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Hyun-Jin Ryu

Six Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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The seven free agents who were issued qualifying offers by their former teams must decide by 4pm CT today whether or not to accept.  You can get the full rundown of how the qualifying offer system works here, but in brief — if a player takes the offer, they will return to their team on a one-year, $17.9MM contract for the 2019 season and can never again be issued a QO in any future trips to the free agent market.  If a player rejects the offer, their former team will receive a compensatory draft pick should another club sign the player.  (The signing team will also have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some funds from their international signing bonus pool.)

Most free agents reject the QO in search of a richer, more long-term contract, and this is expected to be the case for most (though not all) of this year’s qualifying offer class.  The MLB Player’s Association has now announced all of these decisions, so they’re all official:

  • A.J. Pollock will enter free agency after turning down the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred.  He’ll be the top center fielder available and should draw interest from a fair number of teams, though his market demand is not yet clear.
  • Bryce Harper declined the Nationals’ qualifying offer, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). That’s utterly unsurprising, as the superstar is lining up nine-figure offers as we speak.
  • Craig Kimbrel is heading to the market rather than taking the one-year pact to stay with the Red Sox, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to tweet. The veteran closer is expected to command a much larger and lengthier contract in free agency.
  • Patrick Corbin won’t be accepting the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, as per Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  No surprises with this decision, as Corbin is set to receive the biggest contract of any free agent pitcher this winter.
  • Yasmani Grandal won’t accept the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter).  Even in the wake of another mediocre postseason performance, there was little doubt Grandal would turn down the QO, as he projects to earn a strong contract as the best catcher in the free agent market.
  • Dallas Keuchel has rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  The ground-ball specialist and 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner will hit the open market, and it remains to be seen if a return to Houston could be in the cards.  The Astros could also lose Charlie Morton in free agency, and Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu has accepted the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, as we explored in detail earlier today.  Ryu becomes the sixth player to ever accept a QO, out of the 80 free agents who have been offered the deal over the last seven offseasons.

Hyun-Jin Ryu To Accept Dodgers’ Qualifying Offer

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3:04pm: Ryu will indeed accept the qualifying offer, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets.

12:01pm: Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu is “most likely” going to accept the one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer issued to him by the Dodgers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) hears from a source, though nothing has been finalized as of yet.  The seven free agents who have qualifying offers pending have until 4pm CT today to accept or decline the one-year contracts.

Of those seven names, Ryu was the only one who seemed like a realistic candidate to accept the QO, given his significant injury history.  Separate surgeries on Ryu’s shoulder and elbow cost him all of the 2015 season and limited him to just a single game in 2016, and a torn groin sidelined Ryu for almost three months of the 2018 campaign.  The southpaw also had DL stints for more minor hip and foot issues in 2017.

These health concerns surely would’ve impacted Ryu’s stock on the free agent market, plus rejecting the qualifying offer would’ve meant that Ryu’s next team would’ve had to surrender draft picks and potentially international signing pool funds in order to sign him.  The QO, Ryu’s health history, and his age (he turns 32 in March) all factored into a relatively modest placement for the left-hander on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list — Ryu was ranked 20th, with a projected three-year, $33MM contract (from the Dodgers).

If he does end up accepting the qualifying offer, Ryu would lock in a big payday for 2019 that is worth more than half of that $33MM projection.  The $17.9MM salary, in fact, would represent just under half of Ryu’s entire Major League earnings to this point, as he originally signed a six-year, $36MM contract with Los Angeles for over the 2013-18 seasons.  He’ll get another opportunity to prove that he can remain healthy over a full season, while doing so in a familiar environment of Dodger Stadium and playing for a contending team.  Ryu is also ineligible to ever receive another qualifying offer in any future trips into the free agent market, and thus wouldn’t have any further draft pick/international money compensation attached to his services.

From the Dodgers’ perspective, committing $17.9MM to an oft-injured starter is something of a risk, considering that the team already has several rotation options in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda, and Alex Wood (not to mention youngsters like Brock Stewart or Caleb Ferguson).  Starting pitching depth has been a centerpiece of the Dodgers’ success, however, as the team has dealt with injuries to virtually all of its starters over the last few years.  Even in the unlikely event that all of these arms stay healthy, the Dodgers could still deploy the excess pitchers in the bullpen — Wood, Stripling, and Maeda all spent time as relievers down the stretch last season.

Furthermore, Ryu pitched so well in 2018 that the Dodgers felt a one-year, $17.9MM investment was worth seeing if the lefty could stay healthy and duplicate his performance.  Ryu posted a 1.97 ERA, 5.93 K/BB rate, and 9.7 K/9 over 82 1/3 innings last season, with a 90.2 mph average fastball that was in line with his pre-surgery velocity.  There also wasn’t much batted-ball luck baked into Ryu’s numbers, as his wOBA and xwOBA were a perfect match (.268).

Ryu would become the sixth free agent to ever accept a qualifying offer, of the 80 who have been issued the one-year deals since the QO system was introduced for the 2012-13 offseason.  Ryu’s situation bears a lot of similarities to that of Brett Anderson, whose own lengthy injury history also factored into his decision to accept a qualifying offer from the Dodgers following the 2015 season rather than test free agency.

Dodgers To Issue Qualifying Offer To Hyun-Jin Ryu

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The Dodgers have extended a qualifying offer to left-handed starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). He’ll have ten days to decide whether to accept the one-year, $17.9MM offer.

While all of the other qualifying offer recipients were fairly straightforward cases, it was hardly clear that Ryu would receive one. But the Los Angeles organization has shown time and again that it is not afraid of risking money on talented pitchers who come with health questions, so they have decided to stake a hefty pile of cash on a player they originally signed out of Korea six seasons ago.

Since coming to Los Angeles, Ryu has been steadily excellent — when healthy. He owns a career 3.20 ERA in the majors, but hasn’t yet cracked 600 total innings because of significant shoulder and elbow surgeries along with a groin tear. In the 2018 campaign, Ryu recorded 82 1/3 frames of 1.97 ERA ball, with an appealing mix of 89 strikeouts and just 15 walks backing the results.

Given the health history, the 31-year-old Ryu may well consider taking the offer. If not, he’ll enter the free-agent market in search of a contract that likely won’t pay him quite at that annual rate, but could certainly included much more total guaranteed money. Of course, his market would be harmed to some extent by the fact that a signing team would need to surrender draft compensation to add him.

Ultimately, the Dodgers will end the day having issued qualifying offers to two players: Ryu and Yasmani Grandal. The club unquestionably would have had another in Clayton Kershaw, but locked him up with a new deal before the deadline for him to exercise an opt-out clause.

Dodgers Will Make Qualifying Offer To Yasmani Grandal

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The Dodgers are “definitely” issuing a $17.9MM qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal before today’s deadline to do so, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The team could also issue a QO to left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, though there’s still an internal debate whether to do so or simply let Ryu hit free agency without the potential for draft pick compensation.

The decision to issue Grandal a QO at that rate may come as a surprise for some, particularly in the wake of an ugly postseason effort that was underscored by uncharacteristic defensive miscues. But Grandal was one of the game’s most productive catchers with the bat this season, has long rated as an elite pitch framer (arguably the best and most consistent in baseball) and is consistently average or better in terms of controlling the running game. The switch-hitter will turn 30 next month and, even in spite of that ugly postseason showing, should have little trouble securing at least a three-year contract in an offseason where several contenders are in clear need of upgrades behind the plate.

It’d be a surprise to see Grandal accept the QO, though even if he does so, the Dodgers would likely be pleased to retain him on a one-year deal after he hit .241/.349/.466 with 24 home runs in 2018. Only Salvador Perez hit more home runs than Grandal among big league catchers, and only Wilson Ramos and J.T. Realmuto turned in a better all-around offensive performance when adjusting for league and park (by measure of wRC+). By that measure, the average catcher was 16 percent worse than a league-average hitter; Grandal, conversely, was 25 percent better than a league-average hitter.

That gap in production should lead to considerable interest on the open market. The Nationals, Rockies, Red Sox, Astros, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Mets, Angels, Twins and Dodgers themselves are among the teams who could use help behind the plate next year.

As for Ryu, the decision likely boils down to the Dodgers’ tolerance for risk. The lefty was excellent when healthy this season, pitching to a masterful 1.97 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 in 82 1/3 innings. Ryu, however, missed three months with a significant groin tear and has made just 40 starts over the past four seasons combined. While his performance on a per-inning basis is undoubtedly worth that level of pay in today’s baseball climate, the Dodgers would face the risk that Ryu would accept the QO given concerns other teams would have about surrendering draft compensation and paying a premium for a pitcher with such pronounced durability issues.

Dodgers Notes: Roberts, Urias, Ibanez, Ryu, Kershaw

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Though Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts technically isn’t under contract for the 2019 season, the organization has a club option on him that could still be exercised. General manager Farhan Zaidi, though, indicated in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that a longer arrangement could be in the works (Twitter link, with audio).  “As far as Dave goes, those conversations have been ongoing for the last couple months,” said Zaidi. “As the conversation’s going, certainly we would prefer to work out something longer-term than just picking up the option. All sides feel good about it. [We] haven’t been commenting too extensively, publicly, but obviously he’s done a tremendous job with this club.”

Roberts is a somewhat polarizing figure among Dodgers fans, as many are frustrated with the Dodgers’ matchup-driven lineup construction, among other critiques. The Dodgers, though, have landed in back-to-back World Series and won three consecutive division titles under Roberts.

Here’s more out of Los Angeles as the Dodgers gear up for Game 3 against the Red Sox…

  • Though left-hander Julio Urias is thriving out of the bullpen for the Dodgers since returning from major shoulder surgery, Roberts told reporters that the 22-year-old’s future is still as a starter (Twitter link via Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times). Urias won’t necessarily be penciled into the Opening Day rotation, it seems, but Roberts made clear that Urias will work as a starter for the Dodgers “at some point next year.” The Dodgers will be cautious with Urias’ workload in 2019, which is likely why they’re not making definitive declarations about his timeline to rejoin the rotation at present. His return from anterior capsule repair has been nothing short of remarkable, as he’s pitched 11 1/3 innings between the regular season and the playoffs and yielded just two runs with 12 strikeouts and no walks allowed.
  • Raul Ibanez, who is serving as a special assistant to Zaidi and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, turned down the opportunity to interview for managerial openings this offseason, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports in his weekly notes column. Ibanez has long been tabbed as a potential skipper, though apparently he’s content in his current role. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him emerge as a serious candidate in future offseasons, though. Heyman also speculates that a qualifying offer could be made to Hyun-Jin Ryu and touches on Clayton Kershaw’s opt-out clause, noting that both Kershaw and the team hope to work something out. Kershaw is likely to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his contract, though the Dodgers could try to put together an extension offer that’ll keep him Los Angeles for a longer period.

NL Notes: Pence, Tebow, Wheeler, Ryu

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It seems Giants outfielder Hunter Pence has yet to fully resolve his future. As Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, the veteran suggests he’s focused on appreciating the remainder of the 2018 season — the final campaign under his current contract. The 35-year-old indicates that he’s not yet sure of his outlook for 2019, but does tell Schulman that he “want[s] to play next year.” It certainly has not been Pence’s finest effort on the field, however, putting his future in doubt even if he prefers to give it another go. After struggling last year, Pence has fallen even further. Through 213 plate appearances, he owns only a .215/.254/.315 slash with three home runs. With his rough 2017 as a backdrop, it’s questionable at best that he’ll receive MLB offers this coming offseason.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • The Mets anticipate that Tim Tebow will be back for a third season with the organization in 2019, as Tim Healey of Newsday reports. The former NFL QB has been sidelined since the middle of the summer owing to a broken hamate bone, but otherwise ended things on a high note with a strong run at the plate. Of course, his overall line — .273/.336/.399 with six home runs and 103 strikeouts in 298 plate appearances — was not overly impressive for a 31-year-old corner outfielder at Double-A. But it’s actually quite the accomplishment given how things appeared at the outset of the experiment, and it’ll be interesting to see how Tebow performs next year at Triple-A. “I’d be surprised if he didn’t want to continue,” said assistant GM John Ricco.
  • Mets righty Zack Wheeler has had an incredibly exciting bounceback campaign, so much so that it may need to end early due to his accumulation of innings. As Aaron Bracy of the Associated Press writes (via Newsday), the club is considering putting Wheeler on ice the rest of the way rather than having him take back to the mound. Manager Mickey Callaway says it’s a matter of the Mets “want[ing] to make sure we’re taking care of the player.” Wheeler is now 99 innings past the 86 1/3 he compiled in 2017, a season in which he was still not at full health. With nothing left for Wheeler to prove or for the team to accomplish in the 2018 season, it stands to reason that caution is warranted. Wheeler, after all, now looks to be a key piece — or trade asset — after working to a 3.31 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.
  • The Dodgers have their own pitching comeback tale of sorts, as southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu has been impressive when he has been available. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports, the veteran hurler says he’s not taking anything for granted after several injury-riddled campaigns. Indeed, even after making 24 starts last year, he was unable to participate in the postseason. Through 70 1/3 frames over 13 outings in 2018, however, the lefty owns an excellent 2.18 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. He just throttled the Rockies in a key divisional tilt and now looks to be an important part of the late-season L.A. pitching mix. It’s opportune timing both for the team and the player. Ryu is slated to enter free agency this winter, where he’ll be a risky but intriguing option.

Dodgers Activate Hyun-Jin Ryu, Place Ross Stripling On DL

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The Dodgers have activated left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu from the 60-day disabled list after an absence of nearly three months, the team announced this afternoon. Roster space for Ryu was created by placing Ross Stripling on the 10-day DL due to inflammation in his lower back and by transferring Tony Cingrani from the 10-day DL to the 60-day DL. Manager Dave Roberts suggests to Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times (Twitter link) that it’s not clear whether Stripling will be ready for activation once his 10-day window is up, stating that that determination is “up for debate.”

Ryu has been out since early May after suffering a significant groin tear in which part of his muscle tore completely off the bone. Prior to incurring that gruesome injury, Ryu was in the midst of a strong start to the 2018 campaign, working to a pristine 2.12 ERA with 36 strikeouts against 10 walks through 29 2/3 frames. He’ll join Clayton Kershaw, recently activated lefty Alex Wood, Rich Hill and Walker Buehler in the Los Angeles rotation for the time being.

Stripling, like fellow righty Kenta Maeda, had recently been shifted to a bullpen role despite generally strong results in the rotation this season. The L.A. relief corps has been nothing short of disastrous lately, with multiple relievers struggling since Kenley Jansen hit the disabled list due to an irregular heartbeat. His absence will make Roberts’ job even more difficult as he tries to piece together the team’s late innings in light of the ongoing struggles throughout the ’pen.

As for Cingrani, while his transfer to the 60-day disabled list clouds the lefty’s timeline for a return, it does appear that the Dodgers expect him back at some point in 2018. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets that Roberts expressed optimism that Cingrani will be back next month, in time to help the team in the final push down the stretch. While Cingrani’s 4.84 ERA through 22 1/3 innings wasn’t particularly impressive, he did tally a brilliant 36-to-6 K/BB ratio with a 51.1 percent grounder rate in that time, prompting metrics like FIP (2.17), xFIP (2.34) and SIERA (1.90) to forecast a considerably better outlook.

Dodgers Claim P.J. Conlon

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The Dodgers have claimed left-hander P.J. Conlon off waivers from the Mets; the club announced the move. Conlon will be assigned to Triple-A Oklahoma City, and left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu has been transferred to the 60-day DL in order to make room on the 40-man roster.

Conlon hasn’t exactly impressed in his first taste of big league action; he’s allowed seven earned runs in his first two big league starts spanning just 5 2/3 innings. The Mets apparently didn’t need to see much more, as they designated him for assignment on Thursday in order to clear room to add a pair of right-handers to the roster. Juan Lagares was also transferred to the 60-day disabled list at that time.

Even in Triple-A last season, Conlon pitched to a whopping 6.58 ERA in 39 2/3 innings spanning eight starts. A mid-round pick of the Mets back in 2015, Conlon rocketed up the minor league ladder to make his MLB debut while spending no more than one year at each level of the minors. It’s almost curious that the Mets gave up on Conlon without ever giving him more than ten starts above the Double-A level, particularly given his serviceable results at Double-A in 2017.

The Dodgers have some rotation issues of their own, and Conlon could provide some decent minor-league depth. After all, they just learned they’ll be without fellow lefty Clayton Kershaw for another month (though obviously Conlon wouldn’t be much of a consolation prize in that regard).

Hyun-Jin Ryu Out Until Second Half; Walker Buehler Joining Dodgers’ Rotation

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12:37pm: The diagnosis is brutal for the Dodgers, as Roberts revealed to reporters that Ryu won’t return before the All-Star break (Twitter links via Pedro Moura of The Athletic). The injury sounds rather gruesome. Roberts explained that a muscle in Ryu’s groin tore completely off the bone.

Ryu will be replaced in the rotation by top prospect Walker Buehler (Twitter link via Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times). J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group adds that Buehler is on an innings limit, however, so he although he will nominally be the team’s fifth starter, he may not technically start every fifth day.

12:12pm: The Dodgers announced that they’ve placed left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu on the 10-day disabled list with a left groin strain and optioned infielder Breyvic Valera to Triple-A on Thursday. In a pair of corresponding moves, utilityman Tim Locastro and right-hander Yimi Garcia have been recalled from Triple-A.

The press release didn’t include any sort of timetable for Ryu’s return, though manager Dave Roberts said after last night’s game that the strain was a “pretty good” one and called the injury a “big loss” for the team, which doesn’t exactly exude optimism regarding a minimal DL stay for Ryu. Roberts is hardly exaggerating when he calls any absence for Ryu significant, as the 31-year-old has dominated opposing lineups in 2018, working to a 2.12 ERA with 10.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and 56.7 percent ground-ball rate in 29 2/3 innings.

Garcia, 27, will give the Dodgers the potential for a quality boost to the relief corps in what will be his first MLB action since undergoing Tommy John surgery back in 2016. Garcia possesses a 3.12 ERA with 9.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9 and a 30.6 percent grounder rate in 75 innings at the Major League level and looked to be an emerging key cog in the L.A. bullpen before incurring his torn ligament. So far in Triple-A, he’s allowed three runs in 7 2/3 innings of work and picked up seven strikeouts without issuing a walk.

Locastro, 25, has experience at both middle-infield slots and in the outfield corners. He has just one MLB plate appearance under his belt but was off to a fast start in Triple-A, hitting .342/.448/.507 there. Valera, 26, has similarly impressive Triple-A numbers this season and was hitless in four MLB plate appearances. Locastro, though, has more recent experience at shortstop, so it seems he’s viewed as the better option to help provide depth in Corey Seager’s absence for the time being.

Dodgers Notes: Ryu, Turner, Seager, Machado

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Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu exited tonight’s start with a groin strain after throwing a 64mph pitch that was the slowest pitch he’s ever thrown in the Majors (h/t: J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group, on Twitter). The Dodgers announced a left groin strain for Ryu, and manager Dave Roberts didn’t sound optimistic about the injury postgame, calling it a “pretty good strain” and adding that Ryu is headed for an MRI (Twitter link via Pedro Moura of The Athletic). A lengthy absence for Ryu would be a major blow for the Dodgers, who’ve no doubt relished watching the southpaw bounce back to peak form with a dominant 2.12 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and 56.7 percent ground-ball rate in 29 2/3 innings thus far in 2018.

The Dodgers have been hammered by injuries early this season, with Corey Seager done for the season due to Tommy John surgery and Justin Turner still yet to suit up after suffering a broken wrist in Spring Training. The Dodgers don’t sound especially optimistic on Turner at the moment, either, as Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times tweets that skipper Dave Roberts simply said tonight that he has “no idea” when Turner will be cleared to head out on a minor league rehab assignment.

A bit more out of Los Angeles…

  • Seager, Roberts and GM Farhan Zaidi spoke with reporters at Chase Field following the announcement of Seager’s devastating injury (link via McCullough). While there was immediate speculation about the possibility of the Dodgers seeking out a trade, Zaidi suggested that for the time being, the Dodgers will look to in-house options, with Chris Taylor assuming responsibilities at shortstop. (Few teams, after all, are willing to part with a difference-making infielder at this point on the calendar.) Seager told the media that he felt his elbow give out over the weekend when making a relay throw on Sunday, explaining the feeling as a sudden bout of numbness in his elbow. The 23-year-old star dealt with bone chips and inflammation in the elbow last summer, according to McCullough, though extensive testing led medical experts to recommend against surgery at season’s end. It’s not clear how much, if any, ligament damage existed in Seager’s elbow following the 2017 season, of course, and undergoing a major surgery (especially Tommy John surgery) at that point still could very well have wiped him out for most, if not all of the 2018 season.
  • In the wake of the Seager injury, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times spoke to Manny Machado about the widespread speculation of the Dodgers potentially pursuing him on the trade market. Machado said he’s not had anyone reach out to him about the possibility, and Shaikin writes that the superstar infielder didn’t sound overly amenable to granting a potential trade partner a window to negotiate an extension. “Everyone has waited for the time to become a free agent,” said Machado. “You want to go out there and explore your options.” The 25-year-old did leave the door open a bit, adding that there’s “a price for everything” before stating that he hopes to remain with the Orioles at least through the 2018 season. Of course, as Machado also acknowledged, his future is largely out of his hands; he has no say over whether he’s traded or remains an Oriole. Per Shaikin, the O’s have no plans to accelerate their timeline for a potential Machado deal now that the Dodgers have a glaring need. Certainly, it’s possible that other clubs will join the pursuit later this year, thus driving up the price. And while the O’s had a dreadful start to the season, the organization undoubtedly is still holding out faint hope for a rebound in May and early June before conceding that the season is lost.

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