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Big Hype Prospects: Abbott, Brown, Encarnacion-Strand, Povich, Sheehan

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With so many clubs needing to plunge into the minors for pitching reinforcements, let’s put more attention on this next wave of arms.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Andrew Abbott, 24, SP, CIN (AAA)
31.1 IP, 13.21 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 3.16 ERA

Abbott walked all over the Southern League earlier this season, posting a 1.15 ERA with 20.68 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9 in three starts. The Reds got him out of there in a hurry – possibly because the pre-tacked ball used in that league was obscuring aspects of his development. Since arriving in Triple-A, Abbott has reverted to a good-not-great trajectory and there’s still risk he’ll eventually land in the bullpen. From a stuff perspective, he has a starter’s repertoire. Like most young pitchers, Abbott’s command can be inconsistent and mostly draws negative comments. There’s reason for concern about home run prevention, especially at Great American Ball Park.

Ben Brown, 23, SP, CHC (AAA)
24 IP, 13.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.75 ERA

Brown was acquired from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. Like Abbott, Brown dominated the Southen League (20 IP, 0.45 ERA) en route to a quick promotion. He’s continued to miss bats, albeit with a couple red flags. Per a statistical source, hitters have averaged a 91.3-mph exit velocity against Brown in Triple-A. It’s a small sample concern for now. Inconsistencies with his command remain on display, and the relief risk is palpable. While his fastball, slider, and curve are all viewed as above-average offerings, the lack of command and changeup are traits of pitchers who eventually land in the bullpen. We’ve seen plenty of guys succeed with non-traditional repertoires lately, but they usually rely on some sort of unicorn trait. I’m unaware of Brown fitting this mold.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
146 PA, 13 HR, .346/.384/.721

Prospects like CES tend to create a lot of arguments among the general public. He was one of the top minor league performers in 2022, and he’s repeating the effort this season. However, poor plate discipline and a hefty swinging-strike rate introduce considerable risk. There’s also doubt about his ability to stick at third base. Cincinnati has already conceded this by using him 17 games at first, seven at DH, and seven at third. Few first basemen are this ill-disciplined. Of qualified first basemen, only Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Ryan Mountcastle have walk rates below 6.0 percent. Drury and Urshela aren’t really first basemen. On the other hand, CES punishes baseballs when he connects, averaging 92.2-mph on contact. If he can mount any sort of resistance to the inevitable bevy of breaking balls out of the zone, he could develop into a legitimate 40-homer threat.

Cade Povich, 23, SP, BAL (AA)
40 IP, 13.73 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 4.50 ERA

Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, Povich probably deserves inclusion in the latter portion of Top 100 lists. The southpaw doesn’t have any overwhelming traits, but the total package resembles many adequate left-handers around the league. Povich’s basic stats suggest cause for both optimism and skepticism. His 2.20 FIP and 2.47 xFIP are a sight better than his 4.50 ERA – largely due to a .356 BABIP and 62.2 percent strand rate. In the minors, such stats can be more than the “luck” we generally attribute them to in the Majors, and Povich also had a poor strand rate in 2022. It could indicate issues pitching out of the stretch. I’ve reached out to a couple contacts for their thoughts.

Worth mentioning, the Eastern League is not using the pretacked ball.

Emmet Sheehan, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
44 IP, 15.55 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.64 ERA

The Texas League also isn’t using the pretacked ball. Sheehan started to generate hype late last season, culminating in a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Sheehan is overwhelming the Double-A competition as evidenced by a 20.1 percent swinging strike rate, .176 BABIP, and 97% strand rate. Such figures indicate luck, but they also speak of an ability to miss bats with impunity. The star of the show is a double-plus changeup. A prospect watcher tipped me off last season about changeup artists – they tend to overperform in the minors. At the time, we were discussing Grayson Rodriguez. Like the other pitchers we’ve covered today, Sheehan’s command sparks comments about a future in the bullpen. Scouts also seem to dislike his mechanics – he tends to fall off hard to the first base line. I tend to ignore such comments. Goofy mechanics may (or may not) increase injury risk, but they also lead to unusual looks for hitters.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain, who we discussed in this section last week, has rushed out to a heady .380/.456/.600 performance in 57 Major League plate appearances. Red flags include a .531 BABIP, modest exit velocities, and 28.1 percent strikeout rate. However, McLain is showing power, advanced plate discipline, and a high rate of swinging contact (7.3 percent SwStr%).

Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23): Although not yet on the radar for top prospect status, Dezenzo is quickly accelerating through the Astros system as a third baseman. A scout brought him to my attention a month ago. He’s a low-angle, line-drive machine, leading to high BABIPs. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his game, introducing risk of stalling in the upper minors. Dezenzo was recently promoted to Double-A.

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): For fans of Esteury Ruiz, Rojas basically has a better version of a similar profile. He doesn’t visually look like Alfonso Soriano the way Ruiz does, but you can easily discern the athletic ability. Unlike Ruiz, he’s already regarded as a plus center fielder. Already on the 40-man roster, Rojas seems likely to ascend to Triple-A in the coming weeks.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Cedric Mullins Leaves Game Due To Right Abductor/Groin Injury

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Cedric Mullins left today’s game with what Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters was a strain in the outfielder’s right abductor/groin area.  Mullins suffered the injury in the eighth inning of the 5-0 loss to the Guardians, as the center fielder was trying to beat out a grounder to first base.

More will be known about Mullins’ condition after he undergoes testing, but it certainly looks like he’ll be headed to the 10-day injured list, and the only hope is that his strain is of the relatively mild variety.  In the interim, the Orioles will have to make do without their team leader in fWAR (1.8), and a player who has been a somewhat underrated all-around contributor since the start of the 2021 campaign.

Over 224 plate appearances this season, Mullins has hit .263/.356/.479 with eight homers and 13 steals (in 15 chances).  That translates to a 133 wRC+, which is only slightly behind Mullins’ career-best 136 wRC+ mark over 675 PA in 2021.  It’s worth noting that Mullins’ .362 wOBA far outpaces his .318 wOBA this year because his hard-contact numbers are below average, but (ironically, given the circumstances of today’s injury) Mullins’ excellent speed has often allowed him to turn that soft contact into base hits.  The outfielder’s strikeout and rate walks are well above average, and Mullins’ 11.8% walk rate is easily his career best, and a nice improvement for a player who has sometimes struggled to consistently get on base.

Offense is only part of the story for Mullins, who is also a standout defender in center field.  The Outs Above Average metric has always loved his glovework, and while the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics are a bit more mixed over the years, he got unanimously positive grades across the board for his center field work in 2022.

Replacing Mullins in the event of a longer-term injury will be very difficult for the Orioles, but the team has enough outfield options to get by if he is only sidelined for a couple or weeks.  Ryan McKenna and Austin Hays are the only other players besides Mullins to see any action in Baltimore’s center field since the start of the 2021 season, and since Hays is already getting regular action in left field, so the O’s might just go with a platoon of McKenna and Terrin Vavra up the middle.

Baltimore has top outfield prospects Colton Cowser and Kyle Stowers down at Triple-A, though both are themselves currently sidelined with injuries.  The Orioles could turn to their prospect depth in another fashion, as The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka suggests Joey Ortiz could be recalled, which shifts Adam Frazier into the outfield mix with Hays, McKenna, and Vavra.  Perhaps the simplest move would be for the Orioles to select the contract of Daz Cameron from Triple-A, as the former first-rounder is hitting well at Triple-A in his first season in the organization.

Quick Hits: Stroman, Maeda, Orioles, Barreto

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Cubs starter Marcus Stroman remains hopeful of finding a long term contract extension with the Cubs, with the veteran telling Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that a trade away from Wrigley would “bother” him.

“At this point in my career, I’m so open to anything. But it would bother me a bit, just because I feel like I do love it here, as far as the city, the organization from the top down, the fans,” Stroman said.

Stroman is the middle of another quality campaign, posting a 2.95 ERA through 11 starts. That mark comes with a 9.1% walk rate and a 21.3% strikeout rate.

It’s already been reported that Stroman and the Cubs had preliminary extension talks in the spring, and while Rosenthal adds that the Cubs are open to a new deal, it does not appear that anything is imminent. The Cubs, in the midst of an 8-19 run, would seem to be trending towards selling at the deadline and Stroman may well be a valuable trade chip for them.

Stroman holds a $21MM player option for 2024 but would appear to be on track to opt out of that and test the open market. It’s also worth noting that the Cubs can’t tender a qualifying offer to Stroman, as he already took one (and accepted it) from the Mets.

Here’s some more bits and pieces from around the sport:

  • The Orioles are one team that certainly are not trending towards being sellers, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias says they’re “preparing to be buyers”, per Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun. While there’s quite a bit of time before trade season really heats up, it should come as no surprise that the 33-19 Orioles will be adding. Despite having a hugely promising young roster, the O’s have resisted pushing the chips in, opting to sell at last year’s deadline before making only modest additions this past winter. The team has made a notable step forward this year though, and perhaps that’ll be enough to encourage Elias to be a bit more aggressive on the trade market.
  • Some help is on the way for the Twins, with Kenta Maeda and Caleb Thielbar to start rehab assignments this week, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Maeda made just four ugly starts for the Twins this season before hitting the shelf with a triceps strain, giving up 16 earned runs in as many innings. The Twins rotation has done well in Maeda and Tyler Mahle’s (Tommy John surgery) absence, and it’s possible the team could use him in relief at least to begin with. Thielbar has been out since early May with an oblique strain, and his return will give the team another left handed option in the bullpen. Thielbar was off to a nice start to the season, working to a 1.80 ERA in 10 innings.
  • The Nationals have released Franklin Barreto, per the Talk Nats podcast. The former A’s and Angels infielder joined Washington on a minor league deal but hit just .202/.282/.455 in 111 plate appearances at Triple-A. A former top-100 prospect, Barreto never hit in the big leagues, compiling a .175/.207/.342 line over parts of four seasons in the big leagues.

Orioles Option Grayson Rodriguez

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The Orioles announced this morning that the club had optioned right-hander Grayson Rodriguez to Triple-A and recalled left-hander Keegan Akin.

The move brings to an end Rodriguez’s first taste of big league action in his career. The club’s first-round pick in 2018 and a consensus top-10 prospect entering the season, Rodriguez has struggled badly to this point in the majors. The hard-throwing righty sports a ugly 7.35 ERA, 41% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and a 5.94 FIP in ten starts this season. While a 26.5% strikeout rate is excellent, Rodriguez’s 10% walk rate is well below league average. Most concerning of all, however, is the frequency with which Rodriguez has given up hard contact. The youngster’s average exit velocity, HardHit%, and Barrel% are all in the tenth percentile or worse among qualified players this season.

Rodriguez’s struggles this season have been particularly pronounced since the calendar flipped to May. In five starts this month, Rodriguez has allowed 27 runs (26 earned) with nearly as many combined walks (10) and home runs (11) as strikeouts (22) while pitching into the sixth inning just once and failing to finish the fourth inning three times. All that adds up to a brutal 11.14 ERA with a 20.8% strikeout rate and a 9.43 FIP in 21 innings of work.

Given Rodriguez’s deep struggles, it’s impossible to know when his next big league opportunity will be. That said, Rodriguez obviously has incredible talent, and is far from the only starter struggling for the Orioles this season. Offseason acquisition Cole Irvin is currently in Triple-A himself after posting a 10.38 ERA in 13 innings of work, while Tyler Wells sports a FIP north of 5.00 despite his solid 3.47 ERA. Dean Kremer (94 ERA+) and Kyle Bradish (100 ERA+) have both been roughly league average to this point in the season, leaving offseason signing Kyle Gibson as the club’s only properly above average starter, with a 3.82 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 66 innings of work.

Replacing Rodriguez on the active roster is Akin, who turned in a quality season as a reliever last year, with a 3.20 ERA and 3.59 FIP in 81 2/3 innings of work. The 28-year-old lefty struggled somewhat with a 5.91 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work at the big league level this season, but a 3.76 FIP indicates his underlying performance may have been better than the results would indicate. In seven innings of work at the Triple-A level, Akin has dominated to a 1.29 ERA with thirteen strikeouts.

John Means Suffers Back Muscle Strain

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Orioles left-hander John Means recently suffered a back muscle strain, with general manager Mike Elias relaying the news to reporters, including Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner (Twitter links).

Means, 30, underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and is on the 60-day injured list. It was already known that he wasn’t going to be available to the Orioles in the early parts of this season but this new issue will push his timeline even further down the road.  “We’re still very much hoping to get him back this season,” Elias said. “But this is obviously going to slow things down and tack on some time before we actually see him out pitching games.” Elias said that a return in July is out of the picture, meaning it will still be many months before he returns.

It’s an unfortunate development as Means had previously been one of the few bright spots on the Baltimore roster during their dismal rebuilding years. He has 356 2/3 career innings with a 3.81 ERA. His 21.2% strikeout rate is actually slightly below average, but he pairs that with strong control, shown by his 5% walk rate.

The club is now showing that those dreary tanking years are in the past, as they have shot out to an excellent 33-17 start here in 2023. However, the starting rotation still stands out as an area that could use some improvement. The Baltimore starters have a collective 4.76 ERA this year, a mark that places them 21st out of the 30 clubs in the league.

Getting Means back into the mix could have provided them with a stabilizing effect but that will now have to wait. His continued progress over the next few months could perhaps have an impact on how the club approaches the trade deadline, which is on August 1 this year. If the southpaw seems like he’s close to returning by then, perhaps they feel less urgency to splurge on a rotation addition, but the inverse could also be true.

Means still hadn’t settled his arbitration salary last year at the time of his surgery. Shortly after going under the knife, he and the club agreed to a two-year, $5.925MM deal that covered both last year and this season. He’ll be eligible for arbitration one more time for the 2024 season, after which he’d reach free agency. The kind of raise he’ll be able to command will be impacted by when he’s able to return and what form he’s in.

Elsewhere on the Orioles’ roster, right-hander Dillon Tate has been dealing with a flexor strain since November and still hasn’t made it to the majors this year. He’s been pitching in the minors on a rehab assignment for the past month but won’t be joining the big league club anytime soon. Elias says that Tate has a stress reaction in his elbow, a different area than his flexor tendon injury, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The right-hander will be shut down until the issue passes before going out on yet another rehab assignment.

The 29-year-old posted a solid 3.05 ERA last year in 73 2/3 innings for the O’s. He struck out 20.5% of batters faced, walked 5.5% and got grounders on 57.4% of balls in play. He reached arbitration for the first time over the winter and is making $1.5MM this year. He can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons before he’s slated to reach free agency after 2025.

Orioles Sign Ben DeLuzio To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles have signed outfielder Ben DeLuzio to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has reported to the Triple-A Norfolk Tides and is in the lineup for tonight’s game.

DeLuzio, 28, was with the Cardinals last year but was non-tendered at season’s end and became a free agent. He signed a minor league deal with the Cubs this winter but didn’t make the club out of camp and was released. He landed with the Dodgers on another minor league deal but he hit just .180/.286/.258 in Triple-A and was again released last week, now landing with the Orioles.

His only major league experience came with the Cards last year, when he hit .150/.292/.200 in a small sample of 25 plate appearances. Although he didn’t steal a base in that time, his speed and defense are his best assets. He stole 30 bases in Triple-A last year and added another five in his brief stint with the Dodgers this year. While he was in the majors last year, Statcast pegged his sprint speed in the 98th percentile.

The Orioles already have plenty of speed, as their collective 43 steals put them fifth out of the 30 clubs in the league. Nonetheless, if DeLuzio can take a meaningful step forward with the bat, he could serve as an intriguing bench piece for the club, serving as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. He hit .283/.359/.430 in the minors from 2019 to 2022 and perhaps is capable of a stronger showing than what he’s mustered here in 2023 so far. If he’s able to make the roster, he has a full slate of options and less than a year of service time.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

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Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

Orioles Activate Mychal Givens

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The Orioles announced a pair of roster moves this morning, as the club activated right-hander Mychal Givens from the injured list and optioned left-hander Cole Irvin to Triple-A.

Givens is poised to make his 2023 regular season debut, as the righty opened the season on the injured list due to knee inflammation. It will be a homecoming for the 33-year-old veteran, who was drafted by Baltimore in the second round of the 2009 draft and spent the first five and a half seasons of his career with the Orioles, racking up 31 saves to go with a 3.32 ERA in 336 innings for the club before he was traded to the Rockies part way through the 2020 campaign.

Since departing the Orioles, Givens has pitched for the Cubs, Reds, and Mets in addition to the Rockies. With a 3.62 ERA and 4.62 FIP over 121 2/3 innings during his two and a half seasons in the National League, Givens inked a one-year, $5MM pact with his original team and returned to Baltimore. Now that he’s healthy, Givens figures to join the likes of Felix Bautista, Bryan Baker, and Danny Coulombe as a late-inning arm in the Orioles bullpen.

As for Irvin, the lefty threw just seven pitches since being recalled from Triple-A last week, allowing one hit and no walks without recording a strikeout in the one out appearance. Irvin had been a member of the rotation in Baltimore to open the 2023 campaign, but pitched to a worrisome 10.66 ERA in three starts that led the Orioles to pull the plug and send him to Norfolk after just two weeks. He figures to continue to act as pitching depth for the Orioles for the foreseeable future.

Orioles Place Colton Cowser On Minor League Injured List

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  • Speaking of minor league injuries, the Orioles placed Colton Cowser on the injured list at Triple-A Norfolk today due to a left quad issue.  One of many highly-touted prospects in Baltimore’s loaded farm system, Cowser was the fifth overall pick of the 2021 draft, and has mashed Triple-A pitching to the tune of seven home runs and a .331/.469/.554 slash line over 179 PA this season.  There has already been speculation about Cowser’s MLB debut coming sooner rather than later, but the consensus top-50 prospect will have to wait a little longer while his quad heals.

Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023

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It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…

Currently on a Major League Roster

Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate

Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.

At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.

Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate

The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.

The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.

Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate

Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.

Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.

Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate

Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.

Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.

Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate

The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.

Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.

Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.

Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate

Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.

Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.

Currently on the Major League Injured List

  • Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
  • Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
  • Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.

Currently in DFA Limbo

  • Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.

Already Returned to their Former Club

  • Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
  • Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
  • Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
  • Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
  • Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.
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