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Archives for July 2023

Latest On Blake Snell, Josh Hader

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The Padres are having a disappointing season, having stayed outside the postseason picture for much of the time. Nonetheless, there have been several signs to suggest they have no intention of selling before the upcoming deadline. Earlier this month, owner Peter Seidler said the club wasn’t “going to reverse course” and more recent reporting said that suitors for rental lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader were being turned away. Today, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that several rival clubs think the Padres will pivot and sell both of those southpaws. That potentially indicates a new approach, though Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club had interest in Lucas Giolito before he was traded to the Angels, indicating the Friars still view themselves as buyers.

Whether the Padres change their mind and decide to sell or not will be a fascinating element to watch between now and the August 1 deadline. Their 49-54 record has them 6.5 games out of a playoff spot, with them needing to leapfrog at least four teams to get into postseason position. FanGraphs gives them a 28.2% chance of doing so, though Baseball Prospectus is far more bullish at 56%.

The club’s decision makers have seemingly held firm in their belief in the squad, though the move to the seller lane is surely tempting. The expanded playoffs and some weak divisions have seemingly created a seller’s market, with those clubs that have pieces to move in a position to do well. The White Sox seemed to have secured themselves a strong return for Giolito and Reynaldo López, with Edgar Quero and Ky Bush being previously considered two of the Angels’ top prospects. The Cubs are still deciding on their trade deadline plan, as their recent hot streak could lead to Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman coming off the table, giving further leverage to those who are selling.

If the Padres were to make Snell and Hader available, they could surely bring in quite a haul for their farm system, which could help them reload for the 2024 campaign. Snell is a former Cy Young winner and he’s having an excellent season, with a 2.61 ERA through 21 starts. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the league for a while now and has a miniscule 0.95 ERA this year. Both are impending free agents, making them logical trade chips on a selling team.

Though considering selling is likely a tough pill to swallow for the Padres, given how much they’ve already committed to this year’s club. They have run up the highest payroll in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their $277MM luxury tax calculation from Roster Resource puts them over the $273MM third line of penalization, lining them up to see their top 2024 draft pick pushed back by 10 spots.

They have already put a lot on the line and maybe they don’t want to sink their chances further by trading pieces like Hader and Snell. They could hold on and hope for a late surge, with still a chance to recoup a draft pick when each is given and inevitably declines a qualifying offer. But even that consolation prize will be lessened by their spending, since luxury tax payors have their compensation picks moved from just before the third round to just after the fourth.

If the Padres were to make either Snell or Hader or both available, they would undoubtedly have massive interest around the league. Just about every contender can use some more pitching and those two are both elite. Doing so could have the added bonus of allowing the Padres to dip below the third CBT tier and prevent next year’s top draft pick from moving. However, they may not have much appetite for that, despite their precarious position. Perhaps some more poor results in the coming days will change the calculus, though that remains to be seen. The Padres are off today but host the Rangers for three starting tomorrow before heading to Colorado on Monday. The trade deadline is Tuesday, August 1.

Marlins Have Shown Interest In Tim Anderson

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The Marlins are among the teams looking into White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The two-time All-Star is in the midst of a down season but could be viewed by some clubs as a buy-low, change of scenery candidate.

That’d be the hope in Miami, where the team’s in-house options at shortstop have also underwhelmed. Marlins shortstops are hitting .258/.301/.335 on the season, with Joey Wendle, Jon Berti, Garrett Hampson and Jacob Amaya all having appeared at the position. Anderson’s .245/.285/.285 line is even worse than that, though he’s hitting .378/.440/.422 since the All-Star Game and .300/.345/.350 overall this month. Beyond that, Anderson has a lengthy track record of excellence at the plate; from 2019-22, he batted .318/.347/.473, leading all qualified hitters in batting average during that time.

Anderson would be a pricey addition by the Marlins’ standards. He’s being paid $12.5MM this season and has a $14MM club option for the 2024 campaign (though a $1MM buyout makes it a net $13MM decision for the team). He’s still owed about $4.5MM of this year’s salary between now and season’s end, plus at least the $1MM option buyout.

Looking ahead to the 2024 season, Miami only has about $38MM on the books — assuming slugger Jorge Soler opts out of the remaining one year and $9MM on his contract. That’s before they pick up a $3.5MM option on Berti and before considering raises for notable arbitration-eligible players. Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Tanner Scott, Trevor Rogers and A.J. Puk are among Miami’s arb-eligibles; Arraez, Scott and Luzardo, in particular, will be due notable raises from their respective $6.1MM, $2.825MM and $2.45MM salaries for the 2023 season. Penciling in a $14MM salary for Anderson from the jump would put Miami on track to run a $100MM+ payroll for just the third time in franchise history.

At this stage it’s far from a given that Anderson will end up in Miami — or even that he’ll change hands at all. The White Sox aren’t looking to tear the roster down and embark on another lengthy rebuild but rather are looking to retool to take another shot at contending in 2024. Anderson could well be a part of that, and a big second half would quickly restore the notion that his option is an easy call to exercise. As it stands, it’s a far closer call than anyone would’ve reasonably expected heading into the year.

That said, Chicago’s top prospect, 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, has ripped through minor league pitching since returning from a monthslong stay on the injured list. Montgomery has scarcely played above the High-A level but figures to see ample time in Double-A later this summer. It’s possible he could be ready for a big league look at some point in 2024, and the Sox could always trade Anderson and then sign/acquire a low-cost veteran to bridge the gap to Montgomery this offseason.

The White Sox already traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels last night, and as of earlier this month they were reportedly willing to entertain offers on anyone other than the quartet of Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Vaughn. The Marlins, meanwhile, got into the trade game yesterday as well when they swapped Dylan Floro for Jorge Lopez in an exchange of struggling relievers.

Cardinals Release Ryan Tepera

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The Cardinals have released right-hander Ryan Tepera, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment last week and would have had the right to reject an outright assignment, making this a fairly expected development.

Tepera, 35, has a long track record of being an effective reliever. He came into this year with a career earned run average of 3.50 over 361 appearances, striking out 24.5% of opponents while walking 8.8% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 43.5% clip. That included the first season of a two-year, $14MM deal he signed with the Angels prior to 2022.

But it’s been a trying season for him here in 2023. He posted a 7.27 ERA through his first 10 appearances with the Angels this year, leading to him getting designated for assignment and then released. He secured a minor league deal with the Rangers and tossed eight scoreless innings in Triple-A, striking out 37.9% of batters faced at that level. He was able to opt out of that deal when the Rangers wouldn’t give him a roster spot, but he got one with the Cardinals. Unfortunately, they bounced him off after just two appearances when Tyler O’Neill came off the injured list.

Tepera will now be free to sign with any club. The Angels are still on the hook for what’s left of his contract, meaning any other team could sign him and pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Halos owe. With the trade deadline a few days away, plenty of clubs will be trading away relievers and likely opening up new jobs. With Tepera’s track record and minimal acquisition cost, it’s possible some club looks to plug him in as a veteran presence.

Eduardo Rodriguez Drawing Widespread Trade Interest

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With the trade deadline now just a few days away, Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez is drawing plenty of trade interest. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that scouts from several rival clubs having been keeping an eye on him, with the Rangers, Rays, Reds, Phillies and Diamondbacks among those keeping tabs.

It’s unsurprising that Rodriguez, 30, is garnering attention around the league. He’s been a solid major league starter for many years and is having arguably his best season to date. Coming into this year, he had thrown 947 2/3 innings with a 4.15 earned run average, striking out 23.9% of batters faced while walking 8.1% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 41.2% clip. Here in 2023, he has a 2.95 ERA, nudging his strikeout rate to 25.9% and lowering his walk rate to 6%, that latter number being a career best by a full point.

Those numbers would fit great in just about every rotation around the league. What makes his situation unique is his contract. He’s not a rental in a strict sense but will be treated similarly to one. The Tigers signed him to a five-year, $77MM deal going into 2022, but that deal gave him the ability to opt out after the second year. That opt-out opportunity is now just a few months away, when he will have to decide between hanging onto the three years and $49MM left on his contract versus returning to the open market.

The last time he was a free agent, he was coming off a season in which he had a 4.74 ERA and had rejected a qualifying offer. This time, it seems like he will have the ability to return to free agency with a stronger platform year and no QO attached, since players aren’t allowed to receive more than one in their careers. He will be two years older and the underlying numbers of his 2021 season were still strong, but all the factors taken into consideration would seem to point to him having a strong shot of getting past that $49MM guarantee in free agency. The most recent offseason saw mid-rotation pitchers like Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon get between $63MM and $72MM, with Rodriguez having an argument for being in that range as well.

With that being the case, it makes sense for the Tigers to consider moving him for talent that can help them in future seasons. Their record is currently 46-55, which only puts them 6.5 games off the lead in the weak AL Central, but FanGraphs only gives them a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs with Baseball Prospectus at 0.3%.

The tricky thing is that, unlike other rental players, there’s more downside for the acquiring club. Although Rodriguez is trending towards opting out, there’s a chance he could experience a downturn in results or suffer an injury that causes him to take the bird in the hand. That’s something that other clubs would have to take into consideration when discussing deals, and it’s possible the Tigers get a lesser return than if Rodriguez were simply in the final year of his contract. The injury question mark is always a factor with pitchers and certainly with Rodriguez, who has only once topped 160 innings in a season.

Complications aside, each of the listed clubs would surely love to have Rodriguez in their rotation for the stretch run. The Rangers have lost Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi to season-ending injuries, which has put a couple of dents in their depth. Dane Dunning has stepped up and has an ERA of 3.18 this year, but a 15.4% strikeout rate that casts some doubt on its sustainability. Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney are each having lackluster seasons as well, with their respective ERAs hovering just under 5.00. They are still leading the AL West but the Astros are only two games back, with the Angels also aggressively making a push. They’ve already been connected to starters, with reported interest in Lance Lynn of the White Sox.

The Rays have some strong elements to their rotation with Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley and Zach Eflin in four spots, but Eflin has dealt with persistent knee issues in his career and underwent an MRI on his left knee yesterday. It’s unclear if that will be a serious problem, but they are already without Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for the rest of the season, with Josh Fleming on the 60-day IL as well. Like the Rangers, they’ve also been connected to Lynn in their pursuit of more starting pitching. They have slipped behind Baltimore in the East but still hold the top Wild Card spot in the American League.

The Reds have known for some time to be in the market for pitching, which makes plenty of sense. They were hoping to have their rotation fronted by Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo but both have been on the IL for a while now with at least a few more weeks until their expected returns. Other starters like Justin Dunn and Connor Overton are on the IL with them. Luke Weaver is still clinging to a rotation spot despite his 7.20 ERA on the year, leaving plenty of room for an upgrade. They are currently holding a Wild Card spot and are just a game and a half behind the Brewers in the Central division.

The Phillies have a solid group of five in Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, but their depth has been weakened by the Tommy John surgery of Andrew Painter and the struggles of Bailey Falter. The only member of their current rotation than can be optioned is Sanchez, who has a 2.98 ERA but a 4.06 FIP. But perhaps someone could wind up in the bullpen or they simply use a six-man rotation for a while. They currently hold one of the Wild Card spots in the tight NL race.

The Diamondbacks have a top-heavy rotation with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly at the front. Brandon Pfaadt was one of the top pitching prospects in the league coming into the year but has an 8.81 ERA through his first seven starts. Tommy Henry has a 4.01 ERA but with uninspiring peripherals and a 5.14 FIP. Ryne Nelson’s ERA is is 4.97. General manager Mike Hazen has already admitted the club will pursue pitching upgrades. It remains to be seen how aggressive they will be since they’ve been struggling lately, but they are still just half a game out of the playoff picture.

Brewers Rumors: Middle Infield, Defense, Winker, Caratini

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The Brewers took two of three from the Reds this week, pushing their lead over Cincinnati in the NL Central to a game and a half. As they try to hang onto their spot atop the division, Milwaukee looks to add in the next five days.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted earlier this week the Brew Crew were among the clubs involved in the middle infield market. That’s presumably a reflection of the middling production they’ve gotten out of the keystone. At shortstop, Willy Adames is having a down offensive year, but he’s an excellent defender and clubhouse leader. It’s hard to imagine the Brewers are considering curtailing his playing time.

That might not be the case on the other side of the bag. Milwaukee second basemen have hit .222/.300/.311 on the season. They’re 21st in on-base percentage and above only the Mariners and White Sox in slugging output.

The bulk of those reps have fallen to rookie Brice Turang. The former top prospect hasn’t hit much in his first look at big league arms. Through 259 plate appearances, he owns a meager .204/.271/.315 line with four home runs. Public defensive metrics have pegged him as a plus with the glove; he’s eight runs above average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and two runs above par, per Statcast.

Adding at the keystone would be a means to perhaps inject some life into a mediocre lineup. The Brewers rank 25th in MLB in runs despite playing home games in the rather hitter-friendly American Family Field. Luis Urías, who opened the season at third base and has also seen some second base action, hit just .145/.299/.236 and has spent the past month in Triple-A.

Nevertheless, general manager Matt Arnold struck a balanced tone in a chat with Adam McCalvy of MLB.com before yesterday’s game. Arnold noted the front office didn’t want to deal too much of a hit to the team’s run prevention-first mentality. “I think we want to try to help this team, but we know we’re built around pitching and defense. Anytime you want to add a quote-unquote bat, sometimes those guys aren’t very good defenders,” he told McCalvy. Arnold added the club was considering ways to upgrade but noted they were to be responsible in not parting with too much young talent.

That’s a consideration every team looking for short-term help will have to weigh, of course. It’d register as a surprise if the Brewers didn’t add to the lineup in some capacity, even if it’s more of a complementary pickup than an impact bat. The Brewers had gotten very little out of the main first base/designated hitter tandem of Rowdy Tellez and Jesse Winker. Tellez has been out since July 5 with a forearm issue. The latter just joined him on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 25, because of back spasms.

Milwaukee has relied upon Owen Miller as its top first baseman of late. He’s probably better suited for a multi-positional infield role off the bench. The Brewers have Tyrone Taylor (hitting .159/.176/.261 in 34 games) and Abraham Toro as other options, while longtime minor leaguer Andruw Monasterio has stepped into the primary third base role with Brian Anderson out of action. Monasterio has performed well over 117 trips to the dish as a 26-year-old rookie.

There are a few different areas in which Milwaukee could look for offensive help. A right side infielder would be the most straightforward, though McCalvy notes the Brew Crew are open to upgrading the outfield as well. Rookies Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer are taking everyday roles alongside Christian Yelich. The latter could see more DH reps if the Brewers added on the grass.

While most of the focus for Milwaukee will be on which players they acquire, there’s a possibility of dealing off the MLB roster at a position of surplus. Robert Murray of FanSided wrote last night that backup catcher Víctor Caratini is a potential trade candidate. That’d ostensibly be about cashing him in for immediate MLB depth in another area.

Caratini, 30 next month, is having a nice season in a limited role. He owns a .248/.338/.372 line with five homers through 148 plate appearances. Statcast has given him slightly above-average marks for his pitch framing and blocking. It’s not the kind of offense that’d be ideal in an extended first base or DH capacity but is strong for a #2 catcher. With William Contreras behind the dish, there’s no path for Caratini to get more consistent reps there barring injury.

The switch-hitting backstop is playing this season on a modest $2.8MM arbitration salary. He’ll be a free agent for the first time at year’s end. Contreras is entrenched as the long-term catcher, so Caratini could look for a larger role elsewhere once he hits the open market.

Perhaps another team is willing to give him more consistent reps down the stretch. There aren’t many apparent catching trade candidates this summer. Most productive backstops are already on contenders and the upcoming free agent class at the position is thin. Caratini would only appeal to other clubs with 2023 postseason aspirations — there’s little reason to trade for a rental otherwise — but teams like the Yankees, Marlins or Diamondbacks could look for short-term help behind the plate.

Angels Designate Jared Walsh For Assignment

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The Angels announced Thursday that they’ve designated first baseman/outfielder Jared Walsh for assignment and transferred righty Ben Joyce to the 60-day injured list. That pair of transactions opens space on the roster for newly acquired right-handers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. Giolito will make his team debut tomorrow against Toronto, tweets Sam Blum of The Athletic. Lopez is with the Angels in Detroit and will be available out of the bullpen during today’s doubleheader, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

Walsh broke out with a hefty .280/.331/.531 slash and 38 home runs in 176 games from 2020-21, cementing his place on the Angels’ roster in the process. However, the now-29-year-old late bloomer has seen his production plummet in the two seasons since, due largely to alarming health issues. Walsh underwent thoracic outlet surgery last summer, ending his season after 118 games of .215/.269/.374 output at the plate.

The 2023 season has been even more concerning. Walsh was placed on the injured list early in the season due to persistent headaches and insomnia. Walsh detailed his struggles in an interview with Blum earlier in the season: “It’s been hell. Not knowing what’s going on, not understanding what’s happening with my body….And not being able to get answers, not being able to figure out why I can’t do basic tasks. It’s been pretty concerning for me.”

Walsh was thankfully at least able to return to the field, but the results have been nowhere near his peak levels. In 78 big league plate appearances, he’s batted just .119/.244/.224 while striking out in a third of his plate appearances. He’s batted .231/.394/.410 in 99 plate appearances since being optioned to Triple-A, but he’s still fanned in 30.3% of those trips to the plate.

The health troubles that have plagued Walsh are both frightening and immensely unfortunate. There’s little doubt they’ve derailed what looked to be a burgeoning big league career, and he’ll now either be traded, placed on waivers or released. He’s being paid $2.65MM this season and owed about $955K between now and season’s end.

Given the alarming nature of his health troubles and this season’s struggles, it’s far from certain that another club would trade for Walsh or place a claim if he lands on outright waivers. If Walsh clears waivers, he has enough service time to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, but doing so would mean forfeiting the remainder of that salary. As such, he’d likely accept an outright assignment to return to Triple-A Salt Lake.

White Sox Rumors: Cease, Bummer, Lynn, Kelly

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The White Sox’ long-expected status as deadline sellers was cemented last night when they traded impending free agents Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels in exchange for prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush. Further deals for the South Siders between now and Tuesday’s deadline are a certainty, but a broad-reaching teardown still appears unlikely. Teams who have inquired on the availability of righty Dylan Cease, who’s controllable through the 2025 season, have repeatedly been turned away, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Cease, last year’s Cy Young runner-up, has been one of the most speculated-upon trade candidates in baseball this season, even as it’s continued to seem unlikely he’s moved. The White Sox are intent on reloading and taking another run at contending in 2024, making it far less likely that they’d deal a controllable top-of-the-rotation arm of Cease’s caliber.

The 27-year-old Cease hasn’t pitched as well in 2023 as he did in 2022. He’s sporting a solid 4.04 ERA with an excellent 28% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate through 113 2/3 frames so far this season. He’s been particularly effective over his past nine starts, however, firing 51 innings of 3.00 ERA ball while punching out one-third of his opponents and recording an improved 8.5% walk rate. Cease is earning an affordable $5.7MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility and will be due a raise on that salary next season.

Cease isn’t the only controllable arm drawing interest on Chicago’s roster. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that several contenders have expressed interest in lefty reliever Aaron Bummer despite a disastrous 6.56 ERA. Bummer’s season got out to an awful start, but he’s logged a 4.50 ERA in 24 innings dating back to May 12; five of the dozen earned runs he’s yielded in that time came in one meltdown on July 6.

Looking deeper into Bummer’s season, he’s fanned an impressive 28.3% of his opponents and kept the ball on the ground at a hefty 54.3% clip. The 29-year-old has been plagued by a .347 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 48.1% strand rate this year, both of which figure to trend back toward his career averages of .300 and 69.5%. Bummer hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season, which isn’t sustainable, but the overall package of a hard-throwing lefty who misses bats and piles up grounders while pitching on an affordable contract understandably has appeal for contending clubs. Bummer is playing out the fourth season of a five-year, $16MM contract but can be controlled another three seasons: a $5.5MM salary in 2024 plus a pair of club options valued at $7.25MM and $7.5MM in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

As with Cease, Bummer can be a part of the White Sox’ efforts to contend both in 2024 and 2025, so there’s no guarantee he’s moved. However, reliever performance is more volatile, evidenced by Bummer’s current ERA after logging a 2.59 mark in 160 innings from 2019-22. If the Sox can get some near-MLB help that could more affordably contribute to the 2024 roster, it’s feasible they’d be open to the possibility.

At some point in the next few days, the Sox will quite likely move right-handers Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Keynan Middleton, all of whom can become free agent at season’s end (though Lynn and Kelly have 2024 options on their contracts). The Rays and Dodgers were both reported to be in talks on Lynn yesterday, and the Dodgers were tied to Kelly.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds further fuel to those rumors, writing this morning that the Rangers and White Sox discussed a trade that would bring both Lynn and Kelly to Texas yesterday. The talks didn’t gain enough traction to bring about a deal, but Texas’ interest in both pitchers highlights the number of balls the Sox have in the air and the number of paths they could take as they look to retool in the coming days.

The Opener: Trades, Rays, Cubs

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On the heels of trade season kicking into high gear last night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Will more deals be swung today?

We saw trade season kick off in earnest yesterday as the Marlins and Twins swapped right-handers Dylan Floro and Jorge Lopez, the Dodgers and Guardians swapped righty Noah Syndergaard and infielder Amed Rosario, and the Angels clearly declared themselves buyers by taking Shohei Ohtani off the market just hours before swinging a deal for right-handers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez in the biggest trade of the year so far. With just five days until the trade deadline on Aug. 1, more deals could be announced as soon as today. Recent reports have indicated that infielder Jeimer Candelario is on the Angels’ radar. The White Sox were discussing righty Lance Lynn with multiple clubs yesterday and seem certain to deal him after the Giolito/Lopez swap. A reunion between the Dodgers and right-hander Joe Kelly has also been discussed.

2. Eflin MRI:

Rays righty Zach Eflin exited yesterday’s start after just four innings and went for an immediate MRI on his left knee after experiencing discomfort during a rocky outing (five runs in those four frames). Eflin, who inked a three-year deal worth $40MM in Tampa Bay over the winter, entered yesterday’s outing with a 3.36 ERA on the season and has been one of the team’s most consistent arms. However, he has chronic knee issues that have plagued him dating back to his amateur days. The right-hander had surgery on both knees in 2016 and underwent a second right knee procedure in 2021.

The Rays were already on the lookout for rotation help after losing Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for the season. Any absence for Eflin would only accelerate their bid to acquire starting pitching. They were among the teams talking to the White Sox about Lynn as recently as yesterday, and they’ve previously been linked to Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, among others. The Rays are off today, so an update on Eflin isn’t a guarantee, but his status will be pivotal with regard to their level of aggression as the deadline looms.

3. Cubs’ last stand?

Despite being considered a likely seller by much of the baseball world for much of the season to this point, the Cubs are reportedly still evaluating their approach to the trade deadline on August 1. Muddying the waters on the decision for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is the club’s play in recent weeks, as the Cubs have won seven of their last eight, making them 8-4 since the All Star break and 12-9 in July. In the event the club decides to sell, Chicago has some of the most interesting rentals on the market this July in right-hander Marcus Stroman and center fielder Cody Bellinger.

The Cubs are six games back of the division lead and 4.5 games back of a crowded NL Wild Card race. That being said, they also sport the NL Central’s only positive run differential and could put themselves back over .500 for the first time since May with a series win in St. Louis this weekend. Lefty Justin Steele takes the mound for the club against tonight opposite Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas for the first game of a four-game set that will take the clubs into deadline day, when Hoyer and his front office will have to make a decision on the Cubs’ course of action.

Angels Acquire Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez

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The Angels are pushing the chips in. The Halos swung a late-night trade for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from the White Sox, the teams announced. Prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush are going back to Chicago.

Los Angeles declared themselves buyers this evening when they formally took Shohei Ohtani off the trade market. Once they committed to making a push in Ohtani’s final season of club control, there was little reason not to act boldly. They’ve done just that, surrendering two of their top prospects for the top rental starter available and a relief upgrade.

Ironically, Giolito and López both landed with the White Sox in the same trade nearly seven years ago. Both had debuted with the Nationals in 2016 before being included in the Adam Eaton package during that year’s Winter Meetings. They’ve spent the past six-plus seasons on Chicago’s South Side.

Giolito has developed into the more valuable of the duo. After a disastrous 2018 season, the Southern California native blossomed into an upper mid-rotation starter. He has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five years, including a 3.79 mark through 121 frames this season.

He has backed up that solid run prevention with above-average peripherals. Giolito is striking out 25.8% of opponents against an 8.3% walk rate. He’s generating swinging strikes on 11.9% of his offerings. It’s a third consecutive season in which he’s been above-average across the board.

Giolito hasn’t quite developed into the ace it seemed he might become when he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting in 2019-20. His average fastball speed is down a tick from those peak seasons, and he’s lost a few whiffs on each of his offerings. Still, the 29-year-old is a clear playoff caliber starter. He averages just under six innings per start while holding opponents to a .232/.301/.430 batting line. Giolito is effective against hitters of either handedness and has essentially avoided any major injuries in his MLB career.

That kind of durability and effectiveness should be a major boost to a Halos’ rotation that entered play Wednesday ranked 20th in the majors in ERA. Ohtani is the one pitcher allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine on the season. Reid Detmers has a 4.38 ERA but a strikeout rate north of 29% that suggests he fits well in the middle of a rotation. Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Canning have been fine back-end arms. Tyler Anderson has underperformed in the first season of a three-year deal, working to a 5.18 ERA. He slots sixth in the Halos’ six-man starting staff, while Giolito’s addition should firmly push Jaime Barria into long relief if the rest of the group stays healthy.

Barria has been more effective out of the bullpen than when pressed into rotation work. Giolito’s acquisition indirectly upgrades the relief corps in that regard, while the addition of López helps the bullpen in a more straightforward way.

The 29-year-old righty moved to relief for good by the start of the 2022 season. He was excellent in that role last year, pitching to a 2.76 ERA across 65 1/3 frames. It has been more of a mixed bag in 2023. López carries a 4.29 ERA in 42 innings. His walks have jumped from a minuscule 4.3% clip last year to a concerning 12.4% rate.

However, the uptick in free passes has been paired with a jump in whiffs. López has punched out a career-best 29.2% of batters faced. He’s picking up swinging strikes on 13.4% of his offerings while averaging 98.3 MPH on his heater and 87.9 MPH on the slider. López is a high-octane arm to pair with Matt Moore as setup options in front of closer Carlos Estévez. The Halos could look for additional ways of bolstering the middle innings mix between now and the August 1 trade deadline.

Both Giolito and López are firmly win-now pieces. Each is an impending free agent. Giolito is arguably the top non-Ohtani starter who’ll hit the open market. He’s on his way to exceeding nine figures. That always made it likely the White Sox — whose franchise-record expenditure is the $75MM Andrew Benintendi pact — would not re-sign him.

A midseason deal, while not unexpected, is a nice boost to Giolito’s eventual earning power. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a qualifying offer. Giolito would obviously have received one had the Sox retained him past the deadline, but he’ll now hit the open market without a signing team needing to forfeit draft capital.

The more immediate benefit, of course, is that both pitchers will get a chance to compete for a postseason spot. The Halos are four games out in the Wild Card race and seven back in the AL West. They’re clearly pushing the chips in for this season and figure to continue to be aggressive in the next few days. Adding corner infield help with Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury on the shelf and Jared Walsh struggling enough to be optioned to Triple-A makes plenty of sense; to that end, the Halos have reportedly been in touch with the Nationals regarding third baseman Jeimer Candelario.

As part of that all-in mentality, the Angels relinquished a pair of their most talented prospects. Quero is one of the game’s top minor league backstops. The switch-hitter reached Double-A by his 20th birthday and is holding his own in a pitcher-friendly setting. Over 317 plate appearances, Quero owns a .245/.385/.332 batting line. He’s only hit three home runs but is walking at a massive 17% clip while striking out just 16.7% of the time.

That kind of plate discipline is exceptionally rare for a hitter so young. The Cuban-born backstop is the sport’s #61 overall prospect at FanGraphs and 85th at Baseball America. Scouting reports predictably rave about his advanced offensive skills and suggest he has a good chance to be a regular in the long term.

The Halos already have a potential catcher of the future in Logan O’Hoppe. Acquired from the Phillies last summer, O’Hoppe has been limited to 21 big league contests because of a labrum tear in his shoulder. He’s controllable for five seasons beyond this one, though, perhaps making Quero a little more expendable to the organization.

Chicago had no such long-term answer behind the dish. Yasmani Grandal is headed to free agency on the heels of a fine but unexceptional year. It’s probably unreasonable to expect Quero to immediately succeed Grandal as the #1 backstop next season, but it doesn’t seem out of the question he could reach the majors at some point in 2024. That upper minors proximity is surely appealing to a Chicago team reloading for next year.

Bush, a 23-year-old southpaw, was also at Double-A. A second-round pick out of St. Mary’s in 2021, he ranked ninth among Angels’ prospects in Eric Longenhagen’s recent organizational rankings at FanGraphs. Both Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (on Twitter) suggest the 6’6″ hurler has a chance to stick as a starter and praise his slider, though Longenhagen raises concerns about his low-90s fastball. Bush has been a little homer-prone in his first six Double-A starts but is striking out nearly 30% of opponents there.

It’s a strong return for a pair of impending free agents, with Quero the clear headliner. Yet it’s understandable the Angels would part with those players (particularly with O’Hoppe in the fold) to make a push this season. Their aggressiveness extends beyond the prospect capital, as the trade officially pushed them into luxury tax territory.

The Halos were right around the $233MM competitive balance tax threshold before the move. They’re taking on what remains of the respective $10.4MM and $3.625MM arbitration salaries for Giolito and López. That’s around $3.75MM on Giolito and $1.31MM on López. That’ll push their estimated CBT figure to around $238MM pending future additions.

It’s clear owner Arte Moreno will sign off on paying the tax for the first time. The financial penalties of doing so are rather minimal. As a first-time payor, they’ll pay a 20% tax on expenditures between $233MM and $253MM. The tax money they’re taking on with today’s trade is just over $1MM, a marginal amount in comparison to the team’s overall spending.

More notably, surpassing the CBT reduces the draft compensation they’d receive if they lose a qualified free agent. Teams that pay the luxury tax receive a compensation pick after the fourth round if a player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere. Clubs that stay below the threshold get a compensatory choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round.

Ohtani will obviously reject a QO. If the Angels don’t re-sign him, going past the CBT means they’re moving the draft compensation back a couple rounds. That’s a risk worth taking to maximize the chances of getting to the playoffs in Ohtani’s final season of arbitration. The Angels are all-in, and while this’ll probably be their biggest move of deadline season, there’s no reason to think it’s their last.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Angels and White Sox were finalizing a trade of Giolito and López for Quero and Bush.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Angels, Nationals Have Discussed Jeimer Candelario Trade

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The Angels have had talks with the Nationals about third baseman Jeimer Candelario, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Halos just pulled off the biggest trade of deadline season thus far and continue to look for ways to upgrade the roster. It’s unclear whether a deal between the clubs is likely to come together.

Candelario, 29, spent several years as the Tigers’ primary third baseman before struggling through a career-worst season in 2022, when he hit just .217/.272/.361 in 124 games. Detroit non-tendered him rather than giving him a raise in what would’ve been his final year of arbitration eligibility, and the Nationals scooped him up on a one-year, $5MM deal in free agency. The gambit could scarcely have worked out better for the Nats.

In 94 games and 398 plate appearances, Candelario has rebounded with a .257/.338/.486 batting line, swatting 16 homers in addition to 29 doubles and a pair of triples. He’s already swiped five bases, a career-high, and should surpass his career-best mark of 19 home runs before long. The switch-hitting Candelario has never been known for his glovework, but he’s posted positive marks at third base in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (1), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.0) and especially Statcast’s Outs Above Average (6) so far in 2023.

The Halos certainly didn’t foresee themselves in position to be poking around the third base market at any trade deadlines in the near future three years ago, when they signed Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract. At the time, they hoped to be adding a perennial MVP candidate into a lineup that already featured MVP-caliber talents Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Rendon garnered MVP votes each season from 2017-19, including a third-place finish in his final season with the Nats before he became a free agent.

Although he was excellent for the Halos in the shortened 2020 season, things haven’t gone well since. Rendon has played in just 148 games since Opening Day 2021, hitting .235/.338/.364 while battling myriad injuries along the way. He’s currently on the shelf with a shin injury. The Angels have already acquired third base options Mike Moustakas and Eduardo Escobar in earlier summer trades, to say nothing of their signing of Brandon Drury as a free agent this past offseason. They’re not necessarily lacking in options at the hot corner, but Candelario would nonetheless provide an affordable, high-quality bat to slot into the lineup. If Rendon were to come back from the injured list and reclaim the third base job, Candelario could certainly fit into the mix at first base; he’s logged 518 career innings at the position.

The Angels sudden, blockbuster acquisition of Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez from the White Sox has already pushed them north of the luxury tax line, so the remaining $1.8MM that Candelario would add to their luxury ledger isn’t likely to be a major deterrent. They’ve already taken Ohtani off the trade market, and the Giolito/Lopez trade — for their two top prospects — only underscores the notion that owner Arte Moreno and GM Perry Minasian are going for broke in Ohtani’s final year of club control. Whether or not a deal involving Candelario comes together, it seems quite likely that the Angels will be in the market for further upgrades in the lineup. At this point, there’s no sense in holding anything back. They’ve committed to pushing in for a 2023 postseason bid, and there’s no turning back.

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