- The Reds announced a pair of promotions yesterday. Shawn Pender will become VP of player development, while Eric Lee becomes the team’s senior director of player development. Clearly, both will be trusted with bringing along the organization’s young talent. But the intake process is still in line for change as well. The club is seeking an international scouting director in advance of some ramped-up efforts there, with MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon noting that president of baseball operations Dick Williams suggested it’s likely to be an outside hire.
Reds Rumors
5 Middle Infielders That Posted Surprisingly Strong 2018 Seasons
It’s an exceedingly quiet day on the transactional front, which affords an opportunity to look at some higher-level developments around the game as the 2018 season comes to an end. My perusal of the stat pages revealed that there are several interesting middle infielders — by trade, if not always by use this year — who have posted surprisingly strong campaigns.
There are obviously other shortstops and second basemen who have likewise excelled beyond expectations — e.g. Scooter Gennett and Trevor Story — but it feels as if they’ve received proper recognition and examination already. It’s worth taking a closer look at this handful of players:
- Jurickson Profar, Rangers: Yes, folks, the former top overall prospect in baseball has finally arrived … at the ripe old age of, um, 25. Through 567 plate appearances this season, Profar has produced a .255/.337/.457 slash with 18 home runs and ten steals. He has gone down on strikes just 79 times while drawing 52 walks. While the defensive work hasn’t been valued as highly — whether due to frequent position shifts, Profar’s shoulder issues, short-sample blips, or otherwise — he has made up for that with highly valued work on the bases. All said, it’s the sort of campaign that was once envisioned for a player who debuted at 19 years of age. He’ll remain arbitration eligible for two more campaigns and could step in at third base if Adrian Beltre departs, though Profar’s capabilities in the middle infield still help buttress the Rangers’ options (including in potential trade scenarios).
- Johan Camargo Braves: While Camargo has been handling third base this year, and doing so with aplomb, he spent most of his time in the minors at short and could still factor there in the future, so he gets a spot on this list. Interesting young infielders abound in Atlanta, but this one has come from way off the radar to turn in a season every bit as impressive (if not moreso) than those of his more celebrated brethren. If his 2017 results suggested some likelihood of regression, Camargo’s 2018 follow-up indicates that he has made serious strides. Through 499 plate appearances, he owns a .273/.353/.457 slash with 18 home runs. He’s drawing free passes in ten percent of his trips to the dish (double his rookie rate) while strikeout out twenty percent of the time. Only a surprisingly poor baserunning grade (-3.4 BsR) has held him to an even 3.0 fWAR on the season.
- Joey Wendle, Rays: Entering his age-28 season, Wendle had appeared in just 36 MLB contests. Thus far in 2018, he has contributed 521 plate appearances of .301/.356/.439 hitting with seven long balls and 15 steals. Wendle may struggle to sustain those numbers, given that he’s relying upon a hefty .355 BABIP and isn’t quite supported by Statcast (.341 wOBA vs. .320 xwOBA). Still, he offers value in the other facets of the game and at worst seems to be quite a useful, affordable asset for the surprising Rays. It’s all the better for Tampa Bay given that Wendle was acquired out of DFA limbo over the winter.
- Marcus Semien, Athletics: We can probably stop waiting for Semien to break out at the plate. He’s yet again firmly ensconced between the 90 and 100 wRC+ range — smack dab in the middle, in fact, at 95. He might finish with only about half the dingers he smacked in 2016 (27), but is reaching base at a palatable enough clip. So … his inclusion on this list is almost entirely dependent upon what one thinks of his glovework. Semien is humming along at +8 DRS and +7.8 UZR after mostly posting poor metrics in past seasons. He hasn’t entirely eliminated the errors that once plagued him, though with twenty this year he’s still well shy of the 35 he recorded in 2015. What he is doing is earning big marks for ranging to balls and converting them into outs. The result? 3.6 fWAR and 4.0 rWAR.
- Jose Peraza, Reds: There isn’t a ton to get excited about with Peraza, who has posted solidly average marks in most regards while providing an extra boost on the bases. Still, that makes him a potential regular player — much more than he seemed capable of after his first full MLB run in 2017. At 24 years of age, he’s youthful and controllable. Peraza has made clear strides in the power department, where he has socked nearly as many dingers (13) as he had at all levels in the prior three seasons combined (14). He’s also converting his frequent contact into a high-enough batting average (.290) to support a reasonable on-base percentage (.328) despite a piddling (albeit still-improving) 4.4% walk rate. Though the defensive metrics aren’t in love with the glove, it’s good enough to hold down the position. The overall package is sufficient to induce the Reds to pencil in Peraza at short for some time, giving top prospect Nick Senzel a look in the corner outfield this fall rather than exploring other potential infield configurations.
Latest On Riggleman's Chances At Being Named Permanent Manager
- In light of recent reports that interim Reds manager Jim Riggleman is a favorite of owner Bob Castellini, Heyman adds that Riggleman additionally has numerous fans in the Cincinnati front office. The 65-year-old Riggleman has a decent chance at being tabbed the team’s long-term skipper, though former Red Sox manager John Farrell will be among those considered to step into that role as well. The Reds hired Farrell to work for them in a scouting capacity last offseason.
Silver Linings: National League Central
We looked yesterday at the silver linings for out-of-the-race clubs in the American League Central. Today, we’ll hop over to their National League counterparts. Given the successes of the team’s three best clubs, we’re only considering a pair of organizations this time around.
The most promising development to occur in these otherwise unsuccessful 2018 NL Central campaigns (with link to current depth chart):
Pirates: Rotation Core
It has been a rollercoaster year for the Bucs, who sprinted into the trade deadline but faded after doing some limited buying. Of course, the club’s mid-season acquisitions weren’t just aimed at the 2018 season, but they assuredly were designed to enhance the organization’s chances of contending over the next couple of seasons.
Given that the club has sought to consolidate its talent at the MLB level for the next few seasons, it seems fair to focus here on young major-league talent rather than further-off prospects. In that regard, the development of a new core of controllable starters is a notable turn of events that has perhaps gone unappreciated amidst the attention showered upon the acquisition of — and price paid for — Chris Archer.
By most measures, the Pirates had a middle-of-the-road rotation this year. But it achieved those results at a minimal cost. The 2019 staff looks to have plenty of talent and will again be dirt cheap. Archer and Ivan Nova are earning only $16MM, while a four-pack of young starters — Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, and Nick Kingham — all remain shy of arbitration eligibility.
Taillon has entrenched himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm. Williams and Musgrove have each at least established that they are high-quality rotation pieces. (The former has outperformed his peripherals somewhat while the opposite is true of the latter.) And though he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard in his debut effort, Kingham has otherwise shown a MLB-worthy skillset. Plus, top-twenty leaguewide prospect Mitch Keller is knocking on the door, even if surgery for Chad Kuhl hurts the depth picture.
The case for the Pirates as a surprisingly strong 2019 contender begins with the idea that they’ll have a deep, capable, and affordable rotation. But it also relies upon some other recent developments. The bullpen has a similarly promising core unit in the works, with five controllable sub-3.00 ERA hurlers on board (including deadline addition Keone Kela). The resurgence of Francisco Cervelli, bounceback of Starling Marte, and arrival of Adam Frazier (who has thrived) and Kevin Newman (who has not) are all worthy of note. There have been less-than-encouraging developments as well, such as Gregory Polanco’s injury, but the Bucs could be an interesting team to watch, especially if they are able to make some strategic investments in areas of need this winter.
Reds: Middle-Infield Magic
There was a theory circulating in the middle of the season that the Reds were on the cusp of contention, having played roughly .500 ball since Jim Riggleman replaced Bryan Price in the managerial role. That concept has fallen out of favor. After all, since the calendar flipped to August, the Cincinnati club carries a 17-29 record.
Still, the organization does have some hope to carry with it out of 2018. In particular, it seems to have resolved some things in the middle infield. Scooter Gennett only has one season left before reaching free agency, but there’s ample indication he’ll engage with the team in offseason extension talks. Certainly, he has doubled down on a breakout 2017 campaign and proven worthy of everyday status — though his future value to the organization will certainly depend upon the price of a new deal, if it’s struck.
The shortstop position, meanwhile, had been in question since Zack Cozart departed, but the team now has a potential solution. Jose Peraza certainly hasn’t graded as a stellar defender there, but he has been within range of average with the glove. And his work at the plate has turned around after a worrisome 2017 campaign. Through 647 plate appearances in 2018, Peraza has hit at a roughly league-average .290/.329/.421 rate (99 wRC+) with 13 home runs and 23 steals. With his excellent baserunning added into the equation, he has been worth 2.5 fWAR and 2.1 rWAR.
If top prospect Nick Senzel gets healthy and comfortable in the corner outfield this fall, the Reds could have a strong position-player unit in place. Unfortunately, what this club really needed was a shinier silver lining from its pitching staff. Luis Castillo did bounce back from a rough opening to the season and Anthony DeSclafani is finally back on the bump. And there were some strong bullpen performances, even if the peripherals tell a much less promising tale. But the club also perhaps cast away the hidden gem it unearthed by trading Dylan Floro, who has thrived with the Dodgers. It got worrying news on top pitching prospect Hunter Greene. Several young starters failed to establish themselves (Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano) or were limited by injury (Brandon Finnegan), while Homer Bailey’s malaise continued. Robert Stephenson showed promise at Triple-A but then struggled in a brief MLB rotation stint, was bumped to the bullpen, and ended up on the DL with shoulder problems.
Needless to say, there’s still vast uncertainty in the staff in 2019 and beyond. Finding a way to a quality 2019 pitching unit remains a difficult, but critical, task for the Cinci front office.
Reds Notes: Lorenzen, Manager Search
- Michael Lorenzen will start the Reds’ game against the Brewers on Tuesday, interim manager Jim Riggleman told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other media. Lorenzen has pitched exclusively as a reliever from 2016-18, posting solid numbers as a setup man and multi-inning reliever out of the Reds’ bullpen. He has often expressed an interest in returning to starting pitching, however, and was stretched out as a starter last Spring Training before some poor numbers and a shoulder injury necessitated a return to the bullpen. “But we are looking at ’19 and who is going to be our starters,” Riggleman said. “We have an idea who some of them will be, but we will look at Mike here a little bit. It’ll be a very small sample, but we’ll get a little feel for it.”
- In other Reds news, president of baseball operations Dick Williams confirmed to reporters (including John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that Riggleman will receive an interview for the full-time managerial position. Besides that, Williams was short on details about the managerial search, other than to say that no interviews have yet taken place, and the Reds wouldn’t be publicly commenting on which people were or weren’t candidates. Fay speculates that the team will stick with Riggleman if they want an experienced “traditional pick” of a manager, though it remains to be seen what sort of more outside-the-box names (if any) could be considered.
NL Notes: Harper, D-Backs, Buchholz, Senzel, DeGrom
As ever, there’s plenty of water-cooler chatter about the eventual destination of Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, who — had you not heard? — is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. Particularly for fans of a Nats organization that is just weeks away from wrapping up a brutally disappointing campaign, it’s a subject of much attention. So eyebrows were raised recently at comments from Harper and, especially, club president of baseball ops/GM Mike Rizzo that could be interpreted as hinting at a reunion. In an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), Harper at least acknowledged a reunion is possible, saying that “it’s going to be an exciting future for the Nationals, and we’ll see if I’m in those plans.” Innocuous enough, to be sure, but perhaps the line could be interpreted as a wink toward contract talks. As for Rizzo, Chris Lingebach of 106.7 The Fan rounded things up. Those interested in parsing the words fully should click the link, but the key phrase at issue from Rizzo is his statement that he “won’t discuss [negotiations with Harper’s camp] until there’s something to announce.” Did the tight-lipped, hard-nosed GM tip his hand? It’s at most an arguable point.
From this vantage point, there’s enough here to make you think, but hardly a clear indication as to how Harper’s fascinating free agency will turn out. Here’s the latest from the National League:
- The Diamondbacks had held a strong position in the postseason race for much of the season, but as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, they’re now left hoping for a memorable late-season comeback to get in. “[B]reakdowns occurring in every facet of their game,” Piecoro writes, have spurred a ghastly 4-16 run that has reversed the team’s fortunes. Unfortunately, odds are that the Arizona club will head back to the drawing board at season’s end — while watching two significant players (A.J. Pollock and lefty Patrick Corbin) hit the open market. Still, it’s notable that the club has largely followed up on its successful 2017 campaign, as the thought in some quarters entering the year was that there wasn’t really enough talent to keep pace.
- As is also covered in the above-linked piece, the D-Backs suffered an unwelcome blow in advance of tonight’s loss when they were forced to scratch righty Clay Buchholz. The veteran hurler has been an immense asset for Arizona, throwing 98 1/3 innings of 2.01 ERA ball since joining the club in mid-season as a minor-league signee. He’s now headed to Phoenix for testing, though the hope still seems to be that he’ll return this year. Regardless, it’s unfortunate news for the team but even more disappointing for the 34-year-old, who has dealt with plenty of health problems of late and will be reentering the open market at season’s end.
- It has long been wondered what the Reds Baseball America points outwill do when they are ready to call up top prospect Nick Senzel, who’s blocked at his natural position of third base. We may be seeing the hints of an answer; as , Senzel is listed as an outfielder in the organization’s instructional league roster. That hardly guarantees anything, of course, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Senzel — who’s opportunity for a late-2018 callup was taken by a finger injury — come into camp in 2019 looking to crack the roster in the corner outfield. Just how it’ll all play out, though, remains to be seen.
- Speaking of top prospects … among his many notes today, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes that the Mets took a targeted approach to discussions with other teams regarding ace righty Jacob deGrom. As Heyman puts it, the New York organization “focused” on the handful of clubs it deemed to have assets worth haggling over. When those teams weren’t willing to give up their best young assets, talks sputtered. Heyman cites “the Blue Jays, Braves, Padres, Yankees, and perhaps to a lesser extent the Brewers” as clubs that were engaged. But the ultra-premium prospects and young MLB players in those organizations simply weren’t on offer. It’s hard to argue with the Mets’ rationale; deGrom reached a new level this season, after all, and certainly shouldn’t be parted with by a major-market club for less than a compelling return.
Reds Pull Homer Bailey From Rotation, At Least Temporarily
- Reds righty Homer Bailey has made 20 starts this season. The Reds have won just one of those outings, largely because of the 6.09 ERA the once-solid Bailey has put up over 106 1/3 innings. The club temporarily pulled the plug on Bailey’s time in its rotation Friday, removing him in favor of fellow righty Tyler Mahle, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer was among those to report. However, the Reds still owe the 32-year-old Bailey $23MM next season, so they don’t seem ready to give up on him. “Right now, he’s going to be just working on his mechanics and video and so forth to improve himself any way he can and be ready for the offseason,” interim manager Jim Riggleman said. “I don’t anticipate him pitching in games in the bullpen.” Whether Bailey will start or relieve in 2019 isn’t yet clear, nor is it a sure thing he’s equipped to work in relief after starting in all 212 career appearances to this point. Asked if a full offseason of preparation would leave him ready to come out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2019, Bailey told C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription required), “I don’t know.”
Heyman: Brewers Offered Reds "Triple-A Non Prospects" For Matt Harvey
Even though the Reds are out of contention and right-hander Matt Harvey is a pending free agent, the club opted against trading him to the NL Central rival Brewers before last month’s waiver deadline. Milwaukee won the claim for Harvey, but it turns out the Brewers only offered “Triple-A non-prospects” for the 29-year-old, Jon Heyman of Fancred hears. Considering that, not to mention Reds owner Bob Castellini’s reported affinity for Harvey, Cincinnati kept the ex-Met and will likely try to prevent him from leaving via free agency. Pitching will be an area of focus in general for the Reds during the offseason, per Heyman, who adds they may also be on the lookout for one or two outfielders.
Riggleman Expects To Be One Of Many Reds Managerial Candidates
- Jim Riggleman hasn’t spoken to the Reds’ front office yet about shedding the interim label from his job title, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently wrote. Though Cincinnati has performed better under Riggleman than under Bryan Price earlier this season, Riggleman told Fay he still expects to be one of many candidates. “When the change was made, Dick [Williams] was the GM,” said Riggleman.“He basically said we’re going to interview a lot of people and have a long list. … My understanding is that’s what’s going to happen.” Fay notes that Riggleman is a favorite of team owner Bob Castellini, suggesting that if the Reds go with a more “old school” approach in the dugout, Riggleman is the favorite to stay with the Reds on a more permanent basis. The organization has become more analytical under the current front office regime, though, and it’s not clear what style of manager they’d prefer.
Reds Select Tim Federowicz, Gabby Guerrero
The Reds announced today that they have selected the contracts of catcher Tim Federowicz and outfielder Gabby Guerrero. To create 40-man space, the organization recalled righty Keury Mella and placed him on the 60-day DL.
That pair of newcomers to the MLB roster will be joined by righty Tyler Mahle. The well-regarded young hurler has already spent most of the season in the majors, of course.
Federowicz joined the Reds earlier this year on a minors pact after he was cut loose from the Astros. The 31-year-old will now have seen time with five MLB clubs over parts of seven seasons. Though he hasn’t hit all that well thus far at the Triple-A level in the Cincinnati organization, and is a marginal hitter in his limited experience at the game’s highest level, Federowicz will provide some welcome catching depth down the stretch. He’ll be eligible for arbitration at season’s end, though it stands to reason that he’ll be allowed to test the open market.
As for Guerrero, he originally came to the Cincinnati organization on a waiver claim, then was non-tendered and re-signed in the winter of 2016. Today’s news means that he’ll beat his cousin, elite Blue Jays prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr., to the big leagues. Of course, Gabby is now 24 years of age, so he had more than a five-year head start. He earned his way up after a solid year in the upper minors, during which he slashed .293/.328/.474 with 19 home runs in 539 plate appearances.
