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Seven Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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All seven players who received a $20.325MM qualifying offer this year have rejected it, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deadline for a decision is today at 3 pm Central but it seems all of Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell have already made up their minds.

There wasn’t much drama with any of these decisions, as all seven were considered locks to reject and still collect sizeable free agent contracts. On MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents, six of the seven player were predicted to get a nine-figure deal in the coming months. The only exception was Gray, who was limited by his 34 years of age to a prediction of $90MM over four years. The players had one week to gauge the market after receiving those QOs and it doesn’t seem any of them got any sense that accepting the one-year deal was a wise course of action.

There would have been more drama if some borderline candidates had been issued QOs, but it was a fairly conservative group this winter. Last year, 12 players received QOs and Martín Pérez and Joc Pederson eventually accepted. But none of this year’s on-the-cusp players got the offer, with each of Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier heading into free agency unencumbered.

Each of the players who received and rejected the QO will now net their former club draft pick compensation in the event they sign elsewhere this winter. The value of that compensation will depend upon whether the club received revenue sharing or paid the competitive balance tax in 2023. The signing club would also be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a reduction of international bonus pool space, with the penalty also dependant on revenue sharing and CBT status.

Padres Exploring Scott Barlow Trades

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The Padres are “actively trying to move” right-hander Scott Barlow in trade talks with other teams, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.  The arbitration-eligible Barlow is projected to earn $7.1MM in 2024, and with Friday’s non-tender deadline looming, the Friars are seeing what they can get for the reliever before having to make a decision on his roster status.

Barlow didn’t make MLBTR’s recent list of non-tender candidates, though it stands to reason that San Diego might consider cutting the 30-year-old entirely if they can’t find an acceptable trade.  While losing Barlow for nothing is obviously not an ideal outcome for the team, it would represent some noteworthy savings for a Padres club that is reportedly aiming to get their payroll to around the $200MM range in 2024, down from $249MM last season.  The $7.1MM price point could also be high for other teams, yet non-tendering Barlow altogether is still a somewhat unlikely outcome given the probable interest in his services, not to mention the fact that Padres could still shop him after Friday.

This will be Barlow’s third and final trip through the arbitration process before hitting free agency next winter, and the righty’s salaries have been elevated by the saves accumulated when he was the Royals’ closer in 2021-22.  Barlow posted a 2.30 ERA, 40 saves (in 50 chances), a 28.2% strikeout rate, and 8.4% walk rate over 148 2/3 innings in those two seasons, earning a reputation as one of baseball’s more underrated relievers.  It also made him a popular trade candidate, though Barlow wasn’t actually dealt until Kansas City sent him to San Diego at the last trade deadline, and a case can be made that the Royals didn’t sell at the high point of Barlow’s value.

Over 38 2/3 innings with K.C. in 2023, Barlow’s ERA spiked to 5.35, in large part due to a walk rate that surged to 12.5%.  The downturn cost Barlow his closer’s job, and the Padres’ trade package of pitching prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams is certainly less than what the Royals would’ve received had they moved Barlow last offseason.  The move to San Diego seemed to turn Barlow’s fortunes around, as he cut back on the walks and delivered a 3.07 ERA over 29 1/3 frames in a Friars uniform.

All in all, Barlow finished with a 4.37 ERA over 68 total innings in 2023, with a 3.94 SIERA and a pretty impressive overall set of Statcast numbers, except for his mediocre walk rate.  Concerns over his control still exist, and Barlow’s average fastball velocity has dropped from 95.4mph in 2021 to 93.1mph in 2023, though his straight four-seamer has become only his third-most prominent pitch over the last two seasons.  Still, teams eager for bullpen help could certainly have interest in Barlow’s services, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a trade completed prior to Friday.

If Barlow was moved, of course, it would leave another hole in the Padres’ bullpen.  Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, and Luis Garcia are all free agents, leaving Robert Suarez as the top closing option and Barlow as the top candidate for set-up work.  The Padres could perhaps pivot to exploring only lower-cost options on the reliever market, though that puts extra pressure on the front office to make up those lost innings with some hidden-gem type of acquisitions.

Phil Nevin Reportedly A Finalist For Padres' Managerial Role

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The Padres reportedly have former Angels manager Phil Nevin among the finalists for their managerial position, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Nevin, 52, was hired as third base coach in Anaheim prior to the 2022 season but became the club’s interim manager early in June of that year following the firing of Joe Maddon. Nevin continued as the club’s interim manager for the remainder of the season and the club decided to retain him in the role for 2023. Ultimately, however, the sides parted ways at the conclusion of the regular season. Anaheim found their replacement for Nevin last week, hiring Ron Washington away from his role as third base coach for the Braves.

Upon former Padres manager Bob Melvin’s departure to manage the division rival Giants, Nevin quickly became a candidate linked to San Diego’s managerial vacancy. Reports indicated late last week that Nevin had interviewed with the Padres for the role, and now Morosi’s report places Nevin as a potential finalist for the position. That being said, Nevin is far from the only finalist with a chance to be San Diego’s next manager. A pair of internal candidates in bench coach Ryan Flaherty and senior advisor Mike Shildt interviewed for the position shortly after Melvin’s departure and have long been seen as likely favorites to ultimately land the role. Shildt, in particular, has been linked to the role very frequently in recent weeks as an experienced skipper with four seasons at the helm of the Cardinals under his belt.

Brewers Have Interest In Mike Shildt For Managerial Vacancy

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Mike Shildt is considered one of the favorites to be the Padres’ next manager, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that if San Diego doesn’t make the hire, the Brewers would have interest in Shildt for their own managerial vacancy. Shildt and bench coach Ryan Flaherty are thought to be the two top candidates in San Diego, though there is a bit of fluidity to the situation.  Shildt, Flaherty, and Angels infield coach Benji Gil were thought to be the final three (Carlos Mendoza was also a finalist before he was hired by the Mets) candidates, but the Padres have since interviewed Phil Nevin and also reportedly have some interest in ex-Cubs skipper David Ross.

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes that “Padres are expected to” make their decision on a new manager by the middle of the week, so the Brewers should know soon about Shildt’s availability.  The Brew Crew didn’t want to fully explore other candidates until Craig Counsell had made his decision, but after Counsell shocked the baseball world by supplanting Ross as the Cubs’ dugout boss, the Brewers now have a preliminary candidate list that included six names.  Joe Espada was on the list but has now been hired by the Astros as their new manager, so Shildt’s inclusion might keep the field at six for now.  Milwaukee has plenty of intra-division familiarity with Shildt, as he managed the Cardinals from 2018-21 before joining the Padres in an advisory role.

Giants Add Ryan Christenson, Pat Burrell To Coaching Staff

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The Giants announced some additions to their coaching staff in year one under Bob Melvin. Longtime Melvin lieutenant Ryan Christenson joins as bench coach, while former MLB outfielder Pat Burrell is taking over as hitting coach. Matt Williams is also leaving the Padres to take over as third base coach.

Incumbent hitting coach Justin Viele will retain his title, tweets Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. He and Burrell are co-hitting coaches, while Pedro Guerrero is returning as an assistant hitting coach. According to Pavlovic, assistant hitting coach Dustin Lind will not be back in 2024.

San Francisco also announced a few holdovers from last year’s group. Mark Hallberg, Alyssa Nakken, J.P. Martinez and Taria Uematsu are all returning to the staff. Hallberg is moving across the diamond from third base to first base coach. Martinez remains an assistant pitching coach, while Nakken and Uematsu are assistant coaches.

None of the additions are surprising, as all three had been rumored to join the staff. Christenson’s strong relationship with Melvin has led him from Oakland to San Diego and back to the Bay Area. He worked as a bench coach in Oakland and San Diego and spent this year as the associate manager for the Friars.

Burrell, a former number one overall pick, was a two-time World Series winner during his 12-year MLB career. The second of those titles came in San Francisco, where he closed his playing days in 2010 and ’11. Burrell hit .253/.361/.472 with just under 300 home runs in the big leagues. The Miami product has coached in the Giants’ minor league ranks going back to 2020.

Williams, of course, had an excellent playing career in his own right. The five-time All-Star got a managerial job with the Nationals in 2014. He led Washington to a 96-win season to earn the NL Manager of the Year award in his first season. After the team went 83-79 during his second year at the helm, the Nationals dismissed him and hired Dusty Baker. Williams has subsequently spent time on the Diamondbacks, A’s and Padres staffs (overlapping with Melvin in the latter two places) and managed for two seasons in South Korea.

There’s still more to come on the coaching front in San Francisco. The team has not announced the future for pitching coach Andrew Bailey, who has reportedly considered leaving to take a position closer to his family on the East Coast.

Padres Re-Sign Drew Carlton To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have re-signed right-hander Drew Carlton to a minor league deal, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He will presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training and compete for a roster spot.

Carlton, now 28, came up through the Tigers’ system but this is the second year in a row that he’s landed with the Friars on a minor league pact. He was added to the roster in May and made 11 appearances, tossing 20 2/3 innings with a 4.35 ERA. His 21.2% strikeout rate was a bit below average but his 7.1% walk rate and 43.9% ground ball rate were both a bit better than par.

He landed on the injured list due to right elbow inflammation at the start of July and never made it back. He started a rehab assignment in August but only made three appearances in the minors that month. The club outrighted him off the roster last week as the offseason was beginning, as the IL goes away from five days after the World Series until Spring Training. The current health of his elbow isn’t publicly known but the Padres felt good enough about it to bring him back for another year.

The San Diego bullpen saw significant pieces like Josh Hader and Nick Martinez reach free agency last week. They could replenish that group over the offseason but may have diminished funds to work with, perhaps making depth signings a bit more important. If Carlton cracks the roster, he’s still optionable and has just over a year of service time, meaning he has the potential to serve as a long-term depth piece with roster flexibility.

Shohei Ohtani Rumors: GM Meetings Edition

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The offseason kicked into gear this week with the General Manager Meetings taking place in Scottsdale, Arizona. Though the meetings were eventually ended early due to a virus circling the bases of the baseball world, there was still plenty of reporting about how markets are shaping up for various clubs and players. The big star of the winter is set to be Shohei Ohtani but only dribs and drabs of information have come out relating to him so far, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounding up some of the details.

Ohtani is the top free agent available, head and shoulders above the rest. The two-way superstar has been the best player in baseball of late, putting together a three-year run of excellence that is perhaps the greatest the sport has ever seen. He’s hit 124 home runs, stolen 57 bases and slashed .277/.379/.585 in that time for a wRC+ of 157. He’s also tossed 428 1/3 innings with a 2.84 earned run average. Elbow surgery will keep him from pitching in 2024 but he will still hit, and will presumably do all he can to return to the mound in 2025 and beyond.

There has never been a player like this or a free agent like this, which puts him center stage. It has been assumed by many that he is most likely to land with a traditional big spending club such as the Dodgers, but he’s such a massive superstar that it’s possible many dark horse teams get into the mix. Marketing opportunities, both in North America and around the world, should offset some of the money it takes to land him. Those factors, along with his unprecedented talents, could open the door to unlikely suitors. “No one knows where he’s going to end up,’’ Astros general manager Dana Brown said to Nightengale. “And I think that’s exciting for the game. You just don’t know what’s going to happen. I think there may be a wild card team out there that’s going to surface. These teams can just come out of nowhere.” Indeed, any club that is not interested in Ohtani would be more noteworthy than a club that is.

But little information was to be had at the meetings, as neither Ohtani nor his agent Nez Balelo were present. Many baseball decision makers hemmed and hawed when directly asked about their interest in Ohtani, many commenting on his immense talent while adding that any club would be happy to have him. Perhaps the most absurd instance of ducking the question came from Mariners’ president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, when speaking with Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. When asked about how he would value such a unique player, he said merely “I don’t know.” When asked if he would need to figure out an answer, “Presumably so” was the response.

With various smokescreens coming from different directions, there is little left to do but try to read the tea leaves. Heyman says the Dodgers are considered the favorite because of their payroll space, track record of on-field success and Ohtani’s reported fondness for Southern California. But he also adds that the Angels want a reunion and the Padres are interested as well. The latter club is reportedly trying to figure out whether to trade or extend Juan Soto, with Heyman adding that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has little interest in a trade. However, if they can successfully sign Ohtani, that could change.

He adds that the Yankees and Mets will check in but believe Ohtani is reluctant to live in New York. Heyman admits that he’s basing that on Ohtani’s initial arrival in North America six years ago, when he was reportedly choosing between the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, Giants, Mariners and Cubs, mostly West Coast teams and none in New York. At that time, he was subject to the amateur bonus pool system and wasn’t going to get more than a few million bucks regardless of where he signed, so having a geographical preference didn’t hurt him financially. Now it would be in his best interest to at least pretend he’s open to signing anywhere, in order to have more suitors and boost his bidding. Whether he privately has a strong geographic preference right now is unknown.

The Cubs were the primary exception to the Western preference last time around and it seems they are hoping that Ohtani still thinks of them fondly. Nightengale lists them as a serious contender for Ohtani and adds that “several GMs” are saying that the Cubs “may be” the most aggressive team on Ohtani. He also adds that the Rangers are considered a serious contender, which isn’t surprising after their World Series win that was fuelled by several notable free agent signings in recent years.

As mentioned, the Angels would like a reunion and shouldn’t be counted out. “I think this is a very desirable place to play,’’ Minasian said to Nightengale. “It’s in a great part of the country. We have an outstanding fan base. The players that have played here since I’ve been here, have been really, really positive with their experiences. So, with anybody on the market, I think we have a chance.”

Though the Angels haven’t had much success on the field lately, they have done plenty of big deals under owner Arte Moreno. That includes a $360MM extension for Mike Trout, while Albert Pujols and Anthony Rendon got $254MM and $245MM in free agency, respectively. Re-signing Ohtani will likely require them to go beyond that stratosphere and into the mesosphere, but there’s at least some precedent there. “I wouldn’t put anything past,’’ Minasian said. “I think it’s something that for the right opportunities, ownership is all about winning. …We’ll do what we can to make the team as good as we can.’’

John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote this week about the interest of the Giants, talking to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. “We’ve got a good amount of payroll flexibility,” Zaidi said, “so anybody that we think can be an impact player for us, even on a long-term deal, we’re going to be looking at.” Daniel Kramer of MLB.com covered Ohtani from the Mariners’ perspective, highlighting that Dipoto was much more vocal in his interest back when Ohtani was first coming over in 2017. There are likely a dozen other clubs working on their overtures to Ohtani at this very moment.

How it will all play out and on what timeline remains to be seen. Ohtani will likely want to talk teams about things beyond just money, such as how long they are willing to let him try pitching, what they would do if/when he can no longer take the mound, etc. Those conversations may take a few weeks and it’s been speculated that he may be signed by the Winter Meetings in the first week of December, but there are still plenty of unknowns about perhaps the most fascinating free agent of all-time.

Padres Interview Phil Nevin In Managerial Search

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The Padres interviewed former Angels manager Phil Nevin yesterday, report Dennis Lin and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic (X link). San Diego continues to search for Bob Melvin’s replacement in the dugout.

Nevin managed a season and a half in Anaheim. He took over on an interim basis when the Angels dismissed Joe Maddon in June 2022. The Halos signed Nevin to a one-year extension at the beginning of last offseason. After a second consecutive 73-89 finish, the Angels declined an option to retain him for 2024. They tabbed Ron Washington as their new skipper yesterday.

In addition to that managerial stint in Orange County, Nevin has a long track record as a coach. He spent a year as the third base coach for the Giants, held the same position with the Yankees for five seasons, and was the Halos’ third base coach before replacing Maddon. The Fullerton product has plenty of ties to the San Diego organization. He played for the Padres between 1999-2005, twice securing down-ballot MVP votes during that run.

While Nevin’s interview indicates he’s a legitimate candidate for the San Diego job, he may be behind a pair of internal options. Bench coach Ryan Flaherty and senior advisor Mike Shildt interviewed early in the process. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this evening that Shildt is the favorite for the position.

A.J. Preller, Scott Boras Address Juan Soto’s Future

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Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and renowned agent Scott Boras each conducted media sessions this afternoon at the GM Meetings. Unsurprisingly, Juan Soto’s future was a point of discussion in both pressers.

As he did shortly after the regular season concluded, Preller suggested the Padres’ hope is to work out a long-term extension (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). At the same time, he didn’t rule out the possibility of a trade if no deal came together. “Juan long-term [versus] Juan on a one-year deal, that brings different dynamics,” Preller acknowledged. “We understand what that means for our roster both short-term and long-term.”

With Soto a year from free agency and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for what would be a record $33MM arbitration salary next season, an extension will be challenging. Still, the Friars are seeking to compete in 2024. Trading Soto would clear payroll room that could be reallocated to plugging multiple holes in the rotation but would obviously subtract one of the game’s top hitters from the lineup.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote this evening that the Friars are likely to consider trade possibilities this offseason. That’s well shy of saying a move is probable, of course, and Cassavell notes that many within the organization understandably prefer to hold onto the star outfielder.

Boras confirmed that the Padres have signaled a willingness to retain Soto. “(I) met with the Padres, they laid out their plan for next year which obviously included a lineup that definitely includes Juan Soto,” the agent told reporters. “He’s their one .900 OPS player. They’re looking for more left-handed bats, rather than less.”

That doesn’t foreclose a trade, although it’s clear the Padres will continue to speak with Boras about extension scenarios before seriously considering moving him. “We’re going to have conversations with Scott and his group about what it looks like long-term,” Preller said (via Cassavell). “Our position-player team, we think, is very strong. Keeping that group together, adding to the pitching — that’s one plan.“

Seven Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Those players are:

Previous reports had already indicated that Teoscar Hernández, Mitch Garver, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins had not received the QO. The same is true of Jorge Soler and longer-shot candidates like Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier.

The QO is valued at $20.325MM this offseason. Players have until next Tuesday to decide whether to accept. The seven players who were tagged all seemed virtual locks to both receive and decline it. It’s hard to envision anyone in this group taking a one-year pact.

Indeed, the more surprising aspect of this year’s class were the number of players who were not qualified. Last winter, 14 players were tagged with the QO. Borderline cases Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez wound up accepting. Teams were far more risk-averse this winter, shying away from the potential lofty commitment for all but the market’s top options.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

With QO decisions now made, every free agent is allowed to begin negotiations with other teams. The five-day window of exclusive negotiation with their incumbent club is over. If these players sign elsewhere, their teams would be entitled to compensation.

The Twins, as a revenue sharing recipient, stand to receive the greatest compensation. Assuming Gray beats a $50MM guarantee (a good bet), Minnesota’s compensatory pick would fall after the first round in next year’s draft. The Cubs, as a team that neither receives sharing nor paid the luxury tax, would land a choice that falls between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round for Bellinger’s departure.

San Diego, Toronto and Philadelphia all surpassed the CBT threshold this year. They’d therefore receive the lowest compensation — a draft choice between Rounds 4 and 5. The Angels finished the season right on the border of the $233MM threshold and don’t yet know whether they paid the tax. As a result, they’re still awaiting word on whether they’d land the pick before the third round or after the fourth if Ohtani heads elsewhere.

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