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The Opener: Dodgers, Injuries, World Series Rematch

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As the month of April approaches its close, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Dodgers roster moves incoming:

The Dodgers are expected to make a handful of roster moves in the near future, with infielder Max Muncy and reliever Brusdar Graterol likely set to come off the paternity list. It’s possible that catcher Will Smith will also be activated from the 7-day concussion IL, but it seems as though he isn’t expected to return to work behind the plate just yet. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) that if J.D. Martinez, who hasn’t played in a few days due to back soreness, requires an IL stint of his own, Smith could be an option at DH while Martinez is on the shelf.  Each of Muncy, Graterol, and Smith will require a corresponding move to clear space on the active roster, though if Martinez does hit in the injured list that would clear one spot.

2. Injuries to watch this weekend:

Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez (neck discomfort) and Giants catcher Joey Bart (groin tightness) have both missed three games due to injury at this point. Given stints on the IL can only be backdated a maximum of three days, it seems likely that each player will be re-evaluated by their club today to determine if they need to make a trip to the IL. Other injury situations to keep an eye on are those of AL MVP Aaron Judge, who left yesterday’s game with right hip discomfort but expects to only be sidelined for a few days, and Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle, who left yesterday’s game with elbow soreness. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including The Athletic’s Dan Hayes), Mahle is day-to-day, but was unsure if Mahle would require an MRI.

3. 2022 World Series rematch series:

The Phillies are headed to Minute Maid Park for a rematch of the 2022 World Series against the world champion Astros, with the series set to kick off tonight at 7:10pm CT. Both teams struggled to open the season, spending most of the month under .500. Both now appear to be finding their footing, with the Astros pulling into a first place tie with the Rangers in the AL West while the Phillies rebounded from a 5-10 record to win seven of their last ten, returning the club to an even record. The teams will match up this weekend in Houston, with left-hander Framber Valdez squaring off against right-hander Aaron Nola to kick the series off tonight at 7:10 CT.

Looking Back At A Rare Trade Miss For The Rays

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Why do teams even bother trading with the Rays? The club has built a reputation as one that wins every deal it makes, a legend that goes back to at least 2014, based on this classic Tweet. Whenever they swing a deal, there are inevitable comments with observers wondering why other clubs even bother getting involved with Tampa when they’re bound to get fleeced.

It’s understandable why that discourse exists as the Rays have shown a knack to turn unheralded players into stars. Looking at the current roster, we find players like Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, Drew Rasmussen and others who seemed to completely alter their trajectory after moving to Tampa. It’s a testament to the organization that they seem to continually get the best out of their players, whether it’s ones they’ve traded for or those they originally drafted or signed.

It’s also what helps them repeatedly field competitive clubs despite rarely spending money. They’ve made the playoffs in eight of the past 15 seasons, including each of the past four, and seem well on their way to get back there again despite playing in the stacked AL East. In the last 20 years, they’ve only once spent enough to get out of the bottom five, per the figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

That being said, no club is perfect. They are run by human beings just like all the others and they make mistakes. Let’s take a look at a deal from December 2019 that looks like a whiff.

This deal has the vague feel of a classic Rays trade, as they often take quality players and flip them for others who are almost as good but cheaper and with more control. If they help the new player become just as good or better than the one they gave up, then it works out as a nice bit of business for a low-spending club.

There’s no doubt Pham was better than Renfroe at that time. In the three years leading up to the deal, he had hit 65 home runs and slashed .284/.381/.475 for a wRC+ of 133. Renfroe’s batting line was .231/.291/.486 for a wRC+ of 102. He actually hit significantly more homers than Pham with 85, but his 7.3% walk rate was well below Pham’s 12.5% clip. He also struck out 28.5% of the time compared to Pham’s 21.7% rate. The defensive edge was debatable, as Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average preferred Renfroe while Ultimate Zone Rating gave the nod to Pham, though a lot of Pham’s work came in the more-demanding position of center field. Pham definitely provided more value on the basepaths, including stealing 65 bases to Renfroe’s 10. His 13.1 wins above replacement tally from FanGraphs in those three years was well ahead of Renfroe’s 4.3.

But turning to the financials, Pham had two years of remaining club control and was projected to make $8.6MM in 2020. Renfroe just qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player, meaning he had four years of control remaining and was projected for a $3.4MM salary. If the Rays could somehow coax some better plate discipline out of Renfroe, they could wind up with a fairly similar player for less money and more control.

Pham went on to struggle in 2020 but bounce back with a serviceable 2021 campaign. Renfroe, however, had a dismal season in 2020. He did make some slight improvements at the plate, walking at a 10.1% clip and striking out at a 26.6% rate, but he hit just .156/.252/.393 for a wRC+ of 78. His .141 batting average on balls in play certainly points to a lot of bad luck, and he’s been better since then, but the Rays decided to move on by designating him for assignment at season’s end.

There’s always risk in taking this path, assuming that the lesser player can simply be changed in a way that they replace the better player, but the Rays also had some insurance. They were getting a young prospect on the rise in Edwards. He was just the Padres’ #21 prospect coming into 2019, per Baseball America, but he hit .322/.375/.396 for a 121 wRC+ between Single-A and High-A that year. He only hit one home run, but he struck out at a tiny 9.6% rate and stole 34 bases. After the deal, BA ranked him the #85 prospect in the entire league.

Unfortunately, he never really developed any more power and the speed proved less game-changing as he moved up the minor league ladder. After the minor leagues were canceled in 2020, he went up to Double-A in 2021. He didn’t hit a single home run in 337 plate appearances over 79 games. His .302/.377/.368 batting line was still above average, translating to a wRC+ 113, but it was a bit of a drop from his breakout.

Last year, he got bumped to Triple-A and managed to hit five home runs in 400 trips to the plate, but the rest of the picture wasn’t as pretty. His 18.8% strikeout rate was still a bit below average, but it was much higher than any season before. His .246/.328/.350 line amounted to a wRC+ of 84 and he only stole seven bases in 11 tries over 93 games. This past offseason, with the Rays facing a roster crunch, they dealt Edwards and JT Chargois to the Marlins for prospects Marcus Johnson and Santiago Suarez. Johnson and Suarez were respectively ranked the club’s #25 and #17 prospects by BA coming into this year. Those youngsters mean the Rays could still salvage something from Edwards indirectly, but it’s surely not the outcome they envisioned when they initially brought him aboard. Neither Johnson nor Suarez has reached even High-A yet, so any forthcoming payday will have to wait.

The best saving grace of the deal from Tampa’s perspective right now is that the player to be named later, Quiroz, had a nice season in 2021 and was flipped to the Cubs for Harold Ramírez. This is more the classic Rays trade that we all know, where a somewhat flawed player seems to find their ceiling in Tampa. Ramírez had cracked BA’s top 100 list back in 2016 while with the Pirates, but later bounced around to Toronto, Miami and Cleveland. By the end of 2021, he had received 818 major league plate appearances but had hit .271/.308/.405 for a wRC+ of 91. For a guy with little speed and subpar defense, that wasn’t terribly exciting.

Cleveland designated Ramírez for assignment after 2021 and then flipped him to the Cubs for cash. At the end of March, the Cubs sent him to the Rays for Quiroz, seeming to indicate he wouldn’t make the team out of spring. Since he was out of options, they couldn’t send him down and at least got Quiroz out of it. The Rays would have to keep Ramírez on the active roster as well, though that hasn’t been a problem as he has mashed since the deal. In 139 games as a Ray, he’s hit .308/.353/.442 for a wRC+ of 132. He still doesn’t walk much and his defense is still subpar, but he’s hard to strike out and hits the ball hard. The Rays can control him through 2025.

From the Padres’ point of view, Pham was just okay in his two seasons there but the real coup was getting Cronenworth. A seventh round draft pick, he was never at the top of any prospect lists while in the minors. He was ranked #18 in the Rays’ system by BA in 2018 and then #15 in the Padres’ system in 2020 after the deal. He then cracked the Opening Day roster in the shortened season, striking out in just 15.6% of his plate appearances that year while hitting .285/.354/.477 for a wRC+ of 126. He hasn’t quite maintained that pace but has continued to be above average, with his career batting line now at .254/.336/.433, translating to a 114 wRC+.

He’s also provided tremendous defensive versatility, bouncing around the infield as needed. He’s mostly played second base but has also spent time at third and shortstop. When the Friars signed Xander Bogaerts to take over at short, they seemed to have little hesitation about moving Ha-Seong Kim to second and Cronenworth over to first. His DRS numbers at short are subpar, but he’s considered average or better at the other spots, while UZR and OAA think he’s average or better everywhere. The club is so enamored with him that they signed him to a seven-year, $80MM extension in the offseason.

In the end, the deal wasn’t a total loss for the Rays, since they were able to flip one of the pieces to get a solid player in Ramírez. But it shows that MLB decision makers don’t necessarily need to block phone calls coming from Tampa. You could get someone like Cronenworth or perhaps Nathaniel Lowe or maybe Willy Adames or even Blake Snell or how about José Alvarado or someone like Joe Ryan?

Rockies Release Jose Urena

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The Rockies have released starter José Ureña, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. That was the anticipated outcome when Colorado designated the right-hander for assignment on Tuesday.

Ureña had been off to a very rough start to the season. Through five outings, he’d tossed 18 1/3 innings of 22-run ball. He walked 14 while recording just nine strikeouts and generating swinging strikes at a career-worst 7.2% clip. He and Ken Waldichuk are tied for the major league lead with nine home runs allowed.

That’s obviously not the caliber of production the Colorado front office had in mind when signing Ureña to a $3.5MM free agent deal last winter. It was a return to Coors Field for the sinkerballer, who spent the final four months of last season in Denver. Ureña posted a 5.14 ERA through 89 1/3 innings last season. While not overwhelming production, it was serviceable enough for a Rockies team that’s light on rotation depth. Ureña hadn’t come close to replicating those numbers through this season’s first month and Colorado moved on rather quickly.

Ureña is still due around $2.5MM in salary through season’s end, plus a $500K buyout on a 2024 club option. No team is going to take that off Colorado’s hands, so it’s a near certainty he’ll go unclaimed on release waivers. At that point, the 31-year-old hurler will be free to explore other opportunities. Any team that carries Ureña on its MLB roster would only owe him the prorated portion of the $720K minimum salary, which would be subtracted from Colorado’s obligations. Given the extent of his early-season struggles, he seems likely to be limited to minor league offers.

There should be some interest around the league in adding him to a Triple-A rotation. Ureña has never posted impressive strikeout or walk rates but he’s consistently kept the ball on the ground at a higher than average clip. He has 813 big league innings over parts of nine seasons, carrying a career 4.92 ERA.

Yankees Notes: Judge, Trivino, Loaisiga

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9:51pm: Judge said postgame he expected to be sidelined for a few days but downplayed any significant concern (Boland link).

9:23pm: AL MVP Aaron Judge left tonight’s game in Texas in the bottom of the fourth inning. The Yankees later informed reporters that Judge was experiencing some discomfort in his right hip (relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Oswaldo Cabrera came off the bench to take over right field.

The club will surely provide more on Judge’s status in the near future. At the moment, there’s nothing to suggest it was more than a precautionary move to keep the star slugger healthy. Judge has been in the starting lineup for all 26 of New York’s games. While he’s not hitting at last year’s superhuman level, the four-time All-Star has a well above-average .261/.352/.511 batting line with six home runs in 108 trips to the plate.

Elsewhere on the Yankee roster, manager Aaron Boone provided reporters with injury updates on a pair of relievers before tonight’s contest. Right-hander Lou Trivino is headed for a second opinion on his injured elbow, tweets Greg Joyce of the New York Post. Trivino hasn’t pitched this season because of an elbow sprain. The Yankees had announced early in Spring Training that he’d be out into May but that timeline was further pushed back when he recently experienced renewed soreness. The 31-year-old met with Yankees’ physician Christopher Ahmad yesterday.

Acquired from the A’s alongside Frankie Montas last summer, Trivino threw 21 2/3 innings of 1.66 ERA ball down the stretch for New York. The former Oakland closer had been quite effective from 2020-21 but was off to a rough first half to the ’22 campaign before righting the ship in the Bronx. He could be a medium to high-leverage arm in the Yankee relief corps if healthy but the mention of a second opinion for an elbow concern raises the possibility of a long-term absence.

Fellow righty Jonathan Loáisiga has been out since the second week of the season with inflammation in his throwing elbow. While it doesn’t seem there’s a ton of long-term concern there, Boone told reporters the 28-year-old was experiencing some soreness after a throwing session yesterday (via Erik Boland of Newsday). The club hasn’t provided many specifics, though it’s possible Loáisiga finds himself a little behind schedule in his rehab process as a result.

Mariners Release Justus Sheffield

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The Mariners are releasing left-hander Justus Sheffield from Triple-A Tacoma, tweets Rainiers’ director of media relations Paul Braverman. The southpaw had already been taken off the 40-man roster over the offseason but had remained in the system after going unclaimed on outright waivers.

Sheffield had been hit very hard through his first 10 outings in Tacoma. He’s allowed 17 runs over 8 1/3 innings, walking 11 batters with only four strikeouts. Given that production, he surely wasn’t on the radar for an imminent look at the MLB level. Seattle will instead officially part ways with the 26-year-old hurler, a disappointing conclusion to a four-plus year tenure in the organization.

The M’s first acquired Sheffield from the Yankees in the James Paxton trade over the 2018-19 offseason. One of the game’s top pitching prospects at the time of the deal, Sheffield was regarded by many prospect evaluators as a potential mid-rotation starter. He was the headlining piece of the trade return, though righty Erik Swanson wound up outperforming him after moving to the bullpen.

Sheffield struggled in a brief look in 2019 but flashed some of that promise during the shortened 2020 campaign. Sheffield had a 3.58 ERA through 10 starts that year, inducing ground balls at a quality 50.6% clip. Over the past two seasons, though, the former first round draftee has allowed over six earned runs per nine innings at the MLB level. His ERA was pushing 7.00 over 24 starts in Triple-A last season.

That led to him clearing waivers in January, preceding his immense struggles through this season’s first month. He’ll hit the open market in search of a new landing spot, which would assuredly be via minor league contract.

Kenta Maeda Diagnosed With Muscle Strain In Forearm/Elbow Area

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APRIL 27: The MRI results aligned with expectations. Baldelli told reporters that imaging revealed a muscle strain but no structural damage (via Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic). Maeda is likely to go on the 15-day IL but seems to have avoided a serious issue.

APRIL 26: Twins starter Kenta Maeda is going for an MRI after feeling elbow soreness during this afternoon’s start against the Yankees, manager Rocco Baldelli told the team’s beat (video relayed by Alec Ausmus of KSTP TV). Baldelli indicated the right-hander would “need some time off” but downplayed any major concern.

According to Baldelli, the discomfort appears to be muscular as opposed to indicative of a structural concern. He suggested the team doesn’t believe the issue related to the Tommy John surgery that sidelined Maeda for the entire 2022 campaign. Nevertheless, the suggestion of Maeda taking some time to rest points to a likely trip to the 15-day injured list.

The 35-year-old hurler has had a rough few weeks to open the year. Maeda has been tagged for 16 runs in as many innings. Much of that damage came in today’s loss at the hands of the Yankees, who teed off for ten runs in the first three frames. Given that the veteran hurler was bothered by elbow discomfort for at least part of today’s start, it’s tough to know how much stock to put into his early-season production.

Maeda has spent parts of four seasons with the Twins. He was the AL Cy Young runner-up during the shortened 2020 campaign, the result of a sterling 2.70 ERA across 66 2/3 frames. He’d compiled a 4.66 ERA, albeit with better peripherals, over 21 starts the following year before going under the knife in September 2021.

The rotation had been a problem in the Twin Cities for the past couple seasons. They’d been off to a much better start in 2023 to help the club to a 14-11 first few weeks. Minnesota starters entered play Wednesday with the game’s best ERA (2.62) and most innings pitched (137 1/3), though Maeda’s tough outing today didn’t do them any favors.

Each of Pablo López, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan is off to a fantastic start to the season. Tyler Mahle hasn’t quite been at that level but he’s had a strong first month in his own right. If Maeda hits the IL, Bailey Ober would seem the top candidate to step into the rotation. A member of the starting five for the past couple seasons, the towering right-hander has spent the bulk of this year with Triple-A St. Paul. Ober came up for a spot start against the Nationals on Sunday; he was promptly optioned back out, though he could be recalled to replace a player going on the IL without spending the otherwise required 15 days in the minor leagues.

Marlins Outright Sean Nolin

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Left-hander Sean Nolin has been outrighted by the Marlins to Triple-A Jacksonville, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week. Since he has been previously outrighted in his career, he has the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency, though it’s not yet clear if he’s decided to do so.

Nolin, 33, has racked up a lot of miles in his career. Originally a draft pick of the Blue Jays, he briefly made it to the big leagues with them in 2013 and 2014, getting one appearance in each of those seasons. He then went to the Athletics in the Josh Donaldson trade but posted a 5.28 ERA in six starts in 2015 before getting designated for assignment prior to the following season.

He then missed the next five major league campaigns, bouncing around the minors and non-affiliated leagues, going to the Brewers, Rockies, White Sox, the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League, the Mariners and the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball. He returned to the bigs in 2021, tossing 26 2/3 innings for the Nats in that season with a 4.39 ERA. He went to the Kia Tigers of the KBO League last year before returning to North America this offseason.

The southpaw signed a minor league deal with the Twins in February but was flipped to the Marlins a week ago, just before he was selected to the big league club. The Fish put him into Monday’s game when they were down 5-0, leaving him out for three innings of mop-up duty wherein he allowed six runs, designating him for assignment the day after he was selected. Nolin could decide to accept the assignment and join the Jumbo Shrimp but he could also opt for the open market to see if there are any opportunities out there for him.

White Sox Notes: Anderson, Alberto, Crochet, Hendriks, Moncada

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The White Sox provided reporters with some updates on various injured players and their paths to rejoining the club, with James Fegan of The Athletic among those to relay the information (Twitter links). The ones closest to return are infielders Tim Anderson and Hanser Alberto, as they will be starting rehab assignments with Triple-A Charlotte tomorrow.

Anderson, 30 in June, has been on the injured list since April 11 due to a knee sprain. He was initially estimated to miss between two and four weeks, so it’s still possible for him to come back in that time frame. One of the club’s better players, his absence has corresponded with a dreadful downward slide in the standings. The Sox were 5-6 when he hit the shelf but have gone just 2-12 since, now sporting a record of 7-18.

The club is obviously better when Anderson is a part of it. Dating back to the start of 2019, he has 51 home runs and 58 stolen bases. His .317/.346/.471 batting line in that time amounts to a wRC+ of 122. Any club would be worse off when subtracting that kind of production, but his replacements have fared quite poorly. With him out of action, Elvis Andrus has become the everyday shortstop, but he’s hitting just .195/.260/.230 on the year for a wRC+ of 37. The second base position, which was previously covered by Andrus, has been mostly split between Romy González and Lenyn Sosa in that time. González is currently hitting .129/.129/.129 for a wRC+ of -39 while Sosa’s line is .122/.143/.220, -8 wRC+.

The tremendous drop-off from Anderson’s typical production to those numbers has surely played a role in the club’s recent struggles, making his imminent return fantastic news for the club. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate this summer if they fail to return to contention, given he’s in the final guaranteed season of his contract. However, the club has an affordable $14MM option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout.

There’s also good news in the return of Albero, on the IL with a quad strain, though he’s more of a role player. His career batting line of .271/.293/.380 translates to a wRC+ of 77, which isn’t terribly exciting but would still mean the club would have options to turn to when others are struggling.

Just slightly behind those two is left-hander Garrett Crochet, who missed all of last year due to undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He’s getting a check-up in Chicago but would be approved for his own rehab assignment if everything looks good there. The southpaw has a career 2.54 ERA in 60 1/3 innings, striking out 29% of batters faced against a 10.7% walk rate. Getting him back in the bullpen would surely give the club a nice boost back there.

Another boost for the bullpen could be coming as right-hander Liam Hendriks, who has missed all of this season so far while undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, though he recently shared the good news that he’s been declared cancer free. He’s just slightly behind Crochet, as he will report to Chicago for his own pre-rehab checkup next week. He’s become one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in recent years, racking up 119 saves in the previous four seasons with a 2.26 ERA and 38.8% strikeout rate in that time.

While it’s great that those four players are making progress towards their respective returns, there’s one bit of news that’s less encouraging, per Fegan. Third baseman Yoán Moncada, who was been on the injured list for about two weeks due to back tightness, has been diagnosed with a protruding disc that is touching a nerve and causing pain in his glutes. While the issue is supposedly improving, Moncada still won’t be starting a rehab assignment during the current eight-game homestand that begins tonight. General manager Rick Hahn said that these issues don’t require offseason surgery about 80% of the time.

That’s surely not ideal information since Moncada’s IL placement originally seemed to be fairly precautionary. There was a period of a few days where it seemed he and the club were hoping to avoid an IL stint altogether but it’s now clearly more serious than initially thought. More updates will surely be forthcoming but it doesn’t seem like he’s close to a return and future surgery isn’t completely off the table.

Moncada has been fairly hot-and-cold in his career but was on a heater this year before the injury popped up, hitting .308/.325/.564 through his first nine games. Thankfully, his absence hasn’t created as much of a hole in the lineup as Anderson’s has, as Jake Burger has filled in with a .213/.309/.596 showing. Still, it’s a discouraging update on a key member of the core for a club that was held back by significant injuries last year and has been battling them again this year. His contract runs through 2024 with a $25MM option for 2025 that has a $5MM buyout.

The Angels’ Unexpected Rotation Dilemma

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It’s a pivotal year for the Angels, who could be nearing an inflection point with Shohei Ohtani in his final season of arbitration control. A lack of overall roster depth has plagued the club in prior years. For much of that time, the issue was starting pitching, though last year’s team was plagued more by mediocre contributions from the bottom of the lineup and a below-average bullpen.

Los Angeles had a productive starting staff last season, checking in sixth in the majors with a 3.67 rotation ERA. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored towards the end of the year, much of that was attributable to the emergence of a trio of left-handers. Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez had performed effectively to varying degrees. Sandoval and Detmers looked like potential mid-rotation types; Suarez was more in the solid fourth starter mold. With Ohtani at the top and the offseason pickup of Tyler Anderson via free agency, Los Angeles entered the year with the nucleus of another strong rotation.

That hasn’t quite borne out through the season’s first month. Angels starters have allowed 4.45 earned runs per nine innings, a league average figure. That’s in part because of a disappointing first four starts from Anderson, but the bigger concern is how hittable Suarez has been. The 25-year-old has allowed 20 runs (19 earned) in 16 2/3 innings through four outings. He’s walked nine batters against 12 strikeouts and surrendered a staggering seven homers. His 10.26 ERA ties that of the recently released Madison Bumgarner for the seventh-highest mark among starters with 10+ innings.

It’s very early in the season but Suarez’s first few starts have been noncompetitive. He’s only completed five frames once. That came against a mediocre A’s lineup that still teed off for seven runs and connected on five of the homers Suarez has allowed. The Angels can’t accept continued performances at that level for very long.

The struggles have mostly come out of nowhere. Suarez never flashed the upside that rotation mates Sandoval and Detmers have. He’d been seen by many prospect evaluators as a perfectly capable back-of-the-rotation starter, though, and that’s what he’d been from 2021-22. Suarez allowed a little under four earned runs per nine in both seasons, combining for a 3.86 ERA/4.01 FIP in 207 1/3 frames over that stretch. His 21.5% strikeout rate was a tick below average but he did a decent job keeping the ball in the park and kept his walks to a manageable 7.9% clip.

While it’d perhaps be in the organization’s best interest to get Suarez some Triple-A work to iron things out, that’s not easy. He has exhausted his minor league option years. In order to take him off the MLB roster, the Halos would have to designate him for assignment and either trade him or put him on outright waivers. If he went unclaimed, they’d be able to send him to Triple-A. Even with his awful first month, it seems likely another team would roll the dice based on his prior track record. Noncompetitive clubs like the A’s, Reds, Rockies and Nationals could find a spot for him in the rotation and hope he gets things on track. Suarez has yet to reach arbitration and isn’t trending towards free agency until the 2026-27 offseason.

General manager Perry Minasian and his front office are left with three choices: keep giving Suarez turns through the rotation, move him to relief, or make him available to other clubs via DFA. To this point, they’re sticking with the first option. Manager Phil Nevin was initially noncommittal after Suarez was knocked around by the A’s on Monday; however, the skipper told reporters Tuesday afternoon the southpaw would make his next start (link via Sam Blum of the Athletic). He’s slated to take the mound for Sunday afternoon’s game in Milwaukee.

“We’ve got to get him better,” Nevin told reporters (via Blum). “He’s talented. He’s worked too hard. And he’s come so far. I’ve gone on and on about how we feel about him and the things he’s done. It’s just right now, it’s got to get better.” Suarez expressed some exasperation. While he pointed to a potential pitch-tipping issue during his Oakland start, he told the team’s beat he “honestly (doesn’t) know what’s happening.”

On a pitch-for-pitch basis, Suarez doesn’t look much different than he did last season. The velocity on his pitches has held steady. The spin on his four-seam fastball is up a bit. He’s getting swinging strikes on 11.7% of his offerings, an exact match for last year’s rate. Suarez has been an effective pitcher with essentially this exact arsenal in previous seasons.

He hasn’t executed as consistently this year as he has in prior seasons. Suarez is having a hard time getting ahead in counts, throwing a first-pitch strike just 57% of the time after starting with strike one at a near-65% rate last year. That’s obviously a disadvantageous position for a pitcher who succeeds more on command and sequencing than overpowering raw stuff. Even when Suarez has gotten himself into favorable counts, he’s had a hard time putting hitters away by leaving too many pitches over the heart of the plate. (This Teoscar Hernández homer on an 0-1 slider is a representative example.)

That the issue seems largely to be about command rather than a drop in raw pitch quality offers some optimism. Suarez needs to execute his pitches more consistently but there aren’t any indications he’s battling physical issues. That said, it’s perhaps tougher to diagnose how quickly Suarez can break out of his ongoing funk, raising the question of how long the Angels can keep him in the starting staff.

A bullpen transfer could allow Nevin to deploy him more selectively as he works on things but that’d be far from ideal. As Blum points out, six of the Angels’ eight current relievers cannot be optioned themselves. One of the two who can be sent down, Andrew Wantz, has been the club’s best reliever so far. Putting Suarez in that mix wouldn’t leave the team with much flexibility and would perhaps force a veteran bullpen arm off the roster.

The Angels could flip the out-of-options Tucker Davidson, who’s been working in long relief, into Suarez’s rotation role while kicking the latter into mop-up duty. Davidson has been quite effective out of the bullpen after struggling as a starting pitcher last season. Obviously, the club’s hope is that Suarez finds his footing sooner than later. Another poor start or two could leave them to ponder a tough decision they weren’t anticipating on Opening Day.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates Could Pursue More Contract Extensions

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The Pirates’ extension of Bryan Reynolds — seven years and $100MM on top of his current $6.75MM salary — put an end to a long-running saga of trade rumors swirling around the All-Star outfielder. It’s the first nine-figure contract in franchise history and the second long-term deal with a hopeful core player of the past 14 months; Pittsburgh also signed third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70MM deal prior to the 2022 season. Speaking at yesterday’s press conference to announce the Reynolds extension, Pirates owner Bob Nutting suggested that he hopes to work out long-term deals with additional core players (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).

Nutting noted that “to a great degree, we’re just getting started,” going on to call Reynolds’ new contract “a huge step forward for the franchise” before adding that he’s “confident we’ll have future steps as we go forward.” Pirates fans, in particular, will want to check out Gorman’s full piece for comments not only from Nutting but also from Reynolds himself and from general manager Ben Cherington.

On the one hand, it’s fairly common for owners and baseball operations leaders to offer up what’s essentially boilerplate executive-speak about wanting to extend core players on a young club. On the other, Nutting has kept a notoriously tight budget and small payroll for the Pirates. The extensions for Hayes and especially for Reynolds mark a definitive change in course for the club, and with fresh off guaranteeing his top player an additional $100MM in guaranteed money, Nutting’s words perhaps carry a bit of extra credence.

If the Bucs do plan to explore — or already have explored — long-term pacts with additional players, there are a handful of logical candidates for such a deal. In the rotation, right-handers Roansy Contreras and Mitch Keller both increasingly look like solid building blocks, though they’re at very different stages of their careers. The 23-year-old Contreras doesn’t yet have a full season of Major League service time, putting his earning power on an extension considerably south of Keller. The Reds just locked up righty Hunter Greene, who was controllable for five more seasons, on a six-year, $53MM contract. Contreras is even further removed from free agency and would presumably come with a lower price tag.

Keller, meanwhile, is earning $2.4375MM in 2023 with just two more seasons of club control remaining beyond the current campaign. The 2014 second-rounder ranked as one of the game’s top pitching prospects prior to his debut in 2019, and while it’s taken some time for him to get there, Keller has begun to solidify himself as a quality starter.

Dating back to last May, when he added a sinker to his repertoire and began to rely less heavily on his four-seamer, the 27-year-old sports a 3.28 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 8.6% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground-ball rate in 159 1/3 innings. That includes an impressive six-inning, two-run, 10-strikeout performance against the Dodgers today. If he were to continue at this pace, he’d have a strong case in extension talks. For some context, Keller will be in the same service class following the 2023 season that Kyle Freeland (five years, $64.5MM) and Pablo Lopez (four years, $73.5MM) were when they signed their own extensions. The Bucs could try to pursue something sooner, but regardless, much of Keller’s breakout looks sustainable.

Elsewhere on the roster, closer David Bednar is a local product who’s emerged as a fan favorite and as one of the game’s better relievers. Since coming over from the Padres as part of the return for Joe Musgrove, he’s pitched to a 2.26 ERA with a 32.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 30 saves and 17 holds. His 2023 campaign has been particularly impressive, as Bednar has yielded just one run in 12 innings with a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

That said, relievers are notoriously volatile on a year-to-year basis, and Bednar is already 28 years old. The Pirates control him through his age-31 season and might find some risk in locking him into an extension that would effectively be buying his age-32 campaign and perhaps a season or two thereafter.

In the lineup, the Pirates have some interesting candidates. Shortstop Oneil Cruz is currently out while recovering from a fractured ankle but has displayed some of the most tantalizing tools in all of baseball when healthy. His development is still a work in progress, particularly with regard to his approach at the plate, but few players can match his combination of power, speed and athleticism. Meanwhile, outfielder Jack Suwinski has quickly become a Statcast darling, with eye-popping exit velocity, barrel rates and sprint speed. Both young hitters are controllable through the 2028 season at present.

The Bucs have plenty of young talent beyond that grouping — some of it yet to debut in the Majors. Catchers Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are among the most highly regarded in the sport at their position. Right-handers Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester are both considered potential rotation pieces in the long term. Infielder Nick Gonzales just hit the minor league injured list with a shoulder strain today but is in Triple-A and could potentially make his debut later this year if the issue proves minor.

Broadly speaking, the Pirates have a deep and talented system, with plenty of interesting long-term pieces already on the roster and also on the cusp of debuting while biding their time in the upper minors. There’s always risk for a low-payroll club like this to lock players up so early, as the margin for error is thinner than with a deep-pocketed rival. That said, hitting a home run on an early extension can also be key in allowing teams in this payroll sphere to spend a bit more in free agency, if their core players are locked in at affordable rates. Only time will tell whether Nutting’s comments were merely lip service or the beginning of a welcome trend for Bucs fans, but regardless of which is true, the organization’s future looks increasingly bright.

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