Elias Type A/Type B Free Agents Rumors

Elias Rankings – AL Relievers

Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts just posted his projected Elias rankings for American League relievers.

  • Type A: Francisco Rodriguez, Damaso Marte, Darren Oliver.  Not an ideal situation for Oliver, as his status will act as a deterrent to other teams if the Angels offer him arbitration and he declines.  The Angels could also get the #25 pick next year if the Mets sign K-Rod.  The Mets lost the #18 pick in ’06 after signing Billy Wagner, and the Phils used it on Kyle Drabek.
  • Type B: Jamey Wright, Dennys Reyes, Alan Embree, Trever Miller.

Elias Rankings: AL Starters

Eddie Bajek attempts to project Elias rankings for American League starters here.

  • Type A: A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina.  Burnett seems likely to decline an offer of arbitration and sign elsewhere, giving the Blue Jays two draft picks as compensation.
  • Type B: Tim Wakefield, Jon Garland, Paul Byrd.  Garland seems most likely to decline an offer of arbitration and sign elsewhere, though Byrd is a candidate.

Odds and Ends: Bonds, Crow, Odalis Perez

Links for Tuesday…

  • Barry Bonds is enjoying his freedom.
  • MLB.com has a list of all the potential free agents. The Dodgers lead with 14, while the Royals and Giants have only two.
  • Brewers GM Doug Melvin may get an extension soon.
  • Rich Harden will have a shoulder exam soon, which will inform the Cubs’ decision on his $7MM option.
  • MLB.com’s Matthew Leach sees the Cardinals letting starter Braden Looper leave, but attempting to re-sign infielder Felipe Lopez.
  • The Kansas City Star’s Bill Reiter catches up with Aaron Crow, who is basically just chillin’ right now.  MLB.com’s Dick Kaegel says the Royals like Crow, but he may not be around when they draft 12th in 2009.
  • Ken Rosenthal agrees that the Rays owe their success to much more than just top draft picks.
  • Pete McElroy notes that Odalis Perez would love to re-sign with the Nationals.  Perez pitched 159.2 respectable innings but earned less than a million bucks.
  • Eddie Bajek has his final Elias rankings for NL relievers.  Type As: Ryan Dempster, Russ Springer, Juan Cruz, Doug Brocail, Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, and Jason Isringhausen.  Type Bs: Joe Beimel, Jeremy Affeldt, Brian Shouse, Bob Howry, David Weathers, Trevor Hoffman, Eric Gagne, and Brandon Lyon.  If one of these players is offered arbitration, turns it down, and signs elsewhere, his old team gets one or two draft picks.
  • MLB.com’s Spencer Fordin doesn’t see the need for the Orioles to sign Jeremy Guthrie to a long-term deal this winter.

Elias Rankings: NL Starters

Eddie Bajek has cautioned that his projected Elias rankings may not be perfect.  However, it’s the closest thing we’ve got as Eddie is the only person to publicly reverse-engineer the rankings.  With that, a look at the NL starters:

  • Type A: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, Derek Lowe, and Jamie Moyer.  Moyer is on the borderline, so he could possibly end up a Type B.  He seems likely to re-sign anyway.  The other four will be offered arbitration and could sign elsewhere, netting two draft picks for their old team.
  • Type B: Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Randy Wolf, Greg Maddux, Braden Looper.  Not all of these guys will be offered arbitration, though Wolf is a good bet.
  • Neither A nor B: Randy Johnson, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine, Odalis Perez.  Johnson just missed Type B, so he might sneak in there.  It only really affects the D’Backs.

Odds and Ends: LaRoche, Bradley, Burnett

Digging into today’s random links…

Elias Rankings: NL Relievers

Eddie Bajek has updated his projected Elias rankings, adding NL relievers.  He explains the stats used in this post.

  • Type A: Ryan Dempster, Russ Springer, Juan Cruz, Brian Fuentes, Doug Brocail, and Kerry Wood.  The Cubs will probably re-sign both of their guys.  The others stand a good chance of being offered arbitration, with Cruz and Fuentes likely to sign elsewhere and net picks for the D’Backs and Rockies.
  • Type B: Brian Shouse, Jason Isringhausen, Joe Beimel, Jeremy Affeldt, Dave Weathers, Trevor Hoffman, Brandon Lyon, and Eric Gagne.  Beimel and Lyon might receive arbitration offers.
  • Just missed Type B: Arthur Rhodes, Luis Ayala, Will Ohman, LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Herges.  Many other impending free agents have no chance of Type B.

Elias Ranking Update: AL Relievers

I don’t believe we’ve mentioned this yet…Eddie Bajek added the AL relievers for his projected Elias rankings.  He notes that these rankings can swing quite a bit in the remaining three weeks of the season.

  • Type As: Francisco Rodriguez, Damaso Marte, and…Darren Oliver?  No doubt the Yankees will buy Marte’s $6MM option out for $250K, but will they offer him arbitration?  He is earning $2MM this year, and has been terrible for them.
  • Type Bs: Jamey Wright, Dennys Reyes, and Alan Embree.  Wright and Reyes are earning $1MM this year; Embree $3MM with a club option for ’09 at the same salary.  Perhaps the Twins will offer arb to Reyes.
  • Just missed Type B: Kyle Farnsworth, Trever MillerEddie Guardado is not close to Type B status.

Odds And Ends: Millar, Lowe, Jays, Ibanez, Garciaparra, Posey

A few notes from the MLBiverse…

  • Kevin Millar wants to return to the Orioles in ’09. Of course, many feel the O’s will make a run at Mark Teixeira this off-season which would decrease Millar’s chances of re-signing, unless both sides feel he can be a full-time DH. Millar made $2.75MM this season.
  • Detroit Tiger Thoughts has made an adjustment to the projected Elias ranking for Derek Lowe. He will indeed be a Type A free agent this off-season.
  • The original article is missing from the Toronto Sun, but Sportsnet has the piece in which Paul Godfrey says the Jays are unlikely to include opt-out clauses in any future contracts based on the current situation with AJ Burnett. Some believe Burnett will exercise his opt-out clause and declare himself a free agent this winter.
  • Jim Street says the value of Raul Ibanez goes beyond stats…However, it remains to be seen if his value to Seattle will go beyond the two draft picks they would receive for letting him walk this off-season.
  • Michael Schwartz says another free agent-to-be, Nomar Garciaparra, has proven his worth to the Dodgers in his new role coming off the bench.
  • Even though Brian Sabean went to see Buster Posey play in person, he ruled out any chance of Posey making his major league debut this season.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.

Week In Review: 8/31 – 9/6

Sunday afternoon means it’s time to look back at the week and recap the major stories here on MLBTR. Let’s take a look:

  • Arizona made a move to help replace Orlando Hudson when they acquired David Eckstein from Toronto for minor league pitcher Chad Beck. Second major move we saw from the D’Backs in August, and it seems like a fair price to add some stability to the middle of their infield for the remainder of the season.
  • Brief update on the Pedro Alvarez drama. The Pirates will not re-negotiate his contract even if that option is somehow allowed.
  • Tim began a couple of new series this week, one being the Offseason Outlook series, which will take a look at potential signings and moves for each team this offseason. So far, the Giants, Mariners, Padres, and Orioles have been covered.
  • Tim also broke down some of the free agent market, taking a look at free agent starters sorted by strikeout rate, and position players sorted by on-base percentage.
  • Curious to see if your team’s pitchers will be Type-A or B free agents? Here’s a look at the Elias rankings for both American League and National League free agent starters.
  • Speaking of starting pitchers, Randy Wolf (Type B) has decided that his desire to pitch closer to home wasn’t as important as he originally thought. He’ll be open to all options this offseason. Wolf has pitched well since being acquired by Houston, despite moving to a more hitter-friendly park.
  • Can’t say I’m surprised, but if you any Seattle fans were hoping for a big-name free agent this offseason, you’ll have to wait a bit longer.

Elias Ranking Update: NL Starters

Once again we turn to Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts, who has cracked the Elias formula.  Today, National League starters have been added.  Thoughts:

  • Four starters project to have Type A status: C.C. Sabathia, Kyle Lohse, Ben Sheets, and Oliver Perez.  Lohse and Perez are solid pitchers, but they’re less attractive given the loss of a draft pick.  Teams like the Mets, Astros, Cardinals, and Yankees may be searching for starting pitching and may have unprotected first-round picks to lose.
  • Type Bs: Randy Wolf, Randy Johnson, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Jamie Moyer, John Smoltz, and Greg Maddux.  You have to like Lowe not costing a draft pick.
  • Odalis Perez, Braden Looper, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, and others you’d expect are not Type A or B.  No one loses a pick, no one gains a pick.