Dodgers To Sign Eddy Alvarez
The Dodgers have signed infielder Eddy Alvarez, as announced by Alvarez himself on his Instagram page. Due to the lockout, Alvarez’s contract must be a minor league deal, and he was eligible to sign since was already a minor league free agent at the start of the offseason.
Alvarez has already carved out a unique niche for himself in sports history as one of just six athletes to win medals in different sports at both the Summer and Winter Olympics. Alvarez won a silver medal as part of the Team USA baseball team this past summer in Tokyo, and he previously won a silver medal as part of the U.S. 5000m relay speed-skating team at the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi.
The Miami native returned to baseball following the end of his speed-skating career, and he spent five seasons in the White Sox farm system before joining his hometown Marlins prior to the 2019 season. Alvarez made it to the Show in each of the last two seasons, and he has a .188/.287/.287 slash line over 115 big league plate appearances with the Marlins.
Alvarez turns 32 later this month, and while he has had some hitting success at the Triple-A level, the age gap compared to other minor leaguers (not to mention the livelier ball used across Triple-A baseball in 2019) might explain his strong numbers. That said, a .279/.377/.447 slash line in 929 Triple-A plate appearances is no small feat, so it tracks that the Dodgers would want to take a look at Alvarez in Spring Training. He fits the Dodgers’ preferred model of versatile players, as Alvarez has quite a bit of experience as a second baseman, third baseman, and shortstop during his pro career.
Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
Now that the new year is upon us, it could also conceivably be the last year for several managers or lead front office executives (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, or whatever title a club bestows upon its top baseball decision-maker) in their current jobs if their teams don’t enjoy some success in 2022. With this in mind, here is the list of team personnel facing particular pressure — the managers and top execs who are entering the last guaranteed year of their contracts.
This list is by no means exhaustive. Firstly, some clubs don’t publicly disclose specifics of management contracts, or even whether or not an employee has signed an extension until weeks or months after the fact. It could be that some of the names mentioned are already locked up beyond 2022, or perhaps have already signed extensions in the last few weeks that won’t be made official until after the lockout. While transactions involving Major League players are prohibited during the lockout, teams are free to proceed with normal business involving team personnel, so some club might look to handle other internal matters in advance of the transactional avalanche that will come when the lockout finally ends.
Second of all, any number of factors beyond just contract status can influence an employee’s job status, and sometimes on-field success isn’t enough (just ask former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt). However, extra years on a contract is usually the simplest way to gauge just how much leeway a manager or front office boss has, barring something unforeseen. It’s probably safe to assume that most or all of the names listed wouldn’t mind a little extra job security, if for no other reason than to avoid a season of media questions about their future, or the perception of any “lame duck” status from their own players or staff.
Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contracts. Onto the list…
Angels: Owner Arte Moreno is a huge Joe Maddon fan, but since bringing Maddon back to the organization on a three-year, $12MM contract, the Halos have recorded two losing seasons. In fairness to Maddon, he has rarely gotten to deploy an Angels roster at the peak of its potential, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani (who barely pitched in 2020) have been injured or limited for large chunks of Maddon’s tenure. Since the veteran skipper turns 68 in February, there might also be some question about just how much longer Maddon himself wants to keep up with the grind of a regular-season schedule, especially after the challenges of managing a team through the pandemic. With the clock ticking on Ohtani’s team control and Trout’s prime, another losing season might inspire some changes in Anaheim.
Astros: Back in November, Dusty Baker received a one-year contract extension that takes the veteran skipper through the 2022 campaign. It isn’t the type of job security you’d expect for a manager who just took his team to a World Series appearance, but Houston appears content to go year-to-year with Baker, perhaps owing to his age (Baker turns 73 in June).
Athletics: Billy Beane has been running Oakland’s front office since 1997, and while the exact length of his current contract isn’t known, it is probably safe to assume Beane will have his job as long as he wishes. Beane withdrew his name from consideration from the Mets’ search when New York showed interest in Beane’s services this past fall, and for now, it seems as though he and GM David Forst are preparing to lead the A’s through yet another spin of the payroll-cutting “cycle” so familiar to Oakland fans. Since Beane also owns a minority share of the team, there would be an added layer of complication for the A’s in removing Beane if they did decide to make a change.
Blue Jays: Manager Charlie Montoyo was initially signed to a three-year deal with a club option for 2022, and the Jays exercised that option last March. The club might have been taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach by not negotiating any more additional years with Montoyo, but since Toronto won 91 games last season, Montoyo would now seem like a prime candidate for a longer-term deal. Montoyo has won praise both for the Blue Jays’ success over the last two seasons, and his steady leadership over a difficult period, with the pandemic forcing the Jays to play “home” games in Buffalo and Dunedin before finally returning to Toronto last July.
Brewers: David Stearns’ contract has been the subject of great speculation in recent months, as the Mets were focused on poaching the president of baseball operations away from Milwaukee. With Billy Eppler now inked to a four-year contract as the Mets’ new GM, it could be that Amazins could be moving away from Stearns, but several other teams might have interest if Stearns is indeed available anytime soon. The exact length or nature of Stearns’ contract isn’t known, as 2022 might be his last guaranteed year, but there may be a vesting option of some type in place that would keep Stearns with the Brew Crew through the 2023 season. For his own part, Stearns has said that he is happy with the Brewers, and owner Mark Attanasio obviously covets his PBO, as Attanasio has rejected all overtures from the Mets and other teams to interview Stearns. There seems to be plenty of leverage on Stearns’ part to either work out another extension with the Brewers, or perhaps wait out the remainder of his deal in Milwaukee and then test the market for a new challenge.
Cubs: 2022 is the last guaranteed year of David Ross‘ contract, though the Cubs have a club option for 2023. It has been a tumultuous two years to begin Ross’ managerial career, between the pandemic, a first-place NL Central finish in 2020, and then a 91-loss season in 2021 after the Cubs went all-in on a rebuild. However, the acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley are signs that Chicago is looking to compete next season, leaving Ross with the twin challenges of mentoring young talent and also winning some ballgames. Given the long relationship between Ross and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, it doesn’t seem like Ross’ job is in much jeopardy, and an extension (even if just an early call on that 2023 option) wouldn’t be a shock.
Diamondbacks: Manager Torey Lovullo spent much of the 2021 season as a lame duck before signing an extension in September that covers 2022 and also provides the D’Backs with a club option for 2023. Given how poorly the Diamondbacks have played over the last two seasons, this new deal gives the Snakes some flexibility to move on from Lovullo next fall, but obviously Lovullo wasn’t considered the reason for the team’s struggles. There is also some uncertainty about Mike Hazen’s contract status, as the GM signed new multi-year contract of undisclosed length back in 2019, extending Hazen beyond 2020 (the endpoint of his original deal). If Hazen’s contract is only guaranteed through 2022 and Arizona has another rough season next year, ownership might opt to replace both Hazen and Lovullo and start fresh.
Dodgers: 2022 is Dave Roberts‘ last year under contract, as his current deal doesn’t contain any team options. While Roberts’ postseason decision-making has sometimes been called into question by Los Angeles fans, he hardly bears sole responsibility, and it is also hard to argue with Roberts’ track record — a 542-329 record and a World Series title since taking the managerial job in November 2015. There hasn’t been any indication that the Dodgers are dissatisfied with Roberts’ work, so another extension could be in the pipeline.
Guardians: While Terry Francona isn’t under contract beyond 2022, but team owner Paul Dolan has said that “I feel like we’re now in a situation where he’s going to be here until he decides not to manage.” This puts the ball squarely in Francona’s court, as the veteran manager plans to return at least through next season after health problems limited his participation in both 2020 and 2021. Also, the contract details of president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti aren’t publicly known, but there hasn’t been any indication that Dolan is looking move on from the longtime executive.
Marlins: Don Mattingly’s 2022 club option was picked up over the summer, putting “Donnie Baseball” in line for what will be his seventh season managing the Fish. Much of that time has been spent overseeing a rebuilding team, but with Miami reaching the postseason in 2020 and now making some aggressive offseason moves, Mattingly and his staff will be facing some higher expectations. The Marlins could opt to let at least some of the season play out before deciding on Mattingly’s future, or if they’re confident that Mattingly is the one to lead the Fish into an era of winning baseball, they could have some talks about a longer-term deal this spring.
Orioles: Executive VP/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde are each entering their fourth season with the team. Hyde signed an extension last year that covers at least the 2022 season, while the initial length of Elias’ contract wasn’t known. Even if 2022 is the last season of Elias’ deal, it doesn’t seem like Orioles ownership would cut him loose before the results of the club’s extensive rebuild have been at all realized. The same could be said for Hyde, though it wouldn’t be the first time a rebuilding team has employed one manager to shepherd it through the tough years, and then hired another skipper when the club began to turn the corner towards contention.
Phillies: Joe Girardi is now entering the last guaranteed season of his initial three-year contract, and the Phillies hold a club option on the former World Series-winning manager for 2023. An 82-80 record represented Philadelphia’s first winning season since 2011, though it was still an underwhelming result for a team heavy in high-priced stars. Girardi himself hasn’t received much too much blame (at least by Philadelphia standards) for the Phils’ lack of success, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is on record as saying that Girardi “did a good job for us” last year. There are some parallels to Maddon’s situation, as both he and Girardi are veteran skippers under win-now pressure for big-market teams, except Girardi doesn’t have the longstanding ties to Phillies ownership as Maddon does in Anaheim. With the club option in mind, the Phils might see what 2022 entails before deciding on an extension for Girardi.
Pirates: This is a speculative entry, since the terms of Derek Shelton’s deal weren’t released when he was hired as Pittsburgh’s manager in November 2019. If Shelton was given a three-year contract (a pretty standard pact for a first-time manager), he’d now be entering his last guaranteed year. Since the Pirates are still rebuilding, Shelton isn’t under much pressure to start winning games immediately, so it doesn’t seem at this point like his job is in any danger.
Rangers: Another speculative case, as president of baseball operations Jon Daniels signed a contract extension back in June 2018, lengthening a deal that was set to expire at the end of the 2018 campaign. If that extension happened to be a four-year pact, then, Daniels has only one year remaining. While Daniels has spent much of his most recent contract rebuilding the roster, this winter’s massive spending splurge is a clear sign that Texas is ready to start winning. One would guess that ownership wouldn’t sign off on hundreds of millions in player contracts if they had any misgivings about keeping Daniels around, so another extension wouldn’t be a surprise. Daniels is quietly one of baseball’s longest-tenured front office bosses, as he has been running the Rangers’ baseball ops department since October 2005, when he was only 28 years old.
Rockies: Bud Black is entering his sixth and what might be his final year as Rockies manager, as his three-year contract expires at season’s end. New GM Bill Schmidt has indicated that the team might explore a new deal with Black, and since Schmidt is a longtime member of Colorado’s front office, the Rockies might not have the disconnect that sometimes exists between an incumbent skipper and a new front office boss who wants their own hire running the dugout. Even though owner Dick Monfort is known for his loyalty to familiar employees, managers don’t have quite as much slack — both Walt Weiss and Jim Tracy (Black’s predecessors) resigned from the Rockies’ managerial post after four seasons apiece.
Royals: Like Shelton, Mike Matheny was also hired following the 2019 season, so this would be the final guaranteed year of Matheny’s deal if he signed a three-year term. That said, Matheny might have gotten a longer deal, owing to his past experience as manager of the Cardinals, and due to his standing as something of a manager-in-waiting in Kansas City with Ned Yost on the verge of retirement. The Royals were aggressive last winter but managed only a 74-88 record in 2021, and if the team again doesn’t take a step forward, there could be some whispers about whether or not Matheny is the right choice for the manager’s job. Then again, president of baseball operations Dayton Moore has traditionally been big on institutional loyalty, so Matheny’s job isn’t necessarily on the line if the Royals don’t at least crack the .500 mark.
Twins: Manager Rocco Baldelli received a four-year contract with multiple club options when he was hired following the 2018 season, so Baldelli is now entering his final guaranteed year. The existence of those club options puts Baldelli under team control through at least 2024, yet while Baldelli isn’t a true lame duck, he does face some pressure in getting the Twins on track following a very disappointing season. If the Twins underachieve again, Baldelli might be on the hot seat, though he did lead Minnesota to the postseason in his first two years as skipper.
White Sox: Another team that doesn’t publicize management contracts, both executive VP Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn signed extensions in 2017 of unspecified length. Since that time, the duo has overseen a rebuild and a payroll increase that has thus far resulted in playoff appearances in both 2020 and 2021, though the White Sox have yet to win a series. Though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is definitely aiming to capture another championship, it seems like it would take a major collapse for him to think about replacing Williams or Hahn, who have each been with the franchise for decades. Depending on their contractual status, Williams and Hahn could even be in line for extensions, if such deals haven’t already quieted been inked.
Yankees: As any Bronx fan can tell you, the Yankees have gone 12 seasons without as much as an AL pennant, though the club has reached the playoffs nine times in that span and always posted winning records. Despite this relative title drought by Yankees standards, owner Hal Steinbrenner appears satisfied with the work done by longtime GM Brian Cashman, and there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a front office change. It may be quite a while before we hear whether or not Cashman is officially staying, as several of his contracts have been settled either around the end of the season, or sometimes well into the offseason. Cashman’s last deal (a five-year, $25MM contract covering the 2018-22 campaigns) wasn’t fully put into place until December 2017.
Pitching Notes: Scherzer, Matzek, Schmidt
A dead arm kept Max Scherzer from pitching in Game Six of the NLDS, which Scherzer believes was due to pitching fewer innings in the lead-up to the postseason. However, as the ace right-hander told Jorge Castillo of The Los Angeles Times, Scherzer doesn’t hold the Dodgers at fault for the situation, nor was the postseason a factor in his decision to sign with the Mets rather than return to Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers tried to limit their starters’ innings in order to keep them fresh for October, and Scherzer went into the playoffs assuming (and he told the club as much) that he was able to keep up the same workload as in 2019, when he helped lead the Nationals to the World Series. But, he and the Dodgers “never took that variable into consideration” of how pitching less heading into 2021 postseason would impact his arm.
“I bear more brunt of that because of me having those discussions with [manager Dave Roberts] about that, about how I can be used in the postseason and coming up short on that, on my end, of saying I can do something and then it didn’t happen,” Scherzer said. He also noted that his upcoming free agency didn’t weigh into his scratched start: “It’s literally my arm’s health. When you can’t throw, you can’t throw….Throwing in Game 6, I would’ve been rolling the dice on sustaining a substantial injury.”
More from other pitchers around the game…
- Tyler Matzek didn’t appear in a single big league game from 2016-19, as the southpaw found his career all but halted due to control issues and a case of the yips. It took a long time and a lot of work for Matzek to feel comfortable on and off the field, as The Ringer’s Jordan Ritter Conn details, but Matzek returned to become a strong contributor out of the Braves bullpen over the last two seasons, culminating in his role in Atlanta’s World Series title. While Matzek’s control issues haven’t entirely gone away (he has a 12.2% walk rate in 2020-21), he has posted a 2.64 ERA and 31.2% strikeout over 92 regular season innings, plus an excellent 1.48 ERA over 24 1/3 postseason frames.
- One of the Yankees‘ more prominent pitching prospects, Clarke Schmidt‘s big league career has been limited to 12 2/3 innings, due in large part to an elbow injury that sidelined him for much of 2021. “It just didn’t respond like we expected it to and it took forever for it to get right,” Schmidt tells The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler about his injury, an extensor strain that Schmidt described as “basically the same thing as tennis elbow.” Once finally recovered, Schmidt was able to pitch 38 innings of minor league ball and then 6 1/3 innings with the Yankees at the MLB level, and most importantly he says he is feeling healthy heading into the 2022 campaign. Some adjustments have already been made to his offseason training plan, however, as Schmidt feels that overwork led to last year’s injury. “I just pushed the gas pedal a little bit too much too early and I learned my lesson,” he said. It seems like that New York will start Schmidt in Triple-A to give him a bit more seasoning (he has only 25 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball under his belt), but for a Yankees club that can always use pitching depth, Schmidt could be an important arm to watch as the season proceeds.
Transaction Retrospection: The Pirates Take Roberto Clemente From The Dodgers In The Rule 5 Draft
Though the lockout prevented the Rule 5 Draft from taking place in its usual December timeslot, the R5 will happen at some point once the transactions freeze is over, thus continuing one of baseball’s oldest traditions. At a time when competitive balance is at the forefront of labor talks between the league and the MLBPA, the Rule 5 Draft has long served as a vehicle for players to gain opportunities on new teams, and to prevent clubs from hoarding young talent. While the specifics and procedures of the event changed greatly over the years, the Rule 5 Draft has existed in one form or another since 1892, becoming a staple of the offseason even if often overshadowed by bigger winter transactions featuring proven MLB stars.
And yet, the Rule 5 Draft tends to jump into the headlines whenever one of the picks ends up becoming a notable contributor to his new team. Last year’s draft, for example, was a particularly strong class that saw Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox), Akil Baddoo (Tigers), and Tyler Wells (Orioles) all deliver strong rookie seasons. Both the modern rules of the draft and the increased focus on prospect value make it less likely that a true superstar minor leaguer will slip through the cracks of the Rule 5, though that doesn’t stop teams from dreaming that just maybe, their next Rule 5 pick will end up being the next Roberto Clemente.
Like clockwork, Clemente’s name is inevitably mentioned every year around Rule 5 time, as the Pirates legend is certainly the most prominent player to ever be selected in the relative modern era of the R5. (Hall-of-Famers Christy Mathewson and Hack Wilson were also Rule 5 picks, though both players had already debuted in the majors prior to their selection.) Even in Clemente’s day, the Rule 5 Draft’s procedures were different than they are now, as Clemente was eligible to be selected due to his status as a “bonus baby.”
From 1947 to 1965, MLB had a rule in place stipulating that if any amateur player signed a contract with a bonus greater than $4K, that player had to remain on his team’s big league roster for two full seasons. If that player wasn’t on his new team’s active roster, he was eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft.
This is exactly what happened to Clemente, signed by the then-Brooklyn Dodgers in February 1954 at age 19. Signed for a $10K bonus and a $5K salary, that type of money in 1954 alone put Clemente on the radar of other teams, and international scouts were already well aware of Clemente’s potential. The Braves reportedly offered Clemente a much larger bonus, but he opted to stick with the Dodgers since he had already verbally agreed to their deal.
However, even with all of this known interest in Clemente, the Dodgers didn’t put him on their 25-man roster. Brooklyn had won the last two National League pennants, and with the team aiming to finally break through and win the World Series, the Dodgers felt they couldn’t afford to have an untested rookie filling a roster spot. Clemente was instead assigned to the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Montreal, as the Dodgers seemingly just crossed their fingers that they could sneak him through the Rule 5 field.
In a 2019 piece for The Athletic, Stephen J. Nesbitt unraveled some of the mythology surrounding Clemente’s brief Dodgers tenure. The popular version of the story is that Montreal tried to shield Clemente from rival scouts by limiting his playing time and benching him whenever he had a good game, or removing him from the lineup if he had a big hit early in a game. However, SABR researcher Stew Thornley noted that the right-handed hitting Clemente was almost never deployed against right-handed pitching, so a strict platoon could have been more to blame for Clemente’s lack of playing time than any attempt from the Dodgers to try and “hide” him.
Besides, while Clemente hit only .257/.286/.372 in his 155 plate appearances with Montreal, his raw ability was hard to miss. (Clemente was also on fire while playing winter ball in Puerto Rico around the time of the R5.) The Pirates took clear notice, and since they had the first pick of the 1954 Rule 5 Draft, Clemente was quickly Pittsburgh-bound that offseason. If the Dodgers’ strategy was indeed to just hope that other teams would ignore such a prominent prospect, the bet didn’t pay off.
As Nesbitt notes, longtime Dodgers GM Buzzie Bavasi has told a few different stories in regard to why or how Brooklyn lost Clemente, such as Pirates GM Branch Rickey backing out of a gentleman’s agreement to not take Clemente in the Rule 5 Draft. In another version, Bavasi claimed the Dodgers signed Clemente solely to keep him away from the arch-rival Giants, and eventually direct him via the R5 to an also-ran team. Bavasi also said in an e-mail to Thornley in 2005 that Jackie Robinson personally told the front office that adding Clemente to the team and removing a white player from the roster “would be setting our program back five years.”
All of Bavasi’s claims seem to only generate more questions than answers, and yet the end result was still Clemente in a Pirates uniform. In the short term, losing Clemente didn’t hurt the Dodgers, as the team continued being a perennial contender and won four World Series titles between 1955-65. As well, Clemente took some time to fully adjust to the majors, hitting a modest .289/.311/.395 with 26 home runs over his first five seasons and 2560 plate appearances with Pittsburgh.
Needless to say, however, Clemente is an awfully big “one that got away.” One can only imagine how much more successful the Dodgers would have been with Clemente in their lineup, especially after he broke out into true stardom. From 1960-72, Clemente hit .329/.375/.503 with 214 home runs while playing peerless right field defense and unleashing arguably the best outfield throwing arm in baseball history on many a hapless baserunner. If Bavasi did count on Clemente being suppressed on a losing team, that plan backfired — the Pirates ended becoming much more competitive during Clemente’s tenure, highlighted by World Series championships in both 1960 and 1971.
It could be that losing Clemente inspired the Dodgers to take a bit more care with their next “bonus baby” player. The next season, Brooklyn signed another promising youngster to a hefty $14K bonus and stuck with him on the MLB roster for the next two seasons. Like Clemente, it also took this player some time to become a star, yet the Dodgers’ patience more than paid off as Sandy Koufax started dominating batters.
Clemente’s legend perhaps looms largest on December 31, as it was on this day in 1972 that Clemente and three other passengers died during a plane crash off the coast of Puerto Rico. The flight was a relief mission intended to bring aid to Nicaragua following an earthquake, and Clemente wanted to personally supervise the delivery to ensure that the goods would reach their intended destination. Clemente was only 38 years old at the time of his tragic passing.
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers were once again a tier-one baseball club in 2021, but their streak of eight consecutive division titles came to an end, and their efforts to repeat were quashed in the NLCS.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Trevor Bauer, SP: $70.67MM through 2023
- David Price, SP/RP: $32MM in 2022
- Mookie Betts, OF: $337.5MM through 2032 (including $120MM in deferred payments from 2032 to 2044)
- Justin Turner, 3B: $22MM through 2022 (includes $2MM buyout on $16MM mutual option for 2023)
- Chris Taylor, IF/OF: $60MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout for $12MM team option for 2026)
- AJ Pollock, OF: $13MM (with a $10MM player options for 2023)
- Blake Treinen, RP: $9.5MM (includes $1.5MM buyout on $8MM team option for 2023)
- Max Muncy, 1B/2B: $14.5MM (includes $1.5MM buyout on $13.5MM team option for 2023)
- Andrew Heaney, SP: $8.5MM
- Daniel Hudson, RP: $7MM (includes $1MM buyout on $6.5MM team option for 2023)
- Walker Buehler, SP: $4.25MM (arb eligible again in 2023 and 2024)
- Tommy Kahnle, RP: $3.75MM
- Austin Barnes, C: $2.65MM
- 2022 commitments: $184.4MM
- Total long-term commitments: $585.32MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Trea Turner – $19.8MM
- Cody Bellinger – $16.1MM
- Julio Urias – $8.8MM
- Caleb Ferguson – $800K
Option Decisions
- Declined $12MM option for RHP Joe Kelly, opting instead to pay a $4MM buyout
- Bauer declined an option to trigger an opt-out clause
Free Agents
- Albert Pujols, Cole Hamels, Kenley Jansen, Danny Duffy, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Steven Souza Jr., Corey Seager, Corey Knebel, Andrew Vasquez (non-tendered), Jimmy Nelson, Sheldon Neuse (currently designated for assignment), Joe Kelly
The career talent present on the Dodgers’ list of departing free agents is somewhat remarkable. It’s also somewhat misleading, as Pujols, Kershaw, Duffy, Hamels, et al, aren’t exactly in their prime, nor were they inner circle contributors to the club in 2021. Kershaw did his part, contributing 22 starts with a solid, if not Kershawian 3.55 ERA/3.00 FIP across 121 2/3 innings. That places him third on the team in innings, so he did his par. That said, by the time the playoffs rolled around, his year was done.
Bottom line: there are significant losses represented on that list, most notably thus far, Seager, Scherzer, and to a lesser extent, Knebel. Seager seemed destined to walk after the acquisition of Trea Turner at the trade deadline, though without him they’ll be pressured to pony up for the speedy ex-National, who is a free agent after next season. President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman values flexibility in his roster construction, and that’s evident in his handling of Seager. We could see a similar saga play itself out next winter, as the Dodgers could turn to Gavin Lux and/or Jacob Amaya rather than commit to a mega-contract for Turner.
But that’s tomorrow’s problem. For now, Trea Turner, Lux, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy make up a star-studded, if injury-prone starting infield. The health and age questions surrounding this group made the re-signing of Chris Taylor all the more crucial. With Taylor back in the fold for a reasonable $15MM per, the Dodgers can feel relatively stable with their infield group. Matt Beaty and Zach McKinstry are bench options on the Major League roster, while Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts give manager Dave Roberts extended flexibility because of their ability and willingness to move to the dirt on occasion.
All that said, there’s still room for another bat. Assuming there will be a designated hitter in the National League, the Dodgers could add a third baseman while allowing J. Turner to age gracefully into a bat-only role. Barring the addition of one of the star level bats remaining in free agency (think Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Freddie Freeman), the Dodgers could still make a play for a veteran utility man, who wouldn’t have to play every day, but could capably pinch-hit and fill-in at multiple positions around the diamond. To their benefit, having T. Turner, Taylor, and Lux means they’re probably covered at shortstop, which frees Friedman to lean more liberally in the direction of a bench bat. Speculatively speaking, someone like Asdrubal Cabrera could be a fit, but they could also bring back Albert Pujols or look at other veteran minimum types while waiting for youngsters like Amaya, Michael Busch, or Miguel Vargas to play themselves into a role.
In the outfield, Betts, Bellinger, and AJ Pollock line up as the opening day starters, but they could absolutely look to add another bat here as well. Taylor and Lux can play the outfield, as can Beaty and others on the roster, but Friedman is more likely to have too many options than not enough. Don’t be surprised if there’s another name added to this mix after the lockout.
The big picture of the position player side of things is that they aren’t as deep as in years past, but they’re still in better shape than most. And yet, if they’re looking to grow the overall depth on this club, there are arguably more bats available in free agency than arms, so we could see the Dodgers overindulge on this side of the ball to compensate for the losses on the pitching side.
Because for the first time in years really, there are reasons to wonder about the overall quality of the Dodgers’ pitching staff.
The rotation is the biggest area of concern right now. After all, the two most surprising decisions from the Dodgers so far this winter both relate to the rotation. Not issuing a qualifying offer to Kershaw definitely zagged from expectations, as did their not making a bigger push to retain Scherzer. Kershaw could still return, but if not, the Dodgers’ rotation is thinner than it’s been in years. Losing Kershaw would be a bigger blow than it’s being perceived right now, in part because Kershaw’s “legacy value” took a big hit by not being anywhere near the mound during the playoffs, and even in the regular season, he fell from the divine heights of prior seasons. But let’s not diminish the man: He posted 2.1 rWAR/3.4 fWAR and finished 11th overall by FIP among pitchers with at least 100 innings. In fact, by FIP alone, the Dodgers would be losing the 10th (Scherzer) and 11th (Kershaw) starters in the Majors. Sure, they got just 33 starts from the pair, so we can almost count them as a single starter, but they make a darn good one that the Dodgers will miss.
Also on the positive side of the ledger, the Dodgers still have Walker Buehler and Julio Urias as a tremendous, in-their-prime duo. In fact, those two finished just behind Scherzer/Kershaw as 14th and 15th in the Majors by FIP. But the Dodgers had a front-row seat to the Padres’ horror-show second half. Two starters – even stars – is not enough to helm a postseason rotation.
If Kershaw does ultimately re-sign, I’ll give a ‘hear-hear’ – but if he doesn’t, they did, at least, strike quickly to add former Angels’ southpaw Andrew Heaney to the starting mix. Heaney struggled mightily after a deadline trade to the Yankees, but the Dodgers believe in his upside. Said Friedman, “He’s got really strong ingredients in place, and there are a few different levers we feel like we can potentially pull with him that he’s bought into and is eager to dive in on.” Despite his long-time reputation as a potential quality starter, Heaney’s 1.9 rWAR back in 2015 marked a career-high. Entering his age-31 season, it’s not impossible to imagine a re-brand in the mold of Wade Miley or, sure, dream big, Charlie Morton, but that’s a pipe dream – until it’s not.
Dustin May has a bright future, but he’s not due to return from Tommy John surgery until the second half of the season at the earliest. Tony Gonsolin slots in as the number four behind Heaney right now, but the 27-year-old hasn’t been trusted to hold down a regular rotation spot before, and solid as he’s been, the Dodgers clearly like him in a swing role. Fangraphs lists David Price as the fifth starter right now, and though the 36-year-old may very well end up in that role, it would be surprising if both Price and Gonsolin are among their starting five on opening day.
Rotation depth is more important now than ever, and though the Dodgers seem to have lost ground in the star power department, they did make a couple of low-key pickups during the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft that deepens their pool of potential arms. Carson Fulmer was once the eighth overall pick of the draft, and though it’s been a while since his mound work merited national attention, he is definitely worth a minor league contract. The same can be said for Jon Duplantier, who even more recently graced top prospect lists while coming up through the Diamondbacks’ system. Both are entering their age-28 season, an age at which Jake Arrieta still had a 5.23 career ERA. Neither Fulmer nor Duplantier has been even that good, but there’s no risk here for the Dodgers, and they need the depth.
They expressed some interest in the Reds’ available starters, but nothing came together before the lockout. That could still happen, or they could explore a deal for one or more of Oakland’s arms: Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, et al. Frankly, it was surprising that they didn’t make more of a push to bring back Scherzer. Still, even without a major addition, it’s worth remembering that the goal isn’t to build out a starting five – the goal is to build an organization capable of competing for 162 games.
It’s worth wondering if Scherzer’s contract just became too rich for Friedman’s tastes. On the one hand, that’s absurd, nothing and nobody should be too rich for the Dodgers. But practically speaking, the Dodgers ran out the highest payroll in baseball in 2021, and they might want to see how the now collective bargaining agreement changes luxury tax rules before barreling ahead into repeater tax territory. Fangraphs has their current 2022 payroll at ~$232MM, so their bed may already be made, but it’s only sensible to want the exact terms of the arrangement. Aside from the aforementioned Kershaw, most of the free agent starting pitching talent signed prior to the lockout. The Dodgers could still consider Carlos Rodon, whose health history is likely to lead to the type of shorter-term requirement the Dodgers prefer. Indeed, when the MLBTR staff was debating Rodon’s potential contract, they kicked around some kind of Bauer-lite high-dollar three-year arrangement.
Speaking of Bauer, last we saw of the divisive right-hander, he had been on extended administrative leave due to unresolved sexual assault allegations. As of now, it’s entirely unclear if he will be available to pitch in 2022 (or even if the Dodgers would welcome him back). MLB’s recent ruling on Marcell Ozuna‘s violation of the MLB – MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy suggests the league office is not yet ready to levy significant penalties for players whose criminal court cases are dropped.
Still, Bauer’s case is more public than perhaps any prior violation, and one would expect greater backlash upon his return to the field. So long as the Dodgers remain responsible for paying the $70MM+ still owed the right-hander, they would be hard-pressed not to allow him to suit up, especially given their need on the hill. If, however, they are somehow let out of their contractual obligation to Bauer, they could allocate that money elsewhere – though any replacement would most likely be a downgrade from Bauer’s significant on-field potential. Needless to say, the cloud of these proceedings will hang over the Dodgers for some time.
In the bullpen, Joe Kelly and Corey Knebel have been replaced by Daniel Hudson, while long-time closer Kenley Jansen remains a free agent. Blake Treinen was amazing last season (1.99 ERA/2.88 FIP across 72 1/3 innings), Hudson has plenty of high-leverage experience, and it’s easy to dream on Brusdar Graterol‘s potential, but the relief corps is very much a work-in-progress. After 12 years at the back of the Dodgers’ bullpen, the club may finally allow Jansen to walk away.
Whether they add starters, relievers, or the modern type of arm that can move between roles, they’re going to need more pitchers. They had 11 pitchers post more than half a win by fWAR in 2021, six of whom are either already gone or current free agents (Kershaw, Scherzer, Kelly, Nelson, Knebel, Jansen) and a seventh is Bauer. No need to panic: that’s a backward-looking approach, they can afford to print new jerseys, and the offseason isn’t over. But there’s work to be done.
In terms of the free agents available, Kershaw may be the best starter available, with Rodon and his checkered past also in the running. Other lesser names are available as well, perhaps led by Yusei Kikuchi. Many of the available free agent starters aren’t likely to ignite the fanbase, but the Dodgers have spun straw into gold before.
The relief market has a bit more juice with Jansen only one name among many that can be first division arms: Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Collin McHugh, Kelly, Nelson, and Adam Ottavino, to name a few. There’s still a chess move or two that the Dodgers could make without horribly overburdening their payroll.
Internally, Mitch White could find himself in a bigger role, Tommy Kahnle is coming back from Tommy John, and prospects like Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove aren’t far from seeing daylight (Grove is on the 40-man roster). There is some growth potential, but if nothing else, Buehler and Urias need to take over as the faces of Dodger pitching. Then again, it wouldn’t be hard to argue that they already are.
All told, while they await resolution on the Bauer and CBA fronts, the Dodgers had to charge ahead, thought they did so with a relatively quiet first half of the offseason. They made some minor additions, adding outfielder Jason Martin and right-hander Beau Burrows on minor league deals to build out their depth. But they also dealt away outfielders Billy McKinney and Zach Reks for cash considerations. Both had been designated for assignment as a means of being removed from the 40-man roster. Sheldon Neuse seemed like a classic Dodger project when he was acquired from the A’s, but he’s now in DFA purgatory until the lockout ends.
The Dodgers will be one of the more interesting teams to watch coming out of the lockout. Given their status as the top paying luxury tax team, the particulars of the new CBA could affect them more than any other club. Add in Bauer’s situation and Kershaw’s free agency, and the Dodgers are facing more uncertainty than they’ve seen in years. That said, their financial might is as great as ever, and even depleted by their free agent losses, they have one of the most talented rosters in the game. They also play in one of the most competitive divisions in the sport. With the Giants and Padres as formidable as ever, there’s no room to take a step back. After all, even with Betts, Buehler, Urias, the Turners, Taylor, Muncy, Bellinger, Will Smith, and more, the fact is, the Dodgers aren’t the champs anymore.
Dodgers Sign Tomas Telis To Minors Contract
The Dodgers signed catcher Tomas Telis to a minor league deal earlier this month, as per the team’s official MLB.com transactions page. Telis began the offseason as a minor league free agent, and is therefore eligible to sign during the lockout.
A veteran of five MLB seasons, Telis hit .230/.267/.298 over 267 plate appearances while playing with the Rangers and Marlins from 2013-18. He has spent the last three seasons in the Twins organization but hasn’t yet appeared in a big league game for Minnesota. Telis had his contract selected in April but was sent back down after a couple of days without seeing any action during his cup of coffee on the Twins’ active roster.
With Will Smith and Austin Barnes atop the Dodgers’ catching depth chart, Telis will provide some veteran depth in the minors, assuming he sticks with the club through Spring Training. While the 30-year-old Telis hasn’t hit much at the MLB level, he has some very strong numbers at the Triple-A level, with a .306/.349/.426 career slash line and 43 home runs in 2262 PA at the top rung of the minor league ladder. Telis’ production with Minnesota’s Triple-A club would likely have resulted in at least another look from most organizations, though the Twins’ own depth at catcher seemed to make Telis something of an afterthought.
Dodgers, Cody Bellinger Avoid Arbitration
Outfielder Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers have avoided arbitration, agreeing to a one-year $17MM contract per ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel. This deal registers as a $900K raise on the player’s 2021 season. The deal was reached prior to the sport’s December 1 lockout, but was not officially announced due to the league’s mandate that prevents clubs from discussing player personnel.
The $17MM salary is quite a boon for a player coming off a season that was below replacement-level, as Bellinger slashed just .160/.240/.302 in 95 injury-plagued games. The Dodgers could have non-tendered Bellinger instead of paying such a handsome fee for a hopeful bounceback campaign, but are one of the few clubs in the league who have the payroll to support such a risk. Further, Bellinger’s salary isn’t guaranteed until he makes the team’s Opening Day roster, meaning there’s still time for the team to backpedal if they lose faith in their decision.
It’s not long ago that non-tendering Cody Bellinger would’ve seemed preposterous, considering Bellinger set an arbitration record after his MVP 2019 season. That .305/.406/.629 campaign is slipping further into the past, but the Dodgers were surely encouraged by Bellinger’s .353/.436/.471 showing this past postseason. The former-MVP can be controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration.
Details On Luxury Tax Payments For Dodgers/Padres
As expected, the Dodgers and Padres are the two teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold this past season. The Associated Press reports that Los Angeles will pay $32.65MM in fees, while the Padres’ tax penalty lands at a more modest $1.29MM. No other teams exceeded the threshold in 2021.
Neither the Dodgers nor the Padres exceeded the threshold in 2020. Under the terms of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement, teams were only subject to escalating penalties for exceeding in consecutive years. Thus, both teams will be treated as first-time payors this offseason.
Teams are only subject to penalties on the dollars they spend above the threshold. The 2021 penalties for first-time payors checked in at 20% on every dollar between $210MM and $230MM, 32% on overages between $230MM and $250MM and 62.5% on each dollar spent above $250MM. CBT figures are calculated by summing the average annual values of all of a team’s player contracts (plus benefits), not by looking at a team’s actual payrolls in a given season.
As their hefty tax suggests, the Dodgers were by far the game’s biggest spender in 2021. Los Angeles’ final luxury tax number checked in at $285.6MM. (Their tax payment is calculated as the sum of $4MM on their overages between $210MM – $230MM, $6.4MM on their overages between $230MM – $250MM and $22.25MM on their overages above $250MM). The Dodgers flexed that financial might to build a star-studded roster that went to the NL Championship Series.
By exceeding $250MM, the Dodgers also accepted a minor hit in next year’s amateur draft. Teams that exceeded the highest tax threshold in the previous CBA saw their top choice moved back ten spots in the ensuing Rule 4 draft. Instead of picking 30th overall next season as originally scheduled, they’ll first select at pick No. 40.
While the Dodgers shattered the luxury mark, the Padres very narrowly exceeded the first threshold. Their final ledger checked in at $216.5MM, the highest mark in franchise history. San Diego’s financial cost for doing so is minuscule, but surpassing the threshold would be of more import were they to sign a free agent who has been tagged with a qualifying offer. Teams that pay any CBT penalties are subject to the highest levels of draft pick and international signing bonus forfeiture for signing qualified free agents. Exceeding the tax also reduces the compensation teams receive when one of their own qualified free agents signs elsewhere; this winter, the Dodgers received the lowest possible compensation (a pick after the fourth round) for watching Corey Seager depart.
As mentioned, the previous CBA contained escalating penalties for teams that exceeded the threshold in multiple consecutive years. It’s not clear whether that process will continue with the next CBA (or where the thresholds will land in the next CBA) but most high-revenue teams have occasionally determined to dip back under the threshold to “reset” their tax bracket and dodge escalating penalties.
That makes the Padres’ decision to narrowly exceed the threshold and potentially shoulder escalating penalties in future years a bit atypical. A handful of teams settled their spending limits just below the $210MM mark. According to the AP, each of the Phillies, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Astros ended with payrolls less than $5MM below the first tax threshold. They’ll each be first-time payors if they exceed that mark in 2022, with the Yankees and Astros resetting after exceeding the threshold in 2020. (The Cubs also exceeded the threshold in 2020 but didn’t come especially close to $210MM in 2021).
The AP also reports that overall spending on players took a step back. The combined tally of all thirty teams’ luxury tax payrolls this past season tallied $4.52 billion, down from the $4.71 billion teams spent in 2019. That’s not entirely surprising on the heels of a 2020 campaign with essentially no gate revenues, although it’s the lowest overall expenditures on players since 2016’s $4.51 billion.
Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents
Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order. For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.
Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings. First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.
For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks. The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.
- Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary. The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+. Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category. If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
- Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds. The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers. Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere. The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town. The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins). For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
- Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round. Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager‘s deal with the Rangers.
Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…
- Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021. As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
- Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021. For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection. For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft. Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
- Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents. Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
- Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.
Report: Yasiel Puig Faced Two Sexual Assault Allegations In 2017
Outfielder Yasiel Puig was accused of sexual assault by two women in January 2017, according to a report from Gus Garcia-Roberts of the Washington Post. Puig had also been accused of sexual assault in 2018, with those previously-reported allegations resulting in a civil action that was settled out of court this past October.
The Post report contains details on the disturbing set of allegations made against the then-Dodgers outfielder in 2017. One woman alleged Puig became violent during a sexual encounter. She reported the allegation to police — who photographed injuries she said resulted therefrom — but declined to pursue criminal charges. The other woman alleged that Puig attempted to force her to engage in various sexual acts without her consent, according to a letter from the woman’s attorney to Puig obtained by the Post. There is no indication the second woman reported the alleged assault to police.
Both women initiated civil actions against Puig which were confidentially settled out of court by April 2017. As part of both settlements, Puig denied the veracity of the allegations. His attorney tells the Post that Puig agreed to settle based on the advice of counsel at the time, citing the Cuba native’s “limited English abilities” as a factor in Puig’s decision to go along with that course of action. Puig’s agent, Lisette Carnet, told the Post she believes Latin American players are particularly susceptible to false allegations being made against them. She also claimed that players agreeing to confidential settlements with accusers of sexual assault is a common practice throughout MLB, one some agents consider “part of the business behind the game.”
Major League Baseball investigated both incidents in 2017, according to Garcia-Roberts, ultimately making the determination not to impose discipline. That decision was made “based on the evidence available to league investigators,” a league spokesperson told the Post. (MLB was permitted to speak with the women despite the respective settlements’ inclusion of non-disclosure agreements, per Garcia-Roberts, although it’s not clear whether they ever did so).
Puig continued to play that season while the league’s investigation was ongoing. That’s standard practice in instances where the allegations have not been made public, Garcia-Roberts notes. While the MLB – MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy gives the league the authority to place a player accused of a violation on paid administrative leave pending investigation, the Post writes that MLB has typically declined to do so unless the allegations are made public in some other way or unless they’re on the verge of imposing discipline.
Dodgers president Stan Kasten told the Post that he had “no recollection” of the allegations against Puig. Garcia-Roberts notes that the Joint Domestic Violence Policy contains a provision that limits the league’s ability to disclose information related to an investigation — even to the player’s team — to certain circumstances (i.e. for the imposition of discipline, in anticipation of a grievance, when needed to further potential mental health treatment for the player, etc.).
Puig played in Los Angeles through the end of the 2018 season. He split the 2019 campaign between the Reds and Indians. While he’d neared an agreement to sign with the Braves in 2020, that deal was scuttled after he tested positive for COVID-19. He didn’t play last year, then spent 2021 in the Mexican League. Last week, Puig signed with the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization. In recent months, the 31-year-old has continued to express a desire to eventually return to MLB.