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Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #5: Pirates Get A Shortstop With Elite Tools For Tony Watson

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7. and No. 6. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 6…

The Pirates endured a long postseason drought that spanned the changing of the millenium. They made the postseason in three straight years from 1990 to 1992 but then didn’t return for over 20 years. They had another three-year run beginning in 2013, qualifying for the Wild Card game that year as well as the next two. They couldn’t keep it going in 2016, dropping to 78-83 and missing the postseason.

The club had many star players in that time, particularly Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Russell Martin, Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and others, but one fixture of those Pittsburgh clubs was left-handed reliever Tony Watson. Drafted by the Bucs in 2007, he made it to the majors in 2011. He tossed 41 innings in his debut season with a 3.95 ERA, securing 10 holds in the process.

He would get even better in the seasons to come, his peak coinciding with those postseason years for the Pirates. He had a miniscule 1.63 ERA in 77 1/3 innings in 2014, striking out 26.6% of batters faced while walking 4.9% and getting grounders on 47.7% of balls in play. He only notched a couple of saves as Mark Melancon was in the closer’s role, but Watson tallied 34 holds.

Watson’s effectiveness would fade a bit in the subsequent seasons, hardly a surprise given that his excellent 2014 campaign would be almost impossible to maintain. His ERA climbed to 1.91 in 2015 and then 3.06 in 2016. His strikeout rate also fell to 21.2% and 21.3% in those seasons. Nonetheless, he was still a very effective relief pitcher.

The Pirates weren’t able to bounce back from their down season in 2016. At the end of July 2017, they were sporting a record of 51-54, fourth place in the National League Central and 8.5 games back in the Wild Card race. Watson was pitching fine that year, with a 3.66 ERA at the time. But since he was just a few months away from free agency and the club was struggling, it made sense to move on.

Watson had spent his entire career with the Pirates up until he was traded to the Dodgers on July 31, 2017. He made 24 appearances for his new club with a 2.70 ERA as they finished 104-58, the best record in the majors. He made 11 more appearances in the postseason with a 2.70 ERA. The Dodgers eventually lost the World Series in what will go down as a major “what if” since it was the now-infamous sign-stealing Astros club that emerged victorious in seven games.

In exchange for Watson, the Pirates got a couple of younger players from the Dodgers. One of them was 21-year-old right-hander Angel German. He wasn’t considered a top prospect but had a 1.91 ERA in Single-A that year. Unfortunately, he bumped that to a 6.92 ERA in High-A in 2018 and then a 4.33 in Double-A in 2019. He reached free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Rays going into 2020, but was released in May of 2020 amid the pandemic shutdown. He hasn’t pitched in an official capacity since.

The other player in the deal was 18-year-old infielder Oneil Cruz. He had signed with the Dodgers in July of 2015 as a 16-year-old international amateur, securing a bonus of $950K. He played in the Dominican Summer League in 2016, hitting .294/.367/.444 in 211 plate appearances and stealing 11 bases.

Going into 2017, Baseball America ranked him the #27 prospect in the Dodgers system and their report highlighted something that has been a subject of interest in the years since: his size. “Cruz is a great example of the challenges unique to international scouting,” the report states. “As a 15-year-old working out for clubs in the Dominican Republic, Cruz was a 6-foot-1 shortstop. By the time he signed with the Dodgers for $950,000 as a 16-year-old, Cruz had shot up to 6-foot-4. He grew taller after signing, and by the time the 2016 Dominican Summer League season began, he was pushing 6-foot-6.”

Cruz actually was slumping in the first half of 2017, as he was hitting just .240/.293/.342 in 89 Single-A games. He had eight home runs and eight stolen bases but was striking out at a 29.3% clip. Nonetheless, the Pirates decided to take a gamble on him and brought him aboard in the Watson deal.

Six years later, it certainly seems like it was a worthwhile gamble. Cruz has risen through the ranks over the years, becoming a top 100 prospect thanks to his elite tools. He got a very brief two-game cup of coffee in the majors at the end of 2021 but then was sent back to the minors at the start of 2022. He was recalled in June and showed both the reasons for his prospect hype but also the concerning parts of his game.

Cruz has arguably the best raw athletic traits of any player in the league. His 122.4 mph maximum exit velocity was tops in the majors last year. His sprint speed was in the 98th percentile. His arm strength was in the 97th percentile. In short, he can hit for power, run and throw among the best in the world.

But one of the major questions around Cruz as a prospect was whether his height, now 6’7″, would prevent him from playing shortstop. No one that size had ever successfully played the position before. The other question was whether or not his penchant for strikeouts would become too much of a problem. Neither of those questions were definitively answered last year.

Despite hitting 17 home runs in 87 games, Cruz went down on strikes in 34.9% of his plate appearances. Among players with at least 350 trips to the plate, only Joey Gallo and Chris Taylor were punched out at a higher rate. On the defensive side of things, the reviews were mixed. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of +1, but Ultimate Zone Rating came in at -7.5 and Outs Above Average at -9.

2023 was going to be an important season for Cruz, still just 24, to show the Pirates if he were capable of improving in either of those areas. Unfortunately, after just nine games, he suffered an ankle fracture during an awkward slide in a close play at home plate. The estimated timeline on that injury was four months, meaning he could be back in August if that prediction holds.

It’s still unknown whether Cruz will reach his full potential or not. Despite the injury setback, the Pirates have time to find out, as Cruz isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. He and the club have also discussed an extension that could potentially keep him around even longer. Regardless of how it plays out, the Pirates have a player who arguably has one of the highest ceilings in the sport. If he takes a step forward in terms of defense and plate discipline, his tools will give him the chance to be one of the best players in the league.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees’ Greg Allen To Miss Six To Eight Weeks With Hip Flexor Strain

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The Yankees placed Greg Allen on the 10-day injured list over the weekend after the outfielder strained his right hip flexor. It’s apparently a serious issue, as manager Aaron Boone told reporters this afternoon the club expected Allen to miss six to eight weeks (via Chris Kirschner of the Athletic).

It’s a tough break for the switch-hitting outfielder. Allen was looking to establish himself in a New York outfield that was already without Harrison Bader and since lost Aaron Judge to injury. He’d picked up a homer and a triple within his first 17 plate appearances since being acquired from the Red Sox in a minor trade last month. Allen has had a pair of brief stints with the Yankees over the past three years and performed well in each, though his overall MLB track record is modest.

In 292 career games, he’s a .231/.299/.340 hitter. Allen had some opportunities to carve out a role in Cleveland early in his career. His recent playing time has been more sporadic. He’s generally struggled offensively and is now on a second notable injury in as many seasons. He lost a good chunk of last year with a hamstring injury sustained while playing for the Pirates.

While the injuries to Judge and Bader are obviously far more significant problems, losing Allen for an extended stretch deals another hit to a Yankee outfield with few established players. New York has a group of Willie Calhoun, Jake Bauers, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Oswaldo Cabrera and Billy McKinney to take the reps on the grass. New York is using Giancarlo Stanton exclusively at designated hitter for now after an injured list stint due to a hamstring strain.

Bauers has hit well in limited playing time. Calhoun has been a roughly league average hitter. Kiner-Falefa and Cabrera have struggled, while McKinney just came up from the minors this week. Even once Judge and Bader come back, the Yankees figure to look for ways to add to the outfield via trade this summer.

Rockies Remove Pierce Johnson From Closer Role

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The Rockies will no longer use right-hander Pierce Johnson as the closer, manager Bud Black told the team’s beat (relayed by Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). Black didn’t declare a definitive replacement but pointed to Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird as candidates to step into the role.

Johnson signed a one-year, $5MM free agent deal with his hometown club last offseason. It was a roll of the dice from the Colorado front office considering he’d been limited by injury to 14 1/3 innings during his final season as a Padre. Johnson has been healthy in 2023 but hasn’t performed at the level the organization had envisioned.

Over 24 innings, the veteran hurler has been tagged for a 7.50 ERA. He hasn’t had any trouble missing bats, as he’s punching out 27.7% of opponents while picking up swinging strikes at a solid 11.9% clip. Yet his control has been far too inconsistent. Johnson has walked over 14% of batters faced. He’s also surrendered plenty of loud contact, and while it’s unlikely that nearly 40% of balls in play will continue to fall for hits, the combination of free passes and barrels has led to disappointing results.

Johnson’s raw save rate (11 of 13) isn’t bad. Each of his blown saves have come in his last two opportunities, though. A three-run ninth inning to turn a 4-3 lead into a 6-4 loss to the Giants yesterday will lead the club in another direction. Johnson could still play an important role in the Colorado bullpen, but it’ll come in middle to late innings work for the moment.

Lawrence and Bird have each performed much better through the season’s first couple months. The former carries a 3.41 ERA across 34 1/3 innings. A lower-slot righty, Lawrence presents a particularly tough look for same-handed hitters. He’s striking out almost 27% of opponents and generating grounders on over half the batted balls he allows. Lawrence has had scattershot control in years past, but this season’s 9.4% walk rate is tolerable.

Bird, 27, leads Colorado relievers with 41 1/3 innings pitched. He’s sitting on a 3.05 ERA and, like Lawrence, is keeping the ball on the ground at a high level. While a modest 9% swinging strike rate might make it hard for him to continue punching out a quarter of opposing hitters, that shouldn’t be an issue so long as he’s picking up grounders at a near-57% clip.

Red Sox Transfer Chris Sale To 60-Day Injured List

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The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves today, some of which were previously reported, though some were new developments. Outfielder Adam Duvall has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list while left-hander Joe Jacques has had his contract selected. To open two active roster spots, lefty Matt Dermody has been designated for assignment while infielder Enmanuel Valdéz was optioned to Triple-A. To open one more 40-man roster spot, lefty Chris Sale has been transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Sox informed reporters, including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, that Sale has a stress reaction in his shoulder blade. He won’t require surgery but he will be shut down for three to four weeks before being reevaluated.

Sale, 34, was once one of the most dominant pitchers in the league but he has been severely held back by injuries in recent years. He averaged over 200 innings per season from 2012 to 2017 but was held to roughly 150 per year in the two following seasons. He made trips to the injured list in 2018 due to shoulder inflammation then dealt with elbow inflammation the following year. He ultimately required Tommy John surgery in March of 2020, causing him to miss that entire season.

He returned late in 2021 and was able to make nine starts that year. It was hoped he would be set for a return to full-time work in 2022 but he dealt with a stress reaction in his ribs that kept him out until July. He was hit by a comebacker in his second start, fracturing a finger. While on the injured list again, he broke his wrist in a bicycle accident that ended his season.

Here in 2023, it was again hoped that he could perhaps return to a regular starting role. That was the case for a while, as he made 11 starts with a 4.58 ERA, but he landed on the injured list again on June 2 due to shoulder inflammation. He’ll now be ineligible to return until August, though even that seems contingent on a bit of luck in the health department. The aforementioned shutdown period will keep him out of action for most of the rest of June. Even if he’s healthy after that, he’ll need most of July to build back up and go on a rehab assignment.

In the short term, the Red Sox will be figuring out how to proceed without Sale. They have recently been running out a group with veteran James Paxton alongside younger pitchers like Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford, while struggles from Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta got both of those guys pushed into the bullpen.

In the long-term, the Sox will have to wonder what they can expect from Sale going forward. He is playing this year on a salary of $27.5MM and will make that same figure next year as part of the extension he and the club signed going into 2019. There’s also a $20MM club option for 2025 with no buyout. Due to his carousel of injuries, he’s pitched just over 100 innings since the end of the 2019 campaign.

Astros Place Yordan Alvarez On Injured List

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3:10pm: The corresponding move is that catcher César Salazar has been recalled, per Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle.

2:20pm: The Astros announced that outfielder Yordan Alvarez has been placed on the 10-day injured list with right oblique discomfort. The Astros are in Cleveland tonight but he will head back to Houston for further evaluation. The corresponding move isn’t publicly known at this time.

Alvarez was removed from yesterday’s game against the Blue Jays due to this oblique issue. It’s still unknown exactly how serious it is, with the further testing hopefully shedding more light on it, but he’ll now be on the shelf for at least 10 days.

Time will tell how significant his absence will be, but the Astros will undoubtedly be worse off for whatever that length ultimately proves to be. Alvarez is one of the premiere hitters in the league, having hit .293/.384/.588 in his career for a wRC+ of 164. He has been right in line with that kind of production this year, having hit 17 home runs already while slashing .272/.384/.579 for a wRC+ of 165.

Injuries have been a focus of the Astros in 2023 as Michael Brantley has been out all year, Jose Altuve has missed significant time and the pitching staff has had a handful of notable absences as well. Despite all of that, they are still 36-27 and hanging onto a Wild Card spot, though they are just half a game ahead of the Blue Jays at the moment. Losing the potent bat of Alvarez will create another challenge for the club going forward.

Alvarez has played 22 games in left field this year but has otherwise been serving as the designated hitter. Without Alvarez or Brantley, the club will have Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Corey Julks in the outfield mix and could potentially rotate those players through the DH slot now, though the corresponding move could also put another player into that mix as well.

Pirates Designate Chase De Jong For Assignment

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The Pirates announced that outfielder Canaan Smith-Njigba has been recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis. In a corresponding move, right-hander Chase De Jong was designated for assignment. Their 40-man roster count is now down to 37.

De Jong, 29, has bounced on and off the Pirates’ roster since signing a minor league deal in January of 2021. He had his contract selected that year but spent much of the campaign on the injured list and was outrighted at season’s end. He returned on another minor league deal in 2022 and ended up having a nice season in Pittsburgh. He had his contract selected in April and eventually posted a 2.64 ERA in 71 2/3 innings.

That was enough for him to keep his roster spot through the winter, though there were reasons to suspect it wasn’t fully sustainable. His .222 batting average on balls in play and 86.3% strand rate were both on the fortunate side, leading to a 4.74 FIP and 4.38 SIERA. His luck has swung the other way this year in a small sample, as he has a .308 BABIP and 51.1% strand rate, leading to a 13.50 ERA in 11 1/3 innings. Beyond the luck, his 20.1% strikeout rate from last year is down to just 11.7% so far this year, while he’s also allowed six homers in that short time frame.

The righty was already designated for assignment in May, after which he cleared waivers and was outrighted to Indianapolis. He had the right to elect free agency based on previous career outrights but opted to accept and got his roster spot back a few days ago. He made one appearance since then, allowing six earned runs in two innings on Tuesday. Based on his rough season, it now seems possible that the same sequence of events will play out again, with De Jong being put on waivers and clearing. If that comes to pass, he would once again have the right to elect free agency but might simply accept an outright assignment like he did a few weeks ago.

Blue Jays Designate Anthony Bass For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced that right-hander Mitch White has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and will be active for tonight’s game. Fellow righty Anthony Bass was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Bass, 35, was acquired from the Marlins at last year’s trade deadline. Between the two clubs, he posted a 1.54 ERA on the season. The Blue Jays exercised a $3MM club option to keep him around for 2023 but his results have taken a step back this season, as he has a 4.95 ERA thus far. His 26.5% strikeout rate from last year is down to 21.6% here in 2023, his walk rate has gone from 7.3% to 10.2% and his ground ball rate from 41.2% to 38.3%.

Beyond the poor on-field results, Bass has made plenty of headlines in recent days for other reasons. For those unfamiliar, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com yesterday provided a rundown of the storyline that has surrounded Bass in recent weeks. It started on May 29 when the pitcher shared a video on Instagram wherein companies supporting the LGBTQ2S+ community were described as “evil” and “demonic.”

Bass read a written apology last week but did not take questions afterward. “We’re not going to pretend like this never happened,” manager John Schneider said at that time. “We’re not going to pretend like it’s the end and move on. There are definitely more steps that are going to follow.”

The issue came up again yesterday when Bass met with the media and did take questions this time. Though he maintained he was committed to self-reflection and working with Pride Toronto executive director Sherwin Modeste, he also seemed more upset by the negative attention than the actual content of what he shared. “I just felt like it was too much of a distraction. But I stand by my personal beliefs,” Bass said in relation to eventually deleting the video, “and everyone is entitled to their personal beliefs, right?”

It isn’t fully known what motivated the Jays to make today’s move, as it could theoretically be claimed that it was merely the result of Bass’s on-field performance and the return of White. But it was reported just yesterday that Bass was going to catch the ceremonial first pitch at tonight’s game, the start of Pride Weekend. It seems fair to expect that those plans have now changed, though general manager Ross Atkins will speak to the media at 3pm Eastern/2pm Central, per Matheson.

The Jays will now have one week to trade Bass or pass him through waivers. In the event he clears waivers, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining all of his salary, as a player with more than five years of service time. If that comes to pass, the Jays would remain on the hook for that money and any other club could sign him for the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the active roster.

As for White, he was acquired from the Dodgers last year. He had a 3.70 ERA at the time of the deal but struggled with a 7.74 mark after. He came into Spring Training set to compete with Yusei Kikuchi for the fifth starter job but suffered a shoulder impingement in February and elbow inflammation in March. He’s been on the injured list all season and began a rehab assignment in late April. He was throwing multi-inning outings, seemingly planning for a return to work as a starter, but was shut down for a few days in late May due to shoulder fatigue. He resumed his rehab in recent weeks but has been pitching shorter outings and now seems tickets for relief work, at least for the time being.

The Blue Jays have a hole in their rotation since optioning Alek Manoah recently, leaving them with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Kikuchi, with tomorrow’s starter still listed as TBD. They selected Bowden Francis recently and he could perhaps take the bulk of the innings, though White could factor in as well.

Tigers Claim Nick Solak, Transfer Spencer Turnbull To 60-Day IL

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The Tigers announced that they have claimed infielder Nick Solak off waivers from Atlanta and optioned him to Triple-A Toledo. To make room on the 40-man roster, right-hander Spencer Turnbull was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Solak, 28, continues his journey around the league, as he has bounced from team to team quite a bit in the past seven months. He spent the past few years with the Rangers but was traded to the Reds for cash in November of last year. He then went to the Mariners on another cash deal before successive waiver claims took him to the White Sox, Atlanta and now the Tigers.

The fact that Solak keeps losing his roster spot and finding another is a reflection of the fact that he has continued to success in the minors while struggling in the majors. He debuted in the big leagues in 2019 with a .293/.393/.491 showing but has hit a diminished .246/.317/.354 since then. His Triple-A slash is much closer to that 2019 output, coming in at .286/.368/.493.

Several teams have grabbed him in the hopes of unlocking that kind of showing at the big league level but it hasn’t quite happened since that encouraging debut in Texas. The Tigers will now be next in line for the experiment. Defensively, he came up as a second baseman but his glovework was generally considered poor and he was moved to a corner outfield role when the Rangers signed Marcus Semien. The Tigers could theoretically move him back to the keystone, though he has played exclusively in the outfield so far this season.

The Detroit outfield has taken quite a few hits this year, as each of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Austin Meadows and Matt Vierling are currently on the injured list. That leaves them with Akil Baddoo, Jake Marisnick and Zach McKinstry as their three regulars, with Tyler Nevin also factoring into the mix. Solak figures to give them a bit of depth for the time being, though he is in his final option year and will therefore be out of options next season.

As for Turnbull, he was placed on the injured list May 13 due to neck discomfort. He received an MRI on Monday, per Chris McCosky of Detroit News, and was cleared to start some activities but doesn’t seem close to a rehab assignment. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from his initial IL placement, which rules him out until early July.

Reds Place Graham Ashcraft On Injured List

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The Reds announced that they have placed right-hander Graham Ashcraft on the 15-day injured list due to a left calf contusion. In a corresponding move, they recalled right-hander Ricky Karcher, who will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Ashcraft was struck by a comebacker in his start yesterday and initially stayed in the game but it seems there are some lingering effects from that. The righty made his major league debut with a 4.89 ERA last year, getting ground balls at a strong 54.5% rate. However, this year’s results haven’t been as good, with a 47.6% grounder rate and 6.78 ERA. He’ll take at least a couple of weeks to heal up his calf and try to get in better form when he returns.

The Reds may not need to replace Ashcraft as they had been recently using a six-man rotation. Even without Ashcraft, they will still have Hunter Greene, Luke Weaver, Ben Lively, Brandon Williamson and Andrew Abbott. If they are fine with using a five-man set going forward, they could roll with that group.

As for Karcher, as mentioned up top, he has yet to make his major league debut. Now 25 years old, he was a 13th-round draft selection in 2017. He initially was working primarily as a starter but has pitched exclusively in relief since the minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He had a solid season last year, moving from Double-A to Triple-A. He tossed 56 2/3 innings between those two levels with a 3.65 ERA. His 15.9% walk rate was incredibly high, but he paired that with an excellent 35.1% strikeout rate.

At the end of that year, he was given a spot on the club’s 40-man roster to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Baseball America then listed him as the club’s 23rd best prospect coming into this year. Here in 2023, he’s been lit up with a 9.27 ERA, though there are reasons to believe that figure might be somewhat misleading. His .362 batting average on balls in play and 52.5% strand rate are both on the unfortunate side, leading to a 6.64 FIP. That’s still not great and is likely due to a frightening 27% walk rate, though he’s been better lately. Since May 3, he has a 2.40 ERA and 18.8% walk rate.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #6: The Cubs’ Fire Sale

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8 and No. 7. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 6…

The 2021 season marked a turning point in Cubs franchise history. Half a decade had elapsed since the team’s curse-breaking 2016 World Series run. The “dynasty” chatter that followed that seven-game victory over Cleveland never really manifested into reality. Chicago was a perennial contender, but that vaunted Cubs core never reached the World Series again and only won one game beyond the National League Division Series before the group was suddenly nearing the end of its time together.

Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks was a sensational group of talent around which to build, but Hendricks was the only one of the bunch to put pen to paper on an extension. The group continued inching closer to free agency, and as Lester and Arrieta declined in their latter years in Chicago, some of the shine wore off. The Cubs were a good team, but year after year, the season ended with now-former president of baseball operations Theo Epstein making similar comments about how the “offense broke” or something else went wrong.

Following a 2020 season that saw the Cubs swept out of a three-game Wild Card series against the Marlins in the expanded playoff format, Epstein stepped down from his role as president and turned baseball autonomy over to Jed Hoyer. It was baptism by fire in every sense of the cliche, as Hoyer faced a series of unenviable decisions, beginning with Schwarber. Fresh off a .188/.308/.393 showing in 244 plate appearances in 2020, Schwarber was non-tendered rather than offered a raise heading into his final year of arbitration. Not four weeks later, Yu Darvish was traded to the Padres in a salary-motivated deal that has to date produced just one prospect of any note (Owen Caissie).

Decision time was only just beginning for Hoyer and his staff. The Cubs would need to determine how to proceed with the trio of Bryant, Rizzo and Baez, each of whom were slated to become free agents following the 2021 season. Prior extension talks had never resulted in a deal — though Baez was reportedly quite close to signing before baseball grinded to a halt with the Covid pandemic in 2020. Chicago made one final effort to extend Rizzo that spring, but he spurned their five-year, $70MM offer (and has since banked three years and $56MM in guaranteed money with the Yankees).

The Cubs could’ve traded any of the bunch that offseason, and Bryant’s name in particular echoed throughout the rumor mill as much as it ever had. Ultimately, all three stayed put, and thus the ensuing narratives that would dominate the 2021 Cubs season were set into motion. Would any of Bryant, Baez or Rizzo stay? Was the core finally breaking up? Was this the team’s last chance?

The lackluster offseason headlined by trading the prior season’s Cy Young runner-up should’ve answered that final question on its own, but the Cubs surprised plenty of onlookers by not only fielding a competitive team but vying for first place in the division for much of the first few months. As late into the season as June 24, the Cubs were eight games over .500 and in a first-place tie for the NL Central lead with the Brewers.

A subsequent 11-game losing streak — the first of two 11-game losing streaks for that year’s Cubs — removed all doubt, however. By July 8, the Cubs were below .500, and the surging Brewers had remained hot. They held a 9.5-game lead over the second-place Reds, with Chicago and St. Louis tied for third in the division. The fire sale was coming, and virtually everyone knew it.

Rizzo was the first to go. A July 29 deal sent him to the Yankees in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Kevin Alcantara and 24-year-old righty Alexander Vizcaino. A day later, Baez was following Rizzo out of Wrigley. Traded alongside right-hander Trevor Williams, Baez went to the Mets in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. For the next 24 hours, there were serious questions about whether a trade for Bryant would ultimately come together, but in a buzzer-beating deal, Bryant was shipped to the Giants in exchange for 21-year-old outfielder Alexander Canario and 24-year-old righty Caleb Kilian.

You can perhaps call the inclusion of Baez cheating a little bit for the purposes of this series, because Williams’ inclusion meant it wasn’t *technically* a rental. The Mets acquired two months of control over Baez and a year-plus of Williams in this swap. That extra year of control over Williams surely factored into the decision to part with Crow-Armstrong to an extent, but this was a trade about acquiring Baez first and foremost. Baez caught fire down the stretch for the Mets, too, posting a huge .299/.371/.515 slash in 186 plate appearances. The Mets still missed postseason, however, and the trade surely stings when looking at what’s become of the player they surrendered.

Fast forward less than two years, and “PCA” is regarded as one of the sport’s top outfield prospects. He’s ranked within the top-30 overall prospects in the sport on the most recent lists Baseball America, MLB.com, FanGraphs and Keith Law of The Athletic. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has the “low” ranking on Crow-Armstrong… at No. 39 in the game. Regarded as plus-plus defender in center field with plus speed, Crow-Armstrong has opened the season with a .278/.345/.513 showing in Double-A (131 wRC+). He’s knocked eight homers, seven doubles and three of triples while going 13-for-17 in steals.

Obviously, the Cubs haven’t yet gotten any big league value out of Crow-Armstrong, but it’s rare for a team to acquire a prospect in exchange for a rental and see him almost immediately ascend to the point that he’s regarded as one of the top 15 to 30 prospects in all of baseball. If the Cubs wanted to do so — they surely don’t, to be clear — they could use Crow-Armstrong as a headline piece to acquire just about any controllable veteran who hits the market this summer or next offseason. The likelier path for PCA is that he’ll be given every opportunity to become a franchise center fielder for a still-retooling Cubs club.

There’s no nitpicking with the other two swaps in this three-for-one entry. Rizzo and Bryant were shipped out as two-month mercenaries in exchange for a quartet of prospects, although Rizzo took to the Bronx quite nicely and is now locked in as a Yankee through the 2024 season. There was plenty for the Yankees to like, as Rizzo hit .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+) down the stretch, swatting eight homers and seven postseason doubles before tacking on another dinger in that year’s Wild Card loss to the Red Sox. In parts of three seasons as a Yankee, Rizzo is a .245/.344/.468 hitter with 51 home runs.

I doubt the Yankees regret making this swap, but it’s worked out nicely for the Cubs as well. Alcantara, now 20 years old, isn’t as highly regarded as Crow-Armstrong, but he entered the season ranked No. 91 on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings. He’s dropped off that list after a slow start in High-A (.250/.281/.389), but he still sits at No. 75 at FanGraphs and is generally a very well regarded prospect.

It’s worth bearing in mind that those pedestrian High-A numbers have been posted against competition that is, on average, nearly two and a half years older than Alcantara. The towering 6’6″ toolbox is also just a season removed from a much heartier .273/.360/.451 showing in Class-A, where he was nearly two years younger than the league’s average player. He’s a ways off, but like Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara has significantly elevated his stock since that 2021 trade. If the Cubs were so inclined, he too could be a significant piece in any potential deadline trade for controllable big league help. That’s not likely to happen — granted, it’s a bit more plausible with Alcantara than with Crow-Armstrong — but Alcantara has become a reasonably high-profile prospect.

That’s not the case with the now-26-year-old Vizcaino, though the circumstances surrounding his departure from baseball remain unclear. The Cubs placed Vizcaino on the restricted list in 2022  after he failed to report to spring training. He spent the entire year on the restricted list. The Cubs non-tendered him last offseason, and he didn’t sign with another team. Details surrounding Vizcaino’s abrupt departure from the game are basically nonexistent. The obvious hope is that he’s happy and healthy wherever he’s at, but it’s a disappointing outcome for the Cubs.

As for the third and final chapter of this deadline trio, Bryant proved an important pickup for the Giants. True, San Francisco would’ve made the postseason regardless, evidenced by their MLB-best 107 wins that season, but they edged out the division-rival Dodgers for that NL West crown by a margin of just one game. Bryant’s solid .262/.344/.444 slash may not have been in line with his peak form, but he contributed a meaningful presence in the Giants’ lineup down the stretch. They’d go on to fall to those same Dodgers in the National League Division Series, but not through any fault of Bryant’s. He delivered an 8-for-17 performance in the NLDS, adding a homer and a walk with only three strikeouts in 18 total trips to the plate.

Unlike with the other two trades, Cubs fans have at least gotten a look at one element of this return, although the now-26-year-old Kilian’s big league work to date hasn’t been pretty. The 6’4″ righty is still widely regarded as one of the organization’s best pitching prospects, but he’s been tagged for 20 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings through a pair of very limited auditions. He’s pitched 148 Triple-A innings as a starter over the past two seasons, logging a 4.32 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate against an 11.1% walk rate.

Command wasn’t an issue for him prior to reaching Triple-A, but he struggled with walks last year. It’s encouraging that he’s walked just 6.8% of his opponents over his past seven Triple-A starts, pitching to a 3.09 ERA along the way, but Kilian has also plunked six hitters in that time so he’s not out of the woods with his shaky location just yet. He’s in the mix to come up and make some starts this year still, and depending on how he fares, Kilian could be a candidate for a rotation spot either later this season or in 2024.

As for Canario, he finished second among all minor leaguers with 37 home runs in 2022 and hit .252/.343/.556 across High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. He added 23 steals (in 26 tries) and walked at an 11% clip, though his 27.5% strikeout rate was more concerning. Baseball America calls him a potential low-average slugger with plenty of walks, above-average speed and above-average defense in right field. He hasn’t yet gotten a chance to build on last year’s breakout, as he dislocated his shoulder while playing in the Dominican Winter League.

We’re just shy of two years removed from the Cubs’ deadline fire sale, and while it’s still early to grade the overall strength of their return, things are looking promising. To trade three rental players and come away with a pair of top-100 prospects — including one who’s widely ranked in the top 25 — as well as a near-MLB starting pitcher and a strikeout-prone but prodigious slugging outfielder with power, speed and defensive upside is objectively impressive.

On the one hand, it’s a testament to the caliber of the players the Cubs were trading, but not all trades of star players result in this type of return. The Orioles have still barely gotten anything from the Manny Machado trade nearly five years after its completion. The Rangers’ trade of Darvish to the Dodgers netted them one immediate top prospect, but two years after the deal that prospect (Willie Calhoun) was already looking like a questionable big leaguer.

The tail-end of the development phase for the prospects acquired here — particularly Crow-Armstrong — will define this series of trades. But four of the five prospects acquired in this slate of trades have enhanced their stock since joining the Cubs, who now have a handful of near-MLB-ready talent and/or trade chips to show for parting with a trio of popular veterans. The 2021 trade deadline was a dark few days for Cubs fans, but there’s a good chance it’ll wind up leading to some brighter times ahead.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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