Julio Urias Suffers Setback In Rehab From Hamstring Injury
Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias was set to be activated from the 15-day injured list to start tomorrow’s game against the Phillies, but manager Dave Roberts tells reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) that those plans have been put on hold after Urias didn’t bounce back fully from Thursday’s bullpen session. Ardaya notes that while Urias has not been shut down from throwing, he’ll be limited to throwing off flat ground for the time being, and will likely need a rehab assignment before he can return to the club’s rotation.
The news is a blow to the Dodgers, who recently put right-hander Noah Syndergaard on the IL where he and Urias are joined by the likes of Ryan Pepiot, Walker Buehler, and Dustin May. Urias was expected to help stabilize a rotation that currently only has four set starters in Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Bobby Miller, and Michael Grove. While right-hander Gavin Stone is healthy in the minors, Roberts noted that the 24-year-old right-hander isn’t an option for this coming turn through the rotation after the youngster pitched 4 1/3 innings in a start at the Triple-A level yesterday.
That leaves the Dodgers likely set to utilize a bullpen game on Sunday. While Gonsolin would be on regular rest if he were to start Sunday, the Dodgers appeared poised to utilize their coming off-day on Monday to rest their rotation, which a bullpen game on Sunday would still allow them to do. Andre Jackson and Justin Bruihl are the other Triple-A pitchers currently on the 40-man roster for the Dodgers.
As for Urias, his start to the 2023 season has surely not been the platform campaign he was hoping for ahead of his expected free agency this winter. Urias entered this season with a career 2.82 ERA and 3.44 FIP in 599 2/3 innings of work following a particularly stellar 2022 campaign where he led the NL in ERA while finishing top three in Cy Young award voting. All that figured to make Urias perhaps the most coveted free agent of the coming offseason this side of Shohei Ohtani, and while that certainly could still prove to be the case, Urias’s injury woes and pedestrian 4.39 ERA in ten starts this season have done little to boost his resume ahead of his first foray into free agency.
William Cuevas Signs With KBO’s KT Wiz
The KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization have signed right-hander William Cuevas, the team announced (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). He’ll receive a $450K salary. In a corresponding move, the Wiz released righty Beau Sulser.
Cuevas, who pitched in the majors between 2016-18, had been in Triple-A with the Dodgers after signing a minor league deal in April. He started nine of 11 appearances for their Oklahoma City affiliate, working to a 6.14 ERA through 44 frames. Cuevas had a decent 22.1% strikeout rate but struggled with home runs in the difficult Pacific Coast League setting. The Dodgers granted him his release yesterday, which Triple-A communications director Alex Freedman notes (on Twitter) coincides with the recent signing of veteran lefty Mike Montgomery to a non-roster deal.
While the jump from an American to an Asian professional league could lead to an adjustment for some players, Cuevas shouldn’t have much trouble getting acclimated. He signed with this same Wiz club leading into the 2019 season and spent three-plus years there. Cuevas was a reliable rotation fixture through 2021, helping them win the Korean Series during his third year. An elbow injury led the Wiz to let him go last May. Now that he’s healthy, they’ll bring him back to a familiar setting.
Sulser signed with the Wiz last November. The 29-year-old made nine starts but struggled to a 5.62 ERA through 49 2/3 innings. He struck out a fairly modest 15.8% of opponents against a quality 6.3% walk rate. The KBO club moved on quickly once the chance to reunite with Cuevas presented itself.
As a result, Sulser returns to the open market and could seek out minor league landing spots. He has ten games of major league experience, all coming last season between the Pirates and Orioles. Sulser has a 5.17 ERA over 179 1/3 frames at the Triple-A level.
Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #5: Pirates Get A Shortstop With Elite Tools For Tony Watson
With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7. and No. 6. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 6…
The Pirates endured a long postseason drought that spanned the changing of the millenium. They made the postseason in three straight years from 1990 to 1992 but then didn’t return for over 20 years. They had another three-year run beginning in 2013, qualifying for the Wild Card game that year as well as the next two. They couldn’t keep it going in 2016, dropping to 78-83 and missing the postseason.
The club had many star players in that time, particularly Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Russell Martin, Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and others, but one fixture of those Pittsburgh clubs was left-handed reliever Tony Watson. Drafted by the Bucs in 2007, he made it to the majors in 2011. He tossed 41 innings in his debut season with a 3.95 ERA, securing 10 holds in the process.
He would get even better in the seasons to come, his peak coinciding with those postseason years for the Pirates. He had a miniscule 1.63 ERA in 77 1/3 innings in 2014, striking out 26.6% of batters faced while walking 4.9% and getting grounders on 47.7% of balls in play. He only notched a couple of saves as Mark Melancon was in the closer’s role, but Watson tallied 34 holds.
Watson’s effectiveness would fade a bit in the subsequent seasons, hardly a surprise given that his excellent 2014 campaign would be almost impossible to maintain. His ERA climbed to 1.91 in 2015 and then 3.06 in 2016. His strikeout rate also fell to 21.2% and 21.3% in those seasons. Nonetheless, he was still a very effective relief pitcher.
The Pirates weren’t able to bounce back from their down season in 2016. At the end of July 2017, they were sporting a record of 51-54, fourth place in the National League Central and 8.5 games back in the Wild Card race. Watson was pitching fine that year, with a 3.66 ERA at the time. But since he was just a few months away from free agency and the club was struggling, it made sense to move on.
Watson had spent his entire career with the Pirates up until he was traded to the Dodgers on July 31, 2017. He made 24 appearances for his new club with a 2.70 ERA as they finished 104-58, the best record in the majors. He made 11 more appearances in the postseason with a 2.70 ERA. The Dodgers eventually lost the World Series in what will go down as a major “what if” since it was the now-infamous sign-stealing Astros club that emerged victorious in seven games.
In exchange for Watson, the Pirates got a couple of younger players from the Dodgers. One of them was 21-year-old right-hander Angel German. He wasn’t considered a top prospect but had a 1.91 ERA in Single-A that year. Unfortunately, he bumped that to a 6.92 ERA in High-A in 2018 and then a 4.33 in Double-A in 2019. He reached free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Rays going into 2020, but was released in May of 2020 amid the pandemic shutdown. He hasn’t pitched in an official capacity since.
The other player in the deal was 18-year-old infielder Oneil Cruz. He had signed with the Dodgers in July of 2015 as a 16-year-old international amateur, securing a bonus of $950K. He played in the Dominican Summer League in 2016, hitting .294/.367/.444 in 211 plate appearances and stealing 11 bases.
Going into 2017, Baseball America ranked him the #27 prospect in the Dodgers system and their report highlighted something that has been a subject of interest in the years since: his size. “Cruz is a great example of the challenges unique to international scouting,” the report states. “As a 15-year-old working out for clubs in the Dominican Republic, Cruz was a 6-foot-1 shortstop. By the time he signed with the Dodgers for $950,000 as a 16-year-old, Cruz had shot up to 6-foot-4. He grew taller after signing, and by the time the 2016 Dominican Summer League season began, he was pushing 6-foot-6.”
Cruz actually was slumping in the first half of 2017, as he was hitting just .240/.293/.342 in 89 Single-A games. He had eight home runs and eight stolen bases but was striking out at a 29.3% clip. Nonetheless, the Pirates decided to take a gamble on him and brought him aboard in the Watson deal.
Six years later, it certainly seems like it was a worthwhile gamble. Cruz has risen through the ranks over the years, becoming a top 100 prospect thanks to his elite tools. He got a very brief two-game cup of coffee in the majors at the end of 2021 but then was sent back to the minors at the start of 2022. He was recalled in June and showed both the reasons for his prospect hype but also the concerning parts of his game.
Cruz has arguably the best raw athletic traits of any player in the league. His 122.4 mph maximum exit velocity was tops in the majors last year. His sprint speed was in the 98th percentile. His arm strength was in the 97th percentile. In short, he can hit for power, run and throw among the best in the world.
But one of the major questions around Cruz as a prospect was whether his height, now 6’7″, would prevent him from playing shortstop. No one that size had ever successfully played the position before. The other question was whether or not his penchant for strikeouts would become too much of a problem. Neither of those questions were definitively answered last year.
Despite hitting 17 home runs in 87 games, Cruz went down on strikes in 34.9% of his plate appearances. Among players with at least 350 trips to the plate, only Joey Gallo and Chris Taylor were punched out at a higher rate. On the defensive side of things, the reviews were mixed. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of +1, but Ultimate Zone Rating came in at -7.5 and Outs Above Average at -9.
2023 was going to be an important season for Cruz, still just 24, to show the Pirates if he were capable of improving in either of those areas. Unfortunately, after just nine games, he suffered an ankle fracture during an awkward slide in a close play at home plate. The estimated timeline on that injury was four months, meaning he could be back in August if that prediction holds.
It’s still unknown whether Cruz will reach his full potential or not. Despite the injury setback, the Pirates have time to find out, as Cruz isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. He and the club have also discussed an extension that could potentially keep him around even longer. Regardless of how it plays out, the Pirates have a player who arguably has one of the highest ceilings in the sport. If he takes a step forward in terms of defense and plate discipline, his tools will give him the chance to be one of the best players in the league.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Dodgers Place Noah Syndergaard On Injured List
The Dodgers announced Thursday morning that struggling right-hander Noah Syndergaard has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a blister on his right index finger. Fellow righty Tayler Scott has been recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City to take Syndergaard’s spot on the roster.
The 2023 season has been an abject nightmare for Syndergaard. The former Mets powerhouse inked a one-year, $13MM contract with the Dodgers in hopes of rebounding from last year’s pedestrian showing between the Angels/Phillies and returning to the market in stronger standing. Instead, the 30-year-old righty has floundered through the worst season of his big league career. In 12 starts, Syndergaard has averaged just 4 2/3 innings per outing, sitting at a total of 55 1/3 frames on the year. In that span, he’s been rocked for a 7.18 ERA with a career-worst 15.4% strikeout rate.
Syndergaard averaged a career-low 94.5 mph on his heater in 2022, and though he voiced confidence in his ability to push that mark toward his pre-Tommy John Surgery levels of 97-99 mph upon signing with the Dodgers, his heater has continued to diminish. He’s sitting at an average of 92.8 mph in 2023 (93.3 mph over his three most recent starts). As that four-seamer has deteriorated, Syndergaard has added a new cutter and increasingly favored his sinker. Neither pitch has been effective, however. Opponents are hitting .366/.381/.537 against that freshly implemented cutter, while plate appearances ended with his sinker have produced a .309/.380/.529 slash. Per Statcast, the only of Syndergaard’s five pitches that has a better-than-average “expected” wOBA is his curveball — his least-used offering (12.2%).
Syndergaard’s walk rate remains elite, checking in at an outstanding 3.7% this season. That’s the fourth-best mark in MLB (min. 50 innings), trailing only George Kirby (2%), Zack Greinke (3.3%) and Zach Eflin (3.5%). However, Syndergaard’s 15.4% strikeout rate is tied for eighth-lowest in that same set of pitchers — a remarkable fall for a pitcher who fanned 26.5% of his hitters through his first five MLB seasons. Compounding the problem is that Syndergaard’s average of 1.95 homers allowed per nine innings pitched is the eighth-worst mark among the 98 pitchers with at least 50 innings in 2023.
Were the Dodgers healthier as a team, perhaps they might’ve already had their hand forced with regard to the struggling Syndergaard. They’ve been hit hard by injuries on the pitching side of the roster, however, with each of Julio Urias, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove requiring notable stints on the injured list. That’s perhaps bought Syndergaard some extra time, but Urias is expected to return this weekend. At that point, the Dodgers will have Clayton Kershaw, Urias and Gonsolin in their top three spots, with impressive rookie Bobby Miller tightening his hold on that fourth spot.
Syndergaard would join Grove and top prospect Gavin Stone as a candidate for that fifth spot, and at least for the time being, neither of those two younger options has seized the job. But with Pepiot and May expected back this summer and the trade deadline now about seven weeks away, there’s no certainty Syndergaard will have a long leash to prove himself as one of the team’s five best options.
Injury Notes: Lowe, Paddack, Thompson, Suarez
The Rays placed second baseman Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list earlier this week. While the club initially announced his injury as lower back inflammation, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Lowe has a disc herniation. Manager Kevin Cash said before tonight’s game Lowe will be shut down from all baseball activities for two to three weeks.
It’ll clearly be more than a minimal stay for the power-hitting infielder. Lowe will need some time to ramp up once he can again begin working out, and the absence is significant enough he’ll probably require a minor league rehab assignment. Given that timeline, it doesn’t seem out of the question Lowe is out of MLB action through the All-Star Break. It’s the second straight season in which his back has given him problems. Lowe’s 2022 campaign was cut short by a lower back issue in mid-September.
The Rays figure to rotate a number of players through the keystone in his absence. Vidal Bruján started the first two games there after Lowe’s IL placement. The Rays kicked Taylor Walls over from third base tonight, penciling Isaac Paredes in at the hot corner.
A few other health updates from around the game:
- The Twins have been without Chris Paddack since he underwent a second career Tommy John procedure last May. The right-hander has maintained a goal of returning for the stretch run this season. That still seems to be on track, as Paddack began throwing off a mound last week (relayed by Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). He’s shooting for a big league return in September, though it’s possible that’ll have to be in relief to accelerate his build-up. Acquired from the Padres on the eve of Opening Day last year, Paddack has made just five starts as a Twin. Nevertheless, the organization guaranteed him $12.25MM to buy out his first year of would-be free agency (2025) over the offseason.
- Dodgers outfielder Trayce Thompson landed on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain over the weekend. Manager Dave Roberts initially pegged his expected absence around a month, though it seems that was a bit optimistic. Roberts told reporters this evening that Thompson is likely to miss beyond 30 days (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). It’s not expected to be a season-ending injury but there wasn’t any further clarity on the timeline. It seems possible he’ll wind up on the 60-day injured list if L.A. needs a 40-man roster spot in the coming weeks. The Dodgers called up rookie Jonny DeLuca to take Thompson’s spot on the MLB roster.
- The Angels have been without starter José Suarez for a month on account of a strain in his throwing shoulder. It doesn’t seem the southpaw is particularly close to a return, as Sam Blum of the Athletic wrote yesterday that Suarez had yet to begin throwing. There’s not a clear timetable for when he might start working off a mound, although Blum adds that he has been working out at the team’s Arizona complex. A reliable #4 starter for the past few years, Suarez has had a nightmarish 2023. He was tagged for a 9.62 ERA over six appearances before he landed on the shelf.
Dodgers Sign Kole Calhoun, Mike Montgomery To Minor League Deals
The Dodgers have signed outfielder Kole Calhoun and left-hander Mike Montgomery to minor league contracts, according to an announcement from Triple-A communications director Alex Freedman (Twitter link). They’ll each join the organization’s highest affiliate in Oklahoma City. The Dodgers also assigned reliever Zack Burdi outright to OKC after he went unclaimed on waivers, per the transactions log at MLB.com.
Calhoun hit free agency earlier in the week when he opted out of a non-roster deal with the Yankees. The 11-year MLB veteran had a solid month in New York’s system, hitting .281/.390/.528 in 23 games. He hit four home runs and walked in a strong 12.4% of his plate appearances. Nevertheless, the Yankees opted against bringing him up as part of a corner outfield that has been a revolving door aside from Aaron Judge.
That’s a reflection of Calhoun’s recent struggles against big league pitching. He’d been a productive player for a while with the Angels and D-Backs but has fallen on hard times since 2021. The 35-year-old owns a .208/.269/.343 slash over his past 606 MLB plate appearances. He’s yet to crack the majors this year.
He’ll try to change that in L.A., where the Dodgers recently placed Trayce Thompson on the injured list. Los Angeles brought up Jonny DeLuca to replace him and has lost prospect Andy Pages for the year to shoulder surgery. That pair of developments has thinned the Triple-A depth.
Montgomery, 34 next month, is trying to get back to the highest level for the first time since 2020. The southpaw has appeared for three different major league teams and is best known for his time with the Cubs, where he saved Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. He’s had a tough go over the past few seasons, including a 6.72 ERA in Triple-A with the Mets last year. Montgomery had signed with a Mexican League club for 2023 but didn’t wind up making any appearances there.
As for Burdi, he’s landed on waivers a few times of late. The Dodgers claimed him from Tampa Bay two weeks ago but didn’t use him in a major league game. He’s pitched three times with the Rays this year, allowing six runs in four innings. The hard-throwing righty has an 8.44 ERA in 21 1/3 frames over parts of three seasons.
Burdi has previously gone unclaimed on waivers in his career. As a result, he’ll have the ability to elect minor league free agency and explore other opportunities if he doesn’t want to stick in Oklahoma City.
Dodgers Select Nick Robertson
The Dodgers have selected the contract of right-hander Nick Robertson from Triple-A Oklahoma City and optioned fellow righty Tayler Scott to Triple-A in a corresponding move, per a team announcement. It’ll be the big league debut for Robertson, a 24-year-old bullpen prospect, whenever he first takes the mound. The Dodgers already have an open 40-man spot, so they don’t need an additional move beyond optioning Scott.
Robertson, the Dodgers’ seventh-round pick in the 2019 draft, ranked 46th among Dodger prospects on the list of FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen back in January, where he was tabbed as a likely middle reliever despite going unselected in the Rule 5 Draft. He’s had an outstanding start to his season in OKC, pitching 25 1/3 innings with a 2.13 ERA that’s backed by an exceptional 37.4% strikeout rate and strong 7.1% walk rate. Robertson has kept the ball on the ground at a 48.1% clip and found success against both righties and lefties, the latter likely in large part due to heavy usage of an above-average changeup.
While he had a rough go in a couple stints of Double-A ball, Robertson has breezed through Triple-A pitching, both in a small sample of 11 1/3 innings last year and in this season’s 25 1/3 frames. He looks the part of a big league-ready bullpen piece, and the Dodgers will give him that opportunity as they look to stabilize what’s been a top-heavy unit. Dodgers relievers rank 26th in baseball with a 4.64 ERA, and the majority of their success has come from Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson. Robertson will get the chance to help smooth things out, although given the Dodgers’ habitual cycling of arms through the final few spots of their relief corps, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Robertson optioned a few times even if he performs well.
Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, De La Cruz, Rushing, Vientos, Keith
Last week’s lead Big Hype Prospect, Andrew Abbott, is already on his way to the Majors. Let’s see if we can pull the trick two weeks in a row.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Colton Cowser, 23, OF, BAL (AAA)
186 PA, 8 HR 5 SB, .347/.484/.590
When he hit the injured list with a quad injury in mid-May, Cowser was playing his way into Major League consideration. Cowser returned to action over the weekend, going a combined 4-for-5 with two walks, a double, and a homer. He’s produced multiple hits in 14 of 39 games this season. Cedric Mullins is currently sidelined with a groin injury. Although replacement center fielder Aaron Hicks has played well in his absence, underlying metrics suggest Hicks is toast. The club also has a partial opening at designated hitter which can be filled on a more permanent basis by Anthony Santander. Cowser has the athletic ability to stick in center field, but he could be a truly plus defender in the outfield corners. There’s concern he’ll struggle against left-handed pitching early in his career. At worst case, he looks like a high-probability strong-side platoon hitter. That’s why he’s creeping towards Top 10 prospect status on many lists.
Elly De La Cruz, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (AAA)
186 PA, 12 HR, 11 SB, .297/.398/.633
My recent fantasy chat included at least a half dozen questions about when De La Cruz will debut. I don’t have any special insight into the Reds thought process. The decision is complex, made even more so due to new service time and draft pick compensation rules. Role playing as the Reds, there is a certain attractiveness to following the Corbin Carroll model. As you’ll recall, Carroll debuted in late-August and performed decently in his debut. He’s now on pace to handily win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The timing of his initial promotion ensured he would be club-controlled through 2028 (a contract extension has since further extended the Diamondbacks control). A later debut for De La Cruz would ensure he’s under control through at least 2029.
Were it up to me, he would be in the Majors tomorrow. Of all prospects in the minors, he has the least to prove. To my eyes, he’s the most physically impressive prospect since Fernando Tatis Jr. Among his most impressive traits are a 93.4-mph average exit velocity with a 118.8-mph max EV. This season, Matt Olson leads the league with a hardest-hit ball of 118.6-mph.
Dalton Rushing, 22, C, LAD (A+)
188 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .261/.431/.507
Rushing has followed up a wild 2022 debut with an impressive, discipline-forward performance. Defensive reviews of the left-handed hitting catching prospect skew vaguely negative. He’s a high-effort receiver who will need to work hard to polish his game. Since his bat is so advanced, a move to a corner position might be required so he can progress through the minors at a more rapid pace. The Dodgers are blessed with a number of highly regarded catchers. They can certainly afford for Rushing to play elsewhere. It might be advisable to get Rushing’s bat in Double-A before he becomes too accustomed to a 19.7 percent walk rate. Discipline is an excellent trait to possess, but it needs to be coupled with selective aggression within the strike zone.
For clarity the speculation about Rushing moving off catcher is my own based on the Dodgers inventory. I’ve not seen a scout suggest it’s necessary.
Mark Vientos, 23, DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 166 PA, 13 HR, .333/.416/.688
Vientos possesses (and gets to) incredibly consistent power in-game. Although he’s only hitting .188/.206/.281 in 34 plate appearances, his exit velocities (96.1-mph average, 112.8-mph max) tell another story. Among hitters with over 30 plate appearances, only Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have tallied higher average exit velocities. While it’s in part a small sample fluke, Vientos did average 94.5-mph in Triple-A. The flaws in his game could limit his ceiling. In particular, he tends to make low-angle, pulled contact. He’s expected to be strikeout prone. He could find himself cast as a second-division starter or limited to facing certain pitcher types.
Colt Keith, 21, 3B, DET (AA)
217 PA, 10 HR, 1 SB, .321/.396/.563
Keith has built upon a breakout 2022 in High-A by doing much the same in Double-A. He’s even trimmed three points from his swinging strike rate. There’s risk he’ll continue to move down the defensive spectrum. He was being trained as a second baseman last season, but he’s made only three starts at the keystone in 2023. His bat is his carrying characteristic, fueled by plus discipline and a willingness to ambush mistakes in the zone. Wherever he winds up defensively, his bat looks like it will play in the Majors.
Three More
Bryan Woo, SEA (23): The Mariners opted to jump Woo straight from Double-A for his debut last Saturday. His performance in Double-A was masterful (44 innings, 2.05 ERA). His first start, not so much (2 IP, 7 H, 6 R). Scouts have long loved the life and shape of his fastball. His slider and changeup remain works in progress.
Chase Hampton, NYY (21): One of the top-performing pitching prospects in the minors, Hampton is beginning to draw attention from scouts. His mid-90s fastball reportedly tunnels well with a plus slider and curve. As with many young power pitchers, his changeup lags behind his other offerings. Hampton has an 18.8 percent swinging strike rate in High-A.
Luken Baker, STL (26): A former second-round draft pick, Baker experienced a breakthrough in Triple-A this season, bashing 18 home runs in 244 plate appearances. He produced a 92.8-mph average and 113.5-mph max EV. Baker made his debut as the designated hitter on Sunday.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History: Honorable Mentions
The calendar has flipped to June, and more than one-third of the season is in the rearview mirror. While there’s still plenty of time for the standings to change in dramatic fashion — just ask the 2022 Phillies or 2019 Nationals — the “early” portion of the season is a bit behind us. As the weather heats up and playoff pictures begin to take a more definitive shape, the baseball world inherently turns its focus to a few things: the looming All-Star Game, the upcoming amateur draft and, of course, the annual trade deadline.
June trades of note are admittedly rare — particularly over the past ten years or so — but we’re fast approaching the portion of the season where trade needs, potential trade candidates and many other deadline-adjacent minutiae begin to crystallize. It’s common for fans of rebuilding and/or underperforming clubs to begin to wonder just what sort of returns their favorite team might be able to eke out for veteran players with dwindling club control.
Some of the most common questions we’re asked in chats at MLBTR these days center around what a team might be able to get for a certain player — rentals in particular. Names like Lucas Giolito, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Jeimer Candelario were just a few readers asked me about this past week. To be clear, it’s not a given that all or even any of those specific names will change hands in two months’ time (or sooner), but it’s obviously a hot topic that’s on people’s minds.
As such, it only seemed natural to take a look back through recent history and look at some high-profile trades of rental players and see which panned out the best for the team selling off the veteran player in question. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll roll out a look at the ten “best” returns for rental players in recent trade deadline history.
A few caveats of note! At times, it can take three, four, five years or even longer for a team to begin reaping the benefits from such a deal. An immediate return isn’t always apparent, particularly when you’re only selling two months of a player or players. As such, we’re not considering trades completed at last year’s deadline for our top ten, even though they could well prove excellent as soon as 2024 or 2025. It’s simply too soon to evaluate those swaps. Also, these rankings are subjective; they’re not based on a hard-and-fast WAR criteria or anything of the sort. If you think we should’ve ranked No. 7 higher and No. 4 lower, let us know. It’s all part of the fun.
While I said we’re omitting last year’s deadline from our top ten, that doesn’t mean we’ll completely ignore the results of the 2022 deadline. To kick off the series, here’s a quick look at three honorable mentions from 2017-21 as well as a handful of 2022 trades that will be worth keeping an eye on in the years to come. Present-day impact of these 2022 trades has either been minimal or nonexistent, but each brought the “selling” team some nearly MLB-ready help that could be impactful as soon as this season. These honorable mentions and 2022 swaps aren’t ranked — they’re just sorted alphabetically by the last name of the player who was traded.
Let’s begin!
Honorable Mentions
Orioles acquire RHPs Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and LHP Josh Rogers from the Yankees in exchange for LHP Zack Britton (7/24/18)
Two-thirds of this return for Baltimore wound up making little to no impact, but the acquisition of Tate, a former No. 4 overall draft pick, wound up paying dividends. Though Tate isn’t the rotation piece the Rangers hoped for when drafting him or the Yankees envisioned when acquiring him for Carlos Beltran, he’s emerged as a quality setup man at Camden Yards. The O’s gave Tate just ten starts after the trade before moving him to the bullpen, and while his rookie effort in 2019 left plenty to be desired, he’s since pitched quite well.
Dating back to 2020, Tate has a 3.65 ERA in 158 innings of relief, adding 25 holds and eight saves along the way. Tate’s 19.1% strikeout rate is below-average, but his 6.8% walk rate is better than average and his 57.9% grounder rate is outstanding. In 2022, he pitched to a pristine 3.05 ERA through 73 2/3 frames, tallying five of those saves and 16 of those holds. A forearm strain has kept Tate out of action this year, however.
Tate isn’t peak Britton and likely never will be, but trading two months of an elite reliever and winding up with six years of club control over an above-average reliever isn’t a bad outcome for Baltimore. As for the Yankees, they got the tail end of Britton’s prime. He notched a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings down the stretch and re-signed on a three-year deal with a fourth year option (that had to be exercised after the contract’s second season to prevent a Britton opt-out). Britton posted a sub-2.00 ERA in both 2019 and 2020, but he pitched just 19 innings over his final two years in New York due to injuries.
Rays acquire LHP Jalen Beeks from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi (7/25/18)
Few could’ve predicted what an impactful trade this would end up being at the time it was made. At the time of the swap, Eovaldi was in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and had pitched 57 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Tampa Bay. He’d long intrigued teams with his power arsenal but was inconsistent and carried a career ERA that more or less matched that season total.
Eovaldi took off in Boston, however, tossing 54 frames of 3.33 ERA ball as the Sox marched to the postseason, where he cemented his status in Red Sox lore. Eovaldi was a star that October, tossing 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio. Those are impressive numbers on their own, but they only tell part of the tale. Eovaldi won his first two starts of the playoffs before moving to the bullpen and picking up a pair of holds. But it was Game 3 of the World Series, where Eovaldi gutted out six innings of relief in an 18-inning marathon and finished out the game, that many will remember. The Dodgers wound up winning when Eovaldi’s 97th (!) pitch out of the bullpen was deposited in the seats by Max Muncy, but he saved the Boston bullpen with six innings of one-run ball that night. The Sox went on to win the World Series in five games.
As for the Rays, they came away with a lefty who’d come up through Boston’s system as a starter but would be used in a jack-of-all-trades role in St. Petersburg. Beeks has served as a long reliever, a setup man and an opener in parts of five seasons with Tampa Bay, totaling 258 innings of 4.12 ERA ball along the way. He’s been the type of versatile arm whose value can’t be neatly encapsulated in what looks like an otherwise modest WAR total. Beeks has handled just about any role the Rays could ask, and he’s generally been effective in doing so. He’s not a star, but he’s been an important member of their pitching staff for a half decade now and is still under team control through the 2024 season.
Tigers acquire RHP Reese Olson from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Daniel Norris (7/30/21)
The 23-year-old Olson made his big league debut on Friday when he stepped into the Detroit rotation to take the spot of the injured Eduardo Rodriguez. As far as debuts go, it was nearly as good as a young pitcher could ask for. Olson carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before being tagged for a pair of runs and departing five frames of two-run ball in the books.
Olson isn’t regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects and isn’t even universally considered to be among the Tigers’ top 10 prospects, but he’s missed bats consistently in the upper minors and is regarded as a potential long-term rotation piece if he can improve upon the command of his fastball. Scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and MLB.com praise Olson’s secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, which he’s begun using effectively even in right-on-right situations.
Detroit has seen a lot of turnover in the baseball operations department since this trade, but former GM Al Avila, AGM David Chadd and others will be in line for some praise if the Tigers get a viable big leaguer in exchange for two months of the veteran Norris, who was sitting on a 5.38 ERA in 36 2/3 innings at the time of the deal. Norris had been tough on lefties, and the Brewers surely felt they could coax a higher level of performance out of him with some tweaks. That didn’t happen, however, as Norris was rocked for a 6.64 ERA in Milwaukee, walking 15 of the 63 batters he faced (23.8%) and serving up five homers in 20 1/3 frames (2.2 HR/9).
2022 Deadline Swaps to Watch
Pirates acquire RHP Johan Oviedo, INF Malcom Nunez from the Cardinals in exchange for LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Chris Stratton (8/2/22)
Yes, technically this isn’t a pure rental. Stratton had an additional year of club control, and that surely factored into the return. But he was also sitting on a 5.09 ERA at the time of the deal, and this was largely a trade centered around getting Quintana to land some much-needed rotation help in St. Louis.
The Cardinals got just what they wanted out of this deal — and then some. Quintana stepped into the rotation and not only solidified the staff but pitched to a brilliant 2.01 ERA in 62 2/3 frames down the stretch. The lefty was so excellent that St. Louis wound up tabbing him as the Game 1 starter in last year’s National League Division Series. Quintana had signed a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason and was acquired as a back-end starter but pitched like an ace. The script doesn’t get much better for the acquiring team.
That said, this trade also has the makings of a winner for Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old Oviedo has been inconsistent but shown flashes of brilliance with the Bucs. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches — particularly more curveballs, which has been an extremely effective offering for him through 11 starts. Oviedo’s 4.50 ERA in 58 innings looks pretty pedestrian, but he’s upped his ground-ball rate and improved his velocity even in a rotation role. He’s allowed one or zero runs in six of his 11 starts this year. The Pirates can control Oviedo for four more years beyond the current season, and if he’s a legitimate starter or even a multi-inning relief piece, that’ll be a fine return for their modest Quintana flier. Nunez, meanwhile, hit .286/.381/.476 in Double-A following the trade and is at .255/.338/.369 in 160 Triple-A plate appearances this year.
Cubs acquire RHP Ben Brown from the Phillies in exchange for RHP David Robertson (8/2/22)
Robertson was one of the most in-demand relievers — or trade candidates in general — at last year’s deadline, and the rebuilding/retooling Cubs needed to get their return right. So far, it looks like they’ve done just that. Brown is out to a sensational start in the upper minors this year, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with a 35.5% strikeout rate against a less-appealing 11.7% walk rate. Baseball America ranked him sixth among Cubs prospects heading into the season, and The Athletic’s Keith Law called him a “heck of a get for two months of a 37-year-old reliever.” FanGraphs currently has him ranked 87th on their top-100 prospect list, and MLB.com moved him into its top-100 just this morning.
Despite Brown’s wide-reaching acclaim, the Phillies might not even regret making the swap. Robertson struggled with his command following the trade but still posted 22 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and saved six games for Philadelphia down the stretch in a tight Wild Card race that saw them edge out the Brewers by exactly one win. The Phillies needed every single victory, and if they’d held onto Brown and targeted a different reliever(s), who knows whether they’d have reached the playoffs? Were it not for Robertson — who pitched 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs — the Phils may never have experienced J.T. Realmuto‘s NLDS inside-the-parker, Rhys Hoskins‘ four-homer NLCS, or Bryce Harper‘s iconic NLCS-clinching bomb.
Angels acquire OFs Mickey Moniak, Jadiel Sanchez from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Noah Syndergaard (8/2/22)
This trade might not have gone as well as the Phillies hoped. Syndergaard was decent down the stretch, pitching to a 4.12 ERA in 10 appearances, nine of them starts. He started just twice in the postseason and made one relief appearance. Syndergaard pitched like a fourth or fifth starter but saw his already diminished velocity and strikeout rate step even further back following the trade. Again, the Phils needed every last win to get to the playoffs, though, so it’s hard to say they’d definitively have done anything different. They won six of Syndergaard’s nine starts and also picked up the victory in the lone game they used him out of the bullpen, when he tossed two scoreless frames.
At least thus far, Angels fans can’t complain about the return. Moniak isn’t going to sustain a .429 batting average on balls in play, but he’s hitting .327/.340/.694 in 50 plate appearances. The BABIP and a 34% strikeout rate scream for regression, but the former 1-1 pick has already hit as many homers through 50 trips to the plate with the Halos (four) as he did in 167 with the Phillies. He’s played good defense, run well and given some hope that he can carve out a role moving forward.
Red Sox acquire INF Enmanuel Valdez, OF Wilyer Abreu from the Astros in exchange for C Christian Vazquez (8/1/22)
Trading Vazquez was part of a disjointed Red Sox trade deadline that saw Boston trade away their longtime catcher and lefty reliever Jake Diekman while also acquiring Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. It wasn’t clear that their 2023 roster was improved, and the decision to hold onto other trade targets while adding Pham’s salary left them just over the luxury tax line (thereby reducing their compensation for qualifying offers extended to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi).
Digression aside, the swap might prove beneficial to the Sox in the long run. Valdez has already made his big league debut, and although his bat faded after a hot start, he’s still sporting a passable .244/.292/.422 batting line (91 wRC+) in his first 97 big league plate appearances. He’s picked up four homers, four doubles and three steals (in four tries) while subbing in at second base in the wake of a slew of middle-infield injuries. Valdez posted absolutely massive numbers in 205 Double-A plate appearances last year (.357/.463/.649) before moving up to Triple-A and hitting .265/.327/.488.
Abreu, meanwhile, was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and is hitting .264/.379/.479 in 40 Triple-A games so far. He’s regarded as a potential plus outfield defender, and his success in Triple-A and status on the 40-man roster mean the Red Sox could possibly have two MLB contributors within a year or so of trading Vazquez.
It’s hard to say anything moves the 2022 Astros made “didn’t work out,” as the team won the World Series in the end. But Vazquez took a backseat to Martin Maldonado both in the regular season and the playoffs, hitting just .250/.278/.308 in 108 regular-season plate appearances following the swap (plus .235/.316/.235 in just 19 playoff plate appearances).
Braves Claim Luke Williams From Dodgers
The Braves announced that they have claimed infielder Luke Williams off waivers from the Dodgers and optioned him to Triple-A Gwinnett. There had been no public indication that Williams lost his roster spot with the Dodgers but they evidently tried and failed to pass him through waivers in recent days. Atlanta transferred left-hander Max Fried to the 60-day injured list in order to open a 40-man roster spot for Williams. Additionally, righty Michael Soroka was also optioned to Gwinnett.
Williams, 26, was signed by the Dodgers to a minor league deal in the offseason. He was selected to their roster in mid-April but then optioned to Triple-A 10 days later. He got just 10 big league plate appearances in four games and hit .100/.100/.100 in those. He’s spent most of the season in Triple-A Oklahoma City, hitting .268/.364/.452 there for a wRC+ of 93. That indicates he’s been 7% below league average at the plate but he’s stolen 11 bases while playing shortstop, third base and left field this year. Previous seasons have seen him line up at every position except catcher, giving him plenty of defensive versatility.
That type of production generally aligns with his previous seasons. He now has 141 major league games on his ledger, spending time with the Phillies in 2021 and then the Giants and Marlins last year. Combined with his brief stint with the Dodgers this year, he has a career batting line of .234/.291/.306 and a wRC+ of 67. But he’s created value elsewhere by swiping 14 bags in 20 tries and bouncing all around the diamond to fill in as needed.
Atlanta was able to easily add Williams as a depth piece since they essentially had a roster spot to burn. Fried has been on the injured list since May 6 with a forearm strain and the plan was to shut him down completely until he healed before building him back up again. It’s now been about a month since that IL placement and he’s yet to get close to a return. As of two days ago, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the lefty was throwing but still hadn’t progressed to mound work. He will still need to get to that stage before likely throwing a few bullpens, maybe some live batting practice as well, before embarking on a rehab assignment for a few weeks to build up properly.
Given the time he’s still set to miss, it was inevitable that he’d get moved to the 60-day IL once the club wanted to use that roster spot on someone else. He will be officially eligible to return after 60 days from his initial IL placement, which was in early May. That means he could technically be activated in early July but that doesn’t seem especially likely given his current progress.
As for Soroka, he just returned to the big leagues for the first time in almost three years. He twice ruptured his Achilles tendon in the interim and battled some other lesser injuries in that time as well. He was finally healthy enough to get into a decent groove this year, making eight Triple-A starts with a 4.33 ERA. That led to a couple of outings in the big leagues, though he allowed nine earned runs through 9 2/3 innings in those. He wasn’t likely to be a permanent solution in the rotation anyway, as he will likely need to have his innings managed after so much missed time. He’ll now head back to the farm to continue that progression.
Another factor potentially leading to Soroka’s optioning is the emergence of prospect AJ Smith-Shawver. He was recently called up to the majors despite being just 20 years old and having barely 100 innings pitched in the minors thus far. He entered yesterday’s game out of the bullpen and tossed 2 1/3 scoreless innings. He struck out three, walked one and didn’t allow a hit while throwing 39 pitches. It’s possible that he’ll now get a chance to make a start or two, though the club hasn’t made any official announcements in that regard.