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Royals Re-Sign Zack Greinke

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FEBRUARY 6: Heyman today provided more specifics of the incentives on Twitter. Greinke will get that $8.5MM guarantee, then $450K for getting to 90 innings pitched and every five innings thereafter up until 135. At 140 innings pitched, he gets a further $300K and keeps adding that amount at each five-inning interval until 185.

FEBRUARY 3: The Royals officially announced Greinke’s new deal.  According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link), Greinke will earn $8.5MM in guaranteed money, with up to $7.5MM more available in incentives.

JANUARY 30: The Royals have reached agreement on a one-year contract to bring back veteran starter Zack Greinke, according to Bob Fescoe of 610 Sports Radio in Kansas City. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that the deal will be worth $8-10MM in base salary, plus performance-based bonuses. Greinke is a client of Excel Sports Management.

Greinke began his professional career with the Royals way back in 2002 as the No. 6 overall pick in that year’s MLB Draft. He made his big league debut in KC in 2004 and spent his first seven seasons there, highlighted by an AL Cy Young Award win in 2009. Following successful stints with the Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros between 2011-2021, the eccentric right-hander returned to his old stomping grounds in 2022 and worked to a 3.68 ERA in 26 starts covering 137 innings.

His paltry 4.8 K/9 last year was a career-low and ranked as the worst K/9 of all 90 major league pitchers who logged at least 130 innings over the course of the 2022 regular season. But the 39-year-old showed terrific control (1.8 BB/9) and was generally able to induce more soft contact than hard contact to help pave over his diminished swing-and-miss stuff. Among the 585 total batters he faced during the 2022 campaign, Greinke surrendered only 14 home runs. That worked out to a 0.92 HR/9, putting him right around rising studs like Nestor Cortes, Logan Gilbert, Ranger Suarez and George Kirby.

Greinke can hopefully again serve as an innings-eater and clubhouse mentor for a Royals rotation that has undergone a few offseason changes but will still be relying on a lot of youth pushing forward. Brady Singer, 26, stands out as somebody who made significant gains in 2022, perhaps thanks in part to Greinke’s tutelage. Brad Keller, 27, and Daniel Lynch, 27, could use a similar type of molding.

Greinke figures to be named the Opening Day starter for the Royals in 2023, as he was last year. Singer and Keller project to fall in somewhere behind him, along with newcomers Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough. Kansas City finished 27th among all 30 teams in combined starter ERA (4.76) in 2022, despite Greinke’s contributions and Singer’s mini-breakout. KC’s combined starter K/9 of 6.9 ranked 28th.

Royals Looking Into Extensions For Young Players

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At the Royals’ fanfest event today, general manager J.J. Picollo told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that the team is considering extensions for its core of young players.  Any deals may not be particularly close and it isn’t known how far any talks have progressed, but Picollo didn’t put a specific timeline on negotiations, saying the Royals would explore the topic throughout the year.

“It is something that we’ve discussed,” Picollo said.  “We’ve studied other extensions signed, and when they get to certain years of service, now you get better comps of, this is what it should look like.  Hopefully, the partner on the other end feels the same way.”

As Rogers notes, such players as Bobby Witt, Brady Singer, and Vinnie Pasquantino fit the model of young extension candidates the Royals would certainly have interest in locking in as key parts of their future.  MJ Melendez, Drew Waters, or Michael Massey could conceivably also be on the radar for long-term deals, and it’s safe to assume that pitchers like Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, or Jackson Kowar won’t be considered until they show more at the Major League level.

Naturally, it isn’t any surprise that Kansas City (or any team) has interest in extending promising youngsters.  Once offseason business is complete, most clubs turn their attention to discussing longer-term contracts with in-house players, which is why so many extensions are commonly announced in the period from roughly mid-March to mid-April.

For a lower-payroll team like the Royals, there is both added value and added risk in extending their stars of the future.  If these youngsters do end up living up to their potential, early-career extensions can end up being huge bargains for the team, saving the Royals millions in arbitration costs and free agent dollars.  On the flip side, if the players don’t deliver at the MLB level, then an extension can become an albatross on the somewhat limited Kansas City payroll.

Owner John Sherman also addressed reporters on the topic of extensions, saying that he’ll be at the Royals’ Spring Training camp to talk extensions with the team’s front office (and, presumably, any agents should negotiations develop at a serious pace).  “I’d love to know we’ll have some of these guys beyond their arbitration years.  It becomes very valuable, because you have cost certainty,” Sherman said.  “Plus, if you’re going to lose them in five years, you’ve got to think about, how do you get a return on a really talented guy in their fourth or fifth year?”

There hasn’t been any real spending increase since Sherman officially took ownership of the Royals in late 2019, though naturally both the pandemic and the Royals’ ongoing rebuild impacted the club’s investment in its Major League roster.  This has also been an offseason of change for the franchise, with Picollo taking over baseball operations from Dayton Moore in September and Matt Quatraro hired as the Royals’ new manager.

With all this in mind, Kansas City’s past history of extensions may not be fully instructive in trying to predict how the Royals may head into this next wave of contract talks, as Picollo and Sherman could have a different approach than Moore and previous owner David Glass.  Since Witt, Pasquantino, Melendez, and Massey all just made their big league debuts in 2022, it represents some difference just in exploring extensions with such inexperienced players, though Moore was no stranger to this tactic — such players as Joakim Soria, Yordano Ventura, and Salvador Perez all had less than two seasons of MLB service time when they signed extensions during Moore’s tenure.

Singer has the most experience of the Royals’ younger core, and since he and the Royals are currently scheduled for an arbitration hearing, it stands to reason that the club might have already floated the idea of an extension to Singer and his reps at Excel Sports Management.  With the exception of a minor sophomore slump in 2021, Singer has been solid to excellent throughout his three Major League seasons, highlighted by a 3.23 ERA over 153 1/3 innings last season.

Singer is aiming for a $3.325MM salary for 2023, while K.C. countered with a $2.95MM figure.  Since Singer gained Super Two qualification, this will be the first of four trips through the arbitration process for the right-hander, so this upcoming hearing has added importance in establishing the starting point for Singer’s future salaries.  The Super Two status also adds even more incentive for the Royals to work out an extension with Singer, in order to gain some cost certainty over what could quickly become a large price tag if Singer keeps producing front-of-the-rotation numbers.

Between Singer’s performance, arbitration status, and the rising cost of pitching, Kansas City will have to pay handsomely in any extension.  However, the price tag will still likely be lower than the cost of extending Witt, even though has only completed one Major League season.  The 22-year-old hit .254/.294/.428 with 20 homers and 30 steals (in 37 chances) over 632 plate appearances, amassing 2.3 fWAR and finishing fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting.  While the defensive metrics didn’t like Witt’s performance at either shortstop or third base last season, the Royals will deploy Witt as their regular shortstop in 2023, and Picollo feels settling in at a single position will improve Witt’s glovework.

Witt entered his rookie season as one of baseball’s top prospects, and has been projected for superstar potential even before the Royals selected him second overall in the 2019 draft.  Perez’s four-year, $81MM extension from the 2020-21 offseason is the priciest contract in Royals club history, but it isn’t a reach to say that a Witt extension would far surpass that deal, and possibly resemble Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182MM extension with the Rays.

Royals Designate Anthony Misiewicz For Assignment

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The Royals announced that left-hander Anthony Misiewicz has been designated for assignment.  The move creates roster space for Zack Greinke, whose one-year deal with Kansas City was officially announced today.

A veteran of three MLB seasons, Misiewicz was acquired from the Mariners in a pre-deadline trade last August, after Seattle had also DFA’ed the southpaw.  Misiewicz posted a 4.61 ERA and only a 14% strikeout rate over 13 2/3 frames with the Mariners last year, but at least got on track on the strikeout front by delivering a 4.11 ERA and 29.7 K% in his first 15 1/3 innings in Kansas City.

It was a promising return to form for Misiewicz, who had a 4.05 ERA and 30.1% strikeout rate over 20 innings in his 2020 rookie season with the Mariners, but both his ERA (4.61) and his ability to miss bats both declined during 54 2/3 frames of work in 2021.  Misiewicz posted respectable but not eye-opening strikeout totals during his minor league career, though naturally some uptick in K’s was to be expected after he moved to relief pitching.  The left-hander was almost exclusively a starter from 2015-19, but shifted into a full-time bullpen role upon making his debut in the big leagues.

Misiewicz isn’t a particularly hard thrower for a relief pitcher, though he does have some good spin on his pitches, particularly his curveball.  Between this skillset, his decent numbers at the MLB level, and the general need for left-handed pitching around the sport, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see another club pluck Misiewicz off the DFA wire.  Misiewicz is also controllable through the 2026 season, providing another benefit for any interested teams.  The Royals have Amir Garrett and new acquisitions Aroldis Chapman and Josh Taylor all lined up as the top left-handed options in their bullpen, so while Misiewicz became expendable from the team’s perspective, K.C. would probably prefer that he sneaks through the waiver wire so he can be retained as minor league depth.

Royals, Ryan Goins Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Royals are bringing veteran infielder Ryan Goins back to the organization on a minor league contract, per the transaction log at MLB.com. Goins, an Octagon client, spent the 2018 season with Kansas City as well.

Goins hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since the truncated 2020 season, when he logged 14 games with the White Sox. He tallied only 10 plate appearances in that time, however, and went hitless in that small sample. He’s spent the past two seasons with the Braves organization, playing a combined 181 games for their Triple-A affiliate. Atlanta actually selected him to the Major League roster this past August but designated him for assignment and sent him outright back to Gwinnett before he ever got into a big league game.

The 34-year-old Goins didn’t hit much during his time with the Braves’ top affiliate, but that’s par for the course in his case. He’s long been a glove-first player, offering above-average defense all around the infield — but particularly at second base. In parts of eight Triple-A seasons, Goins is a .261/.319/.363 hitter, but he carries a lifetime .229/.278/.333 batting line in 1690 plate appearances as a big leaguer. The bulk of that experience came with the Blue Jays from 2013-17, but Goins has also spent time with the Royals (2018) and White Sox (2019-20).

Kansas City’s infield mix figures to give plenty of opportunity to younger players in 2023. Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto are expected to share time at first base and designated hitter, while young Michael Massey has an inside track on the primary job at second base. Bobby Witt Jr. should slot in as the team’s shortstop, though he spent plenty of time at third base in his rookie season in deference to defensive standout Nicky Lopez. The 27-year-old Lopez could log regular reps at shortstop or bounce around in utility fashion. He’s also drawn trade interest from the White Sox (and presumably other clubs). Hunter Dozier remains on hand as an option at either corner infield or corner outfield spot, while utilityman Nate Eaton could see action all over the infield and outfield.

Goins joins fellow veterans Johan Camargo and Matt Duffy as experienced infielders who Kansas City has signed to non-guaranteed deals in an effort to bolster the organizational infield depth. The Royals will surely want to get their young players as many looks as possible, but injuries are inevitable and Goins gives them a strong defensive veteran who can cover multiple spots should the need arise.

Royals Sign Aroldis Chapman To One-Year Deal

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The Royals announced Friday they’ve signed left-hander Aroldis Chapman to a one-year deal. The lefty will reportedly make a base salary of $3.75MM but could earn an extra $4MM in performance bonuses. Chapman is a Wasserman client.

Chapman, 35 in February, spent over a decade as one of the most feared closers in baseball but has slipped from those heights in the past couple of years. From 2010 to 2020, he made 563 appearances with the Reds, Cubs and Yankees, posting a 2.25 ERA while racking up 276 saves. His 11.5% walk rate in that time was certainly on the high side, but he paired that with an incredible 41.2% strikeout rate. Only Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen had more saves in that time and only Josh Hader bested him in terms of strikeout rate, minimum 100 innings pitched, though Hader didn’t debut until 2017 and did that over a much smaller sample.

In 2021, however, Chapman’s already shaky command seemed to get even worse, as he walked 15.6% of batters who came to the plate. He still posted a huge 39.9% strikeout rate but his 3.36 ERA was his highest in a season since 2011. Things got even worse last year as his walk rate jumped to 17.5% and he only struck out 26.9% of batters faced. That latter number was still above average but a huge drop from his previous form. When combined with the control issues, his ERA jumped to 4.46. His fastball, which used to average in the triple digits, dropped to an average of “just” 97.5 mph.

The issues with Chapman weren’t limited to his on-field performance either. He had already drawn the disapproval of many people in the baseball world years ago when a domestic violence allegation led to a 30-game suspension. More recently, he also drew the ire of many Yankee fans by missing time due to an infection from a tattoo. He then skipped a team workout between the regular season and postseason, leading the club to leave him off their playoff roster.

Despite the off-field issues and diminished performance, Chapman still drew interest from a few clubs around the league, including the Padres and Marlins. The Fish even held a private workout with him, with video shared by Alvarez on Twitter. However, they apparently didn’t make him an offer, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald and Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase.

Instead, it will be the Royals who take a chance on Chapman and hope for a return to form. This fits in with similar moves the club has made in recent years, giving deals to veteran hurlers in an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle. They signed Trevor Rosenthal and Greg Holland going into 2020 and then Wade Davis the year after.

The Royals have a young roster overall and the bullpen is no exception. Chapman is now the only player with more than six years of MLB service time, while Amir Garrett and Scott Barlow are the only others with more than four. The new addition gives them a veteran but, perhaps more importantly, a midseason trade candidate. The Royals won just 65 games last year and finished in the bottom of the American League Central. If they endure a similarly frustrating campaign this year but Chapman is in good form, he’ll like be flipped this summer for prospects. Chapman and Garrett give the club at least a pair of lefties in the bullpen, with Richard Lovelady and Anthony Misiewicz also on hand to further stretch the club’s southpaw contingent.

Financially, this deal brings the club’s expenditures to $89MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. That’s still shy of the $95MM figure the club had an Opening Day last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and well shy of their $143MM record high. They could use some upgrades elsewhere on the roster but might not spend much more, with general manager J.J. Picollo explaining in November that the budget might be tight this winter.

Alfre Alvarez of Con Las Bases Llenas first reported that a deal was close and also added the $4MM value for the bonuses (Twitter links). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported that an agreement was in place and also first had the $3.75MM base salary (Twitter links).

Royals Sign Matt Duffy To Minor League Deal

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The Royals signed veteran infielder Matt Duffy to a minor league contract Friday, per a team announcement. The TWC Sports client will be invited to Major League Spring Training and compete for a roster spot.

Duffy, 32, spent the 2022 season with the Angels, where he played three different spots around the infield and posted a combined .250/.308/.311 batting line in 247 plate appearances. Duffy held a similar role with the Cubs in 2021 when he batted .287/.357/.381 and played all four infield positions in addition to left field.

Once the starting third baseman for the Giants and a key piece in the trade that sent Matt Moore from Tampa Bay to San Francisco, Duffy’s career has been severely hampered by injuries. An ailing Achilles tendon in 2016 eventually required surgical repair. That, paired with a separate procedure to remove bone spurs from his heel, cost him the entire 2017 season. Duffy returned to play in 132 games with the 2018 Rays, but a hamstring injury cost him the first four months of the 2019 season and ultimately held him to 46 games.

Duffy doesn’t have much power, but he tends to have a low strikeout rate and is capable of playing all over the infield with passable or better defense (generally plus defense at the hot corner). He’ll give the Royals the type of contact-oriented profile that is so often a hallmark of their roster, and he provides some insurance at second base, third base or shortstop in the event of injuries or a trade.

Kansas City has reportedly drawn trade interest in Nicky Lopez — including from the division-rival White Sox — and their top option at third base is Hunter Dozier, whose contract team would surely prefer to move, if at all possible. Twenty-four-year-old Michael Massey is expected to have the opportunity to win the second base job, but Duffy provides a veteran alternative if Massey struggles this spring.

Who Else Could The Royals Trade?

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It’s been a quiet offseason for the Royals on the whole, but they’ve taken up a prominent position on the trade market in the past few days, shipping center fielder Michael A. Taylor to the division-rival Twins in exchange for relief prospects Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz, and flipping infielder Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox in exchange for reliever Josh Taylor the following day.

Those might not be the only trades in store for general manager J.J. Picollo in his first offseason atop the team’s baseball operations hierarchy. The Royals have reportedly discussed infielder Nicky Lopez with the White Sox in what would be a second intra-division swap. More broadly, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that Kansas City still had “a couple more deals” that they’re in the process of “lining up.” With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at some of the names the Royals could potentially ship out in the days and weeks leading up to spring training.

First and foremost, it should be pointed out that both Taylor and Mondesi were a year away from reaching the open market. They represented short-term assets for a Royals team that knows itself to be, at best, a long shot to contend in 2023. Lopez is more of of a mid-range player in terms of remaining club control, as he’s arbitration-eligible through the 2025 season. Presumably, the Royals won’t want to surrender much more team control than that. Players like Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto are all controllable through at least the 2028 season; it’s unlikely the Royals would give much consideration to moving anyone from that group.

Onto some more plausible names, beginning with the focus of yesterday’s White Sox rumors…

Nicky Lopez, 2B/SS | Age: 27 (28 in March) | Contract: Signed for $3.7MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Lopez has been an all-glove player outside a 2021 season that currently looks anomalous in nature. He posted a .300/.365/.378 batting line in 565 plate appearances that season but did so with a .347 batting average on balls in play that’s 53 points higher than his career mark of .294. Lopez is a career .252/.309/.321 hitter in more than 1600 plate appearances. To say he doesn’t hit the ball hard would be an understatement; Lopez ranked 246th of 252 qualified hitters with an 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 250th with a 22.9% hard-hit rate. Statcast ranked him in the third percentile of MLB hitters in terms of “expected” slugging percentage.

That’s not a ringing endorsement of Lopez by any stretch, but he has plenty of positive attributes: namely his bat-to-ball skills and prodigious defensive prowess. Lopez fanned in just 13.1% of his plate appearances in each of the past two seasons, exhibiting strong contact skills. He doesn’t take especially lengthy at-bats (average 3.66 pitcher per plate appearance, compared to the league-average 3.9), but Lopez puts the ball in play and runs fairly well, ranking in the 58th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast.

Defensively, there are few better players in the game — at least in the estimation of Statcast. He’s been an above-average but not elite defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average credits Lopez with excellent marks at second base (12) and particularly at shortstop (31) in his career. The sure-handed Lopez has made just 20 errors as a big leaguer and shown aptitude at both middle infield slots as well as in briefer sessions at the hot corner.

With three more years of club control remaining, there’s no urgency to trade Lopez. However, the Royals have Witt at shortstop and want to give 24-year-old Michael Massey a chance to claim the second base job.

Scott Barlow, RHP | Age: 30 | Contract: Signed for $5.3MM, arb-eligible through 2024

Likely the most popular potential trade chip on the Royals, Barlow has stepped up as the team’s closer and solidified himself as a quality late-game option in Kansas City. He’s pitched matching totals of 74 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, logging a combined 2.30 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, 43.3% grounder rate, 0.79 HR/9 mark and 40 saves.

Over the past two seasons, Barlow is tied for 22nd among 138 qualified relievers with a 15% swinging-strike rate. His 36.9% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ties him for 15th in that same set of hurlers. Barlow has also excelled at hitting spots and freezing batters (18.1% called-strike rate), and his combined 33.1% called strike-plus-whiff rate is eighth among MLB relievers since 2021. He limits hard contact extremely well (86.4 mph average exit velocity, 30.3% hard-hit rate in 2022), has plus spin on his heater and generates plus extension with his delivery, per Statcast.

It’s not all roses with Barlow, however. He saw his average fastball dip from 95.3 mph in 2021 to 93.7 mph in 2022. In conjunction, both his strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate saw notable drops. This past season’s 1.09 HR/9 mark was the worst he’s posted in a full season, and (likely because of the drop in strikeouts) Barlow needed a charitable .240 average on balls in play to get to his sparkling 2.18 ERA; that’s 75 points lower than his 2021 mark and 84 points lower than the career mark he carried into 2022. It’s not likely to be repeated, so if the velocity and strikeouts remain at their 2022 levels, Barlow’s ERA is going to be in for quite a bit of regression.

Even with some modest red flags in 2022, Barlow remains a quality reliever who can be controlled at a relatively affordable rate for the next two seasons. If he were a free agent this winter, he’d surely have commanded a good bit more than the $12-14MM or so he’ll command in his final two arbitration seasons. There’s surplus value here, and if the Royals are (understandably) pessimistic about their chances in 2023, Barlow’s trade value will be at its apex either now or this summer.

Taylor Clarke, RHP | Age: 29 (30 in May) | Contract: Signed for $1.15MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Cut loose by the D-backs after the 2021 season, Clarke signed a surprising Major League deal with Kansas City and proved a shrewd pickup, tossing 49 innings with a 4.04 ERA. Clarke logged 10 holds and a trio of saves but worked more in low- and medium-leverage spots than in high-leverage scenarios.

It might be a middle relief profile, but if you squint there’s perhaps a bit more here. Clarke’s 3.9% walk rate was elite, and he posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (23.6%), swinging-strike rate (12.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.5%) — all while averaging 95.7 mph on his fastball. Fielding independent metrics felt he was far better than his ERA (3.30 FIP, 3.15 xERA, 3.16 SIERA). He doesn’t immediately jump out as a trade candidate, but three affordable years of control on a hard-throwing reliever who’s trending in the right direction might pique another team’s interest.

Amir Garrett, LHP | Age: 30 (31 in May) | Contract: Signed for $2.65MM, free agent after 2023 season

The Royals picked up Garrett in the March trade that sent lefty Mike Minor to Cincinnati. It didn’t work out particularly well for either side. Garrett pitched 45 1/3 innings and limped to a 4.96 ERA as his longstanding command woes spiked to new heights. Garrett walked 16.3% of his opponents last year, plunked another five batters and threw seven wild pitches. His 94.2 mph average fastball was his lowest mark since moving to the bullpen full-time.

Garrett still whiffed a quarter of his opponents, however, and he somewhat incredibly didn’t give up a home run all season. Unsustainable as that feat may be, its reflective of the fact that Garrett didn’t really get hit hard in Kansas City (88.3 mph exit velo, 30% hard-hit rate). Hard-throwing lefties who can miss bats are always going to find work, and Garrett’s salary is quite affordable.

At his best, Garrett logged a 3.03 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate in 74 1/3 innings from 2019-20. Another club might look at him as a bargain power arm who could be fixed.

Brad Keller, RHP | Age: 27 | Contract: Signed for $5.775MM, free agent after 2023 season

It’s been a rough couple seasons for Keller, who from 2018-20 looked like one of the best Rule 5 Draft picks in recent memory. Keller logged a 3.50 ERA through his first three seasons, going from a long reliever to an entrenched member of the Kansas City rotation. His 2021-22 seasons, however, have gone the opposite direction. Since Opening Day 2021, Keller has a 5.24 ERA in 273 1/3 innings. His walk rate has crept upward, and his once solid abilities to avoid hard contact have seemingly evaporated; Keller’s 1.15 HR/9 mark over the past two seasons is nearly double the 0.60 rate he turned in from 2018-20. His opponents’ barrel and hard-hit rates have exploded from 4.5% and 35.7%, respectively, to 8.7% and 42.8%.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Keller’s only trip to the Major League injured list (Covid-related list excluded) was in 2021 when he missed the final month of the season due to a lat strain. That didn’t seem to linger into the 2022 campaign, as Keller avoided the IL entirely while making 22 starts and another 13 relief appearances. At the very least, he should be viewed as a durable, affordable, innings-eating rental. And, if a team can restore his once-plus slider to its previous form, there’s bargain potential for the righty, who won’t turn 28 until late July.

Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF | Age: 31 | Contract: Guaranteed $17.5MM through 2024, plus $10MM club option for 2025

Dozier’s outstanding 2019 season feels like a distant memory. He slashed .279/.348/.522 with 26 home runs that season, clocking in at 23% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. (If that seems low, recall that 2019 is widely regarded as a season in which MLB juiced the baseballs, resulting in unprecedented levels of offense throughout the game.)

Since that time, Dozier has recorded a tepid .226/.297/.391 batting line. His authoritative batted-ball profile from that 2019 season has wilted and now looks quite pedestrian, and Dozier doesn’t have the defensive skills to offset his now lackluster offense. He’s posted respectable defensive grades at first base but ranks as one of the worst third basemen and right fielders in the sport, according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

With $17.5MM in guaranteed money left on his contract, Dozier’s deal is underwater. He could potentially be swapped out for another bad contract, although the Royals typically haven’t made that type of move in the past.

Longer Shots

There are, of course, others who could potentially be of interest to other clubs. The Royals control Brady Singer for another four seasons, and he just enjoyed what looks like a breakout 2022 campaign. Given that glut of remaining club control, however, there’s little reason to entertain the idea of moving Singer unless another team makes a staggering offer. For different reasons, reliever Josh Staumont also seems unlikely to go. The Royals control Staumont through 2025, and from 2020-21 he looked like a long-term piece in the bullpen. Staumont’s walk rate spiked to an awful 16.5% last year, though, and he missed a combined seven weeks with a neck strain and biceps tendinitis. Trading him now would be selling low on a potential power-armed, leverage reliever.

Behind the plate, Salvador Perez is entrenched as the effective captain of the Royals. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote earlier in the offseason that the Royals have no interest in moving Perez, who’s owed $64MM over the next three seasons. That’s not at all surprising, given his status within the organization. Some might naturally think that means young catcher and recent top prospect MJ Melendez could be available, but the Royals have worked Melendez into the outfield and DH mix as well. With six years of club control remaining, there’s little reason to think he’d be available, particularly on the heels of a down season. Melendez isn’t the type of player on whom the Royals would sell low.

Royals, Red Sox Swap Adalberto Mondesi For Josh Taylor

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The Red Sox added some much-needed middle infield help Tuesday, acquiring shortstop Adalberto Mondesi and a player to be named later from the Royals in exchange for left-handed reliever Josh Taylor. Both teams have announced the trade.

In Mondesi, Boston is acquiring an immensely talented 27-year-old infielder — but also one of the most frequently injured players in MLB over the past few seasons. Dating back to the 2018 season, Mondesi has appeared in only 40% of the Royals’ possible games, missing time due to a right shoulder impingement, a groin strain, a pair of left shoulder subluxations, a left hamstring strain, an oblique strain and, most recently, a torn ACL that wiped out his 2022 season. Both the left shoulder injury and ACL tear required surgery.

It’s a daunting list of injuries for Mondesi, but it’s nevertheless difficult not to be enticed by Mondesi’s blend of power, speed and defense. In 1366 Major League plate appearances, Mondesi has 38 home runs, 54 doubles, 20 triples and 133 stolen bases. He’s also amassed 23 Outs Above Average and a 13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2126 career innings at shortstop.

Beyond the injuries, that combination of raw skills is also undercut by an aggressive approach and sub-par bat-to-ball skills that regularly lead to sub-par OBPs. Mondesi has fanned in 30.2% of his plate appearances against just a 4.4% walk rate, and he’s a career .244/.280/.408 hitter in the big leagues. That includes a rough .140/.204/.140 showing in 2022, though that came in a tiny sample of just 54 plate appearances.

Mondesi has tantalized scouts, fans and evaluators for years now, but the Red Sox will be the first team other than the Royals to try to both keep Mondesi healthy and maximize the return on those raw tools. They’re only acquiring a year of his services, as despite his struggles to remain on the field, Mondesi has racked up over five years of Major League service time through his various stints on the injured list. He and the Royals avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3.045MM salary back in December.

Boston’s need for up-the-middle help has skyrocketed over the offseason, with Xander Bogaerts heading to the Padres via free agency and Trevor Story now sidelined for at least a significant portion of the 2023 campaign following internal brace surgery in his right elbow. Boston signed Adam Duvall to play center field, thereby pushing Enrique Hernandez to the middle infield. With Mondesi now on board, he can likely handle the bulk of the workload at shortstop, when healthy, while Hernandez slides over to second base. Christian Arroyo remains on hand as a utility option who could play second base regularly, should Hernandez need to slide over to shortstop in the event of a Mondesi injury.

As for the Royals, the trade of Mondesi represents a disappointing outcome regarding a player they once viewed as a potential foundational piece. The long-term outlook of the infield now contains a new cast of characters, highlighted by Bobby Witt Jr. and defensive standout Nicky Lopez. The trade of Mondesi should open up some additional playing time for 24-year-old Michael Massey, whom the organization hopes can be a prominent piece of the infield for years to come.

Kansas City is acquiring three years of Taylor, an affordable and talented lefty reliever who missed the 2022 season due to a back injury. When he’s been healthy, Taylor has pitched 102 1/3 innings at the MLB level, logging a 3.69 ERA with an impressive 29.4% strikeout rate against a more troubling 10% walk rate. Taylor averages nearly 95 mph on his heater, has average ground-ball tendencies and owns a hefty 15% swinging-strike rate in his career — a possible portent for even more strikeout upside. He’s set to earn $1.025MM in 2023 and is controllable through 2025 via arbitration.

Talented as Taylor is, he’s had his own share of health troubles in his pro career. The lefty missed time with shoulder tendinitis in 2020 before dealing with a back strain late in 2021 and then missing the 2022 season due to a continuation of that back issue. He’s also struggled against right-handed hitters, yielding a .283/.375/.429 batting line as opposed to a .173/.247/.228 slash against lefties.

It’s the second trade in as many days for the Royals, who’ve now trimmed a bit more than $6.5MM off their 2023 payroll by trading Mondesi and center fielder Michael A. Taylor. The newly acquired Josh Taylor and lefty Evan Sisk, acquired in last night’s trade with the Twins, give Kansas City a pair of lefties who could impact the bullpen this season. It also frees up some additional resources for the Royals to continue their reported pursuit of a Zack Greinke reunion or perhaps another bat to add elsewhere in the lineup.

Univision’s Mike Rodriguez first reported that the two sides were getting close to a Mondesi trade. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that a deal sending Mondesi and a PTBNL to the Red Sox in exchange for Taylor was in place (Twitter link).

White Sox Showing Trade Interest In Nicky Lopez

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The White Sox have expressed interest in acquiring Royals infielder Nicky Lopez, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). There’s no indication discussions have gained traction, as Rosenthal notes that Kansas City isn’t anxious to deal the Creighton product.

Lopez, 28 in March, has spent his entire career with the Royals. He reached the majors in 2019, hitting .240/.276/.325 in 103 games as a rookie. He had a similarly rough offensive showing during his second season but earned elite marks for his second base work. Lopez’s +9 defensive runs saved during the shortened season tied for the league lead at the position, earning him another look in 2021.

The left-handed hitter looked to have taken a step forward offensively that season, at least on the surface. He posted a .300/.365/.378 line over 565 trips to the plate, with that offense checking in a hair above league average. That required a lofty .347 batting average on balls in play which he never seemed likely to sustain, and his batted ball metrics weren’t much different than those of his first two seasons. Lopez’s production indeed fell back last season, as he hit .227/.281/.273 without a home run in 480 trips to the plate.

Lopez was one of two hitters (Myles Straw being the other) who tallied 450+ plate appearances without connecting on a home run. He and Straw tied for the game’s second-lowest slugging output, narrowly topping that of Geraldo Perdomo, while ranking in the bottom 10 in hard contact. That lack of power makes him very reliant on turning grounders into singles to drive his offensive profile. That happened in 2021, but his overall .252/.309/.321 career line checks in 27 percentage points below league average as measured by wRC+.

The White Sox, of course, are eying Lopez for other reasons. While he has only slightly above-average pure speed, he’s an instinctive baserunner who has successfully stolen 36 bags in 40 attempts over the past two seasons. That skillset could take on a bit more value in 2023, as the league is introducing limits on the number of pickoff attempts/step-offs a pitcher can deploy in an at-bat.

More importantly, Lopez has shown the potential for excellent infield defense. DRS bizarrely graded him as eight runs below average at second base in 2022, but that’s an anomaly compared to his strong career marks. Statcast estimated him as three runs above average at the keystone and 5 runs above par through 406 innings of shortstop work last season. Both metrics pegged him as a quality defender at each middle infield spot in previous years.

Chicago obviously views Lopez as a potential target for their uncertain second base mix. Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada will cover the left side of the infield. Second base is far less settled. Romy González and Lenyn Sosa look the present favorites for reps, with veteran utilityman Leury García also in the mix. Lopez doesn’t bring a ton of offensive upside but would raise the floor with his glove and baserunning.

The Royals have a somewhat questionable second base mix of their own, though, apparently lessening their desire to part with Lopez. Michael Massey is the top option after hitting .243/.307/.376 over 52 games as a rookie. That was a fine but hardly overwhelming debut showing, leaving the possibility that K.C. pivots back to Lopez if Massey scuffles. The Royals already thinned out their overall infield depth this morning by dealing Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox.

Lopez and the Royals agreed to a $3.7MM salary to avoid arbitration earlier this offseason. He’s under club control for three years, including the upcoming campaign.

Royals Optimistic About Re-Signing Zack Greinke

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Right-hander Zack Greinke signed with the Royals in 2022, returning to the club that drafted him in 2002 and for whom he pitched from 2004 through 2010. The club has reportedly been interested in bringing him back for 2023 since before the offseason even officially began. There’s now less than three weeks until Spring Training and Greinke is still unsigned but Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that the club still wants to re-sign him and is confident about their chances of doing so.

Greinke, 39, was once one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, especially in that earlier stint in Kansas City. The highlight of that tenure was a 2009 season where Greinke tossed 229 1/3 innings over 33 starts with a 2.16 ERA. That showing was strong enough for him to win the American League Cy Young award that year. Since then, he’s gone on to pitch for the Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros before returning to the Royals last season. He’s now tossed over 3,000 innings with a 3.42 ERA over his career.

Though he averaged just under 95 mph on his fastball when he first debuted, he’s gradually transitioned into a soft-tossing control artist. He averaged just over 89 mph on his heater last year, which ranked him 541st out of the 602 pitchers to throw at least 250 pitches, according to Statcast. Despite that diminished velocity, he still found ways to be quite effective on the mound. He made 26 starts and logged 137 frames in 2022, finishing the year with a 3.68 ERA. The pitching-friendly nature of Kauffman Stadium surely helped somewhat, but he also kept his walks down to a tiny 4.6% rate and was in the 60th percentile in terms of missing barrels.

Despite the ongoing interest from the club, a deal has yet to come together, perhaps for financial reasons. Reporting from a couple of weeks ago indicated the Royals were hoping to get Greinke back via some kind of incentive-laden deal, perhaps with a lower guarantee than in 2022, which was for $13MM plus $2MM of incentives. However, it’s possible that the club’s perspective on the financial situation has changed recently. Since that report, the club has agreed to terms with Aroldis Chapman on a deal with a $3.75MM guarantee, but also traded Michael A. Taylor to the Twins for minor leaguers and Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox for Josh Taylor. Michael A. Taylor is going to make $4.5MM this year while Mondesi will make $3.045MM and Josh Taylor $1.025MM. Those moves combined saved the club about $3MM in salary commitments, which they could perhaps then use to help get Greinke to put pen to paper. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $103MM, a jump from last year’s Opening Day figure of $95MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

If Greinke comes back to Kansas City for another year, he’ll hopefully provide some stability to a rotation that doesn’t currently have much of it. The club signed 32-year-old Jordan Lyles earlier in the offseason to give them one reliable veteran. Brady Singer should have another rotation spot spoken for after a breakout campaign last year. It seems like Ryan Yarbrough will be given a shot to grab a starting job after signing for a $3MM guarantee, though he spent a decent amount of time as a long reliever with the Rays and could be bumped back to that kind of role again. Brad Keller has lots of starting experience but got bumped to the bullpen in the second half of last year and finished with a 5.09 ERA for the season. Daniel Lynch was a 34th overall selection in the 2018 draft but has a 5.32 ERA for his career so far. It’s a similar story for other high draft picks like Kris Bubic and Jackson Kowar, who have career ERAs of 4.89 and 10.76, respectively.

No other clubs have been previously connected to Greinke this offseason besides the Royals, though Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports today that the Orioles spoke with him at one point. The O’s have been on the hunt for starting pitching all winter and are reportedly still looking for upgrades, though Rosenthal says they’re not confident about landing Greinke.

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