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Reds, Cubs Have Discussed Shane Bieber With Guardians

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Former American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is a year from reaching the open market, and the Guardians have discussed potential trade scenarios involving the 28-year-old righty with the Cubs and Reds, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Other clubs have surely reached out on Bieber’s potential availability as well, and Morosi notes that the Cubs have also inquired on Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, who’s widely known to be available. Cincinnati was also linked to Glasnow just yesterday.

Bieber’s 2023 season was arguably his worst since his 2018 rookie season, though that’s a testament to his overall track record more than an indictment on his ’23 output. Forearm and elbow troubles limited him to 128 innings this past season, but he pitched to a solid 3.80 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound and averaged better than six frames per start.

That said, it’s worth highlighting that Bieber’s status as a former Cy Young winner probably gives him more name recognition and name value among fans than actual trade value among MLB front offices. Solid as his ’23 results were when he was on the active roster, his performance carried plenty of red flags. Bieber’s fastball velocity has steadily declined since that 2020 Cy Young win, and last year’s average of 91.6 mph was nearly three miles slower than during his 2020 peak. Bieber fanned a ridiculous 41.1% of opponents during the pandemic shortened season, but that mark dropped to 33.1% the following year, 25% in 2022 and a below-average 20.1% in 2023.

Bieber’s walk and ground-ball rates remain strong, but neither is quite elite. After posting ridiculous swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates of 17.1% and 37% in 2020, he checked in below the league average in both last year: 10.5% and 30.6%, respectively. Bieber has never held top-of-the-scale rankings in terms of hard contact allowed, but he’s previously missed so many bats that yielding hard contact at average-ish rates didn’t matter. That’s no longer the case, given the lack of punchouts, and last year saw Bieber post career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%). Those marks are as rough as they sound; Bieber ranked in the second percentile of MLB pitchers in average exit velocity and the third percentile in hard-hit rate.

Be that as it may, Bieber’s broader track record surely buys him some faith from other clubs, and it’s of course eminently possible that some of those red flags are attributable to health troubles that are now hopefully behind him. It’s a deep free-agent class for pitching, but not every club is going to fill its needs via the open market. Bieber still holds clear trade value, even if teams likely all agree that the 2020 version of the one-time ace probably isn’t going to resurface.

For both the Reds and the Cubs, there’s good sense in pursuing Bieber. Cincinnati boasts an exciting crop of young position players and several talented but yet-unproven rotation candidates. Bieber would give them a veteran anchor to pair with the likes of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson. Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cubs have an established top three in the rotation (Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon) but less certainty beyond that veteran trio, with Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks among their still-emerging options.

Adding a steady veteran like Bieber to stabilize things surely holds appeal for either club as they set their sights on a weak NL Central. The Reds, in particular, should have no problem absorbing Bieber’s final year of club control; whereas the Cubs already have more than $178MM in projected payroll, Cincinnati’s 2024 outlay is scarcely more than $50MM right now. Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile are the only guaranteed contracts on the books, and their arbitration class is quite small.

From a bigger-picture standpoint, a trade of Bieber — or at least the discussion of one — should come as no surprise for fans who’ve followed how Cleveland has operated over the years. The Guardians churn out high-end starting pitching arguably better than any club in baseball but never let their top arms reach free agency. Part of the process that has helped Cleveland find continued success despite perennially bottom-of-the-barrel payrolls has been selling high on established starters in exchange for controllable young talent. The team’s unrivaled success in pitching development, paired with those regular influxes of young talent, have kept them competitive in a light AL Central division.

For example, none of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer or Mike Clevinger reached the open market in a Cleveland uniform. Kluber was flipped to the Rangers in a deal netting current closer Emmanuel Clase. Carrasco went to the Mets alongside Francisco Lindor in return for Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario. Bauer brought Franmil Reyes and a Yasiel Puig rental to Cleveland. Clevinger netted several players, headlined by Josh Naylor, pitching prospect Joey Cantillo, infielder Gabriel Arias and righty Cal Quantrill — who was recently traded himself (to the Rockies) on the heels of a down season.

Despite all the star-caliber pitchers who break out in Cleveland, the Guardians have never held onto one long enough to make a qualifying offer and collect a compensatory draft pick. Bieber would be a QO candidate next winter if he stays put, but his age, track record and reasonable $12.2MM projected arbitration salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) should be enough to yield greater value than a potential comp pick in what would be the 2025 MLB draft.

Even as they’ve traded away so many arms, the Guardians haven’t ever felt compelled to backfill the rotation via free agency. The last time they signed a free-agent starter to a big league deal was nearly a decade ago when taking a $4MM flier on then bounceback candidate Gavin Floyd. The last multi-year deal they gave to a free-agent starting pitcher was nearly two decades ago: Paul Byrd.

The 2024 season has a good chance to represent a continuation of those trends. Even if Bieber is traded, Cleveland already graduated three top prospects — Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams — who all hit the ground running as rookies. Triston McKenzie dealt with an ominous elbow injury but finished the season healthy. If he can avoid further issues, he’s shown the ability to be an upper-echelon starter himself (191 innings, 2.96 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate in 2022). In-house names like Cantillo, Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis could all vie for the fifth spot in the rotation, and it’s eminently possible that a Bieber trade (or another offseason swap) could net Cleveland a potential rotation candidate to join that group.

Guardians Announce Finalized Coaching Staff, Name Craig Albernaz Bench Coach

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The Guardians finalized their coaching staff today, announcing that Rouglas Odor has been promoted to infield coach while Brad Goldberg has been promoted to bullpen coach. Kai Correa, who was previously reported to be coming aboard to take some unknown role, will be the major league field coordinator. The Guards had previously announced that Craig Albernaz would be in that role, though he was announced today as the bench coach, freeing up his previous title for Correa. Zack Meisel of The Athletic adds that Odor will coach third base as well.

Albernaz has been the bullpen coach for the Giants for the last four seasons but will now be in the Cleveland dugout as the bench coach, serving as the top lieutenant to first-time manager Stephen Vogt. The two should be plenty familiar with each other, having both played in the minor league system of the Rays from 2007 to 2012.

Correa was previously a part of the Cleveland organization, working in the minor leagues in 2018 and 2019. He then went to the Giants and served as bench coach and infield coordinator for a few years before now returning to the Guardians for the 2024 season.

Odor has been tied to the organization for quite a long time, having played minor league ball for them in the ’80s and ’90s. The uncle of Rougned Odor and his brother Rougned Odor, Rouglas moved into a minor league coaching role in 1996, working at a Venezuelan academy run by the club. He has worked his way up the ladder since then, having served as manager of Double-A Akron for the past five years.

Goldberg pitched in the majors for the White Sox, getting into 11 games in 2017. After his playing days ended, he turned to coaching with the Ohio State Buckeyes. He was hired by the Guardians last year, joining Double-A Akron as their pitching coach, but now will quickly ascend to the majors.

Guardians Hire Kai Correa For Coaching Role

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Former Giants bench coach and interim manager Kai Correa is joining the Guardians’ coaching staff, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray and Jeff Young (X link).  Correa’s specific role on staff isn’t yet known, but he has past ties to the organization, working as an infield coach and defensive coordinator for Cleveland’s complex league and short-season minor league teams in 2018-19.

From there, Correa joined the Giants as the bench coach and infield coordinator under new manager Gabe Kapler prior to the start of the 2020 campaign.  When Kapler was fired late in the 2023 season, Correa stepped into managerial duties for San Francisco’s last three games.  He interviewed for the full-time manager’s job after the season, but the Giants instead opted for an experienced skipper in Bob Melvin.

This led to an inevitable shakeup of the Giants’ staff, with a number of coaches (i.e. Bryan Price, Matt Williams, Pat Burrell, Ryan Christenson) with long histories with Melvin or with the San Francisco organization all coming aboard.  In Christenson’s case, he took over the bench coach job, leaving Correa without a role.

The 35-year-old Correa joins former San Francisco staffmate Craig Albernaz on the Guardians’ staff, as Albernaz is moving from bullpen coach in San Francisco to a field coordinator role.  New Guards manager Stephen Vogt also has some past Giants links, as he was reportedly a candidate for the Giants’ managerial role before the Padres officially let Melvin enter the picture.  Vogt also played for the Giants during the 2019 season, just slightly predating both Correa and Albernaz’s time on staff.

Both the bench coach and third base coach roles are open in Cleveland, after the departures of DeMarlo Hale and Mike Sarbaugh.  Those seem like obvious fits for Correa, though it is also possible he might take a less-traditional title of infield coordinator or defensive coordinator, as it seems probable that his infield coaching experience will again be part of his duties.

Guardians, Padres Swap Scott Barlow, Enyel De Los Santos

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The Guardians announced they’ve acquired reliever Scott Barlow from the Padres. Fellow reliever Enyel De Los Santos is back to San Diego in a one-for-one swap. Cleveland also announced they’ve signed outfielder Ramón Laureano to a one-year contract to avoid arbitration. Zack Meisel of the Athletic reports (on X) that Laureano will make $5.15MM next season.

Barlow has spent the majority of his career in the AL Central. The right-hander reached the big leagues with the Royals in 2018. He logged five and a half seasons in Kansas City, where he was one of the game’s more quietly effective bullpen arms. Barlow turned in a sub-3.00 ERA over 74 1/3 innings in consecutive seasons from 2021-22. That excellent run prevention took a step back this year, as he carried a 5.35 mark through 38 2/3 frames at the time of the trade deadline.

The Royals swapped Barlow to San Diego last summer. While he’d been working as Kansas City’s closer, he stepped into a setup role in deference to Josh Hader at Petco Park. Barlow made 25 appearances for the Friars down the stretch, pitching to a 3.07 ERA. While Barlow was effective, he became a trade candidate yet again as rumors of payroll constraints in San Diego arose.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Barlow for a $7.1MM salary in what’ll be his final year of arbitration control. While that’s decent value for an effective reliever, the Padres are reportedly aiming to cut spending (potentially by as much as $50MM). Moving a non-closing reliever is one of the less impactful ways for San Diego to clear spending room, although it’s another hit to a bullpen that also stands to lose Hader to free agency.

It’s rare for the low-payroll Guardians to find themselves on this side of a trade of that nature. Cleveland tends to deal away players as they’re nearing free agency. The Guards jumped on the opportunity to add a high-quality reliever to join Trevor Stephan and Sam Hentges as a leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase.

To offset the loss of Barlow, San Diego brings back a more affordable short-term bullpen piece. De Los Santos had a nice 2023 campaign, pitching 70 times and working to a 3.29 ERA through 65 2/3 innings. The righty, 28 next month, had an average 23.7% strikeout rate and walked 9.5% of opposing hitters.

It was his second straight year with an ERA in the low 3.00s. Since signing a minor league deal over the 2021-22 offseason, he has turned in a 3.18 ERA over 119 frames. De Los Santos worked in mostly low-leverage situations but had pitched his way into the middle innings during his second season in Terry Francona’s bullpen.

De los Santos, who spent some time in the Padres system early in his minor league career, has between three and four years of MLB service. He will be eligible for arbitration for the next three years. Swartz forecasts him for an affordable $1.2MM this winter, meaning the deal should save San Diego roughly $6MM in the short term.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rockies Acquire Cal Quantrill

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The Rockies announced that right-hander Cal Quantrill has been acquired in a trade with the Guardians.  Cleveland will receive minor league catcher Kody Huff in return, and Colorado has designated right-hander Tommy Doyle to create room on the 40-man roster.

Some kind of move seemed imminent when the Guardians designated Quantrill for assignment earlier this week, whether or not that move was a trade or the Guards just releasing Quantrill as an early non-tender.  The righty is projected to earn $6.6MM in the second of three arbitration-eligible years, which was perhaps a bit steep for a Cleveland team that traditionally has modest payrolls, and considering the fact that Quantrill struggled in 2023.

However, it was an acceptable price for a Rox team in dire need of starting pitching.  Denver’s thin air has always put an extra burden on Rockies pitchers, but things went particularly sideways in 2023 when the club was hit with a long list of injuries to pitchers at the both the Major League and minor league levels.  Colorado’s rotation wasn’t thought to be a strong group even going into the season, yet with injuries depleting the ranks, the Rockies’ pitching staff (both starters and relievers) finished at or near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories.

Health was a problem for Quantrill as well last year, as some nagging shoulder inflammation sent him to the injured list twice and limited him to 99 2/3 innings.  This was a big drop from the 168 frames he averaged over the 2021-22 seasons, as well as a slide from his quality numbers in those previous two years.  Quantrill posted a 3.16 ERA for Cleveland in 2021-22, but that number ballooned to 5.24 in 2023.

A glance at the secondary numbers is necessary, as Quantrill’s 4.50 SIERA in 2021-22 indicates that he was in some sense fortunate to deliver such a solid bottom-line ERA.  Quantrill has always been a below-average strikeout pitcher who nevertheless had strong chase rates, yet his chase rate dropped off significantly to 26.5% last season, and his 13.1% strikeout rate in 2023 was almost the worst in baseball.  The righty also allowed much more hard contact in 2023 than in past years.

Coors Field isn’t exactly the best ballpark for a pitcher in need of a rebound year, so Quantrill will face a difficult challenge on his new club.  Simply staying healthy and eating some innings would be a decent outcome for both Quantrill and the Rockies, and Colorado’s ever-present need for pitching probably means that barring injury or a drastic downturn in performance, Quantrill stand a good chance of being tendered a contract for his final arbitration year.

Doyle made his MLB debut in the form of 2 1/3 innings over three appearances with Colorado in 2020, and then didn’t make it back to the Show until he posted a 6.85 ERA over 23 2/3 innings for the Rox this past season.  The 27-year-old Doyle dealt with some injury problems in between those two Major League stints, and he had a 3.41 ERA in 37 frames with Triple-A Colorado Springs this season, with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 48.9% grounder rate helping paper over some less-flattering secondary metrics.

It wasn’t enough for the Rockies to keep him on the 40-man roster, though Doyle could stick around in the organization if he clears waivers and opts to accept an outright assignment to Triple-A.  Doyle has been previously outrighted in his career, so he has the ability to reject future outright assignments in favor of free agency.

Cleveland’s ability to draft and develop young pitching has been the organization’s backbone for years, and this strength was on display again in 2023 when Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen all looked good in their rookie seasons.  This isn’t to say that the Guardians are completely set in the rotation — the rookies could hit some setbacks now that the league has a book on them, and Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber both had injury problems last year.  Bieber is a free agent next winter and has been widely seen as a trade candidate this offseason, but even with Bieber’s departure potentially looming, it’s a sign of how far Quantrill’s stock fell that the Guardians were willing to move on.

Rather than non-tender Quantrill for nothing, the Guards did get some return back in Huff, a Stanford product who was a seventh-round pick for the Rockies in the 2022 draft.  He spent the 2023 season at the Rockies’ A-ball affiliate in Fresno, hitting .262/.357/.374 over 340 plate appearances.  Baseball America’s scouting report on Huff describes him as a “baseball rat” type, and “his well-rounded game and advanced instincts give him a chance to be a backup catcher.”  Cleveland has long prioritized defense from the catching position, and that stance doesn’t appear to be changing especially now that an ex-catcher in Stephen Vogt is the Guardians’ new manager.

A’s Claim Michael Kelly, Sign Daz Cameron To Minors Deal

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The A’s announced this evening that the club has claimed right-hander Michael Kelly off waivers from the Guardians. In addition, the club announced that they have signed outfielder Daz Cameron to a minor league contract that includes an invitation to Spring Training.

Kelly, 31, was designated for assignment by the Guardians earlier this week. A first-round pick by the Padres during the 2011 draft, Kelly has spent most of his career as a minor league journeyman. He spent the first several seasons of his career with San Diego before departing for the Orioles organization in 2018. He spent the 2019 season pitching in independent ball before returning to affiliated ball in 2021 with the Astros. After spending 2022 with the Phillies and 2023 in Cleveland, Kelly is now on to his fourth organization in as many seasons.

Kelly has performed fairly well in limited chances at the big league level, with a career 3.48 ERA and 3.52 FIP across 20 2/3 innings of work  out of the bullpen with the Phillies and Guardians. He owns a solid 23% strikeout rate during that time, but pairs it with a worrisome 11.5% walk rate. Kelly’s issues with the free pass extend to his work at Triple-A, where he’s walked 11.7% of batters faced across six seasons. He owns a 4.69 ERA in that time, though that figure was a far more palatable 3.58 in 37 2/3 innings of work at the level this year.

As for Cameron, the 26-year-old outfielder was a first-round pick by the Astros in the 2015 draft. After heading to Detroit as part of the return in the Justin Verlander trade, Cameron played in parts of three seasons for the Tigers from 2020-22, accumulating a slash line of just .201/.266/.330 across 244 big league plate appearances during that time. Cameron played for the Orioles at the Triple-A level this season and did fairly well for himself, slashing .268/.346/.452 in 446 trips to the plate for what was the best full-season performance at the level of his career. The A’s currently project to utilize Esteury Ruiz, Seth Brown, and JJ Bleday in the outfield entering next season. That outfield mix leaves plenty of opportunities for Cameron to break camp with the team should his performance this spring warrant it.

Diamond Sports Group Could Drop Guardians, Rangers Broadcasts

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The ongoing Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy could soon affect another two franchises. Evan Drellich and Mike Vorkunov of the Athletic report that the broadcasting corporation is considering dropping its in-market TV deals with the Guardians and Rangers before the 2024 season.

Diamond, which operates the Bally Sports networks, already severed contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks during the 2023 campaign. MLB stepped in to handle in-market broadcasting for those clubs. Diamond had sought to pay reduced rights fees to the Twins, Reds, Guardians and Rangers during the year as well. The bankruptcy court eventually awarded those teams their full rights fees.

If Diamond officially drops two more agreements, the Cleveland and Texas organizations will have to find alternate means of broadcasting within their local markets. MLB could step in to ensure those games aren’t blacked out, as it did for the Padres and D-Backs. Perhaps the franchises could line up an agreement with a new regional sports network during the offseason. In any event, it’s a suboptimal situation — albeit one which team executives were surely anticipating at this point.

“Our intention is to broadcast almost all of (our) Major League Baseball teams next year,” one of Diamond’s attorneys said in today’s bankruptcy proceedings (relayed by Drellich and Vorkunov). “There are a few, a very few, for which we do not have agreements in place. And that, frankly, at this point, are too expensive for us to broadcast without concessions. I am told that those discussions are taking place, there have been reach-outs to both of the teams involved.”

Diamond has local broadcasting deals with 11 teams. That figure was 14 at the beginning of the ’23 season. In addition to the lapsed deals with San Diego and Arizona, Bally’s contract with the Twins expired at the conclusion of the year. Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote yesterday that a new short-term deal with Diamond to carry Minnesota’s 2024 broadcasts hasn’t been ruled out.

The Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Royals and Tigers also have existing contracts with Diamond. Jonathan Randles and Steven Church of Yahoo! Finance write that attorneys for both Diamond and Sinclair — the media conglomerate which had acquired Diamond in 2019 — indicated in today’s court proceedings that Diamond might be liquidated entirely at the end of the 2024 MLB season. (Sinclair and Diamond now operate independently after Diamond accused Sinclair of siphoning funds from the subsidiary.)

The uncertain TV rights picture could impact the spending habits for those franchises. The Twins are scaling back payroll this offseason. Only the franchise’s ownership and front office know precisely how much that’s a result of the TV picture, but Minnesota president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has called it a contributing factor.

While the Twins have run almost exactly average player payrolls, Cleveland and Texas have been on opposite ends. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Guardians ranked 25th in Opening Day payroll this year. The Rangers opened the season ninth and have the fifth-highest projected outlay for 2024 on the heels of their World Series win.

Guardians Designate Cal Quantrill For Assignment

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The Guardians have designated right-handers Cal Quantrill and Michael Kelly for assignment, per a team announcement. Their spots on the 40-man roster go to fellow righties Cade Smith and Daniel Espino, whose contracts have been selected in order to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

Quantrill is the most notable name designated for assignment so far today — a veteran of four-plus big league seasons who was locked into a rotation spot in Cleveland heading into the 2023 season. He struggled badly in an injury-shortened year, however, and the Guards will designate him for assignment rather than pay him a raise in arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a $6.6MM salary for the former first-round pick.

Prior to the 2023 season, a DFA of Quantrill would have seemed far-fetched. While it might’ve been easy to envision a scenario where Cleveland ultimately traded the righty — as they frequently do with pitchers late in their arbitration years — a straight jettison from the roster for a righty who pitched 336 innings of 3.16 ERA ball from 2021-22 speaks to the magnitude of his struggles in 2023.

Granted, Quantrill enjoyed that success despite a well below-average 18% strikeout rate, but he at least partially offset that lack of whiffs and punchouts with strong command (6.8% walk rate) and a knack for inducing weak contact (87.6 mph average exit velocity, 35% hard-hit rate).

The 2023 campaign couldn’t have gone much more poorly for Quantrill. Shoulder inflammation wiped out more than two months of season, and when he was healthy enough to take the mound he limped to a 5.24 ERA with fielding-independent metrics to match. His fastball, which averaged a career-high 95.3 mph back in 2020, was down to 94.1 mph in 2023, and he posted career-worst strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates of 13.1%, 7.9% and 40.8%. Of the 141 pitchers who tossed at least 90 innings in 2023, Quantrill’s strikeout rate ranked 140th, leading only 40-year-old Adam Wainwright, who retired at season’s end.

The Guardians are known for their ability to regularly churn out quality arms, and their second-to-none pitching development was on full display in ’23, with top prospects Tanner Bibee (the AL Rookie of the Year runner-up), Gavin Williams and Logan Allen all not only making their MLB debuts but almost immediately stepping up as MLB-caliber rotation options. That trio, combined with Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, gives Cleveland a strong starting five even without Quantrill. Of course, since Bieber has just one year of club control remaining, he’s a trade candidate himself this winter, but the Guards could potentially receive a viable rotation replacement in moving him, sign one in free agency or simply turn to their farm system for yet another rotation candidate.

Cleveland will have a week to trade Quantrill or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. Presumably, the Guards explored trade possibilities before making today’s move to DFA him. That doesn’t mean a deal can’t yet be reached, but there’s now a clock on any dealings. Quantrill would certainly be a candidate to be claimed, and he’d have the right to elect free agency if he clears. One way or another, this DFA all but closes the door on his time with the organization. Any team that claims Quantrill could control him for two more years via arbitration, but they’d have to be willing to pay him something in the vicinity of that projected $6.6MM salary next year.

The rest of Cleveland’s moves are less surprising. Kelly is a 31-year-old journeyman who pitched a career-high 16 2/3 innings in the Cleveland bullpen this year. He held his own with a 3.78 ERA and average 22.5% strikeout rate, but he also walked more than 12% of his opponents and had similar command issues in Triple-A. Like Quantrill, he’ll be traded or potentially passed through waivers within a week’s time. He can elect free agency if he clears.

Espino entered the season ranked as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects despite a lengthy list of injuries already on his resume. He wound up missing the entire year due to a shoulder procedure performed in early May. The talent is still there for Espino to be a coveted prospect, but with a mounting number of injuries under his belt, he’s fallen well down (or entirely off) most prospect rankings.

Smith, 24, was a 16th-round pick by the Twins back in 2017 but didn’t sign, instead opting for college. He subsequently went undrafted because of the shortened nature of the 2020 draft and signed as a free agent with the Guardians thereafter. He worked exclusively out of the bullpen in 2023, pitching 62 2/3 innings of 4.02 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A. It was a pedestrian earned run average, but Smith also fanned a sky-high 35.2% of his opponents. Given his ability to miss bats and his proximity to the Majors, he’d quite likely have been selected in the Rule 5 Draft had Cleveland not protected him. He’ll now have a chance to earn his first big league look this coming season.

Tanner Bibee Earns Full Service Year With Rookie Of The Year Runner-Up

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Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee finished runner-up in this year’s American League Rookie of the Year balloting. While the honor went to Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson, the runner-up placement is an important development for Bibee as he will earn a full year of service time for the 2023 campaign.

In order to disincentivize service time manipulation, the MLBPA and MLB agreed to include a prospect promotion incentive in the collective bargaining agreement that was agreed to prior to the 2022 campaign. As a result of the incentive, players with less than sixty days of service time entering the season receive a full year of service time if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, so long as they were featured on at least two preseason Top-100 prospect lists from ESPN, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline. Bibee met those qualifications, and as such will earn a full year of service time for the 2023 season despite making his big league debut near the end of April. That leaves Bibee likely set to hit free agency after the 2028 season as things stand.

It’s certainly exciting news for Bibee, 24, who looked like a potential front-of-the-rotation arm for the Guardians across 25 starts this season. The right-hander posted a 2.98 ERA that was 40% better than league average by measure of ERA+, alongside a 3.52 FIP that was 17% better than league average by measure of FIP- in 142 innings of work. Impressive as Bibee was during his first season in the majors, there were some potential red flags in his performance, perhaps most notably a whopping 80% strand rate that was ninth-best in the majors among pitchers with at least 120 innings of work this year. His 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate were both right around league average, but his exceptionally low 36.8% groundball rate could leave him vulnerable to major changes in his home-run-to-fly-ball fortunes, particularly if he struggles to replicate his exceptional 6.1% barrel rate.

Still, Bibee figures to be a mid-rotation or better arm for the Guardians going forward even if he’s unable to keep up the incredible production of his rookie season. With Bibee now a year closer to free agency than he otherwise would have been, he figures to have a considerable amount of additional leverage should the Guardians look to engage with him in extension talks. After all, Bibee now figures to hit free agency a few months before his 30th birthday, and free agents who hit the market younger than 30 tend to be in much better position to seek long term commitments from clubs in free agency. Of course, free agency is still a long way away for Bibee and there’s been no indication of the Guardians looking to lock the youngster, who won’t be arbitration eligible until the 2025-26 offseason.

Bibee’s runner-up finish for the award will not earn the Guardians an additional draft pick in the 2024 draft, unlike Henderson’s first-place finish for the Orioles. Baltimore will earn the extra draft pick because Henderson both met the aforementioned criteria to be considered a top prospect preseason and would have qualified for a full year of service time after being on the MLB roster for at least 172 days in 2023. Bibee, meanwhile, was on the roster for just 158 days and would have fallen short of a full year of service time if not for his top-two finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Gunnar Henderson Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has won Rookie of the Year for the American League, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians placed second while Triston Casas of the Red Sox placed third.

Henderson got to make his major league debut last year as a September call-up, just a couple of months after his 21st birthday. Despite his young age, he held himself incredibly well. His 25.8% strikeout rate was a bit above average, but he also drew walks at a 12.1% clip. His .259/.348/.440 batting line last year resulted in a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% above league average in that time. That call-up gave him a chance to get a taste of the majors while maintaining rookie status, since he didn’t get to 130 at-bat or 45 days on the roster.

The O’s came into 2023 looking to firmly stamp out their rebuild and make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Henderson’s first full season helped them do just that, as he hit 28 home runs and stole 10 bases. His walk rate dipped to 9%, though that was still above league average. His .259/.348/.440 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 123. He split his time between shortstop and third base, getting strong grades at both positions. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.6 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 6.2. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 101 games and took the top spot in the American League East.

The award is surely gratifying for Henderson and the O’s in and of itself, but there are other implications of this news. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Henderson, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #1 prospect on all three of those lists.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Henderson did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the O’s, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Bibee and Casas also had strong seasons, but not enough to catch Henderson. The former made 25 starts for the Guards with a 2.98 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He wasn’t promoted until late April but will earn a full service year by getting second place in this voting. But since he didn’t get that service year the traditional way, the Guards won’t get a bonus draft pick. Casas hit 24 home runs and walked in 13.9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .263/.367/.490 batting line and 129 wRC+. He was in the majors all year, so the voting won’t impact him from a service time perspective, but he falls just shy of getting the Red Sox a bonus pick.

Henderson was a unanimous selection, per the full vote tally from the BBWAA, getting all 30 first-place votes. Bibee got 20 of the second-place votes while Casas got six. Other players receiving votes were Josh Jung of the Rangers, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, Edouard Julien of the Twins and Anthony Volpe of the Yankees.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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