- Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is projected to start the year in the Rays’ rotation, but as a two-time Tommy John surgery patient, he faces long odds of making an impact, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times details. Only 31 other pitchers have made it back to the majors after undergoing a second Tommy John, which Eovaldi had as a Yankee in August 2016, while just 11 returned to start, per Topkin. That 11-man group (which Topkin lists) doesn’t offer a ton of hope, but Eovaldi is nonetheless banking on continuing as a starter. “I definitely want to be a starter and hold it out throughout the entire year,” he said. “As of now, we haven’t had any limitations, and we haven’t even talked about it.” The flamethrowing Eovaldi was a major league-caliber starter with the Dodgers, Marlins and Yankees from 2011-16, so it’s understandable that he and the Rays want to see him continue in that role. Although, his contract does include $2.375MM in relief incentives, Topkin notes.
Rays Rumors
The Rays' Main Issue: Pipeline, Not Payroll?
The Pirates and Rays have faced criticism from fans and pundits for a lack of spending, plus they were two of the four teams cited in a grievance filed by the players’ union about the quartet’s use of revenue-sharing funds. ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield, however, argues that the Bucs and Rays didn’t boast big payrolls even when they were in contention, and the larger issue that hurt Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in 2017 was a lack of production from homegrown talent. Neither club has done a good job of drafting and developing prospects in recent years, and the lack of a strong pipeline of minor league talent is deadly for any smaller-market franchise.
Rays Designate Ryan Schimpf
The Rays have designated infielder Ryan Schimpf for assignment (h/t Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). The team needed his spot on the 40-man roster to make room for the recently-signed Carlos Gomez.
The 29-year-old Schimpf made his major league debut with the Padres in 2016, posting a .217/.336/.533 batting line across 330 plate appearances en route to 2.5 fWAR. However, he followed it up with an unfortunate .158/.284/.424 line with a 35.5% strikeout rate in 2017, which led him to a replacement-level campaign. Fangraphs.com described him as “the poster child for the fly ball revolution going too far”, noting that his first two MLB seasons rank second and third in fly ball rate among all player seasons dating back to 2002.
The Rays had only recently acquired the left-handed hitter back in December, shipping out minor leaguer Deion Tansel. While he could clear waivers, there are probably a number of other clubs who might be willing to take a chance on his power and walk rate. The Rockies, for example, are in need of a utility infielder after learning that Pat Valaika and Shawn O’Malley are expected to miss time.
The move seems even more curious considering Schimpf was projected to make the Rays’ opening day roster as a bench player. Instead, the team will likely rely on a mix of Joey Wendle and Daniel Robertson behind a starting infield mix that includes Brad Miller, C.J. Cron, Adeiny Hechavarria and Matt Duffy until Christian Arroyo and Willy Adames force their way onto the MLB scene.
Rays Sign Carlos Gomez
March 3rd: The Rays have made the signing official. Gomez’s incentives are based on games played, per the Associated Press. He’d rake in $100K each for 80, 90, 100, 110 and 120 games.
February 21st: The Rays have agreed to a one-year deal with veteran outfielder Carlos Gomez, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). Gomez, a Boras Corporation client, receive a $4MM if he passes a physical, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). The deal also includes $500K in potential incentives and a $500K assignment bonus, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
If finalized, this pact would represent an interesting narrative shift after weeks of salary-paring moves from Tampa Bay. The organization just shipped away outfielder Steven Souza and starter Jake Odorizzi while designating left-handed-hitting slugger Corey Dickerson for assignment. Of course, Tampa Bay also picked up righty power hitter C.J. Cron and reliever Sergio Romo.
All things considered, then, it seems the Rays are engaged in a broad re-shaping of their 2018 roster and near-term balance sheet, more than a pure tear-down. That would square with the team’s insistence last night — via top baseball execs Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom — that further moves to part with veterans were not anticipated.
It is still a bit difficult to know just what to make of the overall slate of moves. Perhaps the addition of Gomez was in some part simply a reaction to the team’s decision to deal Souza, which came about as a result of what that front office duo suggested was an overwhelming offer from the Diamondbacks. Similarly, earlier moves — especially, the addition of Denard Span as a salary offset in the Evan Longoria deal — had left the Rays with a lefty-heavy outfield mix.
There’s no doubt some opportunism in the Gomez contract itself. MLBTR predicted he’d command a $22MM guarantee over two seasons, ranking him 23rd on the list of the top 50 free agents at the start of the offseason. Landing such a productive player at the reported rate — just $4MM on a single-season commitment — represents a notable bargain.
Though Gomez has earned his share of detractors with a vibrant and assertive (some might call it brash) personality on the field, and is not far removed from a miserable run with the Astros, he is coming off of a big season with the Rangers. Notably, Gomez received an $11.5MM guarantee in advance of the 2017 campaign. He went on to post a .255/.340/.462 batting line with 17 home runs and 13 steals over 426 plate appearances.
To be fair, there were a few clear signs of an ongoing decline. Gomez’s strikeout rate stayed in the thirty percent range, as it did in his rough prior campaign, and he was reliant upon a .336 BABIP that sits above his career mean. And Gomez is no longer a premium performer on the bases or in the field. Still, he rated as a plus on the basepaths and drew near-average grades for his glovework in center, so he still offers value as an all-around player. While it seems unlikely Gomez will return to his superstar peak, he seems likely to be at least an average regular or high-end platoon option.
Whatever the reason things shook out this way, the Rays will — barring further action — enter the 2018 season with an outfield unit that nobody could have predicted when the offseason got underway. Gomez, Span, and Mallex Smith now appear to represent the top three options to flank center fielder Kevin Kiermaier.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL East Notes: Pomeranz, Davis, Valencia, Arroyo
The results of Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz’ recent MRI showed a flexor strain, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports on Twitter. Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com says that Pomeranz describes the strain as “mild” and isn’t too worried about it. Mastrodonato later tweeted that every player who had a flexor strain last season missed at least six weeks, with one exception – Pomeranz. Last year’s injury caused him to spend 10 days on the DL. It should be strongly noted that all of this is simply one year’s worth of statistics, and we’ve yet to hear any announcement on Boston’s plans for their starter. Pomeranz pitched to a 3.32 ERA across 30 starts last season for the Red Sox, striking out just over a batter per inning while posting a 43.2% ground ball rate. He’s slated to become a free agent following the 2018 season.
Elsewhere in the American League’s Eastern Division…
- Speaking of injuries, Orioles first baseman Chris Davis had an MRI on his right forearm, but it turns out that there’s no structural damage. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun was first with the news on Twitter. Manager Buck Showalter had previously described the concern with Davis as a “flexor mass” issue (via Dan Connolly of baltimorebaseball.com). The Orioles will be hoping that Davis can stay healthy and bounce back this year after a rough 2017 season during which he homered 26 times but struck out in a whopping 37.2% of his plate appearances en route to a more pedestrian performance overall. He’ll enter the 2018 season at the age of 32; it’s the third year of a seven-year contract with Baltimore that guarantees him a total of $161MM.
- In other Orioles news, the recently-signed Danny Valencia has no plans to go to the minors if the team opts not to add him to the major league roster, according to a piece by Rich Dubroff of pressboxonline.com. “I have nothing to prove down there,” Valencia said. “I’ve been a productive big leaguer… Obviously, you want to be in the big leagues and I think it’ll all work out.” Valencia had been reasonably productive for the Blue Jays and A’s across the 2015-2016 seasons, posting 3.2 fWAR while hammering 35 homers during that span. It’s tough to peg the value of his performance as a Mariner last year, however, as formulas like bWAR, fWAR and WARP varied greatly in their outputs.
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times details the story of how new Rays infielder Christian Arroyo was raised by a single mother. Kim Arroyo worked ten-hour shifts on the casino floor at Hard Rock in order to support her son. But as he grew up, she still managed to find the time to play catch with him and throw batting practice. Kim says she had lots of help from family and friends, but Christian made clear the wealth of credit his mother deserves for what she did for him, and the values she instilled in him while she was raising him. “She did everything she could to make sure we never were struggling, and I never knew we were,” he said.
AL East Notes: Swisher, Gomez, Orioles
Although the always-energetic Nick Swisher never made it back to the majors after signing a minors pact with the Yankees in 2016, he’ll end up contributing to the team in a different way. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes in the second half of a piece for MLB.com. “Swish” will now serve as a special advisor to GM Brian Cashman. Though the terms of that job are typically pretty broad, Cashman envisions Swisher spending a lot of his time with minor leaguers in the organization. “He had a huge impact on that crew in Scranton when he was playing with [Aaron] Judge, [Greg] Bird, [Gary] Sanchez and all those guys,” said Cashman. “He brought the joy of playing the game on a daily basis, and it was infectious throughout that locker room. The opportunity to bring him into the fold and sprinkle him throughout our farm system was attractive.” On the field, Swisher was a .249/.351/.447 lifetime hitter; his playing career came to an abrupt end after a pair of rough seasons spent with the Indians and Braves from 2014-2015.
Other items out of the AL East…
- Rays outfielder Carlos Gomez is being met with a lot of excitement from his new teammates, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. In particular, Denard Span says that, “you’d rather have him on your team than playing against him. Because he’s a headache when you’re playing against him.” There are a lot of reasons for that, Topkin writes. Gomez likes to “mix it up” with bat flips and sometimes even instigates brawls. He’s also the type to play hard in every moment of every game, according to new teammate Kevin Kiermaier. “He’s a guy who just loves baseball,” says Kiermaier. “Every time he takes the field, it doesn’t matter if you’re up eight runs or down eight, he’s going to go and play with that intensity.” One of the most interesting points Topkin makes about Gomez is that he can be a little bit misunderstood. Although he appears animated and aggressive, Rays reliever Sergio Romo describes him as someone who “always means well” and that some of the things he’s done have simply taken the wrong way on occasion. Gomez is set to replace the recently-traded Steven Souza Jr. in the Rays’ outfield this season.
- Looking for a bit of insight into how players are cut from major league spring training camp? Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun helps shed some light on the subject by way of some words from Orioles manager Buck Showalter. Notably, Showalter is committed to spending time meeting with players prior to cuts. “I’m not going to rush through anything,” he said. “I want to hear from them as much as I want to tell them [some things], because I don’t want a month or two or three months to pass, and all of a sudden our success depends on them being able to come up and do something and we didn’t have those proper conversations.” Showalter also believes player feedback is an equally important part of those conversations.
Market Notes: Upton, Archer, Realmuto, Holland, Lynn
Over at The Athletic, Pedro Moura held a fascinating conversation with Angels slugger Justin Upton. (Subscription link.) There’s plenty of interest in the chat, though Upton’s comments on free agency are of particular interest and relevance. The thrust of his sentiment is that teams seem to be looking to score free-agent value rather than identifying and “courting” players they actively wish to employ. “Teams don’t value players as people anymore,” says Upton. “They value them as a number on a sheet of paper.”
Of course, Upton forewent a chance at returning to the open market by agreeing to a deal with an organization he was comfortable with. Here’s the latest on the unusually high number of quality free agents still not in camp and other market notes:
- The likelihood remains that the Rays will enter the season with Chris Archer on the staff, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports among other notes. That’s due in no small part to the team’s lofty asking price; one rival executive suggests that the Tampa Bay front office “wanted our whole farm system” to move Archer. The club has given that impression publicly, too. Senior VP of baseball ops Chaim Bloom reiterated that the expectation is to hang onto Archer and others in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). He added that the internal expectation is that it will begin to reap the rewards of an effort over recent years to bolster the farm depth while still trying to compete at the MLB level.
- It has remained interesting to consider whether the Nationals might pry catcher J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins. But there isn’t much recent indication of serious talks, and Heyman indicates that’s due to what seems to be a big gulf in the sides’ valuations. Washington won’t give top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto, per the report; while the club might part with young infielder Carter Kieboom or outfielder Michael Taylor, it seems Miami was asking for too much additional talent to be included in a package.
- The outfield market has certainly delivered some surprises thus far. Heyman says Jarrod Dyson spurned an early two-year, $14MM offer, though a source tells MLBTR that is not accurate. Dyson ultimately signed for $7.5MM with the Diamondbacks. It remains to be seen what’ll happen with players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Jon Jay, each of whom were rated among the fifty best free agents this winter by MLBTR. Heyman says the Indians are still looking at right-handed outfield bats, though it would surely be a surprise for the team to plunk down any meaningful money to make an addition. Perhaps the trade route could still hold some surprises, though that’s pure speculation on my part.
- Veteran reliever Greg Holland might have overplayed his hand in spurning the Rockies earlier in the winter. Colorado was willing to give him something approaching the three-year, $51MM deal the team ultimately inked with Wade Davis, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests in an appearance on the podcast of Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. It’s premature, perhaps, to declare that Holland won’t be able to top that number, though it’s frankly difficult to see where that level of interest might come from — as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has recently explained.
- Holland’s list of suitors is in question at the moment. One thing that seems clear, per Heyman, is that the Cubs aren’t planning on making a surprise run at the closer. Rather, Chicago seems largely committed to utilizing Brandon Morrow in the ninth inning and is likely to hold back its remaining payroll reserves for potential mid-season additions.
- So, how low could the remaining pitchers go? Presumably there’s a point at which some bidding would occur. But it’s notable that, per ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson (podcast link), the Twins expressed interest in Lance Lynn in the range of just $10MM to $12MM over two seasons. Just how that level of interest came about and was expressed isn’t clear. The team has also made some fairly notable recent commitments and may just not have much more payroll flexibility. And it certainly shouldn’t be taken as evidence of Lynn’s current market value. Still, it’s interesting to learn that’s the current extent of Minnesota’s interest.
Sawchik: Rays Moving Away From Hitters Who Struggle With Fastball
- The Rays have taken plenty of heat for their offseason moves, though Travis Sawchick of Fangraphs observes one common thread among the hitters they’ve let go: a susceptibility to whiffs against four-seam fastballs. Corey Dickerson swung through more four-seamers than anyone in Major League Baseball last season by a wide margin, Sawchik notes, while Steven Souza was third on that list and Logan Morrison tied for seventh. Sawchik also notes that each of the three had declines in the season’s second half (though Morrison maintained above-average production). Replacements such as Carlos Gomez and especially C.J. Cron had fewer struggles against the fastball, he adds. Sawchik has written in the past about how the Tampa Bay organization emphasizes utilizing elevated fastballs as a weapon more than most other clubs, so perhaps that trend applies to both sides of the ball.
AL East Notes: Rays, Pedroia, JDM, Lee
Rays owner Stuart Sternberg weighed in on the MLBPA’s grievance against the Rays and three other clubs regarding concerns over the reallocation of revenue-sharing funds, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays, according to Sternberg, are “beyond” compliant with the rules. “We’re very judicious in how we spend our money, but it’s spent in a lot of forms, and payroll is one of them,” said Sternberg, going on to point out that the Rays’ Opening Day payroll in 2018 will be higher than it was in 2017. Of course, the Rays still rank near the bottom of the league in that regard, as they do every year. Chris Archer, the Rays’ union representative, also spoke with Topkin on the matter. “I have no clue what it costs to run the Dominican academy,” said Archer. “I know just from my perspective, not a whole lot has changed with the spring training facility, not a whole lot has changed at the Trop, and our payroll has not increased significantly.”
- Veteran Red Sox star Dustin Pedroia had a bit more done to his knee than had previous been known, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. In addition to cartilage restoration work, Pedroia underwent a microfracture procedure to his tibia. Regardless, it seems that the hard-nosed veteran is progressing well given that he has now advanced to taking batting practice. Meanwhile, fellow infielder Marco Hernandez is still six weeks away from resuming baseball activities, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. Hernandez underwent shoulder surgery last May and only just had screws removed, but at least he now seems to be in sight of returning to the field.
- In other Red Sox coverage, Bradford discusses new signee J.D. Martinez’s unique relationship with his personal hitting coach. As it turns out, new Boston hitting coach Tim Hyers is well acquainted with Martinez’s guru Robert Van Scoyoc, who’ll be allowed to continue consulting with Martinez even though he has been hired by the Diamondbacks. It’s a deep and interesting look at how Martinez’s unique approach will fit with the organization.
- Orioles hurler Chris Lee will miss at least a month with an oblique injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com was among those to tweet. The southpaw had been viewed as one of a variety of hurlers competing for one rotation spot, a long-relief role in the pen, and/or a place in the organizational depth chart. Instead, he’ll have to work back to health before he’s able to begin pressing for his first MLB opportunity. The 25-year-old reached Triple-A for the first time last year, pitching to a 5.11 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 over 116 1/3 innings.
Rays’ Brent Honeywell Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
FEBRUARY 27: Honeywell underwent surgery today, Topkin tweets.
FEBRUARY 23: Rays top pitching prospect Brent Honeywell has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tommy John surgery has been recommended for the promising 22-year-old.
The diagnosis represents a worst-case scenario for the Rays in the wake of yesterday’s ominous arm injury for Honeywell. The early diagnosis was a forearm strain, though that’s often a precursor to a UCL tear upon further testing. Topkin noted yesterday that the injury was of “major concern” to the Rays. Honeywell reportedly threw roughly 10 pitches in a batting practice session before loudly shouting after his final pitch and eventually walking off the mound with a trainer.
The likely loss of Honeywell for the season is a brutal hit to the Rays’ depth. Even though Tampa Bay is hardly lacking for rotation alternatives, Honeywell ranks as not just one of the best pitching prospects in baseball but one of the top overall prospects in the game. Each of Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN, Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus ranked Honeywell within the top 15 overall prospects on their respective top 100 lists heading into the 2018 season.
Honeywell, the No. 72 overall draft pick in the 2014 draft, enjoyed a terrific season in Triple-A against older competition in 2017, tossing 123 2/3 innings with 11.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 41.2 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 3.64 ERA, a 2.84 FIP and a 2.77 xFIP.
Topkin had previously reported that Honeywell was likely ticketed for Triple-A to open the season, as the Rays are prepared to open the year with a four-man rotation of Chris Archer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jake Faria and Blake Snell. Matt Andriese will begin the season as a multi-inning reliever, but the extra off-days early in the 2018 schedule mean the Rays won’t need a fifth starter for several weeks. Andriese seems likely to eventually step into that role. Honeywell could’ve been called up early this summer to avoid Super Two status or, at the very least, called up at some point in May once the team had secured another year of club control over the highly touted righty.
That, of course, won’t be the case at all now at any point in the 2018 season. The Rays have alternatives to eventually step into the rotation as needed, though none comes with an upside that matches Honeywell. Nonetheless, the Rays have an enviable stock of young pitching in the upper minors and already on the 40-man roster, led by Anthony Banda, Jose De Leon, Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos.
