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Astros Now “Serious Suitor” For Nolan Arenado

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While the Astros have been intent on trying to re-sign Alex Bregman this offseason, the club landed a potential third base backup option in Isaac Paredes, and is now looking at an even bigger option at the hot corner.  The Athletic’s Chandler Rome reports that Houston has “emerged as a serious suitor for” Nolan Arenado’s services, though a trade isn’t “believed to be imminent.”

Since the Cardinals are looking to create more playing time for younger players and reduce payroll, the club has been open about its attempts to trade Arenado this offseason.  The third baseman has a full no-trade clause but is open to waiving it in the right situation, as agent Joel Wolfe stressed that Arenado is only willing to leave St. Louis for “a team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career.  He wants a team that has the throttle down….that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

The Astros would seemingly fit that description as longtime playoff regulars who are trying to keep their contention window, but it is unclear if Arenado would have interest in going to Houston.  The Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox are the six teams Arenado would reportedly be willing to play for, but it isn’t known if any clubs beyond this group would also meet his approval for a waiver of his no-trade privileges.

Beyond the no-trade clause, the Astros and Cardinals also have to work out the terms of the actual deal, and finances could present an obstacle.  Rome writes that “the Astros will ask the Cardinals to help pay down” the $74MM owed to Arenado over the final three years of his contract.  (Only $64MM is technically the Cards’ responsibility, as the Rockies are covering $10MM of that figure as per the term of the 2021 trade that brought Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis.)  Whether or not the Cardinals are willing to cover any of Arenado’s salary is an open question, and if so, it’ll be a matter of whether they can match figures with the Astros or any other suitor, or if St. Louis is willing to take on an unwanted contract as salary offset.

Some additional baggage might stand in a way of an Astros/Cardinals trade in particular.  Former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa was found guilty in federal court over charges of illegally accessing the Astros’ proprietary baseball operations database in 2013 and 2014, and MLB punished the Cardinals by forcing them to give $2MM and their top picks in the 2017 draft to the Astros as punishment.  Though Houston’s front office has since been overhauled and Chaim Bloom is set to replace John Mozeliak next year as the Cards’ next president of baseball operations, the two teams haven’t completed a trade with each other since 2012, hinting at some lingering bad blood.

Astros GM Dana Brown said yesterday that the team’s decision to trade Kyle Tucker (and get Paredes back in the trade package from the Cubs) didn’t indicate that anything changed in Houston’s pursuit of a reunion with Bregman.  KPRC’s Ari Alexander also hears from a source that the Astros remain among “the strong four” top contenders for Bregman along with the Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees, with the Tigers and Blue Jays also linked to Bregman’s market.

Technically, a scenario exists where Houston could re-sign Bregman, install Arenado at first base, and then have Paredes at DH whenever Yordan Alvarez is in left field.  But, more realistically, trading for Arenado would surely close the door on the chances of a reunion between Bregman and the Astros.  Reports have indicated that Houston has offered Bregman a six-year, $156MM contract, but if he and his camp have indicated that a larger outlay is necessary, that might explain why the Astros now have given more attention to Arenado since the end of the Winter Meetings.  With at least the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox in on both third basemen, it make sense that the Astros would also explore both options out of due diligence.

Cubs Acquire Kyle Tucker

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The Cubs and Astros announced that they have made a trade that will send outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago, with infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith heading to Houston.

It’s a move that would have been completely shocking as recently as a few weeks ago. Tucker has been a key part of the Astros dynasty and one of the best players in baseball in recent seasons. But over the past few weeks, reports emerged that the Astros were willing to listen to offers on Tucker as they looked to balance their desire to compete with some financial concerns. It appears that talks ramped up quickly and Houston found an offer they considered too good to pass up.

Tucker, 28 in January, was one of many high profile draft picks that went on to be part of the championship nucleus in Houston. The club aggressively tanked last decade, using high draft picks to select players like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and others. After failing to sign Brady Aiken, their top pick in 2014, they received a compensation pick in the 2015 draft. That gave them two of the top five picks in 2015, using the second overall pick to draft Alex Bregman and the fifth overall selection on Tucker.

Both picks were big successes, as Bregman and Tucker each established themselves as All-Star capable big leaguers. This deal now officially ends Tucker’s tenure in Houston and might poetically point to the end of Bregman’s as well. Houston decision makers have long pointed to re-signing Bregman, who is currently a free agent, as a top offseason priority. However, the two sides have reportedly remained far apart in negotiations and the pivot to Paredes might signal that Bregman won’t be coming back to Houston after all.

Tucker, 28 in January, hit 89 home runs over the 2021 to 2023 seasons. He hit exactly 30 in the first two of those campaigns and then 29 in the third. He also stole 69 bases in that time, had above average walk and strikeout rates and strong defense. His combined line in that time was .278/.353/.517, which led to a 138 wRC+, indicating he was 38% better than league average. In 2024, he missed about three months due to a shin fracture but his limited performance was even stronger. He hit 23 home runs in just 78 games and his .289/.408/.585 line led to a 180 wRC+.

Putting all of those traits together, Tucker was worth about five wins above replacement in each of the 2021-2023 seasons, per FanGraphs. In 2024, he racked up 4.2 fWAR even though he missed roughly half the year. His 19.1 fWAR over the 2021-2024 stretch puts him 13th among MLB position players, though he played fewer games than everyone ahead of him, thanks to that injury absence.

Unlike some other clubs, the Astros have shown a willingness to let their star players go get paid elsewhere. They did that with Correa, Springer and Gerrit Cole, who went on to sign with the Twins, Blue Jays and Yankees, respectively. That has aligned with a general reluctance to give out massive deals or pay the competitive balance tax. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Jose Altuve’s 2018 extension worth $157.5MM over six years is the biggest deal in franchise history, both in terms of years and dollars. The Astros went over the CBT line in 2020 but didn’t pay any taxes as the system was put on hold in the shortened season. 2024 was the first time they went over the line and actually had to pay the tax.

Coming into this winter, general manager Dana Brown suggested the club needed needed to “get a little bit creative” with the budget. Owner Jim Crane later pushed back on that stance a bit, but it appears the financial constraints are real. Reporting has indicated that the Astros made an offer to Bregman of $156MM but that he is looking for something closer to $200MM.

Tucker’s earning power next winter is likely to be even higher than Bregman’s is now. Bregman is going into his age-31 season now whereas Tucker will be going into his age-29 campaign next winter.

It’s possible the Astros decided they weren’t likely to get a long-term deal done with either player and explored trade talks with Tucker, with this offer ticking a lot of boxes for them. It clears Tucker’s salary, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for $15.8MM, off the 2025 books. Redirecting those savings to Bregman is still possible but they’ve also found themselves a potential replacement in Paredes.

Over the past three years, Paredes has hit 70 home runs and slashed .234/.338/.437 for a 123 wRC+. He’s also bounced around the infield, though has been at third base more than anywhere else. His defense at the hot corner has been close to average but it’s still made him roughly a 3-4 fWAR player recently. He is projected to make $6.9MM via arbitration next year and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond that.

Going to Houston might be an especially good fit for him, given that most of his home run power comes via pulling the ball towards the field foul pole. As pointed out by Sarah Langs of MLB.com, his home run total of 19 in 2024 would have been 26 if he played all his games in Houston and could take advantage of the Crawford Boxes.

It’s still possible that Houston could re-sign Bregman and move Paredes over to first base, since the club is also looking for help there, but time will tell how viable that is. Houston could find cheaper solutions at first base and leave Paredes at third for the next few seasons.

The acquisition of Smith also provides the Astros with a potential third baseman for the future. He was just drafted by the Cubs with the 14th overall pick a few months ago and slashed .313/.396/.609 in his professional debut, getting into 32 games across three different levels, finishing at Double-A. If the Astros stick with Paredes at third, Smith could push him for the job in the coming years, with Paredes eventually getting moved across the diamond.

The Astros also add a bit of pitching depth in the deal via Wesneski. The 27-year-old has decent underlying rates thus far in his career but problems with the long ball have pushed lots of runs across the plate. In 190 innings thus far in his career, he has a 23% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. But 35 home runs, a rate of 16.7% per fly ball, have led to a 3.93 ERA. If the Astros can help him keep the ball in the park, he can be a part of their pitching staff for years to come. He has less than two years of service time and can therefore be retained for another five seasons.

The club has plenty of question marks with its pitching right now. Each of McCullers, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and J.P. France missed all or part of 2024 due to notable arm surgeries, so each of those guys is a question mark heading into 2025. Framber Valdez is also a trade candidate in the same vein as Tucker, since he’s set to make an eight-figure salary and is one year away from free agency. Hunter Brown had an uneven season this year. Ronel Blanco was huge for Houston but is fairly limited in terms of starting experience. Spencer Arrighetti was decent in his rookie year but it’s hard to bank on him at this point.

In the bullpen, Ryan Pressly is another trade candidate. He’s set to make $14MM next year, the final season of his deal. Wesneski has worked both as a starter and as a reliever in his career, so he can help Houston in either department.

For the Cubs, it’s a lot to give up, and that’s especially true when looking back to their acquisition of Paredes. They just sent Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson to the Rays a few months ago, getting Paredes ahead of the summer deadline. In a sense, they have given up those three players plus Smith and Wesneski in order to get just one season of Tucker.

But there are good reasons why they have paid such a price. The club has been hovering around .500 in recent years, having a squad full of good players but lacking in truly elite ones. They also possess a very strong pipeline of prospects, several of whom are pushing for major league playing time. They have shown a reluctance to pay top dollar for free agents, so a big trade has seemed like the best way for them to upgrade the roster.

Tucker certainly qualifies. As mentioned, he has been one of the best position players in the majors recently and immediately becomes the best player for the Cubbies. Perhaps the Cubs will look to work out an extension with Tucker but that would require a very notable contract, the kind they haven’t given out recently. Even if Tucker is only at Wrigley for one year, the Cubs will at least be able to recoup draft pick compensation by issuing him the qualifying offer after 2025.

In addition to that, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is in the final year of his contract. With the Cardinals taking their foot of the gas pedal next year and the Reds and Pirates still struggling to come out of rebuilds, there’s a window for the Cubs to take a step forward, push the Brewers for the division and get Hoyer some extra job security.

It’s also possible that they won’t miss any of the pieces they gave up too much, even though they make a lot of sense for Houston. As mentioned, the Cubs have an excellent farm system. On Baseball America’s Top 100, they currently have six players on the list, which doesn’t even include Smith. Though it surely hurts to give up their most recent first round pick, the farm is still in good shape overall.

That farm might also be able to provide an immediate Paredes replacement. One of the club’s top prospects is Matt Shaw, who has played a bit of middle infield but a bit more at third.  He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .284/.379/.488 for a 146 wRC+. If the Cubs feel Shaw is ready to make the jump to the majors, that may have made Paredes expendable. Wesneski is also a talented pitcher but he’s been squeezed from the rotation plans in Chicago and largely kept in a swing role.

It’s a huge move for both clubs and will surely lead to more, especially for the Cubs. They already had a crowded outfield mix even before adding Tucker into it. They also have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, not to mention prospects Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. They have reportedly been trying to work out a deal involving Bellinger or, to a lesser extent, Suzuki. Happ and Suzuki both have no-trade clauses, making them difficult to move. Bellinger has an opt-out after 2025, which also makes him a tricky trade candidate.

One way or another, a move from that group feels inevitable. The Yankees have been connected to both Tucker and Bellinger, so perhaps they will now focus more on the latter now that they didn’t get Tucker.

For the Astros, what’s still unknown is if the door is totally closed to Bregman. It certainly feels like that may be the case, though it’s not impossible to see a path back to Houston. RosterResource estimates their competitive balance tax number at $225MM, which is $16MM shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Signing Bregman would certainly push them over, though not by as much now that Tucker’s gone. They could also theoretically lower their number by trading Valdez or Pressly. Then again, they’ve been talking about signing a new deal with Bregman for two years without it happening, so perhaps this is the door finally closing.

It’s also unknown if Houston is content with its Tucker-less outfield. Yordan Alvarez is a strong hitter but often relegated to DH duties due to ongoing knee issues. Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick and Taylor Trammell are other options on the roster, along with utility types like Mauricio Dubón and Shay Whitcomb. The group obviously looks weaker without Tucker in it, so perhaps the Astros will look to bolster the group in the coming weeks and months.

Time will tell how the move plays out in the full offseason for both clubs. But for today, the Cubs have added a huge talent to the roster without giving up anything truly heartbreaking. The Astros have lost that huge talent but could have made up a decent amount of his value in the short term while clearly helping themselves in the long term.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported this morning that the Cubs and Astros were “circling” on a deal involving Tucker, Paredes and Smith. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first mentioned Wesneski’s inclusion. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the deal was done.

Astros’ GM Discusses Valdez, Bregman

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Astros general manager Dana Brown met with reporters shortly after the team finalized its biggest trade in years. In the wake of sending Kyle Tucker to the Cubs for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith, Brown spoke about what’s next.

Most notably, he downplayed the chance of moving ace Framber Valdez. He indicated the front office continues to be open to offers on anyone but suggested he didn’t find it likely they’ll move the star lefty. “We’re not aggressively trying to move him, but we’ll listen,” Brown told reporters (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). “If you ask me if (I) think we’re going to trade Valdez, I don’t think we’re trading Valdez. I think he’s (a) pillar, and it’s really tough to keep a rotation intact, and we really feel like he’s going to be an important one in our rotation.”

Valdez and Tucker were each thrust into trade rumors on Monday, when Brown replied to a question on their availability by saying the team would “listen on all the players.” Today’s comments don’t refute that, though the Astros seem less motivated to pursue trade talks on Valdez now that they’ve moved Tucker. One of the primary motivations for trading either player was offloading their expensive projected salaries for their final season of arbitration. The Tucker trade should save the Astros around $9MM — the difference between the projections for Tucker’s and Paredes’ salaries — and drops their projected luxury tax number to roughly $225MM (courtesy of RosterResource). That puts them around $16MM shy of the base threshold.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary. The Astros shouldn’t have as much of a desire to offload that money. Perhaps they will reconsider if they receive an offer that takes the general shape of the Tucker trade and allows them to acquire MLB help and at least one prospect of note. Brown acknowledged today that the club hasn’t had any extension talks with Valdez since last year, so they’re probably not optimistic about the chance of keeping him beyond next season. They’re still aiming to win the AL West in 2025, though, so they’re not going to move Valdez strictly for minor league talent.

Brown was also naturally asked how the Tucker trade impacts their pursuit of Alex Bregman. While there could be a few million dollars more to offer Bregman in the short term, landing Paredes gives the Astros a fallback at third base which they’d previously lacked. Brown indicated the Tucker trade doesn’t have much impact on the Bregman bidding. “Pretty much, Alex Bregman’s status [remains] the way it is,” he stated (link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). “Nothing has changed since the last time I’ve talked to you guys. … It’s still pretty much the same where we were Tuesday.”

There’s still room for Bregman on the roster. Paredes has played nearly 400 career innings at first base. He’s a serviceable defender at third base, but his profile is built around his bat. He wouldn’t lose a ton of value if he moves to the other side of the diamond. Houston needs first base help. They’d probably run a Jon Singleton and Zach Dezenzo platoon if the season opened today.

Brown acknowledged that the team was looking for a bat. They’re not going to find anyone of Tucker’s caliber, of course, but there’s still a decent amount of talent available in both the first base and corner outfield markets. Chandler Rome of the Athletic writes that Houston is looking for a left-handed hitting outfielder, in particular, as a direct replacement for the role Tucker filled.

The GM told Rome and other reporters that the Astros expect for Chas McCormick to open the season in right field while Jake Meyers plays center. He left the door open for a left field acquisition. Switch-hitter Jurickson Profar and lefty-swinging Max Kepler and Alex Verdugo are speculative possibilities who remain unsigned.

Cubs Close To Deal For Kyle Tucker

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1:20pm: Right-hander Hayden Wesneski is also involved in the talks, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

1:03pm: The Cubs and Astros are “close” to an agreement on a Tucker trade, tweets Heyman. Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 in Houston reports that the two sides have discussed a return that would send Paredes, Smith and a third player to Houston.

12:56pm: Talks between the two sides have “continued to gain momentum,” Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Smith and Paredes are “among the names being discussed,” suggesting others could indeed be in play.

9:10am: The Cubs and Astros have been in talks on a trade that would send star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. It’s not yet clear whether other players are involved on either end. There’s no indication a deal is nearing the finish line.

Tucker, 27, only recently emerged as a viable trade candidate. The former No. 5 overall pick broke out as an everyday player in 2020 and has since elevated himself to one of the game’s best young players all around. Over the past four seasons, he’s turned in a .280/.362/.527 slash with 112 homers, 80 steals, an 11.3% walk rate and just a 15.1% strikeout rate. A fracture in his shin cost him much of the 2024 season, but he had his most productive season ever when healthy: .289/.408/.585, 23 homers, 16.5% walk rate in 78 games.

Tucker is a year from reaching free agency as a 28-year-old and is poised to command the type of mega-contract that Astros owner Jim Crane has been unwilling to offer; Houston’s longest contract under Crane has been Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal. Jose Altuve’s $151MM extension is the largest in terms of overall guarantee. Tucker could command double that guarantee in free agency over a significantly longer term than Alvarez’s deal.

For the Cubs, adding Tucker would only further increase the likelihood of trading Cody Bellinger and/or Seiya Suzuki. Tucker would supplant both in right field. Chicago already has young Michael Busch at first base and Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field. Left fielder Ian Happ has a full no-trade clause. There’d be no obvious spot to play either Bellinger or Suzuki other than designated hitter. That’d be a waste of Bellinger’s solid defensive skills, and Suzuki has a preference to play in the field rather than slot in as a primary DH. He also has a full no-trade clause, further complicating matters.

The trio of players’ contracts are worth keeping in mind, too. Tucker is entering his final season of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $15.8MM this coming season. Bellinger is guaranteed a $27.5MM salary next season and has a $25MM player option with a $5MM buyout for the 2026 season. In essence, he’s guaranteed at least $32.5MM for one year and perhaps $52.5MM over the next two seasons, pending that opt-out decision. Suzuki has two years to go on his five-year, $85MM contract and will earn $18MM in each of the next two seasons.

For the Astros, trading Tucker would be a tough pill to swallow. Crane has voiced a willingness to pay the luxury tax if the right situation presents itself but seems to rather clearly prefer to avoid doing so for what would be a second straight season. The ’Stros have been angling to bring longtime third baseman Alex Bregman back into the fold, but he’s been seeking a deal north of $200MM while Houston’s most recent reported offer was for six years and $156MM. That the Astros are looking at not only an immediate big league option at the hot corner (Paredes) but also a recent first-round pick whose primary position is third base (Smith) at least implies some pessimism of completing a reunion with Bregman.

That said, the Astros also have a need at first base. Paredes could capably fill that role, as he’s played all four infield positions throughout his big league career. He’s primarily been a third baseman, but he does have nearly 400 innings at first base under his belt. It’s at least possible that the Astros could use the payroll space created by a potential Tucker trade to re-sign Bregman, play Paredes at first base and then simply be content to add a player with Smith’s overall upside to the upper tiers of their system. Smith isn’t likely to be a big league option until 2026 anyhow, and his bat is his calling card; a move to an outfield corner isn’t out of the question at some point.

Paredes, 26 in February, went from the Rays to the Cubs at the 2024 trade deadline and struggled in his new environs. The versatile slugger hit .250/.342/.488 and belted 31 homers for Tampa Bay in 2023 and looked well on his way to approximating that production in ’24 when he hit .245/.357/.435 with the Rays prior to the trade. With Chicago, however, Paredes slumped to a tepid .223/.305/.307 slash in 212 plate appearances.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Paredes is a .234/.338/.437 hitter (123 wRC+) who’s swatted 70 homers while playing four different positions across the past three seasons. He’s walked in a strong 11.2% of his plate appearances during that span against a 17.3% strikeout rate that’s about five percentage points lower than average. He’s projected to earn $6.9MM in 2025 and is under club control through the 2027 season. He’d be a long-term add for the Astros who can help out at a variety of positions and who would offer a solid bat against righties and plus production against southpaws (.274/.366/.456). On top of that, he ranked third among all qualified MLB hitters in pull percentage this season and posted the second-lowest ground-ball rate in that same set. An extreme-pull righty bat with that kind of penchant for elevating the ball seems almost tailor-made for Houston’s short left field porch.

Smith, meanwhile, was just selected with the No. 14 pick last summer and signed for a bonus a bit north of $5MM. The Florida State product absolutely torched minor league pitching with a .313/.396/.609 slash in 134 plate appearances across two Class-A levels and Double-A. It was one of the best debut performances of any draftee and only served to further elevate his already considerable prospect stock. Baseball America ranks Smith sixth in a deep Cubs farm system that in 2024 boasted six of the game’s top 100 prospects. Smith will likely be included on several top-100 rankings ahead of the 2025 season.

Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros for a $215MM bottom-line payroll with nearly $234MM of luxury tax obligations. That leaves them about $7MM shy of this season’s $241MM tax threshold. Moving Tucker would open up quite a bit of breathing room, as would a trade of reliever Ryan Pressly, whose name has also frequented the rumor circuit this offseason. He’s owed $14MM but can veto any trade scenario as a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, including the past five with the same team). Astros general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that his club might need to be “creative” to address roster needs amid payroll uncertainty, and talk of potential deals involving Tucker, Pressly and lefty Framber Valdez all fit under that umbrella.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

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11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

Yankees, Cubs Interested In Kyle Tucker

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Astros general manager Dana Brown left the door open yesterday to trading either outfielder Kyle Tucker or left-hander Framber Valdez this winter. Today, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link) reports that the Yankees and Cubs are two clubs interested in Tucker.

The news isn’t especially surprising. Tucker is one of the best players in the league and it would actually be more of a shock if any club weren’t interested in him. He is entering his final year of club control, which should eliminate teams fully in rebuild mode, but he should have broad interest apart from that. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Tucker for a $15.8MM salary next year, a notable sum but still affordable for any team and a bargain for a player of Tucker’s talent level.

From 2021 to 2023, Tucker’s production was fairly consistent and also trending upward. He hit 30 home runs in the first two of those seasons and then 29 in the third. His walk and strikeout rates each made slight improvements in that stretch. He drew free passes at a 9.3% clip in 2021, then 9.7% and 11.9% in the next two seasons, while his strikeout rate went from 15.9% to 15.6% and then 13.9%. His stolen base total went from 14 to 25 to 30.

In 2024, he missed significant time after fouling a ball off his leg and fracturing his shin. That injury limited his counting stats but he continued to improve on a rate basis. Though his strikeout rate ticked back up to 15.9%, he drew walks in 16.5% of his plate appearances. Despite only getting into 78 games, he launched another 23 home runs. His wRC+ was between 130 and 146 over his previous three seasons but jumped to 180 in 2024.

He’s also been graded as a strong defender and, as mentioned, can steal a few bases. FanGraphs graded him as worth either 4.9 or 5.0 wins above replacement in three seasons from 2021 to 2023, and Tucker was worth 4.2 fWAR in 2024 even though he played less than half a season. That’s 19.1 fWAR over the past four years, placing him in 13th among all position players for that span. Thanks to his shin injury, all 12 guys ahead of him on that list played in more games.

There are some rough parallels here with the Juan Soto situation from a year ago. The Padres were willing to make Soto’s final year of club control available on the trade market in order to walk a tightrope. They wanted to continue competing but had a tight budget and had several players that were difficult to trade due to contractual reasons. Moving Soto freed up a huge amount of payroll space and also brought back immediate help in other areas, as the Friars were able to get a package of players that included Michael King and Drew Thorpe, later flipping Thorpe to get Dylan Cease.

The Astros are in a somewhat similar spot now. Brown previously said that the club might have to get creative with money this offseason, even though they still want to win next year. Players like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have big contracts but are franchise cornerstones. Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly each have the right to veto any trades. Lance McCullers Jr. can’t be easily moved due to his health status.

They don’t really have to consider a trade but it seems they will pick up the phone and see if any club blows them away with a Soto-like package. Tucker’s track record isn’t quite as good as Soto’s but Soto was projected for a $33MM salary going into 2024, more than double what Tucker is slated to earn next year.

It’s theoretically possible that they can get a package of young talent they like while simultaneously freeing up some payroll space to re-sign Alex Bregman, since Brown and owner Jim Crane have both marked that as the club’s top priority. That would leave the Houston outfield consisting of Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubón, though it’s possible they get some cheaper outfield help back in the trade.

The Yankees, of course, wanted to re-sign Soto as a free agent but he is now going to become a Met. That leaves the Yanks with a big hole in their outfield and they have to pivot to other possibilities. The free agent market features guys like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández while the Yankees have been connected to trade candidate Cody Bellinger. Tucker would be a more attractive option than any of those three in a vacuum but a deal coming together would naturally depend on what it would take for the Astros to let him go.

The Yankees still have Aaron Judge as their outfield anchor and might move him back to right field for the post-Soto era, with Jasson Domínguez and Trent Grisham options for center. Tucker is strong in right field, so perhaps the Yanks would consider moving him to left. Due to the short porch in right, there’s more grass to cover in left field, making defense over there more of a concern.

There shouldn’t be any financial issue, as the Yankees just reportedly make Soto an offer of $760MM over 16 years, an average annual value of $47.5MM. They will now be looking to spread that kind of money around to other players and Tucker is only projected to get about a third of that.

For the Cubs, they already have a crowded outfield picture but clearly have interest in shaking it up a bit. Bellinger has been in many rumors this winter and Seiya Suzuki’s name has come up as well. Trading either is complicated, in Bellinger’s case due to his upcoming out-out while Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. Those two project to be in an outfield group that also includes Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, as well as youngsters like Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. Happ also has a no-trade clause while the Cubs probably want to hang onto the younger guys. Each of Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki are slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger perhaps departing a year earlier than that.

As mentioned, just about every contender should be calling the Astros to get a sense of the asking price. There are no guarantees that he can be obtained but even the possibility that he’s available makes him one of the most interesting names to watch in the coming weeks.

Astros Not Ruling Out Potential Trades of Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez

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6:35pm: In a full column at The Athletic, Rome writes that the Astros have unsurprisingly received calls on Tucker. He indicates that none of those discussions have become serious but reports that Brown is indeed willing to consider moving one of the two players if the right opportunity presents itself.

6:20pm: Astros general manager Dana Brown met with reporters this evening at the Winter Meetings. In addition to reiterating their longstanding desire to re-sign Alex Bregman, Brown left the door at least slightly open to trading one of his star players.

In response to a question about the team’s willingness to field interest in Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, Brown replied he “would listen on all the players” (X link with video via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). It doesn’t seem they’re actively shopping either, however.

“We’ll listen on anybody. We’re not trying to aggressively move anybody out the door… If it doesn’t make sense, we wouldn’t do it,” Brown expanded (relayed on X by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). “So it really would have to make sense. Because right now we’re a good team and we’re not motivated to move any of these guys.”

An open-mindedness to conversation isn’t a declaration that either player is on the block. It still seems likelier than not that both will begin next season in Houston. That said, there’s at least a little bit of chatter about the possibility of the Astros pulling off a blockbuster. Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the idea last week, pointing out that it’d open a fair amount of immediate payroll space while helping to replenish a poor farm system. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that there’s “some buzz” around the Meetings regarding the potential for a Tucker trade, in particular.

Both players would net a strong return. They’re each down to their final year of arbitration but are among the best in baseball at their respective positions. Tucker, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for a $15.8MM salary, hit 23 home runs in only 78 games this year. He slashed .289/.408/.585 across 339 plate appearances. A nagging right leg injury cost him a few months, but Tucker’s rate production was the best of his career. He’s one of the game’s five to 10 best hitters and trending towards a free agent deal that could push near $400MM.

There’s little to suggest the Astros are going to make a push to sign Tucker to that kind of contract. Even if they expect him to walk in 12 months, a trade would be a tough sell. Houston is trying to win another AL West title. They wouldn’t come close to replacing Tucker’s production if they move him. They’re already thin in the outfield, where Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are the other projected starters. Yordan Alvarez could see time in left field, but manager Joe Espada said today the Astros were hoping to scale back his outfield work to give him more reps at designated hitter (X link via Rome).

Valdez probably wouldn’t bring quite the same return as Tucker. He’d arguably be easier to replace, though the Astros would be placing a lot of faith in injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. to do so. The southpaw is coming off a 2.91 ERA showing through 176 2/3 innings. Valdez has topped 175 frames in three straight years. He hasn’t allowed an ERA above 3.45 in any of those seasons. While his strikeout rates are more good than great, Valdez posts elite ground-ball numbers.

Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary in his final arbitration year. That’s a notable sum but still well below what he’d make for one season if he were a free agent. (Frankie Montas just signed for $17MM annually over two seasons, for example.) Valdez is going into his age-31 season and could be limited to a five-year free agent contract, but he’s on track for a deal that lands well north of $100MM. The Astros have a better chance of re-signing him than they do of keeping Tucker, but neither player seems especially likely to remain in Houston after next season.

Latest On Alex Bregman

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While the majority of attention figures to be focused on the outfield market in the aftermath of Juan Soto’s decision to sign with the Mets on a record-shattering deal last night, one other beneficiary of the failed suitors’ expected aggressiveness on the rest of the free agent market could be third baseman Alex Bregman. Rob Bradford of WEEI reported last night that the Red Sox may “immediately be prioritizing” a pursuit of Bregman in the aftermath of Soto’s signing as they look to use those funds to sign other top free agents, while USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports this morning that the Yankees are “expected” to make a run at free agency’s top infielder as well.

The Red Sox were previously reported as a potential suitor for Bregman earlier this winter, but their level of interest has not been clear to this point. Now, it appears they may have more significant interest in adding the 30-year-old veteran to their roster after failing to land Soto. Bregman certainly makes plenty of sense for the Red Sox, as he’d help to balance a heavily left-handed lineup as a right-handed hitter with a career .277/.367/.494 slash line against southpaws. What’s more, the club’s crowded outfield mix makes the infield perhaps the most obvious place for Boston to add to the lineup, though they’ve seemingly prioritized adding pitching help (aside from their pursuit of Soto) to this point in the offseason.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle to Bregman landing in Boston is a somewhat questionable positional fit. Bregman has spent virtually his entire big league career at the hot corner, which is currently occupied by Rafael Devers at Fenway Park. That said, it’s easy to see how the Red Sox could fit Bregman into their plans if they’re sufficiently motivated to do so. Bregman has expressed a willingness to slide over to second base if his new team so desires, and the Red Sox have also reportedly considered shifting Devers off third base into either a first base or DH role. There’s potential flaws in either of those plans given the presence of top prospect Kristian Campbell as a potentially big league ready long-term solution at the keystone and Devers’ reported desire to remain at third base for the foreseeable future, but those are issues that could surely be worked around if Boston were sufficiently motivated.

The Yankees, meanwhile, have been a speculative fit for Bregman’s services but have not previously been reported to have interest in the veteran. The club is sure to be aggressive in upgrading its roster now that Soto has landed elsewhere, and an infield that sports little certainty outside of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Anthony Volpe is an obvious place to start. The club had reported interested in shortstop Willy Adames as a candidate to play either second or third base before he signed with the Giants over the weekend, and Bregman is certainly a logical fit to fill that same role.

Chisholm played third base for the Yankees down the stretch and into the postseason after being acquired from the Marlins last summer but has far more experience at the keystone, so adding a proven third baseman like Bregman could upgrade the club on both sides of the ball by allowing Chisholm to move back to his natural position while adding a reliable hitter who’s never posted a wRC+ lower than 114 in a season to their lineup. One theoretical roadblock to the Yankees signing Bregman could be discontent due to the third baseman being part of the 2017 Astros squad that was implicated in the infamous sign-stealing scandal, though the same could be said for shortstop Carlos Correa and GM Brian Cashman’s front office didn’t let that stop them from pursuing him when he was a free agent three years ago.

Of course, the longtime archrivals of the AL East are hardly the only suitors for Bregman’s services. The Phillies, Blue Jays, and Tigers all reportedly have at least some level of interest in the veteran infield this winter, and the incumbent Astros are perhaps his most obvious suitor of all. Houston has already made an offer to Bregman’s camp this winter, which was reportedly in the range of six years and $156MM. He’s reportedly looking for a deal in the $200MM range, however, and that gap could create room for one of his other suitors to swoop in and pull him away from the Astros. That’s led the club to explore contingency plans in case Bregman signs elsewhere such as infielder Jorge Polanco and first baseman Christian Walker, GM Dana Brown made clear in an appearance on MLBNetwork Radio yesterday that retaining their star third baseman remains the club’s top priority.

“We’re working on it… we’re having a lot of conversations with Scott [Boras], and, you know, we’re optimistic,” Brown said of their pursuit of Bregman. He went on to make clear that, even if they don’t re-sign Bregman in free agency this winter, he expects the club to seek outside help at third base. Brown noted that he believes the club’s internal infield solutions to be anywhere from six months to a year away from being ready for big league action, indicating that at least a stopgap solution at the hot corner such as Polanco will be necessary for Houston should they fail to bring Bregman back into the fold.

Astros Reportedly “Extensively” Shopping Ryan Pressly

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Astros right-hander Ryan Pressly is being “extensively shopped” on the trade market this winter, according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. That’s not the first indication this winter that Pressly could be available, as a report emerged last month indicating that Houston had at least internally discussed dealing the veteran righty, but it’s nonetheless notable that the club has seeming begun shopping him to rival clubs on the trade market.

At the outset of the offseason, GM Dana Brown was candid about the fact that his club’s budget for this winter was looking tight. While the club has emphasized its desire to remain in contention next year, Brown acknowledged the club might have to get “creative” in addressing holes on the roster. That was a potentially ominous sign for a club that saw longtime third baseman Alex Bregman elect free agency last month, leaving them with holes at both infield corners along with room to improve on the outfield grass and in the starting rotation. RosterResource notes that the club is already on the hook for a projected $215MM payroll in 2025, just $20MM below their Opening Day payroll in 2024 and just $29MM below their end-of-season payroll this past year.

With such a tight budget, it’s easy to imagine 2024 being the end of Bregman’s tenure in Houston. That’s not something the Astros have been willing to concede to this point, however, as they’ve reportedly made an offer to Bregman since he reached free agency. The specifics of that offer aren’t entirely clear, but subsequent reporting has suggested there may be a gap between the sides as the Astros hope to retain Bregman on a deal in the range of six years and $156MM while Bregman hopes to land a deal worth at least $200MM. The uncertainty surrounding Bregman has led the Astros to consider potential fallback options, including first baseman Christian Walker and infielder Jorge Polanco, though it’s not hard to imagine Walker himself commanding an AAV that could land outside of the Astros’ comfort zone.

Whether it be in service of a more robust pursuit of Bregman or to increase their flexibility in the event he signs elsewhere, it makes plenty of sense for the Astros to consider dealing Pressly this winter. The 36-year-old hurler is due $14MM in the final year of his contract following a solid but unspectacular 2024 season where he pitched to a 3.49 ERA and 3.10 FIP in a late-inning role after being bumped from the closer role by the club’s deal for Josh Hader last winter. Pressly’s results remained solid, but his peripheral numbers took a step back as his 23.8% strikeout rate was his worst since 2016 while his 7.4% walk rate was his worst in a 162-game season since 2018.

While Pressly is obviously still a quality reliever, he’d be unlikely to receive a $14MM AAV on the open market ahead of his age-36 season this winter. That lack of clear trade value could make a trade difficult for the Astros to pull off, and any trade talks figure to be further complicated by the fact that Pressly has full no-trade protection as a player with ten years of service time and five consecutive years with his current club. That means Pressly would have to approve a trade in order to be moved, and there’s no guarantee that the Dallas native who has previously signed multiple contract extensions with the Astros would be interested in leaving Houston.

Those obstacles are significant, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pressly remain in an Astros uniform next year because of them. They certainly don’t necessarily mean that a deal is impossible, however. It’s at least feasible that Pressly could have interest in being traded to a club that would be willing to use him in the ninth-inning after he racked up 102 saves in 118 chances (86.4% conversion rate) across his four years in the role with Houston. The Cubs, Red Sox, and Phillies are all among teams that could be in the market for help in the ninth inning this winter, and Nightengale suggests that Philadelphia could have particular interest in Pressly’s services.

Nightengale goes on to speculate that a deal involving Pressly and Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm could make sense for both clubs if the Astros fail to land Bregman, though it’s worth noting that Bohm figures to have more value on the trade market than Pressly so a straight one-for-one swap seems unlikely. Meanwhile, Chicago is known to have interest in dealing Cody Bellinger and Houston has reportedly checked in on Bellinger this winter. That makes a swap involving Bellinger and Pressly at least a theoretical fit between the two sides, though it’s unclear if discussions between the Cubs and Astros about Bellinger even involved other names much less Pressly in particular.

How Could The Astros Create Payroll Space?

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For months, the Astros have expressed hope they’ll re-sign Alex Bregman. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote this afternoon that they’ve made a six-year, $156MM offer — supporting recent reporting from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale about the club’s comfort zone. Nightengale and McTaggart each suggest that Bregman’s camp was hoping to land closer to $200MM at least.

With a significant gap between the sides, it’s worth examining the organization’s payroll. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number at nearly $234MM. That’s $7MM shy of next season’s $241MM base threshold. Re-signing Bregman would push them well into CBT territory. Even if they balk at his asking price, they’d need to be willing to pay the tax to make any notable upgrades unless they ship out salary.

The luxury tax isn’t a firm limit. Owner Jim Crane allowed the front office to push into tax territory this year. He has suggested he’s willing to do so again if the organization feels they’re targeting the correct players. Offering Bregman a $26MM average annual value reinforces that, even if it wasn’t a proposal the two-time All-Star was likely to accept.

The Astros seemed to be up against their limit late last winter. Once they lost Kendall Graveman to shoulder surgery, ownership signed off on a surprising $95MM contract for Josh Hader. Maybe they’ll eventually do the same to retain Bregman. That’d be easier to envision if they managed to offload salary in a trade, especially since they’d face escalating penalties for paying the luxury tax in consecutive years. How could they go about cutting spending?

The Astros have $142MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. They’d have a tough time moving most of those deals. They’re not trading Jose Altuve ($30MM) or Yordan Alvarez ($15MM). There’s little incentive to sell low on Cristian Javier ($10MM) midway through Tommy John rehab. Trading Hader ($19MM) after one season of a five-year deal isn’t happening. Lance McCullers Jr.’s injury history means they wouldn’t find a taker for his $17MM salary without paying the contract down almost the entire way.

Houston can’t trade any portion of the $19.5MM they owe to José Abreu after releasing him. They could technically trade Rafael Montero, who remains in the organization after being outrighted from the 40-man roster. No one’s letting them off the hook for any part of his $11.5MM salary, though. That’s $122MM in commitments to players who have almost no chance of being moved.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, the only realistic trade options are Victor Caratini and Ryan Pressly. Caratini is making an affordable $6MM as a quality complement to Yainer Diaz behind the plate. The Astros could find a taker, but they’d probably need to subsequently commit $3-4MM to sign a backup catcher. Moving Caratini wouldn’t make much of a difference in the Bregman bidding.

As we noted when we named Pressly the offseason’s #14 trade candidate, offloading the reliever’s $14MM salary is the most straightforward option. It’s one the front office has considered. A Pressly trade is a strong possibility, but it’s not inevitable. It’d deal a hit to their bullpen, for one. Pressly also has full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player. If he doesn’t want to move, he’s staying.

That leaves their arbitration group. Houston has one of the biggest arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects them for a combined salary nearing $54MM. They’re mostly key players. Houston’s arb class breaks down as follows (the salaries are projections, not finalized numbers).

Most of those players are making between $2-5MM. Trading someone like Dubón or Meyers is plausible, but as with a potential Caratini move, it’s not especially consequential from a payroll perspective. If Houston wanted to clear significant money from their arbitration class, the clearest way would be to move one of Tucker or Valdez.

This week, Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the idea of the Astros entertaining a Valdez or Tucker trade. To be clear, that was framed as speculation, not defined reporting that the Astros are actually considering it. Tucker and Valdez are each one year from free agency. Rome points out that they’re trending towards contracts that Crane has traditionally been reluctant to approve — especially Tucker. He argues that the Astros could use one of Tucker or Valdez to add talent to a thin farm system while remaining a contender for another AL West crown. That’s especially true if the Astros use the extra payroll room to finish a deal with Bregman.

Of the two, Valdez would probably be slightly easier to replace. After a terrible April, Hunter Brown pitched like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Ronel Blanco fired 167 1/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball in a breakout season. Garcia could be ready for Opening Day after losing the ’24 season to Tommy John surgery. Before his injury, he was a quality mid-rotation starter. The same is true of McCullers, although his injury history over the past three seasons makes him difficult to rely upon. Spencer Arrighetti showed the ability to miss bats and quietly posted an excellent finish in 2024; over his final 13 starts, he pitched 76 innings with a 3.08 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. J.P. France could be back later in the year after losing this season to a shoulder procedure. He’s a capable back-end arm if healthy.

Trading Valdez would subtract the Astros’ most reliable source of innings, to be sure. Yet a starting five of Brown, Garcia, Blanco, Arrighetti and some combination of McCullers and France has decent upside. The Astros would probably need to add rotation help at the deadline for a second straight year, but it wouldn’t be a disastrous group to open the season. They’d need to be more aggressive in stockpiling non-roster depth than they have been in prior offseasons. They could also target at least one near-MLB pitching prospect if they were to seriously consider a Valdez trade.

Moving Tucker is a much harder sell. Even if the Astros don’t think there’s much chance they’ll re-sign him, they’d take a huge downgrade to their 2025 lineup. Tucker could be a top 5-10 hitter in MLB next season. His foot injury was a source of frustration this year, but there’s no way to replace the kind of production (.289/.408/.585 with 23 homers in 339 plate appearances) they’d be losing. The outfield is already a relative weak point after McCormick underperformed this year.

None of this is to say a Tucker or Valdez trade is likely. Indeed, there’s no indication the Astros have given either scenario serious thought. If they find it more difficult than expected to line up a Pressly trade, there’s at least an argument for them thinking bigger to create some spending capacity.

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