Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2024
Major League Baseball finalized its luxury tax calculations for 2024. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first to report the list of payors, while Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the details. A record nine teams surpassed the $237MM competitive balance tax threshold. In a separate post, The Associated Press lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.
The payments are as follows:
- Dodgers: $103MM
- Mets: $97.1MM
- Yankees: $62.5MM
- Phillies: $14.4MM
- Braves: $14MM
- Rangers: $10.8MM
- Astros: $6.5MM
- Giants: $2.4MM
- Cubs: $570K
Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. Texas and Atlanta are second-time payors. Houston, San Francisco, and the Cubs did not exceed the threshold in 2023 and are marked as first-time payors.
The Dodgers ($353MM), Mets ($348MM), and Yankees ($316MM) all had CBT numbers above $277MM, which marked the third tax bracket. All three teams will see their first-round pick in the 2025 draft dropped by 10 spots. Considering they each advanced at least as far as the LCS and the Dodgers won the World Series, those clubs won’t have any regrets about that penalty. Atlanta narrowly stayed below the $277MM threshold to avoid any impact on their draft.
Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2025 and $1MM from their ’26 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.
The Mets (Juan Soto), Yankees (Max Fried), Giants (Willy Adames), and Astros (Christian Walker) have already signed or agreed to terms with qualified free agents. The Mets (Luis Severino), Yankees (Soto), and Braves (Fried) have lost qualified free agents. Houston is likely to see Alex Bregman walk. The Mets (Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea) and Dodgers (Teoscar Hernández) still have unsigned qualified free agents of their own.
The top eight luxury payors were all clearly above the base threshold, while the three biggest spenders blew beyond every surcharge marker. The only source of CBT intrigue late in the season concerned the Cubs and Blue Jays, both of whom were hovering right around the tax line.
When it became clear that neither team would make the playoffs, they each attempted to dip below $237MM by shedding money via waivers. The Cubs were unsuccessful and landed around $239.9MM; Toronto dropped just below $234MM. The tax impact for the Cubs is negligible — a $570K bill is less than the cost of one player on a league minimum salary — but it places a higher penalty for signing qualified free agents and could incentivize them to stay under the threshold in 2025 to reset their status. Six of the nine payors made the postseason. Texas, San Francisco, and Chicago were the exceptions.
Last year, a then-record eight teams surpassed the CBT threshold. The Padres are the only team that was above the line in 2023 and got below it this year. San Diego finished with an approximate $228MM mark that ranked 11th in the majors — behind the nine payors and the Blue Jays. The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Angels were the other teams above the median in payroll. On the other side of the equation, the five bottom spenders were as follows: Athletics ($84MM), Rays ($107MM), Tigers ($110MM), Marlins ($122MM), and Pirates ($123MM).
The teams that exceeded the threshold have until January 21 to pay MLB. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams. Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM.
Braves Acquire Davis Daniel
The Braves have acquired right-hander Davis Daniel from the Angels, per announcements from both clubs. The Halos designated Daniel for assignment earlier this week. Left-hander Mitch Farris heads the other way.
Daniel, 28 in June, has a small amount of major league experience thus far. Between last year and this year, he has tossed 42 2/3 innings for the Angels, allowing 5.06 earned runs per nine. His 8.1% walk rate is right around average but his 19.9% strikeout rate and 39.1% ground ball rate are both a few ticks worse than par.
Atlanta is probably more interested in the Triple-A season that Daniel just had. He made 21 starts and one relief appearance at the Sale Lake Bees, logging 118 innings. His 5.42 ERA in that time is obviously not impressive, but the Bees play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Daniel struck out 23.3% of batters faced and only gave out walks at a 6.5% clip. His 4.41 FIP was almost exactly a run better than his ERA.
Daniel still has an option remaining, so he can give Atlanta a bit of extra rotation depth without taking up an active roster spot. Atlanta projects to have a rotation fronted by Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach. They will eventually get Spencer Strider back into that mix at some point, once he’s recovered from his April internal brace surgery. Until then, options for the back end include Grant Holmes, Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder and others. Daniel will jump into that group, who will presumably battle each other for positions on the depth chart.
Farris, 24 in February, was selected by Atlanta in the 14th round of the 2023 draft. Since then, he has thrown 124 2/3 innings over 21 starts and nine relief appearances in the minors. In that time, he has a 2.96 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate. He spent most of 2024 at High-A and will backfill some of the pitching depth that the Angels just lost by cutting Daniel from the roster. Farris isn’t Rule 5 eligible until December of 2026, so he won’t need a roster spot for quite a while.
Braves, Jordan Weems Agree To Minor League Deal
The Braves have agreed to a minor league deal with free agent righty Jordan Weems, per MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes. He’ll be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee in spring training. Weems is represented by O’Connell Sports Management.
Weems, who just turned 32, has spent the past three seasons with the Nationals, for whom he’s totaled 136 innings with a 5.03 ERA, 22.9% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate out of the bullpen. He’s averaged 96.4 mph on his heater during that time, primarily coupling the pitch with a slider that’s averaged 87.7 mph in that same span. Washington passed Weems through waivers back in August, and he became a free agent following the season, as was his right as an outrighted player with three-plus years of big league service time.
Weems’ most effective season came with the Nats in 2023, when he pitched a career-high 54 2/3 big league innings with a 3.62 ERA and 25.9% strikeout rate. That solid showing was bookended by a pair of rough years with ERAs north of 5.00, however. During his three years with the Nationals organization, he’s also pitched to a 3.27 earned run average in 77 Triple-A frames.
The Braves have clearly been operating on a tight budget this winter, looking to stockpile depth in the outfield and bullpen on low-cost deals. Weems joins Enoli Paredes and Ray Kerr as non-roster invitees who’ve signed in the wake of Joe Jimenez‘s knee surgery, which will cost the righty most and possibly all of the 2025 season. (Kerr is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be out until the summer as well.) Atlanta has also inked outfielder Bryan De La Cruz and righty Connor Gillispie to split (non-guaranteed) major league contracts with low salaries.
At present, RosterResource projects the Braves for a $201MM payroll with just over $217MM of luxury obligations. That places Atlanta about $30MM shy of where it ended the 2024 season in terms of payroll — and nearly $60MM shy of last year’s luxury tax ledger. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said earlier this month that his club is willing to pay the luxury tax for what would be a third consecutive season, but to this point anyhow, most of Atlanta’s transactions have centered around scaling back spending and compiling affordable depth. That doesn’t preclude an eventual free agent strike of note and/or an impactful trade, but there’s been little to no inkling of such talks for Atlanta so far in the offseason.
Braves Sign Bryan De La Cruz
December 16: De La Cruz will be paid at an $860K rate for time spent in the majors, according to The Associated Press. He’ll make $180K for his time in the minor leagues.
December 15: The Braves announced that outfielder Bryan De La Cruz has been signed to a non-guaranteed deal for the 2025 season. De La Cruz’s deal is specifically a split contract, not a minor league deal. The contract is an early birthday present for De La Cruz, who turns 28 years old tomorrow.
No stranger to the NL East, De La Cruz broke into the majors with the Marlins in 2021 and spent parts of the next four seasons in the Miami outfield. A part-time role turned into essentially everyday duty by the end of the 2022 campaign, and De La Cruz hit .263/.311/.420 with 37 homers over 1200 plate appearances for the Fish during the 2021-23 seasons.
Unfortunately, the production trended downward, from a 111 wRC+ in 219 PA in De La Cruz’s rookie season to a 99 in 2022, then a 90 in 2023, and down to a 77 wRC+ in 2024. De La Cruz hit 21 homers this past season but only with a .233/.271/.384 slash line in 622 combined PA with the Marlins and Pirates. The bulk of the struggles came after Pittsburgh acquired De La Cruz at the trade deadline, as De La Cruz hit only .200/.220/.294 in 168 PA with his new team.
The dropoff was so drastic that the Pirates opted to non-tender De La Cruz rather than pay him a projected $4MM salary in the first of three arbitration-eligible seasons. Given those three years of control and the fact that the Bucs gave up two prospects for De La Cruz at the deadline, it would’ve been understandable if the Pirates had kept De La Cruz around for another look, yet the $4MM price tag and his sub-replacement level play made the non-tender a justifiable call.
De La Cruz has essentially been a power-only player to this point in his career, and he has had consistently solid hard-contact numbers. However, making contact has been a struggle since De La Cruz has a 25% career strikeout rate, and he doesn’t often take walks. De La Cruz has experience at all three outfield positions and he has a good throwing arm but is considered a middling defender at best.
The non-guaranteed nature of the contract means that the Braves lose nothing by seeing what De La Cruz can do in Spring Training. If he can get himself on track at the plate and more consistently translate his power into steady production, the Braves suddenly have a controllable outfielder in the fold through the 2027 season. De La Cruz has two minor league option years remaining, adding more flexibility to Atlanta’s decision-making about whether or not to deploy him on the active roster.
The Braves’ need for outfield help is no secret. Ronald Acuna Jr.‘s recovery from a torn ACL could stretch well into May, Jarred Kelenic wasn’t particularly productive in his first season in Atlanta, and Jorge Soler (though mostly a DH) was traded to the Giants in a salary dump right at the outset of the offseason. De La Cruz could ideally pair with Kelenic in a platoon in left field once Acuna is back, and perhaps might be viewed as a starter capable of holding the fort in right field in Acuna’s absence. That said, De La Cruz’s contract certainly won’t preclude the Braves from continuing to seek out a more clear-cut starting outfield option in the coming months.
Braves Sign Conner Capel To Minor League Deal
The Braves have signed outfielder Conner Capel to a minor league deal, according to the transaction tracker on Capel’s MLB.com profile page. The deal presumably includes an invite to MLB Spring Training in 2025.
A fifth-round pick by Cleveland in the 2016 draft, Capel was traded to the Cardinals as part of the Oscar Mercado trade back in 2018. Capel spent the next few years climbing the minor league ladder but eventually made his big league debut with the Cardinals back in 2022 during his age-25 campaign. He appeared in just nine games for St. Louis before being designated for assignment in September of that year, but the then-Oakland A’s plucked him off waivers and added him to the roster down the stretch. While Capel struggled badly with the Cardinals to the tune of a .176/.211/.353 batting line, he found another gear in Oakland and slashed .371/.425/.600 in his final 40 plate appearances of the season.
Capel’s strong showing was enough to convince the A’s to put him on their Opening Day roster in 2023. He was a regular fixture in the club’s corner outfield mix early in the season but put up more pedestrian numbers than he had in his torrid September stretch the previous year, hitting just .260/.372/.329. Those on-base skills were enough to keep his overall slash line above league average, but the lack of power led the A’s to option him to Triple-A. After being sent back down to the minor leagues, Capel struggled with the club’s Las Vegas affiliate and hit just .252/.346/.402 in the Pacific Coast League’s inflated offensive environment. That led the A’s to outright Capel off the 40-man roster, allowing him to elect free agency following the 2023 campaign.
Eventually, Capel caught on with the Reds in free agency via a minor league pact. At the time, it seemed somewhat unlikely that he would impact the big league club in 2024 given the crowded positional mix in Cincinnati. Things changed rapidly for the Reds after that, however. Noelvi Marte was suspended for the first half of 2024 due to a failed PED test, and injuries to TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand opened up plenty of playing time in Cincinnati. That rush of injuries allowed Capel to crack the big league roster in May, though he appeared in just five games with the Reds before being designated for assignment. After going two-for-eight with a stolen base and a run scored in Cincinnati, Capel returned to Triple-A Louisville where he slashed .218/.343/.432 in 74 games before returning to free agency earlier this winter.
Now that he’s latched on with the Braves, Capel figures to provide the club non-roster outfield depth from the left side. He’ll join righty-hitting Bryan De La Cruz in that role as Atlanta looks to shore up its outfield depth. With Ronald Acuna Jr. not expected to be ready for Opening Day after suffering a torn ACL early last year, the club has little certainty in the outfield beyond Michael Harris II in center field and Jarred Kelenic as a potential option for a corner spot. The Braves figure to add at least one outfielder who can offer more certainty than either De La Cruz or Capel, but the pair could still vie for a bench role with the club this Spring or step in if additional injuries further complicate the club’s outfield plans.
Braves Sign Wander Suero To Minor League Deal
The Braves have signed right-hander Wander Suero to a minor league deal, reports Matt Eddy of Baseball America. The Rep 1 Baseball client will presumably receive an invite to major league spring training as well.
Suero, 33, signed a minor league deal with the Astros last winter. He was selected to the roster in April but was outrighted off the roster after just one appearance. He spent most of the year in Triple-A and had a good performance. He tossed 67 2/3 innings for the Space Cowboys, allowing 2.66 earned runs per nine. He was surely helped by a .238 batting average on balls in play and 85.8% strand rate, but his 24.8% strikeout rate was a strong mark.
He does have some experience as an effective major league reliever, though it’s been a few years now. He tossed 142 2/3 innings for the Nationals over the 2018 through 2020 seasons with a 4.10 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. He earned one save and 27 holds for the Nats in that time. But his ERA jumped to 6.33 in 2021 and he was non-tendered after that season.
Over the past three years, he’s mostly been limited to minor league work, with only six big league appearances in that stretch. But he had a 3.45 ERA in his 141 Triple-A innings for that time frame, striking out 23.1% of batters faced while walking 10.8%.
Atlanta might have a tight budget this offseason and the bullpen needs addressing. A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez and John Brebbia just became free agents and Joe Jiménez recently underwent knee surgery that could keep him on the injured list for the entire 2025 season. Suero gives them a bit of extra non-roster depth and still has one option year remaining. That roster flexibility could work in his favor when it comes to getting a spot next year.
No Recent Contract Talks Between Braves, Charlie Morton
Charlie Morton is still deciding whether to return for an 18th big league season, according to The Athletic’s Jayson Stark. If he does choose to play, the righty may need to find a new landing spot after four years with the Braves.
Stark’s colleague David O’Brien writes that Morton and the Braves have not had any recent contract talks. Atlanta and Morton had preliminary discussions shortly after the postseason, but it appears the team has pivoted to other targets as they look for outfield and pitching help. Morton is open to pitching elsewhere, though O’Brien writes that the two-time All-Star prefers teams that host Spring Training near his home in Bradenton, Florida. In addition to Atlanta, the Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, Pirates and Tigers are among the teams that could fit that description.
Morton played this past season on a $20MM club option. Even in a strong pitching market, he’ll probably need to take a reduction this winter. Morton turned in back-of-the-rotation results over 30 starts. He worked to a 4.19 ERA across 165 1/3 innings. Morton struck out 23.8% of batters faced with a 46.3% ground-ball percentage. While that was his strongest grounder rate since 2021, his strikeouts have dropped in consecutive seasons. Morton fanned 25.6% of opponents in 2023 and posted a 28.2% strikeout rate back in ’22.
The velocity and swinging strike rate have also gone backwards slightly. Morton averaged roughly 94 MPH on his fastball and posted an 11.4% swinging strike rate. Both numbers are solid but below his 2021-23 production. Those yellow flags started to catch up to him as the season progressed. Morton carried a 4.07 ERA into the All-Star Break. He allowed 4.37 earned runs per nine while opponents hit .279/.357/.469 in the second half.
None of that is to say that Morton isn’t still a solid pitcher. There’s value in a veteran who can top 150 innings with roughly league average results. Even if he projects more as a #4/5 starter than the mid-rotation arm he’s been for most of his career, he could land something like the $13MM which Kyle Gibson got last winter.
That could be beyond Atlanta’s comfort zone financially. The Braves pushed close to the third tier of luxury tax penalization this year, their second straight season paying the tax. It doesn’t appear they’re inclined to match that spending level next season. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $217MM, including arbitration estimates. That puts them around $24MM shy of the base threshold.
Atlanta could look to limbo under the tax line to reset their status and avoid the escalating penalties levied on repeat payors. That doesn’t appear to be a firm mandate, however. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves would be willing to pay the tax again under certain circumstances. “It’s just a percentage you’re going up. It’s for every dollar over. You’re aware of it, but it doesn’t stop you from doing anything,” he said (link via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). “If the right opportunity presents itself, we’ll do it.”
That said, Atlanta’s start to the winter has been quiet. They restructured deals for Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López to move some money back to future seasons. The Braves dumped Jorge Soler’s salary for no return, as they ended up non-tendering the player they acquired (Griffin Canning). Atlanta seemingly made little effort to retain Max Fried, nor is there any indication they made a serious play for speculative target Willy Adames. Their only MLB acquisitions thus far are split deals for Carlos D. Rodriguez and Connor Gillispie.
The Braves have almost never been free agent spenders under Anthopoulos. They’ve made much more of an impact on the trade market. Perhaps there’s another such move on the horizon, but they could also be relying on internal rotation options to step up after losing Fried and Morton.
Chris Sale will lead the staff on the heels of his first Cy Young win. López and Spencer Schwellenbach slot behind him as a strong 2-3 combination. Spencer Strider isn’t going to be ready for Opening Day, but he could return from his internal brace procedure within the season’s first half. The back of the staff is questionable. Ian Anderson hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since 2022. AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep struggled with their command in the minors. Bryce Elder performed well in Triple-A but was rocked for a 6.52 ERA in 10 major league starts.
That could open a rotation opportunity for Grant Holmes depending on how the remainder of the offseason progresses. The 28-year-old righty pitched mostly in relief this year, working to a 3.56 ERA over 26 MLB appearances (seven starts). Anthopoulos said this week that the Braves were intrigued by the possibility for Holmes to grab a rotation job in Spring Training. “He’s someone that we’d like to find out what he can do, because we do think there’s significant upside there if he can get a starting spot,” Anthopoulos said (link via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “But again, that won’t stop us from either trading for or signing any starter.”
2024 Rule 5 Draft Results
The 2024 Rule 5 draft took place this afternoon at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. The results of the draft are below.
As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Though the amateur (Rule 4) draft now has a lottery to determine the selection order, the Rule 5 draft still goes the old-fashioned way of reverse order of standings from the season that just ended. Clubs need to have an open 40-man roster spot in order to make a pick but aren’t obligated to make a selection on their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2025 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors.
Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs. The A’s took Mitch Spence from the Yankees with the top pick and kept him all year. Justin Slaten was plucked from the Rangers by the Mets and then traded to the Red Sox. Players like Anthony Santander and Ryan Pressly have been notable picks in other recent years while guys like George Bell and Roberto Clemente are found deeper in the history books.
Here are this year’s picks…
- White Sox: RHP Shane Smith (Brewers) (Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline relayed the pick on Bluesky prior to the draft)
- Rockies: pass
- Marlins: C Liam Hicks (Tigers)
- Angels: LHP Garrett McDaniels (Dodgers)
- Athletics: RHP Noah Murdock (Royals)
- Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert (Rays)
- Blue Jays: RHP Angel Bastardo (Red Sox)
- Pirates: pass
- Reds: 2B Cooper Bowman (Athletics)
- Rangers: pass
- Giants: pass
- Rays: LHP Nate Lavender (Mets)
- Red Sox: pass
- Twins: RHP Eiberson Castellano (Phillies)
- Cardinals: pass
- Cubs: 3B Gage Workman (Tigers)
- Mariners: pass
- Royals: pass
- Tigers: pass
- Astros: pass
- Mets: pass
- D-backs: pass
- Braves: RHP Anderson Pilar (Marlins)
- Orioles: pass
- Guardians: pass
- Padres: RHP Juan Nunez (Orioles)
- Brewers: LHP Connor Thomas (Cardinals)
- Yankees: pass
- Phillies: RHP Mike Vasil (Mets); Phillies later traded Vasil to Rays for cash considerations, per announcements from both clubs.
- Dodgers: pass
Second round (all but one club passed)
- Braves SS Christian Cairo (Guardians)
The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. Right-hander Hobie Harris, who pitched for the Nationals in 2023 and signed a minor league deal with the Mets last month, was taken by the Red Sox.
Conflicting Reports On Angels Outfield Situation
12:43pm: On the Baseball Insiders podcast, Robert Murray of FanSided says the Angels are not in fact close to trading an outfielder (hat tip to Sam Blum of The Athletic and Beyond the Halo on X)
9:28am: Yesterday, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link) reported that the Angels seemed to be close to trading an outfielder. Nothing has come together yet but it’s possible that talks are still ongoing. It wasn’t specified which outfielder they were about to trade but Feinsand suggested that Taylor Ward would make sense since there have been rumors of other clubs being interested in him. However, Ward’s agent Joel Wolfe told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (X link) that he hadn’t heard anything about trade talks involving his client. That doesn’t necessarily mean that there aren’t discussions happening but members of the Atlanta beat like David O’Brien of The Athletic (X link) and Mark Bowman of MLB.com (X link) both report that, if there is an imminent Ward trade, it won’t be to Atlanta.
Ward has seemed like a logical trade candidate for a while now. As the Angels have struggled to compete in recent years, there has been natural speculation about the veteran players on the roster with shrinking windows of club control. Ward will be celebrating his 31st birthday this Saturday and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.
If the Angels were pivoting towards a sort of reset, it would make sense to trade Ward for younger and more controllable players. However, despite just losing 99 games in the most recent season, the Halos are clearly trying to contend in 2025. Both owner Arte Moreno and general manager Perry Minasian made it clear that was the plan for this winter and they have backed that up, acquiring Yusei Kikuchi, Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks and others already.
In that context, trading Ward becomes a bit more difficult to see. The outfield is already a fairly thin part of the roster, consisting of Ward, Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak and perhaps Soler. Trout has become increasingly injury prone in recent years, having not played 120 games in a season since 2019. Soler is a poor defender and best suited to be the designated hitter more often than not. Adell and Moniak still have poor offensive track records overall.
Subtracting Ward from that group would make it even flimsier but clubs would certainly be interested if he were available. He has hit .259/.338/.440 over the past four years for a wRC+ of 118, indicating he’s been 18% better than the league average hitter in that time. His defense has also been graded around league average or above, allowing him to play at a pace of about two to four wins above replacement per year, according to FanGraphs.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Ward for a $9.2MM salary in 2025, a notable sum but still a bargain for a player like Ward. Free agent corner outfielders like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández are likely to command multi-year contracts with average annual values double that. Ward would be in line for a raise in 2026, his final season before free agency, but that figure would still be a good deal if he continues to produce at his usual rates.
A trade coming together would naturally depend on what other clubs are willing to offer. Perhaps the Angels get offered some big league pitching or infield help that they feel is worth taking, but they would then have to pivot to replacing Ward in the outfield mix. The Pirates and Royals were both connected to Ward at the trade deadline with Kansas City reportedly still interested in him as of last month, though the Angels haven’t let go of him yet.
Some fans might hear about the Angels potentially trading an outfielder and jump to Trout but it’s hard to imagine a trade like that coming out of the blue. He has a full no-trade clause and has repeatedly said that he wants to stay and win with the Angels. It’s possible that he changes his mind at some point but there’s hasn’t been any public suggestion that has happened.
His contract is also hard to move from a financial perspective. Trout is paid at superstar rates but hasn’t been able to provide that production in a while. He’s always good when he’s on the field but hasn’t been out there enough to accrue counting stats at his previous levels. He’s set to make $35.45MM annually for another six seasons. Even for a marquee name like Trout, that’s a lot of money for a guy who’s now 33 years old with mounting injury concerns.
Even if Trout wanted to be traded, it would be a tricky spot for the Halos since they would likely have to settle for a middling return on a franchise player or eat money just to get a notable package, which isn’t a great P.R. position either way.
It’s also possible Moniak or Adell are the ones being discussed, though neither would have huge value right now. Moniak has stepped to the plate 908 times in the majors thus far with a .230/.272/.402 batting line and 32.3% strikeout rate. Adell has hit .211/.268/.381 in his career with a 32.2% strikeout rate.
It’s possible to see some improvement from Adell in 2024, as he popped 24 home runs while lowering his strikeout rate to 27.9%. His overall production was still subpar but his .244 batting average on balls in play was well below league average. It’s possible he took a meaningful step forward this past year and will break out with better luck in 2025 but he’s floundered so many times that teams might be reluctant to bet on that.
Braves Willing To Exceed Luxury Tax In 2025
The Braves have been relatively quiet to this point in the winter, having done little to this point beyond trade Jorge Soler to the Angels at the start of the offseason. That’s created the impression of a club being cautious about its payroll situation this winter, when they stand at risk of surpassing the luxury tax for a third consecutive year, which would come with stiff tax penalties and cause the first-round pick in the 2026 draft to move back ten spots. Despite the club’s slow start to the winter, however, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters (including David O’Brien of The Athletic) that the club is willing to surpass the luxury tax for a third consecutive year to address the club’s needs this winter.
According to O’Brien, the club’s initial plans for the offseason were scuttled when they received worrisome medical updates regarding stars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider as well as reliever Joe Jimenez. Neither Acuna nor Strider is expected to be ready for Opening Day as things stand, and O’Brien adds that both could be out of action “well into May.” That news, in conjunction with the loss of Jimenez to knee surgery for most or all of the 2025 campaign, left the Braves to look for ways to free up salary. Per O’Brien, the club likely wouldn’t have restructured the contracts of Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer nor declined the club option of veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud had these injuries not put additional pressure on the club to pursue help in the outfield, rotation, and bullpen.
Of those three areas of the roster, the outfield appears to be the most pressing for the club to address. O’Brien notes that the Braves may prefer to be extra cautious with Acuna next season in the aftermath of his second torn ACL in four seasons, particularly after he struggled (at least relative to his own elite standards) in 2022 after returning to the lineup as soon as possible. That’s led the club to pursue outfield help thanks to the relatively lackluster in-house alternatives of Eli White, Luke Williams and Carlos D. Rodriguez as options to pair with Jarred Kelenic and Michael Harris II on the grass until Acuna returns.
On the pitching side of things, however, the Braves seemingly have more comfort with their internal options. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale figures to be joined by Lopez and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach in the club’s Opening Day rotation for 2025, and the club has a large number of possible internal options to handle the other two rotation spots including Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, and Ian Anderson among others, but Anthopoulos suggested one surprising internal candidate for a rotation job as well: right-hander Grant Holmes.
The 28-year-old made his MLB debut for the Braves this past season and excelled in a swing role for the club with a 3.56 ERA and 3.20 FIP in 68 1/3 innings of work split between seven starts and 19 relief appearances. Given Holmes’s apparent comfort moving between the rotation and bullpen, he could prove to be a sensible choice to fill in for Strider in the club’s Opening Day rotation before moving into a relief role once the hard-throwing righty returns to action. Similarly, O’Brien notes that Anthopoulos expressed interest in using right-hander Daysbel Hernandez in a set-up role in 2025 to help make up for the loss of Jimenez. Hernandez pitched just 18 innings for Atlanta in 2024 across 16 appearances, but he made a strong impression in that limited time with a 2.50 ERA, a 35.1% strikeout rate, and a 2.11 FIP.
One other option to help make up for the loss of Jimenez that O’Brien notes could be on the table is a reunion with southpaw A.J. Minter. While O’Brien suggests that the club “might” re-sign Minter this winter, one potential wrinkle in bringing Minter back to help ease the loss of Jimenez is the fact that the lefty might also miss Opening Day following surgery. Minter underwent season-ending hip surgery back in August, and O’Brien notes that it’s not yet clear whether or not he’ll be ready to pitch early in the 2025 season.
Even setting aside the potential implications Minter’s health could have on Atlanta’s interest in a reunion, his injury woes lingering into the season could substantially impact earning power this winter, as well. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM deal for Minter earlier this offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, but that prediction came with the presumption that the southpaw would be ready for Opening Day in 2025. If Minter’s rehab from surgery leaves Opening Day in question for the lefty throughout the offseason, it would hardly be a surprise to see the 31-year-old settle for a one-year deal this winter in hopes of proving himself healthy and having a better chance at a more lucrative multi-year deal next year.