Orioles Nearing Deal With Mark Trumbo
4:29pm: Trumbo will be guaranteed less than $40MM in the deal, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter.
4:20pm: The sides are nearing a deal, Heyman adds in another tweet. If completed, it’ll be for three years, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets.
4:07pm: The sides are “making progress” in their talks, Heyman tweets.
3:54pm: The Orioles are “back in touch” with free-agent slugger Mark Trumbo, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). It’s not immediately apparent how serious talks are, but Heyman notes that there’s a possibility of a deal coming together.
Trumbo and the O’s were said to be in deep discussions about a deal to bring him back to Baltimore earlier in the winter. But the team pulled its offer — reported to be about either three or four years at around $14MM annually — when an agreement did not come together.
Now, it seems, the sides have picked up where they left off. Whether the O’s will still be willing to put as much cash on the table remains to be seen. Last winter, the organization circled back to Chris Davis and gave him a monster deal, though he was certainly also a unique case given his standing in the organization. But Baltimore may now also feel that Trumbo’s market demand isn’t as great.
Last we heard, teams like the Rockies and Rangers are also involved in Trumbo’s market, though it’s not clear to what extent. The 31-year-old is arguably the best remaining free agent, though demand is also impacted by the presence of a variety of other power hitters, and Trumbo’s top-tier slugging is offset by his limited on-base abilities and mediocre glovework in the outfield.
Trade/Free Agent Rumors: Holland, Astros, Feliz, Saunders, Twins
Former Royals closer Greg Holland is getting closer to selecting a new team and could make a decision within the next week, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM. Holland has been said to be seeking a two-year guarantee with an opt-out after the first season as he looks to re-establish himself following Tommy John surgery late in the 2015 season. Roughly two-thirds of the league has been linked to Holland in some capacity, though it’s unlikely that the majority of teams would be comfortable with that type of contractual arrangement. The 30-year-old figures to draw interest from contenders and non-contenders alike so he’ll have to weigh not only the financial strength of the offers he receives but also the ability to pitch for contending club and the opportunity to compete for a ninth-inning job (which non-contending clubs may be more willing to offer right away than contenders).
Some more notes pertaining to the free-agent and trade markets…
- The Astros haven’t given up on the notion of acquiring one of Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana or Chris Archer and remain in contact with the Athletics, White Sox and Rays, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted recently. The extreme asking prices on each starter makes it seem unlikely that Houston would be able to pry any of that trio loose. They’ve already balked at Chicago’s reported asking price of Francis Martes, Kyle Tucker and Joe Musgrove for Quintana, and MLB Network’s Peter Gammons tweets that he received a flat “No” when he asked one source if Gray could land in Houston. Archer, meanwhile, seems like an even longer shot to contend. The Rays have already moved one of their starters, trading Drew Smyly to the Mariners, and the remainder of their offseason dealings have been largely focused in improving the 2017 club.
- While the Brewers and right-hander Neftali Feliz have yet to finalize an agreement, the two sides are still talking and working toward that goal, tweets MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Reports over the weekend suggested that the two sides could be moving toward a deal, though there’s been little news since. Feliz had a strong 2016 season with the division-rival Pirates (3.52 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 in 53 2/3 innings) but finished the season on the shelf with a somewhat vague arm injury.
- Both the Blue Jays and Orioles were “in” on Michael Saunders before the outfielder agreed to a one-year, $9MM with the Phillies (which includes an $11MM club option and escalators), tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Per Crasnick, Saunders also drew some level of interest from the Brewers and the Diamondbacks as well, Crasnick adds, which is somewhat interesting given the fact that neither club has a clear on-paper need for an additional regular in the outfield.
- Twins manager Paul Molitor tells La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that he’s hopeful the front office will add a veteran to the roster to help bring some experience to what is overall a young clubhouse. “I’ve talked to Thad and Derek about my opinions about adding, where we could, more experienced people who have the reputation of being influential in clubhouse culture as well as leadership,” said Molitor, “and a guy who can still play.” Neal speculates that an outfield bat would be the likeliest fit, noting that Minnesota is pretty well stocked in terms of infield options and DH types.
Orioles, Jose Bautista Have Been In Contact
Even though Orioles general manager Dan Duquette called free agent right fielder Jose Bautista “a villain in Baltimore” at last month’s Winter Meetings, the executive has been in touch with the longtime Blue Jay’s camp this offseason, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link).
The degree of the Orioles’ interest in Bautista is unclear (FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported earlier this month that it’s nonexistent), but it’s known that the team is looking for another outfielder, as Duquette indicated last week. Given that negotiations with free agent Mark Trumbo don’t seem to be leading anywhere, the club is also on the hunt for a big bat. Bautista would fill those needs more than other recently Orioles–linked names like Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez and Brandon Moss, though he’d certainly come at a higher price tag than anyone from that group.
The Orioles would lose a first-round pick if they were to sign Bautista (they would get a later selection as compensation for Trumbo’s exit), but the argument for a bold short-term maneuver like adding him is that they’re built to win now. Third baseman Manny Machado, closer Zach Britton, center fielder Adam Jones and starter Chris Tillman each have two or fewer years of team control remaining, meaning Baltimore’s window to compete for a championship could be on the verge of closing.
Bautista would perhaps help keep the Orioles’ contention chances alive in the near term, but it’s worth noting that the 36-year-old’s only real asset at this point is his bat, which was ordinary by his lofty standards in 2016. In a season limited on account of multiple disabled list stints, Bautista hit .234/.366/.452 in 517 plate appearances – down from the remarkable .268/.390/.555 slash he compiled in 3,604 PAs from 2010-15.
While Bautista clearly wasn’t great in any facet last season, he was still easily above average at the plate and would make up for Trumbo’s absence with aplomb. The right-handed hitter would also provide the Orioles a third credible offensive corner outfielder, joining lefty-swingers Seth Smith and Hyun Soo Kim, as well as a far more established DH option than Trey Mancini.
AL Notes: Carter, A’s, Twins, Falvey, Mariners, La O
Here’s the latest from around the American League…
- In an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (partial audio link), agent Dave Stewart said he had spoken to “four or five teams” about client Chris Carter, including the Rangers and Orioles. The Athletics haven’t been in touch with Stewart, as the A’s gave the impression that they have moved on from Carter, who played in Oakland from 2010-12. Stewart doesn’t anticipate Carter signing within the next week or so, as the market for first base/DH types is still rather unsettled, even a few weeks after Edwin Encarnacion signed with the Indians.
- The Twins have had a fairly quiet offseason, though chief baseball officer Derek Falvey expects more activity for both his club and others as Spring Training approaches, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes. “If an opportunity presents itself, we’ll be ready to strike,” Falvey said. “The reality is, we’re standing here today with players still available in free agency that I don’t think any of us would have predicted in October. Things change.”
- With Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto saying that his team’s major offseason moves are complete, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune looks how Seattle’s 25-man roster could break down, with relatively few spots still available to be decided in Spring Training battles.
- The Rangers‘ $110K signing of Cuban infielder Luis Yander La O could end up being a bargain, Baseball America’s Ben Badler opines. La O spent almost a full year in free agency before “signing for far less money than other Cuban players who have received bigger bonuses despite having less talent,” Badler writes. Multiple changes in representation could be one reason for La O’s longer-than-expected stint on the open market, though Badler notes that many scouts see him as a utilityman rather than a potential everyday player. Still, at the cost of just a $110K bonus, the Rangers are taking little risk in La O’s future.
AL East Notes: Price, Neander, Tillman, Blue Jays
David Price wasn’t satisfied with his first season in a Red Sox uniform, telling Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that “last year was the first time in my career I didn’t have fun when I was on the field.” Price’s 2016 season (3.99 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 4.56 K/BB rate over a league-best 230 innings) counts as a down year only by his high standards, though the southpaw did post a career-high 1.17 HR/9 and he struggled in his only postseason start. Price signed a seven-year, $217MM contract with the Sox last winter, and while that deal contains an opt-out clause after the 2018 campaign, Price said he will remain in Boston throughout the life of the contract. Even if Price delivers better numbers in 2017-18, he’ll be entering his age-33 season when he’s officially faced with the decision to opt out, which could make it hard for him to top the $127MM he’s already slated to earn from the Sox from 2019-2022.
Here’s more from around the American League East…
- Speaking to Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link), Rays GM Erik Neander says his team “will continue to have an open mind” about moving another starting pitcher. Trade rumors have swirled around Tampa’s rotation all winter, seemingly culminating in the deal that sent Drew Smyly to the Mariners earlier this week. Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb also drew interest, so it’s not out of the question that the Rays would deal another starter if they can score a significant return.
- In a recent radio interview with 105.7 The Fan (hat tip to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), Chris Tillman reiterated that he would love to sign an extension to remain with the Orioles. There doesn’t appear to be much progress in talks between the two sides (“I haven’t heard anything, I haven’t seen anything,” Tillman said), though the right-hander did note that he lets his agent handle business negotiations until late in the process. The O’s began preliminary talks with Tillman’s representation last month, and Kubatko figures more serious discussions will take place during Spring Training to see if a deal can be reached before Opening Day. Tillman avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10.05MM deal for 2017, and he is eligible for free agency next winter.
- The Blue Jays’ rotation enjoyed an unusual amount of good health in 2016, Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star writes, and such durability will probably be hard to replicate this season. With the Jays short on depth options, it opens the door for top prospects Sean Reid-Foley or Conner Greene to emerge as potential late-season call-ups.
AL Notes: Park, Trumbo, Bass
Twins first baseman Byung Ho Park‘s season ended in August after a wrist injury that required surgery, but he’s now able to work out without restrictions and he has returned to batting practice, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes. Park, formerly one of the top power hitters in the KBO, will try to bounce back from a disappointing first season in the Majors in which he batted .191/.275/.409 and struck out 80 times in 244 plate appearances. The Twins owe him a total of $9.25MM through 2019. Here are a couple more quick notes from the American League.
- A couple details on Mark Trumbo‘s market — first, Peter Gammons tweets that the Orioles‘ previously reported offer to Trumbo was for three years $40MM, not $50MM-plus. That’s a relatively small offer for a player who swatted 47 home runs last season, but perhaps it’s somewhat reflective of the evident change in the market for one-dimensional sluggers, many of whom linger in free agency. A second, and perhaps related, tidbit is that the Athletics don’t seem likely to be key players in the Trumbo market, as John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group writes. The A’s strongly pursued Edwin Encarnacion, but it doesn’t appear they’re as interested in Trumbo, to whom they were connected last week.
- Free agent righty Anthony Bass has been in contact with five or six teams, and the Tigers are among them, MLB.com’s Jason Beck tweets. Bass would prefer an opportunity to start, but he is also open to pitching out of the bullpen. It’s probably unlikely he’ll get a chance to do either in the Major Leagues right away — the 29-year-old is coming off a decent but not overwhelming season with the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan, for whom he posted a 3.65 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 over 103 2/3 innings. He last appeared in the big leagues in 2015 with the Rangers.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures has come and gone, and there have been dozens of agreements broken throughout the league today. So many, in fact, that I’ve split the list up into a pair of league-specific posts to avoid having 100-something names in this list. You can see all the NL players here, and both of these will be updated as quickly as we’re able.
Many teams use the arbitration exchange as a hard deadline for negotiations on one-year deals — a “file and trial” approach which effectively means that once figures are exchanged, the only option they’ll pursue before a hearing is a multi-year deal. (The Mets and Orioles are both adopting that approach this year, and other teams to use that strategy in the past include Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, White Sox, Pirates, Reds and Nationals.)
The most significant arb agreements of the day have been snapped off into their own posts already. We’ll continue adding the smaller-scale agreements from the American League right here (all projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and all arbitration agreements and filings can be monitored in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker)…
- The Rangers have announced agreement on a deal to avoid arbitration with lefty Jake Diekman. With today’s deadline having passed, the sides did exchange figures — $3.1MM versus $1.9MM — but obviously were already nearing a number. The high-powered southpaw projected at $2.6MM, and will receive $2.55MM, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (via Twitter).
- The Mariners announced that they’ve avoided arb with all eight of their eligible players, which includes Jean Segura (reported last night), Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson, Leonys Martin, Drew Smyly, James Paxton, Evan Scribner, Nick Vincent. Numbers aren’t all in yet, but Valencia took home $5.55MM, per FanRag’s Robert Murray (on Twitter). Martin will earn $4.85MM, per Heyman. They were projected at $5.3MM and $6.3MM, respectively. Meanwhile, Dyson gets $2.8MM, Heyman tweets, which lands just over his $2.5MM projection. Smyly will receive $6.85MM — right at his $6.9MM projection — while Scribner gets $907,500, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Meanwhile, Paxton will land at $2.35MM and Vincent will receive $1.325MM, per Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (via Twitter), both of which fall shy of their respective projections ($2.7MM and $1.5MM).
- Catcher Martin Maldonado will receive $1.725MM from the Angels, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). That’s just over his $1.6MM projection.
- The Tigers announced that they settled with third baseman Nick Castellanos. He projected at $2.8MM, but will receive $3MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
- Jeremy Jeffress and Jurickson Profar have each avoided arbitration with the Rangers, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegarm (via Twitter). Jeffress receives $2.1MM, while Profar will receive $1.005MM. Also of note, the Jeffress deal includes incentives that can add up to $250K in incentives, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). He’ll get $50K apiece upon reaching 55, 60, 65, and 70 innings. He had projected for a $2.9MM salary, but his legal issues late last year certainly dented his bargaining power.
- The Athletics have avoided arbitration with catcher/DH Stephen Vogt, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. Vogt will receive $2.965MM, falling shy of his $3.7MM projection. Oakland has also reached agreement with starter Sonny Gray for $3.575MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter), which is just shy of his $3.7MM projection. Also, reliever Liam Hendriks has agreed to terms, per John Hickey of the Mercury News. He’ll get $1.1MM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
- Righty Adam Warren will get $2.29MM from the Yankees, per Baseball America’s Josh Norris (via Twitter). That’s just a shade under his $2.3MM projection. New York also announced deals with shortstop outfielder Aaron Hicks and lefty Tommy Layne, among other players whose arrangements were previously reported. Layne receives $1.075MM, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (via Twitter).
- The Orioles have avoided arbitration with second baseman Jonathan Schoop, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter links). He’ll receive $3.475MM, just over his projection of $3.4MM.
- Adding to their previously reported deals, the Red Sox have announced agreement with all but two of their arb-eligible players. Salaries were reported by MLB.com’s Ian Browne for the players avoiding arb: shortstop Xander Bogaerts gets $4.5MM ($5.7MM projection), utilityman Brock Holt receives $1.95MM ($1.7MM projection), righty Joe Kelly will earn $2.8MM ($2.6MM projection), catcher Sandy Leon takes home $1.3MM (the same as his projection), lefty Robbie Ross gets $1.825MM (just $25K over his projection), and new righty Tyler Thornburg will earn $2.05MM (just under his $2.2MM projection).
- Two moreplayers have avoided arbitration with the White Sox, per Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago (via Twitter). Among those not previously reported, starter Miguel Gonzalez gets $5.9MM and reliever Zach Putnam receives $1.175MM. That clearly indicates that Gonzalez and the Sox utilized his prior-years’ arb starting points, rather than his much lower earnings with the team last year. Putnam, meanwhile, had projected for $975K.
Earlier Updates
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Britton, Machado, Tillman
1:48pm: The Orioles and Tillman have also avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $10.05MM deal, tweets Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com.
12:20pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that Manny Machado also avoided arb with an $11.5MM deal (Twitter link). That checks in $300K north of his projection from Swartz.
11:11am: The Orioles and superstar closer Zach Britton have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a hefty $11.4MM salary for the 2017 season, reports Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (on Twitter). The Scott Boras client’s salary is an exact match with the $11.4MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Britton will be arb-eligible once more next winter before becoming a free agent after the 2018 season.
Britton, 29, is coming off one of the most dominant seasons of any reliever in history. One of the best relievers in baseball (and arguably the best), Britton led the American League in saves with 47 and posted a comically low 0.54 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 67 innings of work. He also posted an outrageous 80 percent ground-ball rate that is the highest mark in Major League history of any qualified starter or reliever dating back to 2002 when the stat was first tracked.
As can be seen in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker, Britton was one of nine Orioles players that’s eligible for arbitration. The team has six players remaining, in the form of Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, Brad Brach, Jonathan Schoop, Caleb Joseph and T.J. McFarland.
Arbitration Breakdown: Zach Britton
Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2017 projections are available right here.
Zach Britton had a phenomenal 2016 campaign for the Orioles, logging 47 saves and a 0.54 ERA over 67 innings while striking out 74 batters. As a result, the dominant sinkerballer is projected for a $4.65MM raise, from $6.75MM to $11.4MM. It is rare to find a season as dominant as Britton’s 2016, so it is not surprising that he is projected to get a raise bigger than Mark Melancon’s record $4.25MM raise last year for a third-time-eligible reliever.
Melancon saved 51 games in his platform season, four more than Britton, but his 2.23 ERA is far less impressive than Britton’s 0.54. His 62 punchouts also fell shy of Britton’s 74. Therefore, his $4.25MM raise is a plausible floor for Britton already. Britton besting this by $400K, as the model expects, seems reasonable.
Jim Johnson in 2013 got a $3.88MM raise, the second highest for a third time eligible reliever behind Melancon. He had 51 saves and a 2.49 ERA, so he also meets the criteria of logging a few more saves than Britton while posting a decidedly worse ERA.
However, since Melancon did save four more games, it is worth looking to see if guys with low ERAs but slightly fewer saves did any worse than Melancon did. Looking for guys with ERAs under 2 that were closers, no names emerge in the last five years other than Aroldis Chapman, who had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA, but only got a $3.27MM raise. Clearly, every aspect of Britton’s case is much stronger than was Chapman’s, so this is not too concerning.
Heath Bell in 2011 is probably a stale comparable, although he did have a sub-2 ERA (he posted a 1.93 ERA) and he matched Britton’s 47 saves exactly. His $3.5MM raise would almost certainly be a floor for Britton as well.
Putting it all together, there is little reason to use any comparable other than Melancon here. All other potential third-time eligible relievers got smaller raises and had worse performances. Britton should easily clear Melancon’s $4.25MM number, and the model’s $4.65MM projected raise seems as reasonable as anything. Because Baltimore is now moving to a “file-and-trial” approach, though, the stakes are raised as the sides try to work out an agreement on the heels of Britton’s historic season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets, Orioles To Employ “File-And-Trial” Arbitration Approach
The Mets and Orioles will adopt a “file-and-trial” approach to their arbitration-eligible players this year, as Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter) and Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (also on Twitter) report. That means that the organizations will only negotiate with players up until tomorrow’s 1pm EST deadline to exchange filing figures; if no deal is found with a given player, they’ll take the case to arbitration.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained the “file-and-trial” stance a few years back. Some organizations adopt it as a blanket rule, with at least some of those willing to make exceptions only in cases of multi-year arrangements. Others will utilize it on a case-by-case basis, notifying certain players of that intention in the course of negotiations.
It’s always tough to keep tabs on precisely which teams utilize this strategy, and it can certainly change — especially with front office turnover. At last check, though, file-and-trial teams include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, and White Sox. And there are at least five others that seem to take that approach with some players: the Brewers, Indians, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds.
By adopting this approach, the New York and Baltimore organizations have turned up the heat on their final talks with arb-eligible players. As things stand, the O’s have yet to reach terms with a variety of notable players, led by Zach Britton, Manny Machado, Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Jonathan Schoop. The club also has to work out salaries with Brad Brach and Caleb Joseph. It’s not an easy season for the Mets, either; they have yet to settle with Addison Reed, Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, and Josh Edgin.
As always, you can view MLBTR’s arbitration projects right here, and track the players who have and haven’t agreed to terms with our arbitration tracker.