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Blue Jays, Cody Ponce Agree To Three-Year Deal

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5:41pm: It’ll be a $30MM guarantee, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The deal is pending a physical.

5:36pm: The Blue Jays are finalizing a three-year contract with free agent starter Cody Ponce, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The 6’6″ righty returns to the majors after an MVP-winning season in the Korea Baseball Organization.

Toronto continues to load up in the rotation on the same day they finalized their seven-year contract with Dylan Cease. They already had a strong top four with Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber. Ponce and José Berríos project as the fifth and sixth starters in what looks like one of the strongest rotations in baseball. Eric Lauer, who pitched to a 3.18 ERA over 104 2/3 innings in a swing role this year, is down to seventh on the depth chart.

The three-year deal and $10MM average annual value suggests the Jays view Ponce as a starter. He doesn’t have much rotation experience in the big leagues, starting five of 20 appearances with the Pirates between 2020-21. Ponce struggled in that first look but has reinvented himself since moving to Asia. He pitched parts of three seasons in Japan before a breakout 2025 season with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles.

Ponce took the ball 29 times and turned in a 1.89 earned run average across 180 2/3 innings. He recorded a league-best 36.2% strikeout percentage against a tidy 6% walk rate. Ponce led the league with 252 strikeouts overall and was the only KBO pitcher with a sub-2.00 ERA in more than 100 innings.

The numbers alone would have been enough for Ponce to get back on the MLB radar. The more important factor for his contract was that his stuff has taken a matching jump. Ponce averaged 93.2 MPH on his fastball during his big league look, but a scout with a non-Toronto team told MLBTR in October that his velocity had climbed into the mid-90s. Eno Sarris of The Athletic wrote earlier this week that his average heater was in the 95 MPH range, and he has been clocked up to 98. Ponce has reportedly picked up a splitter — the carrying pitch for Yesavage and Gausman as well — and mixes in a cutter and curveball.

Ponce throws harder and has better secondary stuff than Erick Fedde did when he returned to North America after his own MVP season in Korea. As a result, the 31-year-old Ponce gets an extra guaranteed year and doubled the $15MM guarantee that Fedde received from the White Sox over the 2023-24 offseason. Fedde, for what it’s worth, pitched well in his first year back before his numbers cratered this past season.

It’s a strong deal for Ponce, who tops MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $22MM. It’s by far the biggest payday of his career. Ponce received a signing bonus a little north of $1MM as a second-round pick by the Brewers in the 2015 draft. He did not come close to the service time to qualify for arbitration in his first stint in MLB and played on a $1MM contract with the Eagles.

The salary breakdown hasn’t been reported, but an even distribution of $10MM annually would push Toronto’s projected payroll to roughly $272MM (courtesy of RosterResource). The $10MM average annual value pushes their luxury tax projection above $280MM. The Jays are in the second tax tier and are taxed at a 42% rate on spending between $264MM and $284MM. That means they’ll pay $4.2MM in taxes for the first season of the Ponce contract. That’s a relative drop in the bucket given the amount the Jays are spending, but the payroll only seems likely to climb further. They’d like to re-sign Bo Bichette and will almost certainly add a high-leverage reliever to join Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland at the back of the bullpen.

Spending beyond the $284MM mark would raise their tax penalties and result in their top pick in the 2027 draft being moved back 10 spots. That doesn’t appear to be much of a deterrent for a team that forfeited its second and fifth-highest picks in next summer’s draft and $1MM from its international bonus pool to sign Cease. The Jays are all in after coming tantalizingly close to their first World Series in three decades.

If payroll does become an obstacle to re-signing Bichette or adding to the bullpen, the Jays could look to shop Berríos. He’s making $18MM next season and will need to decide whether to opt out of the remaining two years and $48MM on the deal after 2026. It’s not an egregious contract but looks above market for what’ll be ages 32-34 on a pitcher who has struck out fewer than 20% of batters faced in consecutive seasons. Berríos is a solid source of back-of-the-rotation innings, but the Jays would probably need to pay down some of the money and/or take back a slightly underwater deal in a trade.

More to come.

Angels Sign Alek Manoah To Major League Deal

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The Angels announced they have signed right-hander Alek Manoah to a major league deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN previously reported the agreement and that Manoah will make $1.95MM next year. The Halos had multiple 40-man vacancies and didn’t need to make a corresponding move for the Covenant Sports Group client.

It’s a clear buy-low move for the Angels. Manoah was once a first round pick and top prospect, then became a Cy Young candidate as of a few years ago. But more recently, injuries and underperformance bumped his stock to the point that he was non-tendered by Atlanta last month.

The Blue Jays selected Manoah 11th overall in 2019. By 2021, he was making big league starts. He took the ball 20 times that year and threw 111 2/3 innings, allowing 3.22 earned runs per nine. His 8.7% walk rate was around average while his 27.7% strikeout rate was quite strong. 2022 was his first full season. He made 31 starts and logged 196 2/3 innings with a 2.24 ERA. His strikeout rate dropped to 22.9% but he also improved his walk rate to a 6.5% clip. He finished third in American League Cy Young voting behind Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease.

It’s basically been downhill since then. He struggled badly enough in 2023 to get optioned to the minors multiple times. He finished the year with a 5.87 ERA over 19 starts. His strikeouts dipped to a subpar 19% rate while his walk rate climbed to an ugly 14.2% pace.

Going into 2024, the Jays reportedly had some openness to trading Manoah, with the Angels checking in on him at that time. However, the Jays didn’t pull the trigger on a deal and he opened the 2024 season with Toronto. He was slowed by some shoulder soreness during the spring and began the season on the injured list. He was reinstated in May and then made five decent starts, with a 3.70 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. However, he then went back on the IL, this time due to an elbow sprain. He required Tommy John surgery in June of that year.

Manoah then spent the rest of that season on the IL. The Jays held him on the roster through the winter and tendered him a contract. They avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $2.2MM salary for 2025.  They then put him back on the 60-day IL in March. He began a rehab assignment in July. Rehab assignments normally are capped at 30 days for pitchers but guys recovering from Tommy John can push that to 60.

By the middle of September, Manoah’s clock was up but the Jays had a rotation featuring Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Max Scherzer, with Trey Yesavage lurking in Triple-A. Manoah also hadn’t done much to force the issue, as he had a 19.6% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate during his rehab outings. He was reinstated from the IL but optioned to Triple-A Buffalo.

Later that month, the Jays needed a 40-man spot to reinstate Anthony Santander from the 60-day IL. Manoah was designated for assignment as the corresponding move. With the trade deadline having passed, the Jays had to put him on waivers, with Atlanta claiming him. They held him on their roster for a while but then non-tendered him. It might seem a bit odd to claim a player off waivers and then cut him shortly thereafter. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible Atlanta tried to sign him for 2026 but then non-tendered him when they couldn’t agree on the price point.

For the Halos, it’s a low-cost bet on a bounceback. The salary isn’t much beyond the league minimum, which will be $780K next year. Manoah also still has options, so it’s possible he could be pitching in Triple-A as depth.

Pitching has been a weakness for the club for quite a while and 2025 was no exception. The staff as a whole had a 4.89 ERA this year, putting them ahead of just the Rockies and Nationals. That includes a 4.91 ERA from the rotation, again ahead of just Washington and Colorado. Tyler Anderson became a free agent at season’s end, thinning out the group even more.

Going into 2026, there is very little certainty in the rotation group. Yusei Kikuchi and José Soriano have two spots spoken for. Reid Detmers seems like he’ll get a chance to return to the rotation but he’s a big question mark after struggling in 2024 and then pitching out of the bullpen in 2025. There are a few other guys in the mix, such as Jack Kochanowicz, Caden Dana and Sam Aldegheri, though those guys have fairly mixed track records.

Since the offseason has begun, this is the second time the Angels have bought low on a former big name. A couple of weeks ago, they traded Taylor Ward to the Orioles in order to nab Grayson Rodriguez. It’s a somewhat similar situation to Manoah, as Rodriguez was the 11th overall pick in 2018 but has seen his career thrown off course by injuries. Perhaps the Angels will make more of a surefire rotation addition later in the winter but they have stuck with the less certain guys so far.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Manoah now. It’s been a few years since he was both healthy and effective. He was averaging just 91 miles per hour on his fastball in Triple-A this year. That’s almost three ticks below his 2022 season, when he averaged 93.9 mph. Perhaps being further removed from his surgery will allow him to find a new gear. If not, the Angels won’t have lost much. If it works out, Manoah will finish the 2026 season with less than six years of service, so he could be retained via arbitration for the 2027 season.

Photos courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images

Astros To Sign Ryan Weiss To Major League Deal

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The Astros have reportedly agreed to a major league deal with right-hander Ryan Weiss, who has been pitching in Korea lately. Weiss is guaranteed $2.6MM and there’s a club option for 2027. He could potentially earn $10MM over the course of the pact. The Astros have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

It’s a bit of an early birthday present for Weiss, who turns 29 next Wednesday. A fourth-round draft pick of the Diamondbacks back in 2018, he showed enough promise as a minor leaguer that the Snakes added him to their 40-man in November of 2021 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He had just tossed 78 1/3 minor league innings in that 2021 season with a 4.60 earned run average and 9.5% walk rate but his 27% strikeout rate was quite good.

He struggled in the minors in 2022 and was placed on waivers, with the Royals placing a claim. Kansas City then passed him through waivers unclaimed in October of 2022. The Royals then released him in May of 2023. At that point, Weiss had tossed 76 1/3 innings on the farm, dating back to the start of 2022. In that time, he allowed 6.96 earned runs per nine.

That release kicked off a nomadic period for Weiss. He then landed with the High Point Rockers of the independent Atlantic League. After a few months there, with a 4.61 ERA, he signed with the Fubon Guardians of Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League. He had a decent 2.32 ERA there, though in just 31 innings. He started 2024 back with the Rockers, posting a 4.61 ERA over nine starts.

In June of 2024, he signed with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization. It was with that club that he seemed to unlock a new gear. In 2024, he gave the Eagles 16 starts with a 3.73 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 48.2% ground ball rate. He returned to the Eagles in 2025 and took the ball 30 more times. He logged 178 2/3 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 48.5% ground ball rate.

Weiss then pitched in relief for the Eagles in the playoffs but the Astros plan to utilize him as a starter. Houston has plenty of uncertainty in their rotation mix. They just lost Framber Valdez to free agency. Luis Garcia required another Tommy John surgery late in 2025 and has been jettisoned from the roster. Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco and Brandon Walter also had TJS in 2025 and are slated to begin next year on the injured list.

That left the Astros going into 2026 with Hunter Brown and a heap of question marks behind him. Cristian Javier will be in the mix but he had a 4.62 ERA in 2025 after returning from his own lengthy surgery layoff. Lance McCullers Jr. has had all kind of injury troubles and put up a 6.51 ERA this year. Spencer Arrighetti was good in 2024 but spent most of 2025 on the IL and only made seven starts. Jason Alexander had some passable results this year but he’s a journeyman depth guy who’s about to turn 33. J.P. France spent most of 2025 recovering from shoulder surgery. Colton Gordon and AJ Blubaugh are on the 40-man but lacking in experience.

Upgrading the rotation for 2026 makes plenty of sense but it appears the club doesn’t have a ton of spending capacity. Reportedly, owner Jim Crane would prefer to avoid the competitive balance tax in 2026. RosterResource projects them for a $218MM CBT number next year. That’s more than $20MM below next year’s $244MM base threshold but the club also has other needs to address this winter. Trading someone like Christian Walker or Jake Meyers might free up some extra space but it’s somewhat tight for now.

So far, their rotation additions have been of the low-cost wild card variety. They took a flier on former top prospect Nate Pearson, signing him to a $1.35MM guarantee. Now they’ve added Weiss into the mix as well. Perhaps there’s a more surefire rotation upgrade over the horizon. For now, the Astros are making a modest bet that Weiss transfer some of his strong KBO results to the MLB level. For his part, Weiss gets a nice paycheck despite still having no major league experience.

Reporter Daniel Kim first reported that the two sides were close to a deal. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported that an agreement was in place for a major league pact and that Weiss will be a starter. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported the guarantee, the presence of a ’27 option and the possibility for the deal to go beyond $10MM. Chandler Rome of The Athletic specified that the option is a club option.

Blue Jays Still Exploring Rotation Additions After Dylan Cease Deal

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The Blue Jays made a big move to upgrade their rotation by signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year deal, but they may not be done. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the Jays have remained engaged on the starting pitching market even after agreeing to terms with Cease. The report mentions that the Jays had interest in Joe Ryan of the Twins and MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals prior to the trade deadline, while also suggesting the Jays have some interest in free agents Michael King and Cody Ponce.

The Toronto rotation currently projects to include Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and José Berríos, with guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis in the mix as well.

That’s a pretty strong group but there are some question marks. Bieber’s decision to trigger his $16MM player option has led to speculation he may not be 100% healthy. He could have taken a $4MM buyout and returned to free agency, only needing to get $12MM to come out ahead, but a new deal would have required him to pass a physical. To be clear, that’s entirely speculative. There has been no public indication anything is wrong with Bieber, but it’s one possible explanation for why he didn’t pursue a larger deal. Another explanation could be that he simply wanted to stay with the Jays for another year before heading to free agency after a fully healthy season.

Beyond that, Gausman turns 35 in January. Yesavage had a tremendous debut late in the year but is still light on big league experience. Berríos had a mediocre 2025 and finished the season on the injured list due to elbow inflammation, though he is supposedly going to have a normal offseason. Lauer worked both as a starter and a reliever in 2025 and seems likely to do so again next year. Tiedemann has been on prospect lists for years but already had workload concerns before Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2025 season. Francis had a good showing in 2024 but was held back by shoulder problems this year.

There’s also the long-term picture to consider. Gausman, Bieber and Lauer are all slated for free agency after 2026. Berríos can also opt-out of his deal at that time. There’s reportedly been some consideration of trading Berríos but that will be a challenge considering his health status, results and opt-out. The general point is that there’s not a lot of long-term certainty. Signing Cease upgraded the rotation for the upcoming campaign and beyond. Yet another acquisition could do the same.

Gore is a pretty straightforward trade candidate. The Nationals are rebuilding and aren’t likely to be contending for a while. Gore is controlled for two more years and is represented by the Boras Corporation. It’s not true that Boras clients never sign extensions but it’s a decent bet that Gore and Boras are looking forward to free agency.

It’s notable that the Jays were interested in him ahead of the deadline but his situation has changed a bit since then. He was dominant through the All-Star break in 2025, as he had an 3.02 earned run average, 30.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate at that time. But he struggled down the stretch and went on the IL twice, first due to shoulder inflammation and then an ankle impingement. His results suffered and he finished the year with a 4.17 ERA.

The Nats are getting interest in Gore this offseason but could perhaps wait until the upcoming trade deadline if they don’t get offers to their liking. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.7MM next year, with another arbitration control beyond that. The Nats have very little on their books and don’t need to move him for financial reasons. If the Jays want to circle back to Gore, they might have to put a notable prospect package on the table.

The situation with Ryan is somewhat analogous. He is also two years away from the open market, with a projected $5.8MM salary next year. He has been a pretty consistently above average pitcher in his career. In his 641 1/3 innings, he has a 3.79 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate.

The Twins seemed to kick off a rebuild or retool or reset or whatever at the deadline. They traded a number of relievers, including Louis Varland to the Jays, and sent Carlos Correa back to Houston. Coming into this offseason, many expected Ryan and other Twins to be on the trade block but Minnesota’s president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has downplayed the idea that he needs to continue subtracting from the roster.

If the Jays can’t find solutions on the trade market, they could sign another free agent. Nicholson-Smith reports that King “could be” of interest. Though the Jays wouldn’t sacrifice prospects directly, they would still be hurting their farm system. King rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres and is therefore tied to the associated penalties. Since the Jays paid the competitive balance tax in 2025, they would have to forfeit two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus pool space. Cease also rejected a QO from the Padres, so the Jays have already paid that price. If they were to end up with Cease and King, that would mean giving up a total of four draft picks and $2MM from their bonus pool.

It’s unclear if the Jays would be willing to go down that road. It presumably depends on what kind of financial price they would have to pay to sign King. He seemed on track for a nine-figure deal before injuries hampered him in 2025. MLBTR predicted him for a four-year, $80MM deal but it’s possible King looks for a shorter deal with opt-outs, so that he can return to free agency with a healthier platform season.

He had a really strong run from the second half of 2023 through the beginning of 2025. With the Yankees in 2023, he was blocked and stuck in a relief role. As the Yanks were playing out a lost season two years ago, they let King take a rotation job. He performed well and was flipped to the Padres prior to 2024, which eventually became his best season. From August 24th of 2023 through May 18th of 2025, he tossed 267 2/3 innings with a 2.72 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. FanGraphs had him seventh among pitchers in the majors in wins above replacement for that span, behind only Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Cole Ragans and Cease.

The latter months of 2025 were marred by injury, however. A nerve injury in his shoulder put him on the shelf for several months. He came off the IL in August but left knee inflammation sent him right back there. He returned in September and wasn’t amazing, allowing ten earned runs in his final 15 2/3 innings. The Padres gave the Game Three start in the Wild Card round to Yu Darvish, who was 39 years old and battling elbow problems which would require surgery a month later, instead of King.

It all makes King one of the more interesting free agents of the offseason. He was a borderline ace for a while there but also has only one big league season with more than 15 starts. Teams likely have varying opinions on what they expect from him going forward.

As for Ponce, he’s also a wild card, but for different reasons. His MLB track record is small but he’s been pitching well overseas. He just wrapped up a season in which he tossed 180 2/3 innings for the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization with a 1.89 ERA. His 252 strikeouts were a single-season KBO record. He was named the league MVP for his dominant season but remains unproven in North American ball. Regardless, it has been reported that he could earn $30MM to $40MM on a three-year deal.

Time will tell how aggressively the Jays go after another rotation upgrade. They still have needs elsewhere, including the back of the bullpen. Bringing in an impact bat, such as Kyle Tucker or reuniting with Bo Bichette, seems to be on the to-do list as well. RosterResource projects the Jays for a $263MM payroll and $272MM competitive balance tax figure next year. Those numbers were $258MM and $283MM at the end of 2025. It’s unclear how much farther they can push things but perhaps their deep playoff run in 2025 has created some extra spending capacity in 2026.

Photo courtesy of Matt Krohn, Imagn Images

Giants’ Casey Schmitt Undergoes Wrist Surgery

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Giants infielder Casey Schmitt underwent surgery to remove a carpal boss from his left wrist this morning, the team announced. He’ll require anywhere from eight to ten weeks to recover. That could cut into Schmitt’s availability early in spring training, but so long as there are no lingering complications, he should have time to ramp up for Opening Day.

Word of Schmitt’s surgery comes just a day after reports emerged that the Giants were among the teams looking into second base upgrades. That’s hardly a surprise, given that San Francisco second basemen combined for a dismal .217/.273/.343 batting line in 2025. The resulting 73 wRC+ (indicating they were 27% worse than league-average) ranked 27th in MLB.

Schmitt, Tyler Fitzgerald, Christian Koss and Brett Wisely took all of the reps at second base for San Francisco last season. None of them hit well while manning the keystone — though Schmitt’s overall .234/.305/.401 was only a bit worse than average at the plate (98 wRC+). Coupled with 113 solid plate appearances in 2024, Schmitt has been an average bat over the past two seasons, hitting .241/.300/.420 with 18 homers in 461 plate appearances.

As things stand, Schmitt sits atop the Giants’ depth chart at second base. Fitzgerald and Koss both remain with the organization. Wisely was claimed off waivers by Atlanta in September and remains on the Braves’ 40-man roster.

There’s no top prospect breathing down Schmitt’s neck. Gavin Kilen, Josuar Gonzalez and Jhonny Level all play the middle infield, but none will be ready for a look come 2026. The Giants have long stood as a fit to add help at second base, though their stated reluctance to go long-term on starting pitchers this offseason makes it worth wondering whether they’d make a real run at top free agent Bo Bichette. Alternatives in free agency include Jorge Polanco and Ha-Seong Kim, while the trade market presents possibilities like Brandon Lowe, Brendan Donovan, CJ Abrams and buy-low names such as Nolan Gorman and Luisangel Acuña.

For now, Schmitt still profiles as the top option, but news of his injury only further shines a light on the Giants’ need at second base. If the Giants do succeed in bringing in someone from outside the organization, that doesn’t necessarily squeeze Schmitt out of a role entirely. He has ample experience at all three infield spots to the left of first base to go along with decent speed and a strong throwing arm. He’d make a decent utility player and also has a minor league option remaining, giving the Giants the flexibility to send him to Triple-A Sacramento and call him up in the event of an injury elsewhere on the roster. The Giants can control Schmitt for at least another four seasons — possibly five, depending on how much (if any) time he spends in the minors  during his final option year.

Blue Jays Sign Dylan Cease To Seven-Year Deal

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December 2nd: The Jays made it official today, announcing they have signed Cease to a seven-year deal.

November 26th: The Blue Jays are making a major splash at the top of the rotation. Toronto is in agreement with Dylan Cease on a seven-year contract, pending a physical. It’s reportedly a $210MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, though it includes deferred money that’ll drop the average annual value for luxury tax purposes to roughly $26MM. That puts the net present value closer to $182MM.

Even after adjusting for deferrals, it’s the largest free agent signing in franchise history. Though the Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension earlier this year, they’d never gone beyond George Springer’s six-year, $150MM deal on the open market.

Cease, 30 next month, entered free agency as a test case of how much modern front offices care about earned run average. In two of the past three seasons, his ERA has jumped to the mid-4.00s, including a 4.55 mark in 2025. However, in just about every other respect, he has been great. He has been incredibly durable. His control isn’t amazing but he has racked up strikeouts. He has kept his fastball velocity in the upper 90s, while also featuring a slider, knuckle curve and changeup.

Though Cease debuted back in 2019, he has actually never been on the major league injured list, apart from a very brief stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season and has taken the ball at least 32 times in each full season since. In total, he’s made 174 starts since the start of 2020, which leads all major league pitchers. He generally doesn’t pitch deep into games, however, so he’s ninth in that span in terms of innings.

On top of the quantity, the quality has been strong. For that same 2020-25 span, he posted a 3.88 ERA. His 9.9% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he punched out 28.9% of batters faced with a 14.4% swinging strike rate.

As mentioned, his ERA has wobbled in recent years, but it has done so while other elements of his game have stayed more consistent. He actually saw his ERA drop to 2.20 in 2022. With the White Sox at that time, he finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander. His ERA then shot up to 4.58 in 2023, dropped to 3.47 in 2024 and then climbed back up to 4.55 this year.

But during those ups and downs, his strikeout and walk rates have been less volatile. His strikeout rate did drop from 30.4% in 2022 to 27.3%, but then it climbed to 29.4% and 29.8% in the two most recent campaigns. His 10.4% walk rate in 2022 decreased to 10.1% and 8.5% in the next two years, followed by a slight uptick to 9.8% in 2025.

His batting average on balls in play, which tends to be a bit more luck based, has synched up more with his ERA shifts. A standard BABIP is usually around .290 but Cease was down at .260 in that 2022 season. It then swung the other way to .330 in 2023 as Cease’s ERA climbed, then went to .263 and .320 in the two most recent seasons as his ERA dipped and climbed again.

As such, ERA estimators have considered Cease to be far more steady than his actual ERA. His FIP has been between 3.10 and 3.72 for the past four years. His SIERA was at 3.48 in 2022, jumped a bit to 4.10 in 2023, and then has been at 3.46 and 3.58 in 2024 and 2025.

As we were deliberating our Top 50 Free Agents post at MLBTR, we had many debates about whether the inconsistent ERA would hurt his earning power, perhaps leading him to accept a short-term deal with opt-outs, or if teams would overlook the ERA and sign him based on his consistency in other areas. In the end, we opted for latter, predicting a seven-year, $189MM deal. Cease has surpassed that in terms of sticker price, though the deferrals will seemingly put the net present value closer just below that projection.

The Blue Jays are coming off their best season in years, as they charged all the way to Game Seven of the World Series, ultimately falling to the Dodgers in extra innings. However, the season ended with plenty of rotation uncertainty. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer became free agents. Shane Bieber had a $16MM player option he seemed likely to decline. In the long term, Kevin Gausman is a free agent after 2026. José Berríos has an opt-out in his deal after the upcoming campaign.

In the past few weeks and months, the long-term outlook has improved considerably. Trey Yesavage came up late in the year and was immediately able to get hitters out, quickly establishing himself as a rotation building block. Bieber surprisingly decided to trigger his player option and stick with the Jays for one more year. Now Cease is in the fold for the long run.

That gives the Jays a rotation of Gausman, Cease, Yesavage, Bieber and Berríos going into 2026, with guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis also in the mix. Though Bieber and Gausman are slated to depart after the upcoming campaign, with Berríos potentially joining them, Cease can serve as a bridge to another era. By then, it’s possible Jake Bloss has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and is back in the mix. Prospects like Gage Stanifer and Johnny King might have climbed into the picture by then as well.

Toronto is paying a significant cost to lock Cease in as a long-term anchor. RosterResource projected their 2026 payroll around $232MM, while their luxury tax number was right around the $244MM base threshold. It won’t be clear how much either number goes up until the payment and deferral structure is reported. The CBT number is based on the contract’s average annual value, so the salary breakdown doesn’t matter for tax purposes, but the deferrals reduce the contract’s actual value by around $4MM annually.

In any case, the Jays are clearly going to pay the tax in 2026, and this will push them beyond the $264MM first surcharge tier. They’re into CBT territory for a second consecutive season, meaning they’re taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages. They’ll pay a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM, 75% for spending between $284MM and $304MM, and a 90% rate on any further spending. The Cease deal itself comes with roughly $8.5MM in taxes, but the penalties will get higher with any more significant additions.

The Jays almost certainly aren’t done. They’ve been loosely linked to Kyle Tucker and have interest in re-signing Bo Bichette. It seems fair to assume they won’t sign all three of this offseason’s top free agents, but a Bichette reunion could still be in play. They’ve also been linked to late-inning bullpen help, ideally a proven closer who’d push Jeff Hoffman into a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.

Cease rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Jays are hit with the highest penalty to sign a qualified free agent because they paid the competitive balance tax this year. They’ll surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft plus $1MM from their international bonus pool in 2027. San Diego also paid the luxury tax this year, so they’re entitled to the lowest form of compensation: a selection after the fourth round next summer. They’ll get another of those if/when Michael King signs elsewhere.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Blue Jays and Cease were in agreement on a seven-year, $210MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals, while Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported the approximate $26MM AAV.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

Tigers Among Teams Interested In Pete Fairbanks

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The relief market has been the most active element of free agency so far, with Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, Raisel Iglesias and Phil Maton among the most prominent names off the board thus far. Former Rays closer Pete Fairbanks has seen his name pop up frequently early on as well, drawing connections to the Marlins, Blue Jays and Dodgers. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi adds the Tigers to the list of clubs with interest in Fairbanks.

Tampa Bay’s decision to decline an $11MM option on Fairbanks was a moderate surprise. He’d just wrapped up his healthiest season and has been a quality ’pen arm for Rays skipper Kevin Cash dating back to 2020. Since that shortened season, the 31-year-old Fairbanks (32 in two weeks) sports a collective 2.87 ERA, 88 saves, 30 holds, 30.2% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. That includes a 2.83 ERA and career-high 27 saves this past season (in a career-high 60 1/3 innings).

That said, Fairbanks comes with his share of red flags. Beyond turning 32 this month, he’s seen his velocity, strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate all dip in recent seasons. He’s averaged 97.3 mph on his heater in each of the past two seasons, which is still well above average but noticeably down from the pitch’s peak average of 99 mph. Fairbanks set down nearly 35% of his opponents on strikes from 2020-23 but is at 24% over the past two years. He sat 15.1% with his swinging-strike rate from 2020-22 but is down to 11.3% in 2024-25 — roughly in line with the league average.

None of these trendlines suggest that Fairbanks is suddenly a bad reliever, but he’s not quite as dominant as he once was. He’s also missed considerable time with injury over the years. Since 2021, Fairbanks has been placed on the injured list six different times. That’s been due to a pair of lat strains, shoulder inflammation, forearm inflammation, a nerve issue and hip inflammation. This past season’s 60 1/3 innings weren’t just a career-high — they marked the first time Fairbanks has completed even 46 innings in a major league season.

For a budget-crunched club like the Rays, the $11MM price point was understandably steep. Still, many expected the team to trade Fairbanks before the option decision was due. The Rays clearly weren’t able to find a club willing to give up minor league talent and commit to an $11MM payday for Fairbanks on day one of the offseason. Tampa Bay could’ve picked up the option and tried to trade him down the line, but their early shopping of the right-hander already spelled out that they weren’t keen on paying him $11MM. Trying to trade him after picking up the option ran the risk of needing to pay down even more than the $1MM buyout Fairbanks received in order to acquire a middling return — not exactly appealing for the Rays.

Just because Fairbanks wasn’t traded doesn’t mean his eventual price point will come in under $11MM. A two-year contract remains plenty plausible, particularly if it’s at a slightly lower annual rate. Even on a two-year pact, it’s possible some clubs might now value him differently after seeing other targets come off the board and/or after freeing up payroll space with some of their own early dealings.

The Tigers are an obvious fit for Fairbanks — or for any late-inning reliever in general. Detroit saw Kyle Finnegan, Rafael Montero, Paul Sewald and Tommy Kahnle all reach free agency at season’s end. Will Vest, Tyler Holton, Brenan Hanifee and Brant Hurter all posted quality ERA marks, but Vest is the only one of that quartet who did so with a plus strikeout rate and while pitching consistently in high-leverage settings.

Detroit general manager Jeff Greenberg has already said the team will “certainly” be in the market for a bullpen arm or two. President of baseball operations Scott Harris has also publicly called out the relief corps as an area of focus. The Tigers are hoping to re-sign Finnegan, who dominated for them after coming over from the Nats at the July trade deadline, and they were reported to have interest in Williams before he agreed to a three-year, $51MM deal with the Mets last night. The Tigers are surely casting a wide net in their search for ’pen help, but there’s been enough early interest in Fairbanks that some have speculated he could sign in the relatively near future.

Nationals Have Discussed MacKenzie Gore With Multiple Clubs

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Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore is a logical trade candidate this winter. According to Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN, Washington’s new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni has discussed Gore with multiple unnamed clubs but has a high asking price.

The case for the Nats to listen on Gore is straightforward. The club’s rebuild stalled out to a point that the franchise is undergoing a major shakeup. They fired president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and managed Dave Martinez in the summer. Toboni and Blake Butera are now in to replace them. The club would not have gone down that road if they expected a return to contention in the short term. Presumably, the new guys will have a few years of leeway to steer the ship in a new direction.

Gore is 26 years old, turning 27 in February, and is two years away from free agency. As a Boras client, he isn’t terribly likely to sign an extension this close to the open market. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $4.7MM and would be due another raise in 2027. Over the past two seasons, he tossed 326 innings for the Nats with a 4.03 earned run average.

He showed a higher level of upside for most of 2025. He had a 3.02 ERA through the All-Star break. His 7.7% walk rate was better than average and his 30.5% strikeout rate was quite strong. Only four qualified pitchers were ahead of him in terms of that strikeout rate, an impressive set of names which included Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown.

He didn’t finish on a high note, however. He twice went on the injured list in the second half, once due to shoulder inflammation and the second time due to a right ankle impingement. Around those IL stints, he had a 6.75 ERA, bringing his season-long ERA up to 4.17.

Combining the club’s situation with Gore’s talent, affordability and window of control, there’s a clearcut case for him to be available. For all those reasons, MLBTR ranked him #1 on our list of the Top 40 Trade Candidates, which was published at the beginning of the offseason. That makes it unsurprising that Toboni has discussed Gore with various clubs this winter. It would be more surprising if he hadn’t.

What remains to be seen is if he gets an offer he considers strong enough to accept now. There’s an argument that perhaps he should wait until the trade deadline. It would give the newly-hired Toboni more time to get settled in and build out his staff before making a potentially franchise-altering move. As mentioned, Gore didn’t finish 2025 on a strong note. Perhaps a good start to the 2026 campaign would increase his trade value relative to today. During the offseason, interested teams can pivot to free agency, an option they won’t have in July.

On the other hand, it’s also possible that Gore will have less trade value a few months from now. If he suffers a notable injury in the first few months of the season or perhaps just posts some numbers that are more decent than ace-like, that could have a negative impact on the offers coming into Washington.

What might work in the Nats’ favor is that some other speculative trade candidates might be less available. Sonny Gray has already come off the board, having been traded to the Red Sox. The Marlins were expected to have Sandy Alcantara and/or Edward Cabrera on the block but they reportedly might need to add payroll this winter, making a trade less likely. The Twins seemed to kick off a rebuild at the trade deadline but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently pushed back on the idea that the team will keep selling. Perhaps that means Joe Ryan and Pablo López will stay in Minnesota.

Teams like the Brewers, Pirates and Royals could have pitching to move but they would likely be looking for big leaguers in return. The Nats, presumably, would be focused more on prospects who can help in the long term. For teams shopping in that aisle, Gore is the most attractive option.

Photo courtesy of Eric Hartline, Imagn Images

MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good morning! Chatting a bit early today, as I have some afternoon commitments. Feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as always. We’ll get going at 11am CT!
  • Hello! I’ll get going in a minute. Feel free to start adding questions to the pile!

Question

  • How many questions do you guys usually get on these chats?

Steve Adams

  • Several hundred. More as we get closer to the Winter Meetings, trade deadline, busier times of year in general. I think last week topped out around 800 participants, and I imagine we’ll hit similar or greater levels this time around

Leave it to Beavers

  • Is Bubic available? Would Heston Kjerstad be enough for a 1 for 1 or has his stock fallen too far?

Steve Adams

  • The Royals are open to moving a starting pitcher for an outfielder. President of baseball ops JJ Picollo has publicly said as much. Bubic only has one year left before free agency, so he’s certainly someone they’ll listen on.That doesn’t mean they’re outright shopping him, however. And while Kjerstad was a high-profile prospect for several years, I think his stock has cratered so much that I wouldn’t give much consideration to trading Bubic for him. I’m not convinced Kjerstad even makes it through the offseason on Baltimore’s 40-man roster.

DC Fan

  • Odds CJ Abrams gets traded?  Nunez is pretty good.

Read more

 

Willson Contreras Becoming More Open To Waiving No-Trade Clause

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Entering the offseason, two of the Cardinals’ three pricey veterans — Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado — made clear that they were more willing to waive their no-trade clause this winter than they were last. Gray said he’d “definitely” consider the possibility after chatting with new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom about the team’s direction. He’s already been shipped to the Red Sox. Arenado said he’d consider a broader range of teams this winter than last. He remains with St. Louis and will be extremely challenging to trade given his multiyear decline at the plate and the two expensive years left on his contract.

The Cardinals’ third spendy veteran, first baseman Willson Contreras, said on the final weekend of the season that he’d be open to trade scenarios if they made sense for both the organization and his own personal future but emphasized that his preference was to remain in St. Louis. Now, however, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that Contreras has become increasingly open to waiving his no-trade protection to greenlight a deal if he deems the new club to be a good fit.

Perhaps seeing Gray moved and witnessing a deluge of rumors about teammates like Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, JoJo Romero, Nolan Gorman and others has proven eye-opening for Contreras. Maybe watching the 2025 postseason simply reignited his aspirations to return to the playoffs. Whatever the reason, it’s notable that Contreras is now signaling a greater willingness to approve a deal.

That doesn’t make it a foregone conclusion that he’ll be traded. Contreras’ contract isn’t as complicated as that of Gray or Arenado, but it’s not exactly a raucous bargain in its own right. He’s guaranteed $36.5MM over the next two seasons, plus a $5MM buyout on a club option for the 2028 season. That’s $41.5MM still guaranteed to him overall. Would a 33-year-old Contreras (34 in May) command that type of contract in free agency right now? It’s possible, but he likely wouldn’t earn much beyond that.

Contreras is coming off a strong overall season. He hit .257/.344/.447 with 20 home runs, 31 doubles, a triple, five steals, a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate. By measure of wRC+, he was 24% better than league-average at the plate. His defense at first base — his first year at the new position — drew strong marks from Statcast (6 Outs Above Average) and a roughly average grade from Defensive Runs Saved (-1). It’s not far-fetched to think his glove will improve as he gains more seasoning at his new defensive home.

The Astros signed Christian Walker for three years and $60MM last offseason, a contract that began with his age-34 season. In that sense, one could argue that Contreras’ contract is about market value from an AAV vantage point ($20.75MM AAV on the remaining guarantee) but is more appealing in that it’s a year shorter. Then again, Walker was an elite defensive first baseman who’d his 95 home runs across the three prior seasons; Contreras was a good-not-great defender in ’25 and has hit 55 home runs over the three prior seasons.

The Cards were willing to pay down around half the money remaining on Gray’s contract to get a decent return. They wouldn’t need to eat as much of the Contreras deal to move him, but the more money they absorb, the better the return they can seek. Trading him without paying down any of the remaining salary likely wouldn’t net much of a return at all.

If the Cardinals are willing to eat some of that cash, there should be no shortage of interest in the three-time All-Star. Clubs like the Red Sox (again!), Rangers, Orioles, Guardians, Mets, Marlins and Padres are lacking certainty at first base and/or designated hitter. The Cardinals appear willing to deal within the division, too, which could make Cincinnati or Pittsburgh viable on-paper fits. Could a catching-needy team go outside the box and acquire Contreras with an eye toward putting him back behind the plate? That might be a reach, but it’s a very thin market for catching both in free agency and trade this offseason.

For the Cards, the benefit of trading Contreras is straightforward. Obviously, trimming payroll ahead of a season (likely multiple seasons) where the team doesn’t expect to compete for a World Series would be preferable for ownership. Moving Contreras and including cash in the deal could also net prospect talent of some note, furthering the clear rebuilding efforts.

Trading Contreras would also open first base full-time for Alec Burleson, thereby creating more room in the outfield for players like Joshua Baez, Nathan Church and the seemingly stalled out Jordan Walker (among others). They could also continue giving Burleson some occasional reps in left field and at DH, thus opening more first base reps for Gorman, whose playing time elsewhere in the infield is going to be cut into by top prospect JJ Wetherholt. Then again, Gorman himself could be traded this winter.

Contreras is just one of many Cardinals who could find himself on the move before too long this winter. Bloom & Co. are known to be working to trade Arenado while listening to offers on Donovan, Romero, Nootbaar, Gorman and others. At this point, Contreras and Arenado are the only two Cardinals who are guaranteed any money beyond the current season.

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