Trade Candidate: Tanner Roark
Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler will garner most of the headlines when it comes to rental starters who could move by the July 31 trade deadline. But for teams that aren’t able to win the bidding for either of them, Reds righty Tanner Roark is seemingly shaping up as a decent consolation price. That is, if the Reds – just 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot despite being five games under .500 – decide to sell Roark. Even if they keep the 32-year-old through the season, he’ll land on several teams’ radars in free agency during the winter.
Roark has been a mostly solid starting option since his career began in 2013 with the Nationals. He made 141 starts in D.C. from 2013-18, during which he posted a 3.61 ERA/3.94 FIP with 7.06 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate. Although Roark was a quality complement to front-end starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in recent years, the Nationals moved on from him last offseason in favor of new acquisitions Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez.
The Reds, seeking to revamp their rotation and make a playoff push in 2019, sent reliever Tanner Rainey to the Nationals for a year of control over Roark. Since then, Roark has held up his end of the bargain for a Cincinnati team whose rotation has indeed taken enormous steps ahead this season. Roark has pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.86 FIP in 92 1/3 innings and 17 starts, putting him on the cusp of his fourth consecutive season with at least 2.0 fWAR.
An increase in strikeouts has played an important role in Roark’s above-average run prevention in 2019. While he has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, Roark has impressively fanned just under a batter per inning this year. At the same time, he has walked a bit fewer than three per nine, giving him a 3.07 K/BB ratio which sits well above the league mean of 2.65.
Even though Roark has transferred to a home park which is more conducive to HRs, he hasn’t felt the sting thus far. Roark’s groundball percentage has decreased 5 percent since last year and sits at a paltry 35.7 percent, yet his home run-to-fly ball rate has actually dropped a little since 2018 (from 11.7 to 10.8). That has enabled Roark to manage decent numbers at home and on the road. It helps that Roark has generated more infield fly balls, aka automatic outs. At 12.9 percent, he ranks 14th among starters in that category.
Roark has also experienced somewhat of an uptick in velocity since last year. He’s still not going to blow anyone away with his average fastball (92.3 mph), slider (86.2), changeup (84.3) and curveball (76.1), but each pitch has risen around 1 mph compared to 2018. Roark has also mixed those pitches differently than he did a year ago. His sinker’s still his primary offering, but usage of it has plummeted 10 percent, per Statcast, which indicates Roark has turned to his slider about 10 percent more and his fastball at a 5 percent greater rate. According to FanGraphs’ linear weights, Roark’s fastball has been one of the best among starters in 2019.
Now for the bad news: FanGraphs shows the rest of Roark’s offerings all rate in the negatives this year. Although Roark has stifled righty batters, he flat-out hasn’t had an answer for lefties, who have slashed .290/.388/.531 against him. In essence, Roark has turned the typical lefty into Rafael Devers in 2019, in part because he’s yielding more damaging contact than he did in prior years. Roark’s hard-hit rate against is up more than 11 percent relative to his career, while he has surrendered soft contact about 4 percent less, according to FanGraphs. Statcast doesn’t provide any hope in that regard either, noting Roark ranks in the league’s 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He’s also far below average in terms of expected batting average (28th percentile), exit velocity (29th), expected weighted on-base average (34th) and expected slugging percentage (39th).
Teams with interest in Roark are no doubt aware of his blemishes, though those issues shouldn’t deter the Reds from finding a taker for him if they try to before the deadline. Roark’s near the top of the league when it comes to curve spin rate (80th percentile), so he could land with an organization which encourages him to utilize that pitch more. Regardless, for clubs that aren’t in position to win bidding wars for more hyped trade candidates such as Bumgarner, Wheeler, Matthew Boyd and Marcus Stroman, among others, Roark will hold appeal. Whether he finishes the season in Cincinnati or elsewhere, Roark will continue attempting to make a case for a raise over his $10MM salary as he prepares for an upcoming trip to free agency.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Reds Designate Zach Duke
The Reds have designated lefty Zach Duke for assignment, per a club announcement. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by righty Jimmy Herget, who’ll be in line to make his MLB debut.
Duke, 36, seemed like a nice free agent buy at a $2MM price point. He only carried a 4.15 ERA in 2018, but generally looked solid in most peripheral measures and dominated opposing lefties (.220/.283/.319).
Unfortunately, the bottom has fallen out in the veteran southpaw’s 15th MLB campaign. Duke’s typically double-digit swinging-strike rate has collapsed to 7.3% as his chase rate has plummeted to 23.5%. With hitters laying off of most everything out of the zone, Duke has fared quite poorly in the K/BB department with 18 apiece through 23 1/3 innings.
The Reds obviously ran out of hope of finding a solution, deciding instead to give a shot to the 25-year-old Herget. He was added to the 40-man over the winter but has yet to appear in the bigs. Through 37 2/3 frames this year at Triple-A, his second effort at the highest level of the minors, he’s carrying a 3.58 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9.
Injury Notes: Hendricks, Pence, Haniger, Treinen, A. Wood
The Cubs lost left-hander Cole Hamels to the injured list Friday, but there’s better news regarding fellow rotation stalwart Kyle Hendricks. The righty, who has been out two weeks because of shoulder inflammation, could return to the Cubs’ rotation as early as the upcoming week. It’s possible Hendricks will skip a rehab start and slot back into the team’s starting staff Tuesday, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. If that happens, the Cubs could get two Hendricks starts before the All-Star break. That would be a boon for NL Central-leading Chicago, whose rotation looks especially shaky at the moment without Hamels and Hendricks. Both starters have enjoyed terrific seasons thus far, with Hendricks having pitched to a 3.36 ERA/3.48 FIP and posted 7.64 K/9 against 1.63 BB/9 in 88 1/3 innings.
More on a few other injured notables…
- Rangers designated hitter/outfielder Hunter Pence will embark on a two-game minor league rehab stint beginning Monday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Barring setbacks, Pence will return to the Rangers on Wednesday. Pence has been out since June 17 with a right groin strain, but the stunning start the revived 36-year-old jumped out to before then earned him his fourth career All-Star nod. Thanks in no small part to Pence, who’s raking at a .294/.353/.608 clip (142 wRC+) with 15 home runs over 215 plate appearances, Texas owns a 46-37 record and a 1 1/2-game lead on the AL’s last wild-card spot.
- Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger won’t return until sometime after the All-Star break, manager Scott Servais announced Saturday (via Greg Johns of MLB.com). The Mariners had been hopeful Haniger would come back a bit before then, but the ruptured testicle he suffered June 6 will ultimately keep him out at least five weeks.
- Athletics closer Blake Treinen is on track to come off the IL on Wednesday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com tweets. In the meantime, Treinen’s likely to pitch a rehab game Monday. The A’s placed Treinen on the shelf last Saturday with a right shoulder strain, continuing a disappointing campaign for the 30-year-old. Arguably the majors’ premier reliever in 2018, Treinen has recorded a pedestrian 4.08 ERA/4.11 FIP with 9.17 K/9, 5.35 BB/9 and a 43.2 percent groundball rate in 35 1/3 innings this season.
- Reds lefty Alex Wood has dealt with multiple setbacks in his recovery from a back injury, an issue that has stopped him from pitching in the majors this year. But he’ll make another attempt to progress toward a rehab assignment, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer relays. Wood plans to throw off flat ground Sunday, and the Reds will determine his next step thereafter. “We’re keeping our fingers crossed, hopeful that it wasn’t too big of a setback for him,” manager David Bell said of the latest setback Wood suffered earlier this week.
Minor MLB Transactions: 6/28/19
Friday’s minor moves from around baseball…
- The Reds have released right-hander Nick Travieso, per Doug Gray of RedsMinorLeagues.com. This ends a long Reds tenure for Travieso, who had been a member of the organization since it selected him 14th overall in the 2012 draft. As Gray explains, though, the 25-year-old Travieso’s velocity hasn’t returned to previous levels since shoulder issues kept him out of action from the end of the 2016 campaign until earlier this season. Travieso threw just three innings in rookie ball this year before the Reds said goodbye to him.
- Orioles lefty Sean Gilmartin has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk, the team announced. The Orioles designated Gilmartin for assignment Tuesday after he gave up five earned runs in 2 1/3 innings during his lone major league start of 2019. The 29-year-old has been far better this season in Norfolk, where he has pitched to a 2.48 ERA/2.83 FIP with 9.91 K/9, 2.72 BB/9 and a 47.9 percent groundball rate in 36 1/3 innings and 17 appearances (two starts).
Reds Activate Scooter Gennett
The Reds are welcoming one of their best hitters back to the lineup, as they announced Friday that second baseman Scooter Gennett has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Cincinnati already had an open spot on its 40-man roster, so the only corresponding roster move came in the form of placing catcher Tucker Barnhart on the 10-day injured list due to a strained right oblique muscle.
Gennett, 29, has proven to be one of the best waiver claims in recent history. Designated for assignment by the division-rival Brewers in Spring Training 2017, Gennett has broken out as an everyday player and an All-Star since being claimed by his hometown team.
In 295 games and 1135 plate appearances with the Reds, he’s mashed at a .303/.351/.508 clip while teeing off on 50 homers, 52 doubles and six triples. One of the main knocks on Gennett in Milwaukee was a perceived inability to hit left-handed pitching, but he’s earned more at-bats against southpaws as his tenure with the Reds has progressed. In 202 plate appearances against lefties in 2018, Gennett batted .294/.335/.439. That breakout led to a $9.75MM salary for Gennett in his final trip through arbitration this past offseason.
A severe groin strain incurred toward the tail end of Spring Training ultimately cost Gennett half of the 2019 season — a crushing loss both for the Reds and for Gennett himself, who is slated to become a free agent at season’s end. His absence has undeniably been felt by a Reds lineup that somewhat surprisingly is tied for the fifth-fewest runs scored in all of Major League Baseball. Cincinnati hitters rank as a bottom-six team in terms of batting average and on-base percentage as well.
Gennett’s return could push another surprise slugger, Derek Dietrich, the outfield with more regularity. He’s batted .222/.350/.567 with a career-best 18 home runs and seen regular work at second base thanks to his power surge. But Dietrich has experience in the outfield corners, at first base and at third base, so he could bounce around the diamond a bit more now that Gennett is back in the fold.
As for Barnhart, he’ll hit the injured list with an oblique issue, leaving Curt Casali as the primary backstop and Kyle Farmer as the reserve. The 28-year-old Barnhart is in the midst of his worst season at the plate, having batted just .191/.290/.315 in 187 plate appearances. That downturn in production comes on the heels of a combined .257/.331/.374 batting line over his previous four seasons.
Alex Wood Suffers Setback
Reds left-hander Alex Wood had finally been moving toward his 2019 debut, but that’s now on hold. Wood “felt some soreness” while stretching and will see a doctor for a follow-up appointment, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.
Wood, out all season because of back issues, had been scheduled for his first rehab start this Thursday. He was supposed to throw a bullpen session Tuesday in preparation for that outing, but it didn’t occur because of his soreness.
This is hardly the first setback of 2019 for Wood, who has been battling back troubles since late February. Those problems have stopped the 28-year-old from helping the Reds, who landed Wood as one of their key offseason acquisitions, and from making a case for a payday in free agency during the upcoming winter. Plus, while the 36-40 Reds are potentially lining up as sellers entering the July 31 trade deadline, it appears they can forget about flipping Wood for anything remotely valuable.
Wood came to Cincinnati last winter as one of the hurlers who was supposed to fix what had been a terrible rotation. Hoping Wood would help rescue their starting staff, the Reds acquired him in a late-December blockbuster with the Dodgers. Six months later, Cincy’s rotation has taken sizable steps forward, but Wood hasn’t been able to contribute at all.
Wood, to his credit, still owns an impressive 3.29 ERA/3.36 FIP in 803 1/3 career innings divided between Atlanta and LA. However, it continues to look as if Wood will have a hard time building on his 2019 salary of $9.65MM if he reaches free agency in the coming months.
Injury Notes: Soroka, Manaea, Gennett, Wood
Braves right-hander Mike Soroka was removed from today’s game after being hit by a pitch by Austin Voth. Soroka was struck in his right forearm, and while he took his base and finished the inning, he didn’t return to the mound in the bottom half of the frame. The team announced that Soroka was removed “as a precaution,” and MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted that x-rays on Soroka’s forearm were negative. It doesn’t appear as if the injury is too serious, which is undoubtedly a big relief for both the Braves and the rookie sensation. While advanced metrics indicate that Soroka’s grounder-heavy (57% ground ball rate) arsenal is due for some regression, his 2.07 ERA over 78 1/3 innings has been a huge boost to an inconsistent Atlanta rotation.
Here’s more on some injury situations from around the game…
- After throwing 60 pitches in a simulated game on Thursday, Sean Manaea‘s rehab has been halted after the southpaw reported soreness in his right side, Athletics manager Bob Melvin told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other media. “He’s got a little bit of a side soreness, so we’re shutting him down for a little bit. I don’t know if it’s an oblique or if he’s just feeling it a little bit in his side,” Melvin said. “We’re cutting back on him for a little bit here to get healthy. It’s not the arm, which is good.” There isn’t any known timetable for when Manaea could begin throwing again, though Melvin didn’t seem to consider the issue to be major. The A’s were projecting a possible return for Manaea after the All-Star break, as the left-hander was slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment following his last simulated outing. Manaea hasn’t pitched since August 24, 2018 after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.
- Scooter Gennett‘s rehab assignment shifts from high-A ball to Triple-A this week, and Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that “there’s a chance” Gennett could be activated off the injured list on Friday, when the Reds begin a series against the Cubs. The club will be as careful as possible with Gennett’s recovery process, of course, as the second baseman has yet to play this season due to a severe groin strain. Gennett’s minor league rehab stint can last up to 20 days in length, and he only just got back on the field earlier this week.
- Alex Wood, another Reds player who has yet to see action this season, is scheduled for his first rehab start on Thursday, Bell said. Back problems have kept Wood out of action since late February, and he isn’t expected to be a candidate to join Cincinnati’s roster until after the All-Star break. “We can’t rush it and he hasn’t had a Spring Training. We have to build him up,” Bell said.
Wandy Peralta Switches Agencies
Reds left-handed reliever Wandy Peralta has hired The MAS+ Agency to represent him, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.
The 27-year-old Peralta debuted in 2016 with the Reds, who signed him as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2010. The hard-throwing Peralta showed promise in 2017, his first extensive look in the majors, but he has fallen off since then. Peralta now owns a 4.89 ERA/4.64 FIP with 7.26 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 50.5 percent groundball rate in 140 innings. He hasn’t been able to completely stifle same-handed batters, who have hit .254/.349/.386 against him since he debuted in the bigs.
While Peralta’s numbers aren’t anything to write home about, his agency switch is relevant because he’s on track to reach arbitration for the first time during the upcoming offseason. Peralta’s also on schedule to hit free agency after the 2022 campaign.
MLBTR will note Peralta’s agency change in our Agency Database. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Reds To Maintain 2019 Spending Levels Into 2020
The Cincinnati Reds grabbed headlines this winter by announcing an increase in payroll and subsequently trading for an LA starter kit that included Alex Wood, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Kyle Farmer. In terms of on-field contributions, the move hasn’t exactly been a rousing success for the Redlegs. Wood has yet to pitch for the Reds because of a back injury. Puig’s .235/.280/.446 line has been accompanied by strikeout and walk rates moving in the wrong direction. Kemp chipped in -0.9 rWAR in 60 at-bats before his unceremonious release. In fact, whether by rWAR (0.6) or fWAR (0.3), Farmer has been the strongest contributor of the bunch.
And yet, while this buy-three-get-one-free deal brought Wood (~$9.65MM), Puig (~$9.6MM), and Kemp ($21.75MM) on relatively hefty deals, importantly, none carry financial obligations following the 2019 season. The players themselves may move on, but the payroll increase is likely to stay, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The Reds see a window of contention now, and they want to capitalize. With only a little more than $57MM currently on the payroll for 2020 (per Roster Resource), count the Reds as buyers in free agency. They entered 2019 with a record-high $133MM payroll.
Of course, the Reds top two offensive contributors in rWAR this season are two players brought in on minor league deals: Derek Dietrich and Jose Iglesias. They may be ready to spend, but as they found out last offseason, that’s not always as easy as it sounds. Still, along with this week’s earlier report that said the Reds were in the market for a controllable hitter, it seems the Reds are itching to make an impact move.
Reds Reportedly “Open To Adding A Controllable Hitter”
The Reds are “open to adding a controllable hitter” this summer, according to a recent report from MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).
This bit of scuttlebutt seems mostly to reflect a few self-evident realities about the Cincinnati org’s situation. The Reds have steadily moved back into plausible contention in the National League Central and the NL Wild Card race. The club’s pitching staff has generally performed admirably while its bats have been surprisingly silent. Looking up and down the 2019 stat sheet, you’ll find a whole lot of average or worse hitters on this Cincinnati club.
Doing the math … Quite a few obstacles still separate the team from the postseason, so a present-and-future move would arguably be most sensible. Outwardly, at least, the lineup is an area for improvement. x+y = “controllable hitter.”
But does that really tell us anything about how the Reds will actually approach the deadline? For one thing, there’s still ample uncertainty in the team’s actual competitive position. It’s not hard at all to imagine the club slipping into the status of a rental seller, or stepping up to be a clear rental buyer. The Reds already invested in a series of one-year assets over the winter, so why wouldn’t they consider more if they are in relatively strong position come late July? Even if the club won’t go wild for the best rental pieces, it could certainly see value in some added relief depth and bench bats that make for nice platoon fits.
Neither is the area of need fixed in stone. Entering the year, the questions were in the pitching staff; some may yet arise. While Alex Wood has been sidelined (he’s now on the road back), the team has been quite fortunate to sport a five-man rotation unit that has taken all but one of the team’s starts and performed beyond expectations. The bullpen has been excellent but isn’t without potential questions of its own. Meanwhile, the talented slate of hitters may — some might argue, probably will — get things going in earnest. Rental bat Yasiel Puig is doing just that. Ditto Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, and Nick Senzel, each of whom joined Derek Dietrich in posting a strong past thirty days at the plate. (That includes Dietrich’s late-May burst; he has slumped of late.) Let’s not forget that Scooter Gennett is now on a rehab assignment, too.
It isn’t entirely obvious what position would best be targeted, either. You could say catcher, but good luck finding a quality, controllable bat in that spot. The outfield is far from perfect, but it looks increasingly accounted for with Puig and Winker hitting alongside Senzel. With Gennett’s return, Dietrich may need to find more of his opportunities on the grass. The left side of the infield isn’t exactly mashing, but Eugenio Suarez is a fixture at third and Jose Iglesias has provided excellent value at shortstop.
It’s always worth paying attention to indications of a team’s own assessment of its needs. But this particular early signal seems a bit too vague to have all that much informational value in divining the shape of the summer trade market. The Reds are certainly an interesting team to watch. They may well end up in a sort of opportunistic hold position, standing pat with most current MLB assets while exploring the addition of a controllable hitter at some position or another. But it seems just as likely that the club will end up simply selling a few of its pending free agents or buying a couple of veteran bench pieces.