Diamondbacks Rumors

D-Backs, Rangers Meeting To Discuss Potential Pitching Trades

By Steve Adams | December 9, 2015 at 12:01pm CDT

The Diamondbacks and Rangers will meet today to discuss potential trade scenarios surrounding the Rangers’ stock of quality relievers and the D-backs’ new surplus of starting pitching options, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reported earlier today that the two sides have been discussing a potential deal. Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com hears that Archie Bradley isn’t likely to be traded by the Diamondbacks after the team already parted with Aaron Blair (Twitter link).

Keone Kela, in particular, is drawing league-wide interest, according to Grant, though it’s difficult to envision the Rangers willingly parting with five years of the standout rookie, barring a substantial return. It was recently reported that the Rangers were open to including breakout closer Shawn Tolleson in trade talks, and the team also has an impressive stockpile of arms with considerable club control, including Jake Diekman, Sam Dyson and Tom Wilhelmsen (in addition to Kela and Tolleson).

Arizona has a number of mid-rotation options that could be of interest to the Rangers, including Rubby De La Rosa, Chase Anderson, Zack Godley and Robbie Ray, with right-hander Braden Shipley representing a high-quality, upper-level prospect that could contribute in the near future. (Although, the Rangers would presumably want more immediate rotation help were they to deal from their impressive bullpen.)

Of the pitchers listed from either team each (with the exception of Wilhelmsen) can be controlled for at least three more seasons, so either club could be picking up a relatively long-term asset should the two sides agree to a swap involving Major League parts. Suffice it to say, the specific permutation of a trade between the two sides is impossible to peg at this juncture, making speculation a perhaps futile (but nonetheless entertaining) endeavor. General managers Jon Daniels and Dave Stewart will have no shortage of options to discuss, but the two do indeed seem to be a good fit on paper.

West Notes: Giants, Gordon, Giles, Santiago, Wilson, Rangers, DBacks, Padres

By Jeff Todd | December 9, 2015 at 9:18am CDT

The Giants are seen as the frontrunner for outfielder Alex Gordon by some “rival evaluators,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. One other possible target for GM Bobby Evans and co. is Dexter Fowler, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Of course, we’ve also heard San Francisco connected to some of the other top free agent outfielders available, so there still seems to be plenty of uncertainty and opportunity for the organization in that area.

Reported Asking Prices For Jose Fernandez

By Steve Adams | December 9, 2015 at 8:28am CDT

TODAY: The Marlins “discussed a deal” with Arizona that would have brought back Corbin, Swanson, Inciarte, Blair, and infielder Brandon Drury, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. That deal only “collapsed” when Arizona struck its trade with the Braves, he says, and the talks could illustrate a real willingness to trade Fernandez.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports adds (Twitter links) that at some point in the talks, Miami sought a six-player return that would’ve included Corbin and three other players who played in the majors last year for Arizona.

YESTERDAY: The asking price on Jose Fernandez is known to be sky-high, but reports tonight in the wake of the D-backs’ Shelby Miller blockbuster further illustrate the unlikely nature of a Fernandez trade. According to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, the Marlins were working on a trade with the Diamondbacks that would’ve included Patrick Corbin and Dansby Swanson in talks for Fernandez (Twitter link). Beyond that already-steep starting point, the Marlins asked that three other prospects be included in the deal, he adds.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Repbulic tweets that the package the D-backs sent to Atlanta to pry Miller away — Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair — “would not have come close” to what the team would’ve needed to acquire Fernandez from Miami, citing D-backs officials.

Similarly, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports (also on Twitter) that the Marlins asked the Dodgers to include not one or two but all three of Julio Urias, Joc Pederson and Corey Seager in addition to another pair of players. While reports earlier today indicated that L.A. was attempting to get a third team involved to find a creative means of acquiring Fernandez, that price tag seems like such a lofty starting point that it’s tough to even imagine talks becoming serious in nature.

Many will scoff at the reported asking prices listed here, but the Marlins have little incentive to trade Fernandez now without an offer that is impossible to refuse. We also don’t know whether other pieces were in play that would’ve gone from Miami to those clubs.

Realistic asks or not, the Marlins are placing an almost unmatchable asking price on Fernandez, it would seem, which lines up with most reports from the past few days. While he’s an oft-mentioned name, the most common refrain connected to Fernandez is that the Marlins aren’t trying to move but are instead simply open to being overwhelmed by an offer for their young ace. It’s easy to forget that Fernandez is still just 23 years old — younger than NL Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant. And, to this point in his career, Fernandez has pitched to a 2.40 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate.

Three years of affordable control over a 23-year-old starter with that track record of dominance ranks among the most valuable commodities in all of baseball, although one can only wonder how high the asking price would’ve been had the Marlins kept Fernandez in the minors for a couple of weeks to open the 2013 season. Because Fernandez was a 20-year-old that hadn’t pitched above Class-A Advanced at the time, no one would’ve questioned the move, and Miami could have subsequently delayed Fernandez’s free agency until after the 2019 season. Instead, Fernandez received a full year of service time in 2013 and is now on track to become a free agent after 2018.

Diamondbacks Acquire Shelby Miller

By Steve Adams | December 9, 2015 at 8:04am CDT

WEDNESDAY: The teams have officially announced the deal.

TUESDAY: After more than a week of rampant speculation, the Shelby Miller blockbuster that many anticipated has arrived. The Braves on Tuesday reportedly agreed to send Miller and left-handed relief prospect Gabe Speier to the Diamondbacks in exchange for outfielder Ender Inciarte, right-handed pitching prospect Aaron Blair and shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson, the latter of whom was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft back in June.

Miller, 25, has been one of the hottest commodities on the trade market for the past seven to 10 days. The D-backs will control him for at least three seasons via the arbitration process — he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn just under $5MM next season — and he’ll give Arizona another potent arm to pair with Patrick Corbin and newly signed ace Zack Greinke atop a dramatically improved rotation.

As many as 20 teams reportedly checked in on Miller, who will ultimately spend just one year in Atlanta after being the main piece received in last winter’s Jason Heyward blockbuster with the Cardinals. The former first-round pick and top 10 prospect enjoyed a strong season in 2015 with the Braves, compiling a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in a career-high 205 2/3 innings. It should be noted, though, that Miller’s dominant overall numbers are propped up, to some extent, by an unsustainable 1.48 ERA through his first 10 starts. While Miller was still very solid after that stretch — he logged a 3.77 ERA with a 122-to-55 K/BB ratio across his final 138 1/3 frames — fielding-independent-pitching metrics peg him as more of a mid- to upper-3.00s ERA type of pitcher. Whether he looks more like the front-line arm he appeared to be in 2015 or the steady mid-rotation arm those metrics peg him to be, Miller unequivocally has value, but the Diamondbacks have indeed paid a steep price to acquire his services.

Inciarte (pictured below) is the Major League ready piece of the deal for Atlanta. He’ll bring five years of club control to the Braves and can immediately slot into center field there, although he also has extensive experience at both corner positions. Inciarte, 25, was largely unheralded as a prospect but has batted a combined .292/.329/.386 in his first two Major League seasons, including a stellar .303/.338/.408 line in 2015. Inciarte is an elite defender at any of the three outfield spots; he’s amassed 52 Defensive Runs Saved in just 1972 innings at the Major League level or, if you prefer, +33.7 runs, per Ultimate Zone Rating. While he lacks much in the way of power and may see his surface-level rate stats decline by moving away from the hitters’ haven that is Phoenix’s Chase Field, Inciarte will help the Braves’ chances both in 2016 and into the next planned phase of the team’s status as contenders.

Swanson, 22 in February, is barely six months removed from being the first overall pick in the 2015 draft. A shortstop out of Vanderbilt, Swanson spent the summer playing with Arizona’s short-season Class-A affiliate in Hillsboro, where he batted .289/.394/.482 in 22 games/99 plate appearances. His inclusion significantly enhances the deal for Atlanta, who recently parted ways with shortstop Andrelton Simmons. While Swanson won’t be ready to jump to the Majors in 2016 — at least not early on — he gives the Braves a potential Simmons replacement at some point in the 2017 or 2018 season and joins 18-year-old (19 in January) Ozhaino Albies as an elite shortstop prospect rising through the ranks of the Atlanta farm system.

MLB.com rated Swanson as the No. 10 prospect in all of Major League Baseball at the end of the season, and Swanson unsurprisingly ranked as the organization’s top prospect according to both that outlet and Baseball America. BA’s scouting report noted that Swanson has no weaknesses in his toolkit, calling him a prototypical No. 2 hitter that has 15-homer pop with plus speed and a future as a solid, if not above-average defender at shortstop. MLB.com notes that most scouts think he can stick at shortstop, adding that he has off-the-charts makeup and could be in the Majors by 2018. As a bonus for the Braves, Swanson’s Georgia roots — he attended high school in Marietta — figure to make him popular with the Atlanta fanbase.

Blair, 23, is a little more than two years removed from being a first-rounder himself (albeit, a compensatory first-round pick). Arizona selected him 36th overall in 2003, and he currently ranks 61st on MLB.com’s Top 100. BA rated him as the D-backs’ No. 2 prospect, trailing only the aforementioned Swanson. The Marshall University product split the 2015 season between Double-A and Triple-A, pitching to a combined 2.92 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. BA notes that he has a 91-95 mph heater with heavy sink that generates plenty of grounders in addition to a curveball that misses bats and a changeup that he uses to pitch to contact. MLB.com and BA both agree that Blair is nearly big league ready and should debut in 2016, with both calling him a potential mid-rotation starter.

In addition to Miller, the D-backs will receive the 20-year-old Speier, who spent this past season pitching at Class-A, where he recorded a 2.86 ERA with 7.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 44 innings of relief work. Speier, a 19th-round pick in 2013, is already plenty familiar with being traded. He was originally selected by Boston but traded to the Tigers a year ago (almost to the day) alongside Yoenis Cespedes in exchange for Rick Porcello. Detroit shipped him to Atlanta a couple of weeks ago in the Cameron Maybin trade, and he’s now on the move for the third time in less than three full years as a pro.

By making this trade, the Diamondbacks have exhibited their clear desire to win now. The presence of Greinke, Corbin and Miller atop their rotation gives Arizona arguably the best rotation in the National League West, but the price they’ve paid is sizable. Perhaps more notably, it continues to display that GM Dave Stewart, VP De Jon Watson and chief baseball office Tony La Russa value draft picks in a considerably different manner than a number of their baseball ops peers around the league. Arizona forfeited its 2016 first-round pick in order to sign Greinke and has now traded the 2015 top pick (Swanson) in addition to its 2014 first-rounder, Touki Toussaint, in a deal that many felt amounted to a salary dump to rid themselves of Bronson Arroyo’s contract. With this recent string of moves, the D-backs have moved three of their past four highest draft picks and foregone the right to pick 13th in next year’s draft.

Of course, Arizona will now have an impressive rotation trio to support MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt and the underrated A.J. Pollock, who will now probably share the outfield with David Peralta and Yasmany Tomas with Inciarte in Atlanta. The D-backs are aggressively branding the 2016 as an “evolutionary” year, and the moves they’ve made bear out the fact that the coming seasons will carry significantly greater expectations than the team has had in quite some time.

For the Braves, the move further adds to the ever-growing stockpile of young talent that president of baseball operations John Hart and GM John Coppolella have accumulated over the past calendar year. While the loss of Miller undeniably hurts the club’s pitching staff, one could potentially make the argument that the addition of Inciarte to the 2016 roster offsets much of the value the team is losing by subtracting Miller’s highly talented arm from the roster. And, adding a pair of high-impact prospects, one of whom (Blair) could make an impact as soon as 2016, further accelerates the rebuilding effort to align with the club’s stated desire of contending in 2017 — the first season of the newly constructed SunTrust Park.

The huge stockpile of minor league talent and the shedding of sizable financial commitments — Miller could potentially earn $8-9MM in 2017 depending on his 2016 results — will position Atlanta to be aggressive on both the trade and free-agent front. The Braves, after all, have just $46MM committed to four players in 2017 and only three that will be eligible for arbitration (none of whom should command anything close to a prohibitive salary).

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported that Miller was going to Arizona (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post added that Inciarte and others were going to Atlanta (also on Twitter). The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro reported that Swanson and Blair were in the deal (Twitter link). Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reported that Speier would also go to Arizona.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reactions To The Shelby Miller Trade

By charliewilmoth | December 9, 2015 at 4:24am CDT

Here’s a collection of reactions to the Diamondbacks’ shocking trade of outfielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Aaron Blair and 2015 No. 1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson to the Braves for pitchers Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier.

The Braves’ return for Miller was gigantic, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Law notes that he’s a fan of Miller’s and that the trade and the Zack Greinke signing make the Diamondbacks much better next season, but that the price the Diamondbacks paid was “comically high.” Swanson is a polished and very talented college player who could move through the minors quickly, the way Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber did. Blair gets plenty of ground balls and has “a hint of Brandon Webb” to him. And Law writes that he would rather have six years of Blair or five years of Inciarte for the three years of Miller the Diamondbacks will receive.
The deal “looks like a clear, obvious mistake” for the Diamondbacks, FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes. If they can make the playoffs a few times or win a championship with Miller, the deal will have worked out well (as, Sullivan suggests, the Royals’ then-controversial trade for James Shields did). But Miller isn’t an ace, says Sullivan, and some of his impact will likely be muted by the loss of Inciarte in the outfield. And then there’s Swanson, who’s the kind of prospect who can be the main piece in a deal for an ace, and Blair. Arizona’s front office hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt that it can properly value its young players, Sullivan writes.
The Diamondbacks don’t care that executives around the game think the Braves won the trade in a rout, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. (“Worst trade I’ve ever seen,” said one.) The trade helps the Diamondbacks become contenders, and with Miller joining a core that includes Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, they’re too good to become next year’s Padres — a team that swings for the fences but misses spectacularly.
Swanson joins Adrian Gonzalez and Shawn Abner as the only first overall draft picks to be traded while still in the minors by the teams that drafted them, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo writes. (Gonzalez, the No. 1 pick in 2000, was one of three players the Marlins traded for Ugueth Urbina in 2003. The deal was a lopsided one on paper, but Urbina did help the Marlins win the World Series that year.) Swanson’s situation is unusual in that he could be traded at all — it’s been just six months since the Diamondbacks drafted him in the first place. Last December, the Padres agreed to trade Trea Turner to the Nationals as part of the Wil Myers deal, but due to a rule that draftees could not be traded until a year after they signed, he had to remain in the Padres organization until June. MLB changed that rule so that newly drafted players could be traded after the World Series, and Swanson is just the second player to be traded under those circumstances, following pitcher Logan Allen, who went from Boston to San Diego in the Craig Kimbrel deal.

Outfield Rumors: Giants, Cespedes, Ozuna, Royals, D-Backs, Angels

By Steve Adams | December 8, 2015 at 5:40pm CDT

The Giants are monitoring the market for outfielders, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. San Francisco is prioritizing Jason Heyward, Alex Gordon and Dexter Fowler over Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes for defensive reasons, Morosi adds. That rationale is a bit odd, considering the fact that Cespedes is generally regarded as a stellar defender in left field. Heyward and Fowler, of course, are better fits to see occasional or even regular time in center field than Cespedes would be. But, with Angel Pagan under contract for 2016 and Hunter Pence entrenched in right field, left field would seem to be an area of need.

Here are a few more notes on the outfield market…

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Giants, Angels, Tigers and Royals have been the most interested clubs in Cespedes’ market thus far in the offseason. However, Sherman adds that the Royals quickly came to realize that Cespedes is going to be beyond four years. It should be noted, of course, that Detroit general manager Al Avila said yesterday that his team is not in the mix for either Cespedes or Gordon. (Though that doesn’t mean there wasn’t some earlier talk between the two sides, and, as Sherman notes, the Tigers could circle back if Cespedes’ market doesn’t pick up.)
Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna has drawn trade interest from “at least seven to 10 teams,” Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. Spencer adds that an eventual trade of Ozuna seems to be likely.
Royals GM Dayton Moore told reporters today that the club feels Jarrod Dyson will likely get a chance to hold down a regular job in the corner outfield, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. Filling one corner outfield spot from within would obviously reduce the team’s needs and potentially increase the team’s flexibility to spend on another outfielder.
Diamondbacks outfield prospect Socrates Brito is “getting some play” at the Winter Meetings, Jack Magruder of FanRag Sports tweets. The 23-year-old reached the majors last year, slashing .303/.324/.455 in just 34 plate appearances, and has shown an intriguing power/speed combo in the minors.
Angels GM Billy Eppler has spoken to the agents for all of the major free-agent outfielders — including Heyward, Cespedes and Upton — according to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times (Twitter link). However, DiGiovanna cautions that we shouldn’t expect the Halos to set the market by being the first to agree to a major deal for an outfielder.
Via, MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli (Twitter link), Orioles GM Dan Duquette said that his club has been “aggressive” in its efforts to add a left-handed hitting corner outfielder.
The Twins had interest in Rajai Davis two offseasons ago when he signed with the Tigers, and they have some interest again this winter, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (Twitter link). However, their interest is somewhat limited, he notes, as a fourth outfield type isn’t a high priority for the team right now. Davis is said to be in talks with the Indians.

Diamondbacks Designate A.J. Schugel

By Jeff Todd | December 8, 2015 at 12:34pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have designated righty A.J. Schugel for assignment, the club announced today. His roster spot was needed for the signing of Zack Greinke.

Schugel, 26, went to Arizona in the 2013 Mark Trumbo deal, which doesn’t look any better for the club after today’s move. He reached the majors briefly last year but spent most of the season at Triple-A, working to a 4.84 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 115 1/3 frames.

Cubs, Diamondbacks No Longer In Mix For Shelby Miller

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2015 at 12:15pm CDT

Shelby Miller is still an Atlanta Brave as of this morning, though trade winds are swirling around the right-hander. Here’s the latest…

While the Orioles have inquired on Miller, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links), there does not appear to be a match since Atlanta obviously seems to be angling for bats.
The Cubs are also “not currently in [the] mix” for Miller, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets, joining Arizona in that regard. While the Dodgers have had conversations with the Braves, it’s “unclear” where they stand, per Rosenthal.
The Diamondbacks appear to have “moved their attention away” from Miller, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. There are still multiple clubs involved on the righty, however, Bowman adds.

Earlier Updates

The Braves reportedly made progress on a Miller deal and a trade could happen as soon as today, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets (and expands upon further in a report today). Braves management met “late into [the] night” discussing Miller.
The Diamondbacks are still hopeful they’ll be the team to obtain Miller today, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link). Atlanta and Arizona have had several talks about Miller, though the D’Backs have turned down at least two offers that would’ve sent A.J. Pollock to the Braves.

Infield Notes: Zobrist, Davis, Lind, Moreland, Walker, Angels, Flowers, Reynolds, Matsuda

By Jeff Todd | December 8, 2015 at 12:01pm CDT

The Mets are “pretty optimistic” of landing free agent infielder/outfielder Ben Zobrist, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets. New York expects a decision today or tomorrow, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). While the team has yet to formally offer a fourth year, says Sherman, it would work out a fourth year if Zobrist indicates he’d like to join the club.

Here are some more updates on the market for infielders:

The Orioles are meeting today with agent Scott Boras regarding free agent first baseman Chris Davis, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports on Twitter. As Kubatko notes, Boras also represents Pedro Alvarez, who could theoretically also represent an option for Baltimore — at least if the team misses on Davis.
Brewers first baseman Adam Lind appears to have a broad potential market, with Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweeting that at least 12 clubs have “checked in” on him.
One such team is the Orioles, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter), who says that Baltimore has inquired on both Lind and Mitch Moreland of the Rangers. But the O’s don’t appear to “match up” with Milwaukee on Lind, Haudricourt adds via Twitter.
There’s no realistic possibility of an extension between Neil Walker and the Pirates, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports. GM Neal Huntington says that he feels the team has sufficient internal options — and acquisition possibilities — to “back-fill if Walker is dealt.
The Pirates’ talks with the Rangers on Moreland have “cooled” but are still alive, Biertempfel further reports.
Though there’s continuing interest, the Angels don’t appear likely to land Howie Kendrick in free agency, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. The veteran second baseman is probably going to be too expensive given the team’s other needs, per Fletcher.
The Angels could look to the Diamondbacks’ stockpile of young infielders to fill one of the club’s potential openings, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times suggests. Los Angeles could offer starting pitching in return.
Free agent backstop Tyler Flowers is reportedly deciding between the Yankees, Braves, and Rays, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter links). He’d potentially serve as Brian McCann’s backup in New York, says Hoch. That could, in theory at least, make fellow backstops Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine available to utilize in a trade. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reported on the Braves interest this morning via Twitter, saying that the club is considering Flowers in an effort to avoid over-exposing free agent addition A.J. Pierzynski. If Flowers goes to Atlanta, it would immediately raise yet more questions about the future of young receiver Christian Bethancourt.
Free agent slugger Mark Reynolds is drawing interest from the Rockies, Cardinals, Giants, and Pirates, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.
Among the teams with interest in Japanese third baseman Nobuhiro Matsuda are the White Sox and Padres, Heyman adds on Twitter.

Diamondbacks Sign Zack Greinke

By charliewilmoth | December 8, 2015 at 11:36am CDT

TUESDAY: Arizona has announced the signing.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has a slew of details on the contract. (All links go to Twitter.) Greinke will receive a $18MM signing bonus and salaries of $31MM (2016-18), $31.5MM (2019), and $32MM (2020-21).

The overall valuation of the deal sits at $193,849,298, per Heyman, which accounts for the fact that $62.5MM of it is deferred. Greinke will also receive a $2MM trade bonus if he’s dealt once, though of course there is no-trade protection as well, and will donate one percent of his annual salary to the club’s charity.

SUNDAY: Greinke will receive a limited no-trade provision as part of his deal, Heyman tweets.

FRIDAY: In a shocker, the Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with free agent starter Zack Greinke, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The contract is for six years, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman (on Twitter). The deal is pending a physical. Greinke is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Greinke will receive an amazing $206.5MM over six years, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. While that will include some deferred money (via Rosenthal), the total comes just short of David Price’s $217MM deal with the Red Sox, which was the largest ever for a pitcher. (Rosenthal tweets that $60MM or more is deferred, and the present-day value of Greinke’s deal is around $190MM. Heyman tweets that the deferred money that will be paid within five years after the deal expires.) And Greinke’s contract is for only six years, compared to Price’s seven (although Price’s contains an opt-out, and Greinke’s does not, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets). Greinke’s $34.42MM AAV will be baseball’s largest ever, blowing away both Price and Miguel Cabrera, who got $31MM.

Rosenthal had reported earlier Friday evening that the Diamondbacks were pursuing Greinke, and the Diamondbacks had previously been connected to a number of high-profile arms, including Johnny Cueto, Kenta Maeda and others. Still, the fact that they’re set to sign an ultra-high-end star like Greinke comes as a surprise, particularly since the top two bidders seemed to be two of Arizona’s division rivals, the Dodgers and Giants.

Still, Greinke to the Diamondbacks makes a fair amount of sense, and not just because of the team’s new ten-figure TV deal. The $206.5MM total for Greinke is three times larger than the Snakes’ biggest-ever free agent contract (last year’s $68.5MM deal for Yasmany Tomas), but Greinke, in addition to being an elite talent, should fit well with what they already have built.

As FanGraphs’ August Fagerstrom pointed out earlier this week, Arizona already qualified as a sleeper team for next season. The Diamondbacks already had a solid offense headed by two top talents in Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, and an excellent defense headed by Pollock, Nick Ahmed and Ender Inciarte. The chief reason they only won 79 games last season was their pitching staff, which rated 27th in MLB in fWAR. Their rotation already looked likely to improve somewhat next season with a full season of Patrick Corbin, but adding Greinke provides a much bigger shot in the arm. With Greinke in the fold, the Diamondbacks obviously have a much better chance of contending — and not only because of the direct impact Greinke will have on their roster, but also because they’ll be keeping Greinke from pitching for one of their rivals.

Greinke would, clearly, be an impact addition for any team. While he isn’t likely to repeat his 1.66 ERA next season, even with an outstanding defense behind him, he’s an elite pitcher by any standard — he pitched 222 2/3 innings in 2015 and struck out 200 batters, reaching that threshold for the fifth time in his career. His 1.6 BB/9 was good for fifth in the Majors, and he also did a terrific job limiting home runs. Via FanGraphs linear weights, his changeup ranked as the best in baseball, and both his fastball and slider were among the ten best. He also hit a relatively robust .224/.232/.343 and won his second consecutive Gold Glove award.

The Diamondbacks’ surprising deal with Greinke leaves its neighbors to the west on the outside looking in. The Dodgers were uncomfortable giving Greinke a sixth year, the Los Angeles Times’ Bill Shaikin tweets. They offered him about $31MM per year over five years, Heyman reports (again via Twitter), but they were uncomfortable guaranteeing a sixth year to a pitcher who’s already 32. With Greinke off the board, the Dodgers are expected to bid for Cueto, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Meanwhile, the Giants could turn to other starting pitchers, perhaps Jeff Samardzija.

Greinke’s decision to opt out of his contract with the Dodgers unsurprisingly turned out to be a very lucrative one. He effectively declined three years and $71MM more from Los Angeles, and now will receive three times as much over only twice as many seasons. Also, as the Bay Area News Group’s Andrew Baggarly tweets, Greinke will be taxed at a significantly lower rate in Arizona than in California.

Once the deal is complete, the Diamondbacks will forfeit the 13th overall pick in next year’s draft, since Greinke rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer. The Dodgers will receive a pick at the end of the first round.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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