Archives for 2021

Brewers To Sign Pedro Severino

By Mark Polishuk | November 21, 2021 at 4:05pm CDT

The Brewers have signed catcher Pedro Severino to a one-year, $1.9MM deal, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). Another $400K in incentives are available to the 28-year-old backstop, who is represented by Republik Sports. The contract will become official when Severino passes a physical.

After Manny Pina signed with the Braves earlier this week, Severino will now step directly into Pina’s role as the right-handed hitting complement to the lefty-swinging Omar Narvaez behind the plate in Milwaukee. Narvaez struggles badly against left-handed pitching and he struggled in general in the second half of the 2021 season, so there should be a fair amount of playing time available to Severino with his new club.

Severino, for his part, has a very solid .262/.324/.441 career slash line against left-handed pitching, with particularly good numbers in both 2019 (.812 OPS in 155 PA) and 2021 (.818 OPS in 161 PA). Severino didn’t do much against righties, however, and between his projected $3.1MM arbitration salary and Adley Rutschman looming as the Orioles’ catcher of the future, Baltimore chose to outright Severino off its 40-man roster earlier this month. Severino then opted to become a free agent for the first time in his career.

Severino has a third and final year of arbitration eligibility next winter, so this extra year of control gives the Brewers some flexibility in future catching decisions since Narvaez is himself a free agent after the 2022 campaign. Prospect Mario Feliciano made his MLB debut last year, so if the Brew Crew is optimistic about his future, Milwaukee could potentially roll with a Feliciano/Severino combination in 2023 if the club decided to let Narvaez walk.

Defensively, Severino has been a below-average framer and he has -19 Defensive Runs Saved over his career. As noted by Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, however, there is some cause for optimism that the Brewers can get Severino turned around in the same way that Narvaez went from being a subpar defender to a very strong pitch-framer in his two seasons with the Brew Crew.

Pirates To Sign Jose Quintana

By Mark Polishuk | November 21, 2021 at 3:54pm CDT

The Pirates have agreed to a deal with left-hander Jose Quintana, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that Quintana’s contract is a one-year, Major League pact, and Jason Mackey of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Quintana will earn around $2MM (both links to Twitter). The signing will become official once Quintana passes a physical. Quintana is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

Quintana was one of the more durable and generally solid starters in baseball from 2012-19, when the southpaw pitched for the White Sox and Cubs. However, thumb injuries and lat inflammation limited Quintana to only 10 innings for the Cubs in 2020, and he also spent about three weeks on the injured list this past season due to shoulder inflammation. That IL stint was only one of the issues Quintana faced in 2021, after he signed a one-year, $8MM deal with the Angels last winter.

The left-hander had only a 6.75 ERA over 53 1/3 innings in Anaheim, and then a 4.66 ERA over 9 2/3 innings with the Giants after being claimed off waivers at the end of August. It all worked out to a 6.43 ERA as a whole over 63 frames, though Quintana’s SIERA (3.94) and xFIP (3.75) were more than respectable. A 3.78 BABIP may be the standout statistic in that regard, as Quintana received very little help from the Angels’ poor defense.

Batted-ball luck wasn’t the only culprit to blame for Quintana’s numbers, however. He allowed a ton of hard contact and his 11.8% walk rate was easily the highest of his career. On the flip side, Quintana’s 28.6% strikeout rate was also the highest of his career, and his whiff rate was well above the league average. Quintana was also quite a bit more effective as a reliever than as a starter last year, as the Angels moved him to the bullpen in the wake of his rotation struggles. This could hint at a new direction for Quintana as he enters his age-33 season, or at least a fallback option for the Pirates if Quintana doesn’t produce as a starter.

Given Pittsburgh’s need for starting pitching, it seems likely that the Bucs will use Quintana in their rotation to begin the year and hope that he can regain some of his pre-2020 form as a reliable innings-eater. The Pirates don’t have much big league experience in their projected starting five, and the team surely wants to avoid a repeat of 2021, when a plethora of injuries and trades resulted in the Bucs having to dig deep into their depth chart to cover starts. Should Quintana pitch well, Pittsburgh could also dangle him as a trade chip at the deadline.

Organizational Notes: Red Sox, Groopman, Orioles, Murray

By Darragh McDonald | November 21, 2021 at 2:23pm CDT

Mike Groopman is joining the Red Sox organization as an assistant general manager, per Chad Jennings and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Groopman was previously with the Brewers as VP of International Scouting and Player Personnel.

After short stints with the Reds and Mets, Groopman was hired by the Royals in 2008 and ended up staying for a decade, before moving to Milwaukee in 2017. When he joined Kansas City, the club was in the middle of a years-long tank job that ultimately proved fruitful, as they had four consecutive seasons of .500 or above from 2013 to 2016, which included back-to-back trips to the World Series, losing to the Giants in 2014 but then defeating the Mets in 2015. Since Groopman came to the Brewers, they have also had a nice run of success, having just made the postseason for a fourth straight year.

Of course, front offices are comprised of dozens of employees and no individual can take full responsibility for a club’s successes or failures. Still, the fact that Groopman has been given this new job and new title shows that his work is well regarded in the industry.

Moving across the AL East, Collin Murray will be joining the Orioles as a development coach, he himself announced on Twitter. Over the past few years, Murray has worked with some colleges, in addition to jobs with the Marlins, Angels and Tigers.

Development is going to be extremely important for the Orioles over the next few years. They are currently bottom feeders in a stacked AL East, with the other four teams each logging at least 91 wins in 2021, compared to the 52 notched by the Orioles. However, their farm system is held in high esteem by prospect evaluators, with FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline ranking theirs as the best in the league, and Baseball America slotting them second behind the Mariners. Helping those talented youngsters blossom into productive major leaguers will be extremely important for them to gain ground on their rivals and get back into contention.

Free Agent Faceoff: Kris Bryant Vs. Kyle Seager Vs. Eduardo Escobar

By Darragh McDonald | November 21, 2021 at 11:51am CDT

If you scan MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents looking for a third baseman, you’ll quickly see Kris Bryant in the #4 slot, predicted to get a contract of $160MM over six years, an average annual value of $26.67MM. Then there’s a big drop-off to Kyle Seager at #31 and Eduardo Escobar at #35. Each is projected to get a two-year deal, with Seager getting a total of $24MM and Escobar $20MM.

Age is certainly a justified reason for Bryant to get a longer contract, as he’s about to turn 30 in January, whereas Seager just turned 34 and Escobar will turn 33 in January, his birthday being the day after Bryant’s, making him almost exactly three years older. However, looking at their recent track records, they may not be as far apart as one might think.

Bryant was a high profile prospect who burst onto the scene in 2015. In his first three seasons, he lived up to all of the hype, hitting .288/.388/.527 for a wRC+ of 144. Combined with solid defense, he was worth 20.7 fWAR over those three seasons, which included winning NL MVP in 2016 and a World Series ring to boot. He has slowed down since that time, however, primarily on the defensive side of things. His slash line from 2018 to 2021 is still great, coming in at .268/.363/.479, wRC+ of 124. But due to diminished defensive numbers, that adds up to 11.1 fWAR over those four seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average gave Bryant 5 and 4 at third base in 2016 and 2017, respectively. But since then, he’s been at 0 or below, including -4 at third base in 2021 and -10 overall.

Escobar’s trajectory has been almost the opposite, as he had a breakout year in 2018 and has had his strongest campaigns in recent years. Like Bryant, he had three solid seasons in the past four years, with the shortened 2020 season being his weakest. His overall line from 2018 to 2021 is .259/.318/.475, wRC+ of 105. His defense has been graded around league average in that time, allowing him to accumulate 9.5 fWAR in that span, just 1.6 shy of Bryant. In 2021, Bryant’s wRC+ of 123 was ahead of Escobar’s 107, but the defensive differences meant that his 3.6 fWAR on the campaign was just barely ahead of Escobar’s 3.0. Escobar’s nightmare season in 2020 resulted in -0.5 fWAR, but he was worth three wins or more in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021.

As for Seager, his best run of play was from 2012 to 2017. He has certainly slipped a bit since then but still managed to be a solid contributor thanks to his power and defense. Over the 2018-2021 timeframe, he hit .224/.298/.423, for a wRC+ of 99 and 8.5 fWAR, just a shade behind Escobar. Despite some ups and downs on offense, his glovework has been fairly steady. In the estimation of FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.5 fWAR for ten straight seasons now, including the shortened 2020 campaign. In the six seasons of data for OAA, Seager has been worth at least three OAA in five of those seasons, with 2018 being the only outlier.

There’s no denying that Bryant deserves to be the top option out of these three. He’s the best hitter and offers upside that the others can’t match. The potential implementation of the NL DH would also make it easier for him to play the field less and perhaps maximize the value of his bat. His ability to play the outfield opens his market, although his defense hasn’t been graded well out on the grass. For teams looking for someone to play third base regularly, his declining defensive numbers would surely give them pause, especially when the asking price will probably be near $30MM per season. Escobar and Seager should cost less than half what Bryant will, both in terms of years and average annual value. There would be some logic to a team taking one of the cheaper options and using the cost savings to upgrade another area of their squad.

If you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, would you rather blow your budget and commit long-term to Bryant, and then get some cheap fliers to fill out the rest of your team? Or would you rather spread your money around more evenly, getting a cheap option like Escobar or Seager and then having more money for other additions? Have your say in the poll below.

(Poll link for app users)

Seiya Suzuki To Be Posted Tomorrow Morning

By Darragh McDonald | November 21, 2021 at 9:41am CDT

MLB has told teams that outfielder Seiya Suzuki will be posted tomorrow morning, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. That will open a 30-day window for teams to negotiate with him, with the deadline being 4:00 pm CT on December 22. If he doesn’t sign a contract by then, he will return to the Hiroshima Carp, his team in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

It was reported weeks ago that Suzuki was going to be posted, but the official timing of the posting is significant. The Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and MLBPA is set to expire at 11:59 pm ET on December 1. Due to the fact that it seems unlikely a deal will come together by then, the expectation around the industry has been that December 2 will see the implementation of a lockout and transaction freeze that would last until a new agreement is reached. Commissioner Rob Manfred discussed this scenario recently and seemed to point to its likelihood.

There’s a ten-day span from Suzuki’s posting tomorrow until that potential lockout day. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that a transaction freeze would indeed apply to Suzuki as well, meaning no team could sign him while the freeze is in place. It had been previously reported that MLB and NPB were discussing an agreement wherein Suzuki’s 30-day clock would be paused during the freeze. That agreement seems to have been reached, as Sherman also reports that Suzuki’s 30-day clock will not move during a lockout. That means Suzuki is going to have to decide between hastily working out a deal in just over a week or dealing with the uncertainty of waiting out this winter’s labor strife and then having around 20 days of negotiating time on the other side of that.

Suzuki came in 20th on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents and was predicted to get a contract of $55MM over five years. The 27-year-old seems capable of stepping right into the middle of the lineup for an MLB team, along with providing a strong arm and competent right field defense. Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For example, if Suzuki were signed for $55MM as MLBTR predicted, the signing team would have to pay the Carp $10.125MM, bringing the total bill to $65.125MM. Since the reports that he was going to be posted, Suzuki has already been connected in rumors to the Red Sox, Rangers, Giants and Mariners.

Quick Hits: Carpenter, Pirates, Tsutsugo, Braves

By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2021 at 10:34pm CDT

Matt Carpenter has heard from a few teams about a potential contract, but he is “super prepared for an extremely slow free-agency pace here,” the former Cardinals All-Star told The Athletic’s Katie Woo. “I totally understand that I’m not necessarily a highly sought-after free agent and that there are a lot of unknowns going forward.” Even without the uncertainty of labor talks and a potential transactions freeze looming this offseason, Carpenter likely would have faced a thin market anyway considering his lack of production over the last three seasons.

However, Carpenter sees possible changes to the sport as helpful to his chances of landing a new job. Should the DH come to the National League, for instance, or “the potential of banning and limiting shifts” becomes a reality, Carpenter might draw more interest. Within a week of his 36th birthday, Carpenter reiterated that he wants to continue his career into a 12th big league season, but seemed at peace with whatever the offseason will bring. “If I play, no matter where, I’ll be perfectly happy with that,” Carpenter said. “And if I don’t, and if I’m staying home and going to be a dad and I finished my career with one and only one organization, I’ll be perfectly happy with that as well.”

AL West Notes: Angels, Thor, Seager, Semien, Rangers, Olson

By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2021 at 9:02pm CDT

The Angels signed Noah Syndergaard earlier this week, a move that came about due to a very ardent pursuit by the front office. Speaking with The Los Angeles Times’ Jack Harris, The Associated Press, and other reporters, Syndergaard said the Angels were the very first team to get in touch with him after the free agent period opened, and his own interest in Anaheim grew after a three-hour dinner with Angels GM Perry Minasian. The executive presented detailed plans on several topics, including how the team would manage the right-hander’s innings in 2022, and some mechanical adjustments the Angels were looking to make based on their analysis of Syndergaard’s tape. “It was a breath of fresh air to hear that, to know his baseball knowledge,” Syndergaard said. “He was able to break down some of the flaws I had over the past couple years….I trust that what they saw, they’re going to be able to fix, and I’ll get back to my old self.”

Plenty of preparation went into the meeting on Minasian’s end, as he said “As far as man hours, the amount of work we’ve done, I don’t know if I’ve ever done more on an individual player.” The Angels had to be sure that Syndergaard was fully recovered after missing essentially two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery rehab, and their offer also matched Syndergaard’s desire to re-enter the market next winter with what he hopes will be a full and healthy season under his belt. Syndergaard said that while he initially expected to remain with the Mets, “I didn’t really hear from them all that much in the last two months from the end of the season until now.” This lack of communication may have been the result of the Mets’ long search for a new front office boss, and Syndergaard indicated that the ever-ongoing drama surrounding the team influenced his decision to sign elsewhere. “This is an important year for me. This is kind of a make-or-break time for me. I didn’t want to gamble on that kind of uncertainty that’s been going on with them,” the righty said.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2021 at 7:53pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

Latest On Red Sox Pitching Targets

By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2021 at 4:22pm CDT

The Red Sox are known to be looking for rotation help this winter, and the club has “had varying degrees of contact with virtually all of the top starters on the market,” The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes. This includes reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, who hadn’t previously been linked to the Sox on the rumor mill, though it naturally stands to reason that the Red Sox would have interest in such a prominent arm.

Given the wide net the Sox are casting in their pitching search, it isn’t known if Ray is necessarily at the top of Boston’s list of potential targets. Signing Ray would come at a double cost — one of the biggest contracts given to any free agent this offseason, as well as a penalty of $500K reduction from Boston’s international draft pool and a second-round draft pick, since Ray rejected the Blue Jays’ qualifying offer.

The Red Sox might be willing to accept those penalties to sign a top-tier starter like Ray, however, as Speier notes that the team also had interest in another QO free agent in Justin Verlander. “Talks never advanced” too far between the two sides before Verlander agreed to return to Houston on a two-year, $50MM pact, but if the Red Sox were open to surrendering a pick for a shorter-term addition like Verlander, it would stand to reason that they’d also be open to giving up a pick to add Ray on a longer-term commitment. It should be noted that the Sox have some extra draft capital to work with next summer, as since Eduardo Rodriguez rejected Boston’s qualifying offer and then agreed to a deal with the Tigers, the Red Sox will receive an extra selection between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round.

As for other now-signed free agent hurlers, Speier writes that the Red Sox were one of the teams bidding on Andrew Heaney, and the left-hander was given a one-year offer “competitive with the $8.5MM he signed for with the Dodgers.” Speier also notes that the Red Sox didn’t have interest in Noah Syndergaard, which runs contrary to a report from The New York Post’s Joel Sherman earlier this week that suggested Boston made an “aggressive” offer to Syndergaard before the righty signed with the Angels.

Steven Matz is a pitcher known to be of interest to the Red Sox, and it is possible Matz might decide on his next team relatively quickly. According to Speier, Matz would prefer to have an agreement in place prior to the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1, and the signing freeze that would come with a potential lockout on December 2. Matz is hoping to get a deal done by Thanksgiving, and given the number of teams already known to have checked in on the southpaw, it certainly seems plausible that a deal could be reached this week. Besides the Red Sox, Matz has been linked to the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Angels, plus the Blue Jays have continued to explore re-signing Matz for a longer term in Toronto.

Yankees Reportedly Offered Verlander One-Year, $25MM Deal

By TC Zencka | November 20, 2021 at 1:46pm CDT

Before he signed a two-year, $50MM deal to return to the Astros, the Yankees made a decent push to sign veteran righty Justin Verlander. The Yankees offered Verlander $25MM for 2022, but they did not offer a second season, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). Verlander ultimately got $25MM a year for two years with an opt-out from the Astros.

Though Verlander has made just one start in the past two seasons, the 8-time All-Star won the American League Cy Young award the last time he was healthy for a full season, leading the Astros to an American League pennant. $25MM is no paltry sum, but as a one-year deal, signing Verlander would have been a relatively low-risk move for New York.

Without Verlander, the Yankees are still on the lookout for more rotation help. As of now, their rotation consists of Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, and a host of less certain options. Luis Severino should be a solid third arm if he’s able to stay healthy, and Nestor Cortes Jr. put together a pretty convincing run at the end of the 2021 season. Domingo German and Jameson Taillon are veterans with question marks who are capable of adding value from the rotation – though you might not be totally comfortable banking on a full season from either.

Meanwhile, the Yanks will again hope that their younger arms are able to establish themselves as contributors. Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Medina, and Michael King are all on the 40-man roster and could compete for bulk innings roles. Garcia is the most popular name in that bunch after a heartening six starts in 2020, he took a step back last year, pitching to a 6.48 ERA/4.85 FIP across 90 2/3 innings in Triple-A while making just two starts in the Majors.

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