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Orioles Sign Ryan Helsley

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The Orioles have signed right-hander Ryan Helsley to a two-year contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.  The deal will pay Helsley $28MM in total, as per The Athletic’s Katie Woo.  Helsley can opt out of the contract following the 2026 season, and the deal will be finalized once he passes a physical.  Helsley is represented by Wasserman.

Felix Bautista underwent shoulder surgery last August that will keep the closer on the injured list until at least August 2026, and that timeline means one setback could sideline Bautista for the entirety of the 2026 campaign.  As a result, the Orioles headed into the offseason looking for multiple bullpen additions, including a pitcher with past experience as a closer.

More to come…

Phillies, Kyle Schwarber Currently “Not Close To A Deal”

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There has been plenty of mutual interest between the Phillies and Kyle Schwarber, leading to a sense around the league (and among MLBTR’s staff) that Schwarber’s free agent path will ultimately lead him back to the City of Brotherly Love.  It doesn’t appear, however, that a reunion is imminent, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki wrote earlier this week that the two sides “are not close to a deal.”

Zolecki didn’t specify if there has been any standstill in talks, or if there is a sizable gap between the two sides in terms of money or contract length.  By that same measure, there’s also nothing to indicate that talks couldn’t heat up with a single phone call.  All in all, the news shouldn’t be construed as a sign that Schwarber won’t eventually return, or that either party is favoring another option.

It has only been a little over three weeks since free agents have been allowed to negotiate with other teams, and most of the top names on the market are still testing the waters.  A couple of the most prominent early signings (Josh Naylor to the Mariners, Raisel Iglesias to the Braves) did involve players quickly opting to re-up with their former teams, which perhaps raised hopes among Philadelphia fans that a new deal with Schwarber might also resolved in rapid fashion.  A little over two years ago, Aaron Nola entered free agency but then worked out his seven-year, $172MM deal with the Phillies within just a couple of weeks of the market opening.

As Zolecki simply puts it, “there’s no reason to rush it” for Schwarber’s camp at this point, given how much interest the slugger is generating in the wake of his 56-homer season.  The Red Sox, Orioles, and (surprisingly) the Pirates have all been publicly linked to Schwarber’s market thus far, plus the Reds have been mentioned as a speculative contender since they need hitting help and Schwarber is from the Cincinnati area.  DH-only players entering their age-33 seasons don’t usually command the kind of attention Schwarber is garnering, but then again, Schwarber’s career year is just one of 23 seasons of 56+ home runs in baseball history.

The fact that Schwarber is essentially the Phillies’ top priority (give or take J.T. Realmuto) gives the slugger added leverage.  He and his agents can likely afford to wait and see what other offers emerge, with the comfort of knowing that Philadelphia might well match or top whatever rival offer is put on the table.  From the Phillies’ perspective, they will likely wait on Schwarber before proceeding with any other major offseason business, apart from matters that wouldn’t be impacted by Schwarber staying or leaving — i.e. negotiating with Realmuto, trying to trade Nick Castellanos, or perhaps looking for bullpen help.

There’s some risk for the Phillies in that if Schwarber signed elsewhere after taking several more weeks, the Phils could be left behind in their offseason shopping if other free agents have already left the market.  That said, rival agents are also aware of this scenario, and could advise their clients to wait on their own decisions just in case a Schwarber-less Phillies team suddenly broadens its free agent horizons.

Nationals Hire Grant Anders To Coaching Staff

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The Nationals have hired Grant Anders for a role as a Major League development coach and bullpen catcher, according to the Washington Post’s Spencer Nusbaum.  Anders stays in the Beltway after two years on the Orioles’ coaching staff in a similar role as a development coach.

Reports emerged a few weeks ago that Anders wouldn’t be returning to Baltimore, as the hiring of new manager Craig Albernaz naturally brought several changes to the coaching ranks.  Anders had been with the O’s since November 2019, working as a development coach in the minors before his promotion to the big league staff prior to the 2024 season.

As outlined by reporter Jon Meoli during Spring Training 2022 (hat tip to Nusbaum for the link), the development coach role is something of an analytically-driven version of a traditional coaching job.  “They must be competent enough on the field to coach and help players improve, yet deft enough with data and technology to be the affiliate’s in-house analytics expert,” Meoli wrote.  This applied to Anders’ background when he broke into baseball at Radford University, and he moved onto internship and trainee roles with the Royals and Reds before being hired by the Orioles.

New Nationals president of baseball operations Paul Toboni has made a point of younger hires and modern perspectives into his overhaul of Washington’s front office and on-field staff.  Toboni (who is himself only 35 years old) has hired 33-year-old Blake Butera as the Nats’ new manager and 30-year-old Simon Matthews as pitching coach, with bench coach Michael Johns as the relative graybeard of the group at age 50.  This group will now try to turn around a Nationals club that has struggled through six straight losing seasons, and Anders has some experience due to his work in helping the Orioles get through their rebuild period.

AL East Notes: Bellinger, Tucker, Maton, Campbell

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As usual, the Yankees have been linked to many of the top names on the free agent market, with Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger noted as two of the more prominent players on New York’s radar.  How exactly the front office is ordering their internal wish list remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Tucker “appears to be a backup plan” to Bellinger.  Familiarity and defensive flexibility are the key elements, as Heyman notes that the Yankees already know Bellinger can handle playing in the pressurized environment of the Bronx.  Tucker is primarily a right fielder who would have to move over to left field in New York due to Aaron Judge’s presence, while Bellinger brings more defensive utility as a player capable of playing all three outfield positions and first base.

It can also be assumed that the Yankees would prefer paying Bellinger’s lower price tag  — MLBTR projects Tucker to land an 11-year, $400MM deal, whereas Bellinger is projected for a relatively more modest $140MM over five years.  Signing Tucker would also cost the Yankees draft picks and international bonus money, whereas those qualifying offer-related penalties don’t apply if Bellinger is re-signed.

Here’s some more from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays had interest in Phil Maton before the veteran reliever signed with the Cubs, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports.  This tracks with the Jays’ previous interest in the righty, as Toronto was previously linked to Maton when he was a free agent last winter and at the trade deadline before Maton was dealt from the Cardinals to the Rangers.  Toronto is known to be looking for a reliever to supplement or even replace Jeff Hoffman in the closer’s role, but Maton also would’ve been a good addition as a bullpen workhorse who has shown an ability to handle higher-leverage work in the past.
  • Kristian Campbell will be playing winter ball, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports, as the Red Sox continue to look to get Campbell on track after a shaky debut season in the majors.  A meteoric rise in his first two pro seasons earned Campbell a spot on Boston’s Opening Day and an eight-year, $60MM extension shortly thereafter, but he hit only .223/.319/.345 over 263 plate appearances as pitchers adjusted quickly to Campbell after his hot start.  Demoted to Triple-A Worcester in June, Campbell hit decently well at Triple-A but with little power, and he also was toggled around the diamond seeing time at first base, second base, and all three outfield positions.  Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told Speier and other reporters earlier in November that Campbell was focused on regaining some weight and becoming stronger to better handle the grind of a full season.  The pricey contract along will keep Campbell involved in Boston’s plans, though it remains to be seen how he’ll fit into a 2026 team that has a crowded outfield, and has been linked to multiple major free agent infielders.

Latest On The Red Sox Search For Position Players

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With Sonny Gray now in the rotation, the expectation is that the Red Sox will now move onto adding a prominent bat as the next item on their to-do list, with such major names as Pete Alonso, J.T. Realmuto, Kazuma Okamoto, and former Boston players Alex Bregman and Kyle Schwarber linked to the team.  Reports indicate that the Sox might try to acquire more than one player from that group, but Alex Speier of the Boston Globe also lays out a different path.  According to sources, Speier writes that the Red Sox are considering adding not necessarily two top-tier stars, but rather a bigger name and then “an additional complementary position player.”

Speier cites Jorge Polanco as a model for this type of addition, so it would seem like the idea is still to add a prominent everyday bat rather than a true platoon type, for instance.  But, someone like Polanco wouldn’t be as expensive as the other free agent targets, and an older player (Polanco turned 32 last July) on a shorter-term contract might have more appeal for a Boston team deep in younger position players.

For instance, if the Red Sox signed Alonso and Polanco, they’d have first base covered with Alonso, Trevor Story returning at shortstop, Polanco toggling between second and third base, and Marcelo Mayer able to gain playing time at whichever position Polanco wasn’t playing.  Re-signing Bregman would create an infield alignment of Bregman at third base, Story at shortstop, Mayer probably as the primary second baseman, and Polanco perhaps getting some time at first base.  Polanco has all of one career MLB game as a first baseman, but as injuries limited his on-field time in 2025, a shift over to first base duty makes sense for Polanco as he gets deeper into his career.

In short, there are plenty of approaches the Red Sox can take, as right now Story seems to be the only infielder truly locked into a regular role heading into 2026.  Triston Casas is penciled in at first base but has been often mentioned as a trade candidate, Mayer is a top prospect who is still unproven at the big league level, and any number of players (i.e. Ceddanne Rafaela, Romy Gonzalez, Kristian Campbell, David Hamilton) could factor into the infield picture as well.  If not Polanco himself, another multi-position infielder in that mold would help the Red Sox juggle the playing time situation.

While more rotation moves might yet be in the offing, acquiring Gray relatively early in the offseason gives the Red Sox some measure of relief in knowing that at least one frontline arm is in the fold, giving the club more flexibility in broadly assessing its options on the position-player front.  Budget-wise or luxury tax-wise, there is nothing necessarily preventing Boston from making multiple splashes in free agency, but one big-ticket signing and another more modest signing would probably be preferable from a payroll perspective.

Rays Prospect Xavier Isaac “Fully Recovered” After Brain Surgery

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Rays outfield prospect Xavier Isaac was limited to 41 Double-A games in 2025, and he didn’t play after June 25 due to what was thought to be a continuation of the wrist and elbow injuries that hampered him earlier in the season.  However, Isaac revealed in an Instagram post that he actually underwent a “life saving” brain surgery on July 3, following a routine brain scan for what seemed to be just a dehydration issue.  The specific nature of the surgery wasn’t detailed, and Isaac asked the Rays to keep news of the procedure private.

Fortunately, Isaac said he has “fully recovered” and is ready to resume his career.  MLB.com’s Adam Berry writes that Isaac “is expected to be ready for Spring Training,” and that some on-field work has already begun since Isaac took part in a hitting camp along with other Tampa Bay prospects.

Selected with the 29th overall pick of the 2022 draft, Isaac has hit .262/.378/.489 with 46 home runs over 1064 plate appearances in pro baseball.  Isaac cracked the Double-A level for the first time in 2024 and was still had an .812 OPS over 175 PA with the Montgomery affiliate in 2025 before his season was abruptly ended, even though he struck out in 52 of those 175 trips to the plate.

Isaac has drawn top-100 attention from multiple outlets over the last two seasons, with MLB Pipeline the most bullish by ranking Isaac as the 51st-best prospect in baseball heading into the 2025 season.  While his 2025 numbers are hard to really evaluate due to both his injuries and lack of playing time, Isaac’s ability to make consistent contact was a question mark for pundits even prior to this year.  Isaac has plenty of power and exit velocity when he’s able to make contact and get the ball into the air, but he’ll need to do this on a more consistent basis in order to keep making his way up the minor league ladder.

Of course, the higher priority right now is just that Isaac (who turns 22 in December) is healthy following what he described as “the scariest moment of my life.”  Isaac gave thanks to his loved ones, the Rays, and the Duke University Medical team for helping him through the ordeal, and said that he now has “a new purpose, a new fire, and a heart full of gratitude” as he returns to action.

“This comeback isn’t just about baseball — it’s about life.  Every day.  Every breath.  Every swing.  Here’s to recovery, resilience, and the next chapter,” Isaac wrote.

Looking At The Mariners’ Internal Infield Options

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At the end of the 2025 season, the Mariners lost three infielders to free agency, as each of Josh Naylor, Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez hit the open market. That left shortstop J.P. Crawford as the only lock for the 2026 infield. The M’s quickly pounced to bring Naylor back, signing the first baseman to a five-year, $92.5MM deal not long after free agency began.

Reuniting with Polanco and/or Suárez still seems to be on the table but second and third base are open for now. What options do the Mariners have in the system at present? Let’s take a look at the possibilities.

Cole Young

Young is a former first-round pick, with the M’s taking him 21st overall in 2022. He came into 2025 as a consensus top 100 prospect. He was promoted to the big leagues at the end of May and primarily played second base. He eventually took 257 trips to the plate but produced a tepid .211/.302/.305 line, which translates to a wRC+ of 80.

That’s obviously less than ideal but there are some reasons for optimism. Young’s 10.9% walk rate and 18.3% strikeout rate were both strong. His .247 batting average on balls in play was more than 40 points below league average. His average exit velocity of 87.6 miles per hour was subpar but his max exit velo of 114.1 mph was in the top 10% of major league hitters. Perhaps he can tap into that premium velo a bit more as he gets more exposed to big league pitching. He hit .277/.392/.461 for a 120 wRC+ in Triple-A prior to his promotion, so perhaps his uninspiring major league debut was just a blip.

Colt Emerson

One year after taking Young, the M’s were selecting one pick later in the first round. They used the 22nd overall pick in 2023 to grab Emerson. He had a big rise in 2025, playing 90 games in High-A, followed by 34 in Double-A and six in Triple-A. Between those three levels, he took 600 trips to the plate and slashed .285/.383/.458 for a 129 wRC+. He also stole 14 bases while primarily playing shortstop, plus a few games at third.

Emerson is now a consensus top 15 prospect in the whole league. His Triple-A experience is still minimal and he’s only 20 years old but the Mariners would presumably have at least some willingness to carry him on the Opening Day roster. MLB teams are generally more willing to do that with top prospects these days because of the PPI benefits. The M’s carried 21-year-old Julio Rodríguez on their roster throughout 2022. When he won Rookie of the Year, that netted the M’s an extra pick in 2023. That allowed them to select outfielder Jonny Farmelo just seven picks after taking Emerson.

The M’s presumably won’t just hand a job to Emerson. He will have to earn it in spring. Theoretically, he could take over third base in 2026. Crawford is slated to be a free agent a year from now, at which point Emerson could potentially move over to short. It’s also possible that Felnin Celesten is more of a factor by then. Celesten is considered a better shortstop defender than Emerson but he hasn’t reached Double-A yet.

Ryan Bliss

Bliss was a second-round pick of the Diamondbacks who came to the Mariners in the 2023 deadline deal which sent Paul Sewald to the desert. His 2025 season was marred by injury. First, a torn left biceps required surgery in April. He began a rehab assignment in August but then suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee. Due to that missed time, he has a .214/.287/.367 line in just 110 big league plate appearances over the past two seasons.

His minor league track record is naturally better than that. Bliss has 739 Triple-A plate appearances with a .260/.365/.453 line and 105 wRC+. He’s also huge threat on the bases with at least 50 steals in the minors in both 2023 and 2024. He has lots of minor league experience at both middle infield positions. He never had the same prospect hype as Young or Emerson but the speed and defense could make him a valuable player with even league average offense.

Ben Williamson

Williamson was a second-round pick in 2023. He generally put up good minor league numbers but with a pesky contact-based approach and very little power. He got into 85 big league games this year and hit .253/.294/.310 for a wRC+ of 76. There could be more in the bat but Williamson is lauded more for his glovework. Statcast only had him as average in the field this year but he was credited with eight Defensive Runs Saved.

Michael Arroyo

Arroyo, 21, was an international signing out of Colombia and is now a consensus Top 100 prospect. In 2025, he got into 65 High-A games and 56 Double-A contests. Between those two levels, he slashed .262/.401/.433 for a wRC+ of 139. He has a bit of experience at third base and shortstop but was kept exclusively at second base in 2025. Since he hasn’t yet played at the Triple-A level, it’s probably a bit of a reach for him to crack the Opening Day roster, but he might have an outside chance. Even if Opening Day is out of the question, a midseason promotion would be a possibility.

Leo Rivas/Miles Mastrobuoni/Samad Taylor

These three are more in the part-time or utility bucket. Rivas can draw walks but has little power. He can play the three infield spots to the left of first base as well as the outfield corners. He could be on the bench but he also has an option remaining. Mastrobuoni’s minor league profile is somewhat similar but he hasn’t hit in the majors and is now out of options. Taylor has just 83 big league plate appearances and is also out of options. He has big wheels and can also play the outfield, so he could be a nice bench piece who comes in for pinch running and/or defensive substitute opportunities.

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Put it all together and it puts the Mariners in an interesting position. They are clearly in win-now mode. They just finished their fifth straight winning season. They won the West for the first time in over 20 years. They came achingly close to a World Series berth. The Astros and Rangers seem to be dealing with payroll issues. The A’s have some promise but still need to build a pitching staff. The Angels have lots of questions to be answered. The division is there for the Mariners to take.

That should arguably tilt them towards going for established big leaguers such as Polanco or Suárez or whoever else. On the other hand, there’s a chance Emerson is a future star who is ready to go. If he struggles in the spring, Williamson at least gives them a glove-first floor as a fallback. At second base, the M’s could leave it open for Young, Bliss and Arroyo to duke it out. Between the three, they would only need one of them to step forward and seize the job.

In an ideal world, a utility player who can also move to the outfield would make a lot of sense, so perhaps the M’s will make a spirited pursuit of Brendan Donovan. He could play second or third if the younger guys don’t take those jobs. If they do, he could move into the corner infield mix with Victor Robles, Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley. If that also got too crowded, the designated hitter spot is fairly open at the moment. Free agents like Willi Castro or Amed Rosario would be less-exciting versions of the Donovan pick-up.

RosterResource has the club slated for a $151MM payroll in 2026. That’s about $15MM below the $166MM they had at the end of 2025. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently said that next year’s payroll would probably be in a similar range to the prior season. Like all teams, they could use some pitching upgrades, so it will be fascinating to see how much of their remaining resources they use on the infield.

Photo courtesy of Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images

Dayan Viciedo Signs With Yokohama DeNA BayStars

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Veteran infielder Dayan Viciedo has signed a contract with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars for the 2026 season, per an announcement from the BayStars.

Viciedo, now 36, is a Cuban slugger who played in parts of five seasons in the majors with the White Sox from 2010 to 2014. Considered to be among the league’s best prospects after hitting well in the Cuban National Series as a teenager before defecting to play in the majors, Viciedo impressed in a 38-game cup of coffee when he hit .308/.321/.519 across 106 plate appearances for the White Sox in 2010. That seemed to portend a promising future, but Viciedo wouldn’t enjoy a full season at the big league level in 2012. In parts of three seasons as a big league regular for the White Sox, he hit just .250/.294/.425 with a wRC+ of 95.

While he did flash consistent 20-homer pop with the bat, Viciedo was held back by a free-swinging approach that led him to walk in just 5.3% of his trips to the plate during his years as a regular. A 95 wRC+ is hardly unplayable at the big league level, but Viciedo primarily played the outfield corners during his time with the White Sox and received poor grades for his fielding on the grass. Given that, it was hardly a surprise when the White Sox cut him loose prior to the 2015 season. He spent 2015 in the A’s and White Sox farm systems before making the jump to NPB’s Chunichi Dragons in 2016.

Viciedo has done quite well for himself overseas. In 1001 NPB games over the years, he’s managed to hit .287/.352/.458 with 141 career homers. Things began to take a turn for the worse for Viciedo in recent years, however, as he began to struggle in Central League play. After difficult back-to-back seasons for the Dragons in 2023 and ’24, Viciedo actually departed Japan and signed with the Mexican League’s Tecolotes de los Dos Laredos. In 38 games for his new club, Viciedo looked like his old self and slashed .276/.359/.462 with eight homers.

That was enough to catch the attention of the BayStars, and he signed with them back in July to finish out the 2025 season in Japan. He hit .259/.322/.383 in 43 Central League games last year and now will return to the BayStars for a full season in 2026 as he looks to re-establish himself in NPB. He was joined by former big leaguers Mike Ford, Tyler Austin, and Yoshi Tsutsugo in the BayStars’ lineup during the 2025 season. While Viciedo played primarily the outfield corners during his time in the majors, he’s primarily been a first baseman in NPB and will likely fill a first base/DH role for the BayStars in 2026.

Marlins Notes: Cabrera, Alcantara, King

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The Marlins are gearing up for what could be their busiest offseason in years, as all indication point to at least some willingness to spend in free agency this winter coming off a 79-win campaign in 2025 where the team enjoyed the emergence of players like Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee as valuable pieces. At the same time, they’ve got plenty of holes that could make it difficult to compete in what figures to be a stacked NL East next year with the Mets, Phillies, and Braves all expected to try and improve this winter.

That leaves Miami in a difficult spot where they figure to simultaneously try and improve while also building for the future. That could leave the team hesitant to deal away some players that were looked at as likely trade assets even a few months ago. According to Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout of Fish on First, right-handers Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara are hardly locks to be traded this winter. Alcantara, in particular, is someone that the organization “expects” to still be in Miami on Opening Day.

There’s certainly some logic in that, as the 2022 NL Cy Young award winner was one of the league’s best pitchers in the not-too-distant past. A season where Alcantara pitched to a 5.36 ERA across 31 starts surely lowered his value, but if the Marlins still believe in the 30-year-old there’s no reason to sell low. That’s especially true because he’s one of the few players on the Marlins’ roster making significant money. There have been some indications recently that the Marlins could be worried about a potential grievance from the MLBPA due to their lack of spending, and trading Alcantara away would be counterproductive to any efforts to prove that the club is using revenue sharing dollars on the on-field product.

That leaves 27-year-old Cabrera as the more likely piece to move of the pair, though Barral and Azout both note that the Marlins would need to receive an “overwhelming return” to pull the trigger on a trade. That’s a sensible stance to take. Cabrera enjoyed a breakout season in 2025, with a 3.53 ERA and 3.83 FIP across 26 starts. He struck out 25.8% of his opponents against a walk rate of just 8.3% this year, and his fastball average 97.0 mph on the radar gun, the fastest velocity of his career so far. A young starter on the upswing with three years of team control would surely be one of the hottest commodities on the trade market, and the Marlins have no reason to rush a trade for that reason. The Mets and Cubs were among the teams connected to Cabrera when he was on the market over the summer, and both appear to be in the market for rotation help again this winter.

Trading an impact starter may not necessarily be in the cards for Miami this winter, and if they don’t they’ll retain a frightening on-paper rotation of Alcantara, Cabrera, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, and Ryan Weathers with players like Max Meyer, Robby Snelling, Janson Junk, and Ryan Gusto providing depth behind that group. There’s enough health questions within that group of arms that it’s not impossible to fit another starter into the mix, and there’s been previous connections drawn between the Marlins and right-hander Michael King. Barral and Azout suggest that a reunion with the club’s 12th-round pick from the 2016 draft is “highly unlikely,” however.

That’s perhaps not too much of a surprise. While King is coming off a down season where he made just 15 starts due to shoulder issues, MLBTR predicted that he’d land a four-year, $80MM contract in free agency this offseason. That would be quite a step up for a Marlins team that hasn’t spent much beyond the $53MM contract they gave to Avisail Garcia back in 2021 in recent years, at least via free agency. Adding a player like King at that sort of price tag would be a bold move, especially given the fact that the starting rotation is already a strength for the club. The Cubs and Orioles have both been tied to King in free agency this offseason already, and more teams are surely interested in the right-hander after he flashed ace-level potential with the Padres in 2024.

Marlins Interested In Pete Fairbanks

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The Marlins are interested in right-hander Pete Fairbanks, according to a report from Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout of Fish on First. Barral and Azout add that the Marlins continue to show interest in Devin Williams, who Barral previously linked to Miami last month.

Fairbanks, 32 next month, is a player president of baseball operations Peter Bendix is very familiar with from his years in the Rays’ front office. A ninth-round pick by the Rangers back in 2015, he made his big league debut with Texas back in 2019 but was traded to the Rays in exchange for prospect Nick Solak after just eight appearances. Then 25, Fairbanks finished an uneven rookie year with a 6.86 ERA and 5.07 FIP across 21 innings of work but emerged in the shortened 2020 as one of the league’s most exciting up-and-coming relievers, as he turned in a 2.70 ERA while striking out 33.3% of his opponents in across 27 appearances.

That strong 2020 campaign kicked off a stretch where Fairbanks became one of the Rays’ most reliable relief arms. From 2021 to ’22, he pitched to a 2.70 ERA with a 35.2% strikeout rate and picked up 13 saves along the way before being installed more firmly as the Rays’ closer for the 2023 campaign. In his three years as Tampa’s full-time closer, Fairbanks has turned in brilliant results with a 2.98 ERA and 3.31 FIP in 151 innings of work while collecting 75 saves. With that said, his peripheral numbers have begun to flag somewhat.

Over the past three years, Fairbanks has taken a step back from striking out a third of his opponents and instead punched out 27.9% against a 9.0% walk rate. That’s fallen even further when looking at the last two years, when his strikeout rate has fallen to 24.0% as his average fastball velocity has dipped from its 99 mph peak to just 97.3 this year. That’s still premium velocity, of course, but the dip in velocity and declining strikeout rate headed into Fairbanks’s age-32 season leave some questions in his profile that weren’t present even two years ago. All those red flags led the Rays to decline their $11MM team option on Fairbanks’s services for the 2026 season, though it’s fair to expect that a team with a larger budget might have happily picked up that option given the relatively low price tag on a one-year commitment.

Since he became a free agent, Fairbanks has gotten attention from teams like the Dodgers and Blue Jays as they seek to fortify their bullpens. That’s surely not anything close to a comprehensive list of the teams interested in his services, as teams like the Cubs, Mets, Mariners, and Yankees all figure to be heavily involved in the bullpen market as well. That’s a lot of big market teams for the Marlins to be doing battle with, but the good news for the club is that some top-flight relief arms like Edwin Diaz, Robert Suarez, and Ryan Helsley seem likely to draw the attention of some of those big market teams.

That could leave someone like Fairbanks, who doesn’t figure to get a deal close to that of someone like Diaz, for the Marlins to scoop up. He’d be very likely to come much more cheaply than Williams, who has already been explicitly connected to eight different teams and remains likely to command a hefty deal due to that interest even after a down season in New York. While the Marlins are known to be involved in that market too, MLBTR predicted Williams to land a four-year, $68MM contract this winter. It would be a shock to see Fish spend at that level on a reliever, and the two-year, $18MM deal predicted for Fairbanks is surely much more appealing even as the team is apparently looking to spend.

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