Latest On The Phillies’ Pitching Pursuits
The Phillies have long been known to be keeping an eye out for starting pitching depth in order to fortify their rotation, particularly given that Zack Wheeler is expected to open the year on the injured list. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke to reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) earlier today about the team’s pursuits, and Zolecki reports that despite the team’s desire for pitching help, they were not involved in the market for future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer before he returned to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $3MM guarantee. Dombrowski went on to indicate that the remaining top starts available, Lucas Giolito and Zack Littell, are “not a fit” for what the Phillies are looking for either.
That might seem like a surprise on the surface, but it’s fairly understandable. All three hurlers are major league quality starters who figure to have the expectation of getting the opportunity to make a full slate of starts, health permitting. That’s not something the Phillies can offer, given that any addition would come in behind at minimum Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, Cristopher Sanchez, and Aaron Nola on the team’s depth chart. That theoretically leaves one spot open at the back of the rotation even when Wheeler is healthy, but the team has not made it a secret that they hope to give Andrew Painter a significant opportunity in the rotation this year, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. If the rest of the rotation is healthy and another regular was added to the mix, pushing Painter in would either force the club to go to a six-man rotation or demote someone to the bullpen.
Given that, it’s perhaps not too surprising that Dombrowski indicated players like Giolito, Littell, and Scherzer aren’t fits for what they’re looking for. There’s a number of veterans left who seem likely to have to settle for minor league deals such as Patrick Corbin, Tyler Anderson, and Marcus Stroman, but outside of that group the pickings are rather slim. Even if one of those players were open to joining Philadelphia, it might not be an ideal fit. Dombrowski highlighted in his comments to Zolecki that the club’s preference is to add arms that can be optioned to the minors, given that Wheeler could return from the injured list as soon as early April.
It’s not impossible to find optionable starters on the free agent market, as shown by the teams recent minor league deal with right-hander Connor Gillispie. Dombrowski’s comments about their continued search for pitching came after the Gillispie deal, however, suggesting the team is still on the hunt for more talent. That’s not exactly a shock, given that Gillispie has just 34 big league innings under his belt and struggled badly in six starts with the Marlins last year. Fringe big leaguers like Gillispie are par for the course when it comes to free agents available who can still be optioned to the minors, however, and that makes it easy to understand why Dombrowski has indicated in his previous comments that he’s interested in swinging a trade for rotation depth.
Looking around the league, there’s certainly a handful of teams with an excess of optionable starters who could fit the Phillies needs. The Cubs (Javier Assad), Dodgers (Landon Knack), Tigers (Keider Montero) and Giants (Hayden Birdsong) are among the teams with optionable starters who have notable big league experience but are likely to be squeezed out of the club’s rotation entering the year. It’s not easy to get clubs to part with optionable rotation depth given the value of that resource, but if the Phillies are sufficiently motivated those teams could be better equipped to part with the sort of arm Dombrowski seems to be looking for than most. Failing that sort of trade, a non-roster invitee to Spring Training like Bryse Wilson, Tucker Davidson, or perhaps Gillispie (if he received a big league camp invite as part of his deal) seems likely to be where the Phillies turn as they look to give Painter competition for the vacant Opening Day rotation job.
Poll: Will Both Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter Break Camp With Phillies?
The Phillies mostly ran things back over the offseason. They re-signed Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. Their only notable external acquisitions were Adolis García, Brad Keller and Jonathan Bowlan. They let Ranger Suárez and Harrison Bader walk while parting ways with Matt Strahm and Nick Castellanos.
It’s apparent the front office wanted to leave opportunities for two of their most talented young players to break into what is otherwise one of the older core groups in MLB. The door is open for both Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter to head north out of Spring Training. The 22-year-old prospects will look to cement their spots in camp.
Crawford is coming off a fantastic Triple-A season. He hit .334/.411/.452 while stealing 46 bases (albeit with 11 times caught). He walked in nearly 12% of his trips to the plate against a lower than average 18% strikeout rate. The lefty hitter only connected on seven home runs because his swing is geared to hit almost everything on the ground. While that caps his power potential, there’s no need to mess with the mechanics of a player who has hit .322 with a .385 on-base percentage in his minor league career.
Prospect evaluators had varying opinions on Crawford earlier in his minor league days. He was a first-round pick (and the son of a four-time All-Star), so he has certainly had his share of acclaim, but the unconventional offensive approach gave some scouts pause. It has played at every minor league stop, raising the confidence level that Crawford can continue to hit against the highest level arms.
Crawford probably would have made his big league debut late last season if the Phillies hadn’t acquired Bader. He enters Spring Training as the favorite to start in center field on Opening Day, pushing Brandon Marsh to left field. The Phillies could shield him from left-handed pitching on occasion but are planning for him to be a regular. “If you’re going to give Crawford an opportunity, you’ve got to give it to him, and that’s where we are,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in December. “We’re going to give him an opportunity and have him play a lot.”
Philadelphia won’t officially make the decision until Opening Day. They’ve had Crawford as the starting center fielder alongside their other regulars in the first few Spring Training contests. He should win the job unless he suffers an injury during exhibition play. If he does or struggles badly enough in Spring Training that they reconsider that plan, they’d probably be looking at Johan Rojas and Marsh splitting center field work with a rotating group of corner bats in left.
Painter might have a little more work to do during camp. Zack Wheeler won’t be ready for the start of the season. That draws Painter into the fifth starter role behind Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker. There are a few starters lingering on the free agent market (e.g. Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, Max Scherzer). It’s early enough in camp that those pitchers could be ready for Opening Day if they sign within the next week or so. The Phillies have monitored the market for rotation depth, so an addition that pushes Painter back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley doesn’t seem out of the question.
Philadelphia’s rotation beyond their projected top six arms (Wheeler included) is thin. If they lose anyone else before Wheeler returns from his thoracic outlet procedure, they’d probably be pressed into using a minor league signee like Bryse Wilson or Tucker Davidson. There’s an argument for signing a Littell type and having Painter be their first man up in the event of an injury.
The 6’7″ righty also hasn’t mastered Triple-A competition the way that Crawford did last year. Painter made 22 starts and tossed 106 2/3 innings but struggled to a 5.40 earned run average with Lehigh Valley. He struck out an above-average 23.4% of opponents while walking just under 10% of batters faced. The stuff was quite good — a 97 mph average fastball headlining a five-pitch mix — but he was more susceptible to the home run ball than the Phils probably anticipated. While he remains one of the most talented pitching prospects in the sport, his seeming fast track to the majors was halted by Tommy John surgery that wiped out 2023-24 and last season’s uneven return.
Crawford and Painter meet the criteria for the Prospect Promotion Incentive. If the Phillies carry them for a full service year, they could each earn the team an extra draft choice if they play well enough to factor into awards consideration. They’d be on track to hit free agency after the 2031 season if they break camp and perform well enough to remain in the majors permanently. Keeping either player in the minors for a couple weeks would delay that by a year unless they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting.
Will both players be on the roster when the Phillies welcome Texas to Citizens Bank Park on March 26?
Will Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter break camp?
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Both players are on the Opening Day roster. 53% (1,262)
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Crawford breaks camp; Painter starts in the minors. 33% (794)
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Both players begin the season in the minors. 9% (212)
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Painter breaks camp; Crawford starts in the minors. 6% (133)
Total votes: 2,401
Phillies Seeking Rotation Depth With Wheeler Doubtful For Opening Day
Zack Wheeler is maybe the biggest wild card as the Phillies try to claim a third straight NL East title. The ace is working back from the thoracic outlet surgery that ended his 2025 season. The procedure came with a six to eight month recovery timeline from the end of September, calling his availability for the start of ’26 into question.
As camp gets underway, manager Rob Thomson provided a vague timetable for Wheeler’s return. “I don’t think he’ll be ready for Opening Day but it’s not going to be too far beyond that,” Thomson told reporters (link via Paul Casella of MLB.com). The 35-year-old righty is throwing from flat ground and “doing well” in the manager’s words, yet the Phils are obviously going to be cautious with the three-time All-Star. He has not progressed to mound work.
Between Wheeler’s injury and the free agent departure of Ranger Suárez, it’s a thinner starting staff than usual. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer) they’ll look to deepen that group throughout the spring. “When our scouts go out there, that’ll be one of our focuses. And we may develop that internally, too; there’s some guys that we do like. But that’ll be a focus of ours, is starting pitching depth,” Dombrowski said.
That’s not to say the Phillies are likely to add Zac Gallen, Lucas Giolito or Chris Bassitt. It’s generally expected that their three-year deal to bring back J.T. Realmuto was the final big move of an offseason built around re-signing Kyle Schwarber that also saw them sign right fielder Adolis García and reliever Brad Keller.
There are some potential swing options available in free agency (e.g. Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale), though Dombrowski suggested there might be opportunities on the trade front. He noted that the relatively slow-moving free agent market for starting pitching could make some fringe arms on those signing teams available via trade — though that could certainly be counteracted as teams start losing pitchers to injury, as happens every year during Spring Training. A trade would also provide the Phillies with some extra roster flexibility if they can add someone who still has options remaining. Most free agents have the five-plus years of service time that gives them the right to refuse a minor league assignment.
Assuming Wheeler begins the season on the injured list, Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sánchez should get his first Opening Day start. He’ll be followed in the rotation by Jesús Luzardo and Aaron Nola. Taijuan Walker worked in a swing role last year but seems more or less assured of a season-opening rotation spot.
That’d leave the fifth spot available in a camp battle. Top prospect Andrew Painter has a legitimate chance to win the job. Philly needed to add him to the 40-man roster this offseason because he’d reached Rule 5 eligibility. His stock has dipped a little from the time that he was widely viewed as the #1 pitching prospect in the sport. An elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery cost him the 2023-24 seasons.
Painter’s numbers at Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year weren’t as impressive. He surrendered a 5.40 ERA with a good but not elite 23.4% strikeout rate over 22 starts. He proved more susceptible to the home run than the Phillies would have liked, though his raw stuff remained very impressive. Painter averaged nearly 97 mph on his four-seam fastball while mixing in three breaking pitches (cutter, slider, curveball) and a changeup. He got whiffs on a strong 13% of his offerings. He remains one of the better pitching prospects in MLB and one of Philly’s top three minor league talents alongside shortstop Aidan Miller and outfielder Justin Crawford.
If Painter scuffles during Spring Training, the Phils can option him back to Lehigh Valley. They’re currently without many real alternatives to hold the fort until Wheeler’s season debut, however. Their other starters on the 40-man roster (e.g. Jean Cabrera, Yoniel Curet, Alan Rangel) also have little to no MLB experience. Non-roster invitees Tucker Davidson and Bryse Wilson don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Keller has starting experience but was signed to be a high-leverage reliever.
It’s understandable the Phillies want to leave the door open for Painter to win the job, especially if they anticipate Wheeler coming back within the first few weeks of the regular season. At the same time, even one more injury would leave the rotation looking precarious. Nola is coming off a bad season and Walker’s tenure in Philly has been a mixed bag. Wheeler is no guarantee to look the same as he did before the surgery. Adding some kind of swing depth is a must.
Phillies Have Offer Out To J.T. Realmuto
The Phillies secured a reunion with one of their key veteran free agents Tuesday morning when they signed Kyle Schwarber to a five-year deal, and now it appears their attention will return to their other veteran hitter who reached free agency last month. Philadelphia has an offer on the table for veteran catcher J.T. Realmuto, according to a report from Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. The details of that offer aren’t presently known, though The Athletic’s Matt Gelb adds that Realmuto is “expected” to ultimately return to Philadelphia in 2026 and suggests that he may do so on a two-year deal. Even so, Gelb makes clear that Realmuto is continuing to survey the free agent market.
The veteran backstop will play next season at the age of 35 and is coming off his worst season since his rookie campaign back in 2015. Realmuto slashed just .257/.315/.384 with a 94 wRC+ in 134 games this year. It’s the third-lowest on-base percentage and the lowest slugging percentage of his career, ignoring an 11-game cup of coffee during the 2014 season. Between Realmuto’s age and down season at the plate, it might seem likely that he would be poised to find a soft market in free agency this winter.
That’s not how things have played out, however. Realmuto has established a solid floor as a two-win regular behind the plate, and that’s allowed him to remain a valuable commodity due to a dearth of catching talent around the league. Danny Jansen and Victor Caratini are the next best options available in free agency behind Realmuto, but Jansen’s 72-game 2022 season is the only campaign in either player’s career where they’ve reached the 2.0 fWAR benchmark that Realmuto has established as a floor over the past three seasons.
Additionally, teams might be less concerned about Realmuto’s near-term future behind the plate given the fact that ABS is coming to the majors in 2026 by way of the challenge system; Realmuto has been a slightly below-average blocker and well above-average at controlling the running game behind the plate in recent years, but lackluster framing numbers have held back his overall defensive value. With the challenge system likely to reduce the impact of catcher framing, perhaps teams are a little more comfortable with using a catcher with a lackluster recent track record when it comes to pitch framing than they otherwise would have been.
Whether it’s Realmuto’s steady floor or the rule changes that will impact his job in 2026, he’s managed to garner some real interest around the league this winter. The Red Sox and Rangers are both known to have interest in Realmuto, though the fit in Texas has been downplayed by significant questions regarding the club’s ability to afford the expected price tag attached to the veteran. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $30MM guarantee for Realmuto, and as the Rangers look to cut payroll this winter it seems reasonable to expect that adding a $15MM salary to the books won’t be in the cards this winter barring a payroll-reducing trade elsewhere on the roster. The same is likely to go for other teams likely to pursue catching help this winter like the Rays and Padres.
That could make Realmuto’s market something of a two-horse race between Boston and Philadelphia, and with Carlos Narvaez locked in for the lion’s share of starts with the Red Sox next year it’s easy to see why the Phillies stand as the likely favorite. Should Philadelphia reunite with Realmuto this winter, however, both Zolecki and Gelb suggest that it might be difficult for the team to make other impact additions without first clearing salary elsewhere on the roster. Gelb notes that while Philadelphia is expected to carry a payroll north of $300MM in 2026, they’re already not too far off from that mark.
According to RosterResource, Philadelphia’s luxury tax payroll sits just under $289MM after the Schwarber deal. Assuming the Phillies plan on a payroll in the same vicinity as last year’s $314MM figure, that leaves the club with $25MM left to spend. Should Realmuto take up around $15MM of that money as the club projects, that would leave just $10MM for the team to use when revamping their outfield mix. That might not be enough to re-sign Harrison Bader, who the Phillies are known to have interest in, and could instead leave them looking at some of the lesser options available in a thin outfield market like Austin Hays, Mike Yastrzemski, Mike Tauchman, and Rob Refsnyder.
Of course, another option would be for the Phillies to look to shed payroll elsewhere on their roster in order to create financial flexibility. That the Phillies are planning to move on from Nick Castellanos this winter is one of the league’s worst-kept secrets. While they evidently plan to try and work out a trade involving the veteran in hopes of saving on at least some of his $20MM salary for next year, the club is lacking in leverage to get that sort of deal done and might wind up releasing him. Gelb suggests that a trade of someone like Alec Bohm or Matt Strahm could be a more likely way to save money, and either player would certainly have more value on the market than Castellanos.
Strahm is due $7.5MM in 2026 and has been a reliable setup man for the Phillies in each of the past three seasons, while Bohm has a 110 wRC+ at third base over the past two years and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $10.3MM in his final trip through arbitration this winter. Trading both players would free up nearly $18MM in the budget, which would be more than enough to re-up with Bader and Realmuto while still leaving some money left over to add someone like Willi Castro or Yoan Moncada to the mix who could help Edmundo Sosa handle the hot corner until top prospect Aidan Miller is ready to step into the big league lineup. Zolecki notes that Miller could be ready as soon as this coming summer, while fellow top prospects Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford figure to have every opportunity to break camp with the team on Opening Day.
Phillies Select Andrew Painter, Two Others
The Phillies added three prospects to their 40-man roster on Rule 5 protection day: pitchers Andrew Painter and Alex McFarlane and outfielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Their roster count sits at 33.
Painter, 23 in April, was one of the most obvious calls to be kept out of the Rule 5 draft. The 6’7″ right-hander was arguably the best pitching prospect in MLB a couple seasons ago. Painter’s stock has dropped over the last two and a half seasons because of injuries and an underwhelming performance at Triple-A. The Phillies were never going to let an arm as talented as Painter go in the Rule 5 draft, though.
A first-round pick out of high school in 2021, Painter turned in a 1.56 earned run average over 22 starts during his first full professional season. Painter reached Double-A in his age-19 season. The Phillies were open to him pitching his way to the big leagues by the end of the ’23 campaign, but an elbow injury intervened. Painter eventually required Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2024 minor league campaign (though he returned to get 15 2/3 innings of Arizona Fall League action).
Painter’s first season at the Triple-A level didn’t go well. He was tagged for a 5.40 ERA while walking almost 10% of batters faced. Painter gave up more than 1.5 home runs per nine innings. It wasn’t enough to earn a late-season debut, but he still sits around 97 MPH on his fastball and struck out a solid 23.4% of Triple-A opponents. He’s one of the better pitching prospects in the game and should debut next season. Baseball America ranks him the #2 prospect in the Philly system.
Rincones, 25 in March, is seventh on that list. He’s a left-handed hitting outfielder who turned in a .240/.370/.430 line across 506 Triple-A plate appearances. Rincones is a limited defender with concerns about his ability to hit lefty pitching, but he has big power in a 6’3″ frame and is clearly willing to wait until pitchers come into the zone.
McFarlane, a 24-year-old righty, is a former fourth-round pick out of the University of Miami. He spent much of the season in High-A, where he struggled to a 4.72 ERA through 74 1/3 frames. The minor league numbers aren’t encouraging, but the Phils still clearly like McFarlane as a developmental play and had plenty of roster space with which to work.
Jhoan Duran Trade Market Picking Up
3:39pm: The Mariners are also making a run at Duran today, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman, like Nightengale, adds that there is now an expectation that Duran will be moved at some point today.
2:16pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also writes that there’s a good chance of Duran being moved before the end of the day. Nightengale adds that the Twins have held out for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter in conversations with the Phillies. Philadelphia has been steadfast in not wanting to move Painter in prior trade discussions. It’s a big ask on Minnesota’s part, but that reflects Duran’s affordable control window. Passan had reported last week that the Twins wanted multiple top 100 caliber prospects for either Duran or Jax.
2:07pm: The likelihood of a Jhoan Duran trade seems to be rising. Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggested this afternoon that Minnesota’s talks with other teams on the star closer are “heating up.” Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears similarly and adds that the Twins could have an agreement on a Duran deal later today.
The Mariners and Yankees have been loosely tied to his market in recent days. Heyman reports that the Phillies and Red Sox are strongly involved and adds the Mets as another team that has at least shown some interest. Jon Morosi of MLB Network adds that the Twins have had conversations with the Dodgers concerning each of Duran, Griffin Jax and Louis Varland. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Padres are among the teams also known to be exploring the market for high-leverage bullpen help — though none has been linked to Duran specifically.
Duran is probably the prize of the reliever market, particularly with Emmanuel Clase no longer an option. The 27-year-old righty throws harder than anyone else in baseball aside from Mason Miller. His four-seam fastball sits in the triple digits, and he averages 97.5 MPH on his absurd sinker/splitter hybrid. Duran’s upper 80s knuckle-curve is an elite pitch in its own right. He has a 2.47 earned run average in parts of four big league seasons. That includes a 2.01 mark through 49 1/3 frames this season. He’s 16-18 in save chances, has struck out more than a quarter of opponents, and is second among relievers (minimum 40 innings) with a monster 65.4% ground-ball percentage.
The Twins are going to move a handful of impending free agents, including lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. The bigger question is whether they’ll trade any of their key controllable pieces. Duran is making $4.125MM and under arbitration control through 2027. Jax, a setup man with even bigger strikeout stuff, is also controllable for two seasons. Varland is still a season away from arbitration and comes with five years of club control, so it’d be very surprising if the Twins trade him.
Minnesota is also getting calls on right-hander Brock Stewart, writes ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The 33-year-old Stewart is playing for barely above the league minimum and has two additional seasons of arbitration control. He has punched out 30% of batters faced en route to a 2.38 ERA across 34 innings. Stewart’s age and notable injury history (elbow discomfort in 2023, arthroscopic shoulder surgery last summer) mean the Twins should be looking to sell high despite the affordable control window.
Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers
The Phillies are known to be focused on bullpen help, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski admitting as much last month. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports that the club is showing more willingness to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get more controllable arms.
As noted by Gelb, this is in contrast to the club’s recent bullpen pursuits. At last year’s deadline, the Phils acquired Carlos Estévez, a rental. This winter, their big addition was grabbing Jordan Romano on a one-year deal. They appear to be dreaming a bit bigger ahead of this year’s deadline. Gelb reports that they are expecting the Twins to sell and have their eyes on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax.
The Twins aren’t surefire sellers just yet. At 45-47, they are only three games out of a playoff spot. However, the payroll appears to be tight, as they were limited to fairly modest moves in the winter. They signed Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France to one-year deals worth a combined $10.25MM. With ownership exploring a sale of the franchise, the front office may not get much more wiggle room to add this summer.
Even if they fall back in the standings and move more clearly into seller mode, they wouldn’t have to trade Durán or Jax. Both pitchers can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. Both could be key parts of the club’s bullpen plans next year and in 2027 as well.
Durán is making $4.125MM and Jax $2.365MM. Both players will be due raises for next year but should still be underpaid. Jax has been dominant throughout his career, with a 2.39 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 63.9% ground ball rate. Jax also has strong numbers, particularly dating back to the start of last year. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, he has a 2.77 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.6% ground ball rate.
Talented relievers who reach free agency can earn eight-figure salaries, so there’s lots of value here for the Twins. However, if they decide this isn’t their year, there would be an argument for making moves. Reliever performance can be volatile and injuries are quite common nowadays. Though holding Durán and Jax for the future would be understandable, it’s a path that does have some risk.
For the Phillies, acquiring one or both of those arms would bolster their bullpen for this year and potentially for the future as well. Romano is a free agent after this season, so it could proactively address next year’s bullpen and perhaps give the club one less thing to do in the winter.
But as mentioned, going this route would require the club to give up more notable prospect talent. Gelb suggests that Andrew Painter is still unavailable but the club might not have any other truly untouchable prospects.
Aidan Miller gets a specific mention in the piece as an attractive guy who could be moved. The 27th overall pick of the 2023 draft, Miller just turned 21 years old but is already performing well in Double-A. In 64 games at that level, he has just seven home runs but has a 14.1% walk rate and has stolen 31 bases while holding down the shortstop position.
That combination of skills makes him a consensus top 50 prospect in the sport. It’s rare for those kinds of players to be available but perhaps the Phils have the right amount of urgency. They have been in the playoffs a lot lately with a strong roster but without getting a ring. Many of their core players are now between 32 and 36 years old, so perhaps the club wants to strike before the aging curve slopes more steeply.
Gelb mentions that the Phils probably wouldn’t flip someone like Mick Abel for a rental but it doesn’t seem like he’s completely unavailable. He also mentions Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait as prospects who could be of note in the coming weeks. Hendry Mendez, Alex McFarlane and Jean Cabrera get mentioned as intriguing potential secondary pieces.
Gelb also floats Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians as a fit similar to Durán or Jax. Clase has been Cleveland’s closer for years now but the club is in a tight spot this season. They are a bit behind the Twins, currently at 43-48 and 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. Clase is making just $4.5MM this year, $6MM next year and then there are two $10MM club options with $2MM buyouts.
Clase hasn’t been quite as dominant this year. His 22.9% strikeout rate is a couple of ticks below his 24.6% career rate. His 45.8% ground ball rate is still above average but far off his 58.8% career rate. Regardless, he has still been quite good and there’s loads of value in his contract. The Guardians could certainly keep him around beyond this campaign, though if the Phils are dangling notable prospects, they will probably answer the phone.
Another consideration of the Phils is shaking up their outfield, according to Gelb, including trading from their major league outfield. Both Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler have been somewhat disappointing at times this year and it’s been previously reported that the club may want to make room for prospect Justin Crawford.
Crawford is slashing .339/.410/.444 in Triple-A this year, despite only having two home runs. He won’t keep a .417 batting average on balls in play forever but he has an 11% walk rate and his speed has helped him steal 28 bases and run down balls in center field. Kepler, meanwhile, is hitting .213/.307/.378 on the season. Marsh started slow but has been heating up and is now at .265/.341/.378 for the whole year. He’s also controlled for two more seasons after this one, while Kepler is signed to a one-year deal.
That means Kepler is probably viewed as more disposable by the Phils but Marsh is surely more capable of bringing back a return that could help elsewhere on the roster. Kepler is making $10MM but Marsh just $3MM. Marsh is also a somewhat-capable center fielder, which is a weak spot in the league-wide market. His defense isn’t strong up the middle but a team without better options might take a chance on him.
If the Phils think Crawford can immediately come up and hit major league pitching, there’s an argument to flipping someone and bringing him up, though it’s a risky plan. Even the best prospects in the world can struggle when first exposed to the big leagues, so it would certainly be a gamble.
It’s an interesting dynamic with the deadline approaching. Dombrowski has a gunslinger reputation and there are some signs that his trigger finger is getting itchy. On the other hand, the flip side of the Phils having a veteran-laden roster is that they will need young players to step up in the near future. Dealing prospects would cut into Philadelphia’s ability to organically shift from one era to another but perhaps they focused enough on the present to make a bold move.
Photo courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Imagn Images
Jesus Luzardo Discusses Return From Injury
Phillies newly-acquired starter Jesús Luzardo chatted with the Philadelphia beat over Zoom on Monday. The southpaw finished the 2024 season on the injured list but indicated he’s going into next season at full strength.
“I feel 100%. I’ve felt 100% the whole offseason,” Luzardo said. “Last year, the back was really the problem. Now that we’ve got that all figured out, thankfully everything’s back to normal.” He added that he has had a typical offseason, so it seems fair to assume he’ll be a full go for Spring Training. A lumbar stress reaction sent Luzardo to the 15-day IL in the second half of June. It didn’t take long before Miami transferred him to the 60-day injured list. The Marlins shut him down for good in early August.
Luzardo’s final season with the Marlins was a disappointment. The 27-year-old lefty struggled to an even 5.00 earned run average over 12 starts. He struck out a slightly below-average 21.2% of batters faced. Luzardo missed a couple weeks early in the year with elbow tightness, but the back proved much more problematic.
A fully healthy version of Luzardo is a #2 or #3 caliber starter. He showed that upside in 2023. Luzardo turned in a 3.58 ERA while striking out 28.1% of opponents across 178 2/3 innings. Luzardo averaged nearly 97 MPH on his heater and missed plenty of bats with both his slider and changeup. His 14.1% overall swinging strike rate ranked sixth among qualified starting pitchers.
Philadelphia sent highly-regarded shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba to Miami as the headliner of the Luzardo trade. A return to his ’23 form would arguably give Philadelphia the best front five in MLB. He’ll slot behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola and alongside Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez in Rob Thomson’s staff. The depth isn’t great, though the Phils have added Joe Ross on a $4MM free agent deal to join Taijuan Walker as candidates for swing roles.
Pitching prospect Andrew Painter could eventually be a factor, but that won’t happen within the season’s first month or two. Philadelphia is being very cautious with the touted 21-year-old righty, whom they’ve seemingly kept untouchable in trade talks. Painter is working back from July 2023 Tommy John surgery. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Matt Gelb of the Athletic) last week that the Phils won’t have Painter pitch in games during Spring Training. He’ll continue throwing on the side in the spring and will subsequently need to build into game shape in the minors.
Painter made six appearances and tallied 15 2/3 innings in last year’s Arizona Fall League. That’s his only game action since the conclusion of the 2022 season. The Phillies will need to keep a close watch on his workload and certainly envision Painter as a factor in a potential pennant race. It’s understandable they’d prefer to start him slowly and concentrate on saving his bullets for what they hope will be another playoff push. That’s especially true now that Luzardo is in the fold, allowing them to open the season with both Ross and Walker in the ‘pen if their top five arms are healthy.
NL East Notes: Marlins, Urueta, Albernaz, Painter, Yepez
The Marlins are reportedly considering former bench coach Luis Urueta and Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz for their managerial vacancy, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Urueta is perhaps something of an unusual candidate since the Marlins already fired him as part of their wide-ranging purge of the coaching staff, training staff, and clubhouse attendants, though reports indicated that Urueta and Jon Jay were the only two coaches Miami had interest in bringing back. It isn’t known if the Marlins have conducted formal interviews with Urueta, Albernaz, or any other candidates, though in Albernaz’s case, his availability is limited until the Guardians’ playoff run is over.
Urueta served as the Marlins’ interim manager for the final two games of the season after a family health matter forced Skip Schumaker to miss what was the last weekend of his two-season tenure in Miami. Urueta was also the bench coach for those two seasons under Schumaker, and his previously MLB coaching job was a five-year stint on the Diamondbacks’ staff from 2018-22 (acting as bench coach for the last three of those seasons).
Albernaz is still in the midst of his first season as Cleveland’s bench coach, after previously working as a bullpen and catching coach for the Giants from 2019-22, and before that working in a variety of roles in the Rays’ farm system after his playing career ended in 2014. As Heyman notes, this resume makes him a known quantity to Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix (previously Tampa Bay’s general manager) and to assistant GM Gabe Kapler, formerly the Giants’ manager when Albernaz was on the staff. Albernaz was interviewed by the Guards last offseason about their own managerial vacancy before Stephen Vogt was hired, and thought enough of Albernaz to still bring him aboard onto Vogt’s staff.
More from around the NL East…
- Andrew Painter’s first outing in the Arizona Fall League saw the Phillies prospect allow two runs over 29 pitches and two innings of work, with Jack Vita of the Philadelphia Inquirer noting that three of Painter’s fastballs hit the 100mph threshold. It was the first game action of any kind for Painter since Spring Training 2023, when he suffered a UCL sprain that eventually led to Tommy John surgery that July. “The arm’s healthy and that was the biggest takeaway,” Painter told Vita and other reporters. “Everything felt like it was coming out good. I felt like my old self, so that’s all I can really take away from that.” While the surgery halted the progress of one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, Painter should be in line to make his MLB debut at some point in 2025, though obviously the Phillies will be cautious with his development. Painter is slated to throw 20 innings in AFL play and will start next season in the minors — the right-hander has yet to reach the Triple-A level and has only 28 1/3 frames of experience in Double-A ball.
- Juan Yepez, Joey Meneses, and Andres Chaparro are all right-handed hitting first basemen who are possibly best suited to DH duty, and these similarities make it unlikely that all three are on the Nationals‘ roster next season. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com thinks Yepez probably has the best chance of the trio, as Yepez hit a solid .283/.335/.429 over 249 plate appearances for Washington in 2024 and had particularly good splits against left-handed pitching. That might be enough to make the difference in deciding possible platoon or part-time roles for next year’s club.
White Sox Notes: Sizemore, Managerial Search, Crochet, Moncada
When the White Sox fired manager Pedro Grifol (along with bench coach Charlie Montoyo, assistant hitting coach Mike Tosar and third base coach Eddie Rodriguez), they handed Grady Sizemore the unenviable task of steering the ship for the remainder of a historically inept season. The Sox are currently tied for the modern era record with 120 losses and figure to establish a new benchmark for futility in the coming days. At the time Sizemore was elevated to the top job in the dugout, general manager Chris Getz plainly stated that the Sox would conduct a managerial search and hire a new skipper from outside the organization after the season. It now seems that Sizemore will at least be considered for the permanent post, however.
“Grady’s in consideration,” Getz said this week (link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). “He has a lot of traits we’re looking for.”
The Sox will still conduct an extensive search for their next skipper, Getz emphasized. Sizemore will be one of many candidates from what the GM called a “deep pool” that they’ve cultivated since Grifol’s dismissal. (It’s not clear whether that pool will include Double-A manager and former Sox reliever Sergio Santos, but he’s publicly thrown his hat into the ring and voiced a desire to manage the club.) Still, Getz noted that Sizemore’s “temperament is exactly what we needed” for the remainder of the current season and praised his rookie manager’s communication skills with the players. Van Schouwen adds that Sizemore has another year remaining on his coaching contract, so it seems likely he’ll remain with the organization beyond the ’24 season in at least some capacity.
ESPN’s Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers report that Sizemore had never voiced a desire to manage prior to being promoted to his current post, but his strong relationship with the players made him the front office’s pick. Time will tell whether that leads to a more solid appointment following the season.
More broadly, Olney and Rogers explore the staggering levels of dysfunction that have permeated the White Sox organization this season. It’s a deep dive into the team’s many failures across virtually all levels, highlighting clubhouse rifts that date back to the 2023 season and questionable decisions from owner Jerry Reinsdorf, among many other fascinating aspects.
As has been suggested in the past, Rogers and Olney write that former general manager Rick Hahn appeared to have zeroed in on A.J. Hinch as the team’s new manager following the 2020 season when Reinsdorf went over his head and hired longtime friend and former White Sox skipper Tony La Russa. One club source told the ESPN pair that Grifol inherited “as negative a place as I’ve seen anywhere” in the game when he took over as manager. La Russa remains involved with the organization as an advisor and, notably, gave positive feedback about Getz when Reinsdorf fired longtime baseball operations leaders Hahn and Kenny Williams. That’s not to say Getz was promoted based solely on La Russa’s recommendation, but it’s a notable bit of context given that he was tabbed the new GM after just nine days and with no external search conducted.
There are countless other bits throughout the ESPN piece making it a must-read piece for fans not only of the White Sox but any club. Rogers and Olney delve into some specifics on the trade deadline, noting that the Sox targeted top Phillies prospect Andrew Painter when Philadelphia was in pursuit of Garrett Crochet — a price at which the Phillies balked. The Dodgers, per the report, believed they could make a compelling offer without including catcher Dalton Rushing, but that offer “never developed” in the end. They instead acquired Jack Flaherty from Detroit in exchange for another top catching prospect, Thayron Liranzo, and current Tigers shortstop Trey Sweeney.
Crochet stayed in Chicago, as Getz and his staff were intent on getting their price met or revisiting the trade market for Crochet this winter. That’ll surely be the case, and Crochet will enter the season as perhaps the top trade candidate in the sport. The asking price will again be astronomical, but there will also theoretically be more bidders for him — in addition to a lack of concern about his status for pitching in the postseason and/or his reported desire for a contract extension.
Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. will be the last vestiges of the core that propelled the White Sox to playoff berths in 2020 and 2021. The rest have either been traded or, like third baseman Yoan Moncada, will become free agents at season’s end. Moncada has a $25MM club option, but the Sox will pay a $5MM buyout on that option and send him into free agency for the first time in his career.
Moncada, still just 29 years old, tells Bruce Levine of 670 The Score that he plans to play winter ball this offseason in order to showcase his health for the other 29 teams in the game. He missed nearly the entire season due to an adductor strain and has scarcely played since being reinstated from the 60-day injured list earlier this month. Chicago has been committed too getting the younger Miguel Vargas — acquired at the deadline in the three-team Erick Fedde/Michael Kopech/Tommy Pham swap — regular playing time at the hot corner even as he struggles mightily at the plate.
That’s left Moncada with just one plate appearance this month, despite the fact that he was activated back on Sept. 16. He’s hitting .275/.356/.400 on the season in a tiny sample of 45 plate appearances. On the one hand, it’s confounding that the Sox would leave a talented and fairly productive veteran out of the lineup as they try to stave off their inevitable date with history. On the other, Moncada clearly isn’t in the team’s plans going forward, so there’s some sense to allocating those at-bats to younger players.
Moncada once ranked as the top prospect in the sport. He signed with the Red Sox after leaving Cuba, taking home a massive $31.5MM signing bonus (which cost Boston a 100% tax under the former international free agent system, bringing their total price to $63MM). He landed in Chicago alongside Kopech as one two headliners in the trade sending Chris Sale to Fenway Park. It took a couple years, but by 2019 Moncada looked on the cusp of stardom. He swatted 25 homers while batting .315/.367/.548 in just 559 plate appearances. That breakout contributed to Chicago extending Moncada on a five-year, $70MM deal covering the 2020-24 seasons.
The contract hasn’t aged well. Moncada gave the Sox one healthy, productive season in 2021 but has otherwise spent more time on the injured list than in the lineup. Even when healthy, he’s been below-average at the plate more often than not. He’s appeared in 404 of 703 possible games during that five-year period and slashed .244/.326/.395 along the way. That’s league-average production on the whole (101 wRC+), but the vast majority of that positive output came during the aforementioned ’21 season.
A healthy showing in winter ball would surely help Moncada’s stock this offseason. He’s likely looking at a low-cost one-year contract with incentives baked in to potentially boost his guarantee. There’s clearly a talented player beneath all the recent health troubles. Moncada has had seasons worth five wins above replacement (2019) and four WAR (2021). He’s still on the right side of 30. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see him return to form in ’25 — almost assuredly with a new club — and then cash in on a multi-year deal the following offseason.