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Archives for 2023

Enter The MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

By Tim Dierkes | November 13, 2023 at 2:04pm CDT

UPDATE: The contest is now closed.  Stay tuned for the leaderboard.

The MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest is currently open!  Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents.  The deadline for entry is TONIGHT at 11pm central time!  You can edit your picks until then.  Further contest info:

  • After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams.  We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it.  So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest.  Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
  • We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.
  • If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that player will be excluded from the contest.
  • After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms.  In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
  • We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed.  We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place.  We will also be giving  one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office for everyone who finishes in the top 15.  Winners must respond to an email within one week.
  • The winners of this contest will be declared on Opening Day 2024, and any unsigned players will be excluded from the competition.
  • Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total.  For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct.  Tim gets Shohei Ohtani (#1 ranking) and Jordan Hicks (#21 ranking) for a total of 22 points.  Steve gets Jordan Montgomery (#6) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (#14) for a total of 20 points.  Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.

If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post!  Otherwise, make your picks now!

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Reds Sign P.J. Higgins To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2023 at 2:00pm CDT

The Reds announced Monday that they’ve signed catcher/infielder P.J. Higgins to a minor league contract. The Bledsoe Agency client will receive an invitation to big league camp in spring training.

Higgins, 30, logged Major League time with the Cubs in 2021-22, batting a combined .210/.291/.348 with six home runs, 11 doubles and a triple in 254 trips to the plate. Modest as that production may be, Higgins has spent parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level and clobbered opposing pitchers at that level, posting a .318/.401/.499 slash in 672 overall plate appearances.

Beyond the production at the plate in the upper minors, Higgins has some quiet versatility that could help him eventually win a spot on Cincinnati’s bench. He’s primarily been a catcher in his professional career, but the Cubs have also given him 867 career innings at first base, 584 innings at third base, 93 innings at second base and even 37 frames at shortstop. If he can ultimately deliver anything within a stone’s throw of league-average production at the plate, he could make for an interesting bench player — particularly for a Reds club that carried three catchers for much of the 2023 season (Tyler Stephenson, Luke Maile, Curt Casali).

As things stand, Stephenson and the recently re-signed Maile figure to handle considerable work behind the plate. That said, Stephenson was more productive at the plate when he was playing first base or serving as a designated hitter than when he was catching — and his glovework behind the dish also graded out quite poorly. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if the Reds again opt for three catchers, with Stephenson spending ample time at first and DH. Higgins could potentially factor into that equation if he impresses next spring. He hasn’t drawn particularly strong defensive grades in limited action in the majors, though Baseball America touted him as at least an average defender at catcher before his MLB debut.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions P.J. Higgins

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Latest On Astros, Alex Bregman

By Darragh McDonald | November 13, 2023 at 1:52pm CDT

The Astros and general manager Dana Brown have been open about their interest in signing extensions with infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, but the former may be more likely than the latter. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, a high-ranking executive with the club said they want Altuve for the rest of his career but are highly skeptical of getting something done with Bregman as well.

Bregman, 30 in March, already signed one extension with the Astros. Going into the 2019 season, he and the club agreed to a five-year pact with a $100MM guarantee. He already had a 2019 salary in place, with that deal covering the 2020-2024 seasons. That leaves just one year and $28.5MM left on the contract.

When pen was put to paper that time, Bregman was in between his two best seasons. In 2018, he launched 31 home runs and stole 10 bases, leading to a batting line of .286/.394/.532 and wRC+ of 157. He got strong grades for his defense at third and even played a passable shortstop for part of the year, leading to 8.0 wins above replacement per FanGraphs and a fifth-place finish in the voting for American League Most Valuable Player. The next year, he only stole five bases but his homer tally jumped to 41 and his on-base percentage was almost 30 points higher. That was the “juiced ball” season so his wRC+ only increased slightly to 167, but he finished second to Mike Trout in MVP voting that year.

Since then, Bregman has settled in a bit below that level, still a very good player but not quite MVP caliber. The past two seasons have seen him combine for 48 home runs and a .261/.364/.447 batting line, which translates to a wRC+ of 131. He produced 9.8 fWAR over the two years combined.

Though that technically qualifies as diminished production relative to his 2018-2019 peak, it’s still excellent work overall. Only 21 position players had a higher fWAR tally in 2022-2023, with Bregman fourth among regular third basemen behind just José Ramírez, Manny Machado and Austin Riley.

As of right now, Bregman is set to hit free agency in advance of his age-31 season, which still lines him up for a solid payday. Marcus Semien was also an above-average infielder who generally produced a bit below MVP levels when he got $175MM from the Rangers two years ago. Bregman’s former teammate George Springer was able to get $150MM going into his age-31 season. Freddie Freeman nabbed an MVP award in 2020 but was a bit limited as a free agent since he only played first base and was going into his age-32 season, though he nonetheless got himself $162MM.

Something in that range should be attainable for Bregman but it may not be from the Astros. The club has generally avoided long-term deals that run deep into a player’s career, letting guys like Springer, Carlos Correa and others walk away and get paid elsewhere. That strategy has continued to work out for them so far, as they just made the ALCS for a seventh straight season, but there are some pivot points coming up. Altuve and Bregman are both set to become free agents after 2024, with Justin Verlander perhaps joining them depending on his vesting option. One year later, it will be Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, José Abreu and others.

With such a significant chunk of their core nearing free agency, it’s not surprising that they want to pivot from their standard playbook in order to try to keep that mass exodus from coming to fruition. Things can always change but it seems the current feeling is that Altuve will get done but Bregman won’t. The club already has some significant deals for younger players on the books going forward, with Yordan Alvarez signed through 2028, Cristian Javier through 2027 and Lance McCullers Jr. 2026. Perhaps those deals, and a theoretical Altuve contract, don’t leave much room for Bregman. Or perhaps Bregman simply wants to test the open market after having already signed one significant extension and banking nine figures.

It’s unclear if there are any strict timelines on negotiations, with Spring Training being the most common time for extensions to be hammered out. At this time of year, clubs usually prefer to focus on bringing in new players from free agency and trades, before pivoting back to talks with their incumbent players in February and March. However, the Astros don’t seem to have a massive to-do list this winter, with Brown recently listing backup catcher and the bullpen as priorities. Perhaps that gives them a bit of breathing room this winter to have some detailed talks with Scott Boras, who represents both Altuve and Bregman, to see if anything can get done. Boras will certainly be busy though, as he is representing a pile of this winter’s free agents, including Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and many more.

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Houston Astros Alex Bregman

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Yankees Name James Rowson Hitting Coach

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2023 at 1:07pm CDT

The Yankees announced Monday that they’ve hired James Rowson as their new hitting coach. He’d reportedly been offered the position last week.

Rowson, 47, is no stranger to the Yankees organization, having spent nine years as a minor league hitting coach and minor league hitting coordinator. He’s spent the past nine seasons on Major League coaching staffs, most recently working with the 2023 Tigers as their assistant hitting coach. Rowson has also served as a bench coach and “offensive coordinator” with the Marlins and the hitting coach with the Twins.

The 2024 season will be Rowson’s tenth on a Major League staff. Perhaps most notable on his resume was his third and final season in Minnesota, when he was the hitting coach for a Twins roster that set a Major League record with 307 home runs on the season. The year of the Twins’ “Bomba Squad,” as they were nicknamed, coincided with MLB’s juiced ball season, but it was nonetheless an impressive season for the lineup and one for which Rowson drew plenty of credit. The Marlins offered him a promotion and hired him away from Minnesota that offseason.

Rowson will replace outgoing hitting coach Sean Casey, who took the role midseason after the Yankees fired Dillon Lawson. Casey seemed to make an immediate impression on Yankees hitters, but after spending half a year on the job, he came to the conclusion that the time away from his family over the course of a full season would simply be too much. Casey said on October 25 that he planned to return home to spend more time with his two young daughters, stating that time for him simply isn’t “perfect” at this juncture. He did leave the door open for a possible return to coaching “in the next few years.”

With this hire, the Yankees are trotting out their fourth hitting coach in as many seasons and surely hoping that Rowson will have some staying power. The Yanks opted not to retain Marcus Thames following the 2021 season, and they’ve since quickly moved on from Lawson and seen Casey cite family reasons for his own departure. There’s always the possibility, of course, that another club will pry Rowson away with for a more prominent role. In addition to his three seasons as a bench coach in Miami, he’s also previously interviewed for the Twins’ managerial vacancy that went to Rocco Baldelli and was reportedly one of three finalists in the Red Sox’ most recent managerial search. That only speaks to how well regarded Rowson is throughout the industry, however.

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Detroit Tigers New York Yankees James Rowson

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Rays Rumors: Glasnow, Ramirez, Margot

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2023 at 12:37pm CDT

The Rays head into the 2024 season with a projected franchise-record payroll north of $125MM — a stark increase from previous highwater marks in the $80MM range. President of baseball operations Erik Neander said a month ago that the team is capable of and open to trotting out a new record mark, although there’s a stark difference between broadcasting the ability to increase payroll to some unspecified extent and projecting for about a 50% increase over their previous record.

Unsurprisingly, that’s thrust several notable Rays players into the rumor mill. Chief among them is ace Tyler Glasnow, who’s set to earn $25MM in 2024 before reaching free agency. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times have written in the past 24 hours on the potential of a Glasnow trade at some point this offseason. As Rosenthal points out, the Rays figure to extend a qualifying offer to Glasnow following the ’24 season if he’s not traded, and the potentially recouped draft pick will factor into what already figures to be a lofty asking price.

The Rays will be able to hold out for a larger return, knowing they’d have another opportunity to shop Glasnow at the trade deadline if their season goes south. Even if they hold onto Glasnow for the whole year, the draft pick they pick up would likely come at the end of the first round of the ’25 draft. They’d need a trade package to outweigh not only a full season of Glasnow but also a draft pick around No. 30. Similarly, any team acquiring Glasnow in the offseason would be acquiring the right to make that QO themselves. The compensatory pick another club would receive for qualifying Glasnow would be dependent on that team’s revenue-sharing and luxury-tax statuses, but it’ll clearly factor into valuing a Glasnow package for both the Rays and potential trade partners.

At the time Glasnow signed his extension in 2022, it was genuinely surprising to see him ink a deal that bought out just one free-agent year — even as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Glasnow spoke candidly about how Tampa Bay was where he wanted to be. Any player signing a long-term deal with the Rays likely does so knowing that an eventual trade is a possibility, however.

Glasnow’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery was hampered by an oblique injury, although he still posted 120 good innings: 3.53 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 51.2% ground-ball rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.91) and SIERA (3.08) felt he pitched quite a bit better than his earned run average would otherwise indicate. With 120 innings under his belt and more than two years elapsed since his surgery, it stands to reason that there won’t be many (if any) innings restrictions on Glasnow in 2024.

There’s no indication a Glasnow trade is close or even necessarily likely. Interest in him will persist so long as he remains with the Rays, as their payroll situation is obvious and demand for high-end rotation help is always strong. For the time being, however, a far more pressing trade candidate could be right-handed slugger Harold Ramirez, whom Topkin suggests is a candidate to change hands with this week’s deadlines to set 40-man rosters prior  to the Rule 5 Draft (Tuesday) and to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players (Friday).

The 29-year-old Ramirez doesn’t bring much defensive value to the table, having operated primarily as a designated hitter this past season. He’s logged time at first base and in both outfield corners in the past, though he hasn’t graded out all that well. However, Ramirez also slashed a robust .313/.353/.460 this season and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a reasonable $4.4MM salary in 2024.

The Rays control Ramirez for another two seasons, but they’re already a heavily right-handed team and might want to open some more flexibility at the designated hitter spot. There’s also the question of whether Ramirez can be expected to repeat this past season’s career-best production. The bulk of his damage came against lefties, whom he tattooed at a ridiculous .387/.411/.555 clip — but that was with the benefit of a sky-high .447 average on balls in play. That’ll be tough to repeat, though Ramirez’s knack for putting the ball in play (career 17.8% strikeout rate) has helped him maintain a lifetime .289 average in the big leagues. He doesn’t supplement that with many walks or all that much power, but he’s a clearly a talented hitter who could pique the interest of any club looking for a righty bat to plug into its first base/corner outfield/DH mix.

Along those same lines, Topkin lists Manuel Margot as a possible trade candidate. The fleet-footed outfielder has previously graded as a plus defender across all three spots, though last year’s defensive grades took a dip after he missed most of the 2022 season due to patellar tendon strain in his right knee. The righty-swinging Margot turned in a .264/.310/.376 slash in 2023 and is slated to earn $10MM in 2024 — the final season of his contract.

Margot could draw interest from clubs looking for a right-handed bat to play across the outfield — particularly if an interested party believes that his defensive ratings will tick back up the further removed he is from that significant knee injury. To be clear, Margot didn’t necessarily grade as a poor outfielder, but last year’s -3 Defensive Runs Saved and +3 Outs Above Average were well shy of the respective marks of 13 and 16 that he posted in his last full, healthy season (2021).

Margot’s production at the plate last year aligned almost perfectly with his broader marks in four seasons with the Rays, for whom he’s been a .264/.317/.375 hitter. In particular, Margot has been a thorn in the side of left-handers, posting a career .281/.341/.420 line when holding the platoon advantage. The Rays have several other outfield options (e.g. Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, Ramirez, Greg Jones) and a knack for finding undervalued bats on the trade market, which could make them all the more willing to move Margot for future pieces while simultaneously paring back payroll in a meaningful way.

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Tampa Bay Rays Harold Ramirez Manuel Margot Tyler Glasnow

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Braves Notes: Grissom, Rotation, Payroll

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2023 at 10:48am CDT

The Braves’ decision to decline their $9MM club option on Eddie Rosario created a vacancy in left field, and the team is still deciding how to go about patching that need. Among internal options, former top infield prospect Vaughn Grissom appears to be the leading candidate. Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos acknowledged that playing Grissom in left field is a possibility “because he’s a tremendous athlete” (link via David O’Brien of The Athletic). Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that Anthopoulos also said at last week’s GM Meetings that Grissom has already expressed an openness to play anywhere on the field.

Grissom, 23 in January, broke into the Majors on a blistering hot streak in 2022, hitting .347/.398/.558 in his first 103 plate appearances. His bat went cold to close out that season, however, and he didn’t provide much offense in scattershot looks throughout the 2023 campaign. In all, he’s followed those 103 torrid trips to the plate with 133 plate appearances of .240/.293/.289 output. However, Grissom looked like he little to prove in Triple-A this past season, mashing at a .330/.419/.501 rate in a much larger sample of 468 plate appearances.

Though the organization is clearly open to the idea of testing Grissom’s natural athleticism in the outfield, it should be noted that he’s yet to log a single professional inning on the grass. He’s played exclusively shortstop (2140 innings), second base (792 innings) and third base (235 innings) between the big leagues and the minors, playing the two middle infield spots exclusively in the big leagues.

Of course, regular playing time at any of those spots will be hard to come by in 2024. Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley have second base and third base locked down, respectively. Former utilityman Orlando Arcia seized the everyday shortstop job after Dansby Swanson departed in free agency, hitting .264/.321/.420 with 17 home runs in 139 games. It’s fair to point out that Arcia has a limited track record and also faded in the season’s final month (.200/.260/.316 from Sept. 1 onward), but the strength of his season overall should earn him another look in 2024. Besides, one of the very reasons Arcia was given an everyday look at shortstop was due to the organization’s concerns with Grissom’s defensive abilities at the position.

External options abound, with the free-agent market including the likes of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Michael Brantley and Tommy Pham, among others (to say nothing of a potential lower-cost reunion with Rosario). Trade options include Alex Verdugo, Max Kepler and Dylan Carlson, to name just a few. Going with Grissom would allow the Braves to get a longer look at a top homegrown talent while also saving some payroll to allocate to the team’s expected pursuit of a starting pitcher. At the same time, bringing in an external option could free the possibility of including Grissom as part of a trade package to add a starter who might be more cost effective than a free agent.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Braves expect to pursue at least one arm this offseason, listing longtime division rival Aaron Nola as potential fit (albeit in somewhat speculative fashion) due to his southern roots and his relationship with current Braves pitching coach Rick Kranitz (Nola’s former bullpen/pitching coach in Philly).

Despite their bevy of long-term contract extensions, the Braves have thus far resisted going beyond a $22MM average annual value for any player on their roster. Anthopoulos has spoken in the past as to how that’s not a limitation that’s written in stone, however; the Braves paid Josh Donaldson $23MM on his one-year deal, for instance, and they’re surely held interest in free agents who’d command a larger AAV than that. Rosenthal reports that for “the right pitcher,” the Braves would be willing to extend beyond a $22MM AAV.

Whether that’s Nola, NL Cy Young frontrunner Blake Snell, NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, AL Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray, a trade candidate or an extension candidate (i.e. Max Fried) remains to be seen. Rosenthal points out that the Braves don’t have a Scott Boras client on the current roster — Snell and Yamamoto are repped by Boras — though I’d add that like the $22MM AAV, that’s not a hard-and-fast rule. The Braves have had Boras clients on the roster in recent seasons, Touki Toussaint and Dallas Keuchel among them.

Anthopoulos and Braves CEO Terry McGuirk have both publicly spoken about the expectation that payroll will increase for a third straight season, though much of that uptick in spending will come from the roster that’s already in place. Many players who were signed to long-term contract extensions will see their salaries increase under the terms of those deals. That’s true of Austin Riley (a $5MM increase), Matt Olson ($1MM) and Sean Murphy ($5MM). Re-signed relievers Joe Jimenez ($8MM) and Pierce Johnson ($7MM) will also see increases over last year’s respective salaries of $2.765MM and $5MM. Meanwhile, Fried and A.J. Minter are in line for raises on last year’s respective salaries of $13.5MM and $4.2875MM.

The Braves finished the 2023 season with a payroll just shy of $205MM and more than $245MM of luxury-tax commitments, per Roster Resource. They’re already at $207MM and $236MM per those same projections, though non-tenders and potential trades will impact the bottom line.

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Atlanta Braves Aaron Nola Vaughn Grissom

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Cubs Hire Craig Counsell As Manager

By Darragh McDonald | November 13, 2023 at 9:55am CDT

Nov. 13: The Cubs formally introduced Counsell at a press conference Monday morning.

Nov. 6: The managerial market provided a stunning twist today, with Craig Counsell jumping from the Brewers to the Cubs. He will replace David Ross, who has been relieved of his duties, per an announcement from the Cubs. Counsell will become the highest-paid manager in the league, earning $40MM over the next five years, $8MM per year. The Brewers reportedly made him an offer to stay in Milwaukee but topped out at $5.5MM per year.

“Today we made the difficult decision to dismiss David Ross as our Major League Manager,” a statement from president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer reads. “On behalf of the Cubs organization, we express our deep gratitude for David’s contributions to our club, both on and off the field. First as a player and then as a manger, David continually showcased his ability to lead. David’s legacy will be felt in Chicago for generations and his impact to our organization will stack up with the legends that came before him. Going forward, our Major League team will be managed by Craig Counsell. We look forward to welcoming Craig at Wrigley Field early next week.”

Counsell took over as manager of the Brewers for the 2015 season. Since then, the club has had a run of strong results, making the playoffs in five of the past six years despite generally having low payrolls. 2023 was the final year of his contract and he was a popular target around the league. He interviewed with the Guardians and Mets and garnered interest from the Astros, though a return to the Brewers seemed to still be possible. But now in a stunning twist, he’s jumping from the Brewers to their divisional rivals, who weren’t even known to be looking for a new skipper.

The fit with the Mets was a sensible assumption to make, even before Counsell interviewed there. David Stearns, who worked with Counsell for many years in Milwaukee, was hired by the Mets a couple of months ago to be president of baseball operations. It was also reported last week that Counsell was looking to push manager salaries forward, which only made the fit with the Mets more logical, given the spendthrift stylings of owner Steve Cohen.

Joe Torre previously had the managerial salary record, earning $8MM with the Yankees. But his last season in the dugout was 2007 and salaries for skippers have evidently levelled off since then. Recent reporting indicated that Terry Francona of the Guardians was the highest-paid manager in 2023, with a reported salary of $4.5MM. Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote last month about the growing concern around the game that managerial and coaching salaries at the big league level were falling behind those of many colleges. Counsell seems to have set a mission to reverse that trend and seems to have done so, which could potentially have effects in the game for years to come.

But the fact that the Cubs have swooped in to be the one to help him accomplish that goal is a development that came out of nowhere. Ross has been the manager for the Cubs since 2020 and was extended prior to 2022, with a contract that went through 2024 and had a club option for 2025. The Cubs have been rebuilding for much of that time but made a more earnest shot at contending in 2023. They gave significant contracts to players like Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Cody Bellinger and others last winter and then added Jeimer Candelario at the deadline. Unfortunately, the club fell just short, finishing 83-79 and just a single game back of a Wild Card spot.

It seems the club will respond to that finish with a managerial shift, though it’s not necessarily a knock on Ross. Heyman reports that today’s development was more about Counsell’s availability than it was about Ross. As the season was winding down, both Hoyer and chairman Tom Ricketts voiced support for Ross but they have now pivoted in a big way, putting down significant cash to do so.

This move will have ripple effects on the game of musical chairs that has been playing out in terms of big league managerial positions. Counsell will be charged with leading the Cubs further away from their recent rebuild while the Brewers will now have to look for a new bench boss for the first time in almost a decade. The Astros, Padres and Angels have current vacancies as well.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Counsell would be leaving the Brewers and that he would join the Cubs. Rosenthal also reported that Counsell would make more than $40MM over five years, though subsequent reports pegged his contract at exactly $40MM. Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel provided the details on the offer from the Brewers.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Craig Counsell David Ross

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The Opener: Rookie Of The Year, KBO, Free Agent Contest

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2023 at 8:47am CDT

Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye out for on Monday…

1. Rookie of the Year winners announced:

Rookie of the Year winners in each league will be announced tonight at 6pm ET. The American League’s three finalists in 2023 include Orioles third baseman/shortstop Gunnar Henderson, Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee and Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas. Henderson, 22, smacked 28 home runs and posted a .255/.325/.489 batting line with 10 steals, 100 runs scored and 82 knocked in. Bibee seized a spot in the Cleveland rotation, making 25 starts and posting a 2.98 ERA, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate over the life of 142 innings. Casas shook off a slow start to finish out the year at .263/.367/.490 with 24 home runs, 21 doubles, 66 runs and 65 RBIs.

In the National League, D-backs outfielder Corbin Carroll, Dodgers outfielder James Outman and Mets righty Kodai Senga are finalists. Carroll erupted with a .285/.362/.506 batting line, 25 home runs and 54 steals. He became the first rookie in MLB history to deliver a 20-50 season. Outman slashed .248/.353/.437 with 23 homers, 16 steals and standout glovework Senga’s 29 starts of 2.98 ERA ball and impressive 29.1% strikeout rate over 166 1/3 innings firmly cemented his role in the Mets’ rotation and more than justified their original five-year, $75MM investment in the former NPB star.

2. Korean Series ends:

The LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization won their first Korean Series title in 29 years over the weekend, bringing an end to the 2023 KBO season. That’ll be significant for MLB fans, as with the KBO season now in the books, it won’t be long before we begin to see traction on the international free agent front. The general expectation is that star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee will be posted for MLB teams, likely some time after Thanksgiving. There could well be other Korean-born players interested in a move to MLB, and there will certainly be plenty of former big leaguers eyeing a return to North American ball.

Former first-round pick and Nationals top prospect Erick Fedde likely headlines that list after pitching to a flat 2.00 ERA with 29.5% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate and 70% ground-ball rate in 180 1/3 innings for the NC Dinos. The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty profiled Fedde’s changes to his pitch repertoire and to his offseason program back in September. On the flipside of things, expect several fringe big leaguers — as Fedde was during his time in MLB — to make the jump to the KBO as they seek both notable seven-figure paydays and perhaps changes of scenery that could improve their stock and pave the road back to a big league roster.

3. MLBTR Free Agent Prediction contest picks due TONIGHT:

This year’s MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest is open through 11pm CT tonight. If you haven’t made your picks yet or want to make some changes to the slate you submitted, you can do so before that time! The contest is free to enter, and the top three finishers will receive cash prizes of $500, $300 and $100, respectively. The top 15 finishers will also receive a free yearlong subscription to our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package, which in addition to ad-free viewing also comes with access to weekly email content, a weekly subscriber-only chat, access to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and more. Once the contest is closed, we’ll launch a leaderboard so you can see how you’re faring both against other entrants and the MLBTR staff! You can read more about the contest here and click here to enter/edit your picks!

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The Opener

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Astros To Promote Joe Espada To Manager’s Job

By Nick Deeds | November 12, 2023 at 11:06pm CDT

The Astros have concluded their managerial search and are expected to promote bench coach Joe Espada to the role, according to reports from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and Jim Bowden of The Athletic. An official press conference to introduce Espada is set for Monday at 11am CT.

Espada, 48, was a second-round pick by the A’s in the 1996 draft and played nine seasons in the minor leagues. While he was selected by the Twins in the 1998 Rule 5 draft, he did not ultimately crack the Opening Day roster in Minnesota and never received a big league opportunity afterward, ending his minor league career with a .275/.363/.343 slash line in 644 career games. After retiring as a player in 2005, he began his coaching career as a member of the Marlins organization in 2006, serving as a minor league hitting coach and infield coordinator before being named the major league third base coach prior to the 2010 season. Espada ultimately spent four seasons in Miami as third base coach. When the Marlins attempted to reassign Espada to manage in the minor leagues following the 2010 season, he departed the organization to become a special assistant in the Yankees’ front office.

Espada returned to coaching in 2015 as third base and infield coach for the Yankees, serving in the role for three years before being hired by the Astros to replace Alex Cora as the club’s bench coach for the 2018 season following Cora’s hire as manager of the Red Sox. Espada has been the club’s bench coach ever since, serving under both A.J. Hinch and Dusty Baker over the past six seasons. During his time as Houston’s bench coach, Espada has regularly been a candidate for managerial positions. The Cubs, Giants, Mets, White Sox, Marlins, and Athletics are all among the clubs Espada interviewed with in recent years, though the job ultimately went to another candidate each time. With Baker having stepped away from managing, however, Espada is finally getting his first shot to manage in the majors.

Though the hiring of Espada as manager hardly constitutes a surprise, the club’s long-time bench coach was not the only candidate consider for the role. The Astros were briefly linked to Craig Counsell prior to him joining the Cubs, while former Tigers and Angels manager Brad Ausmus and third base coach Omar Lopez were among other candidates reportedly considered for the role. Houston owner Jim Crane and adviser Jeff Bagwell were both thought to have “immense say” over the managerial search, though rumors indicated that Brown, in particular, pushed for Espada to take over for Baker in the dugout.

While Espada has no managerial experience at the big league level, he’s far from inexperienced after stints managing clubs in winter leagues as well as coaching in the World Baseball Classic for Team Puerto Rico in both 2013 and 2017 on top of his many seasons serving as bench coach under Hinch and Baker. That deep experience both with the Astros organization and in the dugout should make the transition a smooth one for both Espada and the players in Houston, who won’t have to adjust to a new personality leading the team and clubhouse next season. That continuity figures to be especially valuable to a club that’s cultivating a winning culture in recent years with seven straight ALCS appearances, four AL pennants and two World Series championships over the past seven seasons.

Espada’s first season as manager in Houston won’t be without challenges, however. Key veterans Martin Maldonado and Michael Brantley departed for free agency earlier this month, meaning the club will have to either replace or re-sign the duo behind the plate and in the outfield. Brantley, in particular, figures to be of importance to replace given the club’s lack of left-handed bats to provide balance to the lineup alongside Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. What’s more, the club’s starting rotation features plenty of question marks behind a front three of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier. Though the likes of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia could return from surgery as potential midseason reinforcements, the club currently figures to rely on the likes of Hunter Brown, Jose Urquidy, and J.P. France as potential options to fill out the club’s Opening Day rotation. That trio combined for a 4.64 ERA across 355 innings of work last year.

Despite those potential holes in the roster, there’s also reason for optimism the club will perform better than their 90-win 2023 campaign next year. After all, the club figures to get full seasons out of Verlander, whom they re-acquired in a deadline deal with the Mets this summer, and Jose Altuve, who appeared in just 90 games this season due to injuries. A full season from rookie catcher Yainer Diaz in his sophomore campaign should help bolster the club’s offense by replacing the below-average production of Maldonado’s bat in the everyday lineup, putting the Astros in decent position as they look to fend off the rival Rangers and Mariners for their fourth-consecutive AL West crown.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Joe Espada

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NL Central Notes: Shildt, Brewers, Morel, Keller, Cruz

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2023 at 10:36pm CDT

Mike Shildt is considered one of the favorites to be the Padres’ next manager, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that if San Diego doesn’t make the hire, the Brewers would have interest in Shildt for their own managerial vacancy. Shildt and bench coach Ryan Flaherty are thought to be the two top candidates in San Diego, though there is a bit of fluidity to the situation.  Shildt, Flaherty, and Angels infield coach Benji Gil were thought to be the final three (Carlos Mendoza was also a finalist before he was hired by the Mets) candidates, but the Padres have since interviewed Phil Nevin and also reportedly have some interest in ex-Cubs skipper David Ross.

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes that “Padres are expected to” make their decision on a new manager by the middle of the week, so the Brewers should know soon about Shildt’s availability.  The Brew Crew didn’t want to fully explore other candidates until Craig Counsell had made his decision, but after Counsell shocked the baseball world by supplanting Ross as the Cubs’ dugout boss, the Brewers now have a preliminary candidate list that included six names.  Joe Espada was on the list but has now been hired by the Astros as their new manager, so Shildt’s inclusion might keep the field at six for now.  Milwaukee has plenty of intra-division familiarity with Shildt, as he managed the Cardinals from 2018-21 before joining the Padres in an advisory role.

Some other items from around the NL Central…

  • Christopher Morel has drawn a lot of buzz as a trade candidate this winter, but The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma have some doubts that the Cubs would move Morel for a player who is only under control for the 2024 season.  Morel is controlled through the 2028 season, so Chicago is likelier to explore trades that would see another longer-term asset come back to Wrigleyville, in the event that Morel is moved at all.  The 24-year-old has shown lots of power potential and the athleticism to play multiple positions, though it remains to be seen if Morel is a real defensive plus anywhere on the diamond.  The presence of Nico Hoerner at second base perhaps blocks Morel at an ideal position, though Morel is preparing to add first base to his repertoire and might be an option at the cold corner if the Cubs don’t add a more established first baseman.
  • The Pirates were known to have had some talks with Mitch Keller about a contract extension last May, and while no deal was hammered out, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes that “talks gained traction during the middle of last season, though the up-and-down nature of performance mixed with business led both sides to press pause until the fall or winter.”  Keller had an overall solid 2023 season, but ran into a midseason slump with a 6.28 ERA over five starts in July.  The Bucs also received some trade interest in Keller leading up to the deadline, and while it didn’t seem like a deal was ever likely to happen, it makes sense that the Pirates didn’t want to lock themselves into an extension with Keller just in case another club came along with a blow-away offer.  Speaking with Mackey and other reporters at the GM Meetings, Bucs general manager Ben Cherington called Keller “one of the guys who checks a lot of boxes” and “a guy we would love to see in a Pirates uniform for a long time,” but unsurprisingly didn’t give any information on the status of any ongoing extension negotiations.
  • Cherington did give an update on Oneil Cruz, who might play some winter ball in the Dominican Republic as a way of continuing his recovery from ankle surgery.  Cruz played in only nine games last season due to the April surgery, as continued soreness in his left leg prevented him from returning to action in September.  The good news is that Cruz has been participating in full baseball activities at the Pirates’ training camp, and he’ll be at least getting in some game action at the Pirates’ academy in the Dominican Republic, even if the winter ball assignment doesn’t happen.  Cherington still expects Cruz to be ready to go for Spring Training.
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Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers Notes Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Christopher Morel Mike Shildt Mitch Keller Oneil Cruz

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