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Braves Claim Billy Hamilton

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The Braves have claimed outfielder Billy Hamilton off waivers from the Royals, per a club announcement. The Atlanta organization will be responsible for the remainder of Hamilton’s $4.25MM salary along with a $1MM buyout on a mutual option.

It’s a fairly significant price to pay, but understandable under the circumstances. The Braves have lost their two best left-handed-hitting outfield options, Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte, to injuries that may not heal by the end of the season. Lacking the ability to strike a trade for a MLB contract, the club had limited avenues for acquiring a replacement. The

As we noted when Inciarte’s injury arose, Hamilton is in the same general sub-category of player. Both are speedy, defensive-oriented center fielders who hit from the left side. If Inciarte is something of an archetype, Hamilton is an extreme version of the class. Hamilton has been an exceedingly valuable fielder and baserunner, though he has minimal power and has rarely reached base at palatable rates.

This year, Hamilton’s bat has sunk even further. At the time of his departure from the K.C. roster, he had produced 305 plate appearances of 44 wRC+ output. He’s still valued as an excellent defender and baserunner, though there has been a bit of erosion in Hamilton’s most notable physical skill. By measure of Statcast, his sprint speed has fallen from a 99+ percentile placement in recent years to the 97.5th percentile this season.

While Hamilton hasn’t been at his best in 2019, he ought to help shore things up down the stretch. And he’s a fascinating postseason roster piece as a potential late-inning pinch runner and/or defensive replacement. That’s arguably worth a premium to a team that’s all but assured of a postseason appearance. As we discussed in profiling some August waiver claim candidates, the Braves can perhaps afford to splurge on a needed addition given that they were bailed out of the remainder of their obligations to Kevin Gausman.

Royals Designate Billy Hamilton

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The Royals have designated outfielder Billy Hamilton for assignment. His active roster spot will go to Brett Phillips, who was recalled from Triple-A.

Hamilton has long seemed a candidate to change uniforms — ever since he was signed over the offseason, in fact. The rebuilding Kansas City organization inked him for a guaranteed $5.25MM (including a $1MM buyout on a 2020 mutual option) after the Reds non-tendered Hamilton to send him onto the open market.

The 28-year-old Hamilton has never delivered much with the bat, but he’s finding new lows in 2019. Through 305 plate appearances, he’s slashing a meager .211/.275/.269. It’s hard to carry any player on the roster with that kind of offensive output, which is worse than half the league-average hitter (44 wRC+).

Baserunning and defense have long allowed Hamilton to make up for his shortcomings at the plate. But Hamilton isn’t running as often or as well when he does get aboard. The renowned base-stealer has only taken 18 bags, while being cut down five times. Statcast identifies a relatively small but still notable reduction in his sprint speed; Fangraphs’ BsR measure identifies him as a very good but not uniquely exceptional overall baserunner. Defensive metrics do remain quite positive, which remains a strong feather in Hamilton’s cap.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Hamilton. The contract is rather steep for a player that won’t likely feature as more than a 4th or 5th outfielder for a contender. But it’s also fascinating to contemplate what the speedster could do down the stretch and on a postseason roster. If some team decides it really wants to have him, and doesn’t want to risk Hamilton choosing another organization, it’s certainly possible we’ll see a claim.

Meanwhile, the move will open the door for the Royals to get their first look at Phillips in the majors this year. He is still swinging and missing quite a bit this season at Triple-A, as he has since landing with the Milwaukee organization, but he has ramped his walk rate up to 17.4% while delivering good power numbers (.264 ISO, .505 SLG).

Royals Likely To Move Hamilton, Gore

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So much focus this time of the year is placed on the biggest names on the trade market. And while it’s understandable that everyone wants to know where Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman and other players of that ilk will land, it’s also true that smaller-scale deals can often have considerable postseason ramifications. To that end, while neither move will generate much in the way of national headlines, it’s worth noting that the Royals are all but certain to trade both Billy Hamilton and Terrance Gore (who has already been designated for assignment) in the near future.

The switch-hitting Hamilton has recently been dropped to a backup role following the promotion of former top prospect Bubba Starling and hasn’t started a game since July 3. “There’s definitely interest out there,” Hamilton tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan, noting that he’s regularly in touch with his agent about his future. It stands to reason, of course, that his representatives are in contact with the K.C. front office about Hamilton’s status.

As Hamilton further explains, Royals general manager Dayton Moore and the rest of the organization were professional and up-front with him about the fact that he’d lose playing time to Starling, giving him notice well in advance of the move: “I really appreciate it from [general manager] Dayton [Moore] all the way down. … I understand that that’s their guy. That’s part of the business.”

A trade of Hamilton seems likely and could come anytime between now and July 31. A move involving Gore might be even more immediate, though. The Royals designated Gore for assignment on July 12, which kicked off a seven-day period to either trade Gore, attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him. As The Athletic’s Alec Lewis writes (subscription required), even if Gore hits waivers and goes unclaimed, Moore will likely find a way to place the speedster with a contender. Following Gore’s DFA, Moore said to reporters: “I told Terrance yesterday that when we signed him, we said, ‘Look, Terrance, if we’re not in this thing, we’ll look to find you a spot with a contending team so you can do your thing in October.”

Both 28 years of age, Hamilton and Gore are cut from the same cloth as elite baserunners and defenders who offer minimal value at the plate. Hamilton carries far more MLB experience, having spent a half decade as the Reds’ primary center fielder. However, while he authored four straight seasons with at least 56 stolen bases, he’s never even approached a league-average campaign with the bat. A career .243/.297/.327 hitter, Hamilton has only managed a .217/.284/.271 slash in his first season away from Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. He’s earning $5.25MM in 2019, with $2.76MM yet to be paid out. And, as Flanagan adds, he could earn another another $1MM via plate-appearance-based incentives.

Gore, meanwhile, has never received any type of extended look in the big leagues. In fact, despite entering the 2019 season with 27 career stolen bases, Gore only had 19 plate appearances as a Major Leaguer. He’s been used almost exclusively as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement with the Royals and Cubs. To his credit, Gore batted .275/.362/.353 in 58 plate appearances this season — including a perfect 4-for-4 showing when attempting to bunt for a hit. He’s only a .221/.304/.271 hitter in Triple-A and a .257/.333/.277 hitter in Double-A, however, so it’s understandable that teams have been reluctant to give him a regular look in the game’s highest level.

Gore’s glove and wheels have frequently landed him on postseason rosters as a pinch-running specialist, but the elimination of August trades in 2019 means any team wishing to utilize him in that capacity will need to acquire him sooner than usual. Hamilton could land a similar role, but one would think that with his MLB experience, he’d be in line for a bit more playing time. The return in each deal will be minimal, but both players have the type of niche skill set that can impact both a playoff race and a postseason series. The greater question may be one of whether a contending team wants to carry either player for the final 10 weeks of the season. It’s possible, particularly with Gore, that other teams will show greater interest once he’s cleared waivers and can be acquired without immediately requiring a 40-man roster spot.

Royals Sign Billy Hamilton

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TODAY: The deal is official. Hamilton will receive a $4.25MM salary in 2019, with a $1MM buyout on a $7.5MM mutual option, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter). Hamilton’s incentives package is based upon plate appearances, beginning with his 325th and maxing out at 550.

YESTERDAY, 7:58pm: Hamilton and the Royals have agreed to the deal, Fancred’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).

11:02am: Saying that Hamilton’s defensive abilities make for a good fit at spacious Kauffman Stadium, Royals GM Dayton Moore confirmed that the club is down the line in talks with the free agent in an interview with MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link).

It’s a $5.25MM deal that includes up to $1MM in available incentives, per Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter).

9:57am: The Royals are “close” to striking a deal with free agent outfielder Billy Hamilton, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic (via Twitter). Terms of the prospective agreement are not yet known.

This potential match was reported recently and seems to have continued to progress over recent days. Hamilton, 28, was recently non-tendered by the Reds. He had projected to take home a $5.9MM salary in arbitration, a price tag deemed too steep by his longtime organization.

For the Royals, Hamilton would become the second player added under similar circumstances. The organization just nabbed infielder/outfielder Chris Owings after he was cut loose by the Diamondbacks. It seems the Kansas City club is willing to place some low-priced value bets on younger players whose time ran out with other teams.

Hamilton, certainly, is an interesting asset for any organization. Though the switch-hitter has never done much with the bat, especially against left-handed pitching, he’s an elite defender and baserunner. His skillset could benefit the Royals’ uncertain pitching staff while potentially leaving the team with a marketable mid-season trade piece.

It stands to reason that adding Hamilton would push out one of the Royals’ existing left-handed-hitting outfielders. Unless there’s a taker for the remainder of Alex Gordon’s contract, or the K.C. club does not wish to extend the audition of Brett Phillips, it could be that Brian Goodwin will ultimately be nudged out of the roster picture. The right-handed-hitting Jorge Soler is also a factor in the mix, though he could see time in the DH slot as well.

Royals Interested In Billy Hamilton

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The Royals are “looking hard” at recently non-tendered center fielder Billy Hamilton, tweets Rustin Dodd of The Athletic. MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan suggests interest on the Royals’ behalf in a column as well, noting that while GM Dayton Moore wouldn’t comment on any intrigue, there’s a general sense among Royals execs that the fleet-footed Hamilton’s skill set would fit Kauffman Stadium well.

Hamilton, who turned 28 in September, was arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter and had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.9MM in 2019 before the Reds cut him loose last week. While he’s long been an offensive liability, Hamilton is among the game’s elite defensive outfielders and perhaps the best baserunner in the game, having swiped 50+ bases each season from 2014-17 and another 34 last year. Over the past three seasons, Hamilton has also been worth 28 Defensive Runs Saved, notched a 26.5 Ultimate Zone Rating and, per Statcast, converted a staggering 52 outs more than could be expected of an average defensive outfielder (based on Statcast’s catch probability data).

None of that was enough to outweight Hamilton’s anemic bat, however, it seems. The switch-hitter has posted a sub-.300 OBP in four of his five full Major League seasons, and while he showed some strides at the plate in 2016, he followed up that year’s .321 OBP with a pair of seasons in which he mustered a combined .242/.299/.331 batting line. Clearly, moving from the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park to the cavernous Kauffman Stadium won’t do his virtually nonexistent power numbers any favors, but there are few in the game better suited than Hamilton to cover all of the ground in Kansas City’s expansive outfield.

At present, Kansas City’s outfield will feature Alex Gordon in left field in the final season of a four-year, $72MM contract. The other two spots are less certain, with Brett Phillips, Brian Goodwin, Jorge Bonifacio and newly signed Chris Owings among the options to fill them. Designated hitter Jorge Soler, too, could see occasional time in right field. While that group is riddled with offensive question marks, and Hamilton would only bring more of the same, it’s also true that an alignment of Gordon, Hamilton and Phillips would be a superlative defensive unit. Adding Hamilton to a lineup that already features Whit Merrifield, he of consecutive AL stolen base crowns, and young speedster Adalberto Mondesi would surely serve to frustrate opposing pitchers and catchers as the trio ran amok on the basepaths, too.

Reds To Non-Tender Billy Hamilton

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The Reds are planning to non-tender center fielder Billy Hamilton, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll become a free agent and will be eligible to sign with any team once the move is official.

Billy Hamilton | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Hamilton, who turned 28 in September, was arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter and had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.9MM in 2019. Instead, he’ll hit the open market in search of a new organization after spending the first 10 seasons of his professional career in the Cincinnati organization.

It’s a surprising bit of news for Hamilton even in spite of the defensive standout’s ongoing struggles at the plate. Reds owner Bob Castellini has previously gone on record to state that he hoped Hamilton would be a Red “forever” (Twitter link via Jerry Crasnick), and the organization has rebuffed trade interest in the speedster in each of the past two offseasons.

It seems, however, that the organization simply no longer feels that the benefit of Hamilton’s glove and premium baserunning skills are worth the lack of offense that has become synonymous with Hamilton’s name. Though he was long touted as one of the game’s premier prospects due to his 80-grade speed, Hamilton has mustered just a .244/.297/.332 batting line in five seasons since becoming a regular with Cincinnati back in 2014. That production is even more questionable when considering the fact that Hamilton plays his home games in Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, which is one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly settings; both OPS+ and wRC+ indicate that when adjusting for that hitter-friendly home park, Hamilton’s offense has been a full 30 percent worse than that of a league-average hitter.

To his credit, Hamilton has stolen more than 50 bases on four different occasions and, even in a “down” year in that regard, swiped 34 bags last season. He’s also delivered a whopping 51 Defensive Runs Saved in Center Field, which is largely backed up by a +45.5 Ultimate Zone Rating in his big league career. Statcast’s newest outfield defensive metric, Outs Above Average, only goes back three seasons but still feels that Hamilton has recorded a staggering 52 outs more than a league-average center fielder would generate, based on catch probability data.

At 28 years of age, it seems unlikely that Hamilton will ever develop into a bona fide offensive threat, though it’s certainly not out of the question that a change of scenery could bring about some improvement at the plate. He’ll likely have no shortage of interested teams inquire with his representatives at Wasserman, and the sheer extent of his baserunning and defensive value makes him a likely candidate to land a big league deal elsewhere.

For the Reds, the move opens up roughly $6MM of payroll next season — a relatively small but not insignificant sum as the organization aggressively pursues rotation upgrades. Cincinnati is reportedly even intrigued by top-of-the-market options, most recently being tied to Dallas Keuchel, though it remains to be seen if they can convince a top-tier name to sign on to pitch at Great American Ball Park for a club that hasn’t had a winning season since 2013. Certainly, the added payroll space can’t hurt.

Of course, the Reds now also have a need in center field that may need to go outside the organization to fill. There’s been talk of moving top prospect Nick Senzel to the outfield, though injuries limited the former No. 2 overall pick to 44 games in 2018 and his pro experience has come exclusively in the infield. Scott Schebler has a bit of experience in center field but has traditionally been more of a corner option, while Jesse Winker has been regarded primarily as a left fielder himself. Phil Ervin and Jose Siri represent other options, but given that the Reds hope to take a step toward being more competitive in 2019, it seems likely that they’ll pursue a more established option.

Reds To Pull Billy Hamilton Off Revocable Waivers

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Following up on his statement that Matt Harvey will remain in Cincinnati, Reds general manager Nick Krall added that he expects Billy Hamilton to remain with the team as well (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Hamilton, like Harvey, had been claimed on revocable waivers and could’ve been traded to the claiming team — the identity of which remains unreported.

Unlike Harvey, however, Hamilton is controllable beyond the 2018 season. He’s eligible for arbitration one last time this winter and figures to receive a raise on his current $4.6MM salary. Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams suggested earlier this summer that his team wasn’t all that interested in moving pieces controlled beyond the current season, and the decision to retain Hamilton meshes with that line of thinking.

Hamilton, 27, would’ve been an ideal pickup for a contender seeking a defense/baserunning upgrade in advance of the upcoming Sept. 1 roster expansion. It’s not uncommon for contending clubs to carry pinch-running/base-stealing/defensive specialists through the month of September and into the month of October (e.g. Terrance Gore and the Royals in 2014-15), and no one in baseball has more steals than Hamilton’s 206 dating back to 2015. Hamilton has also posted sterling defensive marks in that time, including 37 Defensive Runs Saved and a 33.1 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Rather than joining a new team for the stretch run, it seems that Hamilton will instead remain with the Reds into the 2019 season (barring an appealing trade offer this winter). While he’s never developed any real semblance of on-base skills, Hamilton has nonetheless delivered consistent value on the basepaths and in the field which have helped to overcome his deficiencies at the plate. He’s a career .246/.299/.332 hitter through 2624 plate appearances, and his 2018 results (.239/.304/.321) are more or less in line with those career marks.

Hamilton is a known favorite of Reds owner Bob Castellini, who has said in the past that he hopes Hamilton will spend his entire career in Cincinnati (Twitter link via ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick). Castellini’s affinity for Harvey reportedly served as a factor in the team’s decision not to trade him, and it seems possible that the same is true with regard to Hamilton.

Matt Harvey, Billy Hamilton Claimed On Revocable Waivers By Unknown Teams

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Aug. 23: Billy Hamilton has also been claimed by an unknown club, tweets Murray. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that a trade involving Hamilton is “unlikely,” citing the fact that Hamilton is controlled through next season as the reasoning behind that thinking for the Reds.

The 27-year-old Hamilton is having a miserable season at the plate, hitting .236/.302/.317 through 440 plate appearances and is receiving less playing time than he has at any point in his big league career. But he’s still providing plenty of value on the basepaths and elite defense in center field while playing on an affordable $4.6MM salary. He’d be a great piece for a contending club to add to its bench in September and into the postseason, but the Reds have indicated in the past that they’re not keen on selling off pieces for the 2019 season when they aim to be competitive despite a largely unsettled rotation picture.

Aug. 22, 9:50pm: The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney tweets that the Cubs are not the team that claimed Harvey.

6:57pm: Reds right-hander Matt Harvey has been claimed off revocable trade waivers by an unknown club, per Robert Murray and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (Twitter link). It’s unclear when the claim was placed, but the claiming team would have 48 hours to work out a trade with the Reds. If no deal is reached, the Reds will have the option of either pulling Harvey back off waivers or merely letting him and the remainder of his salary go to the new team.

Harvey, 29, ranked checked in at No. 12 on MLBTR’s latest ranking of the top 20 remaining August trade candidates. He’s made 17 starts in Cincinnati since being flipped there by the Mets in exchange for Devin Mesoraco back in May. He’s had a few hiccups along the way, but Harvey has made significant gains in terms of velocity, swinging-strike rate and his chase rate on pitches out of the zone. Overall, he’s registered a 4.28 ERA with 6.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.39 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 90 1/3 innings with the Reds.

Given that Harvey is a free agent at season’s end, there’s little reason to believe he’d be claimed by any non-contending club. Revocable waiver priority is league-specific and ordered from worst record to best record, meaning Harvey would have to go unclaimed by every NL team in order to reach an AL club. The Dodgers represent the first realistic contender that would have the ability to claim Harvey in the National League — assuming that the Pirates, Nats and Giants are too far gone to consider adding pieces.

Harvey isn’t eligible to receive a qualifying offer after changing hands midseason (and wouldn’t be a candidate to receive one anyhow), so there’s plenty of incentive for the Reds to get a deal done. Even if the Cincinnati front office hopes to retain Harvey, there’d still be a strong case to flip him for even a modest minor league return and then try to hammer out a new deal when Harvey reaches the open market.

Central Notes: Martin, Cutch, Bucs, Hamilton, Carpenter

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The Indians announced today that recently acquired center fielder Leonys Martin is headed to the 10-day DL owing to a stomach ailment. It’s unclear at this point how long he’ll be sidelined, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian adds on Twitter. The club will surely hope the issue resolves itself in short order, as Martin is expected to play a significant role in the team’s outfield rotation down the stretch and into the postseason. The 30-year-old had been off to a productive start in his first six games in Cleveland.

Here’s more from the central divisions …

  • Bob Nightengale of USA Today took an interesting angle on the Pirates’ deadline moves recently, discussing them with former star Andrew McCutchen. The veteran outfielder, who was dealt to the Giants in the winter, said he was surprised that the Pittsburgh organization decided that this was the summer to push hard for improvements. It’s an interesting story, particularly for fans of these two clubs, in no small part because McCutchen discusses the feeling within the clubhouse of going through the trade deadline. Referring to his past experiences with the Bucs, he explained: “We felt we had a good team to compete, but then you see other teams making those moves, getting the key pieces to their team to make them stronger, and you feel like, “Dang, we’ve got to do something, too.'”
  • In a recent post with notes on several ballclubs, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic presents one potential explanation for the timing of the Pirates’ moves. (Subscription link.) He writes that an executive with another team posits that the acquisitions of Chris Archer and Keone Kela were driven in some part by the team’s slumping attendance. That’s not the case, per president Frank Coonelly, who says instead the swaps were made out of a “desire to improve the club for this 2018 stretch run and for the next several years.” Coonelly also cited prospect depth as a factor that enabled the maneuvers. That certainly seems to be a fair explanation, but there’s also little doubt that the team has an eye on the bottom line as well. As Rosenthal writes, perhaps there’s some evidence here of “the power of a disgruntled fan base to effect change.”
  • As Rosenthal further reports in that post, the Reds’ decisionmaking on center fielder Billy Hamilton continues to be influenced by the views of owner Bob Castellini, who has gone on record as a proponent of the exceedingly speedy but light-hitting player. Hamilton didn’t feature as a particularly likely August trade candidate regardless, though perhaps there’s some hypothetical plausibility to such a scenario. But the report suggests the organization may still be rather reluctant to part with the 27-year-old, who is set to enter his final season of arbitration eligibility after earning $4.6MM this year. Perhaps there’s still a way the front office can make this all work in a sensible manner. Hamilton, after all, is a useful MLB player — he’s a great defender and baserunner, and has at least been somewhat better historically against right-handed pitching — who is simply miscast in an everyday role. He could still make sense on what’s hoped to be a competitive 2019 roster, at least if the organization makes a supplemental addition in center and commits to leaning less heavily on Hamilton.
  • It seems like it was just yesterday we were preaching patience in response to chat questions from irate Cardinals fans about Matt Carpenter’s struggles. But a turnaround of this magnitude remains a surprise. As things stand, he’s among the most productive hitters in baseball — even including his meager opening performance — with a .281/.393/.598 slash and 31 home runs through 476 plate appearances. It’s a fascinating situation for a variety of reasons, to be sure. Carpenter himself evidently feels that way, too, as MLB.com’s Joe Trezza tweets. “It’s just not who I am,” says the 32-year-old Carpenter of his exploits. “It’s not who I was. It’s not the hitter I’ve ever been. I’m developing into somebody I’ve never dreamt of or tried to be like. I don’t have an explanation for it.”

Cafardo’s Latest: Tribe, Cubs, Dodgers, Bucs

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Blue Jays outfielder Curtis Granderson, Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton and Marlins utilityman Derek Dietrich are on the Indians’ “radar”, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Either Granderson or Hamilton would add a much-needed upgrade to Cleveland’s outfield, which lost Tyler Naquin to the disabled list Saturday, while Dietrich may be able to help both at the keystone and in the outfield. Dietrich has spent the majority of his career at second base, but the 29-year-old – who happens to be a Cleveland native – has amassed 84 appearances in left field this season. Dietrich’s amid his best offensive season, having hit .283/.348/.454 with 13 home runs in 388 plate appearances.

More from Cafardo…

  • The Cubs and Rangers have already made a pair of trades in recent weeks, as Chicago acquired both Jesse Chavez and Cole Hamels from Texas. That may not be the end of the two teams’ dealings, though, with Cafardo writing that the Cubs are “looking at” Rangers relievers Jake Diekman and Keone Kela.
  • Along with the previously reported Brad Brach, the Dodgers have been scouting Tigers reliever Shane Greene, according to Cafardo. The 29-year-old Greene has pitched to a 4.19 ERA/3.98 ERA with 9.63 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 43.5 percent groundball rate in 43 innings this season. He’s on a meager salary this year ($1.95MM) and scheduled to go through arbitration one more time.
  • The resurgent Pirates seem intent on addressing their bullpen, as they’ve targeted both Kela (previously reported) and Brach to bolster their relief corps, per Cafardo. Brach, a 32-year-old who will be a free agent at season’s end, has logged a 4.85 ERA/4.01 FIP with 8.77 K/9, 4.38 BB/9 and a 46.5 percent groundball rate in 39 innings.

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