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Manfred Expects 2020 Season To Resume; Spectators Still Possible?

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In a memorandum issued to baseball operations employees around the game, commissioner Rob Manfred stated that he “fully anticipate[s] baseball will return this season,” per a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN.com.

The message was delivered alongside less optimistic news: while already expected, the league has officially suspended the contracts of uniformed non-player employees and other baseball ops staffers. Many clubs have nevertheless promised salaries through at least the end of May, though not all have done so.

Manfred also acknowledged that it’s “very difficult to predict with any accuracy the timeline for resumption of our season.” The persistent message from the league and from public health officials largely remains the same: the course of the disease and broader public response and needs will largely dictate what’s possible for baseball.

It’s still notable to hear such relatively hopeful messaging from the commissioner. The league has continued to gin up potential scenarios for getting the 2020 campaign underway. The latest is a three-state possibility.

Like most of the ideas floated to this point, the latest concept would focus on delivering games on television but without spectators on hand. But it’s not yet clear that MLB is giving up entirely on hosting fans at contests at some point in 2020.

In a chat with Jack Curry of YES Network (Twitter link), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases chief Dr. Anthony Fauci contemplated a scenario in which there could possibly be some in-person attendance in 2020. Labeling in-person attendance “conceivable,” Fauci nevertheless cautioned that it’s likelier the game will only return to our screens in the near-term. Ultimately, he said, “it’s gonna be the virus that determines what the timetable is.”

It’s still largely speculative at this point, but a paying gate would certainly help the league deal with some of the thorniest issues it faces. A full-throated disagreement blossomed yesterday between the league and union over player salaries in a no-fan scenario. And legal action is brewing over the lack of refunds for 2020 tickets.

MLB Ticket Lawsuit Seeks Class Action Status

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In a lawsuit filed recently in U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, a pair of fans allege that MLB, its teams, and a host of ticket re-sellers have wrongly refused to refund ticket costs and associated fees relating to the postponed 2020 season. Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times are among those to cover the filing.

The would-be class representatives cover the two groups seeking relief: one is a partial season ticketholder and the other bought single-game tickets. In both cases, it seems, full or partial refunds have not been available because MLB continues to treat games as being postponed rather than cancelled.

Reflecting its attempt to achieve class certification, the suit doesn’t just go after the specific teams and ticket agencies involved in those cases. The complaint lists all thirty teams and four ticket companies: official MLB partner StubHub along with Ticketmaster, Live Nation, and Last Minute Transactions.

We are now several weeks into the scheduled 2020 MLB season with no end in sight to the shutdown. Most of the current chatter has surrounded the possibility of returning to play without fans in attendance — an outcome that would obviously warrant a refund.

But the league has yet to formally abandon hope of a full 2020 season, providing at least partial or temporary public relations and legal cover for the fact that individual fans’ funds are still sitting in the bank accounts of these large companies. Per Rogers, the eventual plan is likely “to offer credit toward tickets for 2021 if no games are played this summer.”

While these businesses are trying to work through surprising, difficult, and wholly unprecedented issues, many individuals are dealing with yet tougher times. And there’s little doubt that the money will ultimately have to be returned if the tickets can’t be honored for the 2020 season. The ESPN report does seem to indicate that the 2021 credit scenario would be presented as an alternative to a refund in the (exceedingly likely) event that games are indeed cancelled. The named defendants have yet to respond in court to the initial filing.

The lawsuit, then, is likely to spur battles over timing and other specifics — if, at least, its plaintiffs are successful at achieving class certification. There’ll surely also be a big fight over where the suit should be heard and what law will apply. As Shaikin notes, the initial pleading asserts claims arising under several uniquely consumer-protective California statutes.

The Royals’ Outfield Of Infielders

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Alex Gordon’s story is familiar to most baseball fans. The No. 2 overall draft pick in 2005 was soon ranked the game’s No. 2 overall prospect by Baseball America. With a lefty-swinging third baseman being touted as the next face of the franchise, George Brett parallels were (unfairly) drawn. The hype was substantial, and when Gordon arrived on the scene, he struggled to live up to those lofty expectations.

Gordon was worth 4.8 WAR through his first two big league seasons, per both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. His next two seasons were miserable — shortened by torn cartilage in his hip (2009) and a fractured thumb (2010). By the time he’d made it through four MLB campaigns, Gordon owned a career .244/.328/.405 (93 wRC+). Defensively, his work at third base wasn’t well regarded (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, -4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating). He began ceding playing time to Alberto Callaspo at third base and was moved to left field during the 2010 season.

The Royals remained patient, however, and Gordon rewarded that faith was a massive breakout in 2011. Suddenly Gordon looked like the franchise cornerstone everyone had hoped. He hit .303/.376/.502 (140 wRC+) and, perhaps even more surprisingly, graded out as one of the best defensive left fielders in recent history (+20 DRS, +12.2 UZR). Almost overnight, Gordon was a six-WAR player. He settled in as an OBP machine with elite defense, solid baserunning and some pop in his bat, and Gordon’s production was a significant factor in Kansas City’s consecutive World Series appearances in 2014-15.

We’re coming up on a decade of Gordon in left field. He’s seen Jarrod Dyson, Alex Rios, Lorenzo Cain, Nori Aoki and numerous others cycle through the other outfield slots, but Gordon has remained the constant. And now, as the organization works to emerge from its rebuild in the next couple of seasons, the third-baseman-turned-star-left-fielder is joined in the outfield by … another pair of infielders.

Hunter Dozier never carried the same hype as Gordon, although his No. 8 overall selection in 2013 was only six spots behind Gordon’s draft slot. Dozier was a surprise pick there — ultimately a cost-saving selection designed to offer a larger bonus to Sean Manaea a ways later. That’s not to say Dozier wasn’t a well-regarded draft prospect — he was widely expected to be a day one pick — but top 10 overall was still a surprise.

Dozier struggled through much of his time in the low minors before surprising with a huge .296/.366/.533 showing between Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. He parlayed that into his first promotion to the big leagues but appeared in only eight games. An oblique tear and wrist surgery wiped out most of his 2017 season, and when Dozier finally got a big league look in 2018, he hit .229/.278/.395 in 388 plate appearances. His 28.1 percent strikeout rate was among the highest in the league, his 6.2 percent walk rate was low, and his glovework was poorly rated. FanGraphs pegged him at -0.8 WAR; Baseball Reference placed a ghastly -1.7 on his overall efforts.

Still, Dozier felt that he finished out the ’18 season well after missing ’17, telling Lynn Worthy of the K.C. Star in the offseason that he “found” himself again late in the year. That comment might’ve been met with eye-rolls from some fans at the time, but no one’s questioning him now.

In 2019, Dozier cut his strikeout rate by three percentage points, upped his walk rate by the same number and saw upticks in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and launch angle. He swung less often, chased pitches out of the zone at a 30.1 percent clip (compared to 2018’s 35.5 percent) and improved his contact rate. In essence, Dozier stopped chasing so many bad pitches and saw his contact quality improve along with his walk rate. That’s a good recipe for any hitter.

The results speak for themselves. In 586 plate appearances, Dozier broke out with a .279/.348/.522 slash. His 26 home runs topped any of his minor league season totals, and Dozier kicked in another 29 doubles and a whopping 10 triples. That last number is surprising, especially for a player who only swiped two bases, but Dozier actually ranks in the 80th percentile among MLB hitters in terms of average sprint speed.

Defense still seemed to be problematic, though. Despite making strides, his work at third was rated below average, and the Royals eventually began giving Dozier some looks in right field. That sprint speed would certainly play well in the outfield, and scouting reports have long since touted his arm strength. MLB.com regularly put a 55 on his arm, while FanGraphs had a 60 on his arm in his final season of prospect eligibility. If Dozier can get comfortable with his outfield reads and keep hitting, there’s little reason to think he can’t be a solid Major League right fielder. And with Maikel Franco signed over the winter to step in at third base, it seems that right field is indeed Dozier’s most obvious path to at-bats.

Manning center field between Gordon and Dozier will be now-former second baseman Whit Merrifield. The two-time stolen base champ and the hits leader in the American League in both 2018 and 2019, Merrifield broke into the big leagues as a 27-year-old second baseman who was never considered a high-end prospect. The former ninth-round pick was considered more of a potential utility option, but he showed his aptitude for hitting almost immediately.

Merrifield’s speed and bat-to-ball skills were on display almost immediately in the Majors, and by the midway point of the 2017 season it was clear that he was far more than a utility option — lack of fanfare surrounding his arrival in the Majors or not. In his three full MLB seasons, Merrifield has hit .298/.348/.454 with 47 home runs, 116 doubles, 19 triples and 99 stolen bases. And despite having more than 3000 innings of quality glovework at second base under his belt, Merrifield appears to be the Royals’ first answer for the their current center field void.

That’s more a testament to Merrifield’s versatility than anything else. His ability to slide into center field will allow the club a longer look at Nicky Lopez at second base, although Merrifield will surely still see some reps at second base at various points whenever play resumes.

If that experiment doesn’t work, though, it seems likelier that it’ll be due to struggles of Lopez at second base than because of Merrifield’s work in center. Merrifield has already given the Royals more than 1100 innings of roughly average defense across all three outfield spots. Similarly, if Franco proves unable to tap into the potential he once showed, Dozier could either move back to the hot corner or the organization could take a look at Kelvin Gutierrez in a full-time role at third base.

That Dozier and Merrifield could line up in the outfield on a fairly regular basis certainly doesn’t bode well for out-of-options outfielders Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling. Both may have been in line to make the MLB roster out of camp because of that lack of options, but neither has produced in the Majors. Most are aware of Phillips’ highlight-reel arm and penchant for eye-popping assists, but his strikeout levels have been alarming. Starling, a former top 10 pick himself, has yet to deliver on the raw ability that led to that draft status. Both will get some looks in the outfield, and on those days, Dozier and Merrifield can slot back into the infield as needed.

At various points in recent years, the Royals likely envisioned both Dozier and Merrifield holding down key spots in the lineup, but slotting in alongside Gordon in the outfield probably wasn’t the way they had things scripted. The team’s willingness to move players around has panned out in the past, though, and their ability to do so with Merrifield and Dozier could allow them to get a look at several young options around the field.

MLBTR Poll: Third Base Building Blocks

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Major League Baseball boasts a high number of quality third basemen, evidenced in part by the fact that nine regulars at the position totaled at least 4.5 fWAR last season. The Athletics’ Matt Chapman and the Red Sox’s Rafael Devers finished in the top five in that category, and as players who are controllable for the foreseeable future and only in their 20s, they represent a pair of the top building blocks in the game. The question, though, is which player you’d rather have going forward.

The easy answer (or so it seems) is Chapman, whose career production has trounced Devers’ since the two debuted in 2017. Not only is he a defensive wizard, but Chapman can flat-out hit. The soon-to-be 27-year-old’s all-around excellence had led to 15.5 fWAR thus far, including back-to-back seasons of 6.0 fWAR or better. He’s now coming off a career-best campaign as a power hitter in 2019, when he batted .249/.342/.506 (125 wRC+) with 36 home runs in 670 plate appearances.

Chapman still has four years of team control left, including one more pre-arb season (that’s if there is MLB in 2020). The same goes for Devers, so the two are even in that regard. As mentioned, Chapman’s output has crushed Devers’ in the aggregate. However, Devers closed the gap a season ago with a 5.9-fWAR showing, and he’s also several years younger than Chapman. Devers, who won’t even turn 24 until October, was roughly a league-average offensive player from 2017-18, but the proverbial light bulb went on last season during a .311/.361/.555 effort (132 wRC+) in which he slugged 32 homers over 702 PA.

Devers has nothing on Chapman at third – the former put up minus-10 DRS and plus-2.7 UZR last year; the latter recorded an otherworldly plus-34 DRS and plus-14.8 UZR – but they’re close in terms of offensive prowess. And Devers is so much younger than Chapman that it’s hard not to take that into consideration when comparing the two. Going by fWAR, Chapman was the third-most valuable third baseman in baseball in 2019. Devers was fourth. You can’t lose with either player, but all things considered, whom would you rather have heading into the future?

(Poll link for app users)

Matt Chapman or Rafael Devers?
Chapman 63.89% (2,415 votes)
Devers 36.11% (1,365 votes)
Total Votes: 3,780

The Effects Of The Largest Contract In Indians History

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We updated each major league team’s largest contract of all-time last week. Nothing has changed of late for the Indians, whose biggest guarantee remains the three-year, $60MM pact they gave first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion in advance of the 2017 season. That ties the Pirates (six years, $60MM for Jason Kendall) for the least expensive sum on the list, which further indicates that the Indians probably won’t be able to keep superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor from hitting the free-agent market after the 2021 season.

Edwin Encarnacion

When Encarnacion reached free agency three years ago, few people (or maybe no one at all) thought he would choose Cleveland. At the outset of that offseason, MLBTR ranked Encarnacion as the sport’s second-best free agent and predicted he’d land a four-year, $92MM contract. It seemed like a reasonable call at the time in light of the marvelous production Encarnacion put up as a Blue Jay over the previous seasons. In a 3,133-plate appearance span from 2012-16, Encarnacion collected the majors’ second-most home runs (193) and parlayed a .272/.367/.544 line into the league’s fifth-highest wRC+ (146), not to mention 20.7 fWAR.

Despite the wonderful numbers Encarnacion compiled as a Blue Jay, his market didn’t come together as planned after his tenure with the team concluded. Encarnacion had his sights set on a guarantee approaching $100MM, evidenced by reports that he rejected a Toronto offer in the range of $80MM over four years. That turned out to be a blessing for the Blue Jays, who wouldn’t have contended from 2017-19 even with Encarnacion on their roster. And by issuing Encarnacion a qualifying offer and allowing him to depart, the team received a first-round pick (No. 28) in 2017 as compensation. With that selection, the Jays chose right-hander Nate Pearson, now one of the premier prospects in baseball.

While hitting Encarnacion with a QO did benefit Toronto, it didn’t do his market any favors when he became a free agent. Neither Encarnacion’s age (he was on the verge of turning 34) nor defensive limitations that mostly limited interest in him to American League teams helped his cause, either. The Astros, Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox were said to have pursued him to at least some extent, while even the low-budget Athletics tried to swoop in and grab Encarnacion when it became clear he was going to sign for less than expected.

The fact that Cleveland is closer than Oakland to Encarnacion’s native Dominican Republic reportedly played a role in his decision. And the Indians did give him a pact that could have maxed out at $80MM, depending on whether they’d exercise a $20MM club option for 2020. That option was ultimately declined this past winter, but not by the Indians, with whom Encarnacion lasted just two seasons and whose signing cost the club a first-rounder.

Back when Cleveland inked Encarnacion, it was coming off a seven-game World Series loss to the Cubs. The fact that the Indians went as far as they did that year was a boon to their bottom line and reportedly had some impact on their decision to go after Encarnacion. He came in to replace Mike Napoli, whom the Indians let walk after their pennant-winning campaign, and provided an instant upgrade.

Encarnacion batted .258/.377/.504 (130 wRC+) with 38 HRs in 669 PA and 157 games in his first year as an Indian. That output aided the Indians in their second straight AL Central title-winning season, but another deep playoff run wasn’t in the cards as they fell in the first round to the Yankees. While the club went on to a third consecutive division championship in 2018 (and yet another first-round loss, this time to the Astros), it did so without fellow first baseman/DH Carlos Santana, whom it lost to the Phillies in free agency during the previous offseason.

The addition of Encarnacion the year prior helped protect the Indians from Santana’s departure, but the former only managed pedestrian production by his standards that season. Encarnacion did rack up another 32 dingers, though his .246/.336/.474 showing in 579 PA led to his worst wRC+ (115) since before he morphed into a force several years earlier. That proved to be the end of the line on his Indians tenure.

In December 2018, the Indians traded Encarnacion to the Mariners in a three-team deal that also involved the Rays. The move returned Santana to Cleveland, as Philly ended its union with him after only one season when it sent him to Seattle earlier that month, but there was more to the blockbuster. The Indians also had to send third baseman Yandy Diaz and right-hander Cole Sulser to Tampa Bay, which dealt first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers to Cleveland. Diaz has been a real loss for the Indians thus far – he got his first extended major league opportunity last year and showed well, though injured limited him to 79 games. Sulser did nice work with the Rays’ Triple-A team last season, but he was also 29 at the time; they’ve since lost him on waivers to the Orioles. And though Bauers was once a well-regarded prospect, the 24-year-old didn’t hit much in either the majors or minors in 2019.

The best player in the Encarnacion/Santana deal a year ago was the latter, who went to his first All-Star Game and recorded a career-high 4.4 fWAR. The 34-year-old switch-hitter has one more guaranteed season left at just under $21MM. The Indians will have a chance to keep Santana around in 2021 for $17.5MM, but they could instead buy him out for just $500K. So, because we may not even see a 2020 season, it’s possible Santana won’t play for the Indians again.

As for Encarnacion, who had a fine 2019 divided between the Mariners and Yankees, he’s now a member of one of the Indians’ division rivals. Encarnacion revisited the open market this past winter, though he didn’t cash in to nearly the same degree, inking a one-year, $12MM guarantee with the White Sox. That pact also includes a $12MM club option for 2021, so if there is no season, Encarnacion could still stick around in Chicago beyond this year. Based on the length and dollar figure, Encarnacion has a better chance to live up to that accord than the one the Indians gave him. For them, signing Encarnacion to a franchise-record contract didn’t go as hoped.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLB Reportedly Considering Three-State Plan

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The states of Arizona and Florida have already been mentioned as possible sites for the 2020 Major League Baseball season if the coronavirus pandemic doesn’t prevent it from happening. In the event the campaign does get underway, Texas could join Arizona and Florida in hosting teams and games, R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports reports.

Anderson heard from a source that there’s “guarded optimism” this three-state plan could actually take effect. Major league, minor league and spring training facilities would all be potential spots for regular-season games, and there would be multiple contests per day in those places.

Notably, there are five MLB stadiums among the states. Texas features two big league ballparks, the Astros’ Minute Maid Park and the Rangers’ soon-to-open Globe Life Field. Both facilities include retractable roofs, which is important when considering the Texas heat and the need to guard against potential rainouts. MLB would obviously want to get in as many games as possible during what would surely be a truncated season. Fortunately for the league, Arizona (the Diamondbacks’ Chase Field) and Florida (Marlins Park and the Rays’ Tropicana Field) also have either domed or retractable venues.

It’s unclear how many clubs would be stationed in each state, nor is it known how serious the league is about this possibility. Likewise, it’s anyone’s guess whether staging any MLB games in 2020 – even without spectators – will prove to be feasible with COVID-19 still not under control. Nevertheless, with MLB guaranteed to take an enormous financial hit if a season doesn’t take place, it’s brainstorming many different ideas as it hopes to avoid a worst-case scenario.

Korea Baseball Organization Preparing To Begin Regular Season In Early May

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APRIL 20, 10:00pm: The KBO’s Opening Day is set for May 5, Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net tweets (Korean language link via Naver Sports). There will not be fans in attendance.

8:40am: Yoo details the abbreviated preseason at greater length in a second column, outlining the limited travel arrangement in place and the safety/testing precautions that the league will implement. Players will be tested twice prior to games, receive “strong” recommendations to wear masks throughout the stadium when not on the field and be prohibited from spitting (while being “discouraged” from celebratory high fives). Umpires will wear masks and gloves.

Players showing symptoms will immediately be quarantined and tested further. Their stadium would then be subject to a 48-hour closure. A positive test would result in a meeting with text executives throughout the league to determine whether a full stoppage of play is necessary.

April 19: An official announcement is expected Tuesday about the state of the KBO League’s schedule, Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency writes, as Korea’s top baseball league is preparing to begin play in early May.  League officials will meet with the presidents of each KBO team Tuesday, and it is still possible that the KBO could complete its usual 144-game schedule, with liberal use of double-headers and playing games on Monday (which is normally a league-wide off-day).

If a full season is played, the schedule would stretch into November, with postseason games in the latter half of the month played at a neutral venue — the domed Gocheok Sky Dome in Seoul.  The KBO preseason is set to begin on Tuesday, with teams playing four games before beginning regular season action in the first week of May (possibly even on May 1 itself).  All preseason games and regular season games in at least the first portion of the schedule will be played without fans in attendance, and it is possible fans could be allowed to watch games in person later in the year depending on the status of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Of course, all of the KBO League’s plans are dependent upon a continued decrease in coronavirus cases.  South Korea has showed good progress in this direction, as only eight new cases were reported in the country on Sunday, the lowest daily total in two months.  South Korea prime minister Chung Sye-kyun said today that general social distancing policies will remain in place until at least May 5, though “the degree of social distancing will be flexibly changed depending on the scope of transmissions.  The government will evaluate the risks every two weeks, and adjust the level of social distancing if necessary.”  In the meantime, some outdoor facilities, churches, restaurants, schools, and gyms could be allowed to open, assuming strict guidelines are followed for such public locations and gatherings.

Union, League Spar Over Interpretation Of Agreement On Resumption Of Play

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It had seemed that Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association were largely seeing eye to eye on alterations to their preexisting agreements to account for the coronavirus pandemic. The sides struck a bargain in late March to account for numerous significant matters of concern, including part-season salaries.

[RELATED: MLB Player Contracts In A Shortened Or Canceled Season]

The unity may not be long-lived. With little prospect for hosting games with fans in attendance in the near term, league and union are now embroiled in a battle over the meaning of the deal they worked out less than one month ago.

Recent reporting indicated that MLB does not believe the recent agreement resolves the matter of player salaries in the event of TV-only games. Today, union chief Tony Clark announced that he holds precisely the opposite position, as Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.

The league claims the question of salary in a no-attendance season simply hasn’t been decided, pointing to a clause providing that the sides agree to “discuss in good faith the economic feasibility of playing games in the absence of spectators or at appropriate substitute neutral sites.” By this reading, the entire original agreement related only to the resumption of a typical season.

The player side says the agreement provides for a pro rata reduction of salary to match the number of games played, regardless of whether fans are in the stands. Clark tells Blum: “Players recently reached an agreement with Major League Baseball that outlines economic terms for resumption of play, which included significant salary adjustments and a number of other compromises. That negotiation is over.”

It’s not surprising that the sides would’ve found it hard to line up on this particular point. Playing without paying fans was obviously foreseeable, since it made it into the deal. Surely this didn’t sneak up on anyone.

But it’s frankly bizarre to see such a misalignment of expectations regarding an agreement that was only just negotiated. The actual dispute boils down to the question whether new negotiations over “economic feasibility” would involve a full reconsideration of player salaries or, rather, that such feasibility would take place regarding only other matters, with the salary issue already decided. It seems there are oddities in the positions of both sides, based upon what has been aired publicly.

In the framing of deputy commissioner Dan Halem, the original agreement was one in which the sides “agreed that the season would not commence until normal operations — including fans in our home stadiums — were possible.” If not, there’d be a need to negotiate a whole new “framework to resume play without fans.”

It may well be possible — even preferable — to read the agreement as the league suggests. But in that case, why not make it all the more explicit? We haven’t yet seen the full agreement in its finished form, but the elements that have been reported suggest it’s less than crystal clear in its structure. It also seems strange that the sides would’ve focused so much energy solely on the function of a “normal” season when that seemed so unlikely to occur.

At the same time, on the union side, it’s hard to imagine the potential ambiguity wasn’t spotted. If the MLBPA really believed the agreement ensured full salaries (on a game-by-game basis) regardless whether fans were in attendance, why would it have allowed such an “economic feasibility” proviso to inject doubt?

Could it be that both sides agreed to disagree? Perhaps, but if that was actually the mutual understanding, then why overlay contractual uncertainty onto the preexisting, underlying state of affairs? If instead one side or the other has been caught by surprise by the other’s interpretation, that’s equally hard to understand.

Perhaps we’re still just seeing posturing. But there’s no question the league and union still have significant issues to sort through in advance of a potential resumption of play, especially if (as seems exceedingly likely) it’ll occur without spectators.

This was always going to be complicated. Holding contests without fans will require tricky logistics, added costs and risks, and atypical economic calculations. And there’s already an important background consideration here. Remember that talk of the uniform player contract, which provides the commissioner power to “suspend” contracts “during any national emergency during which Major League Baseball is not played”? That’s clear enough in some instances. But it’s less obvious precisely how the contracts would be re-started. And what happens if the emergency declaration is formally lifted, but baseball doesn’t resume play … or does so on a modified basis? It’s hard to read this clause as providing that major economic interferences would mandate adjustments of already guaranteed salaries, particularly if there’s no formal nationwide emergency declaration.

There was already ample potential for interpretive disputes revolving around that language, the entirety of the Basic Agreement, and the broader bargaining relationship in these unusual circumstances. A mutually satisfactory resolution never seemed straightforward. And now, the presence of an intervening, already-disputed agreement may only add to the potential for friction.

The 10-Year Anniversary Of A Notable Cardinals Signing

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We’ve reached the 10-year anniversary of a Cardinals move that has paid significant dividends for the franchise. It was on this date in 2010 that the Cardinals signed right-hander Carlos Martinez out of the Dominican Republic for a $1.5MM bonus. The deal came a year after a $150K agreement Martinez had with the Red Sox fell through because of questions over his name and birthday, as Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com detailed back in 2013.

Martinez’s issues were ultimately sorted out after the Boston deal collapsed, and St. Louis has been the beneficiary. After a torrid run through the minors, Martinez ended up debuting in the majors in 2013 as a hyped prospect, even making five appearances in relief against Boston in St. Louis’ World Series loss to the Red Sox. He has since established himself as a key part of the Cardinals’ pitching staff.

Martinez truly broke out as a starter in 2015, the first season of a three-year, 580-inning stretch in which he logged a 3.24 ERA/3.59 FIP with 8.92 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 and a 54 percent groundball rate. The Cardinals made a sizable commitment to Martinez after the second of those seasons, signing him to an extension worth a guaranteed $51MM over five years in February 2017. Martinez is down to his last two guaranteed seasons on that pact, though the Cardinals will be able to control him for 2022 and ’23 via club options; that is, if they’re willing to pay him $17MM in the first year and/or $18MM in the second (otherwise, they could buy him out in either season for $500K).

Martinez seemed to be on pace to have those options picked up just a couple years ago, but it’s less clear what his future holds at this point. Now 28 years old, Martinez spent the majority of the previous two seasons as a reliever – an effective one at that – owing in part to injuries. Dating back to 2018, he has tossed 167 innings of 3.13 ERA/3.34 FIP ball with 9.16 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a typically above-average grounder percentage of 51.1.

All 48 of the hard-throwing Martinez’s appearances last year came out of the Cardinals’ bullpen as he recovered from shoulder issues, and he even converted 24 of 27 save opportunities while filling in for the injured Jordan Hicks as their closer. However, before the coronavirus pandemic reared its ugly head and caused baseball to shut down, the 28-year-old looked as if he was on track to return to his prior role in the St. Louis rotation in 2020.

No matter which job Martinez takes on this season (if there is one), it’s fair to say his production as both a starter and a reliever has been a boon to the Cardinals. Ten years ago today, they landed a two-time All-Star for a relative pittance.

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