Central Notes: Rizzo, Mondesi, Reds, Cardinals
Cubs cornerstone Anthony Rizzo is scheduled to become a free agent next offseason, but the three-time All-Star first baseman said Friday he’s “optimistic” about reaching an extension with the club, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com tweets. Rizzo suggested he’d like to get it done by Opening Day, which doesn’t leave much time for the two sides to hammer out a deal. But there’s plenty of goodwill between the Cubs and Rizzo, who helped them to their first World Series title in 108 years in 2016 and has been a gem for the franchise on and off the field. Unfortunately for Rizzo, he seems to be vying for an extension at an inopportune time, as the 31-year-old recorded an uncharacteristically mediocre line of .222/.342/.414 with 11 home runs in 243 trips to the plate in 2020.
- The Royals and shortstop Adalberto Mondesi have recently discussed an extension, Robert Murray of FanSided reports, but it doesn’t seem as if an agreement is imminent. A source told Murray there’s “a lot to work through” in order for a deal to come together for Mondesi, who is only in the first of three arbitration-controlled years. The 25-year-old will earn $2.525MM this season after slashing .256/.294/.416 with six home runs and a major league-leading 24 stolen bases over 233 plate appearances in 2020.
- With right-hander Miles Mikolas out for the beginning of the regular season, fellow righty John Gant is in line to open 2021 as the Cardinals’ No. 5 starter, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Daniel Ponce de Leon, Jake Woodford and Johan Oviedo are still competing for the role, but Gant is the favorite to join Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Kwang Hyun Kim and Carlos Martinez in their rotation, per Goold. Gant, 28, hasn’t started a game since 2018, though he has put up useful numbers from both the St. Louis rotation and bullpen.
- After the Reds added infielder Jonathan India and left-hander Brandon Finnegan to their major league spring roster on Friday, manager David Bell told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com and other reporters that “they’re officially” in the running to make the team. India, the fifth overall pick in the 2018 draft, reached the Double-A level in 2019 and batted .270/.414/.378 with three homers, four steals and almost as many unintentional walks (22) as strikeouts (26). Finnegan, once a top 100 prospect, appeared with the Reds in each season from 2015-18, but shoulder problems had a negative effect on him during that stretch. He put up a 7.40 ERA with 15 unintentional walks and 14 strikeouts over 20 2/3 frames in his most recent MLB season.
Miles Mikolas Shut Down For Seven To Ten Days
March 12: Mikolas won’t throw for the next seven to ten days, Mozeliak tells Goold. An MRI taken of his right shoulder did not reveal any structural issues but did show some inflammation. Mikolas will undergo further testing in the coming days once the inflammation subsides a bit.
March 11: Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas has been slowed by shoulder troubles thus far this spring, but the club received generally positive results after a wave of imaging yesterday, it seems. Manager Mike Shildt told reporters this morning that Wednesday’s wave of tests did not reveal any structural damage in Mikolas’ shoulder or elsewhere in his arm (Twitter link via Rob Rains of StlSportsPage.com). Shildt described the results as “favorable,” but he’ll also be backed off his throwing program for the time being.
It’s unclear at this point just when Mikolas will be ready to return to the mound. The Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold wrote yesterday that the club does not expect Mikolas to be ready to begin the regular season in the rotation, which would create some uncertainty at the back of the rotation early in the year. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has already indicated that touted but oft-injured righty Alex Reyes will be used as a multi-inning piece out of the bullpen, with a target of around 100 innings hopefully on the docket.
At present, the Cardinals’ top three options are set with Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim all locked in. Righty Carlos Martinez has oscillated between starter and reliever over the course of his five-year contract extension, but given this year’s $11MM salary and the growing need for starters, it seems likely he’ll open the year in the rotation as well.
The Cards have plenty of depth options in their ranks. Righty Daniel Ponce de Leon has fared better as a reliever in his limited big league career to this point, but he does have 20 serviceable MLB starts under his belt. Fellow right-hander John Gant was used exclusively out of the ‘pen in 2019-20 but also made 19 starts for the Cardinals in 2018 and threw well in that showing. Lefty Genesis Cabrera has been used primarily as a reliever in the Majors over the past two seasons but has almost exclusively started as a minor leaguer. Prospects Johan Oviedo and Jake Woodford both made their Major League debuts in 2020 as well.
It wouldn’t be a shock if the Cardinals looked into some additional starting options — they reportedly had some degree of interest in Jake Odorizzi — though the in-house depth they have should be able to hold things down as long as Mikolas isn’t in line for a significant absence. If the Cardinals do want to add some veteran depth, there are still a few free agents of note on the market, including Rick Porcello, Trevor Cahill and Homer Bailey. Others could hit the market in the coming weeks as veterans exercise opt-out provisions in non-roster deals around the league, and at least a handful of depth options figure to hit waivers as teams continue to inch closer to setting Opening Day rosters.
NL Injury Notes: Soroka, Mikolas, Kelly, Martinez
Mike Soroka threw two innings in “simulated game conditions” this morning, reports David O’Brien of the Athletic. That marks a key milestone in the 23-year-old’s recovery from the ruptured Achilles that ended his 2020 season last August. It remains unclear precisely when Soroka will be ready to pitch this year, although O’Brien notes there has been “widespread speculation” of a late April or early May return. Soroka has a 2.86 ERA/4.33 SIERA over his first 214 big league innings.
The latest on some other health situations around the National League:
- Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas had been expected to throw a bullpen session today, but that’ll be pushed back to Wednesday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat were among those to note. Manager Mike Shildt said the right-hander feels good but wouldn’t guarantee Mikolas will be ready for Opening Day. Mikolas missed the entire 2020 season after undergoing surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his forearm, but the current issue is a “creaky” shoulder, notes Zachary Silver of MLB.com.
- Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly looks unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). The right-hander has been dealing with shoulder soreness, but he has been able to throw a few bullpen sessions recently, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. The hard-throwing Kelly spent a month on the injured list last season with shoulder inflammation.
- José Martínez has a “twisted left knee” after colliding with an umpire during today’s Spring Training contest, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com was among those to report. He’ll likely go for an MRI tomorrow. The Mets signed the 32-year-old Martínez this winter after he struggled through a down 2020 season split between the Rays and Cubs. A significant injury would be a blow to his chances of earning a backup first base/corner outfield role this spring.
MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The NL Central?
The National League Central looks as if it will be the most wide-open division in Major League Baseball when the regular season opens in a few weeks. Minus the Pirates, who figure to contend for the worst record in the league this year, it appears anyone could take the Central. The Cubs, Cardinals, Reds and Brewers were all playoff teams in 2020, and only five games separated the division winner (Chicago) from the fourth-place finisher (Milwaukee). This past offseason would have been an opportune time for any of the Central’s teams to establish itself as the clear front-runner, but it doesn’t appear anyone separated itself from the pack.
The Cardinals made the biggest move in the division over the winter when they acquired third baseman Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. But other than that and re-signing right-hander Adam Wainwright and catcher Yadier Molina, they were pretty quiet.
The Cubs worsened their rotation when they traded away 2020 NL Cy Young-contending starter Yu Darvish to the Padres in a deal that netted them fellow righty Zach Davies. They also reunited with righty Jake Arrieta, who once won a Cy Young in their uniform but has since devolved into a back-end starter, and swapped out one flawed corner outfielder (Kyle Schwarber) for another (Joc Pederson).
The Reds said goodbye to last year’s Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer, who signed with the Dodgers. They also cut ties with two accomplished relievers – Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley – though their bullpen did gain Sean Doolittle, Noe Ramirez and Cam Bedrosian. On the position player side, it doesn’t appear they adequately addressed shortstop, where they ranked 27th in the majors with 0.1 fWAR last year. Barring last-minute changes, they’re going to rely on some mix of Kyle Farmer, Jose Garcia and Dee-Strange Gordon, which isn’t particularly reassuring.
The Brewers, meanwhile, have reeled in two high-profile free agents in recent weeks, having signed former Cards second baseman Kolten Wong and ex-Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. At the very least, they should give the Brewers a pair of average regulars, largely because of the outstanding defense they typically provide. The Brewers are also getting back Lorenzo Cain, who sat out most of last season, and he’ll join Bradley and former MVP Christian Yelich in what should be a strong outfield.
Aside from Pittsburgh, FanGraphs’ preseason odds give every team in the division a realistic chance at coming out on top. The Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs and Reds are all projected to win between 78 and 81 games. Which of those four do you think is the favorite?
(Poll link for app users)
NL Central Favorite
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Cardinals 54% (12,793)
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Brewers 23% (5,376)
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Cubs 13% (3,031)
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Reds 10% (2,399)
Total votes: 23,599
Several Players Awaiting Clarity On Minor League Option Status
In the minutes after we posted our annual list of out-of-options players earlier today, several readers pointed out players they believed to have been omitted. In following up with various team and agency sources around the league, it became clear that there’s some uncertainty as to how the 2020 season will impact some players’ number of minor league options.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explores the situation at greater length, reporting that Cardinals outfielder Justin Williams isn’t even sure whether he has a minor league option remaining. Neither, according to Goold, are the Cardinals themselves. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes that the Angels are in a similar spot with right-hander Jaime Barria. Goold lists the Cubs’ Adbert Alzolay as another player currently in this state of limbo.
The reason? The commissioner’s office, the MLB Players Association and Major League teams still need to determine whether last year’s shortened slate of games counts as a full season under the league’s option structure. An arbiter is expected to make a final decision sometime this month, per Fletcher. Goold writes that a decision is expected “any time now,” adding that the Cardinals have been awaiting clarity for weeks.
By rule, players are given three option years after being selected to a team’s 40-man roster. Being optioned to the minor leagues, even if it’s out of Spring Training, counts as an option year — so long as the player spends 20 days down on the farm. Players are granted three option years, but there’s no limit to the number of times they can be optioned back and forth throughout the course of one of those individual option seasons.
It is possible for some players to be granted a fourth option year. This is most typical among players who have missed considerable time due to injury. Players who are on the 40-man roster and have exhausted those three minor league options before accruing five full seasons of play can be granted this exemption. A “full” season by that definition entails 90 or more days on an active Major League or Minor League roster (but not the injured list).
As Goold explains with regard to Williams, he fell shy of 90 days on an active roster in 2013, 2014 and 2019. His fifth “full” season would’ve been 2020 — you can see where this is going — but the season itself was not 90 days in length. Beyond the fact that the season itself was only 67 days long, players who were “optioned” weren’t sent to the minor leagues to compete in games but rather to alternate training sites to participate in simulated game settings against others in the organization.
Generally speaking, Major League clubs are keenly aware of the out-of-options players on other rosters, but it was clear in asking around today that there’s presently a disconnect because of last year’s shortened season. Even if you were to downplay the significance of one team not being clear on another team’s player, the reports from Goold and Fletcher underscore the confusion surrounding the issue.
It seems something of this nature should have been planned for during last year’s return-to-play negotiations, but as we saw with the months-long back-and-forth between MLB and the MLBPA, the March agreement under which the season was renewed had many issues that were not fully addressed. It’s not necessarily a surprise that 2021 option status wasn’t a major talking point up front, but it’s nonetheless a bit perplexing that an entire offseason has elapsed without a resolution. Minor league options — or a lack thereof — will be a considerably driving factor in spring roster moves around the game over the next four weeks.
NL Central Notes: Contreras, Mikolas, Brewers
Willson Contreras “wasn’t bothered at all” by trade speculation during the offseason, and if anything, the catcher was flattered by other teams’ interest. “The rumors didn’t bother me,” Contreras told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and other reporters. “It’s the other way — those rumors make me proud because of where I come from, everything that I’ve done to be where I’m at….I went through it relaxed because if I got traded, I know that I’m ready to play anywhere and everywhere.”
Like fellow Cubs teammates Javier Baez and Kris Bryant have stated in recent days, Contreras would welcome any extension talks with the team, saying “obviously, I’m willing to listen to whatever they have.” Baez and Bryant are entering their final season before free agency while Contreras is under team control through 2022, so Chicago may not quite have as much urgency to explore a longer-term deal with the catcher just yet, though it would be surprising if the Cubs didn’t at least broach the subject with Contreras and his representatives this spring. Contreras said that he is “just not thinking about” contract talks for now, as “my main focus is on this year.”
More from the NL Central…
- Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas “will be pushed back just a little bit” from his first outing of the spring, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Mikolas was scheduled to pitch during a simulated game on Monday, after throwing some live batting practice to teammates last week. “For now it’s caution,” Shildt said, and a team official told Goold that there is “very low” concern about Mikolas for the time being, yet any sort of setback has to considered notable considering that Mikolas missed the entire 2020 season. The right-hander ultimately decided to undergo surgery last August to fix a damaged right flexor tendon, after getting PRP injections both after the 2019 season and in February 2020, and then trying to work through the injury during both the shutdown and in Summer Camp. The Cards were already planning to bring Mikolas along rather slowly in order to build up his readiness for the start of the season, and it remains to be seen if this latest issue could delay his recovery plan.
- Injuries and a positive COVID-19 test prevented Luis Urias from getting any preseason time at shortstop last year, so the Brewers will give the youngster plenty of looks at the position during Spring Training. The larger question, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon examines, is whether or not this will result in Urias becoming the Brew Crew’s regular shortstop once the season actually begins. Milwaukee has built a lot of flexibility into the left side of its infield, as Urias, Orlando Arcia, and Daniel Robertson can all play either shortstop or third base, while Travis Shaw is also an option at the hot corner. Shaw can play first base as well, and Arcia also said that he is preparing to work out as a center fielder. Arcia made a single appearance in center field (the first of professional career) last season, playing four innings at the position on August 12 in a 12-2 loss to the Twins.
Quick Hits: Yankees, Cardinals, Diamondbacks
Teams in need of a left-handed hitting outfielder might want to check in with the Yankees about the availability of Mike Tauchman. Though the Yankees have four years of control remaining, there may simply not be room for him on the opening day roster, writes the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. It’s not just the addition of Brett Gardner that could push Tauchman out of the picture, though that doesn’t help Tauchman’s case. He’s competing with Jay Bruce and Derek Dietrich for that fifth outfielder role, and that veteran pair both bring the ability to play first base as well. That’s not on Tauchman’s resume. After a surprising .277/.361/.504 line over 296 plate appearances in 2019 turned the 30-year-old into a valuable member of the Yankee reserves, the power dissipated in 2020. His bat slipped from 28 percent better than average to 22 percent below by measure of wRC+. Mike Ford‘s playing time could also be at risk, but the backup first baseman has two option years remaining, whereas Tauchman would have to pass through waivers.
- Matt Carpenter is not conceding his spot in the everyday lineup just yet, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Carpenter won’t take many at-bats from Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado at the corners, and he’s competing with popular upstart Tommy Edman at the keystone, though Edman can play the outfield, too. Had the universal DH made its way to the league this season, Carpenter likely would have lined up for many of those at-bats. As is, he’ll be hard-pressed to beat out Edman at second, even if defense wasn’t a consideration. After being a 133 wRC+ hitter from 2012 to 2018, Carpenter fell to 95 wRC+ and 84 wRC+ the past two seasons. His batted ball profile has generally paralleled that trajectory, with exit velocity and hard hit percentage down in 2019 and 2020 from where he’d been previously.
- The Diamondbacks are promoting a new assistant general manager, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter). Mike Fitzgerald was previously the analytics director, and he now joins Amiel Sawdaye as assistant GMs under Executive VP and GM Mike Hazen. Ross Seaton has also been promoted to director of pitching.
Covid Notes: Jose Abreu, Andrew Miller
Major League Baseball announced last Friday that just 13 of the 4,336 tests performed during the first wave of Spring Training intake testing revealed positive Covid-19 results: nine players and four staff members spread across 11 big league teams. The broad-reaching hope, of course, is that the league and players will be able to navigate a full slate of games as successfully or more successfully than they did during last year’s 60-game sprint. A few updates of note on players who are or were delayed in their arrival to camp…
- Reigning American League MVP Jose Abreu will be away from the White Sox for the time being due to a positive Covid-19 test, the team announced Wednesday. GM Rick Hahn told Daryl Van-Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters that Abreu is asymptomatic and “believes he contracted a mild case of the disease in January, which is reinforced by the presence of COVID antibodies in additional testing.” Abreu is expected to join the White Sox “in the not-too-distant future,” Hahn added. The 34-year-old Abreu posted a monstrous .317/.370/.611 slash with 19 home runs and 15 doubles while appearing in all 60 games during 2020’s shortened schedule.
- Cardinals lefty Andrew Miller detailed his own recent bout with Covid-19 to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Miller wasn’t one of the 13 positive tests for the league, as he tested positive 10 days prior to the date on which Cardinals pitchers and catchers were set to report. His arrival was then further delayed by a few days, in accordance with league protocols. The 35-year-old quarantined in his house’s guest room, away from his wife and children, thankfully dealing with only mild symptoms (namely a loss of smell). Miller did acknowledge that he’s dealing with some fatigue now, though he believes it is “basically from being shut down” while isolating in that bedroom. “I thought I did a pretty good job of protecting myself,” said Miller. “The vaccine is right around the corner but I didn’t quite make it there.”
2021 Arbitration Hearing Results & Post-Deadline Agreements
January 15 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to officially submit salary figures for the 2021, and by the time the day was done, only 13 players didn’t reach agreement on a contract. The majority of teams now adhere to the “file or trial” strategy, meaning that no further negotiations on a one-year deal will take place between the arbitration deadline and a hearing with an arbiter, which theoretically puts pressure on players to get a deal done if they are wary about taking their case to a third party.
“File and trial” tactics didn’t stop the Astros and Carlos Correa from agreeing to a one-year deal for just the 2021 season, which is also Correa’s last year before gaining free agent eligibility. We also saw three multi-year deals reached, all from the greater Los Angeles area — the Dodgers reached two-year deals with Walker Buehler and Austin Barnes, while the Angels inked a two-year pact with Shohei Ohtani.
This left nine unresolved cases that went all the way to a hearing (held over Zoom) between an arbiter, the player, his representative(s), and front office personnel arguing the team’s side. The teams won five of the nine hearings, continuing the very narrow edge teams have held over players in arb cases in recent years — over the last 99 arbitration hearings, teams hold a 51-48 record over players.
For the full list of every salary for every arbitration-eligible player this offseason, check out the MLB Trade Rumors Arb Tracker. Sticking to the 13 players with unresolved cases from January 15, here’s the rundown…
Avoided Arbitration, One-Year Contract
- Carlos Correa, Astros: One year, $11.7MM (Correa filed for a $12.5MM salary, Astros filed for $9.75MM)
Avoided Arbitration, Multi-Year Contract
- Shohei Ohtani, Angels: Two years, $8.5MM (Ohtani filed for $3.3MM, Angels filed for $2.5MM)
- Walker Buehler, Dodgers: Two years, $8MM (Buehler filed for $4.15MM, Dodgers filed for $3.3MM)
- Austin Barnes, Dodgers: Two years, $4.3MM (Barnes filed for $2MM, Dodgers filed for $1.5MM)
Arbitration Hearings, Won By Player
- Ian Happ, Cubs: $4.1MM (Cubs filed for $3.25MM).
- Jack Flaherty, Cardinals: $3.9MM (Cardinals filed for $3MM)
- Mike Soroka, Braves: $2.8MM (Braves filed for $2.1MM)
- Ji-Man Choi, Rays: $2.45MM (Rays filed for $1.85MM)
Arbitration Hearings, Won By Team
- Dansby Swanson, Braves: $6MM (Swanson filed for $6.7MM)
- Donovan Solano, Giants: $3.25MM (Solano filed for $3.9MM)
- Ryan Yarbrough, Rays: $2.3MM (Yarbrough filed for $3.1MM)
- Anthony Santander, Orioles: $2.1MM (Santander filed for $2.475MM)
- J.D. Davis, Mets: $2.1MM (Davis filed for $2.475MM)
NL Central Notes: Rodriguez, Carpenter, Farmer
There is plenty of opportunity for hurlers to win jobs on the rebuilding Pirates‘ pitching staff, and The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (subscription required) breaks down the full list of arms in Pittsburgh’s Spring Training camp. This isn’t to say that the Bucs are entirely done making moves, however, as Biertempfel names Richard Rodriguez the “Pirates reliever most likely to be traded this spring.”
Since signing with Pittsburgh prior to the 2018 season, Rodriguez has posted very strong numbers — a 3.02 ERA, and an above-average 28.16K% and 7.15BB% over 158 relief innings. Home runs have been an issue (1.3 HR/9) and Rodriguez’s hard-contact numbers were among the worst in baseball last season, though he also has some elite (96th percentile) fastball spin. Rodriguez turns 31 in March, but he is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration, and is set to earn a modest $1.7MM this season. There hasn’t been any public trade speculation about Rodriguez during the offseason to date, yet considering how the Pirates are open to discussing virtually player in the organization, it seems likely some teams have already been in touch about Rodriguez. More talks could develop as Spring Training continues and clubs get a clearer sense of their bullpen needs.
Some more items from around the NL Central…
- Matt Carpenter will not be spending time in the outfield this season, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told Jeff Jones of the Belleville News (Twitter link) and other reports. Now that Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are entrenched at Carpenter’s usual corner infield positions, there has been some speculation that the Cardinals could look for other ways to get his bat in the lineup. Since the outfield is a non-starter for Carpenter and NL teams won’t have a designated hitter spot, this leaves either a second base platoon with Tommy Edman or bench duty for the 35-year-old Carpenter. The three-time All-Star has seen a steep decline at the plate over the past two seasons, and 2021 looms as Carpenter’s final year in St. Louis — the Cardinals have an $18.5MM club option for 2022 that seems almost sure to be bought out unless Carpenter has a major rebound.
- Kyle Farmer was keeping one eye on baseball Twitter this offseason to see if the Reds would sign a shortstop, he told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters, since Farmer was preparing to take a shot at the position himself. After playing just one game at shortstop over his first three seasons, Farmer made 15 appearances as a shortstop in 2020, and still remains in the mix for at least semi-regular work among a group that also includes Kyle Holder, Dee Strange-Gordon, and Max Schrock. (Jose Garcia is one of the few pure shortstops on the roster, though he is set to begin the season in the minors.) Farmer lost 10 pounds and overhauled his swing this offseason in his bid to prove himself worthy of regular playing time, though his multi-position versatility already makes him a strong candidate for a roster spot.