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Rays Sign Rob Brantly To Minor League Deal

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The Rays announced Monday that they’ve signed veteran catcher Rob Brantly to a minor league contract and invited him to big league camp in spring training. He’ll compete with fellow non-roster invitee Alex Jackson and any subsequent catching additions for playing time alongside Rene Pinto.

Brantly, 34, has appeared in parts of eight big league seasons but never tallied more than 243 plate appearances in a single MLB campaign. He hasn’t appeared in more than six MLB games in a season since 2017 and didn’t appear in the Majors at all last year, spending 2023 with the Blue Jays’ Triple-A club in Buffalo.

In 456 trips to the plate as a big leaguer, Brantly carries a .225/.287/.326 batting line. He’s also suited up for a whopping 11 Triple-A seasons and delivered a .267/.325/.390 output in more than 2500 plate appearances. Brantly sports a career 29% caught-stealing rate, and Baseball Prospectus has credited him with strong framing marks in the upper minors dating back to 2019.

It still seems quite likely that additional catching help will be brought in by the Rays. Pinto is the only backstop on the team’s 40-man roster at present, and although he’s a talented defender he’s also a 27-year-old with just 188 big league plate appearances and a career .235/.255/.399 batting line in that tiny sample. Brantly is a long shot to crack the Opening Day roster, but he’s an experienced hand who can work with catching prospect Dominic Keegan and the team’s young pitchers in spring training and/or in Triple-A Durham this season.

Rockies Looking For Left-Handed-Hitting Outfielder

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The Rockies deepened their rotation and catching corps late last week with signings of Dakota Hudson and Jacob Stallings, and their next move could be of similar scope in the outfield. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports that the Rox are looking for a “depth outfielder” — ideally someone who can handle all three positions while hitting from the left side of the dish.

As things stand, the Rockies have a largely right-handed outfield mix. Left fielder Nolan Jones bats left handed, but each of Brenton Doyle, Sean Bouchard and Hunter Goodman is right-handed — as are the bulk of the team’s upper-minors options (with the notable exceptions of top organizational prospects Zac Veen and Yanquiel Fernandez, though both are likely more than a year from the Majors still). Colorado re-signed franchise stalwart Charlie Blackmon earlier in the offseason, but he’s expected to reprise his role as the team’s primary designated hitter in 2024.

Adding some outfield depth from the left side makes a good bit of sense then, although the free-agent market is pretty light. It’d be a shock to see the Rockies spend at the levels necessary to sign Cody Bellinger, and the options beyond him aren’t exactly plentiful. Joey Gallo would make an interesting upside play at Coors Field, but his production has been in a free-fall since the 2021 trade sending him from Texas to the Bronx. Travis Jankowski and old friends Raimel Tapia and Rafael Ortega could make sense, with the latter two in particular likely to be available on minor league contracts.

Trade scenarios for this type of player abound. There are too many to list in full, though reasonable on-paper trade partners include the Royals (Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters), Mariners (Cade Marlowe, Taylor Trammell, Zach DeLoach) and Tigers (Akil Baddoo). It’s also possible that the Rox could simply fill the need with a spring waiver claim or deal for an out-of-options player who’s been squeezed out of a roster spot with his current team (e.g. Nick Gordon, Jake Cave).

The extent to which the Rockies can add to their payroll remains unclear. Colorado has added around $9-10MM in salary with the offseason pickups of Hudson ($1.5MM), Stallings ($1.5MM) and Cal Quantrill (projected $6.6MM salary in arbitration, via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). That said, the Rox still appear headed toward a reduced budget for the 2024 season. They didn’t lose much in the way of free agency — lefty Brent Suter being their lone departure of note — but GM Bill Schmidt traded away veterans like C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Brad Hand and Pierce Johnson at the deadline. That group combined to help push Colorado’s 2023 Opening Day payroll to a franchise-record $172MM, but they’re currently about $30MM shy of that total.

Like so many other clubs in MLB at the moment, the Rockies face ample uncertainty regarding their 2024 television broadcasts — and thus, their revenue. AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain, the RSN that previously broadcast the team’s games, is ceasing operations in 2024 (as first reported by Kyle Newman and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post back in September). Saunders reported in a mailbag column over the weekend that MLB may step in to handle the Rockies’ broadcasts in 2024, but there’s yet to be a formal announcement on that matter.

However their broadcast situation plays out, it’s quite likely to adversely impact the team’s revenue. Couple that with the Rockies’ extreme longshot postseason odds, and it’s unsurprising (though surely still frustrating for their fans) that the team has had a rather quiet offseason and instead appears to be focusing on in-house development with an eye toward 2025 and beyond.

Mariners Still Exploring Infield, Bullpen Markets

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It’s been an active two weeks for the Mariners, who’ve recently signed Mitch Garver to a two-year deal and shipped out Robbie Ray and Jose Caballero in trades that brought Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani and Luke Raley back to Seattle. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said this weekend that while his team feels more complete now than at any point this offseason, he’s still open to subsequent additions (link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

More specifically, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Mariners are still hoping to acquire an infielder to make the club less reliant on the uncertain tandem of Luis Urias and Josh Rojas, who are currently projected to start at third base and second base, respectively. Seattle would also like to add a reliever, per Rosenthal, which Dipoto alluded to in his comments to Divish and others.

An infield upgrade is a sensible target for the M’s, given the volatility presented by both Urias and Rojas (and to a lesser extent, first baseman Ty France, who’s coming off a down season). From 2021-22, both Urias (.244/.340/.426, 111 wRC+) and Rojas (.266/.345/.401, 106 wRC+) were above-average performers at the plate, due in no small part to walk rates approaching 11%.

Rojas saw his walk rate drop to 7.7% in 2023, however, as he batted just .240/.303/.338 in 350 plate appearances. Urias maintained his walk rate but watched his hard-hit rate and exit velocity plummet en route to a middling .194/.337/.299 slash in 155 trips to the plate. Both players saw their strikeout rates tick up to near identical marks of 23.2% and 23.1% — slightly higher than league average but also well south of the 30%-plus rates of some names they shipped out in trades.

Both Rojas and Urias come with platoon issues of note, as well. The lefty-swinging Rojas has extremely similar rate stats against lefties and righties, with identical 93 wRC+ marks against each, but his production against lefties is contingent on a .361 average on balls in play that’s not likely to hold up. Rojas has punched out at an ugly 28.3% clip against southpaws compared to a 21% mark against righties and hit for more power when holding the platoon advantage as well (.098 ISO versus lefties, .122 versus righties). It’s the opposite for the right-handed Urias, who’s smacked southpaws at a .276/.353/.442 pace in his career but carries a .219/.326/.365 slash against right-handers.

Rojas and Urias are both capable of playing either second or third base, so there’s a potential platoon setup between the two. Alternatively, if the M’s succeed in adding a second or third baseman and prefer to go with one true starter at the other slot, both Rojas and Urias could profile as a potential utility option off the bench.

Because of the defensive flexibility the current group possesses, the Mariners could look for options at either second base or third base. Dipoto typically operates more on the trade market than on the free-agent market, though both provide myriad avenues to fill the team’s needs. Whit Merrifield stands as the top free agent at second base. The Mariners aren’t going to meet Matt Chapman’s asking price at third base, but Gio Urshela and Justin Turner would represent much more affordable alternatives. Any of that trio would meet the Mariners’ previously stated goal of improving the club’s contact rate (which hasn’t exactly been strictly adhered to, when looking at the acquisition of Raley in particular).

On the trade market, Minnesota’s Jorge Polanco is a natural target who could step in at second base (speculatively speaking, to be clear). The Twins are deep in controllable young infielders and looking to slightly scale back payroll due to the RSN collapse that’s impacting budgets around the league (including the Mariners). The switch-hitting Polanco is earning $10.5MM this season and has a $12MM option for the ’25 campaign. The Reds, Orioles, Cardinals and Guardians are also deep in infield talent and could be intrigued by Seattle’s stock of young arms. That said, Dipoto cast significant doubt on his willingness to move a controllable starting pitcher with his weekend comments.

“We did a lot of groundwork on what it might look like if we did trade one of those young starters, and we never liked the way it looked,” Dipoto said (via Divish). He called retaining his stock of young arms (e.g. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock) “Plan A” this offseason.

Within that same media session, Dipoto maintained an openness to further additions to the roster, speculatively rattling off the possibility of making “a fun addition in the bullpen” or more generally “an upgrade somewhere on the field that we don’t really have.” The Mariners have an imposing late-inning trio of Andres Munoz, Matt Brash and Justin Topa, but they’re relatively light on lefty options — with 28-year-old Gabe Speier and 30-year-old Tayler Saucedo as the only options on the 40-man roster. Both were solid in 2023, but neither had found any real MLB success prior to last season.

Dipoto has said previously that the Mariners’ 2024 payroll could increase over its 2023 levels, although a substantial increase hasn’t looked likely all winter. Ownership has rather clearly placed some fiscal constraints on Dipoto, GM Justin Hollander and the rest of the front office, as they’re among the many teams in the game facing financial uncertainty due to their own RSN situation.

Roster Resource currently projects a payroll of around $132MM for the Mariners, which sits about $8MM shy of last year’s end-of-season mark. Divish writes within his column that the Mariners want to leave some wiggle room for in-season additions, but there’s of course still some room beneath last year’s budget and the possibility that additional trades could further alter the current payroll outlook.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Whether it’s a question about a recent transaction, a future transaction or anything else related to the offseason, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

The Opener: Dodgers, Mariners, Imanaga

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As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. What’s next for the Dodgers?

The Dodgers added a big bat to their lineup yesterday evening, agreeing to sign Teoscar Hernandez to a one-year deal. The addition of Hernandez solidifies their outfield mix of James Outman, Jason Heyward, Manuel Margot, and Chris Taylor, allowing Mookie Betts to stay on the infield dirt on a regular basis headed into the 2024 campaign. The addition of Hernandez takes the club’s luxury tax payroll to just under $303MM, per RosterResource. Now that the club has surpassed the final luxury tax threshold for 2024, could more additions be on the horizon?

While the club’s positional group seems largely set, an addition at shortstop who can provide more certainty than the club’s current tandem of Gavin Lux and Miguel Rojas would certainly make sense. On the pitching side of things, another starter who can slot into the Opening Day rotation could allow the Dodgers to be more careful with their deployment of Walker Buehler in his first full season following his second career Tommy John surgery. Beyond that, the club has yet to make any changes of note to its bullpen mix, and longtime franchise stalwart Clayton Kershaw remains unsigned, though the veteran lefty won’t return to the mound until sometime this summer following shoulder surgery earlier this winter.

2. Will the Mariners continue retooling their roster?

The Mariners have altered the look of their lineup this winter after beginning the offseason with a focus on improving the club’s contact skills. By parting ways with Hernandez, Mike Ford, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic, Seattle made room for the additions of Luke Raley, Mitch Haniger, Luis Urias, and Mitch Garver while also shedding the remaining years on underwater contracts for Evan White and Robbie Ray.

The club’s corner outfield duo of Raley and Haniger sport question marks, however, as does the infield duo of Urias and Josh Rojas. Raley got off to a strong start in 2023 but petered out to slash just .200/.270/.380 over the season’s final two months. Meanwhile, Haniger posted a wRC+ of just 73 last year and has gotten into just 118 games across the past two seasons. On the infield, Urias and Rojas both appear to be best served in platoon roles. The addition of an infielder capable of playing everyday and perhaps another part-time outfielder would go a long way to rounding out the club’s offense, but the Mariners have seeming operated on a tight budget this winter. Do they have room for additional finishing touches?

3. The clock is ticking on Imanaga:

Left-hander Shota Imanaga, ranked No. 10 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, is entering the final stretch of his window to sign with MLB clubs after being posted by his NPB team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. Imanaga’s posting window will come to a close on Thursday, meaning just four days remain for the southpaw to sign with a big league club. There’s little question about whether he’ll be able to find a team given the interest he’s received from teams like the Giants, Red Sox, and Cubs this winter.

That being said, it remains up in the air not only which club the lefty will ultimately sign with, but what sort of guarantee he’ll land. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM deal for Imanaga this winter, but reports last month indicated his market could be pushing toward a $100MM guarantee. Will Imanaga secure a nine-figure deal in the coming days? Any deal a club signs with Imanaga would come with an additional posting fee for the BayStars, which could cost around $16.9MM if Imanaga does land a $100MM deal before his posting window comes to a close.

Dodgers Sign Teoscar Hernandez

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The Dodgers have continued their free agent spending spree, announcing a one-year, $23.5MM deal with outfielder Teoscar Hernandez.  Only $15MM of that salary will be paid to Hernandez this year, as the rest is deferred and will be paid out in installments from 2030-39.  Hernandez is represented by Republik Sports.

Reports about the Dodgers’ interest in Hernandez surfaced soon after the free agent market opened back in early November, and L.A. maintained that interest all the way up until today’s agreement.  The Dodgers were known to be still be looking for a right-handed bat, and they’ve now addressed that need in a big way with a former All-Star and Silver Slugger who has hit 147 home runs over 3002 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season.

After a string of productive years with the Blue Jays, Hernandez was dealt for Erik Swanson and Adam Macko last offseason, and Hernandez’s move to Seattle resulted in a downturn in his production.  While he still went yard 26 times, Hernandez batted only .258/.305/.435 over 678 plate appearances, and his 105 wRC+ was well below his 133 wRC+ from 2020-22.  Since Hernandez’s underlying metrics were largely the same as his career norms, it seems possible that the biggest culprit was simply T-Mobile Park.  Hernandez hit only .217/.263/.380 in the Mariners’ home ballpark last season, as opposed to a much stronger .295/.344/.486 slash line on the road.

While Dodger Stadium has something of a pitcher-friendly reputation itself, it stands to reason that the 31-year-old Hernandez might get back on track in a new environment, and this one-year deal might reflect his desire to re-establish himself before committing to a longer-term contract.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Hernandez 12th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a four-year, $80MM deal, under the logic that the offseason’s lack of premium bats would still lead to a big contract for Hernandez even in the wake of an underwhelming 2023 campaign.

It could also be the case that Hernandez was open to a one-year pact specifically to join the Dodgers, as the outfielder is now joining arguably baseball’s most loaded lineup.  Los Angeles already racked up plenty of runs in their 100-win 2023 campaign, and that powerful collection of position players has now added Shohei Ohtani to the DH spot and Hernandez to a corner outfield role.

Hernandez now gets to join a contender and possibly win a World Series ring, while ideally posting a better platform year that would allow him to score a big multi-year contract next winter.  The Angels and Red Sox were two other teams known to be in the running for Hernandez’s services, and reporter Francys Romero and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X links) each relayed that those teams had interest in the outfielder on two-year deals.  In Boston’s case, Cotillo wrote that the Sox were interested in something akin to a two-year, $28MM pact.

Hernandez now looks to be the Dodgers’ everyday option primarily in left field, though he could slide over to right field when a left-hander is on the mound (thus sending Jason Heyward to the bench).  L.A. is still perhaps a little unbalanced with left-handed hitters in its first-choice lineup, yet Hernandez now joins Mookie Betts and Will Smith as big righty swingers, plus the Dodgers have other right-handed bats in Chris Taylor, Manuel Margot, and Miguel Rojas available off the bench.

Margot was also recently acquired as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade with the Rays but is known more for his defense than his bat.  Taylor can fill in at multiple positions, and his hitting also became a question mark after a down year in 2022, though he did bounce back with a 104 wRC+ over 384 PA last season.  Having Taylor as a supersub around the diamond is perhaps a better use for his skillset than a regular spot in left field, even if defensive metrics have been mixed at best about Hernandez’s outfield glovework during his career.

Hernandez has never drawn many walks during his career, and his high strikeout totals add even more swing-and-miss to a team that already saw Taylor, James Outman, Max Muncy, and even Ohtani rank well below the league average in strikeout rate in 2023.  Still, the relative lack of contact is something of a minor flaw compared to the huge upside provided by the Dodgers’ overall offensive attack.

The deferred money will lower the luxury tax number on Hernandez’s $23.5MM salary, but his signing represents yet another big expenditure for a Los Angeles team that has basically lapped the rest of the league combined in offseason spending.  Led by Ohtani’s $700MM deal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract, the Dodgers have now spent slightly under $1.067 billion on free agents alone this winter, to say nothing of the extra money taken on when L.A. acquired and then extended Glasnow.  As per Roster Resource, the Dodgers’ tax number for 2024 now sits at roughly $302.32MM, well over the Competitive Balance Tax’s highest penalty threshold of $297MM.

Even with the luxury tax bill continuing to escalate, there is little reason to think L.A. is done making moves, as starting pitching continues to be a need even after adding Yamamoto and Glasnow.  More signings obviously can’t be ruled out, or the Dodgers could move more young talent in other trades for another starter.  The sky is basically the limit for Los Angeles at this point, as the Dodgers have outpaced even their usual high-spending ways (with the many deferrals kicking the financial can down the road to some extent) in building a veritable superteam with Ohtani, Betts, Yamamoto, and Freddie Freeman among the cornerstones.

Reporter Moises Fabian (via X) was first with the news that Hernandez had signed with Los Angeles, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X links) reported details about the one-year term, the salary, and the deferred money.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mets Sign Harrison Bader

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TODAY: Bader’s $10.5MM guarantee breaks down as a $1MM signing bonus and a $9.5MM salary in 2024, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link).  Up to $350K in incentive bonuses is also available.
JANUARY 5: The Mets have officially announced that they have signed Bader.

JANUARY 4: The Mets are signing Harrison Bader, reports Andy Martino of SNY. It’s a one-year deal worth approximately $10MM, per Martino. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports the salary as $10.5MM for the Vayner Sports client.

Bader, 30 in June, is an elite defensive outfielder who has had mixed results as a hitter and has also struggled to stay consistently healthy. Since his debut in 2017, he has racked up 52 Defensive Runs Saved, 68 Outs Above Average and a grade of 46.6 from Ultimate Zone Rating. All three of those figures place him in the top 10 among all outfielders in the league in that time. He’s also stolen 77 bases in 95 tries.

The offensive side of his game is less impressive, however. He’s hit .243/.310/.396 in his career for a wRC+ of 92, indicating he’s been 8% below league average overall. He has been above average at times, posting a wRC+ of 107 in 2018 and a 108 in 2021, but the past two years have been rough. He split 2022 between the Cardinals and Yankees, getting flipped for Jordan Montgomery at the deadline. He finished that year with a batting line of .250/.294/.356 and a wRC+ of just 85. His production fell even further in 2023, as he hit .232/.274/.348 on the year for a wRC+ of 70, going to the Reds late in the year as the Yankees looked to dump salary by putting Bader on waivers.

Health has also been a concern in each of the past three seasons, with Bader getting into 287 games over that stretch, never getting into more than 103 in any of those seasons individually. Those past three seasons have seen him hit the injured list due to a right rib hairline fracture, right foot plantar fasciitis, a left oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and a right groin strain.

The Mets have been planning for 2024 to be a sort of transition year, signing players to modest deals and making other depth moves as new president of baseball operations David Stearns evaluates the organization before likely ramping up aggressiveness next winter. Luis Severino, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin have all joined the roster via one-year pacts, while the club also acquired Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor from the Brewers. They have claimed Penn Murfee, Zack Short, Tyler Heineman and Cooper Hummel off waivers and given out a number of minor league deals.

Bader will fit into that strategy while bolstering the outfield mix. His strong defense will allow Brandon Nimmo, whose defensive grades dipped in 2023, to spend a bit more time in a corner. Bader also has notable platoon splits, which could perhaps allow the Mets to deploy him selectively. He has hit .262/.330/.494 against lefties in his career for a wRC+ of 121, but .236/.304/.364 against righties for a wRC+ of 82. Nimmo hits from the left side but also fares well against pitchers of either handedness. DJ Stewart is a lefty hitter who mashes righties and is a poor defender to boot, meaning he and Bader could nicely augment each other’s weaknesses.

The outfield picture now includes Bader, Nimmo, Stewart, Taylor and Starling Marte. Nimmo and Marte have injury histories of their own, so perhaps the Mets will use the designated hitter slot to give out occasional rest days and keep everyone healthy over the course of the season.

MLBTR predicted Bader for a two-year, $20MM deal, perhaps with an opt out that would allow him to return to the open market with a better offensive platform. Instead, he lands a straight one-year pact at roughly the same average annual value. The one-year, $10.5MM framework is the exact same as the deal between Kevin Kiermaier, another glove-first outfielder, and the Blue Jays.

Despite the relatively modest offseason, the Mets are still way into competitive balance tax territory. Roster Resource has their CBT figure at $307MM, north of the fourth and final bracket of $297MM. As a third-time payor, they are set to pay a 110% tax on any spending above that line, meaning they could end up paying over $20MM for one year of Bader’s services. However, the tax payments aren’t calculated until the end of the year. If the Mets don’t find themselves in contention this summer, they could move some salary by trading players such as Pete Alonso or José Quintana and alter their final tax status.

Yankees Interested In Jesus Luzardo, Shane Bieber

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Earlier reports suggested that the Yankees were talking with the Marlins about their starting pitching, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds some specifics by writing that New York is interested in left-hander Jesus Luzardo.  In addition, the Yankees have also checked in the Guardians about righty Shane Bieber, Nightengale adds.

These two pitchers represent the wide range of options the Bronx Bombers are considering are they seek out rotation help.  Luzardo would be a longer-term add, as the 26-year-old is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season and is only arb-eligible (projected for a $5.9MM salary) for the first time this winter.  Bieber is projected to earn $12.2MM in 2024, which is slated to be his final season before free agency.  Though Bieber is reportedly open to signing an extension with his new team in the event of a trade, that probably won’t be an option with the Yankees in particular, since New York so rarely breaks its unofficial team rule about offering contract extensions.

Because Cleveland almost always moves its higher-paid players prior to free agency, Bieber has been rumored as a trade candidate for years, and that speculation has been peaking now that he is entering his final year of team control.  The Guardians have already dealt one veteran pitcher in Cal Quantrill this offseason, and given the talented by generally inexperienced nature of the rest of Cleveland’s rotation, the Guards could potentially opt to hang onto Bieber to further bolster its own pitching staff.  There’s also the fact that Bieber pitched only 128 innings in 2023 due to elbow inflammation, and his numbers were only good (3.80 ERA) rather than the elite form he showed earlier in his career.

As much as Bieber could help the Guardians, however, it seems likely that the team wouldn’t hesitate to move a pitcher who might not be a part of their future in exchange for a longer-term asset.  Whether or not the Yankees might match up well with the Guardians is another matter, as New York already dealt away a good chunk of their younger pitching assets in the Juan Soto deal, and the Yankees’ young infield depth might not hold as much appeal to a Cleveland team that already has plenty of young infielders.

Naturally the Bombers aren’t going to have much interest in dealing top minor league talent for just a year of Bieber’s services, yet they could be willing to explore such a move for three years of Luzardo.  The left-hander is coming off his first full and healthy season as a starting pitcher, and the results were impressive — Luzardo posted a 3.58 ERA over 178 2/3 innings, with solidly above-average strikeout and walk rates.

As noted by MLBTR’s Nick Deeds earlier today, Oswald Peraza might have a clear appeal to the shortstop-needy Marlins, but it would take more just Peraza to pry Luzardo away from South Florida.  It’s fair to assume that any number of teams have at least floated the idea of a Luzardo trade with the Marlins, and a demand of multiple top-100 prospects seems like a reasonable ask for Miami given Luzardo’s age, ability, and three years of control.

Unlike with Bieber and the Guardians, there is no ticking clock on Luzardo’s time in Miami, so president of baseball operations Peter Bendix would probably have to be bowled over by an offer to move the left-hander.  The Marlins might well look to move a starter for hitting help, yet any of Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, or even Braxton Garrett could be likelier trade candidates than Luzardo.  With Sandy Alcantara missing 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, Luzardo and Eury Perez are lined up as the cornerstones of the talented Miami rotation.

Free Agent Faceoff: Aroldis Chapman/Matt Moore

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The market for pure relievers has been deathly slow this winter. Since free agency opened in early November, just four full-time relievers have signed multi-year contracts this winter: right-handers Chris Stratton and Emilio Pagan signed on with the Royals and Reds, respectively, while both NPB lefty Yuki Matsui and KBO righty Woo Suk Go recently agreed to deals with the Padres. While the likes of Nick Martinez, Reynaldo Lopez, and (most recently) Sean Manaea have all signed multi-year pacts this offseason as well, each of that trio has started games in the past and figures to have at least a chance of earning a rotation spot entering Spring Training.

There’s little question who the top dog available in free agency this offseason is in terms of relief pitching. Southpaw Josh Hader has been in the conversation for best reliever in baseball practically since his debut back in 2017 and is coming off an incredible platform season where he posted a 1.28 ERA in 56 1/3 innings of work while collecting 33 saves and striking out 36.8% of batters faced. Behind him, the best available bullpen arms largely appear to be right-handed. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently discussed the pros and cons of two of the winter’s best righty relievers, Robert Stephenson and Jordan Hicks. What of the left-handed relief market? With Hader in a league of his own, the next tier of southpaw free agent arms features two dominant back-end veterans in their mid-thirties: Aroldis Chapman and Matt Moore.

The two could hardly have had more different career paths leading them to this point. Chapman may be the most well-recognized reliever in the game today, as the veteran fireballer made seven All Star appearances between 2012 and 2021, pitching to an incredible 2.25 ERA and 2.13 FIP in 540 1/3 innings of work and racking up 305 saves across that ten-year span while pitching for the Reds, Yankees, and Cubs. During that time, Chapman’s fastball routinely topped 100 mph and averaged 99.5 mph while maxing out at over 105 mph. That velocity made him one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the game, particularly at the time of his debut back in 2010.

Over time, however, signs of decline became evident in Chapman’s profile. After pitching just 11 2/3 innings during the shortened 2020 season, 2021 saw the flamethrower post a career-worst 3.99 FIP thanks to a 15.6% strikeout rate that was his highest since his first full season in the majors back in 2011. While Chapman managed to pitch through those red flags to rack up 30 saves and post a solid 3.36 ERA, the wheels came off more noticeably for the left-hander during 2022, his final season in New York. Chapman posted the worst average fastball velocity of his career that season, averaging “just” 97.5 mph on his heater. His already elevated walk rate also continued to climb, reaching 17.5%. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate plummeted to just 26.9%, by far the worst of his career. Chapman’s 4.46 ERA and 4.57 FIP were also career worsts, and his career with the Yankees ended inauspiciously as he was left off the club’s ALDS roster after skipping a team workout.

Chapman’s struggles left him to sign a modest one-year deal with the Royals in free agency last winter in hopes of recouping his value. The lefty did well for himself in that regard as his average fastball velocity climbed back up to 99.1 mph, the highest it had been since his age-29 season back in 2017. With the improved velocity came renewed success, as Chapman struck out a whopping 41.4% of batters faced while posting a 3.09 ERA and 2.52 FIP in 58 1/3 innings of work for the Royals and Rangers. While Chapman’s 14.5% walk rate will surely raise some eyebrows, if he can continue striking out batters at elite rates he should be able to pitch around the additional traffic on the basepaths.

Moore, by contrast, was once considered the very top prospect in all of baseball and in the early years of his career with the Rays appeared to be a burgeoning star. Tommy John surgery in 2014 got in the way of Moore’s ascension, however, and the left-hander was never the same pitcher upon returning to the mound. He scuffled as a fringe rotation option for years, bouncing between the Rays, Giants, Rangers, and Tigers before heading to Japan during the 2020 campaign to try and revitalize his career overseas. Moore excelled with a 2.65 ERA in 85 innings for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukoka Softbanks Hawks in 2020 and returned stateside as a swingman for the Phillies in 2021, though he had another difficult season as he struggled to a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings of work.

That rough performance lead Moore to take a minor league contract with the Rangers, but upon converting to relief full time the lefty quickly made his way not only into the big league bullpen, but into a late-inning role with the club. In 74 innings of work across 63 relief appearances for the Rangers in 2022, Moore dominated to a 1.95 ERA with a 2.98 FIP and a 27.3% strikeout rate paired with a strong 43.9% groundball rate. Despite that dominance, Moore’s long track record of struggles prior to the 2022 campaign, his elevated 12.5% walk rate, and a minuscule 4.2% home run rate on fly balls likely caused concern among potential suitors in free agency, leaving him to settle for a one-year deal with the Angels last winter.

Fortunately for Moore, his performance in 2023 largely backed up his newfound role as a quality back-end relief arm and answered those questions regarding sustainability. Though time on the injured list limited the left-hander to just 50 appearances last year, he posted a strong 2.56 ERA and saw his strikeout rate tick up to 27.5% while his walk rate plummeted to a greatly-improved 6.9%. He found that success in spite of the fact that his groundball rate dipped to a career-low 35% and a whopping 11.3% of his fly balls left the yard for home runs last season.

Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that Moore found this success while being shuffled between three teams late in the season. The Angels placed him on waivers in August, where he was claimed by the Guardians, who then promptly waived him for a second time before he was claimed by the Marlins to contribute to their playoff push in the season’s final week. Taken together, Moore sports a sterling 2.20 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 126 2/3 innings dating back to the start of the 2022 season. That ERA is good for ninth among all relievers with at least 100 innings of work across the past two seasons, ahead of elite closers like David Bednar and Emmanuel Clase and just behind the likes of Jhoan Duran and Brusdar Graterol.

Relievers always come with risk involved, and that’s especially so for this pair of southpaws. Both players have had significant ups and downs over the past three seasons, and while each figures to fill the same late-inning bullpen role they vastly different pros and cons. Chapman has the name recognition and track record as a longtime closer, and is still capable of elite velocity as shown by his dominant performance in 2023. With that being said, 2022 showed just how far things can go off the rails for the lefty if he loses even a tick or two of that elite velocity, and his 15.6% walk rate since the start of the 2021 campaign seems unlikely to go down much at this stage of his career.

By contrast, Moore is anything but a known commodity given his rollercoaster history as a former top prospect and longtime journeyman starting pitcher who has only recently broken out as a dominant reliever. He lacks the premium velocity Chapman offers, having average 94 mph on his heater in each of the past two seasons, but has been among the very best relievers in baseball the past two seasons and has shown the ability to improve around the margins of his profile by cutting his walk rate nearly in half this past season. Also of note is that Moore, who will celebrate his 35th birthday in June, is nearly a year and a half younger than Chapman, who turns 36 next month.

Which southpaw would MLBTR readers rather have on their team in 2024? Do you feel Chapman’s lengthy track record and high-end velocity is too valuable to pass up, or do you prefer Moore’s recent dominance and stronger command?

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