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The 10-Year Anniversary Of A Notable Cardinals Signing

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We’ve reached the 10-year anniversary of a Cardinals move that has paid significant dividends for the franchise. It was on this date in 2010 that the Cardinals signed right-hander Carlos Martinez out of the Dominican Republic for a $1.5MM bonus. The deal came a year after a $150K agreement Martinez had with the Red Sox fell through because of questions over his name and birthday, as Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com detailed back in 2013.

Martinez’s issues were ultimately sorted out after the Boston deal collapsed, and St. Louis has been the beneficiary. After a torrid run through the minors, Martinez ended up debuting in the majors in 2013 as a hyped prospect, even making five appearances in relief against Boston in St. Louis’ World Series loss to the Red Sox. He has since established himself as a key part of the Cardinals’ pitching staff.

Martinez truly broke out as a starter in 2015, the first season of a three-year, 580-inning stretch in which he logged a 3.24 ERA/3.59 FIP with 8.92 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 and a 54 percent groundball rate. The Cardinals made a sizable commitment to Martinez after the second of those seasons, signing him to an extension worth a guaranteed $51MM over five years in February 2017. Martinez is down to his last two guaranteed seasons on that pact, though the Cardinals will be able to control him for 2022 and ’23 via club options; that is, if they’re willing to pay him $17MM in the first year and/or $18MM in the second (otherwise, they could buy him out in either season for $500K).

Martinez seemed to be on pace to have those options picked up just a couple years ago, but it’s less clear what his future holds at this point. Now 28 years old, Martinez spent the majority of the previous two seasons as a reliever – an effective one at that – owing in part to injuries. Dating back to 2018, he has tossed 167 innings of 3.13 ERA/3.34 FIP ball with 9.16 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a typically above-average grounder percentage of 51.1.

All 48 of the hard-throwing Martinez’s appearances last year came out of the Cardinals’ bullpen as he recovered from shoulder issues, and he even converted 24 of 27 save opportunities while filling in for the injured Jordan Hicks as their closer. However, before the coronavirus pandemic reared its ugly head and caused baseball to shut down, the 28-year-old looked as if he was on track to return to his prior role in the St. Louis rotation in 2020.

No matter which job Martinez takes on this season (if there is one), it’s fair to say his production as both a starter and a reliever has been a boon to the Cardinals. Ten years ago today, they landed a two-time All-Star for a relative pittance.

Latest On Payment Of Team Employees

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April 20: The Reds, Marlins and Red Sox are also committing to paying baseball operations employees through the end of May, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter thread).

April 19, 9:20pm: The White Sox will also continue to pay employees through the least the end of May, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine tweets.

2:57pm: MLB commissioner Rob Manfred is expected to announce on Monday a decision that will allow teams to furlough non-playing personnel or reduce their pay, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Beginning May 1, MLB will suspend its Uniform Employee Contracts, allowing—but not requiring—teams to take such measures. The decision will affect a group that includes managers, coaches, some front office personnel, and others.

It’s important to note that some teams have already declared their intent to pay employees through the end of May. Others may still follow suit, but the goal of these measures is that “clubs facing the most significant financial duress” will be afforded some flexibility during the season delay. So the extent to which teams will make use of these measures is unknown, but the length of the delay will likely impact teams’ thinking.

The Braves, Phillies, and Giants have already committed to paying their employees through at least May, and the hope is that many more teams will opt to do the same. Phillies owner John Middleton expressed his confidence that games will take place this year, rendering layoffs and budget cuts unnecessary. And while there’s little certainty about the timeframe for baseball’s return, we hope that other owners will feel similarly in the near future. Indeed, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted yesterday that “most teams” are expected to make similar commitments.

NL West Notes: Giants, Espinoza, Rockies

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Much of the focus on the trade that sent right-hander Mark Melancon from the Giants to the Braves last July has centered on the surprising fact that the Braves were willing to take on all of the $14MM owed to Melancon in 2020. So much so, it seems, that the return the Giants received is often entirely overlooked. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes, however, that the Giants are excited by the potential of righty Tristan Beck — a 23-year-old fourth rounder from the 2018 draft who saw his velocity trend upward during his run in the Arizona Fall League this year. Beck posted an ugly ERA (5.65) but encouraging FIP/xFIP numbers (3.04, 2.89) in eight starts with Atlanta’s Class-A Advanced affiliate. In the same number of innings with the Giants’ High-A club, Beck’s ERA dropped to 2.27 as he maintained sharp K/9 and BB/9 marks that carried into the fall league. Baseball America ranked Beck 14th among Giants prospects and called him a potential fourth starter, noting that his new organization’s decision to shift his four-seam focus to the top of the zone has improved his overall effectiveness.

A bit more from the division…

  • Padres prospect Anderson Espinoza had been eyeing a summer return from last April’s Tommy John surgery, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic in his latest reader mailbag. His timeline is now TBD, and the leaguewide stoppage has created the risk that he’ll miss an incredible fourth straight season of games. Still just 22 years of age, Espinoza was considered to be one of baseball’s premier minor league arms when the Red Sox shipped him to San Diego in return for a year and a half of Drew Pomeranz. But he’s twice undergone Tommy John surgery — most recently late last April — and now represents something of a wild card in a deep Padres farm system. His last appearance in a minor league game came back on Aug. 31, 2016.
  • Although no one quite knows what the draft will look like, Rockies scouting director Bill Schmidt is confident that his club is prepared and ready whenever the date does roll around, per Kyle Newman of the Denver Post. Rox scout Jay Matthews expressed to Newman that the ability to connect with players will be all the more crucial this year, as nondrafted players will be capped at just $20K signing bonuses. “Since we’re all going to be under the same money figure for free agents, it’s going to come down to relationships that the area scouts have established with the prospects,” said Matthews, likening this year’s atypical signing process for undrafted players to the college recruiting process. Newman points out that the Rockies have trended toward college players in recent drafts, with a particular emphasis on pitching. Colorado will have three of the first 46 picks in the draft — whatever form it takes.

Derek Jeter Forgoing Salary Indefinitely; Other Marlins Execs Taking Pay Cuts

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Marlins CEO Derek Jeter is forgoing his salary on an indefinite basis, SportsGrid’s Craig Mish reports (on Twitter). Other high-ranking Marlins executives have also taken pay cuts as the organization continues to evaluate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Additional cost-cutting measures that the Marlins’ executive and ownership club may take aren’t clear, but the cuts among some of the team’s brass will surely aid in avoiding layoffs and furloughs elsewhere in the organization. The news comes at a time when Major League Baseball is reportedly set to announce that clubs can begin to furlough or cut pay of non-playing personnel (e.g. coaches, scouts, executives). In late March, all 30 teams agreed to pay non-player employees through the end of April. MLB teams have also pledged $1MM apiece to help cover lost wages for gameday/park employees during the shutdown. Some teams have taken further steps to help cover those part-time wages.

The impact that pay reduction among club leadership will have throughout the organization can’t yet be known, but it’s nevertheless a notable gesture. It’s easy to cynically say that Jeter can afford to do so — indeed, he earned more than $265MM in player salaries during his career and was able to purchase a minority stake in the Miami franchise — but that much is true of many owners and high-ranking executives who have not opted to do so (both in and outside of baseball).

It’s of course possible that other clubs have already taken similar measures — top Rangers execs were reported to be taking cuts earlier this month — or that they’re prepping to do so in the near future. But it also seems inevitable that the economic weight of the pandemic will be felt throughout the league as uncertainty regarding the state of play persists.

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Corner Outfielders

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In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, third basemen and center fielders who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Next up: corner outfielders (players’ ages for the 2021 campaign are listed in parentheses).

Top of the Class

  • Mookie Betts (28): Betts is the standout among not only at his position but on the entire free-agent market. He’s been worth at least six wins above replacement (bWAR) in each of the past five years while averaging 149 games played and 683 plate appearances. The revenue loss in 2020 could impact the extent of the bidding war that emerges for Betts, who might’ve otherwise been in line to command the largest free-agent contract in history. He’ll receive a qualifying offer.

Potential Regulars (based on 2019 playing time)

  • George Springer (31): We listed Springer as the top of the class in center field, but a club with a strong center fielder could certainly sign Springer and plug him into right field. Since his MLB debut in 2014, Springer has been at least 26 percent better than the league-average hitter in all but the 2018 season, by measure of wRC+. That year, he was a “mere” 18 percent better. Despite being limited to 122 games last year, he connected on 39 Springer Dingers. A qualifying offer is a given.
  • Nick Castellanos (29): Castellanos landed a four-year, $64MM deal that allows him to opt out after each season. That may not happen on the heels of a shortened or canceled season, but if we see some games and an approximation of the outrageous .321/.356/.646 pace he showed in two months with the Cubs, Castellanos could look for a longer deal — especially given his relative youth. He’d surely receive a qualifying offer if things got to that point.
  • Marcell Ozuna (30): Ozuna had multi-year offers in free agency but bet on himself with a big one-year pact in Atlanta. He has one elite offensive season in a track record that is otherwise filled with solid, above-average campaigns. He can’t receive another qualifying offer
  • Michael Brantley (34): Brantley has been among the league’s toughest strikeouts for the better part of a decade, and only two qualified hitters posted lower strikeout rates last year. He also hit .311/.372/.503 — his fifth straight season of at least a .299 average and .357 OBP (excluding 2016, when he was limited to 11 games by a shoulder operation). When he’s healthy, “Dr. Smooth” is a flat-out hitting machine.
  • Joc Pederson (29): Pederson a career .188/.263/.310 slash against lefties five-plus years into what has been a somewhat strange tenure with the Dodgers. But Pederson is young, plays good defense and obliterates right-handed pitching — and he’s still only had 375 plate appearances against southpaws due to L.A.’s heavy use of platoons. He probably won’t ever be a great hitter against lefties, but he might be better than he’s been given the chance to show. Even if not, Pederson can still rake as the large half of a platoon.
  • Alex Gordon (37): It’ll surely be “Royals or retire” again for the Kansas City icon.
  • Josh Reddick (34): Reddick still plays a solid right field, and he’s hit lefties better over the past three seasons. His bat has been a bit below average over the past two years on the whole, but he could be an affordable short-term option.
  • Ryan Braun (36): Braun’s $15MM mutual option will likely be bought out ($4MM), but the slugger still showed that he can hit in 2019: .282/.343/.505. Braun has averaged only 460 PAs per year dating back to 2017 and has been tried out a bit at first base.
  • Robbie Grossman (31): The A’s gave Grossman a career-high 482 PAs last year, but his production dipped. After three above-average seasons, he hit .240/.334/.348. The switch-hitter is a walk machine (career 12.7%) who has greatly improved his defense in recent seasons.

Versatile Infielder/Outfielders

  • Marwin Gonzalez (32): The ultra-versatile Gonzalez can play all four infield spots and both outfield corners. He signed later in Spring Training last year but after shaking off some rust through the first two weeks of the regular season, he slashed .274/.331/.435 through his final 103 games (426 PAs)
  • Brad Miller (31): Miller is something of a “jack of all trades, master of none,” but his 2019 campaign was a productive — albeit in a tiny sample of 170 plate appearances. He’s struggled to produce at a consistent level, but Miller keeps landing big league gigs as a bench piece.
  • Leury Garcia (30): Garcia saw a career-high 618 PAs last year and hit .279/.310/.378. He doesn’t walk much, but Garcia has hit .270 or better in three straight seasons while adding some value on the bases and playing six positions (all three outfield spots, second base, third base, shortstop).

Part-Time Lefty Bats

  • Jay Bruce (34): Bruce hit lefties better than righties in a small sample last year, but platoon issues have been a theme for much of his career. The power is still huge (26 homers, .306 ISO, 333 PAs in 2019), but Bruce’s days as a regular might be behind him.
  • Matt Joyce (36): Platoon issues notwithstanding, Joyce is a strong source of OBP thanks to an always-strong walk rate that has ticked up to 15 percent over the past four years.
  • Nick Markakis (37): An increasingly crowded outfield should limit Markakis’ time if play is able to resume in 2020. He keeps on hitting righties and is lauded as a clubhouse leader, but Markakis is a .265/.319/.363 hitter against lefties over the past five seasons.

Part-Time Righty Bats

  • Yoenis Cespedes (35): Cespedes hasn’t topped 81 games since 2016 and didn’t play at all in 2019. Everyone know how good he can be when he’s healthy, but who knows whether we’ll ever see that version of “La Potencia” again?
  • Steven Souza Jr. (32): Souza’s entire 2019 season was wiped out by a catastrophic spring knee injury. He has a recent 30-homer season on his resume, but the stoppage of play in 2020 isn’t doing him any favors in terms of reestablishing himself.
  • Hunter Pence (38): Pence posted a monster half season with the Rangers last year and returned to the Giants on a one-year deal, so he’ll see some outfield work if play picks back up. By the time 2021 rolls around, DH at-bats like the ones he saw in Texas might be more crucial.

Club Options to Watch

  • Brett Gardner ($10MM option w/ $2.5MM buyout) and Adam Eaton ($10.5MM option w/ $1.5MM buyout) are both plenty productive veterans. If either of these options is bought out, it seems likely to be due to a dip in production that calls into question their status as a regular.

Obligatory Mention

  • Giancarlo Stanton will be able to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM on his contract, but that seemed like a far-fetched concept even before a February calf injury left him questionable for the previously scheduled opener. The slugger isn’t getting that kind of coin in free agency, but perhaps the extended downtime will help him to heal up and avoid the IL in the future.

Quick Hits: Warren, Yankees, ChiSox, Garland, Cubs

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It was on this day back in 1890 that the Dodgers played their first game as members of the National League, as the team then known as the Brooklyn Bridegrooms dropped a 15-9 result to the Boston Beaneaters.  Brooklyn switched leagues after winning the American Association championship in 1889, and immediately continued their success against their new competition, posting an 86-43 record in 1890 to win the NL title.  This was the first of 23 NL pennants won by the Dodgers franchise, tied with the Giants for the most in league history.

Some notes from modern-day baseball…

  • Adam Warren headed into the free agent market after undergoing Tommy John surgery last September, so amidst all of that uncertainty, he “didn’t look anywhere else” once he received interest from the Yankees, the right-hander told George A. King III of the New York Post.  Having already pitched for the Yankees in two separate stints earlier in his career, Warren said the Bronx Bombers “were my ideal team….It was a situation where I didn’t have that much bargaining power and I wanted to catch on with a team that would take a chance on me.  I was very fortunate the Yankees wanted to do that.”  Warren signed a two-year minor league contract with New York, with the expectation being that he would spend the 2020 season recovering from surgery and be ready to pitch in 2021.  If a reworked 2020 schedule leads to games deep into October or November, Warren admitted that “kind of tempts me to come back quicker, but the timing of the surgery it would feel like I am rushing back.  The most realistic goal is treat this as a gone year.”  The recovery process seems to be going rather smoothly for Warren, who said “fortunately I haven’t missed a beat too much with my rehab” even while being limited to working out at his home.
  • The Jose Quintana-for-Eloy Jimenez (and Dylan Cease) trade may not be a fond memory for Cubs fans, though an even more lopsided deal between Chicago’s two teams took place back in 1998.  The Athletic’s James Fegan looks back at what he described as the best trade in at least the modern era of White Sox history, when the Sox acquired Jon Garland from the Cubs in July 1998 for right-handed reliever Matt Karchner.  The Cubs wanted some bullpen help for their playoff drive, and picked up Karchner even though he was in the midst of struggles that lasted both before and after the trade.  Karchner pitched two more injury-plagued years and was out of baseball after the 2000 season, while Garland went on to become a mainstay of the White Sox rotation.  Garland averaged 179 innings per season from 2000-07, and played a major role for the Southsiders’ World Series-winning team in 2005.

2019-20 Offseason In Review Series

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Over the last two months, MLBTR has continued its annual Offseason In Review series, looking at what all 30 teams did or didn’t do this winter.  Though this offseason has unfortunately continued on longer than anyone could have imagined, we’ll still publish an entry for every team, gauging how their transactions have set them up for the 2020 season.

Here is the updated list of teams covered to date:

AL West

AL Central

AL East

NL West

NL Central

NL East

Quick Hits: Bautista, Holland, Pirates, MLB Economics

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We’ll round up a few notes from around baseball this weekend.

  • Last month, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that José Bautista had been eyeing a return as a two-way player. While his hope of representing the Dominican Republic in the Olympic qualifying tournament was dashed by the event’s postponement, Bautista doesn’t appear to be giving up his two-way dream. He tells Sportsnet he would consider trying the dual role in the 2021 World Baseball Classic. Interestingly, he seems open to the idea of representing Team Spain (his father is a Spanish citizen, thus granting him eligibility), Sportsnet adds, if the Dominican team doesn’t offer him a roster spot. The former Blue Jays’ star admitted it’d be a long shot for him to ever pitch in the majors, but noted he’d be “ready just in case.”
  • Derek Holland was on track to crack the Pirates’ season-opening rotation prior to the shutdown, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He’d likely have slotted in behind Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams and Mitch Keller for first-year manager Derek Shelton. If the 2020 season is indeed played, Holland would presumably still figure to grab a roster spot, particularly since any playing scenario is likely to involve significant roster expansion. Holland’s minor-league deal originally called for a $1.25MM base salary if he were to make the club, reported ESPN. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained this week, though, player salaries would be paid on a prorated basis in the event of a shortened season.
  • Major League Baseball economics are sure to be rocked by the coronavirus hiatus, notes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. It’s obviously too early to know exactly how teams, players and the league will respond to the loss of gate receipts. Nevertheless, Speier speaks with a handful of sports economists (and Scott Boras) about ways in which MLB could look to mitigate their losses in attendance revenue. As former SABR president Vince Gennaro points out, fan-free games might force teams to explore innovative media packages as alternatives to in-person attendance. Speier’s piece is well worth a full perusal for those interested in the sport’s economic future.

The Mariners Might Have Found A Core Piece For The Future

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The Mariners’ trade for Tom Murphy a little over a year ago didn’t turn heads. Murphy had once been a notable prospect in the Rockies’ organization, but the shine had seemingly worn off. He saw sporadic action for Colorado between 2015-18, but his .219/.271/.439 line in 210 cumulative plate appearances was underwhelming. Even more disheartening, the Rockies themselves seemingly soured on him. Over those four seasons, the club gave more playing time to all of Tony Wolters, Nick Hundley, Chris Iannetta and Dustin Garneau, en route to largely underwhelming results. Even amidst that suboptimal situation, Murphy didn’t earn himself a long look.

The out-of-options Murphy bounced from the Rockies to the Giants on waivers last spring. After San Francisco decided he wasn’t in line to make the active roster, they shipped him to Seattle for a minimal return (minor-league pitcher Jesus Ozoria). That might have been a coup.

Murphy shined in 2019, his most extensive action to date. He and Omar Narváez quietly combined for a 121 wRC+, the best offensive production by a catching tandem in MLB. Murphy was a big part of that, having hit .273/.324/.535 (126 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 281 plate appearances. Unlike the bat-first Narváez, Murphy also rated well defensively. He drew plaudits from Baseball Prospectus for his blocking and pitch framing, while his 39% caught stealing rate was well above-average. All told, he rated as a top 25 defender at the position by both Defensive Runs Saved and BP’s Fielding Runs Above Average.

Pairing huge power production with above-average defense, Murphy was one of the game’s most valuable catchers last season. His 3.2 fWAR ranked fifth at the position, trailing J.T. Realmuto, Yasmani Grandal, Mitch Garver and Christian Vázquez. Of that group, only fellow breakout slugger Garver logged a partial season’s worth of playing time as Murphy did.

It’s unlikely Murphy will maintain that level of production moving forward, as there are some red flags in his offensive profile. His .340 BABIP masked a 31% strikeout rate. That’ll almost certainly regress moving forward, particularly given Murphy’s fly-ball heavy approach and below-average speed. He’s also never been one to draw many walks, and that continued even amidst his power barrage. But even if Murphy ends up a low-OBP hitter, there’s plenty to like about the profile.

The right-handed hitter drew plaudits for his raw power as a prospect. While the baseball composition no doubt played some role in his home run frenzy, he hits the ball hard and frequently gets it in the air. He’s a strong bet to hit for much more power than is typical of the position. And Murphy’s 71.1% contact rate, while below-average, isn’t catastrophic. Skeptical Mariners’ fans could have visions of Mike Zunino. Zunino, though, never connected on more than 67.4% of his swings in a season. There are some similarities in the players’ general profiles, but Murphy already makes more contact than Seattle’s former catcher ever has.

The 29-year-old looks like a potential core piece of the Mariners’ rebuild. Narváez has been traded away, so Murphy has his clearest path to playing time yet (although Austin Nola was expected to be a highly-utilized #2 before the shutdown). Controlled through 2023, he’s squarely within the club’s anticipated contention window.

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