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Hyun-Jin Ryu

Rich Hill To Start For Dodgers On Thursday

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Dodgers southpaw Rich Hill laid out his plan for returning from a flexor tendon strain to reporters including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). He’ll start on Thursday and plan to make four total regular-season outings in preparation for the postseason.

If the plan sounds somewhat optimistic, that’s probably somewhat by design. Hill says that he’s going to prepare as if he can fully ramp up down the stretch, without any rehab assignment. If adjustments are needed, they can be considered at the time.

Skipper Dave Roberts confirmed the general plan. He noted that Hill is likely only to throw two innings or thirty pitches in his preliminary outing, as Dodger Talk’s David Vassegh tweets. The ageless southpaw has been sidelined since late June, so he’s obviously in need of a gradual progression in terms of game action.

All things considered, this is excellent news for the powerhouse Dodgers. Hill was throwing brilliantly before he was injured. He could well make for a major addition to the postseason roster, even if he’s ultimately limited in how deep he can work.

This is also a notable development for the coming offseason market. Hill intends to keep playing and hopes to remain with the Dodgers, Andy McCullough of The Athletic reports as part of an excellent profile of the unique left-hander (subscription link). Hill’s health status will surely play a role in the way offseason talks unfold.

This news comes as the team deals with newfound struggles from fellow southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu. The Dodgers will skip his next scheduled start, as DiGiovanna further tweets, in a bid to get the veteran some rest. On the positive side, it doesn’t seem as if there’s any health issue of note to worry about.

NL West Notes: D-backs, Dodgers’ Rotation, Richards

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The Diamondbacks have had mixed results when buying low on relievers under GM Mike Hazen’s regime, but Hazen tells The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required) that prior outcomes won’t close off his mind to any avenues when building his ’pen this winter. “Shutting yourself off to whatever’s happened in the past, or hard-and-fast making rules that you won’t do something again, that just sets you up to miss out on the next opportunity,” said Hazen.

Arizona’s run with the Fernando Rodney Experience yielded solid results in 2017, though more recent matches with Brad Boxberger and in particular, Greg Holland, have been less fruitful. The Diamondbacks’ low-cost acquisition of Yoshihisa Hirano has paid dividends. The organization has plenty of young arms it could trot out next season in hopes of compiling a strong collective unit, but Hazen also cautioned against leaning too heavily on young relievers, which can be tantamount to “flipping coins” in the ’pen. A high-end bullpen signing would be out of character for Hazen & Co., but it seems reasonable to expect some upside plays to pair with the team’s incumbent options.

More out of the NL West…

  • The Dodgers have moved to a six-man rotation recently, and manager Dave Roberts said Thursday that he plans to continue that arrangement for the time being (link via MLB.com’s Jake Rill). The current six-man alignment has given the team more opportunity to work in some rest for the suddenly struggling Hyun-Jin Ryu. The lefty, who accepted a $17.9MM qualifying offer last offseason, was dominant through July but has served up 18 runs in 14 2/3 innings since returning from a brief IL stint due to neck soreness earlier this month. Beyond Ryu, the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Walker Buehler and rookies Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May as rotation options. They’re also likely to get right-hander Ross Stripling back from the injured list this weekend, giving them another candidate to make some starts or long relief appearances should they need to rest Ryu or any of their other arms in advance of the postseason.
  • Garrett Richards returned to the mound after a setback slowed him for three weeks in his rehab from Tommy John surgery. The 31-year-old allowed four runs and walked four hitters in 1 2/3 innings of work for Class-A Advanced Lake Elsinore. Signed by the Padres to a two-year, $15.5MM deal in the offseason, Richards is eyeing a September return to the big league mound and told the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Jeff Sanders last night that he considered yesterday’s outing a positive step — even if the bottom-line results were ugly. Fewer than half of Richards’ 53 pitches were strikes, but the former Angels righty explained that he felt his delivery was consistent, his pitches moved well and that he could’ve kept pitching. Richards hit 95 mph in the first inning of the start, per Sanders, and he’ll join the Friars today to discuss the next steps in his journey back to a Major League mound. Signing Richards was always a move geared toward 2020, but the Padres would assuredly love to get a look at him this year as they begin to map out their plans for next year.

Dodgers Notes: Ryu, May, Jansen, Stripling, Hill, Verdugo

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Hyun-Jin Ryu has been one of baseball’s best pitchers this season, and with a trip to free agency pending, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand speaks to several rival executives about how Ryu will fare on the open market this winter.  It should be noted that Ryu sidestepped a chance at free agency last offseason by accepting a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer from the Dodgers, preferring to remain in L.A. and aim for a better platform year than his injury-shortened 2018 campaign.  That strategy has worked like gangbusters, as Ryu has a 1.64 ERA, 1.1 BB/9 (both league bests), 7.00 K/BB rate, and 50.7% grounder rate over 148 1/3 frames in 2019, with only two minimal injured list stints for relatively minor issues.

With this in mind, Ryu’s long injury history and age (he’ll be 33 on Opening Day 2020) will also certainly be factors in his next contract.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes placed Ryu seventh in his most recent power ranking of the 2019-20 free agent class, though one NL executive tells Feinsand that depending on whether some players exercise opt-out clauses or not, Ryu is “probably No. 2 if his contract ask is reasonable….This could be an interesting class to watch. It might be one of those years where teams rank guys differently based on who they like.”  Gerrit Cole is the undisputed top pitcher available this winter, but other arms like Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, or Dallas Keuchel have also seemingly generated more buzz than Ryu, recent results notwithstanding.  An AL talent evaluator thinks this could be to Ryu’s benefit, telling Feinsand that Ryu “may actually be viewed slightly lower than some in that group perceptually, and therefore, sign earlier. I can see Ryu signing ahead of them and jumping the market and actually getting a better deal. I think the other guys may wait longer, and waiting longer hasn’t always paid off.”

Here’s more on the Dodgers…

  • Dustin May is in line for another start next week, manager Dave Roberts told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other reporters, though May will also make relief appearances to get him more acclimated to working out of the bullpen.  This semi-swingman usage is being deployed since the Dodgers ultimately intend to use May as a reliever in the postseason, though also need him available to make a spot start if necessary down the stretch.  For instance, L.A. is two games into a run of 16 games in 16 days, so May’s start next week will give the regular rotation members a breather.  “When you have a person of Dustin’s head, mindset, it makes it a better bet for us to make and especially when you have the buy-in of the player….We’re going to continue to keep our options open,” Roberts said.  May has started three of his four big league appearances thus far, posting a 4.26 ERA, 7.1 K/9, and 5.00 K/BB rate over 19 total innings.
  • In another case of the Dodgers making early preparations for October, the team will use Kenley Jansen roughly once per series for the remainder of the season, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times writes.  This means Jansen will be skipped for some save situations and pitch in some non-save situations, all in order to keep him regularly sharp rather than tether this workload to whether or not the Dodgers have a ninth-inning lead.  It’s worth wondering if this strategy could also have to do with Jansen’s somewhat shaky performance this year, as the closer has a career-high 3.70 ERA over 48 2/3 innings.  Jansen blew his sixth save chance of the season last night, and now has 26 saves in 32 chances.
  • Roberts provided DiGiovanna and other reporters with updates on some injured Dodgers players.  Ross Stripling (right biceps tendinitis) seems the closest to returning, as he tossed a 25-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday and has a two-inning simulated game coming up before he begins a rehab assignment.  Rich Hill (flexor tendon strain) has upped his long-toss throwing to 150 feet and will next start throwing off a mound.  Hill isn’t expected back until sometime in September, though his path to a return is clearer than that of Alex Verdugo, as Roberts said Verdugo is still feeling pain in his ribcage and hasn’t yet resumed baseball activities.  Verdugo has been on the IL since August 6 due to a right oblique strain, and Roberts said the outfielder won’t return to action until at least the start of September.

Dodgers Activate Hyun-Jin Ryu, Option Casey Sadler

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The Dodgers have activated injured starter Hyun-Jin Ryu from the injured list, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. To clear a roster spot for Ryu, right-handed pitcher Casey Sadler has been optioned to Triple-A. Ryu will start Sunday’s series finale versus the Diamondbacks.

Ryu landed on the IL in early August owing to a minor neck issue. He last pitched on July 31, but he’ll return to the Dodgers’ rotation after the minimum ten days out of commission. Ryu has emerged as one of the National League’s premier starters, tossing 135 2/3 innings while maintaining a minuscule 1.53 ERA, placing him among the frontrunners for the NL Cy Young Award. After signing the qualifying offer last offseason, Ryu will have the chance to enter free agency in the winter following a career year.

Sadler’s demotion, meanwhile, can’t be attributed to a lack of results. Since joining the Dodgers in an early-July trade with the Rays, the 29-year-old has surrendered just one run in 12 1/3 innings of work. However, his peripheral numbers paint a slightly less rosy picture, as he’s struck out just 5.8 batters per nine innings. Still, Sadler has no doubt shown that he is deserving of a spot on a Major League roster, but the state of Dodgers’ deep pitching staff will squeeze him out of the mix for the time being.

Gurnick would add in a subsequent Tweet that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts would like to get a look at other relief options as the postseason approaches. The Dodgers’ expansive lead in the division should afford them greater flexibility to give opportunities to young pitchers who hope to claim a spot on the postseason roster. In addition to young standouts Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, pitchers like Caleb Ferguson and JT Chargois look like fringe candidates to crack the October roster, and Sadler’s demotion should give Roberts a chance to figure out exactly what he has in Ferguson and Chargois.

Dodgers Place Hyun-Jin Ryu On 10-Day IL

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The Dodgers announced that they’ve placed southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu on the 10-day injured list with neck soreness. His anticipated timeline to return isn’t yet known.

In other moves, the L.A. org announced the already reported arrival of exciting pitching prospect Dustin May while recalling fellow righty Tony Gonsolin. Reliever Dylan Floro was optioned out to create roster space. Southpaw Scott Alexander moves to the 60-day injured list to make 40-man space for May.

Ryu, 32, has been on an unbelievable run of success since accepting a qualifying offer to remain with the Dodgers. In 21 starts, he has run up 135 2/3 innings of 1.53 ERA pitching while maintaining 7.8 K/9 against 1.1 BB/9 along with a 51.5% groundball rate.

It’s unlikely the veteran lefty will be able to keep up quite that level of output the rest of the way, but he seems to be in top form at an important time for a Dodgers club that just placed a big bet on its existing pitching options at the trade deadline. Given his lengthy injury history and limited accumulation of innings in recent campaigns, it’s not surprising to see Ryu hit the shelf. There’s no indication of the seriousness of the injury, but it’s reasonably likely the Los Angeles organization was as concerned with finding Ryu some down time as it was worried about this particular malady.

Dodgers Notes: Seager, Bullpen Trades, Ryu

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The Dodgers announced today that they’ve activated Corey Seager from the injured list and optioned first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Seager, 25, will ultimately miss just under a month due to a strained left hamstring. He’ll now rejoin a Dodgers roster that recently welcomed David Freese back from the injured list and is set to get A.J. Pollock back as well. Los Angeles still has a 13.5 game lead on the second-place Diamondbacks and will likely be in an all-the-more commanding position with several key players back to full strength. However, the L.A. front office still has some work to do in the three weeks leading up to the trade deadline. Here’s a look at the latest chatter on the Dodgers…

  • The Dodgers have “varying levels of interest in multiple Giants relievers,” writes MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles harbor some degree of interest in each of Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and Reyes Moronta. That quartet likely appeals to the majority of contending clubs throughout the game, though, and there’s no indication within Morosi’s report that there are any substantive talks between the two sides. The Dodgers are loath to part with any of their top four prospects for a rental reliever, making Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz and their own Will Smith unlikely to change hands in any type of deal for one of San Francisco’s short-term assets.
  • If the recent comments from Pirates GM Neal Huntington didn’t sufficiently quash the Dodgers/Felipe Vazquez connection, Morosi writes that Pittsburgh would require “at least two” of the four aforementioned top prospects (Lux, May, Smith, Ruiz) to headline a Vazquez deal. Between that and Huntington’s declaration that the team’s “expectation and anticipation is that Felipe will be closing out playoff games, be it this year or in the future with us,” it doesn’t seem wise to bank on Vazquez landing in Los Angeles (or anywhere else, for that matter).
  • In a more high-level look at the Dodgers’ trade needs, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com points out that the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers have not been a team that has been willing to deal away its very best prospects, making a high-profile acquisition of Smith, Brad Hand, Vazquez, etc. less likely than some trades to more affordably acquire some second-tier relievers on the market. He suggests that a reunion with Watson or Blue Jays righty Daniel Hudson is more plausible than a marquee splash. (To be clear, those are speculative examples listed by Gurnick rather than specific trades that the Dodgers are actively pursuing.)
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu’s gamble on accepting the qualifying offer made by the Dodgers could prove one of the wisest decisions of the offseason, writes Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, who notes that Ryu is now positioned to cash in on a major contract (without the burden of draft compensation, as players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers). Indeed, over his past 191 1/3 regular-season innings, Ryu has a 1.83 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate. More broadly, Castillo’s column is a terrific look at the long road that Ryu took from intriguing high-school prospect coveted by the Dodgers and Twins to 2019 All-Star Game starter. Dodgers fans who have not previously familiarized themselves with Ryu’s path to stardom in the United States will want to be sure to give the story a read-through.

Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract

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Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu could have shopped his services to all 30 major league teams last offseason, but the career-long Dodger opted against going to the open market. Instead, Ryu accepted a $17.9MM qualifying offer to stay in Los Angeles, in part because of a long list of injury troubles that could have hampered his earning power. Dating back to 2013, the Korean-born Ryu’s first season in the majors, he has missed significant time because of arm problems (including shoulder and elbow surgeries) as well as foot and groin issues. The latter forced Ryu to the 10-day IL earlier this season, but he got off to a strong start before then and has come back far better since returning April 20.

After throwing just 82 1/3 innings last season, Ryu has already amassed 73 frames through the first two months of 2019. Ryu shut out the Mets over 7 2/3 innings on Thursday to finish May with an incredible four scoreless starts in six tries. Across 45 2/3 innings this month, Ryu pitched to a near-spotless 0.59 ERA with 36 strikeouts against a meager three walks. He now owns easily the majors’ leading ERA (1.48) and walk rate (0.62 per nine, with 8.51 K/9). His success in the run prevention and walk categories doesn’t look like a fluke either. Ryu, after all, put up a 1.97 ERA with 1.64 BB/9 (against 9.73 K/9) during his injury-shortened 2018.

Even if Ryu isn’t quite as great as his ERA indicates, his 2.78 FIP over the past season-plus is befitting of a front-line starter and ranks sixth among all pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings since 2018. He’s behind a pretty good quintet of Jacob deGrom, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Gerrit Cole in that regard. DeGrom, Sale and Corbin have each scored nine-figure contracts going back to the offseason, while Cole figures to join them when he reaches free agency during the upcoming winter.

Ryu’s also on schedule to reach the open market, though he’s not going to cash in to the same extent as Cole. Concerns over Ryu’s durability figure to combine with the soon-to-be 33-year-old’s age and 2013-17 performance (when he was good but not great) to cap his earning power. However, he can look in his own locker room to find a lefty who overcame injury questions, advanced age and a far shorter track record than Ryu’s to recently score a large payday in free agency. That’s Rich Hill, whom the Dodgers re-signed to a three-year, $48MM guarantee heading into 2017 – his age-37 season.

Free agency worked out for Hill, but one would be remiss to ignore the fact that the process has taken an unfriendly turn for certain hurlers since he landed his payday. Jake Arrieta received less guaranteed cash than expected in 2018, while Gio Gonzalez settled for a minor league deal entering this season and Dallas Keuchel remains unsigned. At the same time, however, Nathan Eovaldi, Alex Cobb, J.A. Happ, Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn did surmount obstacles of their own en route to $30MM-plus guarantees in the previous two offseasons.

We’ll use the $30MM number as a jumping-off point for this poll, but if Ryu continues to perform like a front-line option and stay reasonably healthy, he could blow past it.

(Poll link for app users)

Dodgers Place Hyun-Jin Ryu On Injured List

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April 9: The Dodgers announced that Ryu has been placed on the injured list. Righty J.T. Chargois has been recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City in his place and will join the Dodgers’ bullpen.

April 8, 11:45pm: Ryu said after the game that he does not feel he has suffered a significant injury, as Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links). The southpaw characterized his exit as precautionary. That’s certainly promising, though manager Dave Roberts made clear that Ryu was nevertheless destined for a stint on the injured list.

8:25pm: The Dodgers may well send another high-priced lefty to the inured list after watching Hyun-Jin Ryu leave the mound early tonight. He’s dealing with a left groin strain, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter.

There’s added concern here due to Ryu’s history. He suffered a torn left groin muscle last year, ultimately missing about ten weeks of action. Ryu ended up making 15 starts, pitching well enough to receive a qualifying offer — which he accepted.

For the Dodgers, issuing Ryu the QO represented a bet that he’d be on the hill enough to warrant a $17.9MM price tag on one year of his services. He’s worth that and more when healthy, but his availability has been something of a flip of the coin for much of his MLB career. Since coming to the majors from his native Korea in advance of the 2013 campaign, Ryu carries a 3.17 ERA but has averaged only 95 frames and 16 starts annually.

Ryu joins Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill on the shelf. Fortunately, those hurlers are making progress (the former in particular) and the Dodgers have an exceptionally deep group of pitchers. And the club isn’t exactly suffering in the results department at the moment. Still, the rotation resources have already been strained, so it’s worrying to see another potentially significant injury.

Six Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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The seven free agents who were issued qualifying offers by their former teams must decide by 4pm CT today whether or not to accept.  You can get the full rundown of how the qualifying offer system works here, but in brief — if a player takes the offer, they will return to their team on a one-year, $17.9MM contract for the 2019 season and can never again be issued a QO in any future trips to the free agent market.  If a player rejects the offer, their former team will receive a compensatory draft pick should another club sign the player.  (The signing team will also have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some funds from their international signing bonus pool.)

Most free agents reject the QO in search of a richer, more long-term contract, and this is expected to be the case for most (though not all) of this year’s qualifying offer class.  The MLB Player’s Association has now announced all of these decisions, so they’re all official:

  • A.J. Pollock will enter free agency after turning down the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred.  He’ll be the top center fielder available and should draw interest from a fair number of teams, though his market demand is not yet clear.
  • Bryce Harper declined the Nationals’ qualifying offer, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). That’s utterly unsurprising, as the superstar is lining up nine-figure offers as we speak.
  • Craig Kimbrel is heading to the market rather than taking the one-year pact to stay with the Red Sox, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to tweet. The veteran closer is expected to command a much larger and lengthier contract in free agency.
  • Patrick Corbin won’t be accepting the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, as per Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  No surprises with this decision, as Corbin is set to receive the biggest contract of any free agent pitcher this winter.
  • Yasmani Grandal won’t accept the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter).  Even in the wake of another mediocre postseason performance, there was little doubt Grandal would turn down the QO, as he projects to earn a strong contract as the best catcher in the free agent market.
  • Dallas Keuchel has rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  The ground-ball specialist and 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner will hit the open market, and it remains to be seen if a return to Houston could be in the cards.  The Astros could also lose Charlie Morton in free agency, and Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu has accepted the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, as we explored in detail earlier today.  Ryu becomes the sixth player to ever accept a QO, out of the 80 free agents who have been offered the deal over the last seven offseasons.

Hyun-Jin Ryu To Accept Dodgers’ Qualifying Offer

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3:04pm: Ryu will indeed accept the qualifying offer, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets.

12:01pm: Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu is “most likely” going to accept the one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer issued to him by the Dodgers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) hears from a source, though nothing has been finalized as of yet.  The seven free agents who have qualifying offers pending have until 4pm CT today to accept or decline the one-year contracts.

Of those seven names, Ryu was the only one who seemed like a realistic candidate to accept the QO, given his significant injury history.  Separate surgeries on Ryu’s shoulder and elbow cost him all of the 2015 season and limited him to just a single game in 2016, and a torn groin sidelined Ryu for almost three months of the 2018 campaign.  The southpaw also had DL stints for more minor hip and foot issues in 2017.

These health concerns surely would’ve impacted Ryu’s stock on the free agent market, plus rejecting the qualifying offer would’ve meant that Ryu’s next team would’ve had to surrender draft picks and potentially international signing pool funds in order to sign him.  The QO, Ryu’s health history, and his age (he turns 32 in March) all factored into a relatively modest placement for the left-hander on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list — Ryu was ranked 20th, with a projected three-year, $33MM contract (from the Dodgers).

If he does end up accepting the qualifying offer, Ryu would lock in a big payday for 2019 that is worth more than half of that $33MM projection.  The $17.9MM salary, in fact, would represent just under half of Ryu’s entire Major League earnings to this point, as he originally signed a six-year, $36MM contract with Los Angeles for over the 2013-18 seasons.  He’ll get another opportunity to prove that he can remain healthy over a full season, while doing so in a familiar environment of Dodger Stadium and playing for a contending team.  Ryu is also ineligible to ever receive another qualifying offer in any future trips into the free agent market, and thus wouldn’t have any further draft pick/international money compensation attached to his services.

From the Dodgers’ perspective, committing $17.9MM to an oft-injured starter is something of a risk, considering that the team already has several rotation options in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda, and Alex Wood (not to mention youngsters like Brock Stewart or Caleb Ferguson).  Starting pitching depth has been a centerpiece of the Dodgers’ success, however, as the team has dealt with injuries to virtually all of its starters over the last few years.  Even in the unlikely event that all of these arms stay healthy, the Dodgers could still deploy the excess pitchers in the bullpen — Wood, Stripling, and Maeda all spent time as relievers down the stretch last season.

Furthermore, Ryu pitched so well in 2018 that the Dodgers felt a one-year, $17.9MM investment was worth seeing if the lefty could stay healthy and duplicate his performance.  Ryu posted a 1.97 ERA, 5.93 K/BB rate, and 9.7 K/9 over 82 1/3 innings last season, with a 90.2 mph average fastball that was in line with his pre-surgery velocity.  There also wasn’t much batted-ball luck baked into Ryu’s numbers, as his wOBA and xwOBA were a perfect match (.268).

Ryu would become the sixth free agent to ever accept a qualifying offer, of the 80 who have been issued the one-year deals since the QO system was introduced for the 2012-13 offseason.  Ryu’s situation bears a lot of similarities to that of Brett Anderson, whose own lengthy injury history also factored into his decision to accept a qualifying offer from the Dodgers following the 2015 season rather than test free agency.

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