for pitcher Aaron Civale in mid-June.  The Brewers brought Vaughn up a few weeks later and he put up a surprising and robust 142 wRC+ in 254 plate appearances, plus a couple of key home runs in the Division Series against the Cubs.

The White Sox never really settled on a first baseman after moving on from Vaughn, with guys like Tim Elko, Ryan Noda, and trade deadline pickup Curtis Mead getting looks.  The majority of starts went to Miguel Vargas, who also played a bunch of third base.  Vargas flashed signs of life in May and August, but overall his 101 wRC+ doesn't really play for a starter at an infield corner.  So what can be done?

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MLB Mailbag: Reds, Bregman, Bichette, Polanco, Braves, deGrom

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This week's mailbag gets into the Reds' offense, whether Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Jorge Polanco will stay with their respective clubs, trade targets for the Braves' rotation, and whether the Rangers could trade Jacob deGrom.

Bill asks:

What can the Cincinnati Reds possibly do to fix the mess that is their lineup? They need at least one big bat and probably do not have the money to accomplish that.

The Reds' offense ranked eighth in the NL with 4.42 runs scored per game.  Let's examine where the lineup stands after the Reds were eliminated by the Dodgers in the Wild Card round.

No one on the Reds had a stellar offensive season.  Almost every regular fell between a 97 wRC+ and a 109 mark, with 100 being league average.  Where can improvements be found?

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MLB Mailbag: Cubs, Mets, Guardians, Athletics

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This week's mailbag gets into offseason possibilities for the Cubs and Mets and also includes questions on the Angels, Guardians, and A's.

Walter asks:

With the Cubs probably not getting serious on Tucker, how much money will the Cubs have to spend and what are the likely targets to hopefully build a champion next year? Starting pitching? Bullpen?

Colin asks:

How should the Cubs replace Kyle Tucker? It feels like keeping it internal with a combo of Seiya and Caissie and Alcantara in RF and the first two and Ballesteros at DH won't make up for Tucker's production. Curious if there are any good targets out there for them to pursue.

Kelly asks:

The Cubs have several players going into next season in their final year. What do you predict will happen with Boyd, Suzuki, Happ and Hoerner? I know some of it is predicated on Tucker, but which are the priorities in your opinion to extend or trade this off-season? Where do Ballesteros, Amaya, Cassie and Long factor into their decision?

Nick asks:

Tucker leaves, Caissie in right, and sign Bregman. Can the Cubs package Happ and Shaw together for a controllable starter? Anybody come to mind?

It seems odd to get into the Cubs' offseason as they host the Padres in the Wild Card Series, but I received many of these questions and I aim to please with this mailbag.

The Cubs will easily come in below the $241MM competitive balance tax this year, after going a little bit over in 2024.  They were also under the CBT from 2021-23.

Regular season attendance was up 3.7% this year, plus at least a few playoff games are taking place at Wrigley Field.  In theory, the Cubs could get into the range of the $244MM threshold, if president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer sees reasonable ways to spend that money.  So what do the 2026 commitments look like?

I'll also make a few option assumptions:

  • Cubs will pick up Andrew Kittredge's $9MM club option
  • Cubs will pick up Colin Rea's $6MM club option
  • Cubs will pick up Shota Imanaga's three-year, $57MM club option.  I'm not entirely sure on the CBT hit in this case, but $19MM should be close enough for our purposes.

There is a case to be made for declining Imanaga's three-year option, but we can get into that another time.

I dared to enter Matt Swartz's top-secret arbitration lab, in the basement of the MLB Trade Rumors building, to beg for some early numbers.  But the Cubs' class is only Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Reese McGuire, and Eli Morgan.  We can just worry about Steele and Assad, who have respective projections of $6.55MM and $1.9MM.

These 12 players, plus other stuff such as player benefits, brings the team's estimated CBT payroll to $176MM.  If these estimates are generally correct, the Cubs will enter the 2026-27 offseason about $68MM shy of the $244MM CBT threshold.  There's space to spend some serious money this winter!

Assessing potential Cubs targets will require a team breakdown!

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MLB Mailbag: Naylor, Eflin, Tucker, King, Realmuto

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Trade Rumors Front Office members, check your inboxes for early access to the beta test for our new iPhone/iPad app!

This week's mailbag gets into the impending free agencies of Josh Naylor, Zach Eflin, Kyle Tucker, Michael King, and J.T. Realmuto, among other topics.

Stephen asks:

Josh Naylor in a mariners uniform next year would be wonderful. What would it take to make it happen?

This mailbag presents several opportunities to exercise my contract prediction muscles in advance of the MLBTR team collaborating on our Top 50 Free Agents list throughout October.  So let's try to put a number on Naylor.

Naylor will be 29 next year, and not until June, so you get a good amount of age 28 as well.  He's been even better in Seattle than Arizona, and this year's 126 wRC+ seems representative of his abilities for the next few years.

Somehow, Naylor has stolen 28 bags this year in 30 tries despite second percentile sprint speed.  As I have said in this space, I love that as a fellow slow runner, but I don't think I'd bake it into his free agent valuation.  Defensively, Naylor seems to rate as an acceptable first baseman.  Overall, he's a guy you can pencil in for 2.5-3 WAR.  He deserves intangible credit, too, in the clubhouse and with Mariners fans.  The cherry on top: he's ineligible for a qualifying offer due to the July trade.

If you check out Darragh McDonald's podcast with Jerry Dipoto from earlier this month, they got into the difficulty of attracting free agents, particularly bats, to Seattle.  Naylor, though, feels like he sees the ball well at T-Mobile Park, called it a "super cool stadium," and called the team's fans "awesome."  In a park that suppresses offense by around 9%, Naylor is hitting .350/.398/.613 in 90 plate appearances since the trade.  So if there is a free agent position player on whom the Mariners are going to line up for more than two years, which Dipoto has yet to do with the Ms, Naylor seems like the guy.

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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Orioles, Astros, Schwarber, Casas

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This week's mailbag covers the trade value of Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Nolan Arenado, the Orioles' need this winter, the Astros' infield logjam, Kyle Schwarber's Hall of Fame candidacy, and how the Red Sox might approach first base next year.

Sam asks:

Assuming Willson Contreras agrees to waive his NTC, what sort of return would the Cardinals receive? Same question for Sonny Gray too please. (Assuming that Arenado is not moved or that the Cardinals eat most of his contract in exchange for a PTBNL or similar from his limited list of teams)

Hugh asks:

Assuming Arenado and Gray waive NTCs, what are the chances Cardinals can move them? Would Arenado be a non-tender candidate?

It's difficult to just assume Contreras, Gray, or Arenado would waive their no-trade clauses, even for the sake or argument.  That's because those players would basically never entertain saying, "OK, I consent to a trade to any of the other 29 teams.  Go for it!"  They'd do something like what Arenado did last winter: provide a list of approved teams, and/or tell the GM you'll take it on a case-by-case basis if a deal is close.

I think these questions are more to get at what kind of trade value each player has, so let's assess that.

Contreras, 34 next May, became a full-time first baseman for the Cardinals this year.  Perhaps a new team would consider using him behind the plate here or there, especially if the automated ball-strike system is implemented, but we'll mostly consider him a first baseman/DH.

Contreras dealt with some minor injuries this year, but had avoided the IL until today.  His season has ended due to a right shoulder strain.  Contreras managed to post a solid 123 wRC+ in a career-high 563 plate appearances, good for 2.8 FanGraphs WAR in 135 games.

If we give Contreras some grace for having to adjust to his new defensive duties in April, it's worth noting that he had a 135 wRC+ since May.  This is a potential top-20 hitter in the game with plenty of red on his Statcast page who can arguably hang with the likes of Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper.  I don't think Contreras has that reputation, but that's what I see.  As a cherry on top, his first base defense appears to be average or better.

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Angels Designate Niko Kavadas For Assignment In Series Of Moves

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The Angels announced a series of moves prior to their game at T-Mobile Park this evening.  The club has designated infielder Niko Kavadas for assignment and transferred reliever Reid Detmers to the 60-day IL, allowing them to select the contracts of catcher Chad Wallach and reliever Connor Brogdon.  Additionally, veteran backstop Travis d’Arnaud is headed to the 7-day concussion IL, while southpaw reliever Andrew Chafin was placed on the 15-day IL retroactive to yesterday for triceps inflammation.

Kavadas, 27 next month, was drafted by the Red Sox in the 11th round out of Notre Dame back in 2021.  He was draft-eligible in 2020, but that one only went five rounds.  As Alex Speier of the Boston Globe put it when Kavadas signed with Boston the following year, “The Red Sox considered his power potential too great to ignore.”

Prior to the 2023 season, Kavadas cracked Baseball America’s top 30 prospects for the Red Sox, with a 45/high risk grade.  He was described as “unabashed about his desire to hit a homer every time he bats,” but BA noted he didn’t have much of a hit tool or a defensive home.  He reached Triple-A that year and conquered it in ’24 with 17 home runs and a 153 wRC+ in 335 plate appearances prior to being traded, but he also whiffed a third of a time.

At least year’s trade deadline, Kavadas was part of a four-player package of minor leaguers sent to the Halos by Boston for veteran reliever Luis Garcia.  The Angels selected Kavadas’ contract a few weeks later, giving the righty slugger some run as a DH/first baseman against right-handed pitching.

Kavadas wasn’t able to do much with his limited opportunity in late ’24, and failed to make the Angels out of Spring Training.  This year, he had a brief May call-up that lasted all of one pinch-hit plate appearance.  He got another brief bump to the bigs in early August and didn’t get any playing time at all.  Kavadas made it up once again on August 12th, failing to get into a game until the 20th.  He only managed seven starts before the Angels demoted him again on September 4th.

Now, the Angels have seven days to trade Kavadas or place him on outright or unconditional release waivers. Though the trade path isn’t currently an option since the deadline has passed. He spent most of this year in Triple-A, slumping to a 101 wRC+ with a strikeout rate near 31%.

Detmers, who has been throwing 96 out of the bullpen this year with a 30.1% strikeout rate, hit the 15-day IL yesterday with elbow inflammation.  He was out for the season regardless, according to the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher, who notes that the Angels “still don’t have any news to report on the results of Detmers’ MRI.” Yesterday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com wrote that the Angels “remain optimistic it isn’t a major injury.”  Detmers’ comments indicated the same.

Detmers will receive a raise on this year’s $1.825MM salary for 2026 due to his second trip through the arbitration process.  He’s under team control through 2028.

Angels catcher Logan O’Hoppe hit the 7-day IL as a victim of a Jacob Wilson backswing earlier this week, and now d’Arnaud joins him after being struck by a Julio Rodriguez swing yesterday.  Those two swings have moved Sebastian Rivero and now Wallach into the Angels’ Major League catching slots.  O’Hoppe should be back Tuesday, according to Fletcher.

Wallach was a fifth round pick by the Marlins out of Cal State Fullerton back in 2013.  He hasn’t quite matched his dad Tim’s career, as the longtime Expo and Dodger smacked 260 home runs , made five All-Star teams, and snagged three Gold Gloves at the hot corner.

Remember when the Marlins were doing things like giving Giancarlo Stanton a record extension, locking up Christian Yelich, and adding Dee Gordon via trade?  In that same active winter, they shipped Wallach to the Reds along with Anthony DeSclafani for Mat Latos.  Latos was only 27 at the time, and most observers were unaware he was nearing the end of his career as a useful Major Leaguer.  Wallach was still a 45 grade/high risk catching prospect at the time of the trade.

Wallach failed to establish himself with the Reds, allowing Marlins GM Michael Hill to simply swipe him back off waivers three years later.  Wallach caught 72 games for the 2018-21 Marlins before being claimed off waivers by the Dodgers.  He never appeared with the club, as the Angels grabbed him a week later.  Wallach played in a career-high 65 games in 2023 as a 31-year-old.  He joined the Rangers on a minor league deal in January this year but found his way back home to the Angels organization in June.  If the 33-year-old gets into a game for the Angels, it’ll be his first time in the Show in nearly two years.

With the veteran lefty Chafin out with triceps inflammation, Brogdon joins the Angels’ bullpen.  The 30-year-old righty signed a minor league deal with the Angels in January, saw his contract selected in May, elected free agency after rejecting an outright assignment in August, re-signed with the club, and now has returned to the 40-man and active rosters.

Brodgon is hardly the best big league pitcher to ever come out of Idaho’s Lewis-Clark State College – that honor clearly goes to Keith Foulke – but he put himself in the top ten with some credible work out of the Phillies’ bullpen a few years ago.  Though Brogdon has struggled in his 37 1/3 scattered relief innings for the Angels this year, he did at least restore two miles per hour on his fastball to reach 95.5 miles per hour.  That’s still a bit shy of his Phillies’ heyday, but it’s a start.

MLBTR Mailbag: Giants, Nationals, Grisham, Kim, Mets

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This week's mailbag gets into potential offseason targets for the Giants and Nationals, the potential free agencies of Trent Grisham and Ha-Seong Kim, and the Mets' current six-man rotation.

Neil asks:

Giants fan here. They are killing me with this Jekyll and Hyde act on offense this year. It's the .500 team I was expecting but they need more team speed and the OF defense gives me a headache. Who should they target in free agency?

Todd asks:

I see my Giants are hanging on (barely!) in the West, but looking forward to next year, who do they need to acquire to be given an 'A' for their off-season next March? Obviously pitching is needed, I'm interested in specific names who they should be targeting. Thanks!

Let's do a Giants rundown!

  • C: Having Patrick Bailey as the starter represents a choice to sacrifice offense at the position for Gold Glove defense.  That strategy can work, but you'd ideally make up for the dead spot in the lineup in some other way.
  • 1B: Rafael Devers seems to be improving defensively; he's been splitting time at first base with Dominic Smith.  In August, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote that the situation "could turn into a timeshare dependent on top prospect Bryce Eldridge’s development at the position."  Eldridge, 21 in October, has a 100 wRC+ in 260 Triple-A plate appearances.  He's still the 19th-ranked prospect in baseball, so if and when he figures out Triple-A, he's expected to share first base and DH with Devers.
  • 2B: Tyler Fitzgerald, the Giants' innings leader at the position this year, was optioned to Triple-A a few weeks ago.  Since then we've mostly seen Casey Schmitt, with rookie Christian Koss mixed in.  Former top prospect Marco Luciano, at times mentioned as a potential future second baseman, has spent the entire year at Triple-A and has been playing left field.
  • SS: Willy Adames is settling in with a 149 wRC+ since July.
  • 3B: Matt Chapman has had a couple of IL stints for hand injuries, but he's still having a typical good year.
  • LF: Heliot Ramos has hit decently with a 111 wRC+ (and no platoon splits), but he's been one of the game's worst defensive left fielders this year.  As such, he's been worth only 1.1 fWAR.  Ramos is under team control through 2029 and won't yet be arbitration eligible in 2026.
  • CF: Jung Hoo Lee has been solid in his first full MLB season and has a 133 wRC+ since July.
  • RF: With Mike Yastrzemski traded to Kansas City, the Giants have been giving Drew Gilbert and Luis Matos some run.  The samples are too small to really tell right now, but perhaps they could form an adequate platoon.
  • DH: It's been Devers, Smith, and Wilmer Flores here.  Smith and Flores may depart as free agents, but the Giants shouldn't do anything major here given Eldridge's trajectory and Devers' defensive limitations.

The Giants' offense this year ranks ninth in the NL with 4.37 runs scored per game.  Their wRC+ is an even 100.

That's all the way up to 118 since August, third-best in the NL.  The club has been carried by veterans Devers, Lee, and Chapman in that time, with bonus contributions from Matos and Smith.  For next year, the hope is that Eldridge can come up and contribute, but the Giants can't really count on it.

Second base seems like a clear need for the Giants.  Gleyber Torres will be a free agent again, and the trade market could offer a few options such as Luis Garcia Jr.

The Giants could use a big bat in the corner outfield.  Kyle Tucker is the obvious choice.  The versatile Cody Bellinger would also fit well in San Francisco.  Adolis Garcia would be a cheaper bounceback candidate.

For Neil's outfield defense concerns, moving on from Ramos would help.  Defensive upgrades could include Bellinger, Wilyer Abreu, and Luis Robert Jr.

What's the outlook on the starting pitching side?

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MLB Mailbag: Tucker, Bellinger, Grisham, Cardinals, Royals, Angels, Twins

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This week's mailbag looks at potential Kyle Tucker suitors, the chances of the Yankees retaining Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, the Angels' history in free agency, extension ideas for the Royals and Cardinals, and what the future holds for the Twins.

Colin asks:

Where are some realistic landing spots for Kyle Tucker this offseason?

Why not just assess the viability of Tucker for all 30 teams?  I'm sure Tucker's agents at Excel Sports Management already have.

  • White Sox: In their June statement, the team said that Justin Ishbia "will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations."  The team's long-term books are already clean.  Could Ishbia announce his presence by signing Tucker to a contract worth perhaps more than six times the team's current record deal of $75MM? Chalk it up as highly unlikely, yet still more likely than it's been in a long time.
  • Guardians: No chance.
  • Tigers: The club's dalliance with Alex Bregman last winter was notable, but that still wouldn't have been a top-three free agent deal.  Tucker is highly unlikely here based on how the Tigers have operated since Mike Ilitch passed away in 2017.
  • Royals: No chance.
  • Twins: No chance.
  • Orioles: Payroll-wise, the Orioles could manage this, but we've been saying that sort of thing for a while now.  We've only seen one offseason under David Rubenstein, and it topped out with Tyler O'Neill's $49.5MM deal, but he could theoretically surprise us.
  • Red Sox: On a team with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu, signing Tucker doesn't seem to make sense.  The Red Sox were in on Juan Soto last winter, and Duran or Abreu could be traded, so we won't rule it out quite yet.
  • Yankees: With Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger up for free agency and Jasson Dominguez failing to assert himself, there is a reasonable case to be made here for Tucker.  There's enough payroll space to make it work as well.
  • Rays: I was going to write "no chance" and move on, but Tucker is from Tampa and Patrick Zalupski should assume ownership of the Rays before the outfielder signs.  Given that Zalupski can't magically change the Rays' market size, he doesn't have a plan for a new stadium in place, and he doesn't have Steve Cohen type net worth, this is still pretty close to "no chance."
  • Blue Jays: Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho, and Addison Barger make up a typical Jays outfield right now, with George Springer, Myles Straw, and Davis Schneider also drawing some starts and Anthony Santander on the IL.  Re-signing Bo Bichette or adding starting pitching would seem more urgent, but there's no particular impediment to the Blue Jays pursuing Tucker.  Plus, Excel did the Springer deal with the Blue Jays.
  • Athletics: The A's made their statement last winter with a trio of $60-something million contracts (Luis Severino, Lawrence Butler, and Brent Rooker).  That's still a very far cry from Tucker's stratosphere, and he's not going to elect to make Sutter Health Park his new home for the next few years.
  • Astros: There's no evidence the Astros got anywhere with extension talks when they had Tucker, and no reason to think Jim Crane will break precedent and give him a huge contract on the open market.
  • Angels: With Anthony Rendon's contract almost off the books, could the Angels try for a major free agent once again?  There's no compelling reason to think so, but Arte Moreno is at least capable of swimming in these waters.
  • Mariners: The Robinson Cano deal happened nearly 12 years ago; the Mariners would likely have to similarly bowl over the competition to convince Tucker to come there.  Consider it unlikely, but not absurd.
  • Rangers: The Rangers are on track to stay under the CBT and thus reset their payor status.  Adding a fourth huge contract running into a player's late 30s might not be the best long-term move, and starting pitching seems more urgent, but a pursuit of Tucker can't be ruled out.

Moving on to the National League:

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MLB Mailbag: Kyle Tucker, Nick Lodolo, Bo Bichette, Rays, Mets

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cubs and Kyle Tucker, the Reds trading Nick Lodolo for a big bat this winter, Bo Bichette's contract, and offseason approaches for the Rays and Mets.

NE asks:

Do the Cubs and Kyle Tucker have any interest in an extension?

Tucker came out of the gates with a 157 wRC+ in 370 plate appearances through June.  That performance put him basically in a dead heat with fellow All-Star starter Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani with 4 WAR, at which point all three players were in the NL MVP race.

Tucker jammed his right ring finger on a June 1st slide.  He continued to play well, but later revealed that "a week or two after that" x-rays found a hairline fracture.  The narrative around the injury remains confusing.

Tucker posted a 173 wRC+ in June, the best month of his season.  He homered on June 28th as part of a four-hit game.  Then he went on to hit just one home run over his next 172 PA.  So the idea is that Tucker played through this injury but it only began to sap his power four weeks later, perhaps due to some mechanical change to his swing.

By mid-August, Tucker was throwing his helmet, slamming his bat, failing to run out grounders, and getting booed by Cubs fans.  On August 18th, Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced the plan to give Tucker a mental reset on the bench.  The following day, Brewers manager Pat Murphy went on 670 The Score and said, "I think Tucker is hurt. I don't have any information, but Tucker's not the same. He's hurt, and he's playing through it. He's such a class kid that he probably doesn't mention it to anyone."

Murphy's comments caused the Cubs to fess up to Tucker playing through the hairline fracture.  It was just a very odd way for this to all go down: the injury that didn't manifest itself for four weeks, and the reveal coming from a rival team's manager who either made a really good guess or actually did have some information.

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