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Marlins Looking To Add Starting Pitcher

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The Marlins pulled off one of the bigger moves of deadline season last night, acquiring back-end reliever David Robertson for a pair of promising low minors prospects. It’s the first of what is likely to be multiple additions for a Miami club that currently sits just outside the NL Wild Card picture.

Before the Robertson deal, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported that adding both a starter and a reliever were Miami’s top priorities. They moved quickly on the latter front but figure to explore the rotation market over the coming days.

It’s surprising to see the Fish looking for rotation help at first glance. For a few seasons, Miami has skewed rotation-heavy and been light on offense. As a result, the Marlins dealt Pablo López to Minnesota for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster.

That said, the Marlins’ rotation has been more good than exceptional in 2023. They rank 11th in starting pitching ERA, allowing 4.11 earned runs per nine innings. They’re third in strikeout rate (25.4%), 11th in walks (7.5%) and third in grounder percentage (45.9%). Starting pitching certainly hasn’t been a weakness, but it hasn’t been quite as effective as last year’s group — which ranked eighth in ERA behind a Cy Young performance from Sandy Alcantara.

Some amount of regression was probably inevitable. The López trade subtracted arguably Miami’s second-best starter. The Marlins rearranged their infield, installing Arraez at second base to push Jazz Chisholm to the outfield. They signed Jean Segura to move to third and dealt away Miguel Rojas while moving Joey Wendle to shortstop. All those transactions were designed to add offense — and the Arraez trade in particular has achieved that — but come with the expected effect of reducing the defensive efficiency behind a ground-ball heavy pitching staff.

That’s among the reasons for Alcantara’s step back, although there are myriad factors whenever a pitcher’s ERA jumps more than two runs (from 2.28 to 4.46). They’re obviously not going to displace Alcantara from the rotation, but his relative down season magnifies some of the other challenges Miami has faced.

Trevor Rogers has been on the injured list since the middle of April; a partial tear in his non-throwing shoulder leaves him with an uncertain return timetable. Free agent pickup Johnny Cueto lost a couple months to injury and was knocked around on his minor league rehab stint. Miami broke him in as a reliever before moving him back into the rotation last weekend.

Top prospect Eury Pérez has had a brilliant start to his MLB career, but he’s back in the minors temporarily as the club keeps an eye on his workload. The 20-year-old has already set a personal high with 86 2/3 innings between Double-A and the majors this season. Bryan Hoeing has gotten six starts but allowed a 6.66 ERA in 24 1/3 frames over that stretch. He’s been much better in a multi-inning relief role.

There have also been signs of promise, of course. Jesús Luzardo has taken another step forward and looks like a #2 caliber starter. Braxton Garrett, who opened the season in the minors, has stepped up with a 4.32 ERA and above-average peripherals through 100 innings. Edward Cabrera is missing plenty of bats and racking up grounders, though he’s walking over 14% of opponents and has an ERA approaching 5.00.

Miami has plenty of high-upside arms who are capable of starting a playoff game if they play into October. They don’t need to shop at the top of the rotation market. There’s some sense in adding a stable back-end starter to ease the workload on some of Miami’s younger arms — in effect playing the role the Marlins envisioned from Cueto when they signed him in January.

While rotation help now seems to be the front office’s priority, Ng and her group will also certainly remain on the lookout for ways to add to the lineup. They’ve been loosely linked to Jeimer Candelario and Tim Anderson within the past week. Rosenthal writes that Miami made a run at first baseman Carlos Santana before the Pirates dealt him to Milwaukee. The Marlins should have a few irons in the fire over the next few days as a somewhat surprising entrant into the rotation market.

Marlins Acquire David Robertson

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The Mets and Marlins pulled off a late-night divisional swap on Thursday. Miami acquired veteran reliever David Robertson in exchange for low minors prospects Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez. The Fish transferred Matt Barnes to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Robertson was one of the top rental relievers on the trade market for the second straight summer. The Cubs flipped the right-hander to the Phillies at last year’s deadline, bringing back pitching prospect Ben Brown. Robertson helped Philadelphia’s run to a pennant in 2022; he’ll hope for a similar late-season push in Miami.

Signed to a one-year, $10MM free agent deal over the offseason, the former All-Star was supposed to assume a key setup role in Queens. Edwin Díaz’s freak knee injury pushed Robertson into the ninth inning unexpectedly. While much of the New York roster has underperformed, the 15-year MLB veteran had a very strong few months in Flushing.

Robertson owns a 2.05 ERA across 44 innings. He’s well on his way to what’d be the sixth sub-3.00 showing of his career. He’s striking out just under 28% of opposing hitters while generating whiffs on a quality 13.1% of his offerings. Robertson’s command had been spotty in 2022 — perhaps a reflection of rust after injuries cost him the bulk of the 2019-21 seasons — but he’s dialed the strike-throwing back in this season. Robertson has walked only 7.6% of batters faced.

He’s 14-17 in save opportunities and has picked up an additional seven holds. Robertson has dominated right and left-handed hitters alike this season and brings a rare consistency for a single-inning reliever. He’ll take on a key high-leverage role for the Fish, likely taking over closing duties. Left-handers Tanner Scott and A.J. Puk are also in the late innings. Miami’s bullpen was a bit thinner on right-handed options, so they’ll bring in Robertson one day after a swap of change-of-scenery relievers sent Dylan Floro to Minnesota for Jorge López.

The intra-division swap serves as a reminder of how disappointing the Mets’ 2023 campaign has been. New York, coming off a 101-win season and running the highest payroll in MLB history, entered the year with championship aspirations. Miami was viewed more as an upstart, a team with plenty of young talent that faced an uphill battle to finish higher than fourth in their division.

Four months later, the Marlins are buying from the Mets. Miami held a Wild Card spot for the bulk of the season. They’ve hit a cold spell, dropping nine of their last 11. They now find themselves outside the playoff picture but only marginally, as they’re half a game behind Cincinnati for the National League’s last postseason spot.

With a real chance to make the playoffs in a 162-game schedule for the first time in two decades, the Fish will deal from the low minors to add immediate MLB help. Now that they’ve fortified the bullpen, general manager Kim Ng and her staff could try to bolster the position player group in the coming days. They’ve been tied to infielders like Tim Anderson and Jeimer Candelario in recent days.

Miami appears to have some financial breathing room. Marlins’ owner Bruce Sherman implied as much a few weeks ago, and they’ll put that into practice by taking on the roughly $3.55MM owed to Robertson through season’s end. The Mets haven’t been shy about potentially paying down contracts to facilitate a better prospect return. That apparently wasn’t necessary in Miami’s case. Roster Resource had calculated the Marlins’ payroll around $103.6MM before the deal; it’ll jump past $107MM at this point.

The cash savings for the Mets will go beyond what Miami assumes in salary. Any money which New York offloads would also come with a 90% savings in luxury taxes which the club had been set to pay. The Mets save around $3.2MM in taxes and approximately $6.7MM overall.

More meaningfully, the organization adds a pair of intriguing low level talents. Vargas, 18, is a left-handed hitting infielder out of Mexico. He’d ranked 20th among Miami prospects at Baseball America coming into the season, though BA’s Josh Norris tweets that he was rising up the ranks after impressing evaluators in the complex league this summer.

The outlet’s preseason report praised Vargas’ bat-t0-ball skills and suggested he’s likely to fit best defensively at second base. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked him ninth in the Marlins’ system at the end of May, similarly praising his hit tool. Vargas has a .283/.457/.442 line with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts in 33 games this year.

Hernandez, 19, is a switch-hitting backstop from Venezuela. He’s repeating the level at the complex league but raking at a .298/.464/.452 clip over 31 games. FanGraphs ranked him 24th in the Miami system, crediting his advanced hit tool and above-average arm strength. There’s ample variability in targeting players this young, but each of Vargas and Hernandez seems to have a shot at being an everyday player down the line if they develop as hoped.

That’ll be little consolation for the Mets in the short term. Moving Robertson confirms their increasingly obvious place as deadline sellers. Other potential free agents like Tommy Pham, Carlos Carrasco and Mark Canha (whose contract contains a ’24 club option) could follow Robertson out the door. The Mets may not have the appetite for a larger-scale rebuild, but their place in the standings this year has gotten too hard to ignore.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Marlins were acquiring Robertson. Rosenthal and Will Sammon first reported the Mets were receiving two minor league hitters in return. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first with the return of Vargas and Hernandez. The Post’s Joel Sherman confirmed the Marlins were taking on all of Robertson’s remaining money.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants Have Shown Interest In Paul DeJong, Nicky Lopez

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The Giants are known to be in search of middle infield help. Two names under consideration: Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong and Royals second baseman Nicky Lopez, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

DeJong seems very likely to be dealt within the next few days. The Cards are preparing to move a number of short-term pieces as they regroup for 2024. DeJong is in the final guaranteed season of his contract; the club holds a $12.5MM option for next season but seems unlikely to exercise it.

After a pair of dismal offensive seasons, DeJong has had something of a return to form in 2023. The right-handed hitter owns a .237/.303/.422 line over 297 plate appearances. He’s striking out at a lofty 29% clip but has connected on 13 home runs in roughly half a season of playing time.

That’s exactly league average offense by measure of wRC+. The scope of the production could lend itself particularly well to more matchup usage. DeJong entered play tonight hitting only .227/.279/.411 against same-handed pitching, but he’s teed off on lefties at a .274/.378/.468 clip.

The Giants are as aggressive as any team in leveraging platoon matchups. They haven’t had to do so at shortstop in recent years. Brandon Crawford has had a hold on the everyday job there. Yet the lefty-swinging Crawford is hitting only .207/.285/.333 in 65 contests this season. He’s not hitting well against pitchers of either handedness. He also landed on the injured list with left knee inflammation 10 days ago, his second IL stint of the year.

Crawford joined Thairo Estrada on the shelf. San Francisco’s second baseman has been down for three weeks after breaking his hand on a hit-by-pitch. Estrada recently began baseball activities and could make it back before too long, but the Giants are presently relying on a rookie rotation of Brett Wisely, Marco Luciano and Casey Schmitt up the middle without much success.

DeJong would bring above-average shortstop defense and some pop against left-handed pitching. Lopez would strictly be a defensive target. The lefty-swinging infielder hasn’t hit a home run in two years and carries a .223/.292/.276 batting line since the start of 2022. Yet he has drawn strong marks for his second base defense and is capable of manning shortstop or third base effectively as well.

Lopez would be easier to accommodate financially. The 28-year-old is playing this season on a $3.7MM arbitration salary, around $1.3MM of which is still to be paid out. He’s controllable for another two years after this but seems to be trending towards a non-tender. DeJong is making $9MM this year and still due around $3.2MM in salary, plus a $2MM buyout on next year’s option.

Both Kansas City and St. Louis have alternatives who could take on a larger middle infield role if they were to push across a deal with San Francisco. The Royals have already curtailed Lopez’s playing time in favor of a longer look at Michael Massey. DeJong is playing every day in St. Louis, but the Cards have Tommy Edman as a potential immediate replacement and top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn in Triple-A.

St. Louis also has depth on the other side of the second base bag. Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman are quality bat-first second basemen with extended control windows. With that middle infield strength in mind, Feinsand writes that St. Louis has also gotten interest from various clubs (not necessarily San Francisco) on Donovan and Edman.

Of course, the asking price on Edman or Donovan would be far higher. They’re a lot less likely to move than DeJong. Not only do they have extended control windows (Edman through 2025, Donovan past ’28), neither is fully healthy right now.

Edman is on the injured list with wrist inflammation. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat relayed this afternoon (on Twitter) that he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint over the weekend. Donovan is healthy enough to hit but playing through a flexor tendon injury in his right arm. He’s unable to throw and relegated to DH duty for now. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote earlier in the week that Donovan was hoping to avoid surgery and return to defensive work at some point this season. Even if that proves to be the case, he wouldn’t be a middle infield option for anyone in the immediate future.

Orioles Interested In Michael Lorenzen

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The Orioles are among the teams eyeing Tigers’ starter Michael Lorenzen, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They join the Astros and Rays as clubs reportedly in the mix for the Detroit righty.

Just as Lorenzen is a sensible target for Houston and Tampa Bay, the fit for Baltimore is straightforward. Lorenzen seems highly likely to move before next Tuesday’s deadline. He’s an impending free agent on a Detroit club that fell 11 games below .500 upon getting swept in a doubleheader against the Angels today.

The first-time All-Star is having arguably the best season of his career. It’s his second straight season as a full-time starter. After posting league average numbers in 18 starts for the Angels last year, the 31-year-old has been a mid-rotation caliber arm this season. Even following a five-inning, three-run performance against the Halos this afternoon, he carries a 3.58 ERA across 105 2/3 frames.

Lorenzen’s underlying marks aren’t quite that strong, largely because he’s not missing a ton of bats. His 19.9% strikeout rate is a couple points below league average, while his 42.5% grounder percentage is right around par. The nine-year MLB veteran has walked only 6.5% of opponents, though, a notable improvement on last year’s 10.7% figure. He’s mixing five pitches with some amount of regularity and hasn’t had any platoon concerns.

That production makes him a logical target for win-now teams seeking rotation help. The Orioles certainly qualify. Baltimore  has the best record in the American League at 62-40. They’re up a game and a half (three in the loss column) on Tampa Bay for the AL East lead. The rebuild is over, and while there’s still some question about how aggressively the O’s will push chips in, they could make a competitive offer for Lorenzen without subtracting from the top of the farm system.

Detroit signed Lorenzen to an $8.5MM free agent deal. Just over $3MM of that salary is yet to be paid out. Lorenzen has already locked in an extra $250K in incentives by passing the 100-inning mark and would earn a matching amount at 125, 150, 175, 195 and 205 frames.

That’s a modest price to pay for a mid-rotation arm who’d likely step into the projected playoff rotation. Baltimore’s starting staff is its relative weak point. The O’s have an excellent offense and elite relief corps but rank 17th in MLB with a 4.52 rotation ERA.

Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells each have a sub-4.00 mark with slightly above-average strikeout/walk profiles. Kyle Gibson has offered his typically steady back-of-the-rotation innings. Dean Kremer has been a bit homer-prone en route to a fine but unexciting 4.59 ERA in 21 starts. Offseason trade pickup Cole Irvin has struggled and bounced in and out of the rotation, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez has an ERA pushing 7.00 through his first 12 big league outings.

Red Sox Release Jake Faria

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The Red Sox have released right-hander Jake Faria, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. He had already been outrighted off the 40-man roster last week. He’ll now return to the open market entirely.

Faria pitched once for Boston this season, allowing five runs in two innings as a mop-up reliever. That marked his first big league outing in two years. Faria has otherwise spent the season with Triple-A Worcester. He’s started nine of 19 appearances there, allowing a 6.47 ERA over 55 2/3 innings. Faria has a below-average 17.5% strikeout percentage while walking 13.3% of opponents.

The 29-year-old has pitched in parts of five big league seasons. He had success as a rookie with the Rays in 2017 but has generally struggled since then. Faria owns a 4.87 ERA in 205 MLB innings and a 4.80 mark through parts of seven Triple-A campaigns.

Braves Sign Four To Minor League Deals

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The Braves recently signed four players to minor league contracts, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. Three players — relievers Seth Elledge and Danny Young and outfielder Eli White — return to the organization after being cut loose within the past few days. Atlanta also added reliever Rowan Wick, who’d been released by the Cubs last week.

Wick, 30, appeared in the majors with Chicago every season between 2019-22. He combined for a 3.66 ERA across 137 2/3 innings, missing bats at a slightly above-average rate but issuing a few more walks than ideal. The Cubs ran him through outright waivers in Spring Training and had kept him in Triple-A for the first half.

The right-hander has had a tough season at the top minor league level. He’s been tagged for more than a run per inning through 30 1/3 frames. His 24.1% strikeout percentage was fine, but he’d walked upwards of 13% of batters faced and allowed nine home runs. The Braves will take a no-risk flier on a change of scenery. Wick is making $1.55MM this season; the Cubs are on the hook for that tab, as Atlanta will only owe him the prorated portion of the $720K minimum salary if he spends any time on the big league roster.

Elledge has bounced between three organizations on the year. The 27-year-old righty hasn’t gotten into an MLB game this year and still awaits his first opportunity since 2021. He’d elected free agency after being outrighted by Atlanta on Tuesday but quickly circled back on a new minor league pact (a fairly common course of action for players in that situation). He has a 4.66 ERA in 36 2/3 innings over three Triple-A affiliates on the season.

Young and White recently sustained season-ending injuries while playing for Gwinnett. Atlanta released both players to clear space on the 40-man roster as a result. They’re each back in the organization — perhaps on two-year minor league pacts — to rehab from those injuries without holding spots on the 40-man.

Padres Reportedly Willing To Listen To Offers On Juan Soto; Trade Seen As Unlikely

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The Padres have signaled a willingness to hear trade offers on Juan Soto, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman writes that San Diego is also open to overtures on Blake Snell and Josh Hader, though he reiterates the Friars’ preference would be to add to the roster before next Tuesday’s deadline.

For myriad reasons, it seems very unlikely the Padres would move Soto in the coming days. They’re only a year removed from acquiring him and Josh Bell in perhaps the biggest deadline blockbuster ever, sending CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and top prospects James Wood and Robert Hassell III as part of the package to Washington. Pivoting to deal him away within a year would represent a major change in direction for a franchise that has rapidly escalated payroll and seemed hellbent on collecting as many stars as possible.

San Diego chairman Peter Seidler went on record at the start of July to say the organization wasn’t “going to reverse course” from that aggressiveness. Obviously, the Friars haven’t pulled out of their middling performance in the few weeks since then, but a Soto trade would run directly contrary to that message.

Indeed, Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote just two days ago that the Padres had been rebuffing offers on Hader and Snell. Moving Soto — who is eligible for arbitration for a season beyond this one — would require a significant change of heart. There’s been a little more chatter of late about the possibility of Hader and Snell coming available (USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also suggested as much this morning), but they’re more logical trade candidates than Soto since they’re both headed to free agency after this season.

San Diego, owner of a 49-54 record, faces a double-digit game deficit in the NL West. They’re 6.5 out of a Wild Card spot with four teams to surpass. Their place in the standings makes a run at the postseason this year unlikely, though certainly not impossible. It’s hard to envision this club kicking off any kind of longer-term retool and a Soto trade would obviously deal a huge hit to their 2024 lineup.

While Soto got off to a slow start to the season by his own huge standards, he’s looked like himself over the past few months. He owns a .286/.434/.548 line since the start of May and carries a .262/.417/.501 slash overall. There’d clearly be enormous interest if the Friars were to genuinely market the three-time All-Star. It seems they’re currently open to offers more so as a matter of due diligence than any kind of eagerness to deal him.

Whether to move the impending free agents or push in more chips in hopes of an excellent second half could be determined in large part by their next few games. The Padres have four more outings before the deadline: a three-game set at home against the division-leading Rangers, then the first contest of a series in Colorado.

Brewers Rumors: Middle Infield, Defense, Winker, Caratini

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The Brewers took two of three from the Reds this week, pushing their lead over Cincinnati in the NL Central to a game and a half. As they try to hang onto their spot atop the division, Milwaukee looks to add in the next five days.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted earlier this week the Brew Crew were among the clubs involved in the middle infield market. That’s presumably a reflection of the middling production they’ve gotten out of the keystone. At shortstop, Willy Adames is having a down offensive year, but he’s an excellent defender and clubhouse leader. It’s hard to imagine the Brewers are considering curtailing his playing time.

That might not be the case on the other side of the bag. Milwaukee second basemen have hit .222/.300/.311 on the season. They’re 21st in on-base percentage and above only the Mariners and White Sox in slugging output.

The bulk of those reps have fallen to rookie Brice Turang. The former top prospect hasn’t hit much in his first look at big league arms. Through 259 plate appearances, he owns a meager .204/.271/.315 line with four home runs. Public defensive metrics have pegged him as a plus with the glove; he’s eight runs above average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and two runs above par, per Statcast.

Adding at the keystone would be a means to perhaps inject some life into a mediocre lineup. The Brewers rank 25th in MLB in runs despite playing home games in the rather hitter-friendly American Family Field. Luis Urías, who opened the season at third base and has also seen some second base action, hit just .145/.299/.236 and has spent the past month in Triple-A.

Nevertheless, general manager Matt Arnold struck a balanced tone in a chat with Adam McCalvy of MLB.com before yesterday’s game. Arnold noted the front office didn’t want to deal too much of a hit to the team’s run prevention-first mentality. “I think we want to try to help this team, but we know we’re built around pitching and defense. Anytime you want to add a quote-unquote bat, sometimes those guys aren’t very good defenders,” he told McCalvy. Arnold added the club was considering ways to upgrade but noted they were to be responsible in not parting with too much young talent.

That’s a consideration every team looking for short-term help will have to weigh, of course. It’d register as a surprise if the Brewers didn’t add to the lineup in some capacity, even if it’s more of a complementary pickup than an impact bat. The Brewers had gotten very little out of the main first base/designated hitter tandem of Rowdy Tellez and Jesse Winker. Tellez has been out since July 5 with a forearm issue. The latter just joined him on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 25, because of back spasms.

Milwaukee has relied upon Owen Miller as its top first baseman of late. He’s probably better suited for a multi-positional infield role off the bench. The Brewers have Tyrone Taylor (hitting .159/.176/.261 in 34 games) and Abraham Toro as other options, while longtime minor leaguer Andruw Monasterio has stepped into the primary third base role with Brian Anderson out of action. Monasterio has performed well over 117 trips to the dish as a 26-year-old rookie.

There are a few different areas in which Milwaukee could look for offensive help. A right side infielder would be the most straightforward, though McCalvy notes the Brew Crew are open to upgrading the outfield as well. Rookies Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer are taking everyday roles alongside Christian Yelich. The latter could see more DH reps if the Brewers added on the grass.

While most of the focus for Milwaukee will be on which players they acquire, there’s a possibility of dealing off the MLB roster at a position of surplus. Robert Murray of FanSided wrote last night that backup catcher Víctor Caratini is a potential trade candidate. That’d ostensibly be about cashing him in for immediate MLB depth in another area.

Caratini, 30 next month, is having a nice season in a limited role. He owns a .248/.338/.372 line with five homers through 148 plate appearances. Statcast has given him slightly above-average marks for his pitch framing and blocking. It’s not the kind of offense that’d be ideal in an extended first base or DH capacity but is strong for a #2 catcher. With William Contreras behind the dish, there’s no path for Caratini to get more consistent reps there barring injury.

The switch-hitting backstop is playing this season on a modest $2.8MM arbitration salary. He’ll be a free agent for the first time at year’s end. Contreras is entrenched as the long-term catcher, so Caratini could look for a larger role elsewhere once he hits the open market.

Perhaps another team is willing to give him more consistent reps down the stretch. There aren’t many apparent catching trade candidates this summer. Most productive backstops are already on contenders and the upcoming free agent class at the position is thin. Caratini would only appeal to other clubs with 2023 postseason aspirations — there’s little reason to trade for a rental otherwise — but teams like the Yankees, Marlins or Diamondbacks could look for short-term help behind the plate.

Angels Acquire Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez

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The Angels are pushing the chips in. The Halos swung a late-night trade for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from the White Sox, the teams announced. Prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush are going back to Chicago.

Los Angeles declared themselves buyers this evening when they formally took Shohei Ohtani off the trade market. Once they committed to making a push in Ohtani’s final season of club control, there was little reason not to act boldly. They’ve done just that, surrendering two of their top prospects for the top rental starter available and a relief upgrade.

Ironically, Giolito and López both landed with the White Sox in the same trade nearly seven years ago. Both had debuted with the Nationals in 2016 before being included in the Adam Eaton package during that year’s Winter Meetings. They’ve spent the past six-plus seasons on Chicago’s South Side.

Giolito has developed into the more valuable of the duo. After a disastrous 2018 season, the Southern California native blossomed into an upper mid-rotation starter. He has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five years, including a 3.79 mark through 121 frames this season.

He has backed up that solid run prevention with above-average peripherals. Giolito is striking out 25.8% of opponents against an 8.3% walk rate. He’s generating swinging strikes on 11.9% of his offerings. It’s a third consecutive season in which he’s been above-average across the board.

Giolito hasn’t quite developed into the ace it seemed he might become when he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting in 2019-20. His average fastball speed is down a tick from those peak seasons, and he’s lost a few whiffs on each of his offerings. Still, the 29-year-old is a clear playoff caliber starter. He averages just under six innings per start while holding opponents to a .232/.301/.430 batting line. Giolito is effective against hitters of either handedness and has essentially avoided any major injuries in his MLB career.

That kind of durability and effectiveness should be a major boost to a Halos’ rotation that entered play Wednesday ranked 20th in the majors in ERA. Ohtani is the one pitcher allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine on the season. Reid Detmers has a 4.38 ERA but a strikeout rate north of 29% that suggests he fits well in the middle of a rotation. Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Canning have been fine back-end arms. Tyler Anderson has underperformed in the first season of a three-year deal, working to a 5.18 ERA. He slots sixth in the Halos’ six-man starting staff, while Giolito’s addition should firmly push Jaime Barria into long relief if the rest of the group stays healthy.

Barria has been more effective out of the bullpen than when pressed into rotation work. Giolito’s acquisition indirectly upgrades the relief corps in that regard, while the addition of López helps the bullpen in a more straightforward way.

The 29-year-old righty moved to relief for good by the start of the 2022 season. He was excellent in that role last year, pitching to a 2.76 ERA across 65 1/3 frames. It has been more of a mixed bag in 2023. López carries a 4.29 ERA in 42 innings. His walks have jumped from a minuscule 4.3% clip last year to a concerning 12.4% rate.

However, the uptick in free passes has been paired with a jump in whiffs. López has punched out a career-best 29.2% of batters faced. He’s picking up swinging strikes on 13.4% of his offerings while averaging 98.3 MPH on his heater and 87.9 MPH on the slider. López is a high-octane arm to pair with Matt Moore as setup options in front of closer Carlos Estévez. The Halos could look for additional ways of bolstering the middle innings mix between now and the August 1 trade deadline.

Both Giolito and López are firmly win-now pieces. Each is an impending free agent. Giolito is arguably the top non-Ohtani starter who’ll hit the open market. He’s on his way to exceeding nine figures. That always made it likely the White Sox — whose franchise-record expenditure is the $75MM Andrew Benintendi pact — would not re-sign him.

A midseason deal, while not unexpected, is a nice boost to Giolito’s eventual earning power. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a qualifying offer. Giolito would obviously have received one had the Sox retained him past the deadline, but he’ll now hit the open market without a signing team needing to forfeit draft capital.

The more immediate benefit, of course, is that both pitchers will get a chance to compete for a postseason spot. The Halos are four games out in the Wild Card race and seven back in the AL West. They’re clearly pushing the chips in for this season and figure to continue to be aggressive in the next few days. Adding corner infield help with Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury on the shelf and Jared Walsh struggling enough to be optioned to Triple-A makes plenty of sense; to that end, the Halos have reportedly been in touch with the Nationals regarding third baseman Jeimer Candelario.

As part of that all-in mentality, the Angels relinquished a pair of their most talented prospects. Quero is one of the game’s top minor league backstops. The switch-hitter reached Double-A by his 20th birthday and is holding his own in a pitcher-friendly setting. Over 317 plate appearances, Quero owns a .245/.385/.332 batting line. He’s only hit three home runs but is walking at a massive 17% clip while striking out just 16.7% of the time.

That kind of plate discipline is exceptionally rare for a hitter so young. The Cuban-born backstop is the sport’s #61 overall prospect at FanGraphs and 85th at Baseball America. Scouting reports predictably rave about his advanced offensive skills and suggest he has a good chance to be a regular in the long term.

The Halos already have a potential catcher of the future in Logan O’Hoppe. Acquired from the Phillies last summer, O’Hoppe has been limited to 21 big league contests because of a labrum tear in his shoulder. He’s controllable for five seasons beyond this one, though, perhaps making Quero a little more expendable to the organization.

Chicago had no such long-term answer behind the dish. Yasmani Grandal is headed to free agency on the heels of a fine but unexceptional year. It’s probably unreasonable to expect Quero to immediately succeed Grandal as the #1 backstop next season, but it doesn’t seem out of the question he could reach the majors at some point in 2024. That upper minors proximity is surely appealing to a Chicago team reloading for next year.

Bush, a 23-year-old southpaw, was also at Double-A. A second-round pick out of St. Mary’s in 2021, he ranked ninth among Angels’ prospects in Eric Longenhagen’s recent organizational rankings at FanGraphs. Both Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (on Twitter) suggest the 6’6″ hurler has a chance to stick as a starter and praise his slider, though Longenhagen raises concerns about his low-90s fastball. Bush has been a little homer-prone in his first six Double-A starts but is striking out nearly 30% of opponents there.

It’s a strong return for a pair of impending free agents, with Quero the clear headliner. Yet it’s understandable the Angels would part with those players (particularly with O’Hoppe in the fold) to make a push this season. Their aggressiveness extends beyond the prospect capital, as the trade officially pushed them into luxury tax territory.

The Halos were right around the $233MM competitive balance tax threshold before the move. They’re taking on what remains of the respective $10.4MM and $3.625MM arbitration salaries for Giolito and López. That’s around $3.75MM on Giolito and $1.31MM on López. That’ll push their estimated CBT figure to around $238MM pending future additions.

It’s clear owner Arte Moreno will sign off on paying the tax for the first time. The financial penalties of doing so are rather minimal. As a first-time payor, they’ll pay a 20% tax on expenditures between $233MM and $253MM. The tax money they’re taking on with today’s trade is just over $1MM, a marginal amount in comparison to the team’s overall spending.

More notably, surpassing the CBT reduces the draft compensation they’d receive if they lose a qualified free agent. Teams that pay the luxury tax receive a compensation pick after the fourth round if a player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere. Clubs that stay below the threshold get a compensatory choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round.

Ohtani will obviously reject a QO. If the Angels don’t re-sign him, going past the CBT means they’re moving the draft compensation back a couple rounds. That’s a risk worth taking to maximize the chances of getting to the playoffs in Ohtani’s final season of arbitration. The Angels are all-in, and while this’ll probably be their biggest move of deadline season, there’s no reason to think it’s their last.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Angels and White Sox were finalizing a trade of Giolito and López for Quero and Bush.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Acquire Mauricio Llovera From Giants

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The Red Sox acquired reliever Mauricio Llovera from the Giants, per a club announcement. Minor league righty Marques Johnson is going to San Francisco in return. The Sox transferred Kaleb Ort from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list to create space on the 40-man roster for Llovera, whom San Francisco had recently designated for assignment.

Llovera, 27, has pitched for the Giants in each of the past two seasons. The right-hander got into 17 games last year, working to a 4.41 ERA through 16 1/3 innings. San Francisco non-tendered him at the start of the offseason but brought him back on a new minor league pact.

The Venezuela native worked to a 3.92 ERA over 20 2/3 frames in a hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. San Francisco selected his contract in early July, deploying him in five big league contests. He worked 5 1/3 frames, allowing a run on four hits with five strikeouts and two walks.

Llovera has exhausted his option years, meaning the Giants couldn’t send him back to the minors once they called him up. They designated him for assignment on Saturday to make room in the bullpen for Luke Jackson to return from the injured list. Llovera’s upper minors production intrigued the Sox enough they’re willing to install him in the middle innings.

Boston also can’t option him to the minors, so he’ll be on the MLB roster once he reports to the club. He’s the third upper level right-handed relief arm added to the organization within the past two days. The Sox acquired Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman from the Dodgers in the Enrique Hernández trade. Both those pitchers were assigned to Triple-A Worcester as upper minors depth.

In return for a pitcher who’d been squeezed off the roster, San Francisco picks up a low minors reliever. Johnson was an 11th-round selection out of Long Beach State last season. He owns a 6.55 ERA through 34 1/3 innings across 28 outings at Low-A. Johnson has punched out 27.9% of opponents but is walking batters at an alarming 15.6% clip.

Ort has been out since July 5 with inflammation in his throwing elbow. He’s now ineligible to return to the MLB roster until the first week of September. The 31-year-old has a 6.26 ERA over 23 innings on the season.

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