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Mariners, Blue Jays Interested In Isaac Paredes

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Rays infielder Isaac Paredes has drawn trade interest from several teams, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (X link), with the Mariners and Blue Jays among the suitors.  There isn’t any indication that a deal is anywhere close, and it would have to count as something of a surprise if Tampa did move Paredes, considering both his ability and the fact that he is only now entering his arbitration years.  He is projected to earn $3.2MM in the first of four arb-eligible years as a Super Two player.

As such, dealing Paredes wouldn’t bring many savings to the Rays’ 2024 payroll, estimated (via Roster Resource) to sit at a franchise-high $126MM.  President of baseball operations Erik Neander is on record as saying the Rays are open to having such a relatively large payroll, yet that hasn’t stopped speculation that Tampa Bay might look to move such higher-salaried names as Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot, Brandon Lowe, Harold Ramirez, or even Randy Arozarena.  Trading players as they become more expensive has been a longstanding way of business in Tampa, and there aren’t really many true untouchables on a roster that the Rays are forever looking to upgrade.

In this sense, selling high on Paredes now would net the Rays to a big trade return, and allow them to sidestep Paredes’ increasing arbitration price tag entirely.  It seems possible that the Rays might also consider attaching a less-desirable contract like Margot or Lowe along with Paredes in a trade package — while this would lessen the return in terms of prospects or big-league ready players, it would get some money off Tampa Bay’s books and perhaps allow them to keep Glasnow as the backbone of a somewhat thin rotation.

The Rays’ attention to the budget is what brought Paredes to Florida in the first place, as Tampa acquired the infielder and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick from the Tigers for Austin Meadows in April 2022.  Meadows was owed $4MM that season in the first of three arbitration years, yet the Rays chose to deal him in what ended up being a wise move.  Meadows has played in only 42 games since the trade due to vertigo and anxiety issues, and the Tigers non-tendered him last month.

Paredes, meanwhile, has blossomed in Tampa Bay, hitting .232/.333/.467 with 51 homers over 952 plate appearances since Opening Day 2022.  This production has outpaced his projected numbers, as Paredes hasn’t made much hard contact, and ranked only in the sixth percentile of all batters in hard-hit percentage in 2023.  On the plus side, it can be argued that Paredes has been hampered by a very low .232 BABIP over the last two seasons, and his strikeout and walk rates have been solidly above average.  In the field, Paredes has spent most of his time at third base posting respectable defensive numbers, and he brings added versatility as a player capable of getting some action as a second baseman, first baseman, and emergency shortstop.

This skillset is particularly useful for teams like Seattle and Toronto, infield-needy teams who could use more pop in the lineup.  The Mariners recently acquired Luis Urias to contribute to their infield picture, yet Paredes would be an improvement over Urias as a regular third baseman, so Urias and Josh Rojas could then work into a second base platoon.  The Blue Jays also have a big hole at the hot corner with Matt Chapman now a free agent, and Paredes could potentially also contribute to the Jays’ unsettled second base position.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has swung quite a few trades with the Rays during his tenure in Seattle, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the two sides line up once more.  That might seem a more realistic scenario than a notable swap between the Rays and Jays, as the AL East rivals unsurprisingly haven’t combined for many trades in their history.  Tampa Bay would probably prefer to not have to deal with Paredes as an opponent in the coming seasons, while the Blue Jays might not relish facing any of their own young talents that they might have to deal away to facilitate such a swap.

Speculatively, Tampa could target a controllable young pitcher like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo as part of a Paredes trade.  With the Mariners targeting contact hitting, Paredes would be a better fit at third base for the club than the free-swinging Eugenio Suarez, who was already dealt away to the Diamondbacks.  Any major salary relief probably might not factor into such a Rays/Mariners deal since it isn’t clear how much the M’s are able or willing to spend this winter, considering that the Suarez trade was made in part to reduce salary.  On this front at least, the higher-spending Blue Jays might be in a better position to take some money off Tampa’s books.

East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Rays

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The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the National League, even as it represented a substantial improvement over the club’s 107-loss 2022 campaign. While the club has sat out the top of the free agent market during the recent seasons of their rebuild, it seems that may not be the case this offseason as the club looks to upgrade at the infield corners and at DH, per TalkNats. The club has already been linked to a reunion with third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who was posting career-best numbers with the Nats prior to being dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. The report suggests that the club has interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfield/DH slugger Jorge Soler in addition to Candelario. The report goes on to indicate that Washington has been “very active” in the starting pitching market to this point in the offseason, though it does not connect any specific names to the club.

The rumored targets make sense for the Nationals. The club has a major hole at third base given that former top prospect Carter Kieboom has failed to establish himself the big league level. Kieboom’s .207/.266/.368 slash line (70 wRC+) in 2023 was largely in line with his career numbers of .199/.297/.301 (65 wRC+), and Candelario or another third base addition would almost certainly represent a significant upgrade over the 26-year-old. Meanwhile, an addition at first base or DH could help the club improve an offense that currently figures to use journeyman Joey Meneses at one position without an established starter at the other.

As for the rotation, the club has several interesting young arms such as Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore that they figure to prioritize developing, with veterans such as Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams who can reliably eat innings. That being said, the Nationals’ starting staff posted a combined 5.02 ERA last season, the sixth-worst figure in the majors. What’s more, the club’s 5.30 FIP in the rotation was better than only the lowly Rockies, while their starting staff combined for just 4.9 fWAR, better than only Colorado and Oakland. That leaves plenty of room for improvement if the club decides to add even a lower-level free agent such as Matthew Boyd or Frankie Montas to its rotation, to say nothing of a more impactful addition.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • While the Mets have reportedly shifted their focus away from superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the club is still looking at potential impact additions this offseason. They’ve long been connected to top-of-the-market arm Yoshinobu Yamamoto as they explore potential rotation upgrades, and Heyman adds that the Mets are looking into “nearly every available frontline starter” in addition to Yamamoto, including southpaws Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While Heyman notes the club is unlikely to land a rental arm such as Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber on the trade market, he does suggest the club’s interest in rotation upgrades extends to White Sox starter Dylan Cease, who is under team control for the next two seasons and has seen plenty of trade buzz this offseason. Rotation upgrades make plenty of sense for New York after the club shipped out veteran aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline over the summer, leaving Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and newly-signed righty Luis Severino as the club’s only rotation locks entering 2024.
  • The Rays have interest in a reunion with right-hander Cooper Criswell even after non-tendering him last month, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Criswell, 27, made his big league debut as a member of the Angels in 2021 with a one-game cup of coffee that lasted just 1 1/3 innings. He spent the past two seasons as a member of the Rays, with a 5.45 ERA and 5.00 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work across 11 appearances. While those numbers are certainly nothing to write home about, Criswell’s ability to go multiple innings and 46.8% career groundball rate at the big league level could make him a worthwhile depth addition for a Rays club that relied on 40 different pitchers throughout the 2023 campaign.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pitching Pursuits

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The Cardinals entered the offseason looking for three new starting pitchers, and that goal has already been accomplished with the signings of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson.  To this end, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated that the club has done a lot of the heavy lifting on its efforts to upgrade the rotation, yet he didn’t rule out more additions.

“We feel like we have a strong five right now,” Mozeliak told Gregg Palermo of Spectrum News.  “We feel like we have three or four guys that could give us depth throughout the season as well, so it’s not like a front-line priority but you never say never because something may pop up and make sense.”

In discussing the club’s tactics as a whole, Mozeliak said “we were very aggressive in the free agent market which was strategic.  We did not think we were going to be able to acquire what we were looking for via trade, at least where we didn’t feel like we were going to give up something that we were comfortable with, and so now that we do have some starting pitching we are going to be looking at things for our bullpen and be open-minded because there could be something that we haven’t thought about.”

Technically, St. Louis now has a rotation surplus given all of the younger arms behind the projected starting five of Gray, Lynn, Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz.  It isn’t to say that the Cardinals are necessarily itching to deal from their starting depth since the team very likely wants to have as much depth as possible on hand to withstand another spate of injuries, not to mention the fact that only Gray had a clear-cut quality season in 2023.

However, it does make sense that the Cardinals would be open to moving one or two of their younger arms if it means bringing in more top-of-the-rotation help.  In addition to their interest in White Sox starter Dylan Cease, the Cards have “discussed internally what a potential trade for Tampa Bay ace Tyler Glasnow would look like,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.

This isn’t really surprising news given that front offices routinely consider scores of free agents and trade candidates, and it seems similarly likely that the Cardinals probably at least checked in with the Rays about Glasnow as a matter of due diligence.  Perhaps most notably, Goold made specific mention that the Cardinals were weighing how Glasnow’s $25MM salary for 2024 would fit their payroll picture, which is currently projected to be slightly above their $178MM payroll from 2023.

While the Rays have stated they are comfortable carrying a larger payroll than usual for 2024, the general feeling is that Tampa will still try to move some salaries between now and Opening Day.  This could manifest itself as trades of other players (i.e. Harold Ramirez, Manuel Margot, or maybe even Randy Arozarena) rather than Glasnow, yet the right-hander’s $25MM salary is easily the highest on Tampa Bay’s roster, and he isn’t seen as a long-term fixture given that Glasnow is eligible for free agency next winter.  This short-term appeal makes Glasnow an interesting fit for many teams, including St. Louis if the Cardinals are okay with a one-year payroll bump, or if they look to shed some salaries themselves either as part of a Glasnow trade, or in other deals.

Turning to the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Yuki Matsui are a couple of the names already reported as players of interest for the Cardinals, and Goold adds Phil Maton as another target.  Maton has been an effective workhorse out of the Astros pen over the last two seasons, posting a 3.42 ERA and spectacular soft-contact numbers over 135 appearances and 131 2/3 regular-season innings.  A broken pinkie finger kept Maton from participating in Houston’s World Series run in 2022, but he has an outstanding playoff resume nonetheless, with an 0.83 ERA over 21 2/3 career postseason innings.

Maton (who turns 31 in March) went to high school in Chatham, Illinois, around a 90-minute drive away from St. Louis.  As Goold notes, geography also played a factor in the signings of Gray and Gibson, so the Cardinals might look to continue this trend to lure another semi-local product in Maton.  There hasn’t been a lot of buzz about Maton’s market to date, yet the relief pitching market as a whole hasn’t really gotten cooking, as teams have been primarily first focusing on starters.

Randy Arozarena Drawing Trade Interest

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Multiple clubs have reached out to the Rays about outfielder Randy Arozarena, per a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Rays aren’t shopping him but it may be something they consider with their perpetual financial concerns.

That clubs would be interested in Arozarena is hardly a surprise. In 487 regular season games in his career thus far, he has hit 71 home runs and stolen 80 bases. His 25.4% strikeout rate is a bit high, but he pairs that with a solid 9.5% walk rate. Those numbers were even better in 2023, coming in at 23.9% and 12.2%. His career batting line of .265/.351/.451 translates to a wRC+ of 128, indicating he’s been 28% better than league average. The reviews on his glovework are mixed, with Defensive Runs Saved liking him better than Outs Above Average. But his work at the plate is excellent and he’s shown a knack for taking it up a notch when the lights are brightest, with strong performances in the MLB playoffs and the World Baseball Classic.

Beyond his abilities, Arozarena is surely appealing due to his contractual situation. He qualified for arbitration last offseason as a Super Two player, earning $4.15MM in 2023, meaning this winter will see him go through the arb process for the second out of four passes. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $9MM in 2024, with further raises to come in the following two seasons.

Even for a low-spending club like the Rays, $9MM isn’t going to break the bank. But since his salary will go up as his club control goes down, it’s fair to expect that the Rays will be looking to trade him at some point. The club often operates this way, flipping players as they get more expensive and closer to free agency, continually restocking the system with cheaper and more affordable players. Tommy Pham, Blake Snell and Austin Meadows are just some examples from recent years.

The Rays do appear to have a bit of a short-term budget crunch. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll is currently at $126MM, whereas the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts shows they’ve never previously gone beyond the $80MM range. President of baseball operations Erik Neander has said the club is open to running a higher payroll next year, but they may still have to make some cuts. Right-hander Tyler Glasnow has been a popular name in trade rumors, as he has one year and $25MM left on his deal. Manuel Margot has also been in trade talks, with one year and $12MM left on his guarantee.

Arozarena is set to make less than either of those two, but his extra years of control would give him the most trade value of the group. Those extra years mean that the Rays don’t have to move him now, but if they are going to move him eventually, his trade value is as high as it will be. His salary will only go up in future seasons as he gets closer to the open market, shrinking the amount of years the Rays can sell.

Despite the budgetary concerns, all indications are that the Rays are still trying to compete in 2024. Any trade they make would be about striking a balance between saving money but still keeping the talent on the roster as high as possible. An outfield without Arozarena in it could still have Margot, Josh Lowe and Jose Siri, with players like Luke Raley, Greg Jones, Jonathan Aranda and Harold Ramírez potentially in the mix as well. It’s also possible that the trade return could include another outfielder, cheaper than Arozarena and less established at the big league level.

But trading Arozarena could also allow them to perhaps add some starting pitching, which is a notable concern even if Glasnow doesn’t get moved. Each of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs underwent a significant elbow surgery this year, meaning each of them is set to miss most or all of the upcoming campaign. A trade of Arozarena could be one way of filling the rotation behind Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. If Glasnow ends up getting traded, it would only increase the need for rotation help.

It’s unknown which clubs are calling the Rays or how open they would be to any offers on Arozarena. But given the rumors surrounding their players with bigger salaries, it seems as though a trade or two will be made. Ultimately, it will depend on exactly where they need the payroll to be and what kind of offers are coming in for Glasnow, Margot, Arozarena or perhaps players like Isaac Paredes or Brandon Lowe.

The Rays could also perhaps benefit from a free agent market that is considered light in terms of impact bats. Shohei Ohtani is on his own planet and set for a record-breaking contract of some kind, but beyond him, the best options include Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler and others. It’s expected by many in the baseball world that the Padres will flip Juan Soto due to their own financial issues. Players like Eloy Jiménez, Alex Verdugo and Christopher Morel could be on the trading block as well.

But Arozarena would be one of the most attractive trade candidates if he were truly available, given the combination of his skills, affordability and control. Passan’s report indicates that a small number of clubs have reached out to the Rays but more could come calling over the next few weeks.

Reds Reportedly Pursued Sonny Gray; Interested In Tyler Glasnow

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Right-hander Sonny Gray is reportedly in agreement with the Cardinals on a three-year, $75MM deal. Per a report from Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, the Reds pursued Gray and were “close” before Gray agreed with the Cards instead. Sheldon adds that the Reds are interested in righty Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, who is thought to be on the trading block.

Pitching is in an obvious target area for the Reds this winter, given that they have a surplus of position players. They have enough choices for their lineup that they declined their club option on franchise icon Joey Votto, with president of baseball operations Nick Krall explaining that the club didn’t have the necessary playing time for him. Jonathan India might be in a similar boat, despite having a reputation as a strong clubhouse presence and having won Rookie of the Year back in 2021. Reports have suggested a trade is likely, though Krall has pushed back on that.

Regardless of whether India is available or not, the pitching staff is clearly the place for the club to dedicate some resources, something that Krall has admitted. The talented lineup almost vaulted the Reds into the 2023 postseason, but they ultimately came up just short while deploying an injury-marred and insufficient pitching staff. The club’s hurlers had a collective 4.83 earned run average on the year, which placed them ahead of just five teams in the league. The rotation was a particular problem, as the starters posted a combined 5.43 ERA that was better than just the Athletics and Rockies.

Health was a significant factor there, with many of their young hurlers hitting the injured list. Lefty Nick Lodolo had a strong debut in 2022 but was limited to just seven starts this past year due to a stress reaction in his left tibia. Hunter Greene missed a couple of months due to hip pain and posted a 4.82 ERA in his 22 starts. Graham Ashcraft went to the IL both due to a left calf contusion and a right big toe stress reaction, being limited to 26 starts with a 4.76 ERA.

If all three of them are healthy next year, then that gives the club a solid young core. Lefty Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson should be in the mix after decent rookie seasons in 2023, with Abbott having recorded an ERA of 3.87 in 21 starts while Williamson was at 4.46 in his 23 outings. But Abbott’s 79.9% strand rate was a bit on the high side, leading his 4.20 FIP and 4.33 SIERA to be a bit skeptical of his ERA, whereas Williamson posted his passable results despite a subpar 20% strikeout rate.

There’s clearly lots of talent in that rotation mix but each guy is fairly inexperienced. In 2023, most of them were either injured or putting up tepid results or both. Bolstering this group with an established arm could raise the ceiling while also improving the depth, reducing the chances of them being undercut by injuries yet again in 2024.

It seems they have some funds available for such a pursuit, based on this report. While we don’t have any details on what kind of numbers the Reds were putting in front of Gray or if an official offer was made, the Cards seem to have sealed the deal at $25MM per season. The Reds could have offered a higher average annual value on two years or perhaps offered a four-year deal with a lower AAV, but the fact that they seemed to be in the running suggests that they had some ability to add a contract around that size.

That tracks with the interest in Glasnow as well, since he has one year left on his contract with that exact figure of $25MM. That’s a bargain for a pitcher of Glasnow’s quality, as he has a 3.03 ERA over the last five years, striking out 35% of batters while walking just 7.7% and keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.2% rate. He wouldn’t really help the injury instability in Cincinnati since he just returned from Tommy John surgery that wiped out much of his 2022. The 120 innings he threw in 2023 are actually a career high, as he’s dealt with various other ailments throughout his career. But he would immediately jump to the top of the rotation in Cincy if they were able to acquire him. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at 12 teams that made sense for Glasnow, with the Reds being one of them.

Whether they can actually get him is another question. The Rays have every intention of continuing to compete and aren’t rebuilding. The only reason Glasnow is considered available is because of his contract and the constant payroll concerns of the Rays. Sheldon adds that the club would be looking for an MLB-ready starter in return.

That makes sense when considering things from the Tampa perspective. In the 2023 season, each of Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen underwent a significant elbow surgery and those three are set to miss most or all of the upcoming campaign. That leaves them with Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale in their rotation. Shane Baz should be in the mix but he just missed all of 2023 recovering from his own Tommy John surgery. Taj Bradley had a fairly uninspiring rookie campaign. Zack Littell could play a role but he was just recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation.

There’s plenty of uncertainty there and that’s especially true if Glasnow is removed from the equation. If the Reds were to strike on Glasnow, they would probably have to include one of their own young starters, allowing the Rays to save money but keep their rotation in competitive condition. After the Reds missed the playoffs, Krall spoke to reporters about the club’s lack of activity at last year’s deadline. “I don’t have any regrets not doing anything,” he said. “I still wouldn’t have given up players on our roster for shorter-term assets.”

Glasnow only has one year remaining on his deal, so he would be a short-term asset. Though by acquiring Glasnow in the offseason as opposed to the deadline, there would at least be the chance to recoup a draft pick later by extending the qualifying offer at the end of the 2024 campaign. Perhaps that makes Krall more willing to accept the acquisition cost of getting a short-term asset but it’s also something that the Rays will be factoring into their asking price.

Time will tell whether a Glasnow deal can come together, but even if it doesn’t, it seems the Reds have at least some willingness to add a sizeable contract to their books as a means of upgrading their rotation. Roster Resource estimates their payroll at just $52MM for 2024, as of today. They were at $83MM in 2023 and have been as high as $127MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they add a $25MM contract, they would only be at $77MM, presumably leaving more room for bullpen/bench additions as they look to take another step forward next year.

Can The Rays Cut Payroll Without Moving Tyler Glasnow?

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Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow’s name has been floated frequently in the rumor mill this offseason, and it’s not hard to see why. Tampa Bay’s highest Opening Day payroll in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, was a figure just under $84MM in 2022. Meanwhile, RosterResource projects the Rays for a substantial increase over that figure, with a $126MM projection for the club’s 2024 Opening Day roster as things stand. That disparity of more than $40MM has led to a widespread belief around the league that the club needs to slash payroll this offseason, and Glasnow’s $25MM salary in 2024 is far and away the largest salary on Tampa’s books for 2024.

That said, the Rays are facing a great deal of question marks regarding their starting rotation due to significant injuries to lefties Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs as well was right-hander Drew Rasmussen last season. Each of the three required season-ending surgery in 2023 and figure to miss much, if not all, of the 2024 campaign as well. That leaves the Rays with just three sure-fire starting pitchers entering the 2024 season as things stand: Glasnow, Aaron Civale, and Zach Eflin.

The club could get additional help next year from youngsters Taj Bradley and Shane Baz (the latter of whom is coming off a lost season due to Tommy John surgery in 2023) as well as righty Zack Littell, who pitched solidly as a swingman for the Rays in 2023, but the club’s many pitching injuries this past season serve as a reminder of the importance of maintaining starting pitching depth. Trading Glasnow would represent a major blow to that depth, particularly after he finished second to only Eflin in innings on the Rays last year despite not making his season debut until the end of May.

It’s worth noting the possibility the Rays’ situation isn’t as dire as it may seem. After all, president of baseball operations Erik Neander has indicated that the club would be open to running a higher payroll in 2024 than they have in previous years in order to keep more of the club’s 99-win 2023 roster together. Specifics on exactly how high of a payroll club ownership is willing to stomach aren’t clear, but cutting projected payroll to $100MM would place them 22nd among majors league clubs in projected payroll for 2024, just behind the Brewers ($101MM) and just ahead of their southern neighbors in Miami ($96MM). While the club has typically run a bottom-five payroll among MLB clubs in recent years, precedent for the Rays ranking higher does exist, as Cot’s indicates their 2010 payroll was 22nd in the majors as well.

Given the club’s pitching and financial situations, it’s fair to not only ask if the Rays can afford to keep Glasnow in 2024, but also if they can afford to part with him. While there are no simple answers to the second question, it’s worth looking into the first: if the Rays are willing to run a payroll of $100MM in 2024, is there a path to retaining Glasnow as a member of the Opening Day roster?

Glasnow isn’t the only Rays player who’s seen his name appear in the rumor mill this offseason; outfielder Manuel Margot’s name has percolated almost as frequently as the hulking right-hander’s, with the Mets and Yankees among his known suitors. Moving on from Margot, who has posted roughly league average numbers (97 wRC+) at the plate over the past four seasons alongside stellar defense in the outfield, would likely be a must if the Rays are to trim their current payroll to $100MM while retaining Glasnow. Margot’s $10MM salary in 2024 is third-highest on the team, behind only Glasnow and Eflin. Trading two years of Eflin, who’s under contract for a combined $29MM over the next two seasons, in order to retain one year of Glasnow would make little sense for the Rays beyond an exorbitant trade return for Eflin’s services.

Margot isn’t the only outfielder who’s seen his name floated frequently as a potential Rays trade chip this offseason. Righty slugger Harold Ramirez has also seen his name floated as a potential trade candidate thanks to the similarity of his role to that of fellow slugger Luke Raley. While Ramirez’s projected $4.4MM salary in 2024 (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) is a reasonable price to pay for his services, Raley’s presence as a .249/.333/.490 hitter who crushed 19 homers in just 406 trips to the plate last season fills a similar niche to Ramirez on the club’s roster at a pre-arbitration rate. That makes Ramirez somewhat expendable for the Rays despite a solid .306/.348/.432 slash line over his two seasons with Tampa.

If the Rays part ways with both Margot and Ramirez this offseason, that would trim just under $15MM from the club’s payroll without doing too much damage to the club’s outfield depth, which would still include Raley in addition to Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, and Greg Jones. That still leaves the club with more than $11MM in payroll that would need to be trimmed to get the club’s payroll down to $100MM, however. While dealing a veteran relief arm like Jason Adam or Andrew Kitteredge could save the club $2-3MM while opening up a roster spot for a youngster like Manuel Rodriguez or Colby White, the club’s bullpen depth would suffer for it and the Rays would still need to part ways with a more significant piece.

The two most likely candidates to depart in such a deal would be outfielder Randy Arozarena and second baseman Brandon Lowe, but parting with either player opens up significant question marks within the club’s positional group. Arozarena has become a face of the franchise in recent years thanks to his steady production and postseason heroic. In 2023, the 28-year-old delivered a 20/20 season while posting a 127 wRC+ as the club’s regular left fielder, production that would be difficult to replace without adding even more in payroll than Arozarena’s projected $9MM salary. That being said, there’s at least an argument to listen to offers on Arozarena’s services given the club’s budget crunch and the fact that he figures to only get more expensive in future trips through arbitration as he enters his thirties.

Lowe, on the other hand, could be easier for the club to replace. The 29-year-old had something of a bounceback season at the plate in 2023, slashing .231/.328/.443 with a 117 wRC+ in 109 games this past year after posting roughly league average numbers at the dish in 2022. Like Arozarena, Lowe figures to only get more expensive in the coming years as the Rays hold a pair of club options on his services for 2025 and 2026, valued at $10.5MM and $11.5MM respectively. With plenty of young infielders like Junior Caminero, Curtis Mead, and Jonathan Aranda approaching the big leagues, Lowe’s production could be easier for the club to replace internally than Arozarena’s, as well.

That being said, a Lowe trade comes with its own pitfalls. Lowe flashed the offensive production of an impact player from 2020-21, when he slashed .253/.346/.532 (140 wRC+) with 53 home runs in just 205 games. While he’s now two years removed from that offensive outburst, it’s worth noting that Lowe has been slowed by back issues over the past two seasons. A healthy 2024 campaign could see Lowe return to the All-Star caliber production from earlier in his career and substantially increase his value, both to the Rays and on the trade market. A Lowe trade would also exacerbate the uncertainty Tampa’s infield is facing due to the off-the-field issues of franchise shortstop Wander Franco and the offseason surgery of slick-fielding backup Taylor Walls, though it’s at least possible one or both players could be back in time for Opening Day.

For the Rays to make considerable cuts to their 2024 payroll while also retaining Glasnow, the club would likely have to part ways with at least four players in Margot, Ramirez, one of Adam or Kitteredge, and one of Arozarena or Lowe. While shipping out Margot, Ramirez, and a relief arm would all be perfectly defensible actions that subtract from areas of substantial depth for the club, dealing Arozarena or Lowe would entail giving up a slugger with multiple years of team control in the midst of his prime years who the club could struggle to replace the production of. That’s a steep price to pay in order to retain the services of Glasnow for the 2024 season, particularly when he figures to depart in free agency next winter either way.

Of course, there’s plenty of factors this exercise doesn’t take into account as well. Chief among them is the potential trade returns the Rays could garner, not only for Glasnow, but also for a longer-term piece like Lowe or Arozarena. If the Rays find themselves bowled over by an offer for any of the pieces mentioned here, the options at their disposal could certainly change. It’s also fair to note that the Rays could at least plausibly be willing to carry a payroll that exceeds even the $100MM figure used in this exercise; after all, the club made an offer to superstar first baseman Freddie Freeman during the 2021-22 offseason and had interest in dealing for two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, both of whom would have likely required financial commitments north of Glasnow’s $25MM salary. Since then, the Rays have also hammered out an agreement on a new stadium in St. Petersburg, potentially further incentivizing the club to loosen the purse strings.

12 Possible Fits For A Tyler Glasnow Trade

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Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow is among this offseason’s top trade candidates. He’s set to make $25MM in his final season before free agency. That’d be the largest single-year salary in franchise history. The Rays committed to that number not long ago, signing the 6’8″ hurler to an extension in August 2022. Even with various subsequent injuries to their rotation, Tampa Bay could move Glasnow to bring in cheaper talent.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted this evening that a pair of rival executives believe the Rays will pull the trigger on a Glasnow deal this offseason. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal offered a similar sentiment in an appearance on Foul Territory (X link). Rosenthal suggested Glasnow could be the likeliest of the group of top starters who are frequently mentioned as trade candidates — also including Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber — to move.

If the Rays did pull the trigger on a deal this winter, it’d have to be to a club with legitimate playoff aspirations in 2024. There’s little reason for teams like the Nationals or Rockies to acquire a star pitcher with one year left on his deal. An acquiring team would need to be willing to accommodate a $25MM salary. It’s hard to envision Tampa Bay making a trade of this magnitude within division.

That narrows things down somewhat but still leaves various potential suitors. Let’s identify some fits (listed alphabetically). All salary projections are courtesy of Roster Resource.

  • Angels: The Angels arguably stretch the definition of “legitimate playoff aspirations,” especially if Shohei Ohtani signs elsewhere. They have made clear they’re not going to rebuild in any case. Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Griffin Canning are solid rotation pieces. They’re not true #1 arms, though, something Glasnow would provide.
  • Astros: Houston will be without Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. into the middle of the season. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier make for a strong top three. Hunter Brown and J.P. France tailed off a bit as their rookie seasons wound down. Glasnow fits on paper, although it’s unclear whether the Astros would take on his salary. GM Dana Brown has downplayed the financial flexibility at their disposal.
  • Braves: Atlanta made a run at Aaron Nola before his seven-year contract to return to Philadelphia. The Braves subsequently added Reynaldo López on a three-year pact and indicated he could return to the rotation. That doesn’t preclude them from exploring clearer upgrades to join Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton in the middle to upper part of the staff. The farm system has thinned but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos hasn’t shied away from aggressive strikes on the trade market to support an elite core.
  • Cardinals: St. Louis has sought three starting pitchers this offseason. They’ve added two veteran innings eaters on one-year deals, bringing in Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson on consecutive days. That raises the floor but still leaves them in clear need of a top-of-the-rotation arm. St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged the team has yet to dig deeply into trade possibilities (link via Katie Woo of the Athletic). That’ll change now that they’ve added some stability without a ton of upside on the open market.
  • Cubs: Marcus Stroman declined his player option for 2024. That leaves the Cubs with a front three of Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon. There’s clearly room for another high-end starter. Chicago isn’t far off this past season’s Opening Day payroll but projects around $25MM below their franchise high mark. They’re about $50MM south of the lowest luxury tax threshold.
  • Diamondbacks: Taking on a $25MM player isn’t typical operating procedure for the Diamondbacks. Yet it’s something they could consider this winter on the heels of a World Series run. Arizona’s $103MM projected payroll is around $13MM south of this past season’s mark. It’s nearly $30MM below their franchise high. Adding another starter to join Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt is a clear priority.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers are going to add a couple starting pitchers. Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías hit free agency. Kershaw’s return timeline is uncertain after shoulder surgery. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May will miss part or all of next season. Walker Buehler is back but coming off a second Tommy John surgery. Behind him are a few second-year hurlers (Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan) and swingman Ryan Yarbrough. Any of the top free agent or trade candidates on the rotation front make sense.
  • Giants: San Francisco’s projected payroll sits at $148MM, about $40MM shy of this year’s mark. Logan Webb is an ace. The rest of the rotation is in question. Alex Cobb is coming off hip surgery. Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling had injuries and/or underperformance in 2023. Top prospect Kyle Harrison is still unproven. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has been reluctant to make free agent splashes for starting pitching. A Glasnow trade would add an impact arm without the kind of long-term rotation commitment to which this front office has been averse.
  • Mets: The Mets are likely to bring in multiple starters. Kodai Senga and José Quintana are the only locks for the Opening Day rotation. It’s debatable whether they’re positioned to part with noteworthy young talent to add a rental with the team coming off a 75-87 season. New York has made clear they’re not punting the 2024 season entirely, though. Adding a high-end starter is one step of many required to put themselves back in the conversation with the Braves and Phillies in the NL East.
  • Padres: San Diego is down to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish after seeing each of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez hit free agency. The Padres are reportedly trimming payroll, which could rule them out on a $25MM arm, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never been afraid to move things around to accommodate impact talent. The Snell trade with Tampa Bay has been one of the best moves of his tenure.
  • Rangers: The defending champions could lose Jordan Montgomery to free agency. Jacob deGrom won’t be ready until the season’s second half. Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney is still a good starting five. They could nevertheless take a swing for Glasnow, building a potential playoff rotation consisting of Glasnow, deGrom, Scherzer and Eovaldi as they try to repeat.
  • Reds: Cincinnati’s situation is similar to Arizona’s. The Reds aren’t big spenders but could be in position for a lofty one-year salary for a #1 starter. They’re projected at $52MM for next season, $30MM below this year’s Opening Day mark. The young position player group put the Reds on the fringe of postseason contention. Adding a starter to lead a staff that also includes Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott is the next step.

AL Notes: Glasnow, Jansen, A’s

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The Rays figure to spend much of their offseason grappling with how to improve their roster despite a $126MM projected payroll (per RosterResource) that would be a franchise record. Given the considerable expected increase in Tampa’s payroll, plenty of speculation has swirled surrounding the future of ace right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who is in the final year of his contract with the Rays and is due $25MM in 2024. Moving Glasnow would trim considerable payroll for the Rays while also allowing them to secure cheaper talent in the return package, a method the club has frequently utilized in recent years when parting ways with players like Blake Snell, Chris Archer and, Evan Longoria.

While it’s certainly feasible the Rays could decide to take that route with Glasnow, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicates that such a deal is unlikely to come together any time soon, noting that the club’s talks regarding a Glasnow deal are seen as “preliminary.” Morosi goes on to suggest that a Glasnow trade is more likely to occur after the top tier of free agent starters, which includes Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, have found new homes. Waiting until the free agent market plays itself out more is a sensible choice for the Rays; after all, plenty of clubs are rumored to be looking for front-of-the-rotation impact this offseason, and teams that miss out on the aforementioned group of pitchers may be more motivated to get a deal for Glasnow done later in the offseason once the big names of the free agent market are off the table.

More from around the American League…

  • Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen is poised to hit free agency following the 2024 season, but it appears that the 28-year-old and the team aren’t planning on getting together on an extension any time soon. In an interview with Scott Mitchell of SportsCentre, Jansen said that though the sides did talk about a potential extension, “both parties agreed to carry on and see what happens throughout this year.” Toronto, of course, has fellow backstop Alejandro Kirk under team control through the end of the 2026 season. Given that reality, the fact that an extension for Jansen appears to not be a top priority for the Blue Jays is hardly a surprise. That’s especially true considering the club’s reported interest in top free agent bats such as Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger.
  • The Athletics have now received unanimous approval from MLB owners for their plan to relocate to Las Vegas. In the wake of the relocation vote, team president Dave Kaval interviewed with The Athletic’s Evan Drellich. Kaval expressed the team’s excitement for the coming move. Though he noted that Las Vegas leaves the club with “uncertainty” regarding revenue from local media as the smallest TV market in MLB, Kaval noted that the club expects their new market to “punch a little above its weight” in other areas to make up for that. Kaval also suggested that the club has no interest in leaving the “Athletics” name behind as it moves to the desert. That’s a particularly relevant piece of information given Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao has previously indicated that leaving the name in Oakland could be among the city’s demands should the A’s wish to stay in Oakland after their lease expires following the 2024 campaign but prior to the club’s Las Vegas ballpark’s opening, which is expected to occur in time for the start of the 2028 season. Kaval went on to clarify that the club’s current TV deal only applies while the club is playing in the Bay Area, which could provide the club with an additional incentive to get a deal done either with the city of Oakland or to share Oracle Park with the Giants for the 2025-27 seasons.

Marlins Acquire Vidal Brujan, Calvin Faucher From Rays

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The Marlins announced the acquisition of utility player Vidal Bruján and right-hander Calvin Faucher from the Rays. Miami is sending minor league infielder Erick Lara, right-hander Andrew Lindsey and a player to be named later to Tampa Bay. The Fish already had three openings on the 40-man roster, so no further moves were necessary.

Bruján is the biggest name in the deal. While the switch-hitting utilityman has yet to find much major league success, he was once a top prospect. The Dominican Republic native was a top 10 prospect in a strong Rays system at Baseball America each year from 2019-22. He ranked in the back half of BA’s top 100 overall minor league talents throughout that run.

Praised for his speed, bat-to-ball skills and defensive flexibility, Bruján fit the general profile that Tampa Bay prioritizes. Despite excellent minor league production, he never got much consistent run at the MLB level with the Rays. Bruján struggled when he did see relatively brief stints at the highest level in the last three seasons.

In 272 MLB plate appearances, the 25-year-old is a .157/.218/.221 hitter with three home runs. He has been far better at Triple-A Durham, hitting .273/.357/.450 over parts of three seasons. That includes a .272/.362/.477 slash with 10 home runs and 19 stolen bases (albeit with 14 times caught stealing) over 59 games for the Bulls this year.

Bruján has exhausted his minor league option years, so he’ll have to stick on the MLB roster next season. A Tampa Bay team deep in infield talent may not have been able to afford that opportunity, so they’ll clear a 40-man roster spot early in the offseason. Miami has a bit less bench depth and is without a clear answer at shortstop, where Jon Berti projects as the starter. While Bruján is unlikely to get an everyday job, he can play either middle infield position, any outfield spot, and has experience at third base.

Faucher, 28, had been designated for assignment on Tuesday. He’s now traded for the second time in his career. The former Twins draftee went to the Rays at the 2021 deadline in the Nelson Cruz/Joe Ryan swap. He debuted with Tampa Bay in 2022 and has pitched in 39 big league contests (four starts) over the past two seasons.

The results haven’t been great. Faucher owns a 6.32 ERA in 47 MLB innings. His 20.8% strikeout rate and 10% walk percentage are each a little worse than average. The UC Irvine product throws in the mid-90s and has a cutter, sweeper and curveball in his offspeed repertoire. He owns an excellent 2.75 ERA in 72 Triple-A innings over three years, striking out 29.4% of batters faced at that level.

Faucher still has one option year remaining, so the Marlins can move him between Miami and Triple-A Jacksonville for another season. It’s the second straight year in which the Fish acquired a reliever and a former top infield prospect from Tampa Bay. Last November, the sides lined up on the Xavier Edwards/JT Chargois deal. That was orchestrated by previous Miami general manager Kim Ng. Miami’s first-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was working in the Rays’ front office for that trade. One of his first transactions leading the Marlins is to bring in a pair of players with whom he’s familiar from their in-state rivals.

In return, Tampa Bay picks up a pair of prospects (and likely a third) who are nowhere near occupying 40-man roster spots — common practice as they churn the roster for future talent. Lara is a 17-year-old shortstop who recently signed out of the Dominican Republic. Baseball America’s Ben Badler wrote in May that he could stick at shortstop depending on his 6’2″ frame fills out. He’s a left-handed hitter.

Lindsey was a fifth-round pick this past summer out of Tennessee. The 6’3″ hurler pitched to a 2.90 ERA in 71 1/3 innings during his junior season for the Volunteers. He struck out nearly a quarter of opponents against a modest 6.4% walk rate. He turned 24 this week. BA wrote in his draft report that he sits in the mid-90s with a sinker and has a high-80s slider as his top secondary pitch.

Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase first reported the Marlins were acquiring Bruján and Faucher.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

American League Non-Tenders: 11/17/23

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm CT. Here’s a rundown of the players on American League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month. All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency, where they’re eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.

Onto the transactions…

Latest Moves

  • Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Rays non-tendered righty Cooper Criswell. He’d been designated for assignment on Tuesday.
  • The Mariners announced this evening that the club has non-tendered first baseman Mike Ford. Ford hit well (.228/.323/.475) in 83 games with Seattle this season but had already been designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Yankees announced this evening that the club has non-tendered right-handers Albert Abreu and Lou Trivino in addition to left-hander Anthony Misiewicz. Trivino didn’t pitch in the majors this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in May. Abreu pitched to a 4.73 ERA and 5.26 FIP across 59 innings of work while Misiewicz posted a 7.36 ERA across 11 innings of work for the Diamondbacks, Yankees, and Tigers.
  • The Twins have non-tendered left-hander Jovani Moran and right-hander Ronny Henriquez, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Moran finished the season on the injured list and, per Hayes, will require Tommy John surgery this offseason. Henriquez did not appear in the majors this year and struggled to a 5.68 ERA in 37 appearances at the Triple-A level.
  • The Angels announced this evening that they have non-tendered right-hander Jose Marte. Marte had gotten brief looks out of Anaheim’s bullpen across the past three seasons but struggled to a 8.14 ERA in 24 1/3 combined innings of work over those cups of coffee.
  • The Red Sox have non-tendered right-hander Wyatt Mills, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Mills, 28, did not appear in the big leagues this year and underwent Tommy John surgery over the summer.

Earlier Moves

  • The Rangers announced this evening that they have non-tendered right-hander Matt Bush and left-hander Brett Martin. Bush, 37, struggled to a 9.58 ERA with the Brewers this year and did not make an appearance with Texas. Martin missed the entire 2023 campaign with shoulder issues.
  • The Royals announced this evening that they have non-tendered outfielder Diego Hernandez, left-hander Austin Cox, catcher Logan Porter and right-hander Josh Staumont. All but Hernandez had already been designated for assignment by the club earlier this week. Hernandez has yet to appear in the majors during his career and slashed .245/.302/.291 in 60 games at the Double-A level this season.
  • The Athletics announced today that they did not tender a contract to infielder Kevin Smith. Smith joined the club in the trade that sent Matt Chapman to Toronto and slashed just .182/.218/.314 in 297 trips to the plate with Oakland over the last two seasons.
  • The Blue Jays are expected to non-tender right-hander Adam Cimber this evening, per Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC-2. A veteran of six MLB seasons, the 32-year-old Cimber struggled badly in 2023 with a 7.40 ERA in 22 appearances despite a strong 2.53 ERA in 149 appearances with Toronto between 2021 and 2022.
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