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Hyun-Jin Ryu

Twins Targeted Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu Before Winning Donaldson Sweepstakes

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Before the holidays, the Twins offered Josh Donaldson a four-year, $84MM contract that would have made him the second-highest paid player in team history after Joe Mauer, writes Phil Miller in a profile well worth a read from the Star Tribune. Another interesting tidbit from Miller confirmed that Zack Wheeler had been the Twins’ primary target at the outset of the offseason, shifting only to Donaldson after missing out on Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Donaldson offered a potent bat, of course, but the ability to improve their infield defense at third (and by effect, their pitching) also keyed the Twins on the Bringer of Rain. 

Donaldson and his agent Dan Lozano fielded recruitment efforts from all corners of the Minnesota Twins extended universe before committing, from Miguel Sano over video eagerly offering to accommodate Donaldson by changing positions, to a former tennis professional and friend of Donaldson’s who happens to be a Twins fan, to the substantial recruitment effort put in ink by Twins’ ownership when they offered him a four-year, $92MM contract. The fifth year, $16MM team option helped push the deal over the edge, especially once the Twins’ agreed to set the buyout amount at $8MM. If the option is picked up, the deal becomes a five-year, $100MM pact.

Some of the heaviest lifting was done in a meeting between Donaldson, Lozano, Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli, General Manager Thad Levine and Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey. Baldelli sold Donaldson on clubhouse culture and his plans for deploying Donaldson. The front office put together metrics on their 2019 success and profiled some of the talent on its way to Minneapolis from the minor leagues, establishing a belief that the Twins will remain in contention throughout Donaldson’s tenure.  

Misinformation persisted in the media throughout, with Lozano suspected of leaking the $110MM asking price in the hopes of a team with deep pockets (like the Dodgers) matching the number. It worked, in a way, as the Twins realized Donaldson must not have had the offer he wanted, so they set out with renewed enthusiasm (and more money). Obviously, $100MM turned out to be the magic number.

Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Boras, Shapiro

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The Blue Jays have remade their pitching staff this winter with the additions of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi. Along with the return on Matt Shoemaker and the development of Anthony Kay, Trent Thornton, Ryan Borucki and Nate Pearson, the Blue Jays have plenty of options for their 2020 rotation. It doesn’t come together, however, without Ryu at the top. With that in mind, let’s check in on some of the factors that brought the Korean southpaw to Toronto…

  • To remember the last time one of Scott Boras’ clients signed with the Blue Jays, he had to go all the way back to the mid-eighties. Bill Caudill signed a two-year, $2.37MM deal to play the 1985 and 1986 seasons in Toronto. Caudill is now one of a couple ex-clients to work for Boras. But until Hyun-Jin Ryu’s four-year, $80MM deal, the Blue Jays were one of Boras’ favorite teams to pick on, per the Athletic’s John Lott. It wasn’t personal, of course, Boras simply believes Toronto’s market should make them a top-10 team capable of signing top free agents while retaining their own homegrown stars – a trend he’s starting to see with the current Toronto regime. And of course, it behooves Boras to push potential large market teams to open their wallets.
  • As for Ryu’s choice to join the Blue Jays, the decision largely came down to where he wanted to raise his young family. That said, Toronto’s early and persistent interest also helped bring Ryu north of the border, per the Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath. Long-term security wasn’t necessarily a driving factor for Ryu, though securing a four-year deal for the 32-year-old certainly counts as a win for Boras. Team President Mark Shapiro spoke on Ryu’s importance to the community, saying: “It was more recognizing what an incredibly international city Toronto is, very aware of the Korean population here, both in students and business and what a tightknit community it is. And so feeling like it would be a great place for Ryu and his family to be and feeling like it would be a great synergy with Toronto and Canada, in general. That was a consideration — not a driving factor, but certainly something that we thought would make for a great alignment in the relationship moving forward.”

Blue Jays Sign Hyun-Jin Ryu

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Two and a half months after GM Ross Atkins vowed to find pitching that could “contribute in significant ways,” the Blue Jays have formally announced the signing of one of the best pitchers on the market, left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, to a four-year contract. The Boras Corporation client will reportedly be guaranteed $80MM, which will be paid out evenly at $20MM per season. Ryu’s deal doesn’t have any opt-out provisions but is said to contain a partial no-trade clause.

The news ends a spirited market for Ryu’s services, as at least six teams (the Dodgers, Angels, Braves, Padres, Cardinals, and Twins) were all known to have some degree of interest in the southpaw this offseason.  While all of those teams were either playoff clubs in 2019 or are planning to contend in 2020, it was the rebuilding Blue Jays who made the big strike, signaling that their own effort to return to contention is coming sooner rather than later.  The Jays were known to be looking at both the top tier and the lower tiers of the pitching market, though the signing still comes as a surprise, given how Toronto’s previous acquisitions had been more modest.

Ryu joins Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, and Shun Yamaguchi as newly-acquired members of Toronto’s rotation, completely overhauling a starting staff that was expected to be a major point of emphasis this winter.  Yamaguchi could wind up in the bullpen if the Jays go with some combination of in-house candidates Matt Shoemaker, Trent Thornton, Ryan Borucki, Anthony Kay, or Jacob Waguespack for the final two rotation places.  Star prospect Nate Pearson is also expected to make his big league debut at some point in 2020, so one of those rotation spots could ultimately be earmarked for him down the stretch, or the Jays could ease Pearson into the majors as a reliever.

While Pearson may be the ace of the future, Ryu is now firmly the ace of the present.  The lefty finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting last season on the heels of a league-best 2.32 ERA and 1.2 BB/9, as well as a 6.79 K/BB rate, 8.0 K/9, and 50.4% grounder rate.  ERA predictors weren’t quite as impressed (3.10 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 3.77 SIERA) with Ryu’s performance, while his modest 90.6mph fastball finished in the bottom 11th percentile in both fastball velocity and spin rate.

On the plus side of the Statcast coin, Ryu was also one of the league’s best pitchers in limiting hard-hit balls and exit velocity, and his .263 wOBA was only slightly lower than his .281 xwOBA.  Despite the lack of fastball velocity, Ryu still had the 26th most effective heater of any qualified pitcher in the sport according to Fangraphs’ Pitch Value metrics, while his changeup was one of the ten most effective pitches in all of baseball in 2019.

Perhaps most importantly, Ryu also tossed 182 2/3 innings last year, his highest workload since his 2013 debut season in MLB and the first time he’d topped even the 126 2/3 inning plateau since 2014.  Ryu had only a couple of minimal injured list stints for minor neck and groin soreness in 2019, as opposed to the much more serious setbacks that plagued him earlier in his career.  Shoulder and elbow surgeries limited Ryu to just a single game in 2015-16, he missed close to three months in 2018 due to a torn groin, and IL stints for foot and hip problems limited him to 126 2/3 IP in 2017.

This injury history and Ryu’s age (he turns 33 in March) were reasons why MLBTR projected him to only land a three-year, $54MM deal, despite his superb 2019 campaign and his overall strong track record in 740 1/3 career innings in the majors.  The Blue Jays could have been compelled to go to four years to convince Ryu to join a team that didn’t offer as clear a path to immediate contention as some of his other suitors.

Even with Ryu signed, it remains to be seen if the Jays will emerge as a threat to return to the playoffs after three straight losing seasons.  The team will be counting on its young core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Danny Jansen to all take steps forward, while more experienced hands like Randal Grichuk (who had been Toronto’s highest-paid player prior to the Ryu signing) and the newly-acquired Travis Shaw will need to improve on mediocre 2019 performances.

The Ryu signing also re-aligns expectations for the rest of the Jays’ offseason.  On paper, this could be Toronto’s version of the Cubs’ deal with Jon Lester prior to the 2015 season — the big-ticket veteran pitching acquisition that indicated the rebuilding Cubs had enough faith in their up-and-coming young team to go for it after a lengthy rebuild.  If the Jays are serious about challenging for the postseason as soon as 2020, more substantial veteran upgrades could be made to center field, the bullpen, the first base/DH mix beyond Shaw and Rowdy Tellez, or even the rotation.  Closer Ken Giles was widely assumed to be a trade candidate, but now the Blue Jays could perhaps keep Giles for the final year of his contract in order to keep the ninth inning locked down.

The Jays’ current 2020 payroll (as per Roster Resource) projects to be just under $122.2MM, so considering that the 2016-18 clubs all finished the season with payrolls in the $164MM-$167MM range, GM Ross Atkins could have more spending room for further moves.  Ryu is the third-highest contract even given out by the franchise, topped only by Vernon Wells’ $126MM extension in the 2006-07 offseason and the five-year, $82MM free agent deal for Russell Martin prior to the 2015 season.

Ryu is the latest arm to leave what has been a scorching hot market for free agent starting pitchers.  Returning to MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, Alex Wood (at #39) is now the highest-ranked starter still on the board, as the 14 pitchers ahead of him have all found new deals before Christmas.  As Heyman notes on Twitter, the many teams still looking for rotation upgrades could now be forced to explore the trade market, which could lead to a flurry of deals before Opening Day.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first reported the deal (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reported that Ryu would receive a partial no-trade clause. The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chsholm reported the annual breakdown.

Latest On Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Market

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There has been widespread interest in left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has become even more of a prized commodity since he is now the only starting pitcher remaining within the top 38 players on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.  The current field of suitors appears to consist of seven teams, as listed by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), give or take one unconfirmed team and, of course, the ever-popular “mystery team.”

Heyman’s list includes several teams who have been already linked to Ryu at earlier points this winter — the Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, and Twins.  The “mystery team” could be the Braves (who are known to some level of interest in Ryu, though perhaps only peripherally), Heyman guessed, though he doesn’t mention the Cardinals, who were said to be considering Ryu two weeks ago.  Since that report, however, St. Louis added another pitcher in Korean southpaw Kwang-Hyun Kim, who came at a much lower price tag than Ryu (though, obviously, without the MLB track record).  With Kim in the fold, it could be that the Cards feel their rotation mix is set, and Ryu is no longer a target.

The other teams mentioned in Ryu’s market are two new faces, as Heyman writes that the Padres and “possibly [the] Phillies” could have interest.  While the two clubs have yet to be connected to Ryu this offseason, it isn’t surprising that either San Diego or Philadelphia would be looking in, given how both teams have been looking to upgrade their respective rotations.

The Phils already made one big splash in signing Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract.  However, Wheeler is only one addition to a pitching staff that generated 7.6 total fWAR (23rd in the majors) in 2019.  Wheeler and Aaron Nola are a good top-of-the-rotation pairing, though the remaining options of Jake Arrieta and two of the Zach Eflin/Vince Velasquez/Nick Pivetta trio aren’t terribly inspiring, given how these arms all struggled last season.  Ryu would be a nice addition to any staff, but he would especially help the Phillies keep pace with the other loaded rotations in the NL East.

Since the Phillies already have a projected payroll (just under $205.4MM, as per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource) that sits just barely under the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, however, it remains to be seen if the club is willing to surpass the threshold for another star player like Ryu.  Philadelphia was reportedly looking to be more “opportunistic” with their future signings to avoid the tax, though the team could take the one-year hit while staying in the first level of tax penalties, which is a CBT number of less than $228MM.  Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, and David Robertson all come off the books after the 2020 season, so the Phillies could duck back under the tax threshold after just one year.

The CBT isn’t a concern for the Padres, though payroll itself is an issue, as the club has reportedly been trying to deal Wil Myers’ contract for weeks.  Despite having some level of financial limitation in place, San Diego has been looking for frontline pitching for over a year, mostly on the trade front given how the Padres have so many strong minor leaguers to offer as trade chips.  The Padres have also explored free agent signings, and Ryu is clearly a known quantity after facing him for so many years in a Dodgers uniform.  Adding an experienced veteran like Ryu to the young staff could make the Padres more open to move other younger arms (if not the trio of Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, or Luis Patino) as part of future trades to bring salary relief, perhaps attached to Myers as sweeteners in a deal.

NL East Notes: Bumgarner, Ryu, Cespedes, Nationals, Phillies

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The Braves weren’t willing to go beyond a three-year contract for Madison Bumgarner, and “it seems highly doubtful” they would go to four years for Hyun-Jin Ryu, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes.  Atlanta’s interest in Ryu is something of a new development, but Bowman feels it could be more due diligence on the Braves’ part than anything else, in case Ryu’s market shifts within the two- to three-year range.  Multiple teams have been linked to Ryu this offseason, though it remains unclear whether any club will be willing to stretch to four years for a hurler who will be 33 years old on Opening Day and possesses a lengthy injury history.

The latest from around the NL East…

  • Could Yoenis Cespedes be a trade chip?  A deal seems unlikely, but MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that the Mets have received some trade interest in the outfielder in the wake of last week’s news that Cespedes’ salary has been reduced to less than $10MM, though with significant incentives that could make it worth $20MM (assuming Cespedes gets on the field at all in 2020, of course).  Cespedes has a full no-trade clause, though DiComo speculates that Cespedes might welcome a change of scenery to a team that could offer him DH at-bats, or just to get away from “a team that successfully filed a grievance against him.”  It could be that rival teams are open to absorbing Cespedes’ contract as a method of acquiring some younger talent from New York, similar to how the Giants recently took Zack Cozart’s salary off the Angels’ hands in order to land shortstop prospect Will Wilson, or how the Mets themselves are trying to attach a younger player to Jeurys Familia or Jed Lowrie in a trade.
  • The Nationals’ fifth starter competition is examined by Sam Fortier of the Washington Post, who reports that Erick Fedde has a minor league option remaining.  This might not bode well for Fedde’s chances, as the Nats could send him down to Triple-A in favor of Austin Voth or Joe Ross, who are both out of options.  That’s assuming, of course, that D.C. ends up going forward with one of these three in-house arms as the fifth starter.  Fortier notes that the team was seemingly satisfied with this same trio last winter before signing Jeremy Hellickson prior to Spring Training, so it isn’t out of the question that the World Series champs could pursue another low-cost veteran before the offseason is out.
  • We haven’t heard much about David Phelps about this offseason, but Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer feels the right-hander would be a good (and relatively inexpensive) addition to the Phillies bullpen.  After missing all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, Phelps had a solid comeback year in 2019, posting a 3.41 ERA, 2.12 K/BB rate, and 9.4 K/9 over 34 1/3 innings for the Cubs and Blue Jays.  Phelps pitched under Phils manager Joe Girardi with the Yankees in 2012-14, and when asked about the reliever at the Winter Meetings, Girardi praised Phelps’ versatility, game preparation skills, and good numbers against both right-handed and left-handed batters.

Angels Notes: Payroll, Ryu, Keuchel, Ohtani

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Let’s check in on the Halos, who made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason last week with the signing of superstar third baseman Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract…

  • The Angels made their send notable rotation pickup of the offseason Thursday, agreeing to sign right-hander Julio Teheran to a one-year, $9MM guarantee. Teheran and the previously acquired Dylan Bundy should help improve the Angels’ starting staff in 2020, but the team still hasn’t added a much-needed front-line hurler this offseason. But now that Teheran, Bundy and Rendon are in the fold, does the club have the financial flexibility to reel in yet another rotation upgrade? Perhaps. As Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group observes, the Angels currently have an actual payroll around $170MM and a luxury-tax outlay in the $181MM range – $27MM below the threshold. The former figure would be a franchise-record amount for the Angels, though owner Arte Moreno has indicated the team’s payroll would rise in 2020. It’s just unclear what his limit is.
  • Signing either lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu or fellow southpaw Dallas Keuchel would put yet another significant dent in the Angels’ payroll. No matter, the team appears to be in on both hurlers. The Angels and agent Scott Boras (who also represents Rendon) have had “multiple conversations” about Ryu and Keuchel, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times writes. However, Torres notes that a deal with the Angels isn’t imminent for either pitcher. Ryu (three years, $54MM) and Keuchel (three/39) are MLBTR’s highest-rated remaining pitchers in terms of potential earning power.
  • Regardless of how many moves the Angels make this winter, there may not be a more important development in 2020 than getting two-way star Shohei Ohtani back to full health. The right-hander/designated hitter was unable to pitch at all last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2018. Fortunately, though, the 25-year-old Ohtani has fully recovered from that serious procedure, Fletcher relays (Twitter links). Looking ahead to 2020, Ohtani only figures to pitch once a week, which aligns with the schedule he grew accustomed to in Japan before immigrating to the United States.

Pitching Notes: Ryu, Keuchel, Ray, King Felix

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Hyun-Jin Ryu is very arguably the top starter remaining on the free-agent market, though his injury history is a clear red flag despite the southpaw’s dominant showing over the past couple of seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this week that Ryu was “expected” to top four years and $80MM on his next contract, but on this morning’s appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show (video link), Rosenthal indicated that multiple teams have since told him they were immediately skeptical of that price point: “I heard from a couple of clubs yesterday that said ’That’s not going to happen — not with that medical history.'”

Certainly, that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a four-year pact for Ryu, but the pushback serves to underscore what makes Ryu such a polarizing free agent. The 32-year-old (33 in March) has a 2.21 ERA over his past 265 innings and a 2.71 ERA in 391 2/3 innings dating back to 2017. On a per-inning basis, he’s among the market’s elite options, but Ryu’s age and injury history likely have some teams steering clear of him on any type of notable multi-year arrangement. It only takes one team to push to four years, but to this point, his realistic price tag is hard to pin down.

More on Ryu and the rest of the pitching market…

  • Ryu’s agent Scott Boras, who also represents lefty Dallas Keuchel, chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand about the two free-agent southpaws and (unsurprisingly) offered optimism that a deal could come together in the near future. “Clubs are identifying their needs, and we’re certainly narrowing the corridor of finality,” Boras said with characteristic idiosyncrasy. “It could happen soon.” Meanwhile, Bruce Levine of 670AM The Score/CBS Chicago writes that the White Sox are interested in both Boras lefties, also implying that the team might find it preferable to add a free-agent of that ilk rather than for a one-year rental (e.g. Robbie Ray). The ChiSox are still hopeful of reeling in a rotation upgrade but are wary of surrendering notable young talent for a one-year upgrade.
  • The Diamondbacks’ decision to sign Madison Bumgarner wasn’t made as a precursor to a Robbie Ray trade, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Of course, it wouldn’t behoove any general manager to proclaim otherwise, and as Piecoro observes, nothing in Hazen’s comments expressly rules out the possibility of trading Ray, who’ll be a free agent next winter. Arizona moved Paul Goldschmidt under similar circumstances, when he had a year of control remaining and was set to be their second-highest-paid player. (Ray will actually be Arizona’s highest-paid player, given the backloaded nature of Bumgarner’s deal.) The strong demand for pitching and dwindling supply in free agency should make Ray a popular target and could position the D-backs to again pick up a controllable piece or two that’s near the big league level, as was the case in recent trades of Goldschmidt (Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly) and Zack Greinke (Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Josh Rojas).
  • Former Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has already made clear he won’t be hanging up his spikes. He’s “receiving interest” from teams, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter, although the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Hernandez may be a former Cy Young winner who sat atop the hierarchy of baseball’s very best pitchers from 2009-14, but his decline into a back-of-the-rotation arm and, more recently, a liability on the mound was rather swift. Over the past two seasons, Hernandez has limped to a dismal 5.82 ERA / 5.44 FIP in 227 1/3 innings. The scintillating heater that averaged nearly 96 mph and scraped triple digits when he debuted as a babyfaced 19-year-old in 2005 has faded to an 89.5 mph average dating back to Opening Day 2018. A pitcher with Hernandez’s preternatural talent shouldn’t be totally counted out, particularly given that he won’t even turn 34 until April, but he’s purely a rebound candidate at this point.

AL East Notes: Jays’ Rotation, Orioles, Rays

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While the Blue Jays weren’t known to be in pursuit of either Madison Bumgarner or Corey Kluber, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet explores how Bumgarner’s deal with Arizona and Kluber’s trade to Texas nevertheless impact Toronto’s search for rotation help. The Dodgers and Angels missed out on both pitchers, leaving both Southern California clubs with an even shorter supply of potential upgrades to ponder. Given the Jays’ interest in Hyun-Jin Ryu, that’s not great news, as both L.A. clubs could now look more aggressively at Ryu. (The same could also be true of the Twins, who also pursued Bumgarner to no avail.) The Blue Jays entered the winter determined to improve their rotation, and while the additions of Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson undeniably help, options that align with GM Ross Atkins’ stated desire for “significant” upgrades are beginning to dwindle.

More from the division…

  • Orioles skipper Brandon Hyde tells Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com that catcher Pedro Severino is going to “get a lot of innings behind home plate and get a lot of at-bats next year.” Hyde stopped short of firmly declaring Severino the starter over former top prospect Chance Sisco and defensive-minded Austin Wynns, but the 26-year-old Severino was clearly Baltimore’s best option in 2019, when he slashed .249/.321/.420 in 341 plate appearances. Unlike Sisco and Wynns, he’s also out of minor league options, which should afford him a lengthier leash in the event of some early struggles. Kubatko notes that the O’s are still in the market for some catching depth, although one would imagine that with three backstops already on the 40-man roster, that could simply be a minor league pact for a veteran receiver.
  • After adding Yoshitomo Tsutsugo on a two-year deal, the Rays are still considering countryman Shogo Akiyama as a potential addition, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Akiyama would add another center field option to the fold and likely bring some on-base skills to the table, although he’s also a left-handed hitter and Topkin spends some time focusing on the Rays’ desire to add a right-handed bat to the roster as well. Specifically, the Rays hope to add a right-handed hitter with some defensive versatility — hence the earlier interest in Howie Kendrick — but such options are rather rare in this winter’s free-agent market. Of course, plenty of options could manifest on the trade market; speculatively speaking, the Rays seem like a fine fit for switch-hitting Tigers super utilityman Niko Goodrum.

Free Agent Rumors: Ryu, Ozuna, Cards, Twins, Rays, Kendrick

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A slew of high-profile free agents have fared better than expected on the open market this winter, which has been the quickest-paced offseason we’ve seen in a while. Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, no doubt the most appealing unsigned starter remaining, could soon ink his own richer-than-anticipated contract. While MLBTR predicted a three-year, $54MM deal for Ryu when the offseason began, there’s now a belief across the industry that he’ll get at minimum a four-year pact worth better than $17MM per annum, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. On at least an annual basis, that type of accord would beat out the five-year, $85MM payday the Diamondbacks handed fellow lefty Madison Bumgarner on Sunday. Age (33 in March) and an extensive injury history could work against Ryu’s bid to cash in, but at the same time, there is no question he was one of the majors’ premier starters in 2019. The longtime Dodger fired 182 2/3 innings of 2.32 ERA/3.10 FIP ball with 8.03 K/9, 1.18 BB/9 and a 50.4 percent groundball rate. Ryu rode those numbers to a second-place finish the NL Cy Young balloting, and they could help him to a rich contract in the coming weeks.

  • Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated last week the team was still trying to re-sign outfielder Marcell Ozuna. That continues to be the case, according to The Athletic’s Mark Saxon, who tweets that St. Louis remains “engaged in trying to” re-up its most prominent free agent. However, it appears “unlikely” the Cardinals will succeed, Saxon observes. Ozuna’s coming off a pair of productive seasons as a Cardinal, which could aid him in securing a lucrative three- or four-year contract in St. Louis or elsewhere.
  • The Twins are interested in Japanese righty Shun Yamaguchi, per Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. Teams have until Jan. 2 to negotiate with Yamaguchi, whom the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball posted Dec. 3. Yamaguchi was a starter and a reliever in Japan, so it’s unclear how the Twins will use the 32-year-old if they do sign him. It’s worth noting that even after retaining Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda in recent weeks, the reigning AL Central champions appear to have holes in their rotation.
  • Earlier this offseason, playoff hero Howie Kendrick chose to re-sign with the Nationals on a one-year, $6.25MM guarantee. But it turns out the Rays, once the reported front-runners to sign Kendrick, actually outbid the Nationals. They offered the 36-year-old infielder more money and term than Washington gave him, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Kendrick could have been part of the first base/designated hitter mix for the Rays, who just added a potential solution for at least one of those spots in Japanese free agent Yoshitomo Tsutsugo.

MLBTR Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract

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The top tier of the free agent pitching market has been shorn away. Gerrit Cole ($324MM), Stephen Strasburg ($245MM), and Zack Wheeler ($118MM) all handily outpaced our guarantee projections from earlier this offseason, leaving an open question: what about the best of the rest? With Jake Odorizzi and Cole Hamels accepting a qualifying offer and an early deal, respectively, the market’s current top starters are likely Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel.

We’ve already heard that Bumgarner is looking to shoot over the $100MM threshold, and one team has reportedly provided him with a $70MM floor. Keuchel, solid pitcher though he is, comes back to the open market on the heels of a prorated Atlanta season that saw him pitch to a 4.72 FIP–the $39MM projection we tagged him with back in November still feels like a reasonable ballpark. But where do recent developments leave Ryu?

Simply scanning reader comments on any Ryu-related article this offseason would lend you a pretty solid sense of the wide range of opinions surrounding Ryu’s left arm. There’s no question that arm is effective–you don’t pitch to a career 2.98 ERA or sub-2.00 career BB/9 rate without a surgical level of skill. There’s also no question the former KBO standout is hitting the market at the right time. If Cole can parlay a second-place Cy Young finish into a record-setting free agent payday, what prize should remain for the award’s NL runner-up?

The answer to that question will likely hinge upon how risk-averse front offices will feel as they survey the market’s remaining options. Few pitchers hit free agency free of some historical health concerns (Strasburg and Wheeler included); at the same time, Ryu has hardly been a picture of durability to this point in his major league career. Since coming to L.A. in advance of the 2013 season, Ryu has made 125 starts in seven seasons–an average of 17.8 starts per year. Then again, maybe that’s not a fair depiction: it may be more accurate to simply say that shoulder and elbow surgeries limited him to one appearance from 2015-2016, while he was likewise limited to just 15 starts in 2018.

But for teams looking for premium performance, the 32-year-old Ryu has a clear leg up on just about anyone currently available. He’s logged two consecutive seasons in the top five percent of pitchers in terms of walk rate and he induces ground balls at a very healthy clip. According to Statcast, he’s almost unmatched when it comes to limiting hard contact: hitters managed just an 85.3 mean exit velocity against Ryu’s five-pitch arsenal last year, a mark that ranked in the game’s top four percent. He just won the ERA title, after a 2018 campaign that saw him post a 1.97 earned run average in 15 starts. You get the picture–Ryu is very good at pitching, when healthy.

In advance of the 2017 season, the Dodgers signed lefty Rich Hill to a three-year, $48MM deal. To that point, Hill had twice exceeded the 100-inning threshold at the major league level in a 12-year career. He was set to turn 37 the following spring. To boot, that deal took place three years ago and in advance of several record-setting contracts for open-market pitching. The question is: what does a high-performing, oft-ailing pitcher deserve three years on from when Hill secured $48MM in guarantees? We predicted three years and $54MM for Ryu at the winter’s outset, but, in the wake of this offseason’s events (and considering the Wheeler deal, especially) there seems to be a fair argument that his horizons have expanded. The Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Cardinals have all been specifically linked to him in recent weeks.

We put it to you: which team is best positioned to take a chance on him, and what kind of contract does he figure to receive?

Where will Ryu sign? (Poll link for app users)

How long will the contract be? (Poll link for app users)

What will the total guarantee be? (Poll link for app users)

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