Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
28 out of the 30 clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, with the Padres and Braves the only exceptions. That means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days.
Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, as the 60-day injured list comes back when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, having gone away shortly after the conclusion of the World Series. This year, the Dodgers and Padres will have an earlier reporting date, due to their earlier Opening Day. Most clubs will begin their 2024 campaign on March 28, but those two clubs are playing a pair of games in Seoul on March 20 and 21. The official 60-day IL dates, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post, are February 8 for the Dodgers, February 11 for the Padres and February 14 for every other club. It’s fairly moot for the Padres since they only have 36 players on their 40-man roster right now, but the Dodgers could be moving guys to the IL as soon as today.
It’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. Transferring a player to the 60-day IL also requires a corresponding move, so a club can’t just make the move in isolation.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, as well as guys like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall, Brandon Belt and many more. A player like Brandon Woodruff, who is expected to miss significant time and will need an IL spot himself, might be better able to secure a deal once IL spots open up. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.
NL West
Diamondbacks: Drey Jameson
Jameson underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. He will almost certainly spend the entire 2024 season on the IL.
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Nick Frasso
Kershaw is not officially signed yet, with his physical reportedly taking place today. It doesn’t seem as though it’s a coincidence that today is the first day the club can move players to the IL. He is recovering from shoulder surgery and not expected back until late in the summer. Gonsolin underwent Tommy John surgery in August and may miss the entire campaign. May had surgery in July to repair his flexor tendon as well as a Tommy John revision. He is expected to return at some point midseason. Frasso underwent labrum surgery in November and may miss the entire season.
Giants: Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb
The Giants acquired Ray from the Mariners in a trade last month, knowing full well that he underwent Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon repair in May of last year. He recently said that a return around the All-Star break would be a best-case scenario. Cobb underwent hip surgery in October and isn’t expected back until May at the earliest. His is a more of a borderline case since placing him on the IL would prevent him from returning until late May.
Padres: Tucupita Marcano
Marcano underwent ACL surgery in August of last year while with the Pirates. The Padres claimed him off waivers from the Bucs in November. Recovering from an ACL surgery usually takes about a year or so, meaning Marcano is likely to miss a decent chunk of the upcoming campaign. But as mentioned earlier, the Friars only have 36 players on their 40-man right now, meaning there’s no rush to get Marcano to the IL and open up a roster spot.
Rockies: Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, Lucas Gilbreath
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Gilbreath may be the closest to returning, as he went under the knife back in March. Márquez and Senzatela underwent their surgeries in May and July, respectively. General manager Bill Schmidt said recently that the club is hopeful Márquez can be back after the All-Star break but is anticipating Senzatela to miss the whole campaign.
NL Central
Brewers: None.
Cardinals: None.
Cubs: None.
Pirates: JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Endy Rodríguez,
Brubaker and Burrows both underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. It’s possible they could be ready to go early in the upcoming season, as some pitchers return around a year after going under the knife. But most pitchers take 14 months or longer so their respective rehabs may push deeper into the upcoming season. Oviedo also underwent TJS but his was in November, meaning he’ll certainly miss the entire 2024 season. The same goes for Rodríguez, who underwent UCL/flexor tendon surgery in December.
Reds: None.
NL East
Braves: Ian Anderson, Penn Murfee, Ángel Perdomo
Anderson underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He was on optional assignment at the time and spent the whole year on the minor league injured list. He could be placed on the major league IL this year if the club needs a roster spot, but they only have 37 guys on the 40-man as of today. Murfee underwent UCL surgery while with the Mariners in June of last year. The Braves signed him to a split deal even though he isn’t likely to be a factor until midseason. Perdomo also got a split deal despite undergoing Tommy John surgery in October of last year, meaning he will miss all of 2024. Since Murfee and Perdomo signed split deals, the club might try to pass them through waivers at some point rather than transferring them to the IL.
Marlins: Sandy Alcántara
Alcántara underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will have to miss the entire 2024 season.
Mets: Ronny Mauricio, David Peterson
Mauricio just suffered a torn ACL in December and will almost certainly miss the entire 2024 season. Peterson underwent hip surgery in November with a recovery timeline of six to seven months, meaning he won’t be able to return until May or June.
Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, Cade Cavalli, Zach Brzykcy
By all accounts, Strasburg will never be able to return to the mound due to nerve damage stemming from his battle with thoracic outlet syndrome. He and the Nats had a deal for him to retire but it reportedly fell apart due to some sort of squabble about his contract. His deal runs through 2026 and he may spend the next three years on the IL unless those retirement talks can be revamped. Cavalli had Tommy John surgery in March of last year, so he could return relatively early in the upcoming campaign. The Nats will probably only move him to the 60-day IL if they don’t think he can return before June. Brzykcy underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was added to the club’s roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.
Phillies: None.
AL West
Angels: José Quijada
Quijada underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will miss some portion of the 2024 season. He’ll likely wind up on the 60-day IL unless the club expects him back within about a year of going under the knife.
Astros: Kendall Graveman, Luis García, Lance McCullers Jr.
Graveman recently underwent shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the entire 2024 season. García underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will have to at least miss some of the upcoming campaign. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend upon how his rehab is progressing. McCullers underwent flexor tendon surgery in June and isn’t expected back until late in the summer.
Athletics: Ken Waldichuk
In December, it was reported that Waldichuk is rehabbing from a flexor strain and UCL sprain. He and the club opted for a non-surgical approach involving a Tenex procedure and PRP injection. As of reporting from this weekend, he still hasn’t begun throwing. His situation will likely be monitored in the spring to see how his rehab proceeds.
Mariners: None.
Rangers: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Carson Coleman
deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and is targeting a return this August. Mahle underwent the same procedure in May and the Rangers signed him to a two-year deal, knowing he likely won’t be able to return until midseason in 2024. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and won’t be able to return until June or July. Coleman was a Rule 5 selection of the Rangers, taken from the Yankees. He had Tommy John in April of last year and will likely still be rehabbing for the early parts of the upcoming campaign.
AL Central
Guardians: Daniel Espino
Espino underwent shoulder surgery in May of last year with an estimated recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.
Royals: Kris Bubic, Kyle Wright, Josh Taylor
Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will have to miss at least some of the 2024 season. Whether he winds up on the 60-day IL or not will depend if the club thinks he can return before June. Wright underwent shoulder surgery while with Atlanta last year and will miss all of 2024. The Royals acquired him in a trade, hoping for a return to health in 2025 and beyond. Taylor was already on the IL due to a shoulder impingement in June of last year when he required surgery on a herniated disc in his lower back. His current status isn’t publicly known.
Tigers: None.
Twins: Josh Staumont
Staumont underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in July of last year while with the Royals. He was non-tendered by the Royals and then signed by the Twins. His recovery timeline is unclear at the moment.
White Sox: Matt Foster, Davis Martin
Both of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year, Foster in April and Martin in May. They could perhaps return early in the season if their rehabs go especially well, but they also might need to continue rehabbing until midseason.
AL East
Blue Jays: None.
Orioles: Félix Bautista
Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October of last year and will miss the entire 2024 season.
Rays: Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Taylor Walls
Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He could be a factor in the early months of the season if his rehab is going well, as some pitchers can return after about a year, but he also may need a bit more time. McClanahan underwent the same procedure but in August and will likely miss the entirety of the upcoming season. Rasmussen was dealing with a flexor strain last year and underwent an internal brace procedure in July, which will keep him out until midseason. Walls underwent hip surgery in October and is more up in the air as there’s a chance he’s ready as soon as Opening Day, depending on how his rehab goes.
Red Sox: None.
Yankees: Jasson Domínguez
Domínguez underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. The return for hitters is generally shorter than pitchers, but the Yanks estimated his return timeline as 9-10 months, which will still keep him on the shelf until midseason.
Orioles Claim Livan Soto From Angels
The Orioles announced that they have claimed Livan Soto off waivers from the Angels. The Halos designated the infielder for assignment on the weekend. The O’s had a vacancy on their 40-man roster but it is now full after this move. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase reported the claim prior to the club announcement.
Soto, 24 in June, is generally considered a strong defender and solid contact hitter, but with little power to speak of. He made his major league debut in 2022 and hit a tremendous .400/.414/.582 in his first 59 plate appearances, though that was largely the product of an unsustainable .500 batting average on balls in play. He only received 12 big league plate appearances last year and hit .222/.417/.222 in those.
That’s a small sample of work and tough to draw conclusions from. Over the past three years, he has made 1,470 trips to the plate in the minor leagues. He drew walks in 12% of those but only hit 22 home runs, leading to a combined slash line of .247/.341/.356 and 87 wRC+.
As mentioned, he’s considered a strong defender, having spent significant time at the three infield spots to the left of first base. The O’s are looking for a left-handed hitting infielder to factor in at second base, per general manager Mike Elias, to pair with the right-handed hitting Jordan Westburg. To that end, they have acquired Nick Maton in a cash deal yesterday. Soto also hits from the left side and will likely factor into the competition for that part-time role.
Maton is out of options, which could give him a leg up in that competition but also could lead to him getting squeezed off the roster at some point. Soto has a couple of option years remaining and could be kept in the minors as depth until he’s needed in the big leagues. He’s still quite young and perhaps the O’s could find a way to coax some more power out of him going forward.
Orioles Notes: Holliday, Mateo, Hays, Ownership
Jackson Holliday is among the non-roster players who received an invitation to big league Spring Training with the Orioles. There was never any doubt the sport’s top prospect would be in MLB camp as he tries to lock down a spot on the Opening Day roster. Baltimore will take advantage of exhibition play to get the 2022 #1 pick experience at both middle infield spots.
General manager Mike Elias told 105.7 The Fan (X link) on Tuesday that the O’s will get Holliday “a lot” of work at second base in camp. The 20-year-old has started 25 games at the keystone in his minor league career. Holliday has made 110 starts at his primary shortstop spot. While the O’s certainly aren’t moving him off the infield’s most demanding position, there’s no harm in building his experience on either side of the second base bag.
Baltimore has plenty of infield talent even after including Joey Ortiz in the Corbin Burnes trade. Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson can handle either position on the left side. Jordan Westburg split his time between second and third base while posting a solid .260/.311/.404 batting line over his first 228 MLB plate appearances.
Elias said the O’s would like to have a left-handed hitter who could factor into the second base mix, where the righty-swinging Westburg is in line for the majority of the playing time. Holliday could fit that bill once he’s officially called up, occasionally taking second base reps against tough right-handed starters (with Henderson sliding from third base to shortstop in that scenario). Baltimore acquired another lefty-hitting infield option, Nick Maton, in a small trade with Detroit last night.
The glut of infield talent should push last year’s Opening Day shortstop, Jorge Mateo, out of the regular lineup. The speedster remains on the roster despite speculation he could be traded or even non-tendered. Elias told The Fan that Mateo will see a decent amount of outfield run in Spring Training as he prepares for a utility role. While Baltimore has played Mateo mostly in the middle infield over the past two seasons, he has seen action in center field during his career.
Barring injury, Mateo isn’t going to be a regular on the outfield grass. He’s a good enough athlete to cover all three spots behind the projected starting trio of Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander. Top prospects Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad reached the majors last year. Kyle Stowers, Ryan McKenna and Sam Hilliard are all on the 40-man roster as well.
Hays found himself in the news this week, as the righty-hitting outfielder triumphed in his arbitration case against the club. He secured a $6.3MM salary for his second of three trips through that process. Hays is on track to get to free agency after the 2025 season, but his camp seems amenable to working out a long-term deal.
Francis Marquez, Hays’ representative at the MAS+ Agency, told Danielle Allentuck and Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner that there were no hard feelings coming out of the hearing. That’s not always the case, as some players bristle at being criticized by team representatives in what is an inherently adversarial proceeding.
“It could’ve been something that would’ve derailed a lot of good faith that has been built, and it did not,” Marquez told the Baltimore Banner. “Unabashedly, Austin is an Oriole, and he feels that he is young enough and he’s good enough to be a member of the Orioles for a long time, not just the time that he has in the arbitration system. So I think in an ideal world, 100%, Austin Hays would like to be a player who just wears an Orioles uniform during his career.”
It’s unclear whether the team has any interest in retaining Hays beyond his six-year control window. Marquez told Allentuck and Kostka that there have not been any extension talks to this point. With highly-regarded prospects like Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers and last year’s first-round selection Enrique Bradfield Jr. in the system, Baltimore could decide to wait things out on their current starting outfield.
There’s ample long-term payroll space for the O’s if they decide to begin committing to some members of the core, Hays or otherwise. Baltimore’s only obligations beyond the upcoming season are a $1MM salary for star closer Félix Bautista and option buyouts to Craig Kimbrel, Danny Coulombe and Cionel Pérez.
Baltimore fans are hopeful the incoming ownership group will sign off on the kind of long-term deals which the team hasn’t made since John Angelos became point person. The incoming group led by David Rubenstein is set to take control of 40% of the franchise, pending approval from MLB’s other owners. (He’d assume a majority stake upon the passing of Peter Angelos.) Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun reported that a nine-person committee discussed the terms of the sale agreement at this week’s owners’ meeting. Weyrich suggests that MLB could move quickly to approve the sale based on their familiarity with Rubenstein, perhaps voting on it within a couple months.
MLBTR Podcast: The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The sale of the Orioles (2:50)
- The Orioles acquire Corbin Burnes from the Brewers (12:05)
- The Royals give Bobby Witt Jr. an 11-year extension (26:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans – listen here
- The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market – listen here
- The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Orioles Acquire Nick Maton
The Orioles have acquired infielder Nick Maton from the Tigers for cash considerations, both teams announced. Detroit had designated him for assignment on Monday when they claimed reliever Kolton Ingram from the Angels. The O’s now have 39 players on the 40-man roster.
It’s the second time in recent weeks that the O’s swung a trade for an infielder squeezed off the roster in Detroit. Baltimore brought back Tyler Nevin in a January cash transaction after his DFA as well. They’ll again send some money to the Tigers to jump the waiver order and add to their infield depth.
Maton, who turns 27 later this month, had a disappointing year in Detroit. The Tigers acquired him from the Phillies among a three-player return for hard-throwing reliever Gregory Soto last offseason. Maton got a decent amount of early-season run but struggled on both sides of the ball. He hit .173/.288/.305 with eight home runs through a career-high 293 plate appearances. He also had a handful of costly defensive miscues and rated as a below-average defender at both second and third base.
Despite the sub-replacement level production, it’s unsurprising that someone was willing to take a flier on Maton. He responded well to a midseason optional assignment to Triple-A, hitting .293/.414/.457 over 38 minor league contests. Maton has demonstrated a very patient offensive approach throughout his career. He took free passes at a 15.4% rate in Triple-A and walked in 13% of his MLB plate appearances with Detroit.
Baltimore already has a strong collection of infield talent. Nevin and Maton join Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo and Ramón Urías on the 40-man roster. Baltimore shipped out Joey Ortiz in the Corbin Burnes trade but is expected to add Jackson Holliday to the MLB team early in the year, perhaps on Opening Day.
GM Mike Elias nevertheless told 105.7 The Fan yesterday (X link) that the front office felt there was room for a left-handed hitter who could factor in at second base. Westburg, a righty bat, is the projected starter. Adam Frazier, who worked as a lefty-swinging second baseman a year ago, departed in free agency.
Maton hits from the left side, so he could battle for that job in Spring Training. Like Nevin, he is out of minor league option years. Baltimore can’t send him to Triple-A without first trying to run him through waivers. There’s no guarantee he makes the team — it’s hard to envision both Nevin and Maton cracking the Opening Day roster — but there’s also little harm for the O’s in leveraging their vacancies at the back of the 40-man to add competition in Spring Training.
Jacob Webb Wins Arbitration Hearing Over Orioles
Reliever Jacob Webb prevailed in his arbitration hearing against the Orioles, as first reported by Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link). He’ll make the $1MM sought by his camp at KHG Sports Management as opposed to the team’s $925K filing figure.
Webb has only spent a couple months in Baltimore. The O’s snagged him off waivers from the Angels in early August. The 30-year-old righty had a strong finish to the season, turning in a 3.27 ERA through 22 innings. He finished the season with a personal-high 53 2/3 frames between the two clubs. Webb struck out nearly a quarter of batters faced and worked to a 3.69 ERA behind an excellent 15.1% swinging strike rate.
Control remained an issue, as Webb walked almost 13% of opposing hitters. He hasn’t had great command at any point in his career, but he’s generally found success regardless. Webb has a sub-3.00 ERA in 130 1/3 big league frames between Atlanta, Los Angeles and Baltimore. That seems likely to earn him a spot in the season-opening relief group for the Orioles. Webb is out of options, so the O’s would need to trade him or put him on waivers if they decide not to carry him on the big league roster.
Teammate Austin Hays also won his hearing against the O’s this afternoon. Tuesday marked a strong day for the players on the arbitration side. In addition to Webb and Hays, Mauricio Dubón, Taylor Ward and Phil Bickford all came out ahead. After teams won the first two arbitration cases last week, the players have won five straight. Baltimore has one unresolved case. First baseman Ryan O’Hearn is seeking a $3.8MM salary, while the team countered at $3.2MM.
Austin Hays Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Orioles
Outfielder Austin Hays has won his arbitration hearing against the Orioles, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll earn the $6.3MM figure his camp submitted this coming season rather than the $5.85MM salary for which the team filed. Hays is represented by the MAS+ Agency.
Hays, 28, has been a part of the Orioles’ organization since being drafted in 2016. He received a few proverbial cups of coffee to start his major league career but has established himself as a solid regular in the past three years. Going back to the start of the 2021 campaign, he’s appeared in 420 games for the O’s. His 6% walk rate is subpar but he’s limited strikeouts to a 21.6% clip while hitting 54 home runs. His combined .261/.313/.439 batting line translates to a wRC+ of 108, indicating he’s been 8% better than the league average hitter.
Defensively, Hays is a capable center fielder but doesn’t get to play there often thanks to the presence of Cedric Mullins. Most of his work has come in left field, where Outs Above Average is not too fond of his work, but Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved both consider him to be strong there. FanGraphs has considered him to be worth about two wins above replacement annually in that time, though Baseball Reference is a bit more bullish, with the latter using DRS as opposed to OAA.
He first qualified for arbitration last winter, with he and he club avoiding arb by agreeing to a salary of $3.2MM. Going into this winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a bump to $6.1MM in 2024. He and the club couldn’t agree prior to the filing deadline and both sides submitted figures pretty close to that projection. In the end, the arbiters sided with the player’s camp, so he’ll get a slightly higher bump.
He’ll be eligible for arbitration again in 2025 before he’s slated for free agency. It’s possible that the club’s outfield picture will change a lot between now and then. Anthony Santander is in his final season before hitting the open market, but the club’s loaded farm system has already seen young players like Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers make their major league debuts. Mullins is on the same arb schedule as Hays, slated for one more pass before free agency after 2025.
The O’s initially had five players without an agreement in place after the filing deadline, though they later avoided arbitration with Danny Coulombe and Cionel Pérez. Now that the Hays case is solved, they have two more decisions to come on Ryan O’Hearn and Jacob Webb. O’Heard filed at $3.8MM and the club at $3.2MM while Webb filed at $2.4MM to the club’s $2.2MM.
Orioles Notes: Burnes, Cease, Hicks
The Orioles completed one of the offseason’s biggest trades in landing Corbin Burnes from the Brewers earlier this week, and it was a move that GM Mike Elias said the organization had been “talking about…since when the World Series ended.” It was heavily expected that the O’s would be looking for significant rotation help during the winter, and Elias shared some details on the search when speaking with reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and MLB.com’s Jake Rill) on a conference call in the aftermath of the trade.
“Corbin Burnes is exactly what we needed. We were in a dogged pursuit of him the entire offseason,” Elias said. “Obviously, there were other starting pitchers who we pursued, but it’s harder to have somebody higher than Corbin Burnes on your wish list. It’s a tremendous impact.”
Milwaukee’s side of the deal involved two big league-ready young players (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall) with top-100 prospect pedigrees, as well as the Orioles’ Competitive Balance Round draft pick (currently 34th overall in the 2024 draft order). It was a noteworthy amount to give up even for a team as rich in minor league depth as the O’s, but Elias felt it was worth the plunge.
“We’re giving up a lot of long-term talent and also a couple of players that were going to contribute to the 2024 Orioles,” Elias said. “So I mean, this is a risky move, but it lined up for both sides. We weren’t going to force it necessarily, but our wish list was a rotation upgrade and I certainly think that the Cy Young winner and with his body of work qualifies as that. We couldn’t have found a better upgrade and now we just have to go play the games.”
While the Orioles’ offer was enough to sway the Brewers, it apparently wasn’t enough to get the White Sox to move Dylan Cease, another pitcher known to be on Baltimore’s list of potential targets. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the O’s “offered basically the same package” to White Sox, as well as an unknown additional player. The larger size of the offer probably reflects the fact that Cease is arbitration-controlled through the 2025 season while Burnes is only controlled through 2024, yet it still wasn’t enough to meet Chicago’s asking price for Cease’s services.
Past reports have suggested that the Sox have a particular interest in Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser, among many of Baltimore’s top prospects. It can be assumed that none of these blue-chippers weren’t the mystery fourth part of the Orioles’ offer to Chicago, so speculatively, it could be that the White Sox asked for one of the trio as the top position-player piece instead of Ortiz. Considering that the Sox have reportedly been looking for additional pitching in other Cease-related trade talks with the Mariners and Reds, it could also be that the White Sox wanted a better pitcher included than Hall, or perhaps a pitcher as the fourth element if the Orioles had offered a position player.
These talks are again indicative of the very large price tag that the White Sox are demanding for Cease, which isn’t really surprising given how he is their biggest trade asset apart from Luis Robert. It also understandable why the Orioles ultimately pivoted from these talks with Chicago to closing the deal on Burnes, as Burnes provides a higher ceiling as a more consistent ace-level pitcher even if he comes with one less year of control than Cease.
Obviously some of this discussion is just conjecture since we don’t know exactly what the Orioles put on the table for Cease, yet it also speaks to the interesting juggling act Elias has been facing in determining how to put the best “final touch” on the AL East-winning roster. It can be assumed that pretty much every rival team has been asking about the top tier of names in Baltimore’s farm system in any trade talks, so Elias technically has the minor league depth to complete just about any deal, he naturally isn’t going to deplete that depth for just any pitcher.
Speaking of Kjerstad and Cowser, it wouldn’t be surprising to see either youngster play big roles in whatever success awaits the 2024 Orioles, though they’re part of a crowded outfield, first base, and DH picture that also includes Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and even more up-and-coming prospects in Coby Mayo and Kyle Stowers, among others. Even with all these options on hand, Nightengale reports that the O’s still had interest in bringing back Aaron Hicks before the veteran outfielder signed with the Angels earlier this week.
After an injury-plagued stint with the Yankees, Hicks revived his career after joining the Orioles last season, hitting .275/.381/.425 over 236 PA and acting as a veteran leader within the young clubhouse. Since the Yankees are still covering Hicks’ previous contract through the 2025 season, the outfielder was available on only a minimum MLB salary to any team this winter, giving him presumably a pretty wide range of suitors.
Though the Orioles are in a better position to contend than the Angels in 2024, it could be that Hicks simply felt he wouldn’t get as much playing time in Baltimore than he would in Los Angeles. Though the Angels have a fair amount of outfield options themselves, Mike Trout‘s injury history and the unproven big league track records of Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell leave more room for Hicks to become a lineup regular.
Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes
The Orioles got their ace. Baltimore announced the acquisition of 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes from the Brewers for rookie infielder Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall, and their 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (#34 overall). Milwaukee designated lefty Ethan Small for assignment to clear the necessary 40-man roster spot.
There’d been speculation as far back as last offseason about the possibility of the Orioles acquiring a top-end starting pitcher. Baltimore has a loaded farm system that has graduated plenty of young talent over the past two seasons. Most of that has been concentrated on the position player side, making it a natural fit for them to leverage that farm depth to bring in an impact starter.
Burnes certainly qualifies. He established himself in the Milwaukee rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. The righty has finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young balloting in each of the past four seasons. He won the award in ’21 thanks to an MLB-best 2.43 ERA across 167 innings. Burnes followed up with a National League-leading 243 strikeouts and a 2.94 ERA across 202 frames the following season.
Last season was perhaps his least impressive showing since his 2020 breakout. Yet it could only be classified as a “down” year by Burnes’ immense standards. He remained a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, turning in a 3.39 ERA while logging 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts. His 25.5% strikeout rate was still a few points better than league average, as was his 12.2% swinging strike percentage. He finished eighth in Cy Young voting.
It wasn’t the same level of dominance that Burnes had shown in the preceding three years. He had fanned more than 30% of opponents with a swinging strike rate above 14% in every year from 2020-22. Burnes looked more like his old self down the stretch, however. He carried a 3.94 ERA and a 23.1% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. In the second half, he fanned 28.6% of opponents while allowing only 2.71 earned runs per nine. Opposing hitters had a pitiful .187/.259/.294 slash line after the Midsummer Classic.
Going back to the start of 2020, Burnes has a 2.86 ERA over 105 appearances. He has punched out nearly 31% of batters faced against a modest 7.1% walk rate. Batters are hitting .197/.262/.308 in nearly 2500 trips to the plate. Neither left-handed nor righty-hitting opponents have had success against him. Outside of a two-week injured list stint early in 2021 because of a finger contusion, he hasn’t missed any time within the last three years.
Burnes is a true ace, one of the 5-10 best pitchers in baseball. He jumps to the top of a rotation that has suddenly gone from Baltimore’s biggest question to one of the higher-upside staffs in the league. Kyle Bradish slots in as the #2 arm after a breakout 2023 campaign in which he worked to a 2.83 ERA over 30 starts. Grayson Rodriguez looks to have turned a corner in the second half. The former top pitching prospect worked to a 4.35 ERA in his rookie season. After being tagged for a 7.35 ERA in his first 10 MLB outings, he turned in a 2.58 mark in his final 13 regular season starts (although he was hit hard in his lone playoff appearance).
That’s a potentially elite top three. Former All-Star John Means returned from Tommy John surgery late last season. Some residual elbow soreness kept him off the club’s playoff roster, but he’s expected to be fully healthy for 2024. If that’s true, he slots in well as the #4 starter. Dean Kremer would likely occupy the final spot, with Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin pushed into season-opening relief roles.
While the O’s could perhaps benefit from another depth addition or two, they’ve landed the true #1 that should represent the finishing move on an already great roster. Baltimore’s loaded young lineup and excellent relief corps led the team to 101 wins and an AL East title a year ago. The O’s lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery at year’s end but moved early in the offseason to sign Craig Kimbrel as a replacement.
It’s likely a one-year acquisition. Burnes will hit free agency next offseason shortly after his 30th birthday. With anything like his typical levels of production, he’ll be in line for a massive contract that could top eight years and $200-250MM. Burnes has been clear about his desire to test his value on the open market. Asked in December about the possibility of signing an extension if he were traded this winter, he said such an offer “would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market.”
As recently as last week, O’s fans wouldn’t have been able to dream about the organization putting that kind of proposal on the table. Baltimore has dramatically scaled back spending since John Angelos assumed control of the franchise. On Tuesday, the Angelos family agreed to sell the organization to private equity mogul David Rubenstein. How that’ll impact the long-term payroll outlook remains to be seen, but Baltimore fans can be more optimistic about the chances of making significant investments once Rubenstein takes control of the franchise after the sale is approved by MLB in the coming months.
In any case, the primary focus is installing Burnes atop next year’s rotation. The three-time All-Star had settled on a $15.637MM contract with Milwaukee to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility. That makes him the highest-paid player on Baltimore’s roster and pushes their 2024 payroll projection to roughly $96MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. It’ll be their highest season-opening payroll since 2018 and is a marked increase over last year’s approximate $60MM mark.
Still, they’re in the bottom third of the league in projected spending. They’re making a push to defend a title in what is annually one of the sport’s most competitive divisions. Their only commitments beyond this season are a $1MM salary for Bautista and a handful of inexpensive option buyouts. Even if this takes them near their spending limit this offseason, they should have flexibility to further bolster the roster near the deadline.
That Baltimore did so without surrendering any of their true top-tier prospects reflects both the strength of their talent pipeline and the value ceiling for any player who is only one year from free agency. Ortiz and Hall are each highly-regarded young players but placed in the back half of Baltimore’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America.
Ortiz, 25, was a fourth-round pick in 2019 out of New Mexico State. He’d drawn praise for his defensive acumen dating back to his time in college. The right-handed hitter has been more productive at the plate than many amateur scouts anticipated. He owns a .286/.357/.449 slash in his minor league career. Ortiz posted even better numbers between the top two levels of the minors a year ago.
In 389 plate appearances in Norfolk, he hit .321/.378/.507 with nine homers and 30 doubles. Ortiz spent most of his time at shortstop while logging some action at both second and third base. Baltimore promoted him for the first time at the end of April. He nevertheless spent most of the season on optional assignment, appearing in only 15 big league contests. With Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson as the projected left side infield for the foreseeable future, Ortiz would have had a hard time finding much playing time.
Baseball America’s scouting report rates Ortiz as a potential 70-grade (plus-plus) defensive shortstop. Assuming he’s not traded in the next six weeks, Willy Adames will open the season at shortstop. Milwaukee is likely to lose Adames to free agency next winter at the latest, though, leaving a clear path for Ortiz to emerge as the long-term answer. In the short term, he should battle Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller for playing time at third base. If Monasterio or Miller warrant extended run at the hot corner, Ortiz is an alternative to Brice Turang at second. Turang is a gifted defender but struggled at the plate during his rookie year.
Hall, also 25, was a first-round pick out of a Georgia high school seven years ago. The 6’2″ southpaw has had the same general profile for his entire professional career: huge stuff with worrying control issues. Hall made his MLB debut in 2022 and has logged 33 big league innings over the past two seasons. He owns a 4.36 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate while working almost exclusively in relief.
His 7.6% walk percentage at the MLB level isn’t out of the ordinary. Hall has been a lot less consistent at throwing strikes in the minors, however. He handed out free passes to over 13% of batters faced in 49 innings at Norfolk a year ago, which is right in line with the 13.4% walk rate he owns in his minor league career.
That he also punched out nearly a third of batters faced in Triple-A hints at the excellent arsenal he owns. His fastball averaged nearly 96 MPH in his big league relief work. Hall also worked with a mid-80s slider and changeup while occasionally mixing in a curveball. BA’s scouting report notes that all four of those offerings could be plus or better.
It’s top-of-the-rotation caliber stuff, but Hall’s strike-throwing has led many evaluators to project him as a high-octane reliever. Milwaukee could use him in either capacity. The Brewers have ample opportunity in the rotation behind new staff ace Freddy Peralta. Veteran lefty Wade Miley is a steadying presence. After that, Milwaukee could lean on any of Colin Rea, injury returnees Joe Ross and Aaron Ashby and prospects like Hall and Robert Gasser in the rotation.
Neither Ortiz nor Hall has reached one year of major league service. They’re each under club control for at least six seasons and three years away from arbitration. They’re the kind of high minors players that Milwaukee frequently targets. Their organizational philosophy, much like that of other small-market franchises like the Rays and Guardians, is to eschew traditional competitive windows while building the farm system by trading veterans as they get close to free agency.
GM Matt Arnold stated that trading Burnes isn’t the signal of a traditional rebuild (relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Last week’s signing of Rhys Hoskins to a $34MM free agent deal that allows him to opt out after next season makes clear they’re not giving up on contending in a wide open NL Central. They’ve shown time and again they’ve nevertheless open to offers on most players to try to remain consistently competitive. After trading Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline led to discontent within the clubhouse, the front office suggested they were less inclined to make those kinds of trades during the season.
Between the shoulder injury that led Milwaukee to non-tender Brandon Woodruff and tonight’s move, the Brewers have subtracted their top two starters this offseason. Milwaukee’s payroll projection drops to around $102MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s $118MM season-opening mark. That leaves open the possibility of Milwaukee backfilling the rotation in free agency. Arnold was noncommittal as to whether the team planned to reinvest their payroll savings (via Hogg).
Milwaukee should add a third notable young player with the draft choice they acquired. Milwaukee would have received a compensatory pick had they let Burnes depart in free agency — he’ll surely reject a qualifying offer — but that wouldn’t have been until 2025. Baltimore can make Burnes a QO next offseason (and will, unless he suffers a serious injury). As a revenue sharing recipient, they’d land a compensation pick after the first round in 2025 if he signs elsewhere for at least $50MM.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Orioles were nearing a deal to acquire Burnes. Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicated the deal was agreed upon. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Ortiz and Hall were among the pieces headed to the Brewers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the inclusion of the draft pick to complete the deal.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Latest Details On Sale Of Orioles
The baseball world got a shocking development this week when it was reported that the Angelos family would be selling the club to an investment group led by David Rubenstein. The next day, the club confirmed the agreement with an announcement of the $1.725 billion sale.
Details continue to trickle out about the deal, with Pamela Wood of The Baltimore Banner looking backwards to the club’s negotiations with the State of Maryland. The Orioles and state officials were in contact for much of last year. The club’s lease of Camden Yards was set to expire after 2023 and the two sides took talks down to the middle of December before a new lease was approved.
There were plenty of speed bumps along the way. It was in early December that it was initially reported that Rubenstein was in talks to purchase the club. That seemed to delay the lease talks, with state senator Bill Ferguson expressing trepidation about giving out land development rights to an organization with an unclear ownership structure. The land development rights were part of the talks because John Angelos was reportedly attempting to leverage the negotiations into getting public land for a mixed-use project, combining Camden Yards with commercial and residential spaces.
Per Wood’s report, Angelos did not give Governor Wes Moore or other state officials any kinds of heads up about the sale agreement. Treasurer Dereck Davis said that Angelos “categorically denied that that they were for sale” before selling the team. “It wasn’t just that we weren’t told something. We were lied to,” Davis said.
“The transparency that was required — it was not there,” Gov. Moore said. “And it’s disappointing.”
“I do think that John’s behavior displayed an incredible lack of respect for the state and our role in working with the Baltimore Orioles and our role as the owners of the home of the Baltimore Orioles,” comptroller Brooke Lierman said. “It’s incredibly disappointing, although, frankly not surprising.” Despite the harsh words, it seems state officials suspected something was up and proceeded accordingly. “That said, we crafted an agreement in such a way that it would not matter who owned the Orioles because I think many of us believed that the Angelos family’s days as owners were numbered anyways,” Lierman said. “It was important for us to protect the state and taxpayers and our assets, no matter who the owners are.”
Though the two sides did eventually get a deal done, Angelos did not get the land he craved. The 30-year agreement does give the club a chance to opt out after 15 years if they don’t get a development deal within the next four years. Ken Rosenthal and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic also reported on the sale this week, relaying that some people in baseball believe that the lack of a land deal was part of what motivated Angelos to sell. On top of that, the family is also looking to improve its liquidity. Rosenthal and Ghiroli relay that they are looking to sell various assets, including One Charles Center, a 22-story office tower in Baltimore.
Going forward, the sale still needs to be approved by Major League Baseball. The owners are having a scheduled meeting next week but Buster Olney of ESPN reports that the sale is not on the docket. Rosenthal and Ghiroli suggest it will likely take months for the league to conduct background checks on everyone in the ownership group. Per Wood and Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner, the full group includes New York businessman Michael Arougheti, his partners Mitchell Goldstein and Michael Smith, Orioles Hall of Fame shortstop Cal Ripken Jr., former mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of Baltimore Kurt Schmoke, Washington Spirit majority owner Michele Kang and NBA Hall of Famer Grant Hill.
There’s also the future of the MASN issue to be considered. The Orioles and Nationals share ownership of the network, which has the broadcast rights for both clubs, with the O’s currently owning 76% of the network but dropping to 67% by 2032. Those details were worked out as part of the agreement to move the Expos from Montreal to Washington almost 20 years ago. As a compromise for moving a club into Baltimore’s territorial range, the O’s got control of the Nationals’ TV rights and the two sides have been disputing the finances of that arrangement for quite some time.
The Lerner family has been trying to sell the Nats for almost two years now, announcing in April of 2022 that they would explore the possibility. There’s been little apparent progress towards a deal, however, with reporting from about this time a year ago suggesting the MASN dispute was a key factor. Rosenthal and Ghiroli suggest that Rubenstein might sell the O’s share of MASN to Ted Leonsis, with some in the industry expecting that to eventually happen.
Leonsis owns the Washington Wizards, Washington Capitals, and Washington Mystics, as well as the Monumental Sports Network, which broadcasts those three clubs. Getting the Orioles’ TV rights could enhance the programming options for Monumental. It was reported in November of 2022 that the Lerner family was hoping to get $2.5 billion in selling the Nats but the TV rights situation was preventing them from getting to that price point. Rosenthal and Ghiroli report today that Leonsis had offered $2.2 billion. It’s unknown whether Leonsis acquiring Baltimore’s MASN share would impact any future negotiations with the Lerners.
All told, there will be plenty of domino effects worth watching out for as the situation progresses.