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NL Notes: Playoff Shares, D’Backs, Gibson, Price, Mets

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Championship rings carry much greater import than financial gain during a postseason run, but teams that reach the playoffs get extra revenue that is divvied up into shares.  The Associated Press reported the figures on the 2023 playoff pool earlier this week, and how the $107.8MM in playoff revenue was divided amongst the 12 playoff teams, with more money naturally going to the teams who advanced furthest.  According to numbers released by the league, the Rangers got $38.8MM (split into 64 full shares, 12.56 partial shares and $48,000 in cash awards) and the Diamondbacks got 71 full shares and 11.49 partial shares out of their bonus of $25.9MM.

How the shares are awarded within a clubhouse is determined by veteran players on each team.  Several players and managers automatically qualify for full shares, but the players must then vote on what other players (such as someone who was with the club for only part of the season) or uniformed personnel (coaches, trainers, support staff, etc.) will also get full or partial shares.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal shared some insight into the process, and how the D’Backs made their decisions in who and who didn’t get a $313.6K full share, but the team did its best to spread the wealth.  “I’m not rolling my eyes over a $300K check.  I’m just saying the impact that it has on me is not going to be as significant as on any of our younger players who have limited service time or our clubhouse attendants or our kitchen attendants,” Evan Longoria said.  “That impact is going to be much, much more for them….I want you guys to understand the perspective that I’m coming from when I say it’s life-changing for these people.”

More from around the National League…

  • The Cardinals’ signing of Kyle Gibson this week ended a very long pursuit, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted that the team’s interest in the right-hander dated all the way back to Gibson’s 2009 draft year.  “Multiple times since, the Cardinals have attempted to sign or trade for Gibson” Goold wrote, before finally landing Gibson on a one-year, $12MM deal.  The local connection was obvious, as Gibson played his college ball at the University of Missouri and he already lives in the greater St. Louis area during the offseason.  The righty’s results have been up-and-down over his 11 MLB seasons, but Gibson’s ability to eat innings should be very valuable for a Cardinals team badly in need of rotation depth before Gibson and Lance Lynn were brought on board.
  • Newly-hired Giants pitching coach Bryan Price spoke with The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly this week about his decision to join the team, and end his three-year retirement from coaching.  Price had spent the last two years working as a a special advisor with the Padres and working with longtime friend and colleague Bob Melvin, so when Melvin left the Padres to become the Giants’ new skipper, Price couldn’t resist a reunion in his hometown of San Francisco.  Giants fans might also be interested in Price’s more old-school approach to pitching, coming off a 2023 season that saw the team use mostly bulk pitchers, openers, and piggyback starters to cover innings in patchwork fashion.  “I’m a simple person when it comes to my overview on pitching: The starters pitch the bulk of the innings and you utilize your bullpen as needed….So we can be creative but we’ve got to be responsibly creative in how we use the data and what we decide is usable information versus what takes us into a place where we’re constantly chasing greatness and it’s only taking us into mediocrity or failure,” Price said.
  • Before the Mets hired John Gibbons as their new bench coach, the New York Post’s Mike Puma reported that Phil Nevin was a candidate for the job.  Let go as the Angels’ manager after the season, Nevin has a long relationship with Mets skipper Carlos Mendoza from their days on the Yankees’ coaching staff.  There was some speculation that former Mets manager Willie Randolph might’ve been a candidate for the bench coach job given Mendoza’s praise of his former mentor, but Newsday’s Anthony Rieber suggests Randolph could still return to the Mets in another capacity.

Giants, Yusniel Diaz Agree To Minor League Deal

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Outfielder Yusniel Díaz has signed a minor league contract with the Giants, according to his transaction log at MLB.com. It isn’t clear if he’ll get an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Díaz, 27, is a former top prospect from his early time in the Dodgers organization. The Cuban-born outfielder hit very well up through Double-A, leading to his inclusion in a 2018 deadline blockbuster. Los Angeles sent him to the Orioles as the headliner in the Manny Machado deal. Díaz entered the following season as Baltimore’s #1 prospect, in the estimation of Baseball America, which ranked him among the sport’s top 40 minor league talents overall.

The righty-hitting outfielder never built on his low minors success to become the player that many prospect evaluators envisioned. Díaz hit at a below-average level in Triple-A over parts of two seasons there. Baltimore called him to the majors at the very end of the 2022 season, but his only MLB experience consists of one game (in which he struck out in his only at-bat).

Díaz returned to the Dodger organization on a minor league deal last winter. Los Angeles assigned him back to Double-A Tulsa. Díaz had strong numbers there, hitting .278/.374/.484 with 16 home runs through 406 plate appearances. That came against generally younger competition but was enough to earn him another minor league deal this offseason. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was in the Dodgers’ front office for a couple seasons while Díaz was beginning his pro career.

Yankees, Giants Expected To Pursue Jung Hoo Lee

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South Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee is one of the more intriguing players who’ll be available in this year’s free agent class. The Kiwoom Heroes will make him available to MLB teams via the posting system at some point in the next few weeks.

In an appearance on the MLB Network this afternoon, Jon Morosi suggested the Yankees and Giants are likely to pursue Lee once his free agency opens (X link). It’s not surprising that either team would have interest. Previous reports have indicated San Francisco and New York had done scouting work on Lee during his run in the Korea Baseball Organization. He fits the profile that both teams are known to be targeting this winter.

Lee, 25, is a left-handed hitting center fielder. A hit-over-power offensive player, Lee posted an OPS north of .900 in each season between 2020-22. He won the KBO MVP award with a .349/.421/.575 showing in ’22 but had a disappointing platform year. Lee’s power production plummeted; he hit only six home runs while slugging .455 over 86 games and 387 trips to the plate. His season ended in July when a left ankle injury required surgery. That came with an estimated three month rehab process, so it’s not expected to affect his availability for Spring Training.

While that’s clearly not the season Lee envisioned preceding his jump to the majors, he’ll still be a target for various teams. He’s atypically young for a free agent. Evaluators praise his pure contact skills and strike zone awareness, although there could be some division among teams about whether he projects as an MLB center fielder. Lee’s fringe power would be more alarming if a club feels he’s a better defensive fit in the corner outfield.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters at the GM Meetings they’d like to add two outfielders — ideally ones who hit from the left side. Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has suggested that adding athleticism to their outfield is an offseason priority. Not coincidentally, those clubs are generally speculated as strong fits for Cody Bellinger. Lee is a riskier bet without a body of work against big league pitching but isn’t going to approach Bellinger’s contract.

Of course, there’ll be more teams involved once the posting process gets underway. The Padres have previously been tied to Lee, while teams like the Mariners, Nationals and Royals make sense on paper. Seattle needs corner outfield help and is looking for high-contact hitters. Washington and Kansas City have short-term uncertainty in the outfield and could view Lee as a candidate for a free agent strike as they look to pull out of rebuilds. Given his youth, he’d align better with their competitive timelines than would most free agents.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/17/23

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Tonight marks the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players who are eligible for arbitration. This evening should also see a handful of arb-eligible players agree to terms with their clubs to avoid a hearing.

These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the night as deals are reported.

Latest Moves

  • The Orioles agreed to deals with outfielders Sam Hilliard and Ryan McKenna, reliever Keegan Akin and shortstop Jorge Mateo, as announced by the team. Mateo will make $2.7MM, as first reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). Jon Heyman of the New York Post has terms (on X) for Akin and Hilliard: $825K for the former, $800K for the latter.
  • Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski has a deal for $7.9MM, Heyman reports. That’s a little above his $7.3MM projection. Yastrzemski has one additional arbitration year remaining.
  • Reliever Yency Almonte and the Dodgers have agreed to a $1.9MM salary, per Heyman. That matches his projection.
  • Lefty reliever Ryan Borucki agreed to a contract with the Pirates, the team announced. Feinsand reports it as a $1.6MM deal. He was projected at $1.3MM.
  • The Rockies have a deal with lefty reliever Jalen Beeks, Heyman reports. He’ll make $1.675MM. Recently claimed off waivers from Tampa Bay, Beeks was projected at $1.8MM.
  • The Cubs announced a deal with third baseman Patrick Wisdom. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the power-hitting infielder will make $2.725MM. That’s narrowly above a $2.6MM projection.
  • Outfielder DJ Stewart agreed to a deal with the Mets, per a club announcement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports it’ll be for $1.38MM. Stewart had been projected at $1.5MM as an early qualifier via Super Two.
  • The Phillies announced deals with right-hander Dylan Covey, catcher Garrett Stubbs and outfielder Jake Cave. Terms were not disclosed.
  • The White Sox announced agreement with reliever Matt Foster on a deal for $750K, narrowly above the league minimum. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in April.

Earlier Tonight

  • The Royals announced agreement with lefty reliever Josh Taylor. He’ll make $1.1MM, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Acquired from the Red Sox last winter, Taylor allowed an 8.15 ERA over 17 2/3 innings before undergoing season-ending back surgery. He was projected for a $1.3MM salary.
  • The Athletics announced today that they have agreed to one-year deals with infielders Miguel Andujar and Abraham Toro. The club claimed Andujar off waivers from Pittsburgh earlier this month and swung a deal to acquire Toro from the Brewers earlier this week. Andujar hit .250/.300/.476 in 90 trips to the plate in the majors this year while Toro appeared in just nine games at the big league level but slashed .444/.524/.778 in that extremely limited action. Andujar will make $1.7MM (Heyman link); Toro is set for a $1.275MM salary.
  • The Giants have a deal with outfielder Austin Slater for $4MM, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). That’s a little north of his $3.6MM projected salary. Slater has over five years of service time and will be a free agent next offseason. The right-handed hitter is coming off a .270/.348/.400 showing over 89 games. He’s a career .285/.374/.463 batter against left-handed pitching but owns a .227/.314/.333 mark versus righties.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/17/23

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm CT. Here’s a rundown of fairly minor players on National League teams who have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month.

All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency without being placed on waivers. They’ll be eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 teams. It’s not uncommon to see non-tendered players almost immediately return to their previous organization on a minor league deal.

The transactions:

Latest Moves

Earlier

  • The Reds have non-tendered relievers Derek Law and Reiver Sanmartin. Cincinnati also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of Nick Senzel.
  • In addition to Rowdy Tellez and Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers have non-tendered right-hander J.C. Mejía. He failed a PED test in September, the second such result of his career, and was suspended for 162 games.
  • Former Rookie of the Year winner Kyle Lewis was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks. He played in only 16 games after being acquired from the Mariners last offseason.
  • The Cubs non-tendered relievers Ethan Roberts, Brandon Hughes and Codi Heuer. All three are recovering from surgeries.
  • Right-hander Tommy Doyle was non-tendered by the Rockies. Colorado designated him for assignment when acquiring Cal Quantrill this morning.
  • The Cardinals have non-tendered catcher Andrew Knizner, first baseman Juan Yepez and starting pitchers Jake Woodford and Dakota Hudson. St. Louis reportedly tried to deal Hudson this afternoon but evidently did not find a taker.
  • The Mets have non-tendered relievers Jeff Brigham, Sam Coonrod and Trevor Gott. New York also cut loose infielder Luis Guillorme and confirmed the reported non-tender of Dan Vogelbach.
  • Left-hander Josh Fleming was non-tendered by the Phillies, the team announced. Philadelphia just snagged the southpaw off waivers from the Rays a few weeks ago.
  • The Marlins have non-tendered catcher Jacob Stallings and infielder Garrett Hampson, per a club announcement. Stallings spent two seasons as the primary catcher after being acquired from the Pirates at the 2021-22 offseason. Hampson signed a minor league deal with the Fish last season.
  • The Pirates non-tendered Osvaldo Bido and Hunter Stratton, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Neither had yet been eligible for arbitration. Both right-handers made their big league debuts in 2023; Mackey suggests the Bucs will try to bring them back on minor league pacts.
  • The Nationals announced they’ve non-tendered first baseman Dominic Smith and right-hander Cory Abbott. Both players were designated for assignment earlier in the week, making this an inevitability.

Giants Interested In Matt Chapman

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The Giants are interested in free agent Matt Chapman, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though he adds that the Blue Jays “are making a big push to keep” the third baseman.

Chapman, 31 in April, has been a speculative fit for the Giants this offseason for a few reasons. For one thing, the club’s new manager Bob Melvin was the skipper in Oakland while Chapman was there. Beyond that, it’s widely believed that the Giants are planning to add a star player or two this winter after just missing on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa a year ago.

The Giants have also had some question marks around their defense in recent years, which happens to be Chapman’s specialty. After winning 107 games in 2021, the club fell to .500 in 2022, with glovework seeming to play a role in that. The club was collectively graded as being worth -53 Defensive Runs Saved that year, the worst mark in the majors, while their tally of -33 Outs Above Average was third worst. In 2023, they got the OAA into the top 10 but their DRS was still in the bottom third, which perhaps helped contribute to another underwhelming season.

Chapman has been one of the best defensive third basemen in the league during his career, having current counts of 92 DRS and 53 OAA since his 2017 debut. The former number is tops in the majors during that time frame while the latter number is second only to Nolan Arenado.

His bat has been a bit less consistent, particularly in 2023. He finished the season with a batting line of .240/.330/.424 and a wRC+ of 110, though in fairly uneven fashion, having high highs and low lows throughout the year. Some have framed his year as a scorching hot April followed by five tepid months, but Chapman was also quite strong in July, hitting .247/.402/.506 that month for a wRC+ of 154.

On August 13, when Chapman hurt his finger in a weight room incident, he was slashing .255/.346/.449 on the year for a wRC+ of 121, which was fairly in line with his 118 wRC+ from the year before. He tried playing through the finger issue, even going on the injured list for a time, but hit just .163/.250/.302 the rest of the way, diminishing his full season production.

Blaming the injury might be a charitable way to look at things but it stands to reason that the club that signs Chapman is probably going to be one that looks on him favorably and is more willing to overlook the final weeks of the 2023 campaign. His 28.4% strikeout rate for the year gives some pause but optimists can look to his 10.7% walk rate and bloody Statcast metrics. MLBTR predicted Chapman to get a contract of six years and $150MM.

The Giants used J.D. Davis as their primary third baseman in 2023 and he can be retained for one more season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $6.8MM in 2024. He had a fine season, hitting 18 home runs and slashing .248/.325/.413 for a wRC+ of 104. Hitting has always been his forte, with his defense more questionable. DRS continued to frown on him in 2023, giving him a grade of -11 for the year, pushing his career mark to -38. OAA gave him a +5 on the year but his career tally is still just -7.

Davis is a perfectly serviceable player at the hot corner but Chapman would clearly be an upgrade. If the Giants were able to get a deal done with Chapman, Davis would still have a bit of trade value given his modest salary, perhaps allowing the Giants to put him on the market and bolster their roster elsewhere.

Fitting Chapman onto the Jays’ roster is perhaps an easier fit, since he could just slot back into his old spot. The Jays are known to be looking for multiple position players in order to upgrade their lineup this winter, which could include a Chapman reunion. The club already offered him an extension at some point, though Chapman turned it down. But they are also looking into Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and others. Candelario, in particular, would likely be a backup plan for the event that they don’t retain Chapman. Candelario is also a third baseman but doesn’t have the same track record as Chapman, thus leading to a lesser contract projection of four years and $70MM.

As mentioned, the Giants are clearly looking for a significant upgrade this winter, having been connected to big names like Ohtani, Bellinger, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and others. Chapman is on the list as well but they figure to be competing with the Jays and other clubs for many of the same targets.

Both clubs seem to have some powder dry for such pursuits. Roster Resource currently pegs the Giants’ payroll at $147MM next year. They have been in the $200MM range in the past, giving them plenty of room to work with. If their desire for star player additions this winter is as strong as suspected, perhaps they are willing to push that and therefore have even more room. The Jays are at $205MM for next year, per RR, but with a larger arbitration class and a few non-tenders could give them some more breathing space. Their competitive balance tax calculation is currently estimated at $216MM, with next year’s base threshold at $237MM. The Jays were willing to pay the tax last year club president/CEO Mark Shapiro has suggested the payroll situation should be in roughly similar range to 2023.

Latest On Cody Bellinger’s Market

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As the clear #2 position player available in this year’s free agent market, Cody Bellinger is a sensible fit for a handful of teams. The Yankees and Giants were the most common speculated suitors going into the offseason, and that buzz has continued in the first couple weeks.

Bellinger is on the Yankees’ radar as they look for one or two lefty-hitting outfielders. Meanwhile, San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has made clear the team is looking to upgrade its outfield defense, calling center field a priority. Each of Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Jesse Rogers of ESPN wrote yesterday that Bellinger is indeed on San Francisco’s radar.

While the links to both franchises are expected, it’s unclear how aggressively Bellinger’s incumbent team plans to pursue him. Heyman lists the Cubs alongside the Yankees and Giants as early favorites to land the two-time All-Star, while Rogers is more pessimistic, writing that the Cubs are unlikely to engage in a bidding war for the 28-year-old outfielder. Rogers unsurprisingly suggests that Chicago will be involved in the Shohei Ohtani pursuit, noting that some believe the Cubs are likelier to land the two-way star than they are to re-sign Bellinger. Ohtani is obviously the more desirable player, but is also likely to sign for at least double (quite likely more) the amount of guaranteed money.

At the same time, it’d be logical in some sense for the Cubs to allow Bellinger to move on. Top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is viewed as the organization’s center fielder of the future, and he reached the majors late in 2023 after hitting .283/.365/.511 between the top two minor league levels. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are on multi-year commitments in the corner outfield. While Bellinger can play first base, much of his value is tied to his ability to play strong defense at the outfield’s most demanding position.

The left-handed hitter had a strong season at Wrigley Field. After his dismal 2021-22 numbers led to a non-tender with the Dodgers, Bellinger inked a $17.5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases through 556 trips to the plate. Bellinger cut his strikeouts to a personal-low 15.6% clip, although his batted ball metrics figure to give some teams pause. His 31.4% hard contact percentage only ranked in the 10th percentile among qualified hitters.

Bellinger rejected a qualifying offer after declining his end of a mutual option for 2024. Were the Cubs to let him walk, they’d land a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall). A signing team would have to forfeit draft and potentially international bonus space to add him.

Blake Snell Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Free agent left-hander Blake Snell has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Logan Webb of the Giants finished second in the voting while Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks finished third.

Snell, 31 next month, has now earned a Cy Young award for the second time in his career. The first trophy was in the American League, with Snell winning as a member of the Rays in 2018. He is just the seventh pitcher to win the award in both leagues, joining Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Max Scherzer, Gaylord Perry and Roy Halladay.

The left-handed Snell hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career, with both his health and performance wobbling over the years, but his two award-winning campaigns have been excellent. His first trophy came after posting an earned run average of 1.89 with the Rays and this second piece of hardware was earned by posting a 2.25 for the Padres this year. His most recent campaign saw him walk 13.3% of batters faced but he danced around those by striking out 31.5% of his opponents and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.4% clip. He probably had some help from the baseball gods as his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate were both on the lucky side of average, but his punchouts and grounders surely helped him somewhat as well.

Outside of those two campaigns, the results have been far more mixed. He got to 180 innings pitched in his award-winning campaigns but hasn’t reached 130 in any other season. He also hasn’t posted an ERA lower than 3.24 in any of them.

Of course, that doesn’t matter for the Cy Young voting. It’s a single-season award and his year-to-year consistency is not something for the voters to consider. Snell’s voting wasn’t quite unanimous but he got 28 of the 30 first-place votes. But his overall track record will be of concern to the clubs considering signing him as a free agent. Pitchers with multiple Cy Youngs don’t hit free agency every day but it’s also incredibly rare for a pitcher to put so many runners on base without allowing them to score. Regardless of those concerns, MLBTR predicted Snell to land a contract of $200MM over seven years and he’s already garnering plenty of interest.

Webb had a 3.25 ERA in 216 innings for the Giants this year, which got him one of the first-place votes and 17 for second. Gallen had a 3.47 ERA in his 210 innings, which led to one first-place vote and three for second. In the full voting, which can be seen here, votes also went to Spencer Strider, Justin Steele, Zack Wheeler, Kodai Senga and Corbin Burnes.

Padres, Dodgers, Giants Interested In Blake Snell

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The Padres, Dodgers and Giants are all interested in free-agent left-hander Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post in a discussion with Lauren Shehadi of MLB Network (video courtesy of MLB Network on X).

Snell, 31 next month, is fairly unique and will likely have wide variances in how he’s valued by clubs. On the positive side, he just finished 2023 with a 2.25 earned run average over his 32 starts. His 31.5% strikeout rate was second among qualified hurlers, trailing only Spencer Strider. He has a decent shot at winning a Cy Young award tonight, which would be the second of his career after winning it with the Rays in 2018.

But Snell has somehow managed to accomplish all of that despite giving out many free passes. He has walked 10.9% of batters faced in his career and that figure was cranked up to 13.3% in 2023. For context, the major league average in the most recent season was 8.6%. The strikeouts surely helped him prevent many of those runners from scoring, but so did a strong 44.4% ground ball rate. But maintaining his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate would be hard to do over an extended timeline, which is why his 3.44 FIP and 4.06 SIERA suggest his ERA was perhaps flattering him by more than a full run.

He’s also not exactly a workhorse, partly due to some injuries in his career but also due to those walks preventing him from pitching deep into games. He tossed 180 2/3 innings in 2018 and a flat 180 in 2023, with those two seasons being his highest such tallies. Each other season of his career has seen him come in under 130 frames.

Despite some concerning elements in his profile, free agents with multiple Cy Young trophies don’t grow on trees and Snell could be just that in a few hours’ time. Earlier this month, MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents predicted Snell could get a contract of seven years and $200MM. That’s based on the fact that pitchers with the potential for dominance can still get paid, even if it’s not a volume proposition. Carlos Rodón got six years and $162MM with a longer injury track record than Snell and never once getting to the 180-inning mark.

That will likely limit Snell’s market to the clubs with deeper pockets, but it sounds like he is still plenty popular. A return to the Padres would make plenty of sense from a strict baseball perspective. The club obviously likes him since they acquired him three years ago, giving up four prospects in the process. The club also has significant rotation needs, with Snell’s free agency coinciding with that of Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez. That leaves the Friars with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish as the only locks for their 2024 rotation.

The financial fit would be a little harder to see, however. The club is reportedly set to cut payroll significantly for next year, going from the $250MM range to the $200MM range. Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll for next year at $198MM, leaving very little wiggle room. The club is reportedly shopping reliever Scott Barlow and has at least some openness to Juan Soto trades, but the budget is obviously tight. Moving Soto for major league-ready pieces and then signing Snell with the money saved would be one way to compete again in 2024, but there would be plenty of risk in that path.

Like the Padres, the Dodgers have a reduced starting staff. Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn are all now free agents. It’s unclear what the future holds for Urías given an ongoing domestic violence investigation, which could lead to his second such suspension of his career. Kershaw recently underwent shoulder surgery and has an uncertain path forward, perhaps having to miss the first half of 2024. Lynn’s home run troubles were pronounced enough that the Dodgers probably don’t want him back. Among guys still on the roster, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are both recovering from surgery and may miss all of 2024.

That leaves them with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own surgery rehab, and then a batch of guys who were rookies coming into 2023: Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone. There’s also Nick Frasso and Landon Knack, who were just added to the roster yesterday, but adding some proven MLB arms into the mix is a sensible path forward. Heyman lists them as one of many clubs that are looking for multiple starters this winter.

Their payroll situation is far more pleasant than that of the Padres, as Roster Resource has them at just $142MM right now, along with a CBT number of $159MM. Non-tendering Ryan Yarbrough and Yency Almonte would cut both of those figures by over $5MM. It’s unknown how high they want to take the budget in 2024 but they’ve been as high as $280MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to stay under the luxury tax in 2024, the base threshold is $237MM next year, meaning they have around $80MM in wiggle room.

However, they may end up using a big chunk of that on Shohei Ohtani, with many observers considering them the most likely landing spot for the two-way superstar. Signing a player like Snell would also go against their track record. Despite their big payrolls, they haven’t really spent wildly on long-term deals for pitchers. In the past decade, they gave an eight-year deal to Kenta Maeda, but with a minimal guarantee of just $25MM. Since the Zack Greinke signing way back in 2012, they haven’t given a free agent pitcher more than $50MM.

The Giants also have some money to spend and seem motivated to make a big splash. Roster Resource has their 2024 payroll at $147MM and their CBT calculation at $170MM. They’ve topped out at $200MM in past seasons, per Cot’s, but might be willing to push farther this winter. Recent attempts to land star players have fallen short, with the club just missing on guys like Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. It is expected that they will be motivated to get something splashy done this time around and could be quite aggressive in trying to do so.

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi already spoke about the club’s plans for adding to the rotation, which makes sense given the question marks behind Logan Webb, and Heyman says they are also one of the clubs looking for multiple starting this winter. They picked up their option on Alex Cobb for 2024 but he will be coming back from hip surgery. Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling will each be coming off of disappointing seasons in 2023 while guys like Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn are fairly unproven.

Broadly speaking, the demand for starting pitching is high, with Heyman reporting that there are eight teams looking to add multiple pitchers this winter. Not all of them will have the money and/or the appetite for Snell but it seems like general the market conditions could be working in his favor.

Giants Add Three Players To 40-Man Roster

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The Giants announced that they have selected right-handers Trevor McDonald and Kai-Wei Teng as well as lefty Erik Miller to their 40-man roster. Today is the deadline for adding players in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Miller, 26 in February, was a fourth-round pick of the Phillies in 2019 but he came over to the Giants in a January trade for Yunior Marté. Due to injuries and the pandemic, he had only logged 97 innings prior to that trade. In 2023, he was able to throw 62 1/3 frames, split between Double-A and Triple-A, with a 2.45 earned run average in that time. His 17.4% walk rate is eye-popping, but he also punched out 34.1% of batters faced.

Teng, 25 next month, was an international signing out of Taiwan by the Twins but came to the Giants in the 2019 Sam Dyson trade. He has worked his way up the minor league ladder, getting strikeouts and ground balls but also giving out his share of walks. In 2023, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 126 1/3 innings over 27 appearances, 26 starts. He had a 4.42 ERA while striking out 29.8% of opponents and keeping over 40% of balls in play on the ground, but he also walked 12.4% of hitters who stepped to the plate.

McDonald, 23 in February, is the only one of this trio that wasn’t acquired by trade, as the Giants nabbed him in the 11th round of the 2019 draft. In 2023, he was limited by injuries to just 14 appearances, 13 starts. But he posted a tiny 1.33 ERA in his 47 1/3 innings, striking out 28% of hitters while walking 6%. He’s yet to reach the Double-A but the Giants still like him enough to give him a roster spot now to keep him out of the Rule 5.

Baseball America currently lists Miller as the Giants’ #25 prospect, though neither of Teng or McDonald are on the list at the moment. The three of them will give the club some optionable pitching depth going forward and will be trying to crack the majors as soon as they can.

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