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The Opener: Braves, Trade Market, Relief Market

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Braves getting down to business:

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has long been known for his desire to move quickly during the offseason, and yesterday saw him kick off Atlanta’s offseason in a big way. The team re-signed closer Raisel Iglesias on a one-year deal worth $16MM and followed that move up by swinging a trade with the Astros for utilityman Mauricio Dubon. Iglesias helps to steady a bullpen mix that bid farewell to righties Tyler Kinley and Pierce Johnson when their club options were declined. Dubon gives the club a viable answer at shortstop should they fail to find an upgrade elsewhere and an excellent bench piece if he does wind up squeezed out of the starting lineup. In addition to further exploring the shortstop market, Atlanta will be on the hunt for rotation help and another reliever or two.

2. Trade market heating up?

The Dubon deal was the second notable trade in as many days, joining the surprise swap of Taylor Ward for Grayson Rodriguez between the Angels and Orioles. Neither Ward nor Rodriguez was a potential non-tender candidate, but Dubon and Nick Allen (whom the Astros acquired in exchange for Dubon) both might have been on their previous teams. MLBTR’s list of non-tender candidates released yesterday, and GMs around the league will surely be focused on trying to work out trades for any of their players who they don’t plan to tender a contract to tomorrow over the next day. Some notable trade candidates on that list include Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia, Jonathan India, Alec Bohm, Jesus Sanchez, and Bailey Falter.

3. Could Iglesias spark more relief market movement?

Iglesias re-upping with the Braves wasn’t exactly a shocking move, given Atlanta’s proclivity towards familiar faces and a need for help at the back of a bullpen that lacked certainty outside of Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer. Even so, there have been indications this winter that the market for relief arms could move more quickly than other parts of free agency. Iglesias is far from the only interesting name available in a market led by Edwin Diaz. Robert Suarez, Ryan Helsley, and Devin Williams are all notable names who should get strong contracts this winter, while Brad Keller, Pete Fairbanks, and Luke Weaver might lack that star power but would still be exciting additions to the back of virtually any bullpen. Who will be the next to sign?

2025 Non-Tender Candidates

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The non-tender deadline is Friday evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.

As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Some of those players have already been dropped from the roster. A few of the most obvious cuts were dropped within the first five days of the offseason as teams needed to get their offseason roster counts back to 40 without the benefit of the injured list.

Some more were designated for assignment on Tuesday as teams opened space for prospects whom they wanted to keep out of the Rule 5 draft. Those players remain in DFA limbo and are marked below with an asterisk. There’s still a scenario in which they’re tendered a contract. The club that DFA them could trade them before Friday to a team that is fine with the projected arbitration price and keeps them around. While that might happen for a player or two, the vast majority of them will just be non-tendered.

Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (A’s catcher Austin Wynns has already taken this kind of deal.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.

The collective bargaining agreement incentivizes borderline roster players to settle without a hearing even if they’re tendered a contract. Arbitration settlements are fully guaranteed. Salaries determined at a hearing (regardless of whether the arbitrator chose the club’s or player’s filing figure) are not locked in until the beginning of the regular season. If a player whose salary was determined at a hearing is released during the offseason or in Spring Training, they’re only entitled to termination pay. That’d be 30 days at their prorated salary if the release occurs more than 15 days before Opening Day and 45 days of termination pay if the release happens within 15 days of the start of the season.

As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising. We’re only looking at players who are eligible for arbitration. There’ll be plenty of pre-arbitration players from the back of teams’ rosters who are dropped (often to immediately re-sign on minor league deals), but those are outside the scope of this post.

Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:

Catchers

First Basemen

Second Basemen

Third Basemen

Shortstops

Center Fielders

Corner Outfielders

Designated Hitters

Starting Pitchers

Right-Handed Relievers

Left-Handed Relievers

* Indicates player is currently in DFA limbo
^ Traded for one another since the list was published

MLBTR Podcast: Offseason Preview Megapod: Top 50 Free Agents

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images

Braves, Astros Swap Mauricio Dubón For Nick Allen

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The Astros and Braves announced a one-for-one swap of middle infielders. Utility player Mauricio Dubón is headed to Atlanta with defensive specialist Nick Allen on his way to Houston.

Atlanta takes on a few million dollars to upgrade their infield. Dubón, 31, spent nearly four seasons in Houston. The Astros acquired him from the Giants in a minor trade early in 2022. It was a nice pickup, as he developed into a versatile and generally reliable piece off the bench. Dubón won two utility Gold Glove awards while playing all three infield positions to the left of first base and a decent amount of center and left field.

The righty-swinging Dubón was a league average hitter a couple seasons ago, batting .278/.309/.411 with 10 homers in nearly 500 trips to the dish. His offense has declined in each of the past two years. He’s coming off a .241/.289/.355 showing with seven longballs through 398 plate appearances and carries a .256/.293/.358 line over the past two seasons. He’s very difficult to strike out but rarely walks and has well below-average power.

Still, that light bat is a significant upgrade over what Allen brings to the table offensively. The 27-year-old Allen didn’t hit a single home run in 416 trips to the dish this year. He turned in a .211/.284/.251 line that made him easily the worst hitter to take 400+ plate appearances. Allen ranked in the bottom 20 hitters in on-base percentage, while his slugging mark was more than .040 points lower than the second-lowest in MLB (.296 by Victor Scott II). He owns a .213/.265/.272 slash in nearly 1200 plate appearances over parts of four seasons.

Allen has continued to get playing time because of his superlative glove. He has been touted as an excellent infielder dating back to his high school days. Allen has posted fantastic defensive marks in every season of his career. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as the third-best shortstop in MLB this year behind Mookie Betts and Zach Neto. Statcast’s Outs Above Average also had him third, albeit behind Bobby Witt Jr. and Masyn Winn.

Dubón is unlikely to be that caliber of defender if he were pressed into everyday shortstop work. Statcast has graded him as a plus defender in his 721 career innings at the position though. Defensive Runs Saved has him right around league average. Dubón should be capable of playing there every day, and he’s not a complete zero offensively. That’s particularly true in favorable platoon matchups, as he’s a .288/.329/.417 hitter versus left-handed pitching over the past three years.

The Braves couldn’t afford to enter next season with Allen atop the shortstop depth chart. Dubón would be a low-end regular but provides a higher floor. This shouldn’t detract from Atlanta’s interest in re-signing Ha-Seong Kim. Dubón has the versatility to provide cover behind Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley at second and third base while complementing lefty-hitting Michael Harris II in center field. Still, he’s at least a reasonable one-year fallback if Kim signs elsewhere in a market devoid of shortstop alternatives in free agency or trade.

Dubón is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.8MM salary. Allen is eligible for arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player and under control for four years. He’s projected at $1.5MM. Houston cuts a little more than $4MM from the books while downgrading in the utility role.

Allen isn’t going to play shortstop barring an injury to Jeremy Peña, but he can offer a glove-only option at second base. Jose Altuve is the primary starter there for now, but the Astros hope to continue splitting his playing time between the keystone, left field, and designated hitter. They’ve been tied to Brendan Donovan in trade conversations and could consider other possibilities (e.g. a Brandon Lowe trade, Jorge Polanco in free agency) if the Cardinals deal Donovan elsewhere. They’ll ideally add a left-handed bat to balance a righty-heavy lineup. Allen is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to be on the active roster or designated for assignment.

Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported that Dubón had been traded to the Braves just before the announcements. Respective images courtesy of Jerome Miron and Brett Davis, Imagn Images.

Braves Re-Sign Raisel Iglesias

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The Braves announced they’ve re-signed free agent closer Raisel Iglesias to a one-year, $16MM deal. The PRIME client returns for what’ll be a fifth season in Atlanta on the same salary he made in 2025.

As is often the case with Braves moves, the signing comes out of the blue. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested at the GM Meetings the team was more focused on addressing shortstop and upgrading the starting rotation while keeping the bullpen on the back burner. That apparently changed with the opportunity to keep Iglesias, who remains a high-end reliever as he enters his age-36 season.

The 11-year veteran carries a 2.35 earned run average in 218 2/3 innings since the Braves acquired him from the Angels at the 2022 trade deadline. He’s fourth in MLB with 113 saves since the start of that season. Iglesias posted a sub-3.00 ERA each season between 2020-24 as one of the steadier closers in the league.

Things seemed as if they might come off the rails early in 2025. Iglesias gave up an early-season home run barrage, including five longballs in April alone. He surrendered seven round-trippers before the end of May and carried an ugly 5.91 ERA through the first two months. The switch flipped over the summer, as Iglesias was one of the league’s best late-game arms from the beginning of June onward. He reeled off 46 frames of 1.96 ERA ball while striking out 29.3% of opponents over the season’s final four months. Iglesias only gave up one home run in that time despite a massive 54.5% fly-ball rate.

The truth certainly lies somewhere between those two extremes. Iglesias wasn’t going to continue giving up homers on a quarter of fly-balls, as he did early in the year, nor will he maintain the sub-2% homer/fly rate he posted later in the season. That’ll be the main concern moving forward, but his strikeout and walk profile remains strong. Iglesias punched out 27.4% of opponents against a tidy 6% walk rate. He turned in a 3.21 ERA overall while going 29-34 in save chances — coming up just shy of the sixth 30-save showing of his career.

MLBTR ranked Iglesias as our #32 free agent and the #5 reliever in the class in predicting a two-year, $26MM contract. He did not command the second year for what would have been his age-37 campaign. The Braves were apparently one of at least two teams that offered a sizable one-year deal. Francys Romero reports that the Dodgers also made an offer around $16MM but Iglesias declined to remain in Atlanta. L.A. and the Blue Jays were the only other teams publicly linked to Iglesias in what turned out to be a brief stay on the open market.

Toronto and Los Angeles are two of a number of teams that remain in the market for a late-inning reliever. Edwin Díaz is almost certainly going to command the largest contract in the class despite rejecting a qualifying offer from the Mets. Devin Williams has gotten a lot of attention in the first few weeks of the offseason. Robert Suarez should command a multi-year deal at a hefty salary. Ryan Helsley, Kyle Finnegan, Emilio Pagán and Kenley Jansen are among the many other unsigned closers.

Iglesias returns at the back of an Atlanta bullpen that still needs a lot of work. They’re getting Joe Jiménez back after he missed the entire ’25 season recovering from knee surgery. Dylan Lee is a high-end option from the left side. Atlanta dropped right-handed setup arms Pierce Johnson and Tyler Kinley at the beginning of the winter, so another righty alongside Jiménez in the late innings is a must. They’ll balance that against the yet to be addressed starting pitching and shortstop holes.

The Braves now have 13 players on guaranteed contracts that’ll combine for $192.5MM next season. They’re operating with a very light arbitration class that features a number of non-tender candidates. That group is unlikely to add more than $4-8MM to the books. The Braves opened last season with a player payroll around $208MM. They’d likely need to go beyond that mark to address the rotation and shortstop, especially if they fill the latter position by re-signing Ha-Seong Kim. RosterResource projects them for roughly $208MM in luxury tax commitments, putting them well shy of the $244MM base threshold. The Braves are believed to have stayed below the CBT line this year but had paid the tax in 2023 and ’24.

Image courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images.

Mariners Remain Interested In Jorge Polanco After Naylor Deal

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The Mariners have made the biggest move of free agency to date, re-signing Josh Naylor to a five-year deal. The $92.5MM commitment was handily their biggest to a free agent hitter in the decade that Jerry Dipoto has run baseball operations. Seattle’s goal of retaining as much of their 2025 roster as possible continues, as Dipoto told reporters at the press conference announcing the Naylor deal that the team is still interested in re-signing Jorge Polanco.

“Polo’ is a great guy, and we have been in touch with him and his (agency),” Dipoto said (link via Adam Jude of The Seattle Times). “I don’t imagine that it’s going to move as fast as it moved with Josh.” Seattle also hasn’t closed the door on bringing Eugenio Suárez, Jude writes, but it appears Polanco is more of a primary focus.

Seattle brought the switch-hitting Polanco back on a $6MM deal last winter. They were rewarded for their faith that his down 2024 season was due to playing through a meniscus injury in his left knee. Polanco popped 26 homers with a .265/.326/.495 batting line over 524 plate appearances. He spent most of his time at designated hitter to keep him healthy but got more regular run at second base in September and into the postseason.

Polanco is going to command a much stronger contract this time around. He’s a lock for at least two years. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $42MM contract covering his age 32-34 seasons. That price point would have been the M’s largest deal for a free agent hitter under Dipoto until the Naylor signing. It seems there’s still room in the budget for a mid-tier free agent deal of that ilk even with Naylor on the books for $16.5MM next season ($10MM salary plus a $6.5MM signing bonus).

Ryan Bliss, Cole Young and Leo Rivas are the second base options for the time being. Top infield prospect Colt Emerson is looming after hitting .285/.383/.458 between the top three minor league levels as a 19-year-old. Emerson seems likelier to break in at third base, where light-hitting Ben Williamson projects as the starter. That could change if the Mariners are unable to re-sign Polanco and wind up focusing on Suárez instead.

Joe Jiménez Recently Underwent “Cleanup” Knee Procedure

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Braves reliever Joe Jiménez underwent a “cleanup” surgery on his left knee, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters (including David O’Brien of The Athletic). The right-hander missed the entire ’25 season after undergoing surgery to repair cartilage damage in that same knee last November.

While the framing of the surgery as a “cleanup” doesn’t sound especially alarming, the timeline isn’t clear. Anthopoulos said the team won’t know how long he’ll miss until late December at the earliest. That raises some question about his availability for the start of the season, which would be a tough blow for a bullpen that is already lacking right-handed setup options.

Atlanta acquired Jiménez from the Tigers going into the 2023 season. He turned in a 3.04 ERA and re-signed on a three-year, $26MM free agent deal. The first season was a success, as the 6’3″ hurler fired 68 2/3 frames of 2.62 ERA ball. Jiménez wasn’t able to build off that two-year run last season and evidently didn’t recover as smoothly as hoped from last fall’s procedure.

The Braves re-signed Raisel Iglesias to a $16MM deal this evening. He’ll be back in the ninth inning. Jiménez projects as their top right-handed setup man if healthy. Atlanta declined options on Tyler Kinley and Pierce Johnson to keep as much financial breathing room as possible with needs in the rotation and at shortstop. They brought in a potential stopgap at the latter position with tonight’s acquisition of Mauricio Dubón from Houston. They remain in the market for a better shortstop and still need at least one starter. Uncertainty with Jiménez only magnifies their need for a righty leverage piece in front of Daysbel Hernández.

Yankees, Jonathan Ornelas Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees are in agreement with infielder Jonathan Ornelas on a minor league contract, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. According to Francys Romero, he’ll get a non-roster invitation to MLB Spring Training and could opt out midway through the season if he’s not on the 40-man roster.

Ornelas divided this past season between the Rangers and Braves. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he limped to a .196/.295/.303 batting line in nearly 400 plate appearances. Ornelas combined for six big league appearances and has gotten into 32 MLB contests over the past three seasons. He’s a .208 hitter with a .263 on-base percentage and no home runs in that limited body of work.

A former third-round draft choice, Ornelas hasn’t been much of a hitter in the minor leagues either. He owns a .233/.331/.331 slash over parts of three Triple-A seasons. The Yankees are signing him for his glove and defensive versatility. Ornelas has logged more than 3500 minor league innings at shortstop. He has ample second and third base experience and has gotten some work in center and left field.

Anthony Volpe is likely to begin the season on the injured list as he works back from shoulder surgery. José Caballero will enter the year as the starting shortstop barring an offseason acquisition. Braden Shewmake, Jorbit Vivas and Oswaldo Cabrera are their current backup infielders. Shewmake is the only natural shortstop of the group, and he’s coming off a .244/.318/.362 showing in Triple-A. They’ll probably add at least one more established depth infielder, but it’s a decent landing spot for Ornelas as he tries to battle for an Opening Day job.

Mets Finalize 2026 Coaching Staff

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The Mets announced their full coaching staff for the 2026 season today. Some of last year’s staff are coming back and some of the new hires have already been reported. The new developments today include the confirmation of Justin Willard as the new pitching coach. Prior to the official announcement, Willard confirmed to Rob Bradford of the Baseball Isn’t Boring Podcast that he had been hired in that role. Also, the Mets promoted J.P. Arencibia to catching coach, Dan McKinney to assistant pitching coach and Gilbert Gomez to first base and outfield coach.

It was reported earlier this month that Willard was highly likely to be the new Mets pitching coach. It has seemingly taken a few weeks to cross the Ts and dot the Is but he has now been officially put into his new gig.

The Mets and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner parted ways after 2025, which was their sixth season together. The club’s pitchers had disappointed in 2025, with a collective 4.04 earned run average, which put them 18th out of 30th in the majors. However, the club also suffered a number of injury setbacks and it’s always tough to parse the contributions of a coach from the players on his team. Regardless, the Mets are changing things up. Hefner quickly landed a new pitching coach gig within the division. He’s heading to Atlanta for 2026.

Willard, 35, spent the 2018 to 2023 seasons working with the Twins in the minor leagues as a pitching coach and pitching coordinator. He then got hired by the Red Sox going into 2024 to serve as that club’s director of pitching. As mentioned, it’s tough to know when to give a coach credit for the performance of the players. For what it’s worth, the Red Sox finished fifth in the majors in 2025 with a collective 3.72 ERA.

As for the three promotions, they all get bumped from the minors to the majors. Arencibia, 39, is the biggest name of the bunch. He played in the majors from 2010 to 2015, suiting up for the Blue Jays, Rangers and Rays. He spent the three most recent seasons in the Mets’ system, serving as bench coach and assistant hitting coach for Triple-A Syracuse. He was primarily a catcher during his big league career and Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that he recently helped Francisco Alvarez, who was optioned to Triple-A for about a month in June and July.

Gomez, 33, has spent the past seven seasons in the system. He’s been the manager of High-A Brooklyn for the past two of those. McKinney, 31, has been in the system for three years. He was pitching coach for Single-A St. Lucie in 2023, High-A Brooklyn in 2024 and then Double-A Binghamton in 2025.

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Braves Acquire Ryan Rolison

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The Braves have acquired left-hander Ryan Rolison from the Rockies, according to announcements from both clubs. The Rockies, who designated Rolison for assignment yesterday, receive cash considerations in return. Atlanta’s 40-man roster count climbs to 38.

It’s a buy-low move for Atlanta. Rolison was a first-round pick back in 2018, getting selected 22nd overall by the Rockies. He signed with a bonus just north of $2.9MM. He was one of the club’s top prospects in the years after that draft selection but hasn’t yet delivered on his potential.

His trajectory to the majors was thrown off in a few ways. The minor leagues were canceled in 2020 on account of the pandemic. The next few years were curtailed by various injuries, most notably shoulder problems. He was capped at 71 2/3 minor league innings in 2021, missed the entire 2022 season, threw 11 frames in 2023 and then 46 1/3 innings in 2024. He had initially been a starter but has been mostly working out of the bullpen more recently.

In 2025, he finally made it to the show but the results weren’t impressive. He tossed 42 1/3 innings for Colorado this year, allowing 33 earned runs for a 7.02 ERA. His 13% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate were both subpar figures.

If one wanted to look for signs of optimism, his minor league numbers are worth a glance. He tossed 29 2/3 Triple-A innings this year, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. In that environment, he had a 3.34 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 48.8% ground ball rate.

Rolison got nudged off the roster in Colorado but Atlanta had some space and will give him a shot. He still has an option year remaining, so his new club can keep him in the minors as left-handed depth, if they so choose. His service time count is at two years and 114 days, meaning he still hasn’t qualified for arbitration and can be controlled for four seasons. That could extend to five if he ends up spending a large amount of time on optional assignment.

Atlanta seems to have a fondness for getting relievers out of Colorado. In recent years, they have grabbed guys like Pierce Johnson, Brad Hand and Tyler Kinley to bolster their bullpen group. Now they’ll take a shot on Rolison. His overall track record isn’t great but he’s a former first-rounder who is optionable and controllable, while the cash they gave up is presumably minimal. They also won’t be relying on him as he’s probably seventh or eighth on the lefty relief depth chart behind Aaron Bummer, Dylan Lee, Dylan Dodd, José Suarez, Joey Wentz, Hayden Harris and/or Josh Walker.

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

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