Latest On Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuna Jr.
Spencer Strider will start for the Braves in Monday’s Spring Training game with the Red Sox, in a significant step in Strider’s recovery from an internal brace procedure. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (multiple links) figures Strider will pitch in at least five games over the rest of spring camp and during a minor league rehab assignment before officially returning to Atlanta’s rotation during the regular season, which could signal a return date around roughly the middle of April if all goes well.
This would seemingly beat the timeline floated by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand just a few days ago, when Feinsand suggested that Strider would “likely” start a 30-day minor league rehab assignment. Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said have their own “general idea” about when both Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. will be back from their long-term injuries, yet the team hasn’t given any set timelines.
“The fact that they’re very active participants basically throughout the spring is a good sign. Without having a date right now, we’re definitely on the shorter end, Strider more so than Ronald,” Anthopoulos said.
Should this rough timeline hold, it will mark just slightly over a year on the shelf for Strider, who underwent an internal brace surgery last April 12. While Tommy John surgeries usually require 13-15 months of recovery, internal brace procedures have a slightly shorter timeline of roughly 12-13 months attached. Because brace surgeries are still a relatively new way of addressing UCL injuries, there isn’t yet a standard timeframe for recovery, plus the obvious fact that every pitcher’s arm is a unique entity that recovers at its own pace.
Still, it’s great news for Strider and the Braves that he is on pace to return to the mound sooner rather than later. After making his MLB debut late in the 2021 season, Strider emerged almost fully formed as a front-of-the-rotation pitcher in 2022, and delivered two years of work before he was waylaid by his UCL injury. Strider posted a 2.67 ERA over 131 2/3 innings in 2022, then a 3.86 ERA in 186 2/3 frames in 2023. The latter season saw the right-hander lead the NL in strikeouts (281), strikeout rate (36.8%) and wins (20), while finishing in fourth place in Cy Young Award voting.
As Anthopoulos observed, Acuna has been able to take part in baseball activities during camp, though he isn’t expected to play in any actual games before the Grapefruit League schedule is over. Acuna should return to game action as part of a minor league rehab assignment in April, with an eye towards being activated from the injured list by the middle of May at the earliest. Acuna will start the season on the IL, but it looks as if he’ll be placed on the 10-day rather than the 60-day, which would require him to be sidelined until the last week of May.
That would make it just under a year away for Acuna, who tore his left ACL last May 26. Acuna also tore his left ACL in mid-July 2021 and returned to action by the end of April 2022, so it isn’t surprising that this second major knee injury necessitated a longer recovery time. Acuna also battled some knee soreness throughout the 2022 campaign, which was reflected in a down performance (.266/.351/.413 with 15 homers over 533 plate appearances) by his high standards.
At his best, Acuna is arguably the best player in baseball, as evidenced by his incredible MVP season in 2023. Coming back from one ACL tear to deliver such production is a positive sign that Acuna can return from this latest injury as well, though it is reasonable that Acuna will (like in 2022) take some time to fully return to form. It is also fair to speculate whether or not Acuna can get back to that 2023 peak again, simply due to the difficulty of rebounding from ACL tears in both knees.
Poll: Will The Braves Add A Catcher?
At the outset of the offseason, the Braves made a surprising move to decline their club option on veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud despite prior indications being that they’d planned to exercise the option. Things turned out just fine for d’Arnaud, who signed a two-year deal with the Angels shortly thereafter, but the decision came back to bite Atlanta when starting catcher Sean Murphy suffered a cracked rib that will keep him out of action through at least the middle of April.
When Murphy missed time due to an oblique issue last year, d’Arnaud was there to step in as a capable regular option. This year, they’ll have no such ready-made answer locked and loaded on the roster. That’s not to say the club has no internal options; youngster Drake Baldwin is a well-regarded prospect who already seemed likely to make his MLB debut at some point this year, and Chadwick Tromp was already in line to make the roster as the club’s backup catcher. Baldwin has raked this spring to the tune of a .368/.520/.474 slash line, and perhaps that’s enough to convince Atlanta brass to give him the reins for the start of the season while Murphy recovers.
However, it’s hardly a reliable solution to the issue. Baldwin has yet to take a major league at-bat, and he struggled offensively at the Double-A level just last year before turning his season around upon his promotion to Triple-A. And if Baldwin proves unprepared to handle the big leagues, Tromp isn’t a viable starting option. The soon to be 30-year-old backstop has just 59 games and 156 plate appearances under his belt over parts of five seasons in the majors. In that time, he’s hit just .232/.237/.397 with a wRC+ of 66. While it’s not impossible to imagine more regular playing time in the majors allowing Tromp to perform better, 47 catchers produced more offense that Tromp’s career numbers across at least 100 plate appearances in the majors last year.
The Braves do have a pair of non-roster invitees in camp who could step in, but neither inspires confidence. Sandy Leon didn’t play in the majors at all last year, last had even 100 plate appearances in a season back in 2021, and is a career .208/.276/.311 hitter. Fellow NRI Curt Casali has a somewhat stronger track record, having played at least 40 games in the majors every year since 2018 (excluding the 60-game 2020 season where he appeared in 31 games for the Reds), but hit just .194/.293/.250 for the Giants in 125 trips to the plate last year.
Given all of the uncertainty facing Atlanta, an external addition can’t be ruled out. It’s been reported that the club made an offer to Yasmani Grandal even prior to Murphy’s injury. While Grandal turned that deal down, it signals the club already had reservations about its catching depth and it’s at least possible that the sides could circle back to each other with Opening Day fast approaching and additional playing time having opened up for Grandal.
Other options on the free agent market are few and far between. James McCann and Yan Gomes remain unsigned, but other options could emerge in the coming days as veterans on minor league deals with other teams begin to get the opportunity to opt out and return to free agency.
Jorge Alfaro, Omar Narvaez, and Tucker Barnhart are among the veterans in camp with other clubs who could return to free agency if they don’t make their current club’s Opening Day roster. It’s also at least possible that a club with an excess of catching options on the 40-man roster like the Twins could either make one of their backstops available on waivers or via trade, though trades of particular note are quite rare at this stage of the calendar. While none of the options likely to be available are game changers, they could offer a higher floor than any of Atlanta’s current options and allow the club to avoid rushing Baldwin to the majors.
How do you think the Braves will approach the situation? Will they take Murphy’s injury as an opportunity to give Baldwin regular playing time and stand pat with their internal options, or will they instead look to upgrade over a potential tandem of Baldwin and Tromp by bringing in a more reliable veteran to help handle the pitching staff? Have your say in the poll below:
Will Atlanta bring in a catcher while Murphy is injured?
-
No, they'll stick with who they have in-house. 64% (2,497)
-
Yes, they'll add someone else to the mix. 36% (1,377)
Total votes: 3,874
Yasmani Grandal Reportedly Turned Down Offer From Braves “About A Month Ago”
According to reporter Francys Romero, the Braves made an offer to free agent catcher Yasmani Grandal “about a month ago.” Needless to say, Grandal, who remains unsigned, turned down the proposed deal. The terms of Atlanta’s offer were not included in Romero’s report.
Grandal, 36, is the top catcher remaining on the free agent market. Depending on how teams view James McCann and Yan Gomes, Grandal is arguably the only unsigned catcher capable of filling more than a backup role. During his best years, he was widely considered one of the top catchers in the sport. His performance dropped off significantly in 2022 and ’23, but he rebounded with the Pirates in 2024. His offensive numbers were slightly above average for a catcher in nearly every category, while his top-notch pitch framing numbers made him a valuable defender behind the dish. He finished the season with 1.4 FanGraphs WAR in 72 games played.
Up until recently, one might have thought the Braves were set at catcher. Sean Murphy is entering the third year of his six-year, $73MM contract extension, and the Braves surely want him to play as much as possible. While he had a down year in 2024, he is only one year removed from an All-Star season in 2023. In addition, the consensus top prospect in Atlanta’s system is catcher Drake Baldwin. Soon to be 24, Baldwin excelled at Triple-A last year and has continued to excel this spring. He looks ready to make his MLB debut. It’s hard to imagine how Grandal would have fit into the mix.
However, things changed last week when the Braves announced that Murphy would miss four to six weeks with a cracked rib cage. That makes Baldwin the likely Opening Day starter. All of a sudden, the youngster is facing far more pressure to succeed right away. Thus, if the Braves had any interest in Grandal last month, one would think that interest would only be greater now that Murphy is set to miss extended time. Indeed, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported a few days ago that the Braves were “considering” Grandal and McCann.
From Grandal’s perspective, signing with the Braves might now seem more appealing than it did last month. He would have a clear path to regular playing time (or at least a split role with Baldwin) while Murphy is on the shelf. That might only be for a couple of weeks, but even so, it would give Grandal a chance to prove he still deserves a major league opportunity, whether in Atlanta or somewhere else. The Braves are the only team known to have expressed interest in Grandal this winter, but perhaps another club could look to acquire him if he gets a big league gig and plays well.
Romero notes that Grandal is hoping to continue his playing career, though he could consider retirement if the right deal doesn’t come together. The 36-year-old has enjoyed a highly successful 13-year tenure in Major League Baseball with the Padres, Dodgers, Brewers, White Sox, and Pirates. At his peak, he was a well-above-average offensive catcher, putting up an .807 OPS and a 121 wRC+ over his first 10 seasons. However, his most valuable tool has always been his glove. In particular, Grandal is widely considered one of the most talented pitch framers of his generation. According to FanGraphs, he has racked up 152.0 framing runs throughout his career, easily the most among active catchers. Austin Hedges ranks second with 89.3. If Grandal chooses to hang up his catching gear, he will certainly have a strong career to look back on.
Jurickson Profar Suffers Bone Bruise In Left Wrist
TODAY: Profar’s CT scan revealed a bone bruise on his left wrist, Bowman reports. While a painful injury, the team expects Profar should be ready for Opening Day.
MARCH 8: Braves left fielder Jurickson Profar suffered what the club described as a jammed left wrist during today’s Grapefruit League game with the Pirates. Profar suffered the injury while trying to make a diving catch of a line drive in the fourth inning, and the outfielder was in obvious discomfort in the aftermath of the play.
X-rays were negative on Profar’s wrist, and Braves team trainer George Poulis told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman) that there is hope that Profar has avoided any more serious injury. The final diagnosis won’t be known for certain, however, until Profar undergoes an MRI to check for structural damage.
Profar was the Braves’ biggest offseason acquisition, as his huge 2024 season with the Padres resulted in a three-year, $42MM free agent deal from Atlanta. Profar has been rather notoriously inconsistent during his MLB career, but he delivered his best numbers at age 31 and in his 11th season in the Show. Signed to just a $1MM guaranteed last winter, Profar exploded for 24 home runs and a .280/.380/.459 slash line over 668 plate appearances with the Padres, earning All-Star and Silver Slugger recognition.
Since Ronald Acuna Jr. will miss some time at the start of the season recovering from his torn ACL, signing Profar was a logical way for the Braves to bolster their outfield ranks. The plan was to have Profar and Michael Harris II play every day in left and center field, with Jarred Kelenic and Bryan De La Cruz platooning in right field until Acuna is healthy, though if Profar now has to miss any time, Kelenic and De La Cruz could be bumped up to regular status in the corner outfield slots. Eli White could get more playing time in this scenario, and non-roster invitees Jake Marisnick or Conner Capel might have a path to the Opening Day roster if Profar winds up on the injured list.
Losing Profar to the IL would be another blow to Atlanta’s everyday lineup. Beyond Acuna still being on the mend, Sean Murphy broke a rib after hit by a pitch last week, leaving the starting catcher out of action for the next 4-6 weeks. Top catching prospect Drake Baldwin is available as Murphy’s likely fill-in, but filling a hole in the outfield is trickier since the Braves were already lacking depth on the grass with Acuna out.
Braves Considering Free Agent Catchers
The Braves will open the season without their starting catcher. Sean Murphy will be down four to six weeks after breaking a rib when he was hit by a Will Kempner pitch last week. Murphy and Chadwick Tromp are the only catchers on the 40-man roster. Atlanta will need to make some kind of move by Opening Day.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Braves are giving some thought to adding Yasmani Grandal or James McCann. They’re the top two unsigned veteran catchers. Neither player would land more than a couple million dollars on a one-year contract. The Braves would need to decide whether it’s worth rostering a veteran if Murphy only misses the first few weeks of the regular season. Tromp is out of options, so they’d probably wind up cutting a catcher once Murphy returns.
The Braves also have a high-upside alternative. Drake Baldwin is one of the top handful of catching prospects in the sport. The former third-round draftee hit .276/.370/.423 with 16 homers between Double-A and Triple-A a year ago. Baldwin spent more than half the season at Triple-A Gwinnett, where he appeared in 72 games. He’ll turn 24 just after Opening Day. Baldwin should play in the majors at some point this year. He could break camp as the starter, which would keep Tromp in the backup role.
Atlanta would need to add Baldwin to their 40-man roster, but they could open a spot by placing Joe Jiménez on the 60-day injured list at any time. An outside acquisition would need to go on the 40-man anyways, so that’s unlikely to be much of a deterrent. Baldwin could get his first look at major league pitching and head back to Gwinnett for regular playing time once Murphy gets healthy.
McCann or Grandal would be less exciting, if arguably steadier, alternatives. They’re both mid-30s veterans who have plenty of experience working with big league pitching staffs. McCann has spent the last two seasons as Adley Rutschman’s backup in Baltimore. He hit .228/.274/.382 during his stint with the Orioles. McCann grades as a below-average pitch framer but has a strong reputation for his work with pitchers. He threw out a slightly above-average 23.5% of base stealers and wasn’t charged with a passed ball in 559 2/3 innings last season.
The switch-hitting Grandal appeared in 72 games for the Pirates. He hit .228/.304/.400 across 243 trips to the plate. That was his best offensive showing since a 23-homer campaign with the White Sox in 2021. Grandal continues to post excellent pitch framing grades, as he has throughout his career. He was charged with five passed balls across 560 1/3 frames, though, and he only managed to nab six of 72 opposing basestealers (an 8.3% rate). Grandal had the slowest pop time — average time to throw to second on steal attempts — among 83 qualified catchers, per Statcast.
Sean Murphy Out Four To Six Weeks With Cracked Rib
Braves catcher Sean Murphy has a cracked rib on the left side of his ribcage and will be out for the next four to six weeks, manager Brian Snitker announced this morning (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). He sustained the injury when he was hit by a pitch during a Grapefruit League game this past Friday.
The injury opens the door for top prospect Drake Baldwin to potentially make his big league debut on Opening Day, though Baldwin is not yet on the 40-man roster and will likely still need to earn the job with a nice showing in camp. Since Atlanta surprisingly declined Travis d’Arnaud‘s option at the start of the offseason and let him walk in free agency, the other in-house options include Chadwick Tromp (who’s on the 40-man roster) and veteran non-roster invitees Curt Casali and Sandy Leon.
Murphy, 30, is entering his third season with the Braves and will miss the beginning of the season for a second consecutive year. An oblique strain suffered on Opening Day last year sent Murphy to the injured list on March 30 and sidelined him into late May. That was the first major league IL placement of Murphy’s career, but with the season set to open in just over three weeks, he’ll all but assuredly start the 2025 campaign with his second career IL stay.
The 2024 season was the worst of Murphy’s career. It clearly didn’t start on a high note with that early oblique injury, but upon activation from the injured list he didn’t hit anywhere near his prior standards, slashing just .193/.284/.352 in 264 plate appearances. He still smacked 10 homers and graded as a strong defender, but Murphy’s strikeout rate climbed to its highest point since 2021 (25.4%).
More damaging was a huge spike in both Murphy’s ground-ball rate (career-high 53.9%) and infield fly rate. Among the 324 players who tallied 250 plate appearances in 2024, only 12 hit a higher rate of grounders than Murphy. For a player ranked in the eighth percentile in Statcast’s average sprint speed, that’s clearly suboptimal. Beyond the influx of ground-balls, roughly one in six of Murphy’s fly-balls was a hapless pop-up to the infield. He entered the 2024 season with only 9% of his flies being of the infield variety (and just 3.8% in 2023).
Murphy’s struggles really date back to September of 2023. The first five months of his Braves tenure could scarcely have gone better. He slashed .271/.379/.520 with 20 homers in 383 plate appearances, making the All-Star team and looking every bit like the star catcher Atlanta envisioned when trading for and extending him. Murphy hit just .111/.273/.178 in 55 September plate appearances in ’23, but given his track record that seemed like little more than a late slump.
Perhaps that was indeed the case, but with Murphy’s rough 2024 season now tacked onto that poor finish the year prior, he’s running a pretty lengthy stretch of struggles at the plate. In his past 329 plate appearances — including ten in the playoffs — he’s lugging a .181/.280/.319 batting line.
Of course, any talk of Murphy’s recent struggles should mention that they’re short-lived relative to his longstanding all-around production. From the time of his 2019 debut through August 2023, Murphy hit .237/.333/.434 with premium defense. By measure of wRC+, he was 16% better than an average hitter at the plate, which is even more impressive for his position, as the average catcher in that span tended to be around 12% worse than average with the bat. From 2019-23, Murphy ranked third among all catchers in FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, trailing only J.T. Realmuto and (much more narrowly) Will Smith.
He’ll look to get back on track once he’s past this rib injury, but Murphy’s looming IL stint does give the aforementioned Baldwin an opportunity at his MLB debut. The 23-year-old is widely considered among the sport’s top 100 prospects. Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2022 split the 2024 season between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .276/.370/.423 with 16 homers, a 13.1% walk rate and a 17.2% strikeout rate. He’s not considered the super-premium defender that Murphy is, but scouting reports have credited him with improving defense. Baseball America credits his ability to manage a pitching staff as a particular plus element of his defensive game.
The Braves aren’t going to want to have Baldwin up on the big league roster without regular at-bats available to him. It’s possible that he hits well enough this spring to break camp and then forces the issue further by getting out to a hot start in the majors. In that scenario, perhaps Murphy and Baldwin could shoulder a roughly even split of the workload behind the plate. That’d keep both fresh and would mirror many other catching situations around the league, as several clubs have moved away from one iron man catcher and a seldom-used backup (as was more common in prior generations). If Baldwin struggles, though, he could always be sent to Triple-A for further development. He’s still less than three years from being drafted, after all, and has all of 141 games above A-ball under his belt.
The Braves have Murphy signed at $15MM per season through 2028, plus a club option over the former All-Star’s 2029 campaign. Baldwin has yet to debut, meaning he has six years of club control — or nearly seven, if the team keeps him in the minors for more than a couple of weeks in 2025 but bring him to the majors for the remainder of the year.
Braves Sign Hector Neris To Minor League Deal
The Braves have signed right-hander Hector Neris to a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation to big league Spring Training, according to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Toscano adds that Neris will be in camp today with the club.
Neris, 36 in June, signed with the Phillies as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic and made his big league debut back in 2014. That was a cup of coffee that lasted just one inning, however, and he’d have to wait for the 2015 season to get a more substantial look in the majors. He did well enough with the opportunity, posting a roughly average 3.79 ERA in 32 relief appearances despite some lackluster peripheral numbers. It was still enough to earn Neris a regular role with the Phillies the following year, however, and the 2016 season kicked off the best stretch of the right-hander’s entire career.
From 2016 to 2019, Neris pitched to a 3.23 ERA (133 ERA+) with a 3.68 FIP in 270 1/3 innings of work. He struck out 31.3% of opponents during that time and also handled ninth inning duties for Philadelphia on a semi-regular basis, collecting 67 saves along the way. Those are all strong numbers, but a deeper look reveals an interesting twist to Neris’s performance in that stretch; he was a well below-average pitcher in 2018. While 2016, ’17, and ’19 all saw Neris post seasons that were between 43% and 63% better than league average by ERA+, that final year actually saw him pitch to a 5.10 ERA that was 19% worse than league average.
It wasn’t all bad for Neris in 2018, as his 37.4% strikeout rate was incredible and paired with a very manageable 7.8% walk rate, but injuries limited him to just 47 2/3 innings of work and an inflated .354 BABIP combined with an eye-popping 22.9% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio held him back from success that year. All of that combines into a much stronger season when looking at advanced metrics than Neris may get credit for on paper: despite his well below-average ERA, his FIP was actually slightly above average, while metrics like xERA (3.81) and SIERA (2.28) were even more bullish on the righty’s performance.
Neris spent two more years with the Phillies after that, though the results (a combined 3.84 ERA and 3.73 FIP in 98 appearances) were fairly unremarkable. The righty enjoyed a renaissance after signing with the Astros in free agency, however. Between the 2022 and ’23 campaigns, Neris posted a brilliant 2.69 ERA (150 ERA+) with a 3.10 FIP in 133 2/3 innings of work. He struck out 29.1% of opponents, walked 9%, and maintained strong numbers according to both xERA and SIERA. While he collected just five saves in that time due to the presence of closer Ryan Pressly, the right-hander returned to free agency last winter in line to receive a strong contract.
He wound up getting a one-year, $9MM guarantee from the Cubs last winter. Unfortunately for both Neris and Chicago, it proved to be an up-and-down season for the right-hander. Though he stepped into the club’s closer job when incumbent Adbert Alzolay went down with Tommy John surgery, Neris struggled with his command throughout his time with the Cubs. The right-hander walked a whopping 13.3% of his opponents in Chicago while striking out just 23.5% of them. While his 3.89 ERA and 4.10 FIP in 44 innings of work were more or less league average, it was hardly a surprise when the Cubs ultimately designated the veteran for assignment due to the wildness.
Neris was picked back up by the Astros for the stretch run and seemed to get his command under control for the most part with a 28.1% strikeout rate and a 3.1% walk rate. Unfortunately, his on-field production actually got substantially worse, as he was torched to the tune of a 4.70 ERA and 4.80 FIP in 15 1/3 innings of work after giving up four home runs in just 16 games. The lackluster season led Neris to linger on the free agent market this winter, and now he’ll ultimately have to battle his way back into a big league bullpen in camp this spring.
He’ll get the opportunity to do that in Atlanta, for a club that lost a key piece of its late-inning mix back in November when it was announced that right-hander Joe Jimenez would miss 8-12 months after undergoing knee surgery. That left a void in the Braves’ bullpen by removing the club’s top right-handed set-up man for closer Raisel Iglesias, and a return to form could see Neris challenge Pierce Johnson for that role in 2025. Even if he can’t recapture the production he flashed during his first stint in Houston, however, Neris could provide quality veteran depth to a Braves bullpen without much of it after losing Jimenez to injury and Grant Holmes to the starting rotation.
10 Out Of Options Players To Watch This Spring
One of the most interesting elements of spring training every year, at least for those of us who feast on roster construction minutiae, is the collection of players who are out of minor league options. MLBTR just released a full list of such players earlier today.
In many instances, a player being out of minor league options is inconsequential. Justin Steele, Isaac Paredes and Evan Phillips are among the players who fit that description but are in no risk of losing their MLB roster spot. They're all key players on big league rosters who'd never be in danger of being sent down to the minors anyhow.
However, there are typically a handful of players every spring who are on the roster bubble with their current club but who could be a better fit on a team with less competition in their current position. Most of these players have already had big league opportunities with their current club but whether due to injury or poor performance (or both) have yet to firmly seize hold of a roster spot. As players exhaust their minor league options, they'll tend to face increased competition from younger players progressing through the minor league ranks and/or external additions made via trade or free agency. An out-of-options player who doesn't fit his current roster can still go on to find a more solid role and some success elsewhere. Joey Bart was in just this spot last year and after being squeezed out in San Francisco has emerged as Pittsburgh's starting catcher. The Yankees didn't have a spot for Ben Rortvedt, but he's the Rays' clear No. 2 catcher now.
Let's run through 10 names to keep an eye on this spring. Not all of these players will lose their roster spots, and even some who do might not wind up making an impact elsewhere. But each of the names listed here has some reason to hold a bit more intrigue than many of their out-of-options brethren (players listed alphabetically)...
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Braves Chairman: Team Has “Dry Powder” To Add Payroll
The Braves enter Spring Training with a luxury tax payroll around $230MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. That puts them about $11MM shy of the base threshold. Atlanta has paid the tax in two straight seasons, pushing their spending to $276MM by the end of last year.
That seemingly indicates that the Braves have room to add to their payroll. Chairman Terry McGuirk confirmed as much to Evan Drellich of The Athletic. “We have crossed the competitive balance tax each of the last two years. It’s possible we could do it again this year,” McGuirk told Drellich. He added that the team “(has) some dry powder” to add spending and implied that Atlanta could make a move in free agency this spring. McGuirk noted that the Braves waited until the middle of March before bringing back Adam Duvall on a $3MM deal last year.
Atlanta has had a quiet offseason. Their only free agent move of significance was the signing of Jurickson Profar on a three-year, $42MM contract. Their remaining free agent pickups were split deals. Their biggest trade was to offload the final two years on Jorge Soler’s contract to the Angels for no return. They acquired Griffin Canning, then non-tendered him. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves were willing to exceed the tax threshold. Perhaps that’d have happened if a failed physical hadn’t scuttled their reported five-year agreement with Jeff Hoffman, though it’s possible they wouldn’t have subsequently signed Profar if the Hoffman deal had been finalized.
The Braves seem unlikely to add $11MM+ to their tax ledger before Opening Day. There are only a few free agents who are sure to sign major league deals. A one-year deal for David Robertson, Jose Quintana or Kyle Gibson could still approach eight-figures, but most remaining free agents are unsigned because their markets haven’t materialized the way they’d hoped.
Anthopoulos has indicated that any rotation pickups would need to be marked improvements on Ian Anderson and/or Grant Holmes, who are out of minor league options and are vying for back-end jobs. Robertson would be an upgrade for any team’s bullpen. Atlanta has a few questionable spots in the middle innings. Their relief group is anchored by a strong four of Raisel Iglesias, Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee, however.
A team’s luxury tax number isn’t calculated until the end of the season. The Braves hope to add to the roster midseason. If they added a few million dollars to their CBT payroll with a Spring Training free agent pickup, a midseason trade or two could push them past $241MM. Their current $230MM calculation is an unofficial estimate, so it’s possible that number is off a couple million dollars in either direction.
Clubs are generally hesitant about narrowly exceeding the luxury tax threshold. Teams pay escalating penalties for going beyond the marker in consecutive seasons. Staying underneath $241MM would allow the Braves to reset their status rather than pushing them to third-time payors, which comes with the top tax rates. The tax is only on the overages, so they’d have a minimal tax bill if they only exceed the threshold by a few million dollars, but the repeat penalties could limit their financial flexibility in future offseasons. They’ll need to weigh that against the benefits of short-term upgrades as they vie with the Phillies and Mets atop the NL East in 2025.
MLBTR Podcast: Atlanta’s Pitching Depth, Iglesias, Jobe, Castillo, And More!
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors for a mailbag episode. We spent the entire show answering questions from listeners, including…
- Can the Braves seriously go into the season with this rotation depth? (1:50)
- Could the Braves add to the bullpen before the season starts? (9:25)
- Why is David Robertson not signed? (13:00)
- Could the Mets and Jose Iglesias reunite on a one-year, $5MM deal with a vesting option? (17:10)
- Should the Cubs have signed Jose Iglesias instead of Justin Turner? (24:35)
- Could there be a battle forming for the final rotation spots for the Tigers between Casey Mize, Kenta Maeda and Jackson Jobe? (30:35)
- Are the Mariners waiting for a pitching injury on another team to trade Luis Castillo? (38:05)
- When a team like the Dodgers does significant deferrals, what year’s payroll does the money go on? (43:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr. – listen here
- Pete Alonso’s Deal, And Potential Landing Spots For Bregman and Arenado – listen here
- Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!