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Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Kevin Plawecki

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The Red Sox announced that catcher Kevin Plawecki has agreed to a new contract for the 2022 season, thus avoiding salary arbitration.  The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports that Plawecki signed for $2.25MM, which tops MLBTR’s projected for a $2MM salary in Plawecki’s final year of arb eligibility.

Entering his third season as Boston’s backup catcher, Plawecki has hit .305/.364/.414 over 262 plate appearances with the Red Sox, an unexpectedly big step up from the .636 OPS he posted over his first 978 PA and five Major League seasons with the Mets and Guardians.  While Plawecki hit better than 2020 than in 2021, his bat helped prop up production from Boston’s catching position last season in the wake of a down year from starter Christian Vazquez.  Baseball Prospectus’ numbers rate Plawecki’s defense as pretty average across the board, while Fangraphs’ catching metrics give him -4 Defensive Runs Saved over his two years with the Sox.

Ryan Brasier also agreed to a deal with the Red Sox yesterday, so Boston has six players remaining (Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe, Nick Pivetta, Alex Verdugo, Christian Arroyo, and Josh Taylor) left on its list of arbitration eligibles.

Braves, Rangers Interested In Matt Olson

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As the Athletics prepare to reduce their payroll, first baseman Matt Olson stands out as an obvious and popular trade chip, even if Oakland naturally is asking for quite a bit in return for the All-Star.  The Braves are among the teams who have “checked in” with the A’s about Olson, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports, while Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News writes that the Rangers “have already begun investigating what it would take to get Olson.”

Atlanta’s interest in Olson is obviously viewed through the lens of the Freddie Freeman market, as there seems to be some level of increased chatter that Freeman might depart the Braves after 12 seasons, as the two sides have yet to agree on the length and dollar value of a new contract.  As Heyman notes, there is a general feeling that Freeman will ultimately wind up re-signing, but if not, Olson could be the Braves’ “contingency plan” if they have a sudden vacancy to fill at first base.

For the Rangers, adding Olson would be only the latest move for a club that has been one of the biggest stories of the free agent season.  Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Jon Gray, and Kole Calhoun have already been signed on the open market, though prying Olson away from the A’s would now carry a different cost for Texas in terms of younger talent.  While the A’s and Rangers have lined up on some very notable trades in recent years, it is possible Oakland might command a particular premium from Texas (or any other AL West suitor) to move Olson within the division.

One of baseball’s top all-around first basemen, Olson has won two Gold Gloves to go along with his big power numbers, and he is only entering his age-28 season.  Olson is also controlled via arbitration over the next two seasons, and while his $12MM projection for 2022 isn’t exactly light, it is still more than reasonable for a player of his caliber.

For the Braves, this salary would surely be a smoother fit in the long-term payroll plans than giving Freeman something in the realm of $160MM+ throughout his 30’s.  President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has said that the club’s payroll will rise in the wake of their World Series triumph, though a mega-deal for Freeman could itself take up all of that increase.  Anthopoulos has scored big on the free agent market during his time in Atlanta, though mostly on short-term contracts — if Freeman leaves and the asking price for Olson isn’t palatable, it is easy to see the Braves pivoting to a shorter-term first base option that wouldn’t cost a ton in either free agent dollars or prospect capital.

It’s safe to say that payroll isn’t quite as big a concern with the Rangers, given what they’re already invested in roster upgrades.  By that token, the Rangers might prefer to continue spending to address any needs rather than deal from their prospect base, though Grant observes that such middle-infield prospects as Justin Foscue, Davis Wendzel, Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith could now be trade candidates in the wake of the Seager/Semien additions.  Texas also has a good first base option already on hand in Nathaniel Lowe, yet Lowe (who is controlled through 2026) would also seem like the kind of trade chip that the Athletics would seek out as an Olson replacement at first base.

Blue Jays Release Breyvic Valera

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The Blue Jays announced yesterday that infielder Breyvic Valera has been released.  Valera will be joining another league overseas (hat tip to Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae).

The Jays acquired Valera in a waiver claim off the Yankees’ roster in September 2019, only for the Padres to claim him away in February 2020 before Toronto re-claimed him in July of that year.  Valera spent the 2020 season on the restricted list due to travel difficulties in leaving his native Venezuela during the midst of the pandemic, but he made it back this past year and appeared in 39 games.

Valera (who turns 30 in January) hit .253/.313/.356 over 97 plate appearances in 2021, which marked his fourth season of MLB action.  Over 235 PA with the Blue Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Cardinals, the well-traveled infielder has a career slash line of .236/.302/.322, though he has hit considerably better in the minors, batting .303/.377/.443 over 1730 PA at Triple-A.

Known more for his versatility than his bat, Valera has played mostly at second base and third base as a big leaguer, but has played everywhere but catcher and pitcher during his minor league career.  It is quite possible Valera could turn up again in North American baseball, though he’ll find more opportunity and regular playing time in a foreign league than he would battling several other free agents for minor league deals heading into the 2022 Major League season.

Rangers Sign Jon Gray

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The Rangers continue their offseason spending spree, announcing agreement Wednesday on a four-year contract with right-hander Jon Gray. It’s reportedly a $56MM guarantee for the CAA Sports client. Gray will make $15MM apiece over the next two seasons, followed by successive $13MM salaries in 2024-25 on the front-loaded deal.

After signing Marcus Semien to a huge seven-year, $175MM deal and then adding Kole Calhoun to the outfield on another free agent deal, Texas has now addressed its pitching staff with another veteran addition.  The Rangers emerged as a suitor for Gray a few days ago, and they beat out the division rival Angels, as well as the Tigers and Mets as teams known to have interest in signing the 30-year-old.

Jon Gray verticalThe four-year, $56MM pact exactly matches MLBTR’s projection for Gray, who ranked 19th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.  The Rangers’ offer was also north of the three-year extension offer the Rockies reportedly made Gray prior to the end of the season, which was said to be somewhere around $35-$40MM in value.  While Gray only got a bit more extra in average annual value, he’ll also gain an extra year of security, and also now get to pitch in a more hurler-friendly venue than Coors Field.

The third overall pick of the 2013 draft, Gray has spent his entire MLB career with Coors Field as his home ballpark, and for the most part has acquitted himself a lot better than most at the notoriously hitter-friendly stadium.  Gray has a career 4.54 ERA in home games, with that number inflated by some rough outings over the smaller sample size of 45 1/3 innings over the 2015 and 2020 seasons.  While Gray also has a 4.65 ERA over 412 2/3 career innings in road games, several players (both pitchers and hitters) have talked about how playing in Denver’s thin air impacts adjustments throughout an entire season, so it could be that getting out of Coors Field entirely will allow Gray to unlock a new level of performance.

Several rival teams have long speculated that Gray’s stuff would thrive in a more normalized pitching environment, given what he already showed as a Rockie.  Gray has a career 46.7% grounder rate, 23.9% strikeout rate, and 7.9% walk rate over his career, all above-average metrics.  The righty’s fastball that has averaged 95.2 mph over his career, and that high-velo heater is augmented by an above-average spin rate on his curveball.

Focusing on Gray’s positives while attributing his negatives only to Coors Field isn’t wise, however, as there are some concerns about whether or not Gray can be a true front-of-the-rotation pitcher.  He has given up quite a bit of hard contact over his career and his fastball (while quick) is lacking in spin rate.  Injuries have also been a factor — Gray tossed only 39 innings in 2020 due to shoulder inflammation, and he missed time this year with a flexor strain and forearm tightness, though those two IL stints only totaled roughly a month.

The Rangers are making a $56MM bet that Gray’s best is yet to come, and it’s a risk the team can afford to take given how much money Texas is reportedly willing to spend on payroll this winter.  Between Gray, Semien, and Calhoun, the Rangers have added $44.2MM in average annual value to next year’s payroll alone, which might represent less than half of the team’s work if they really are prepared to top last year’s mark by $100MM.

Gray immediately becomes the most experienced arm of a Rangers rotation that features Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, Glenn Otto, and A.J. Alexy all in the mix for starting jobs.  Dunning and Hearn seem like the only members of that group who are assured of rotation spots, and while Texas won’t sideline all of its younger arms with veteran, there is certainly still room for another notable addition or two beyond Gray.

Beyond the money, Gray doesn’t cost the Rangers anything further in terms of compensation, as the Rockies didn’t issue Gray a qualifying offer.  While there was some expectation that Gray might have taken the one-year, $18.4MM contract if Colorado had made it, the amount of interest in Gray’s services makes that scenario seem a little unlikely in hindsight.  If Gray had accepted, the Rockies would have still retained a pitcher they had obvious interest in keeping, even if at a higher price point than they would have preferred.  Without the QO involved, however, the Rockies now don’t receive any draft pick compensation for Gray’s departure.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was first to report the Rangers and Gray were closing in on an agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that an agreement had been reached. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the four-year, $56MM guarantee. Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reported the breakdown of terms.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Blue Jays Sign Kevin Gausman

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The Blue Jays have made another big strike in free agency, signing right-hander Kevin Gausman to a five-year, $110MM deal.  As per Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi (Twitter link), Gausman will earn $21MM in each of the next two seasons, $22MM in 2024, and $23MM in 2025 and 2026.  Gausman is represented by Tidal Sports.

The signing represents the end of a rather lengthy courtship, as the Blue Jays’ interest in Gausman dates back to at least the 2019-20 offseason, when the right-hander was coming off a rough season split between the Braves and Reds.  After being non-tendered by Cincinnati, Gausman instead opted to sign with the Giants on a one-year, $9MM deal, and after a very successful 2020 season, he chose to accept the Giants’ $18.9MM qualifying offer to return to San Francisco.  The Jays were one of the teams who floated a multi-year offer Gausman’s way, but he turned down the Jays’ reported three-year offer in the $40MM range to instead try and further bolster his value with another strong year with the Giants.

Kevin GausmanOver two years in San Francisco, Gausman not only bounced back from his tough 2019 numbers, but hit a new plateau of success.  Gausman posted a 3.00 ERA/3.38 SIERA over his 251 2/3 innings as a Giant, with an excellent 30% strikeout rate and a solidly above-average 6.5% walk rate.

While Gausman pitched well over 59 2/3 innings in the shortened 2020 season, he duplicated his performance over a full year in 2021, tossing 192 frames and finishing sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting.  One notable wrinkle between the two years was that Gausman increased the use of his split-finger fastball to a career-high 36.6% in 2021, and Gausman’s splitter became one of the more devastating pitches in any arsenal in baseball.

The 192 innings marked a new career high for Gausman, though he was a solid workhorse while averaging 183 IP per year from 2016-18 with the Orioles and Braves.  It is worth noting that Gausman was much better in the first half (1.73 ERA in 114 2/3 IP) than he was after the All-Star break (4.42 ERA over 77 1/3 IP) last year, yet some regression might have been inevitable given that gaudy 1.73 number.  Gausman was also dealing with hip soreness for much of the year, and it could be that he simply started to wear down as many starters did while getting back to a regular workload following the shorter 2020 season.

The Blue Jays got plenty of looks at Gausman during his Orioles days, but while Gausman was a decent but unspectacular member of Baltimore’s rotation, he will now be expected to replicate his front-of-the-rotation numbers from 2020-21.  Toronto has been focusing on the pitching market for much of the winter, and in landing Gausman, it is possible the club has now its replacement for Robbie Ray, should Ray sign elsewhere in free agency.

MLBTR ranked Gausman fifth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and his contract falls a bit shy of our six-year, $138MM projection.  However, it appears as though Gausman did leave some money on the table to join the Blue Jays, as SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that the Mets offered Gausman a larger deal than Toronto’s five years and $110MM.  The Giants were also known to be making a solid push to retain Gausman, while the Angels, Mariners, and Red Sox all had some degree of interest.  Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe reports that the Sox didn’t offer “anything real” to Gausman during their negotiations.

Gausman (who turns 31 in January) joins Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah as the four locks in the Jays rotation, with former top prospect Nate Pearson favored for the fifth spot, and Ross Stripling and Anthony Kay on hand if Pearson struggles or runs into more injury problems.  Between Gausman’s deal, Berrios’ seven-year/$131MM extension, Ryu signed for two more seasons, and Manoah and Pearson providing lower-cost control as the starters of the future, Toronto has built a solid core of arms that the club hopes can withstand the stiff competition of the AL East.

The Gausman signing could also close the door on the chances of Ray re-signing with the Jays, and Toronto has also lost another starter in Steven Matz, who signed a four-year pact with the Cardinals.  It seems possible that the Blue Jays might yet seek out another lower-cost depth arm to compete with Pearson and company, perhaps looking to strike big on another bounce-back candidate as they did with Ray and Matz last winter.

Since Gausman had already been issued a qualifying offer in his career, he was ineligible to receive another one this time around in free agency, meaning the Blue Jays don’t have to give up any draft picks as compensation for his services.  The Jays have already landed one compensatory pick when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers, and would receive another if Ray signed elsewhere since both Ray and Semien rejected Toronto’s qualifying offers.  With this extra draft capital on hand, the Blue Jays might be more open to now signing a QO free agent of their own, as they were able to land their sought-after rotation upgrade in Gausman without the cost of any picks.

ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter) reported that the Jays and Gausman had reached an agreement.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeted earlier in the day that the two sides were “gaining momentum towards a deal,” and Morosi’s earlier reports suggested that Gausman would land a five-year deal in the $100MM range, with the Jays as a finalist for the right-hander’s services.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Angels Sign Michael Lorenzen

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The Angels announced the signing of right-hander Michael Lorenzen to a one-year contract on Tuesday. It’s reportedly a $6.75MM pact for the CAA Sports client.

After already signing Noah Syndergaard, the Angels will add another notable pitcher to their rotation on a one-year contract, as Lorenzen will reportedly function as a starting pitcher.  Lorenzen went into free agency hoping to get an opportunity to again work as a starter, following six years of almost exclusively being used as a reliever out of the Reds bullpen.  Cincinnati was open to stretching Lorenzen out last spring, before Lorenzen was sidelined with a shoulder strain that put him on the injured list for the entire first half of the season.

Lorenzen (who turns 30 in January) indicated that he was open to signing a shorter-term contract in order to prove himself in a rotation, and thus set himself up for a more lucrative free agent deal next winter when he can market himself as a full-fledged starting pitcher.  For an Angels team that needs starting pitching and is generally wary of long-term commitments to starters, Lorenzen represented a solid fit, and since Lorenzen is also an Anaheim native, he’ll now get to start this new chapter of his career in his hometown.

Anaheim is also a particularly interesting landing spot for considering the presence of Shohei Ohtani, and Lorenzen’s own status as a two-way player.  In addition to working out of the Reds’ bullpen, Lorenzen also appeared in 34 games as an outfielder, with most (29) of those appearances coming during the 2019 season.  Lorezen has hit .233/.282/.429 over his 147 career plate appearances, which is well above average for a pitcher, if unspectacular for a position player.

It is easy to imagine a scenario where Lorenzen continues to get regular work in the rotation and in the outfield, since the Angels know better than any team now to manage a two-way player.  The Halos have already adjusted their rotation to a six-man unit to accommodate Ohtani, and that rotation now consists of Ohtani, Lorenzen, Syndergaard, Jose Suarez, Patrick Sandoval, and one of Reid Detmers or Jaime Barria.

Considering how the Angels have been linked to so many notables on the free agent and trade markets, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see another pitcher acquired, in order to add even more depth to this group.  It remains to be seen, of course, whether Lorenzen can actually thrive as a starter, and Syndergaard is only returning to regular action after Tommy John surgery caused him to miss miss virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons.

If Lorenzen doesn’t work out as a starting pitcher, he can always fall back on relief pitching, which would also provide a boost for the Angels.  There is a big hole at the back of the bullpen since closer Raisel Iglesias may depart in free agency, which is a little ironic considering how Lorenzen spent much of his time in Cincinnati working as Iglesias’ setup man.  Lorenzen posted a 3.48 ERA over 331 innings from 2016-2020, also delivering a 5.59 ERA over 29 frames in 2021, though that performance is hard to gauge given all of Lorenzen’s injury problems.

Lorenzen didn’t fit the usual profile for a reliever, as he delivered below-average strikeout rates and middling walk rates but relied on a lot of soft contact and strong grounder rates to get outs.  Between this skillset and a very good spin rate on his fastball, there is some sense that Lorenzen can translate well to rotation work.  If the experiment doesn’t pan out, Lorenzen can pick up where he left off in the pen, and might well still score a solid multi-year contract next winter if he pitches to his usual standard as a reliever.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Angels were in agreement with Lorenzen on a one-year deal worth around $7MM, and reported Lorenz’s role as a starter. Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reported the guarantee was $6.75MM.

Rangers Sign Kole Calhoun

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The Rangers announced an agreement with veteran outfielder Kole Calhoun on Tuesday. It’s reportedly a one-year, $5.2MM guarantee that comes with a $5.5MM club option for 2023. The option doesn’t contain a buyout. Calhoun is represented by PSI Sports Management.

Calhoun hit the open market after the Diamondbacks declined their $9MM club option following the season, instead paying him a $2MM buyout.  Calhoun originally signed a two-year, $16MM deal with Arizona in the 2019-20 offseason and hit a strong .226/.338/.526 with 16 home runs over 228 plate appearances in 2020 before battling injuries this past year.  Calhoun underwent surgeries on both his right knee and left hamstring, with that hamstring leading to another injured list stint late in the 2021 season.  All told, Calhoun had only 182 PA in 2021, and he batted just .235/.297/.373.

The 34-year-old will now get a chance to bounce back in Arlington, returning to the AL West after playing with the Angels from 2012-19.  Calhoun has long been a very solid defensive right fielder, and since breakout star Adolis Garcia acquitted himself pretty well defensively in part-time action in center field last year, Texas might opt to give Garcia more time in center with Calhoun taking over the bulk of right field duty.

Considering how Calhoun struggled in 2021, however, the Rangers might well see Calhoun as more of a part-time or platoon option rather than an everyday regular in the outfield.  Since Texas clearly has some major spending in mind this winter (as evidenced by today’s agreement with Marcus Semien), we also shouldn’t rule out more additions to the outfield mix.  For now, at least, Calhoun will join Garcia as a starter in the 2022 outfield.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report the Rangers were in agreement with Calhoun. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported it was a one-year, $5.2MM guarantee and contained a 2023 club option. Levi Weaver of the Athletic reported the option was valued at $5.5MM and didn’t contain a buyout figure.

Mets In Serious Talks With Max Scherzer

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10:48am: Martino tweets that an agreement between the two parties again appears close.

9:50am: Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets’ offer to Scherzer is in the three-year, $129MM range. Sherman suggested earlier this morning that the Mets had the top offer and the Dodgers seemed reluctant to go beyond two years (Twitter thread).

Nov. 29, 9:33am: The Mets and Scherzer’s camp have “re-engaged” after some brief downtime overnight, Martino tweets. Martino suggests that talks could be nearing the finish line.

Nov. 28: The Mets are nearing a multi-year contract with Max Scherzer, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (Twitter link).  Based on multiple reports from earlier tonight, Scherzer may be on the verge of signing the largest average annual value contract in baseball history.  SNY’s Andy Martino reported earlier tonight that the Mets were prepared to go beyond $40MM in annual salary, and in Martino’s latest tweet, he writes that New York is offering Scherzer a $42MM AAV over either three or four years.  Scherzer is represented by the Boras Corporation.

The news puts an exclamation point on a pitching search that has thus far been fruitless for the Mets, as targets such as Kevin Gausman, Jon Gray, Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz have all come off the board.  Matz’s deal with the Cardinals even drew some public ire from Mets owner Steve Cohen on Twitter, who accused agent Rob Martin of “unprofessional behavior” in their negotiations.

Those near-misses now fade into the background in the wake of what might be a precedent-setting contract with one of the best pitchers in baseball history.  Scherzer was seen as more likely to sign with a team on the West Coast, as per his preferences when leveraging his no-trade clause to join the Dodgers back at the trade deadline.  As such, teams like the Dodgers, Angels, and Giants were known to be in the hunt for the 37-year-old ace, but instead, Scherzer now seems poised to return to both the East Coast and the NL East itself, after six-plus seasons with the Nationals.

While Scherzer was already a highly accomplished pitcher before he went to Washington, he rose to legendary status after signing his seven-year, $210MM free agent pact with the Nats in the 2014-15 offseason.  Scherzer’s stint in D.C. included two NL Cy Young Awards (to go with his 2013 AL Cy with the Tigers), two no-hitters, a 20-strikeout game, a 2.80 ERA over 1229 innings, and the crowning achievement of the Nationals’ 2019 World Series championship.  All told, a strong case can be made that Scherzer’s deal is the best mega-deal in the history of free agency.

Once the Nationals fell out of contention this summer, Scherzer and Trea Turner were dealt to Los Angeles in a blockbuster swap, and Scherzer continued to pitch well in leading the Dodgers to the NLCS.  The Dodgers were still considered as the favorites to re-sign Scherzer up until just earlier this evening, as the Dodgers’ deep pockets gave them the flexibility to consider the type of huge AAV required to meet Scherzer’s asking price.  MLB Trade Rumors indeed projected Scherzer to set a new AAV standard, predicting him to a land a three-year, $120MM pact to remain in Dodger blue.

Twins, Tigers, Giants Interested In Robbie Ray

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As free agent pitchers continue to fly off the board, AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray remains unsigned, though he is still drawing plenty of attention.  The Angels, Red Sox, and Blue Jays have been previously linked to Ray on the rumor mill, and The New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link) also lists the Twins, Tigers, and Giants as among the clubs with interest in the left-hander.  In addition, Sherman says to “keep an eye” on the Rangers, which isn’t surprising given how much Texas has already splurged on free agent talent, including another top pitcher in Jon Gray.

Of the new teams in the hunt for Ray, it isn’t surprising to see Detroit and San Francisco listed, as both clubs have already been looking for pitching and been aggressive with some early signings.  The Tigers agreed to sign Eduardo Rodriguez for five years and $77MM, while the Giants re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and were reportedly close to also retaining another familiar face in Alex Wood.

While Ray would obviously be a huge help to either team, the argument can be made that San Francisco has the bigger need.  Just about all of the Giants’ 2021 rotation was eligible for free agency, and leaving plenty of holes to be filled around Logan Webb.  DeSclafani’s return filled one gap and Wood would fill another if he also re-signed, though Kevin Gausman left the Giants to instead sign a five-year, $110MM deal with the Blue Jays.  If there is a silver lining to Gausman’s departure, it could be that Toronto would seemingly be less likely to re-sign Ray, removing some competition from the Giants’ pursuit.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have a somewhat fuller rotation in E-Rod, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal all lined up for starting jobs, though the latter trio are is long on promise but still short on experience at the Major League level.  Adding a proven veteran star like Ray makes that rotation much stronger, and also provides a full-circle moment since Ray formerly pitched for the Tigers during his 2014 rookie season.  Detroit acquired Ray from the Nationals for Doug Fister in December 2013, and then flipped him to the Diamondbacks a year later as part of a three-team swap with the Yankees.

Perhaps the bigger obstacle for a Motor City reunion might be the draft pick compensation attached to Ray for rejecting the Jays’ qualifying offer, as Detroit already gave up a pick to sign Rodriguez (who also rejected a QO from the Red Sox).  As a club who received revenue sharing in 2021, the Tigers’ penalty for Rodriguez was the loss of their third-highest selection, which will be either their second-round pick or their Competitive Balance Round pick, depending on which of the two CBRs the Tigers are drawn into this winter.

If the Tigers signed another QO-rejecting free agent like Ray, the Tigers would lose their fourth-highest selection in the 2022 draft.  Since Detroit still seems to be considering Ray, it would appear that losing two draft picks isn’t out of the question for the club.  The presence of the extra CBR selection does help ease the pain, and the Tigers have obviously built up a sturdy amount of young talent through their years of rebuilding.

Likewise, the Giants would also have to give up a draft pick for Ray.  Since San Francisco isn’t a revenue-sharing team and they didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021, the Giants would lose their second-highest pick and $500K from their international draft pool if they signed Ray or any other QO free agents.  San Francisco issued a qualifying offer to one of its own free agents this winter, though Brandon Belt ended up accepting the one-year deal to return to the team.

Minnesota is perhaps the most interesting of the new teams in the mix.  Like the Tigers, the Twins are a revenue-sharing recipient and also the holder of a Competitive Balance Round pick, which could mitigate the draft capital they’d lose to sign Ray.  The Twins also have a strong need for front-of-the-rotation pitching, since Jose Berrios was dealt last summer, Michael Pineda is a free agent, and Kenta Maeda will very likely miss the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Despite these factors, signing Ray to something close to five years and $130MM (MLBTR’s projection for the lefty’s next deal) would represent the second-largest contract in the Twins’ franchise history, and the type of financial outlay that Minnesota has traditionally preferred to avoid.  However, the Twins have been open to larger spending in other free agent pursuits in recent years, and swung such a notable deal with Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM pact in the 2019-20 offseason.  Additionally, Minnesota just hit the nine-figure threshold by inking Byron Buxton to a seven-year extension that will be worth at least $100MM and perhaps significantly more if Buxton hits various incentive clauses.

Spending roughly $26MM on Ray in average annual value would boost the Twins’ 2022 payroll to around the $119MM mark, but considering the club finished the 2018 campaign spending around $131MM in player salaries, Minnesota would still have room to make other additions.  Plus, Miguel Sano, Taylor Rogers, and Tyler Duffey aren’t guaranteed beyond 2022, and Buxton and Randy Dobnak are the only Twins players on the books beyond the 2023 season.

Report: “Belief” That Corey Seager Will Sign Monday

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Free agent shortstop Corey Seager could be nearing his next contract, as The New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports that there is a “belief” that Seager will sign on Monday.  Seager was known to be leaning towards finding a new team before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1, and interestingly, that same report indicated the same about another prominent Scott Boras client in Marcus Semien.

Just earlier today, Semien indeed did sign, inking a seven-year, $175MM agreement with the Rangers.  Seager had also engaged in some talks with the Rangers, and both Sherman and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal feel there is a distinct chance Seager may still land in Texas.  Presumably, Seager and Semien would work as the Rangers’ new middle infield combination, though it would remain to be seen exactly where either of the duo would line up.

Seager has spent virtually all of his career at shortstop but his defensive numbers aren’t great, and there is a perception that Seager might be within a few years of moving to third base or perhaps even second base.  Semien, meanwhile, is the better defensive shortstop of the two, though Semien spent 2021 playing as a second baseman with the Blue Jays while Bo Bichette manned the shortstop position.  Texas also has some incumbents to consider, as top third base prospect Josh Jung is ready for his MLB debut, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa is an excellent defender at either shortstop or third base.

The fact that the Rangers can now even weigh all of these possibilities is indicative of the new doors opened by the team’s willingness to spend big this winter, as the Rangers are making a sharp turn towards contention after five straight losing seasons.  Texas has already signed Semien, Jon Gray, and Kole Calhoun within the last 12 hours, so adding Seager would be just the latest addition to what has already been a frenzy of activity for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels.

Trevor Story is another one of the major free agent shortstops who had been linked to the Rangers, and Rosenthal seems to frame Story as something of a backup plan, noting that Story is “also possible if Rangers cannot get Seager.”  The fact that Boras represents both Semien and Seager could make coordinating such a double-signing easier, though it isn’t as if Daniels and company have never had dealings with Story’s reps at Excel (Kolby Allard is an Excel client on the Texas roster, for instance).

While Boras has a reputation for waiting until deep into the offseason to find acceptable contracts for his free agent clients, Sherman notes that at the GM Meetings in early November, teams felt Boras would have deals lined up for Seager, Semien, and Max Scherzer before December 1 and what is expected to be a management lockout following the CBA’s expiration.  Beyond Semien’s deal, Scherzer also seems to be nearing an agreement with the Mets, which perhaps increases the chances that Seager will also get his contract done in short order.

Beyond the Rangers, the Tigers, Dodgers, and Yankees are other teams who have been linked to Seager’s market, though New York is reportedly planning to wait until after the lockout and subsequent transactions freeze to pursue a shortstop, as the club would prefer a shorter-term commitment.  If Scherzer does sign with the Mets, it could spur the Dodgers to make a bigger push for Seager so as to not lose both of their biggest in-house free agents.  Semien’s departure from the market could also spur any of the teams also looking for shortstop or general infield help (such as the Phillies, Blue Jays, or Angels) to look closer at Seager.

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