Royals President Expresses Openness To Trading Starter For Outfielder
The Royals have been looking for outfield upgrades for years. This winter, they seem to have a tight budget but a strong rotation, which has led to speculation about them trading a starting pitcher for an outfielder. “Our starting pitching, we have some depth there,” Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo tells Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. “A lot of teams are looking for starting pitching, so if we have what they may be interested in, and they have an outfielder that would be of interest, then there’s potentially the opportunity to make a deal.” Speier notes that the Royals had interest in Jarren Duran of the Red Sox prior to the trade deadline.
As mentioned, it’s been a long time since the Royals got strong production from the grass. Last winter, they were connected to free agents such as Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar but fell short in those pursuits. Kansas City outfielders produced a collective line of .225/.285/.348 in 2025. That resulted in a 73 wRC+, indicating they were 27% below league average, the worst group in the majors.
It was reported last month that the club is looking for outfield help on the trade market. That makes sense for a number of reasons. For one, there’s the payroll. Back in October, owner John Sherman suggested the club would likely have a similar payroll in 2026 as they did in 2025. RosterResource currently projects the club to spend $139MM on the 2026 squad, which is already above the $138MM they spent by the end of 2025.
Also, the free agent outfield market has a big gap. At the top, there are guys like Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger, who will be out of the Royals’ price range. Then there’s a big drop to the tier featuring guys like Mike Yastrzemski and Harrison Bader. The Royals just acquired Yastrzemski at the deadline and he played well for them. Presumably, they would have interest in bringing him back but he might get an eight-figure deal and is now 35 years old, so it would make sense if they considered cheaper and/or younger options.
Put it all together and trading from the rotation seems like a decent possibility, something that MLBTR’s Nick Deeds explored a few weeks back. The Royals currently have Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, Bailey Falter, Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila and Ben Kudrna for five rotation spots. A trade of Wacha or Lugo feels unlikely because they both signed extensions with the Royals in the past 13 months. Bubic has reportedly drawn some trade interest but he might not be able to bring back a massive return. He is down to one year of club control and missed the final few months of 2025 due to a rotator cuff strain.
That perhaps points to Ragans as the most logical candidate, but there are issues there as well. It would be a sell-low move for the Royals. He finished fourth in American League Cy Young voting in 2024 by putting up a 3.14 earned run average over 186 1/3 innings. But in 2025, he spent a decent amount of time on the injured list due to groin and rotator cuff injuries. He only made 13 starts with his ERA jumping to 4.67.
He is still controllable for another three years. He is already signed for $4.5MM in 2026 and $7.5MM in 2027. He would then be controllable for the 2028 campaign via arbitration. Despite his rough 2025, the Royals would surely put a massive asking price on him, considering his talent, affordability and controllability. “I wouldn’t say off limits,” Picollo said, when asked if any of his pitchers are untouchable. “There would have to be a really big return for one [starter] in particular.” That statement seems likely to be in reference to Ragans.
The Royals could perhaps try to trade one of the group including Cameron, Bergert, Kolek, Avila and Kudrna but no one in that group has shown the tremendous ceiling of Ragans. Though those players are still in their pre-arb years, a team looking for a surefire rotation upgrade wouldn’t have as much interest as they would in Ragans.
For the Red Sox, they are a logical trade partner for the Royals. They have been looking for rotation upgrades and have too many outfielders. Currently, their outfield mix consists of Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida, with prospect Jhostynxon García waiting in the wings.
Trade rumors around this group have been around for quite a while. Anthony and Rafaela have been signed to extensions and seem very unlikely to be available. The Sox would probably love to move Yoshida but his contract and poor performance give him negative trade value. Wilyer and Abreu feel a bit redundant, so it’s those two who often appear in rumors most often. Both are strong defenders who hit left-handed and have notable platoon splits.
Abreu still has four years of club control remaining whereas Duran as three. Duran also qualified for arbitration a year early as a Super Two player, meaning he gets four arb passes instead of just three. While Abreu is still a year away from arbitration, Duran made $3.85MM in 2025 and will get a bump to $7.75MM plus performance bonuses in 2026. The Sox don’t seem to have a ton of powder dry for the rest of the offseason, so perhaps they would lean towards trading Duran. He could perhaps bring back a notable return on the pitching front while also saving the Sox some money.
Duran has slashed .271/.337/.468 since the start of 2024 for a 121 wRC+. He has also stolen 58 bases and received strong grades for his outfield defense. FanGraphs credited with 10.8 wins above replacement over that two-year span.
That kind of production would certainly look good in the Kansas City outfield. Currently, there’s not a lot locked in. Jac Caglianone will probably get another chance, even though he performed poorly in his 2025 debut. Kyle Isbel projects as the favorite in center, mostly on account of his glove. Duran has lots of center field experience but the Sox have been using him in left recently, largely in deference to Rafaela. Guys like Drew Waters, Kameron Misner, John Rave and Dairon Blanco are on the roster but would ideally be pushed down the depth chart.
The Sox already made one notable addition to their rotation by acquiring Sonny Gray from the Cardinals. He’ll slot in alongside Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello as locks for the front of the Boston rotation. That leaves two spots available for guys like Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison and others. Crawford and Sandoval are big wild cards after spending 2025 on the IL, while the others are young guys still looking to get fully established in the big leagues.
Reportedly, the Sox are focused on the lineup after the Gray trade but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be interested in further bolstering the rotation if they get a chance. Perhaps the Royals and Red Sox can line something up but there are many other possible paths. If Ragans is available, then the Royals will presumably discuss him with dozens of other clubs and not just the Red Sox. Boston, meanwhile, would surely get plenty of calls if they were willing to deal Duran.
Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images
Looking At The Mariners’ Internal Infield Options
At the end of the 2025 season, the Mariners lost three infielders to free agency, as each of Josh Naylor, Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez hit the open market. That left shortstop J.P. Crawford as the only lock for the 2026 infield. The M’s quickly pounced to bring Naylor back, signing the first baseman to a five-year, $92.5MM deal not long after free agency began.
Reuniting with Polanco and/or Suárez still seems to be on the table but second and third base are open for now. What options do the Mariners have in the system at present? Let’s take a look at the possibilities.
Young is a former first-round pick, with the M’s taking him 21st overall in 2022. He came into 2025 as a consensus top 100 prospect. He was promoted to the big leagues at the end of May and primarily played second base. He eventually took 257 trips to the plate but produced a tepid .211/.302/.305 line, which translates to a wRC+ of 80.
That’s obviously less than ideal but there are some reasons for optimism. Young’s 10.9% walk rate and 18.3% strikeout rate were both strong. His .247 batting average on balls in play was more than 40 points below league average. His average exit velocity of 87.6 miles per hour was subpar but his max exit velo of 114.1 mph was in the top 10% of major league hitters. Perhaps he can tap into that premium velo a bit more as he gets more exposed to big league pitching. He hit .277/.392/.461 for a 120 wRC+ in Triple-A prior to his promotion, so perhaps his uninspiring major league debut was just a blip.
One year after taking Young, the M’s were selecting one pick later in the first round. They used the 22nd overall pick in 2023 to grab Emerson. He had a big rise in 2025, playing 90 games in High-A, followed by 34 in Double-A and six in Triple-A. Between those three levels, he took 600 trips to the plate and slashed .285/.383/.458 for a 129 wRC+. He also stole 14 bases while primarily playing shortstop, plus a few games at third.
Emerson is now a consensus top 15 prospect in the whole league. His Triple-A experience is still minimal and he’s only 20 years old but the Mariners would presumably have at least some willingness to carry him on the Opening Day roster. MLB teams are generally more willing to do that with top prospects these days because of the PPI benefits. The M’s carried 21-year-old Julio Rodríguez on their roster throughout 2022. When he won Rookie of the Year, that netted the M’s an extra pick in 2023. That allowed them to select outfielder Jonny Farmelo just seven picks after taking Emerson.
The M’s presumably won’t just hand a job to Emerson. He will have to earn it in spring. Theoretically, he could take over third base in 2026. Crawford is slated to be a free agent a year from now, at which point Emerson could potentially move over to short. It’s also possible that Felnin Celesten is more of a factor by then. Celesten is considered a better shortstop defender than Emerson but he hasn’t reached Double-A yet.
Bliss was a second-round pick of the Diamondbacks who came to the Mariners in the 2023 deadline deal which sent Paul Sewald to the desert. His 2025 season was marred by injury. First, a torn left biceps required surgery in April. He began a rehab assignment in August but then suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee. Due to that missed time, he has a .214/.287/.367 line in just 110 big league plate appearances over the past two seasons.
His minor league track record is naturally better than that. Bliss has 739 Triple-A plate appearances with a .260/.365/.453 line and 105 wRC+. He’s also huge threat on the bases with at least 50 steals in the minors in both 2023 and 2024. He has lots of minor league experience at both middle infield positions. He never had the same prospect hype as Young or Emerson but the speed and defense could make him a valuable player with even league average offense.
Williamson was a second-round pick in 2023. He generally put up good minor league numbers but with a pesky contact-based approach and very little power. He got into 85 big league games this year and hit .253/.294/.310 for a wRC+ of 76. There could be more in the bat but Williamson is lauded more for his glovework. Statcast only had him as average in the field this year but he was credited with eight Defensive Runs Saved.
Arroyo, 21, was an international signing out of Colombia and is now a consensus Top 100 prospect. In 2025, he got into 65 High-A games and 56 Double-A contests. Between those two levels, he slashed .262/.401/.433 for a wRC+ of 139. He has a bit of experience at third base and shortstop but was kept exclusively at second base in 2025. Since he hasn’t yet played at the Triple-A level, it’s probably a bit of a reach for him to crack the Opening Day roster, but he might have an outside chance. Even if Opening Day is out of the question, a midseason promotion would be a possibility.
Leo Rivas/Miles Mastrobuoni/Samad Taylor
These three are more in the part-time or utility bucket. Rivas can draw walks but has little power. He can play the three infield spots to the left of first base as well as the outfield corners. He could be on the bench but he also has an option remaining. Mastrobuoni’s minor league profile is somewhat similar but he hasn’t hit in the majors and is now out of options. Taylor has just 83 big league plate appearances and is also out of options. He has big wheels and can also play the outfield, so he could be a nice bench piece who comes in for pinch running and/or defensive substitute opportunities.
______________________
Put it all together and it puts the Mariners in an interesting position. They are clearly in win-now mode. They just finished their fifth straight winning season. They won the West for the first time in over 20 years. They came achingly close to a World Series berth. The Astros and Rangers seem to be dealing with payroll issues. The A’s have some promise but still need to build a pitching staff. The Angels have lots of questions to be answered. The division is there for the Mariners to take.
That should arguably tilt them towards going for established big leaguers such as Polanco or Suárez or whoever else. On the other hand, there’s a chance Emerson is a future star who is ready to go. If he struggles in the spring, Williamson at least gives them a glove-first floor as a fallback. At second base, the M’s could leave it open for Young, Bliss and Arroyo to duke it out. Between the three, they would only need one of them to step forward and seize the job.
In an ideal world, a utility player who can also move to the outfield would make a lot of sense, so perhaps the M’s will make a spirited pursuit of Brendan Donovan. He could play second or third if the younger guys don’t take those jobs. If they do, he could move into the corner infield mix with Victor Robles, Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley. If that also got too crowded, the designated hitter spot is fairly open at the moment. Free agents like Willi Castro or Amed Rosario would be less-exciting versions of the Donovan pick-up.
RosterResource has the club slated for a $151MM payroll in 2026. That’s about $15MM below the $166MM they had at the end of 2025. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently said that next year’s payroll would probably be in a similar range to the prior season. Like all teams, they could use some pitching upgrades, so it will be fascinating to see how much of their remaining resources they use on the infield.
Photo courtesy of Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images
Jo Hsi Hsu Signs With NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks
Taiwanese right-hander Jo Hsi Hsu has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It’s a three-year deal with incentives worth more than $9.6MM USD. Yihsuan Wang of Yahoo Taiwan relayed the club announcement. Hat tip to CPBL Stats for relaying the details in English.
The 25-year-old righty has turned some heads with his results in the CPBL. He has thrown 305 innings for the Wei Chuan Dragons, including 114 innings in 2025 with a 2.05 earned run average. He struck out 28% of batters faced this year while limiting walks to a tiny 3.3% rate.
It was reported last week that the Dragons would make him available via the posting system and that Hsu was considering a jump to Major League Baseball, though a move to NPB seemed more probable.
A scouting report from Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan of FanGraphs suggested that many MLB clubs would likely view Hsu as a reliever. They then wondered if that would lead him to Japan in an attempt to further prove himself as a capable starter against a higher level of competition.
Hsu’s motivations aren’t known but he will indeed head to Japan. He is still quite young, so perhaps a move to North America will become viable down the road if he puts up good numbers for the Hawks.
Photo courtesy of Jasen Vinlove, Imagn Images
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Darragh McDonald
- Hello, everyone.
- If you are American, I hope you're feeling okay today.
- If you're not American, I also hope you're feeling okay today, on this unremarkable Friday.
- Anthony is off for the holidays, so I'm filling in. As always, sorry for the downgrade.
- I will be back at noon but feel free to drop questions ahead of time.
- Okay, hello!
- Already lots of questions in the queue, so let's dive in.
walterj23
- Which is the most likely going to happen to Cubs 2b Nico Hoerner before the season starts , trade him for other pieces , extend him before the season starts , or simply let him play out his final year of his contract and tag him with a qualifying offer next winter ?
Darragh McDonald
- I would guess the Cubs just let 2026 play out and see where they're at. A lot could change between now and then. Happ and Suzuki are impending free agents, in addition to Hoerner. What do they have in Matt Shaw? What about Jefferson Rojas? What about Caissie and Alcantara?
- They can then decide where to put their resources, which could mean re-signing Hoerner or one of the outfielders or something else.
Uke
- How does upcoming labor stuff affect signings? Are players more or less likely to sign long term deals? Are teams more or less likely to sign long term deals? Or does no one know what it all means?
Darragh McDonald
- This is a great question.
- A few weeks ago, I would have guessed that players would not want to be free agents in the 2026-27 offseason. But that doesn't seem to be the case.
- Bieber and Flaherty both triggered one-year player options when they probably could have got multi-year deals. Four guys accepted the QO. I expected Gleyber but not Shota, Woodruff or Grisham.
- That's five guys who probably could have got solid multi-year deals and avoided the lockout. Maybe that's small sample noise but it doesn't seem players are scared about being out there next winter.
Bobby Higginson
- Any chance the Tigers get involved in the top tier of closers?
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Brewers Reportedly Concerned About Payroll
The Brewers are concerned about their 2026 payroll, according to reporting from Will Sammon, Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic. The reporters then wonder if this will lead the Brewers to more seriously consider trading right-hander Freddy Peralta.
Milwaukee extended a $22.025MM qualifying offer to Brandon Woodruff at the end of the season. Even though he had big health questions marks, MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year, $66MM deal in free agency, even with the QO attached. However, Woodruff decided to accept.
That’s a bit of a double-edged sword for the Brewers. On the one hand, it strengthens their 2026 rotation. Woodruff missed all of 2024 and most of 2025 but was fantastic when on the bump this year. He made 12 starts, pitching 64 2/3 innings with a 3.20 earned run average, 32.3% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate. He finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain but is expected to be healthy for the start of 2026.
The downside is that Woodruff is now taking up a huge chunk of the budget and puts the Brewers in an unusual spot. Woodruff becomes just the second Brewer in franchise history to be making at least $20MM annually. The other is Christian Yelich, who is making $26MM annually through 2028, in addition to a $6.5MM buyout on a 2029 mutual option.
Milwaukee generally runs a payroll a bit north of the century mark. RosterResource estimated that they finished last year at $123MM. With Woodruff’s new deal on the books, they are projected for $136MM next year.
The roster is already in pretty good shape, considering this is a team that led the majors with 97 wins in 2025. With Woodruff’s return, they haven’t lost any major contributors to free agency. Still, all teams want flexibility to make offseason moves and it’s possible the Brewers are too rigid at the moment. Trading Woodruff isn’t an option as players who accept a QO can’t be dealt without their consent until June 15th.
Even before Woodruff accepted the QO, Peralta was a speculative trade candidate. That’s because the Brewers have a history of trading their best players before they become free agents. Recent examples include Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams. Peralta is slated for free agency after 2026. However, the Brewers don’t always go down that road. They held Willy Adames until he became a free agent, for instance. Peralta is only owed $8MM next year, so it’s not like trading him could lead to massive cost savings.
But that $8MM figure would at least get the Brewers closer to last year’s payroll. On top of that, Peralta has enough value to bring back usable players to upgrade other parts of the roster. Arguably, Peralta is not as good as Burnes was when the latter was dealt. However, Burnes was going to make almost twice as much in his final year before free agency. He and the Brewers agreed to a salary just north of $15.6MM before he was traded to the Orioles. The financial difference could lead to Peralta having roughly the same trade value now as Burnes did at that time.
Flipping Burnes to Baltimore allowed the Brewers to receive Joey Ortiz, DL Hall and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick. Ortiz and Hall were borderline top 100 prospects at the time and both had already reached the majors. It’s therefore possible to imagine the Brewers looking to flip Peralta to save a bit of money while also simultaneously allowing them to address other parts of the roster without having to spend on free agents.
In that scenario, the Brewers could theoretically still have a good rotation, even without Peralta. If healthy, it would be fronted by Woodruff. It’s possible that Jacob Misiorowski takes a step forward and becomes a front-of-rotation guy. Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, Tobias Myers and others would be in the mix as well.
For what it’s worth, Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and president of baseball operations Matt Arnold both downplayed the idea that Woodruff’s signing would lead to a Peralta trade. Per Sammon and Rosenthal last week, both Attanasio and Arnold said the two things were “independent decisions” and expressed excitement about the rotation with Woodruff in it. Of course, if the Brewers were thinking about trading Peralta, it wouldn’t help their leverage to publicly admit it.
If Peralta is out there, it’s possible that the Brewers could benefit from the market conditions. It was generally expected that Joe Ryan and Pablo López would be available this winter but Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey downplayed the idea earlier this month. The Marlins were also expected to make Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera available but the Fish reportedly need to add payroll rather than subtract. Sonny Gray has already been traded to the Red Sox and one prominent free agent has already come off the board with the Blue Jays agreeing to a deal with Dylan Cease. There are still some good arms out there but Peralta is far cheaper than the best free agents, which could make him attractive to big spenders and lower-payroll clubs alike.
Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images
Mariners To Re-Sign Casey Lawrence To Minor League Deal
The Mariners and right-hander Casey Lawrence have reunited on a minor league deal, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. Presumably, the veteran righty will also receive an invite to big league camp in spring training.
Lawrence, 38, has been in the game for well over a decade now but has never been much more than a depth arm. He has appeared in five different big league seasons but has appeared in just 65 games with a 6.42 earned run average.
He and the Mariners have a relationship that seems to work for both parties. He bounced on and off the Seattle roster throughout the 2025 season, getting added whenever the club needed a fresh arm to absorb some innings and spare the rest of the staff. Since he is out of options, he would then be designated for assignment. One time, he was claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays and was with that club briefly. But for the most part, he would clear waivers, elect free agency and then sign a new minor league deal with the M’s.
By the end of the year, he had been designated for assignment six times, once by the Jays and five times by the Mariners. Around all those transactions, he tossed 17 2/3 innings over six appearances with a 4.08 ERA.
It would be understandable to feel that Lawrence was getting jerked around but it seems he understood the situation, given his career trajectory. “I think I’m used to kind of the movement of it,” Lawrence said to Tim Booth of The Seattle Times in April. “And I think it’s one of those things where you understand your role in the team and you’re willing to do whatever is going to help the team. Right now, it’s kind of doing this.”
Lawrence never got enough big league time to qualify for arbitration, so his career earnings are surely less than many of his peers. By accepting this role late in his career, he can at least bank some sporadic hits of major league salary before he hangs up his spikes. He told Booth that he plans to get into a player development or front office role but he wants to keep playing while he still can.
The Mariners have a strong rotation consisting of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller. They have Logan Evans and others as depth options. Prospect Jurrangelo Cijntje could be in Triple-A at some point in 2026. Lawrence will likely be used for emergency mop up work for situations where the staff is gassed due to injuries or playing a series of extra innings games in short succession.
Photo courtesy of Steven Bisig, Imagn Images
Red Sox Interested In Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto
The Red Sox are looking to bolster the lineup. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Sox are considering signing one or maybe two of Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto, J.T. Realmuto and Alex Bregman. MLBTR covered the club’s interest in Schwarber and Realmuto earlier this month. Bregman was with the Sox in 2025 and team employees often complimented him for his skills and leadership abilities, so it’s unsurprising that they would want him back.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow admitted earlier this month that the Sox would be looking for front-of-the-rotation starter and a middle-of-the-order bat this winter. While some Boston fans weren’t thrilled with the move, the Sox feel they ticked off the first box by acquiring Sonny Gray from the Cardinals this week. After the Gray trade, it was reported that the Sox would be shifting their focus to the lineup.
There are certain spots on the field where it’s easier for the Sox to add. They appear to be set in the outfield, so much so that a trade to clear out some space feels inevitable. Masataka Yoshida is perhaps slated to be something like an everyday designated hitter at the moment, though it’s possible a trade of him or another outfielder will open that spot a bit more. On the infield, Trevor Story is going to be back at shortstop.
The infield corners are more open. With Bregman opting out of his deal, third base is free. The Sox could fill that spot internally with Marcelo Mayer but he could also take over at second base. Triston Casas is a possibility at first but the Sox likely don’t want to rely on him after a 2025 wherein he struggled before suffering a season-ending knee injury.
Alonso is one of the better power bats in the league. He has been good for about 40 homers per full season, give or take a few, throughout his career. He just hit 38 bombs this year. His 8.6% walk rate was a career low but his .272 batting average a career high. Put it all together and he slashed .272/.347/.524 for a 141 wRC+, the eighth-best wRC+ tally among qualified hitters in the majors this year.
Despite his skills with the bat, his market is unclear. He’s not a great defender and he’s not a burner on the basepaths. He was a free agent a year ago, coming off a lesser platform season, and didn’t find the long-term deal he was looking for. He returned to the Mets on a two-year, $54MM deal with an opt-out halfway through.
After putting together a better season at the plate, he opted out to take another crack at finding that elusive long-term deal. He is reportedly hoping to get a seven-year commitment this winter. That’s an ambitious ask for a guy who is about to turn 31 and isn’t known for his athleticism, though he is apparently willing to spend more time as a DH going forward. MLBTR predicted him for a four-year, $110MM deal.
Alonso would undoubtedly add some thump to the Boston lineup. The fact that he hits right-handed should also be attractive, since the current group skews to the left side. The question will be if they can line up on a price. There’s still belief in some circles that the Mets and Alonso could reunite again, though he presumably has interest from plenty of other clubs as well, in addition to the Red Sox.
RosterResource estimates the Sox currently have a competitive balance tax number of $223MM, a little more than $20MM below next year’s $244MM base threshold. They have been willing to occasionally pax the tax in recent years. It appears they went a bit over the line in 2025. Perhaps reaching the postseason and developing a young core will convince ownership to push spending a bit higher in 2026.
Okamoto would be more of a wild card since he doesn’t yet have major league experience, but he’s also plenty interesting. From 2018 to 2024, he hit at least 27 home runs in each season for the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. In 2025, he was limited by injuries to just 69 games but had his best performance on a rate basis. He hit 15 homers in that time and slashed .327/.416/.598 for a 210 wRC+.
Defensively, he has primarily been a third baseman in Japan but has also spent a decent amount of time at first with brief stints in left field. Some scouts believe he can handle third base in the big leagues for a while but others feel he would be better off at first. He’s currently 29 years old and will turn 30 at the end of June. Like Alonso, he swings from the right side and would be a good fit for the lefty-heavy lineup.
There’s always a risk that a wild card player like this won’t be able to adjust to the major leagues as hoped. This is something that Boston fans know well, having watched Yoshida struggle lately. But Okamoto has plenty of appeal. MLBTR predicted he could land a four-year, $64MM deal, which doesn’t include the posting fee which would be owed to the Giants. He has already been connected to the Pirates but should have lots of other suitors as well.
If the Sox end up adding a player who projects to spend a lot of time at first, it would presumably increase the chances of Casas ending up on the trade block. He has already been in plenty of trade rumors over the years. As mentioned, the DH spot is already a bit crowded, so it would be hard for Casas and someone like Alonso to co-exist on the same roster.
Casas still has options and could technically be sent to the minors but he’s overqualified to be a depth piece. From 2022 to 2024, he hit 42 home runs in 840 plate appearances. His 26.9% strikeout rate was a bit high but he drew walks at an excellent 14.2% pace. Overall, he hit .250/.357/.473 for a 127 wRC+. His 2025 saw him put up a dismal .182/.277/.303 line but that was in a tiny sample of 112 plate appearances and with a .217 batting average on balls in play. His walk rate had dropped to 9.8% but he also improved his strikeout rate to 24.1%.
It would be understandable if the Sox don’t want to bank on Casas after those struggles and the surgery to address the ruptured patellar tendon in his left knee. But if they replace him with a more reliable option like Alonso, then it would make sense to flip Casas for pitching or some other upgrade. He is still controllable for three seasons and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $1.7MM salary next year. MLBTR listed Casas 24th on our list of the Top 40 Trade Candidates at the start of the season.
Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images
Angels, Anthony Rendon Discussing Contract Buyout With Rendon Expected To Retire
The Angels and third baseman Anthony Rendon are discussing a buyout plan with Rendon expected to retire, reports Alden González of ESPN. Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM deal still has one year and $38MM remaining.
Rendon’s deal has been a punchline for a long time now and will certainly go down as one of the biggest busts of this era, perhaps even of all time. The Angels have gotten almost no return on their massive investment. Rendon was still a very good player in the first year of the pact, but that happened to be the 202o season, which was shortened to just 60 games on account of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, Rendon has been largely injured. Even when he has been able to take the field, he hasn’t been terribly useful.
When the deal was signed, Rendon was coming off an excellent stretch with the Nationals. From 2013 to 2019, he slashed .290/.369/.490 for a wRC+ of 128. He dabbled at second base but mostly provided strong defense at third. He had a well-timed career year in 2019, though that year would later become infamous for its juiced balls. His 34 home runs were a career high. He slashed .319/.412/.598 for a wRC+ of 155. He hit .328/.413/.590 in the postseason, helping the Nats win their first ever World Series title.
It was then that the Rendon headed to California. As mentioned, he was still quite good in his first season as an Angel. He played in 52 of the club’s 60 games, hitting nine home runs. His 16.4% walk rate was a few ticks higher than his 13.4% strikeout rate. He hit .286/.418/.497 for a 152 wRC+. FanGraphs credited him with 2.5 wins above replacement in that truncated campaign.
But in the five seasons since, mounting injuries have prevented from doing much of anything. From 2021 to 2024, he finished each season with between 43 and 58 appearances. He had stints on the injured list due to a left groin strain, a left knee contusion, a left hamstring strain, a right hip impingement, right wrist inflammation, right wrist surgery, another left groin strain, a left wrist contusion, a left shin contusion, a left hip impingement, a left hamstring strain, low back inflammation and a left oblique strain. He hit .231/.329/.336 for an 89 wRC+ over those seasons. In February of 2025, he underwent left hip surgery and eventually missed the entire season.
A lengthy injury history may be out of a player’s control but Rendon has been followed by questions about his attitude and commitment. Back in 2014, he said he doesn’t watch baseball because it’s “too long and boring,” per Jason Butt of The Washington Post. In 2022, he got a five-game suspension for getting involved in a brawl with the Mariners, even though he was on the IL recovering from wrist surgery at the time. Early in the 2023 season, he received another suspension for an altercation with an Athletics fan, which was caught on video. Rendon grabbed the fan’s shirt, cursed at him and swiped at him. In January of 2024, on the Jack Vita Show, he said the baseball season was too long and needed to be shortened.
Shortly thereafter, as rounded up by Sam Blum of The Athletic, Rendon was asked about these concerns. “It’s never been a top priority for me,” Rendon said of baseball. “This is a job. I do this to make a living. My faith, my family come first before this job.” He seemed to take umbrage with reporters for continuing to question him on the subject. “I have answered your question,” he said. “So why do keep picking at it?”
The combination of Rendon’s contract, his injury absences and his reputation have made him a frequent target for criticism from fans. The money owed to him has also been an obvious obstacle for the Angels, who have had a decent chunk of their payroll tied up in one rarely-available player. Despite having Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Rendon on the roster for many years, the Angels haven’t been a serious contender in a long time.
If some kind of buyout arrangement can be worked out, it could work for both sides. Rendon could walk away from the game after years of injuries, including a 2025 lost to hip surgery, as opposed to trying to get back into game shape. The Angels could open up some more payroll flexibility for the 2026 season.
As it currently stands, RosterResource has them slated for a $166MM payroll, with Rendon taking up almost a quarter of that. They are looking to bolster the pitching staff and their lineup ahead of next season. Speculatively speaking, a plan could perhaps be worked out which defers Rendon’s 2026 salary so he gets paid in the long run but the Angels have more near-term ability to spend on other players. Time will tell how the chips fall on that.
Assuming Rendon doesn’t play another major league game, he will retire with 5,022 plate appearances over 1,173 games. He notched 1,218 hits, including 295 doubles, 16 triples and 158 home runs. He scored 683 runs, drove in 671 and stole 55 bases. FanGraphs credits him with 33.8 wins above replacement and Baseball Reference 34.2. MLBTR salutes him on his accomplishments and wishes him the best in his non-baseball life.
Photo courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, Tommy Gilligan, Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images
Marlins, Eury Pérez Had Extension Discussions In The Spring
The Marlins and right-hander Eury Pérez discussed an extension earlier this year, according to reporting from Will Sammon, Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic. However, they didn’t come close to getting something done. These talks occurred when the team approached the righty’s representatives in the spring and the two sides were about $15MM apart, according to Isaac Azout of Fish on First. Both Azout and Christina De Nicola of MLB.com say that the talks are expected to continue this offseason.
It’s the second time this week that reports have emerged of the Marlins trying to extend one of their young players. Earlier this week, it was reported that they recently had some talks with outfielder Kyle Stowers. The Fish were even farther from a deal with Stowers, with a reported $50MM gap in those talks.
The situations have a few things in common but are also wildly different. Both players have between two and three years of service time, meaning each is a year from qualifying for arbitration and four years from free agency. However, they are far apart in age. Stowers is going into his age-28 season and therefore won’t be a free agent until he’s going into his age-32 campaign. Pérez is only 22 years old right now, turning 23 in April. He is therefore slated for the open market after his age-26 campaign.
That’s a reflection of his quick rise to the majors. Pérez shot through the minors and was in the big leagues by his age-20 season. Despite his youth, he was immediately successful. He tossed 91 1/3 innings that year with a 3.15 earned run average. His 8.3% walk rate was around average while he punched out a strong 28.9% of batters faced.
He missed the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Since the Marlins approached him about an extension in the spring, he was still recovering at that time and had fewer than 100 innings under his belt. He was able to get back on the mound in June and finished the year with 95 1/3 innings, a 4.25 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate.
Pérez is still fairly inexperienced, with under 200 big league innings to his name so far. However, he was confident enough to turn down extension overtures a year ago while still on the mend. Now he’s a year closer to free agency and has returned to health.
It’s quite rare for a player to be on track to hit free agency so young. When it does happen, teams have shown a strong willingness to pay for that youth. Back in the 2018-19 offseason, both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado reached free agency ahead of their age-26 seasons, with each hitting the $300MM plateau on their free agent deals. More recently, Juan Soto hit free agency at the same age and blew those two out of the water. His $765MM deal was more than Harper and Machado combined. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was also able to get a $325MM guarantee ahead of his age-25 season, despite having no MLB experience. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a $500MM extension with the Blue Jays just a few months before he was about to become a free ahead ahead of his age-27 campaign. Rafael Devers got to $313.5MM under similar circumstances to Guerrero, two years earlier.
For players in their early 20s, teams have made massive commitments to position players. Players like Fernando Tatis Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt Jr. all got at least $210MM guarantees in their pre-arbitration years. The same can’t be said for pitchers. Spencer Strider currently holds the record for a pre-arb pitcher with his six-year, $75MM deal. Like all players, getting closer to free agency will increase his earning power. Arms such as Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Garrett Crochet, José Berríos, Jacob deGrom, Luis Castillo and Homer Bailey have signed nine-figure deals in their arb years. Dozens of guys have been able to crack nine figures after reaching the open market.
If Pérez bets on himself, he could keep increasing his earning power, but that would also run the risk of him getting hurt or simply struggling to put up good numbers. Since he’s so young, perhaps there’s a nice middle ground where he can bank some early earnings while still having a good path to free agency. For example, he could sign away two years of club control and still become a free agent ahead of his age-29 season.
For the Marlins, they had an encouraging finish in 2025. They were 23-33 at the end of May but went 56-50 the rest of the way and narrowly missed the playoffs. They have almost no money on the books. Sandy Alcantara is signed through 2026 with a club option for 2027. That’s literally it for now, though they have tendered contracts to seven arb-eligible players. Even though the Marlins don’t have huge payrolls, they have lots of room for long-term deals if they want to lock up a few core players.
That will also help them with their reported desire to increase their competitive balance tax number in 2026. The idea would be to pre-emptively stave off drama when the collective bargaining agreement expires next offseason. If the Marlins spend a bit more next year, it could reduce the chances that the MLB Players Association or other owners take umbrage with how the Fish are using their revenue sharing money.
The Athletics were in a similar position last winter and ended up getting more aggressive than in previous years. They gave notable free agent deals to Luis Severino and José Leclerc and signed extensions with Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler. Extensions are quite good for bumping up the CBT since that number calculates contracts based on the average annual value of the whole deal. For instance, Alcantara’s $56MM extension over five years gave him an $11.2MM CBT hit for every season of that deal, even though he was paid far less than that in the first three years. He made $3.5MM in 2022, followed by $6MM and $9MM in the two subsequent seasons.
Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images
MLBTR Podcast: Some “Classic Baseball Trades,” Nimmo For Semien, And Ward For Rodriguez
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Rangers trading Marcus Semien to the Mets for Brandon Nimmo and cash (1:25)
- The Orioles trading Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for Taylor Ward (20:05)
- The Mariners re-signing Josh Naylor to a five-year deal (31:20)
- The Braves acquiring Mauricio Dubón from the Astros for Nick Allen (40:50)
- Four different guys accepting a qualifying offer (52:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- Offseason Preview Megapod: Top 50 Free Agents – listen here
- Surprising Option Decisions, Qualifying Offers, And Paul DePodesta – listen here
- Offseason Preview Megapod: Top Trade Candidates – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images