Archives for 2021

Kyle Schwarber Open To Red Sox Reunion

By Darragh McDonald | October 24, 2021 at 12:25pm CDT

The Kyle Schwarber journey has been a rollercoaster over the past couple of years. It was fairly steady from 2017 to 2019, as he was in a groove as the Cubs’ regular left fielder, playing at least 129 games and hitting at least 26 home runs each year. His wRC+ was between 103 and 119 in each of those three campaigns. 2020, however, went in a completely different direction. Over 59 games in the shortened season, Schwarber’s slash line was a meager .188/.308/.393, producing a wRC+ of just 89. There was reason to think it was a fluke, however, as his BABIP on the season was .219, well below his previous campaigns. Nonetheless, the Cubs decided to move on from Schwarber by declining to tender him a contract for his final year of arbitration control, sending the lefty away from the organization that selected him fourth overall in the 2014 draft.

He then went on to have arguably the best season of his career in 2021, between Washington and Boston. He slashed .266/.374/.554, en route to a wRC+ of 145, easily a personal best. His 3.1 fWAR was just slightly below the 3.2 he produced in 2018, though he played 24 more games that season compared to 2021. Based on that excellent campaign, Schwarber is sure to decline his half of the $11MM mutual option for 2022 that was part of his deal with the Nationals, taking the $3MM buyout instead and heading to the open market in search of a big payday.

But could the Red Sox sign him and bring him back? Schwarber tells Alex Speier of The Boston Globe that he’s open to it. “It’d be pretty stupid not to think about [returning],” said Schwarber. “My team here has been unbelievable. … If they feel like they would like to talk about [a new deal], I’d be all ears. I just think it would be stupid to ‘X’ someone off for no reason. Especially for a place like this, I’d be all ears.”

As Schwarber astutely points out, it would be silly for a free agent to eliminate any potential bidders for their services, especially publicly. So, it’s not terribly surprising for him to say he’s interested in returning. However, it would make for a potentially awkward fit. Schwarber was moved from his usual corner outfield position to first base with Boston, due to the Red Sox already having Enrique Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, Hunter Renfroe and J.D. Martinez on hand as outfield options. The switch wasn’t without hiccups, as Schwarber made a few obvious flubs in his time at first, and defensive metrics seemed aligned in their disapproval of his initial attempts at the position.

Although there is the designated hitter slot to think of, Speier’s piece says that Martinez is unlikely to opt out of the final year of his contract, meaning that bringing Schwarber back would give the club two bat-first players with defensive limitations. With Hernandez, Verdugo and Renfroe also coming back for 2022, it will still be difficult to make all the puzzle pieces fit. Schwarber will be one of the premier corner outfield options in this winter’s free agent market, meaning he should get plenty of interest without having to continue the first base experiment.

The Red Sox, for their part, could also turn to more-seasoned options at first, with Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo and Brandon Belt being the top names available. They could also let Bobby Dalbec have the position for now, as he’s been productive in his major league time so far. There’s also Triston Casas to think about. He’s considered a top-20 prospect in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. He finished 2021 in Triple-A and could soon force his way onto the big league roster. But a reunion between Schwarber and the Red Sox can’t be ruled out, as the slugger himself adds, “This is definitely a clubhouse that I could see myself wanting to stay in. These guys are amazing,” he said. “This is a World Series clubhouse, and I would love to hopefully see if that opportunity comes back.”

The Red Sox could have room for Schwarber from a financial standpoint as their current payroll for 2022 sits just under $160MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Their opening day payroll in 2021 was just north of $180MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, the Red Sox could use their resources to address things besides first base, such as a pitching staff that is seeing Eduardo Rodriguez, Adam Ottavino and Hansel Robles head into free agency.

Farhan Zaidi Discusses Giants’ Upcoming Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | October 24, 2021 at 9:41am CDT

Giants’ president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recently appeared on The TK Show, the podcast of The Athletic’s Tim Kawakami, and discussed a wide variety of topics pertaining to the past and the future of the club.

Broadly speaking, there’s a wide variety of paths for the Giants to take this winter. They have a lot of contracts coming off the books when free agency begins, which means they will have money to spend but also holes to fill. They could use that money to assemble a team that’s very similar to the 107-win 2021 squad, go with a completely different look, or somewhere in between. Regardless of how it plays out, Zaidi believes their success this season should help make them an attractive destination for potential signees. “We’re just going to keep trying to get better and better and better and at some point you reach the tipping point where you look up and you’re at the top of the standings, and that situation can perpetuate itself by reputation, a lot of free agents want to play for you, and you can draft off of that success if you just kind of keep grinding and trying to make the team better.”

It certainly stands to reason that free agents would be intrigued, especially given that the Giants have seemingly found a way to maximize the talents of veterans they’ve brought on in recent years, such as Darin Ruf, Anthony DeSclafani, Jake McGee and Alex Wood, who are all over 30 years old and did some of the best work of their careers in 2021. And there’s also Giants’ mainstays like Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey, who are all 33 or older and had excellent seasons.

Zaidi elaborated on that point by giving some insight into how players approach free agency and how it’s evolved in recent years. He says that money and geography used to be the primary factors, but now, “I think guys are more aware of going somewhere they feel like there’s an infrastructure and a support system that can help them thrive from a performance standpoint. You get a lot more questions from free agents on what facilities do you have, can I speak to your pitching coach or hitting coach? And that’s a way bigger part of the recruiting process. We’ve been really focused on that pitch over the last couple of years.”

Zaidi had already discussed the rotation situation last week, which is surely going to be a big part of the Giants’ offseason as Wood, DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto are all heading into free agency. Kawakami asked him about taking a similar approach to what they’ve done previously, giving short-term deals to talented pitchers with question marks on their records. “You look at the list of free agents and there are some names on that list who have had a lot of success in the past and maybe dealt with injuries this year or underperformed for whatever reason,” Zaidi said. “I think when you’ve got to fill out four spots in your rotation, you’re certainly going to look at that segment of the market.” The team has a $22MM club option on Cueto, but the fact that Zaidi admits they will be looking to fill four rotation spots seems to leave no doubt that they will opt for the $5MM buyout instead.

But those short-term deals aren’t the only thing on the table. “I would be surprised if we didn’t wind up doing at least one multi-year deal for a starting pitcher,” Zaidi added. “Certainly all of our guys who are free agents are going to be looking for multi-year deals based on the seasons they had. We have interest in bringing all of those guys back.”

In terms of payroll, the club should have lots of flexibility for 2022 and beyond. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club’s opening day payroll was just under $150MM this year, the lowest since 2014, when prorating the 2020 number. According to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, they only have about $65MM allocated for 2022, when factoring in arbitration estimates. Assuming the club picks up its options on Buster Posey, Wilmer Flores and Jose Alvarez, that number would jump up to the $90MM range. Even if payroll stays steady for 2022, that seemingly gives Zaidi and his team $60MM to throw around this offseason. For 2023, there’s only $33MM on the books so far, with Crawford and Tommy La Stella the only guaranteed contracts. With that level of wiggle room, the club could surely find any number of ways to build a rotation around breakout star Logan Webb, for both the short and long term.

On the position player side of things, Zaidi seems to be less worried about their situation in that department. Kawakami quotes Zaidi from a press conference last week as saying, “We’re deep on the position-player side. We have a number of guys who are platoon guys, every-day guys, we have a lot of at-bats that are accounted for. And we’ve got guys like Thairo Estrada (and) Steven Duggar that we’d like to see get better opportunities. You’ve got a layer of prospects that are even closer to being big-league ready, guys like (Heliot) Ramos and Joey Bart. So we at least have some options on the position-player side. Where all those guys on the position-player side, not just Kris but Brandon Belt, Donovan Solano, these guys fit our team, we’d like to have them back, but we have some options on that side.”

Solano has had a nice run with the Giants but is about to turn 34, whereas Estrada is about to turn 26 and had a similarly-productive season, making it fairly reasonable to see that bringing Solano back isn’t the highest priority. Belt had a tremendous season at the plate but also comes with injury concerns. The club largely turned to a productive Wilmer Flores/Darin Ruf platoon when Belt was out, which they could do again in 2022. (Ruf can be retained via arbitration, Flores by a $3.5MM club option.) Bryant is a tremendous hitter but will be command a huge financial commitment this winter and is an imperfect fit on the Giants’ roster. Third baseman Evan Longoria is still under contract for one more year, at just under $20MM, meaning Bryant would likely be pushed into more outfield time, where his defensive numbers aren’t as good. The club also has a bevy of outfield options already in the fold, such as Duggar, LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson and Austin Slater. Prospect Heliot Ramos, whom Zaidi mentioned, finished his season at Triple-A and will need to be added to the 40-man roster next month in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, meaning he should be in the mix for an opportunity soon. Zaidi’s apparent lack of urgency around the position players seems to hold up to scrutiny. The option of a universal DH for 2022 would open things up somewhat, but that’s not guaranteed to happen.

All in all, it should be a fascinating offseason for the club. The rival Dodgers are in a similar situation, with lots of players reaching free agency, such as Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor and Kenley Jansen. Both clubs will surely be frequently connected to free agents in rumors this offseason, meaning 2021’s fierce competition for the NL West division crown figures to continue right through the winter.

Jon Gray Has Reportedly Rejected Extension Offer From Rockies

By Anthony Franco | October 23, 2021 at 10:26pm CDT

Jon Gray rejected an extension offer the Rockies made him before the end of the regular season, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Gray continues to have interest in sticking with Colorado long-term, Saunders adds, although the expectation is now that he’ll at least test the open market.

There’s been reported mutual interest between the Rox and Gray in a long-term deal for months, but the sides have yet to line up on acceptable terms. Saunders suggests the right-hander could target a three or four-year deal with an average annual value in the $9-10MM range on the open market. Whether that kind of deal would be attainable could depend upon whether the Rockies tag Gray with a qualifying offer. Doing so would entitle the Rockies to draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere, although he’d be a strong candidate to accept an $18.4MM offer to return in 2022.

Perhaps that’d be a mutually agreeable outcome, since Colorado clearly has interest in retaining Gray. Despite already being out of postseason contention by late July, the Rockies seemingly made Gray unavailable relatively early on trade deadline day. That course of action makes little sense unless the team wants to keep him around, and subsequent reports made clear that’s the case.

Gray bounced back from an injury-plagued 2020 to post a solid season this year. Over 149 innings, the 29-year-old worked to a 4.59 ERA with average or better strikeout (24.4%), walk (9%) and ground-ball (48.4%) rates. He thrived at Coors Field, tossing 78 1/3 frames of 4.02 ERA ball while holding opponents to a .205/.291/.365 line in home starts. With how difficult it has proven for the Rockies to find pitchers capable of succeeding in the game’s most hitter-friendly environment, it’s easy to see why general manager Bill Schmidt and his staff have continually expressed interest in keeping Gray around.

Saunders adds some additional context on Colorado’s offseason priorities, writing that the club is expected to target “at least two impactful players.” What constitutes an impact addition is open to interpretation, but Saunders suggests the club will look for a power-hitting bat this winter, preferably an outfielder. He floats Nick Castellanos (almost certain to opt out of his contract with the Reds), Michael Conforto and utilityman Chris Taylor as possible targets.

That’s a varied collection of potential players of interest. Castellanos looks like a candidate for a nine-figure deal. Taylor has a strong case for a four-year contract in the $65+MM range. Conforto could land three or four years himself, but it’s also possible he looks for a one-year bounceback deal after a mediocre 2021 campaign. Signing any of that group would probably cost the Rockies a draft choice, as they’re all likely qualifying offer recipients.

As for other areas of need for the Rockies, Saunders floats the bullpen and middle infield. Shortstop Trevor Story is expected to reject a QO and sign elsewhere, leaving a middle infield vacancy. Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers has seemingly locked down one spot after hitting .284/.328/.470 across 415 plate appearances this past season. Rodgers is capable of manning either of shortstop or second base, leaving some flexibility for Schmidt and company in addressing the dirt.

Plugging all those position player gaps and/or retaining Gray would certainly make for a costly winter. Earlier this month, Colorado president Greg Feasel said the club was planning to increase payroll over the course of the next two offseasons — eventually pushing from 2021’s $118MM figure closer to their franchise-record $145MM mark from 2019. Colorado should indeed have spending room to work with, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates they have around $79MM in 2022 commitments at the moment — including projected arbitration salaries.

That financial flexibility should give the front office real room for upgrades, but they’ll have a tall task in constructing a contender. The Rockies have finished in fourth place in the NL West in each of the past three seasons, and the impending departure of Story only makes a return to contention in that loaded division harder. Despite those challenges, Saunders’ report reinforces that the Rockies aren’t planning to take a step back this winter. They’re at least plotting a hopeful win-now course of action that could see them remain in the market for some of the offseason’s top free agent hitters.

Trade Candidate: Paul DeJong

By Anthony Franco | October 23, 2021 at 8:00pm CDT

One of the biggest decisions for the Cardinals this winter is how to handle the shortstop position. That hasn’t been the case in a while. Paul DeJong had a great rookie season in 2017, and he’s been the Cards’ Opening Day shortstop for each of the four seasons since.

Going into 2022, it no longer seems to be DeJong’s job. That rookie season was propped up by a .349 batting average on balls in play that DeJong never seemed likely to sustain, but he was a solid hitter over the next couple years. Coupled with high-end defensive metrics, he was still a highly valuable player. DeJong’s bat has taken another step down over the last two years, though, and that seemingly puts his future with the organization in question.

Since the start of 2020, DeJong has tallied 576 plate appearances, nearly the equivalent of a typical season. He’s hit just .213/.295/.378, a mark that makes him fourteen percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong still brings some power upside, popping 22 home runs with a .165 ISO (slugging minus batting average) that’s right around average. He has struck out in an elevated 26.6% of his trips to the plate, though. Paired with a very low .254 BABIP, that has led DeJong to post one of the lower batting averages and on-base marks among regular players.

DeJong is still generally effective at barreling balls up, but he’s also had far too many wasted plate appearances. He’s an extreme fly ball hitter, which can be a bit of a double-edged sword. Hitting the ball in the air gives a player plenty of opportunities to do damage, but weakly hit fly balls aren’t especially useful. DeJong has had his share of softly hit balls in the air, with a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity on air balls that ranks in the 42nd percentile leaguewide (minimum 1000 pitches seen). That middle-of-the-road batted ball quality has come as DeJong’s contact rate has dropped a few percentage points over the past two seasons, falling from roughly league average to a bit below.

While DeJong hasn’t been an especially productive hitter in recent seasons, he hasn’t been without value. Defensive metrics have still pegged him as a solid or better defender. Over the past two seasons, DeJong has rated as six runs above average at shortstop by DRS, while Statcast has him at two plays above average. Even average play at shortstop is valuable, and DeJong’s probably at least a tick above par defensively.

Because of that defensive acumen, DeJong has been valued at around two wins above replacement since the start of 2020 by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That’s roughly league average for the amount he has played. So even with his bat going backwards, DeJong’s still a capable player who is just two years removed from an All-Star berth. He’d be an upgrade over some teams’ current shortstop situations.

Speculatively speaking, the Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Angels, Rangers, A’s, Astros, Tigers and Twins are among the teams who might be in the shortstop market this winter. With a star-studded crop of free agent shortstops, DeJong won’t be priority number one for any of those clubs. They can’t all land high-end free agent options, though, and some could view DeJong as a reasonable fallback option.

In March 2018, DeJong and the Cardinals agreed on a contract extension, the guaranteed portion of which runs through 2023. He’ll make $6MM next season and $9MM the following year, and he’s guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on a 2024 club option valued at $12.5MM. The contract also contains another club option covering 2025. Given DeJong’s offensive struggles the past couple seasons, that deal no longer looks like a massive bargain. But it’s certainly not an outlandish detriment to a team’s finances either, and the two options give a potential acquiring team some upside if DeJong manages to turn things around at the dish.

That all leads to an interesting offseason decision for the St. Louis front office. DeJong’s 2022 salary isn’t outlandish, but they might want to look into the top shortstops available themselves. Alternatively, they could trade DeJong and rely on the player who became the de facto shortstop down the stretch this past season: Edmundo Sosa.

Sosa has long been viewed by public prospect evaluators as a future glove-first utilityman. He outperformed those expectations as a rookie, though, hitting .271/.346/.389 with six homers in 326 plate appearances. Sosa didn’t walk or hit for much power, but his aggressive approach helped keep his strikeouts low as well.

Turning shortstop over to Sosa based on half a season’s worth of work would be a risk, but he did enough down the stretch to seemingly surpass DeJong on the organizational depth chart. It’d be defensible to give Sosa a chance to seize the job, particularly given this regime’s solid track record in developing position players who overperform their general prospect expectations.

How to handle the shortstop position going into 2022 is a key question for president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office. That’s unfamiliar territory in St. Louis, but DeJong’s recent drop-off at the dish makes it possible he could wind up on the move in the coming months.

Free Agent Faceoff: Kevin Gausman Vs. Robbie Ray

By Anthony Franco | October 23, 2021 at 5:30pm CDT

There are a few options for teams playing at the top of the starting pitching market to choose from this winter. Max Scherzer should land the highest average annual value, but his age (37) might cap the length of those offers at three years. Carlos Rodón had an utterly dominant platform year, but he dealt with some shoulder concerns at the end of the season that could be a red flag for teams. Marcus Stroman has a long track record of durability, great strike-throwing and elite ground-ball numbers, but he doesn’t miss bats the way most teams covet from their top-of-the-rotation arms.

It’s not out of the question someone from that trio could land a deal that surpasses general expectations. It seems more likely, though, that Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray will ultimately wind up battling one another for the highest overall guarantee among pitchers. Let’s dig into each player’s profile to determine which one teams should have at the top of their preference lists.

For the first few seasons of his career, Gausman occasionally flashed the potential that had made him a top five draft pick. But he also had bouts of inconsistency and struggled badly enough in 2019 to be waived by the Braves and then non-tendered by the Reds, who had plucked him off the wire.

Since signing with the Giants over the 2019-20 offseason, Gausman has taken his game to a new level. His 3.62 ERA in 2020 was among the best marks of his career, and even that belied elite strikeout and walk numbers. That came in only twelve outings because of the shortened season, and Gausman accepted a qualifying offer last winter in hopes of proving he’d markedly improved over a bigger body of work.

Betting on himself is in position to pay off handsomely. Gausman stayed healthy all year, working 192 innings of 2.81 ERA ball. He didn’t quite sustain his 2020 strikeout rate, but this past season’s 29.3% mark still checked in fourteenth among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings. Gausman’s 15.3% swinging strike rate was even more impressive, placing fifth among that same group. He’ll now market back-to-back great years of performance. He has missed bats at an elite level for the past few seasons, and the righty has always had plus control.

There’s not a whole lot to nitpick about Gausman’s numbers, although it’s at least worth considering that he succeeds somewhat non-traditionally. He’s tinkered with different breaking pitches but has never found an effective one. Instead, he leaned more heavily than ever on his four-seam fastball (52.7%) and splitter (35.3%) in 2021. Per Statcast, Gausman was one of just fourteen starting pitchers to use a split more than 10% of the time. Most teams are probably willing to look past that unconventional repertoire, since Gausman now has a multi-year track record of great play. Still, it’s a lot more common to see aces with a Ray-like arsenal (primarily fastball-slider), and that could be a factor for some clubs.

Great as Gausman was this past season, Ray was arguably better. The southpaw posted a 2.84 ERA over 193 1/3 frames. He thrived in a division that sent three other teams to the playoffs and split his year between a trio of home ballparks, all of which seemed to be favorable for hitters. Gausman spent the year in the National League, where he’d get to face the opposing pitcher on most nights; Ray wasn’t as fortunate pitching in the American League. And while Gausman turns 31 in January, Ray will pitch almost all of next season at age-30 before turning 31 in October.

Ray’s underlying metrics were similarly elite. He fanned 32.1% of opponents, the sixth-highest mark leaguewide. Ray checked in one spot ahead of Gausman on the swinging strike rate leaderboard, with his 15.5% mark ranking fourth. When batters did make contact against Ray, they were more successful than they’d been hitting against Gausman. Ray was more prone to hard contact and fly balls, and he indeed gave up more home runs. But on a batter-by-batter basis, they were similarly effective at preventing baserunners. Opponents hit .210/.267/.401 against Ray; they batted .210/.264/.345 off Gausman.

Of course, teams will take the players’ pre-2021 bodies of work into account when making a decision of this magnitude. For Gausman versus Ray, that only makes things more complicated. While Gausman was great in 2020, Ray had an awful season. He walked 17.9% of batters faced that year, posting a 6.62 ERA in 51 2/3 innings. It was a nightmarish year, but it’s also easy to see teams writing that off as a fluke. Not only was 2020 a season of inherent small samples, Ray made an obvious alteration to his throwing mechanics entering that year. Clearly, Ray’s pre-2020 adjustments negatively impacted his control, but he returned to his original throwing motion in 2021, as he explained to Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic last month.

While Gausman’s 2020 was unquestionably better than Ray’s, the latter had the better career track record going into that year. He was an All-Star in 2017, a year in which he finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting. He had a top ten strikeout rate (minimum 100 innings) every season from 2016-19. So while Ray was one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 2020, he certainly hasn’t come out of nowhere.

To recap: Gausman and Ray had similarly elite platform seasons. The former was also great in 2020, while the latter had a terrible season. Ray was far better before 2020, though, and he’s nearly a full year younger. Now, we’ll turn it over to the readership. Whom should teams looking to make a splash in free agency this winter prefer: Gausman or Ray?

(poll link for app users)

Organizational Notes: Wiley, Rockies, Padres, Rays, Prieto

By Mark Polishuk | October 23, 2021 at 2:57pm CDT

Rockies director of pitching operations Mark Wiley is retiring, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports. Wiley has worked in his current position since 2012, though he previously worked for Colorado’s organization as a player personnel director (in 2000) and as a front office assistant (2006-07). Wiley might be best known for his seven stints as a big league pitching coach, serving in the role on two separate occasions with each of the Orioles, Indians, and Marlins, and coaching once with the Royals.

All in all, the 73-year-old Wiley has been in baseball for 52 years in many different roles. Apart from his pitching coach gigs and his three jobs with the Rockies, Wiley has also worked as a scout, a minor league manager and coach, special assistant to former Marlins GM Michael Hill, and he had an 11-year playing career that included 21 Major League games. We at MLBTR wish Wiley all the best in retirement, and congratulate him on a fine career.

Latest On Dusty Baker

By Mark Polishuk | October 23, 2021 at 2:16pm CDT

Dusty Baker is headed back to the World Series, after the veteran manager’s Astros triumphed over the Red Sox in the ALCS. This is the sixth time Baker has been part of the Fall Classic as a player (winning with the Dodgers in 1981), coach, and manager, and he is the ninth manager to lead both an American League and a National League team to a league pennant. While capping off his managerial career with a championship would seem like a storybook ending, Baker isn’t planning to retire even if the Astros win it all, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

Back in December, Baker was somewhat non-committal about his future with Houston, saying “Depends how I feel. Depends on how the team feels about me….You never know what changes are going to come about in life.” More recently, however, Baker has stated that he does want to keep managing into 2022 and perhaps beyond. Rosenthal writes that Baker would love to collect the 13 more regular-season victories he needs to reach 2000 wins for his managerial career, and obviously Baker has interest in helping guide the Astros to another run at the Commissioner’s Trophy in 2022.

Baker’s contract with the Astros is up after the season, as he was originally signed to a one-year deal with a 2021 club option year. Both Baker and team management has indicated that they will hold off on negotiations until after the year, though Baker has a pretty notable supporter in Astros owner Jim Crane. Talking with FOX 26’s Mark Berman, Crane reiterated that the two sides will talk after the playoffs are over, but said “Dusty deserves another shot for next year. We’ll see where it goes.”

Given all of the success Baker has enjoyed in his two seasons in Houston, it would count as a surprise at this point if the 72-year-old isn’t back on the bench next season. That said, there wasn’t much normal about the circumstances of Baker’s hiring in the first place, as the veteran skipper was brought on to replace the fired A.J. Hinch in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal. Crane personally hired Baker as manager even before the hiring of new general manager James Click, and most GMs would prefer to have their own managerial hire in place. Crane would obviously have the final say-so if he made a point of retaining Baker, though the owner has said that he and Click will mutually decide on Baker’s future.

How The Astros Built Their AL Championship Team

By Mark Polishuk | October 23, 2021 at 12:30pm CDT

The Astros will be playing in the World Series for the third time in five seasons, though only six players remain from that 2017 championship team, and only four of that group (minus the injured Lance McCullers Jr. and the non-rostered Marwin Gonzalez) actually appeared in Houston’s ALCS victory over the Red Sox. While the Astros continue to rely on some familiar cornerstones of that controversial 2017 team, there has been quite a bit of roster overhaul over a relatively short period of time, not to mention a new manager and GM in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal.

Proving that there is no one way to design a great team, the Astros used several different methods of transactions to collect their players. Perhaps just as importantly, the Astros have been able to retain key talents through contract extensions, or by re-signing players once they reach free agency. Here is the breakdown of how the Astros built their latest pennant winner….

Homegrown, international signings: Jose Altuve (2007), Framber Valdez (2015), Jose Urquidy (2015), Cristian Javier (2015), Luis Garcia (2017)

Landing a franchise second baseman, three members of a starting rotation, and a key swingman via the international signing market is impressive enough. But, the Astros’ feat stands out even more considering that none of these five players were considered blue-chip prospects at the time of their signings, and were signed for merely thousands of dollars.

Altuve’s legend is well-known by this point, as the diminutive second baseman was inked for a modest $15K bonus and has now become a Houston sports icon. The savings extended into Altuve’s first multi-year deal (a four-year pact worth $12.5MM in guaranteed money plus club options for 2018 and 2019) but Altuve then scored a much bigger payday with his second extension, a five-year/$151MM pact that runs through the 2024 campaign.

Going forward, the Astros’ international investment in their pitching corps might be an even more important overall development than landing Altuve. Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, and Javier combined for a 3.38 ERA over 498 1/3 innings, and all four pitcher are controlled through at least the 2025 season. The quartet has already become an integral part of one contending team, and considering the veteran losses the Astros could face in free agency this offseason, Houston can feel some level of comfort in already having a new wave of arms already in place.

Homegrown, amateur draft: Jason Castro (2008 draft, first round, 10th pick), Carlos Correa (2012 draft, 1-1), Alex Bregman (2015, 1-2), Kyle Tucker (2015, 1-5), Jake Meyers (2017, 13-391), Chas McCormick (2017, 21-631).

Let’s begin with the caveat of Castro, who began his career in Houston through the lean years of the team’s rebuild, but left for the Twins as a free agent in the 2016-17 offseason — just before the Astros broke through to reach the Fall Classic. Castro returned to Houston this past winter, signing a two-year, $7MM free agent contract.

There is also McCullers (the 41st overall pick of the 2012 draft), a huge part of the Astros’ regular season success in 2021 but whose postseason has been marred and possibly ended by injury. Brandon Bielak (2017, 11-331) also threw 50 innings mostly as a reliever in 2021, but hasn’t been included on Houston’s postseason rosters.

Center field was seen as a weak link for the Astros in the wake of George Springer’s departure in free agency, yet the team ended up getting very solid production from Myles Straw for much of the season, and then from the rookie tandem of Meyers and McCormick when Straw was dealt at the trade deadline. Meyers is another injury absence from the ALCS, so McCormick and Jose Siri look to be handling center field duties during the World Series.

That leaves the three gems of the Astros’ extensive rebuild, as the club made no pretense about its intent to bottom out with multiple losing seasons in order to restock with premium young talent at the top of the draft. Hard as it may seem now, but Correa was actually seen as a bit of a surprise as the first overall pick in 2012, as the Astros took a more “signable” player so they could spread out their draft bonus money on other picks. With both Correa and McCullers developing into stars, that plan worked to perfection.

Tanking for multiple years gave Houston multiple chances to score on high draft picks, which is why the Astros haven’t really suffered any consequences for drafting consecutive 1-1 picks (Mark Appel in 2013, Brady Aiken in 2014) who didn’t reach the majors. Indeed, after not reaching an agreement with Aiken due to concerns over his UCL health, the Astros received the second overall pick in the 2015 draft as compensation. The result was the selection of both Bregman and Tucker within the first five picks, which stands out as one of the more impressive first-round hauls in recent memory.

International free agent signings: Yuli Gurriel (July 2016)

While Altuve and company turned out to be incredible bargains on the international amateur market, the Astros had to pay Gurriel $47.5MM on a five-year deal, outbidding several teams for the Cuban star as he made the jump to Major League Baseball. Gurriel didn’t make his big league debut until he was 32 years old, and while there has been some inconsistency along the way, Gurriel has proven to be a very solid contributor, with a .293/.337/.467 slash line over 2721 career plate appearances in The Show.

Despite a lackluster 2020 season, Gurriel still received a contract extension in late September 2020, giving Houston control over Gurriel in 2021 (for a $6.5MM salary) and 2022 (a club option worth $8MM, with a $500K buyout). The extension surprised many at the time, though it has proven to be one of GM James Click’s canniest moves, as Gurriel rebounded with the best season of his six-year MLB career and won the AL batting title. Unsurprisingly, Astros owner Jim Crane has already implied that Gurriel will be back with the team via that club option.

Free agent signings: Michael Brantley, Jake Odorizzi, Ryne Stanek, Jose Siri

Brantley signed a two-year, $32MM deal to join the Astros in the 2018-19 offseason, and then re-signed with the club for that exact same contract this past winter. While Brantley missed some time with relatively minor injuries this season, he has still been a productive hitter, adding to the success of his overall tenure in Houston. Brantley has hit .310/.367/.474 with 35 home runs over 1332 PA in an Astros uniform, twice receiving All-Star nods.

The Marlins non-tendered Stanek (rather than pay him a projected $800K) in the wake of a mediocre 2020 performance. The Astros swooped in with a $1.1MM deal and ended up landing a controllable reliever who bounced back pretty nicely with a 3.42 ERA and 28.6% strikeout rate over 68 1/3 innings, though Stanek’s control and hard-contact numbers weren’t impressive. Stanek has stood out as a workhorse in the playoffs, with a 1.35 ERA over eight appearances and 6 2/3 innings during Houston’s run.

Odorizzi was another signing from the most recent offseason, though Odorizzi didn’t sign his $23.5MM contract until March. Between missing part of the usual Spring Training ramp-up and then suffering multiple injuries, Odorizzi’s innings were managed for much of the season, though he did contribute a 4.21 ERA over 104 2/3 frames. Thus far in the postseason, Odorizzi has only pitched in one game, tossing four innings in relief of Garcia in the Astros’ 9-5 loss to the Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALCS.

Siri was a minor league signing who had never played as much as a game in the majors until this past September 3, and now he’ll very likely to be headed to the World Series as Meyers’ replacement. Siri played seven seasons in the Reds’ farm system (and was briefly a Mariner and a Giant via waiver claims) before signing with the Astros this past winter, and he posted a .956 OPS in his first 49 PA as a big leaguer.

Trades: Justin Verlander hasn’t thrown a pitch this season due to Tommy John surgery, and his tenure with the Astros could be over if he signs elsewhere in free agency this winter. Verlander is certainly worthy of mention, of course, given his huge role in the 2017 World Series after the Astros nabbed him from the Tigers on August 31, 2017, and how Verlander then re-upped with Houston on a two-year, $66MM extension. (Unfortunately, Verlander has thrown only six innings over the course of that extension.)

Beyond the injured Verlander, ten players on the ALCS roster were acquired via trade…

Yordan Alvarez: As this section indicates, the Astros are no strangers to notable deals at the trade deadline. However, this one from 2016 drew only a little attention at the time, yet picking up Alvarez from the Dodgers for reliever Josh Fields has turned out to be one of the steals of the decade. Alvarez has looked like one of baseball’s best hitters when healthy, and just earned ALCS MVP honors for his huge series against Boston.
Zack Greinke: Completed just under the buzzer at the 2019 trade deadline, Houston acquired Greinke from the Diamondback for a four-prospect package of J.B. Bukauskas, Josh Rojas, Corbin Martin, and Seth Beer. Rojas was the least-regarded of the four youngsters at the time, though he has gone on to enjoy the most success thus far at the big league level. Greinke has been mostly solid, if generally not quite up to his past ace-level performance during his two-plus seasons in Houston, and his strikeout rate took a big dip in 2021. While Greinke tossed 171 innings, some injuries late in the season has turned him into something of a depth arm on the playoff roster, as Greinke has thrown only 2 1/3 innings this postseason.
Martin Maldonado: A two-time trade acquisition, the Astros first landed Maldonado from the Angels a few days’ prior to the 2018 deadline, then brought him back on deadline day 2019 after Maldonado had played with the Royals and Cubs earlier that season. Maldonado has become a Houston fixture, as the team has signed him to a pair of contract extensions that will keep him in the fold until at least the end of the 2022 season.
Aledmys Diaz: The versatile Diaz has been a valuable utility piece for the Astros since being acquired from the Blue Jays in November 2018.
Ryan Pressly: The right-hander was already an underrated reliever during his time with the Twins, but he took it to another level after the Astros landed him in a July 2018 trade. Pressly signed an extension prior to the 2019 season that now stands as a three-year, $27.5MM deal after Pressly unlocked a vesting option to guarantee his salary for 2022 season — a $10MM price the Astros are surely happy to cover given how well Pressly has pitched.
Basically The Entire Bullpen: The Pressly trade is the headline move, and Houston has generally looked to the trade market in assembling its relief corps. Blake Taylor was acquired as part of the Jake Marisnick trade with the Mets in December 2019, while fellow southpaw Brooks Raley was picked up from the Reds in August 2020. The Astros targeted bullpen help in three separate trades near this year’s deadline, including the surprising acquisition of Kendall Graveman and (the now-injured) Rafael Montero from the AL West rival Mariners. The emergence of McCormick and Meyers gave the Astros enough comfort to trade Straw to the Indians for Phil Maton, as well as another young outfielder in Bryan De La Cruz and a swingman in Austin Pruitt to the Marlins for Yimi Garcia. Graveman has been the best of the new faces in both the regular season and playoffs, while Maton has added some key innings in the postseason.

Dodgers To Start Walker Buehler In NLCS Game 6

By Mark Polishuk | October 23, 2021 at 9:04am CDT

The Dodgers have announced that Walker Buehler will get the start in tonight’s crucial Game 6 of the National League Championship Series. Buehler will take the ball in place of Max Scherzer, who was initially slated to start but was scratched yesterday.

Buehler didn’t look sharp in Game 3 against the Braves, allowing two earned runs (and four runs total) on six hits and three walks over 3 2/3 innings. He’ll now take the ball again on only three days’ rest, working on short rest for just the second time in his career, and the second time this postseason. Los Angeles deployed Buehler for both Games 1 and 4 of the NLDS, and also on three days’ rest, Buehler held the Giants to one earned run over 4 1/3 innings of work.

Since this is the only instance of Buehler pitching on short rest, it is hard to say whether or not his shaky performance in Game 3 (which came a week after Game 4 of the NLDS) was due to after-effects from having only three days to recover and prepare between starts. Surely the Dodgers would have felt much more comfortable having Buehler fully rested for a potential Game 7, though given how the Dodgers have more or less used an “all hands on deck” philosophy with their postseason pitching mix, it wouldn’t have been shocking if Buehler had been used to record some key outs in relief of Scherzer in Game 6.

That possible scenario didn’t come to pass, however, as Scherzer continues to be bothered by the “dead arm” that plagued him in his Game 2 start against the Braves. Scherzer was pitching for the third time in six days in that outing, after he had thrown 110 pitches in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Giants, then came into Game 5 as a closer to seal the series with a scoreless ninth inning. Returning to the mound three days later against Atlanta, Scherzer threw 79 pitches in 4 1/3 innings, giving up two runs on a walk and four hits (though with seven strikeouts).

In the big picture, Buehler is type of ace a team would love to have on the mound for a possible elimination game, except for the X-factor of how the short rest could impact his work. It remains to be seen exactly how long of a leash Buehler will receive from manager Dave Roberts, as while Buehler is an ace, the Dodgers don’t have any margin for error being down 3-2 in the series. Pulling Buehler after, for example, another 3 2/3 innings will leave a lot of outs for the Dodgers bullpen to cover, especially since Joe Kelly has already been removed from the NLCS roster due to injury, and Justin Bruihl’s availability may also be in question due to arm soreness.

Using Buehler tonight also raises the question of how the Dodgers will handle the pitching in a potential Game 7, though obviously L.A. just wants to win tonight before worrying about tomorrow’s issues. Julio Urias (Game 4’s starter after pitching in relief in Game 2) would also be working on short rest if he pitched in Game 7, though since the Dodgers have already had two bullpen games in this series, normal starter/reliever roles would quite likely be thrown out the window in a Game 7 scenario. It also isn’t known if Scherzer will be available for any action at all, even a one-inning appearance.

Report: Max Scherzer Won’t Start NLCS Game Six

By Darragh McDonald | October 22, 2021 at 11:00pm CDT

Max Scherzer won’t be starting for the Dodgers in the sixth game of the NLCS as planned, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. As Castillo details, Scherzer’s wasn’t feeling 100% on Sunday when he started game two. The hurler himself said his “arm was dead.” Despite that, the team’s plan was still to start Scherzer in game six tomorrow. Juan Toribio of MLB.com reports that “Scherzer’s arm just hasn’t bounced back” as the team hoped. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports that Scherzer is a possibility for game seven, but it will depend on how he feels between now and then.

This is certainly a concerning development for a Dodgers team that has pushed its pitching staff to the brink of exhaustion this postseason. Since they were in the midst of a race with the Giants for the division crown all season, they had no opportunity to ease off the gas pedal and had to lean on their best pitchers right until the season’s final day. Since they came up short in that race, they had to immediately gear up for the wild card game, which Scherzer started, throwing 94 pitches as the Dodgers walked-off the Cardinals and advanced to the NLDS.

Since then, they have used their starters so much that they had to opt for a bullpen game yesterday, despite the fact that they were facing a 3-1 deficit to Atlanta. Seven different pitchers took the mound for the club and led them to an 11-2 victory that seemed to set the stage for Scherzer to take the ball in game six, attempting to even up the series and force a game seven.

Now that Scherzer is off the table, the Dodgers have a few options, although all of them less appealing than a healthy Scherzer. One would be another bullpen game, although that’s a tall ask given that they just had one. However, they do have tonight off, which should theoretically replenish all of their relievers, at least to some degree.

Another option would be turn to David Price, who was just added to the roster to take the place of the injured Joe Kelly. But Price hasn’t pitched in three weeks, with his last appearance coming October 2nd. And even then, he wasn’t stretched out to start. His last six appearances on the season were out of the bullpen and less than two innings. He was stretched out before that, with five consecutive outings of at least 3 2/3 innings, but the last of those was August 28th. That means he’s almost two months removed from carrying a starter’s workload.

Tony Gonsolin was stretched out to finish the season and could also be leaned on for some innings, though he didn’t pitch at all in the NLDS and has only thrown short stints in the NLCS. His last outing was 39 pitches over two innings on Wednesday, the same night that Julio Urias threw 92 pitches over five innings.

Another option, and probably the best one, would be to have Walker Buehler pitch on short rest. His last outing was on Tuesday, though he only threw 76 pitches after getting chased from the game in the fourth inning.

One way or another, manager Dave Roberts and the rest of the Dodgers’ staff will have to be creative. In order to make it into the World Series, they’ll need to find a way to grind through 18 innings without their best option.

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