Prospect Notes: D’Backs, Indians, Chang, Perez
Since prospects are the backbone of any trade deadline season, here’s a look around the minor leagues…
- Both Baseball America’s organizational rankings and rival sources from around the industry have unflattering opinions about the Diamondbacks‘ minor league system, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. The prevailing view is that the D’Backs have several players who project as “a collection of back-end starters and relievers alongside utilitymen” but perhaps no impact regulars at the MLB level. With not much interest in their prospects, the D’Backs may need to deal from their 25-man roster to address their many needs this offseason, though that could also hurt their depth.
- Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer get much of the attention when discussing Indians prospects, though beyond those two top names, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer lists several intriguing minor leaguers in the Tribe’s system. Any of these youngsters could be of interest to the Brewers, as Pluto cites the recent reports of the Indians’ interest in Jonathan Lucroy and/or Milwaukee’s top relievers.
- One Indians prospect not mentioned by Pluto is shortstop Yu-Cheng Chang, who ESPN’s Buster Olney reports was discussed by the Yankees when the two sides discussed Aroldis Chapman. (The Tribe looked like the possible favorites for Chapman at one point today, though now it looks like the star closer will be going to the Cubs.) Chang, who hails from Taiwan and turns 21 in August, has put up solid hitting numbers at high-A ball this season and was ranked by Baseball America as Cleveland’s 16th-best prospect prior to 2016.
- Cuban third baseman Yanio Perez has drawn interest from the Astros, Padres, Rangers, Reds and Rockies, as per a report from MLB Pipeline (Twitter link). The 20-year-old was ranked by Pipeline as the 10th-best player available in this year’s July 2 international market, and he is known to have impressive raw power, makeup and above-average speed. Perez is subject to international bonus pool guidelines.
Diamondbacks To Promote Braden Shipley
The Diamondbacks are calling up well-regarded pitching prospect Braden Shipley from Triple-A Reno to start Monday against Milwaukee, according to ESPN.com.
Shipley, 24, has been a member of the Arizona organization since it selected him 15th overall in the 2013 amateur draft. Baseball America ranked the right-hander as the 26th-best prospect in baseball after the 2014 campaign, but he fell to 77th following last season. BA noted then (subscription required and recommended) that Shipley struggled with mechanics and consistency issues with his breaking ball in the first half of 2015 with Double-A Mobile. But Shipley still produced quality results last season, especially in the second half, and BA lauded his ability to maintain his arm speed and hit 93 to 96 mph on the radar gun with his fastball. Shipley also possesses a plus, hard-to-identify curveball that sits around 84 mph and a solid changeup that ranges from 83 to 85 mph. Additionally, his athleticism and background as a shortstop – where he played early on at the University of Nevada before turning his focus to pitching – make him a formidable fielder. With all of that considered, at the end of last season, BA regarded Shipley as a potential No. 3 starter in the majors. Given that he has since risen in the outlet’s rankings, the same likely holds true now. MLB.com is also bullish on Shipley, placing him 58th in its prospect rankings and offering a scouting report similar to BA’s.
In the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this season, Shipley has recorded a 3.70 ERA, 5.81 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 over 119 1/3 innings. He’ll hope to match or better those numbers with last-place Arizona, whose rotation has been among the majors’ worst this year. Two of their starters, ace Zack Greinke and Rubby De La Rosa, have been on the disabled list for extended periods of time. Meanwhile, high-profile offseason pickup Shelby Miller is in Reno after performing horribly during the first few months of the season and might not last much longer with the organization.
If Shipley takes advantage of his opportunity and stays in the majors for the rest of the year, he’ll fall short of Super Two status. The maximum 2016 service time Shipley can accrue at this point is 70 days. He’ll be eligible for arbitration after the 2019 campaign and under team control through 2022 if he remains in Arizona for the remainder of the season.
Diamondbacks Make Shelby Miller Available
Less than eight months after the Diamondbacks traded Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair to the Braves for Shelby Miller, Arizona has let teams know that the right-hander is available, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter). Not surprisingly, the Diamondbacks’ asking price for the 25-year-old Miller isn’t nearly as high as the cost they paid for him, according to Passan.
Miller was a quality option from 2013-15 as a member of the Cardinals and Braves, with whom he combined to post a 3.27 ERA, 7.48 K/9, 3.25 BB/9 and 42.3 percent ground-ball rate over 561 2/3 innings. Because of that consistent effectiveness, the Braves first deemed him worthy enough to receive in exchange for star outfielder Jason Heyward in December 2014. The Diamondbacks then decided he warranted a Swanson, Inciarte and Blair package a year later.
While the Diamondbacks thought they were landing an in-his-prime, top-of-the-rotation starter, their move to give up Swanson (the No. 1 pick in last year’s draft), a solid center fielder in Inciarte and Blair (a 2014 first-round selection) for Miller was universally derided. No one expected Miller to experience such a precipitous fall from grace, though, as the D-backs optioned him to Triple-A on July 14 after a nightmarish 69 1/3 innings in the majors. In his first and potentially only season in Arizona, Miller has logged an ugly 7.14 ERA. A lousy K/9 (6.49) and BB/9 (4.41), not to mention a dip in velocity, have contributed to his struggles. He also missed some time earlier this year with a finger injury.
Thanks in part to its disastrous Miller gamble, an Arizona team that had designs on a playoff run entering the season is in last place in the NL West at 40-57, 18 games behind division-leading San Francisco and 13 out of a Wild Card position. And now the Tony La Russa- and Dave Stewart-led franchise looks ready to bail on Miller, who’s on a $4.35MM salary this year and is scheduled to go through arbitration two more times.
Cafardo’s Latest: Sox, D-backs, Royals, Marlins, Twins, Phillies
With the free-falling White Sox open to selling off veterans, power-hitting third baseman Todd Frazier could end up switching uniforms by the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Frazier is on a reasonable $7.5MM salary this year and will make one more trip through arbitration in the offseason. His .212/.300/.476 batting line is far from great, but the right-handed Frazier is second in the majors in home runs (28). Meanwhile, the team’s second-best starting pitcher, lefty Jose Quintana, is available for an “overwhelming” package, a major league source told Cafardo. The highly effective Quintana, 27, is controllable and affordable through 2020, and has logged a 3.13 ERA, 8.15 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9 in 123 2/3 innings this season.
More from Cafardo as the deadline draws closer:
- Regarding the possibility of the Diamondbacks trading star right-hander Zack Greinke in the first season of a six-year, $206.5MM contract, a source told Cafardo, “It would take a great return of players and the team would have to assume the entire contract. The Diamondbacks wouldn’t pay a dime.” It seems as if Greinke will stay put, then. Before landing on the disabled list with an oblique injury earlier this month, the soon-to-be 33-year-old recorded a 3.62 ERA, 7.49 K/9, 1.73 BB/9 and 47.6 percent ground-ball rate across his first 109 1/3 innings as a Diamondback.
- The Royals have interest in Red Sox righty Clay Buchholz, who’s currently in their bullpen, but Boston would have to pick up large portion of his remaining $13MM salary for 2016 in a trade. Buchholz’s contract also includes a $13.5MM club option for next season. In 20 appearances (13 starts) and 82 2/3 innings this season, the 31-year-old has compiled a sky-high 6.10 ERA to pair with ugly strikeout and walk rates (5.99 and 4.03, respectively, per nine).
- The Marlins scouted Red Sox southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez and a couple of Twins – right-hander Ricky Nolasco and left-hander Tommy Milone – in Boston earlier this week. It looks as though the 23-year-old Rodriguez is unavailable, per Cafardo. Nolasco, a former Marlin, is on a $12MM salary through next season and has continued a trend of having difficulty preventing runs this year (5.40 ERA) through 116 2/3 innings. Milone has also posted a lofty ERA (4.71 in 49 2/3 frames), though he carries a more modest salary of $4.5MM.
- Phillies righty Jeremy Hellickson is another candidate to join the Marlins, and southpaw reliever Mike Dunn could be part of a deal. As a 31-year-old pending free agent, Dunn would seemingly be an odd pickup for the rebuilding Phillies, however.
Diamondbacks Considering Managerial Change
The Diamondbacks are considering replacing skipper Chip Hale, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Tim Montemayor of Arizona’s AM 1060 first tweeted that there were rumors circulating.
If Arizona goes ahead and moves Hale aside, Triple-A manager Phil Nevin would likely take his place at the helm of the big league club, per the report. General manager Dave Stewart declined to comment on the matter when asked about the rumors by Rosenthal.
Hale, 51, has managed the D-Backs since the start of last year, when he was selected by Stewart and chief baseball officer (and Hall-of-Fame manager) Tony LaRussa to run the club on the field. Things seemed on the upswing after year one, as Arizona showed improvement and logged a 79-83 record. Indeed, the organization picked up Hale’s 2017 option at the start of camp this spring.
The promising showing in 2015 emboldened the organization to make several major additions over the winter. That included, most prominently, the stunning signing of Zack Greinke and the acquisition of Shelby Miller for a trio of critical assets.
With over half of the games in the books this year, it is evident that things haven’t gone as hoped. Arizona sits in the NL West basement at the moment with a 40-55 record on the year. It would be hard to pin all of that on Hale, of course. Star center fielder A.J. Pollock was lost during camp, Miller has been dreadful (as have other recent acquisitions like Yasmany Tomas), and the club has somewhat predictably failed in its outfield defense — among other areas of concern.
NL Notes: Padres, Upton, Cards, D-backs, Rockies
The resurgence of Padres outfielder Melvin Upton Jr. is “opening eyes,” according to Friars general manager AJ Preller, who told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that the 31-year-old is garnering trade interest as a potential 30/30 player (Twitter link). Upton has racked up 16 home runs and 20 steals this year, so he at least has an outside shot at joining the 30/30 club. Overall, he has hit an above-average .262/.311/.454 through 353 trips to the plate this season. Dating back to last year, Upton has accounted for 3.2 fWAR while logging 581 plate appearances, thereby reviving his career after back-to-back poor seasons in Atlanta. The longtime Ray is expensive, though, with a $15.45MM salary this year and $16.45MM coming his way next season.
More from the National League:
- Given Cardinals reliever Trevor Rosenthal‘s ongoing struggles, manager Mike Matheny isn’t ruling out sending the right-hander to Triple-A. “You never know how guys are going to respond,” Matheny told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “We’ve got keep trying to figure out whatever it is we have to do to get him right. I don’t think you take anything off the table.” Rosenthal would join Kolten Wong and Randal Grichuk as the third Redbird to unexpectedly receive a demotion this year, though the latter two responded well to theirs and are now back in the majors. A late-game ace with the Cardinals from 2012-15, Rosenthal has posted some ugly numbers – namely a 5.64 ERA, 7.12 BB/9 and 15.8 percent home run rate – leading the team to remove him from the closer role earlier this summer. Rosenthal also picked up his fourth blown save of 2016 on Friday, when he retired only one of four seventh-inning batters and allowed an earned run.
- In light of Rosenthal’s troubles, the Cardinals will search for bullpen aid before the Aug. 1 trade deadline, writes Hummel. General manager John Mozeliak doesn’t seem particularly worried, though, saying, “That’s not necessarily a thing (where) we have to do that.” The Cardinals rank 10th in the majors in bullpen ERA (3.66) and 11th in K-BB percentage (14.8). Help from within could come from star right-handed prospect Alex Reyes, Mozeliak stated, though the executive added that Reyes is likelier to receive a promotion as a starter. For now, Mozeliak is content with Reyes, 21, continuing to develop at the Triple-A level in Memphis, where he has accumulated 41 1/3 innings this year. The flame-throwing Reyes is Baseball America‘s second-ranked prospect.
- Diamondbacks standout center fielder A.J. Pollock is making “ridiculously good” progress in his recovery from April surgery to repair a fractured elbow, and he expects to play this season, he told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. “With these types of injuries, I’ve done research in the past and for some reason you don’t always see bone-to-bone healing,” Pollock said. “Maybe you see a little bit, but usually you have kind of fibers that bridge the gap. They don’t expect 100 percent bone-to-bone healing, but if you can get 50, 60 percent … but I’m way past that. I’m up in the 80s or 90s.” A return to the D-backs is nowhere near imminent for Pollock, notes Piecoro, who points out that the 28-year-old is only hitting off a tee right now, still has to rebuild his throwing strength and will need to embark on a multi-week rehab assignment upon receiving medical clearance to come back.
- The Rockies’ next 16 games might decide whether they hold or sell at the deadline, opines Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. At 42-48, Colorado sits six games out of a Wild Card position, but it has a chance to inch closer with its next eight matchups coming against the bottom-feeding Braves and Rays. If not, outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon, left-handed starter Jorge De La Rosa and southpaw reliever Boone Logan are among the players the Rockies could ship out, Saunders contends.
D’backs Willing To Trade Relievers, But Not Starters
Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart is willing to deal relievers Daniel Hudson and Tyler Clippard, but not starters Patrick Corbin and Robbie Ray, Nick Piecoro and Sarah McLellan of the Arizona Republic write. (Stewart had previously told Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball he wasn’t interested in dealing Corbin.) The Diamondbacks have already traded Brad Ziegler and appear amenable to continuing to trade from their bullpen, but it looks like their starters are off limits.
“We’ve gotten calls, and you have to call to ask, but I don’t really have an ear to listen,” says Stewart, speaking of Corbin and Ray. “If you want to talk about Hudson or Clippard, I’ll listen. That’s pretty much how it is.”
Stewart also says that, at this point, he’s unlikely to complete an extension for Hudson before the deadline, putting pressure on the Diamondbacks to deal him while they can. (Last month, Stewart named Hudson and Ziegler as potential extension candidates.)
“Once we get past that deadline, there’s uncertainty for the organization to be able to sign these guys,” says Stewart. “I don’t think I can put the organization in a position to not get some value back for Huddy.”
Stewart’s willingness to deal Hudson and Clippard but not Corbin or Ray makes sense, given the free agency timelines of the players involved. The Diamondbacks’ 2016 season appears to be mostly lost, with the team posting a 38-53 record so far, but Corbin and Ray could easily be significant contributors in future seasons. Corbin can’t become a free agent until after 2018, while Ray isn’t eligible until after 2020.
Hudson, meanwhile, is eligible for free agency this coming winter, while Clippard can become a free agent after 2017. Hudson has had a modestly productive season at best (4.91 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 in 33 innings) and might not fetch much on the trade market. Clippard has been better, with a 2.97 ERA, 3.0 BB/9 and strong strikeout numbers (11.1 K/9) that help compensate for his usual fly-ball tendencies. Given his long track record of productivity and experience closing, he ought to be able to net the Diamondbacks a nice return.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Archer, Chapman, CarGo, Rangers, Managers
While the Rays are fielding some calls on righty Chris Archer, the kinds of offers coming through the line have been good only for “comedic value,” a source tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). The report certainly suggests that Tampa Bay isn’t interested in the kind of buy-low offers it is apparently receiving. The young righty hasn’t quite been himself this year, but remains quite talented and controlled at a very cheap rate.
Here’s more from Rosenthal:
- The Yankees are discussing the possibility of trying to extend closer Aroldis Chapman, according to Rosenthal. Talks to this point are just internal and haven’t been raised with Chapman’s representatives, but the club isn’t set on selling off big league assets over the next few weeks. Team president Randy Levine maintained to Rosenthal that the Yankees like their team and won’t make a call on trading away veterans until much closer to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.
- Carlos Gonzalez is perhaps the best player among current trade candidates, but the Rockies don’t feel the need to get out from underneath his contract in the same manner they did with Troy Tulowitzki, so he’s far from a lock to be moved. CarGo is batting an excellent .318/.367/.557 this season, and it’s interesting to note that over the past 365 days, he’s hitting .304/.354/.592 with a hefty 46 homers in 156 games played. His $17MM salary in 2016 and $20MM salary in 2017 are both reasonable sums for that level of production.
- The Rangers were in on Drew Pomeranz before his trade to the Red Sox, and they’re in on Rich Hill now that Pomeranz is off the market. The Rangers could also use an upgrade behind the plate, writes Rosenthal, who notes that Jonathan Lucroy would be preferable to Derek Norris, but the latter of the two is available as well. The Rangers, though, “probably do not view” any of the available trade candidates as worthy players to surrender top-tier young talent like Jurickson Profar or Joey Gallo.
- Some within the industry have told Rosenthal that Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale “could be in imminent danger” of losing his job, but D-backs sources denied the notion when asked, he continues. Rosenthal lists Bryan Price and Walt Weiss as skippers that are safe for now but may be seeking new employment come season’s end, and he notes that Robin Ventura, Brad Ausmus, John Farrell and Terry Collins could all be in the same boat if their clubs finish the season poorly.
Heyman’s Latest: Hosmer, Corbin, O’s, Astros, Brewers, Rangers
Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports covers a lot of ground in his latest Inside Baseball column, beginning with a look at the Royals and the closing window of Kansas City’s core players (Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas). Hosmer is controllable through 2017, and while the Royals would love to keep him in K.C. forever, Heyman writes that Royals brass feels Hosmer and agent Scott Boras could seek $20MM+ on a 10-year deal. Those numbers may sound jarring for Hosmer, especially in light of Brandon Belt‘s $79MM price tag this offseason, but a pair of GMs to whom Heyman spoke invoked contractual comparisons of Jason Heyward and Jacoby Ellsbury when looking ahead to Hosmer’s market. Hosmer will be entering his age-28 season when he hits the free-agent market, so he’ll certainly have youth on his side in addition to consistently improving performance.
More from the lengthy column…
- While the Diamondbacks have received trade interest in left-hander Patrick Corbin, GM Dave Stewart bluntly tells Heyman that he is “not moving Corbin.” Moving Corbin right now would be selling exceptionally low on a highly talented left-hander in the midst of a down season; Corbin looked like a budding star with the D-backs in 2013 and barely missed a beat in 2015 when returning from 2014 Tommy John surgery, but he’s currently sporting a 4.94 ERA on the season.
- The Orioles continue to hunt for starting pitching and have looked at Rich Hill and also checked in on Drew Pomeranz prior to his trade to the Red Sox. Baltimore, though, is pretty low on top-end prospects, which could make it difficult to submit the best offer for Hill, who’s been in high demand this summer.
- Astros right-hander Scott Feldman is available in trades, according to Heyman, and some rival executives believe that Houston would be open to moving Pat Neshek and Josh Fields despite their recent surge back into the division race. Feldman has handled a shift to the bullpen with aplomb and is currently sporting a 2.56 ERA with an improved 6.2 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate in 52 2/3 innings. He’s earning $8MM in the final season of a front-loaded three-year, $30MM contract. Neshek has a $7.8MM club option for the 2017 season ($500K buyout) and has a strong 2.54 ERA, though metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all feel he’s been fortunate to post that mark this season. Fields is the opposite, with strong peripherals laying underneath an unsightly 6.89 ERA. He’s controllable through 2018.
- There “hasn’t been much buzz lately” when it comes to the potential trades of Brewers stars Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun, per Heyman, who notes that Lucroy again voiced at the All-Star festivities that he’d like to play for a contending club. Heyman adds that relievers Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress figure to draw plenty of interest, though there’s no firm indication that Milwaukee is open to dealing either of those controllable bullpen cogs.
- A club that spoke to the Rangers about trades came away with the impression that Joey Gallo isn’t very attainable. Gallo hasn’t been definitively mentioned as a trade candidate, but there’s been plenty of speculation about whether he could be included in a win-now move for the Rangers, especially in the wake of Adrian Beltre‘s extension earlier this season. Heyman adds that the Rangers have investigated “basically all available starters,” which lines up with reports from recent weeks linking them to the likes of Ervin Santana, Pomeranz, Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore and others.
Diamondbacks Option Shelby Miller To Triple-A
The Diamondbacks announced tonight that they have optioned struggling right-hander Shelby Miller to Triple-A Reno. Arizona did not announce a corresponding move at this time.
Just four months ago, this would’ve been an unthinkable outcome for Miller, who was coming off his finest season as a Major Leaguer. The 25-year-old posted a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 205 innings in his lone season with the Braves after coming to Atlanta in the December 2014 Jason Heyward swap. That performance led the D-backs to part with an king’s ransom — center fielder Ender Inciarte, 2014 first-round pick Aaron Blair and 2015 No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson — to acquire Miller in a trade this summer.
However, the 2016 has been a disaster for Miller, whose 7.14 ERA is the third-highest in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched. He’s missed some time this season with a finger injury but struggled even in his return from the disabled list, posting a 7.23 ERA over his final four starts prior to the All-Star break. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets that Miller said he understands why he’s being sent down and candidly added that he was surprised it hadn’t happened sooner.
Miller’s trade was among the most talked-about swaps in recent history, as many considered the price paid by the D-backs to be exorbitant in nature. However, even the most adamant detractors of the deal have been surprised by the struggles of Miller, which have played a major role in what has been a disappointing season for the Diamondbacks overall. Arizona lost center fielder A.J. Pollock, one of the game’s top all-around players, for much (if not all) of the 2016 season before Opening Day, and it watched $206.5MM starter Zack Greinke falter out of the gates as well. The D-backs have also lost right-hander Rubby De La Rosa to the disabled list for most of the season to date, and the club’s projected No. 3 starter, Patrick Corbin, has had issues of his own. While Corbin’s woes haven’t been as pronounced as those of Miller, he’s currently toting a 4.94 ERA after pitching to a 3.47 mark between his two most recent healthy seasons (2015 and 2013).
The end result for the Diamondbacks has been a 38-52 record and a last-place standing in the NL West that few would have predicted following their flashy offseason. The D-backs have reluctantly begun to operate as sellers, having already traded Brad Ziegler to the Red Sox.