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Marlins Not Expected To Trade Pablo Lopez

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4:57pm: Talks are not expected to result in a deal, Feinsand tweets. Lopez will remain a Marlin.

4:36pm: The Yankees are in talks with the Marlins on Lopez, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Dodgers, however, have dropped out of the bidding, per Feinsand.

Aug. 2, 4:12pm: The Dodgers “might” be making a late push to land Lopez, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, who adds that the asking price on the Miami right-hander remains quite high.

Aug. 1: Reports from earlier this week suggested the Marlins were “no longer dismissing calls” (in the words of Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald) about Pablo Lopez’s availability, and thus it isn’t surprising that the aggressive Dodgers have reached out.  Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that Lopez is among the many players the Dodgers have discussed as tomorrow’s trade deadline looms.

The Twins and Cardinals have also been linked to Lopez in trade rumors, and given Lopez’s value as both an immediate rotation boost and a longer-term answer, it’s probably safe to guess that just about every contender has checked in with Miami general manager Kim Ng.  Of course, since Lopez is controlled via arbitration through the 2024 season, he has a ton of value to the Marlins as well, particularly since Miami has enough talent on the roster that they’re surely aiming for a return to contention in 2023.

That means that if the Marlins did move Lopez, it would very likely be for players who are ready to contribute in the big leagues right away, as opposed to just intriguing prospects.  Since the asking price for Lopez is sure to be huge, not many teams could necessarily meet the Marlins’ demands….but the Dodgers could certainly be one of those clubs, given their deep farm system.

It was a little over five years ago that Lopez was dealt as part of a four-player package from the Mariners to the Marlins in exchange for David Phelps, a deal that ended up being a significant win for Miami.  After posting decent numbers over 31 starts in 2018-19, Lopez has quietly been one of the more effective starters in baseball, posting a 3.33 ERA, 48.1% grounder rate, 25.7% strikeout rate, and 6.9% walk rate over 278 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season.

A rotator cuff strain sidelined Lopez for most of the second half of the 2021 season, but he has rebounded with another strong performance this year.  An above-average strikeout pitcher, Lopez has posted the best whiff rate of his career, while also getting a lot of grounders and soft contact (even if his low barrel-rate numbers suggest that batters can really capitalize on the relatively few occasions they do connect).

Clayton Kershaw is only signed through the 2022 season, as the long-time Dodgers ace seems to be taking a season-by-season approach to the remainder of his career.  Beyond Kershaw, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney are scheduled for free agency this winter, so trading for Lopez would give Los Angeles another controllable arm to go along with Julio Urias (arb-controlled through 2023), Dustin May (2025), and Tony Gonsolin (2026).

Blue Jays Acquire Zach Pop And Anthony Bass From Marlins

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The Blue Jays have announced that they have acquired relievers Zach Pop, Anthony Bass and a player to be named later from the Marlins, who will receive prospect Jordan Groshans in return.

This will be the second stint with the Blue Jays for Bass, 34, who was with them in the shortened 2020 season. That year, Bass threw 25 2/3 innings out of the Toronto bullpen, putting up an ERA of 3.51 along with a 62.3% ground ball rate, 21% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.

He reached free agency at the end of that campaign and signed with the Marlins on a two-year deal with a club option for 2023. In the first year of that deal, he put up fairly similar numbers to 2020, but he’s found another gear this year. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently, Bass has started throwing his slider more this season and found excellent results. In 44 2/3 frames this year, he has a miniscule 1.41 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate that’s a career high. He’s also only walking 5.8% of batters faced, which is well below league average. He’s making a $3MM salary this year, with around $1MM left to be paid out, and has a $3MM club option for next year. By picking him up, the Blue Jays are adding a veteran that they know, having a career year on an affordable contract.

Pop, on the other hand, is just 25 years old, turning 26 next month. He was originally drafted by the Dodgers but went to the Orioles in the Manny Machado trade. In the 2020 Rule 5 draft, he was selected by the Diamondbacks, who flipped him to the Marlins. A ground ball specialist, Pop stuck with the Marlins for the entire 2021 season, throwing 54 2/3 innings out of their bullpen with a 4.12 ERA, 57.6% ground ball rate, 20.7% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate.

Here in 2022, he’s been bounced between Triple-A and the big leagues throughout the year, having been optioned and recalled three times. In his 20 MLB innings, he has a 3.60 ERA, 63.1% ground ball rate, 16.9% strikeout rate and 2.4% walk rate. In 24 1/3 innings at Triple-A, he’s posted fairly similar results, albeit with a few more walks. He logged a full year of service time last year but will fall short of the two-year mark this season because of that time spent in the minors. That means the Jays will be able to keep him around for five more seasons beyond this one, with Pop also capable of being optioned between the majors and the minors in the future. He comes with less of a track record than Bass but is cheap and controllable.

For the Marlins, they floated around the playoff race but have fallen off in recent weeks, currently 47-56 and 8 1/2 games out of a postseason spot. They are using some of their bullpen pieces to acquire Groshans, a prospect with strong pedigree but disappointing results this year. Selected by the Jays with the 12th overall pick in the 2018 draft, he was considered one of the top 100 prospects in the sport by Baseball America from 2019 to 2021. He was limited by injuries to just 23 games in 2019 and then saw the minor league wiped out in 2020.

He got back into a groove with a fine season in 2021, hitting seven home runs and slashing .291/.367/.450 in 75 Double-A games. However, this year has been a downturn, with Groshans struggling at Triple-A. He’s always had a good approach at the plate, walking almost as much as he strikes out, and that’s still true this year. His 12.5% walk rate and 16.5% strikeout rate are both much better than average, but he’s shown absolutely no power production on the season. He has one home run in 279 plate appearances on the season, leading to a tepid slash line of .250/.348/.296, wRC+ of 82.

For Miami, they are surely hoping that Groshans’ will eventually tap into more power to combine with his keen eye and bat-to-ball skills. He’s only 22 years old and could certainly still find another gear in that department. Groshans had played mostly shortstop thus far in his career but has gradually spent more time at third, with many prospect evaluators expecting him to eventually settle in at the hot corner. If that is indeed the case, he will certainly need to tap into more power in order to be a viable big league third baseman.

For the Blue Jays, they’ve added a couple of interesting pieces to a middling bullpen as they gear up for a stretch run. For the struggling Marlins, they’ve bought low on a prospect that was once considered one of the best in the game, hoping to find some value for the future.

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet was the first to report a deal involving Pop and Groshans. Craig Mish of Sportsgrid was the first to report that Anthony Bass was also heading to the Jays. Jon Heyman of the New York Post relayed that the Jays would also get a smaller piece, which Davidi relayed as a player to be named later.

Marlins Reinstate Jesus Luzardo, Designate Jake Fishman, Select Aneurys Zabala

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5:00pm: The Marlins later announced further moves to reporters, including Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. Righty Aneurys Zabala has had his contract selected, with Jordan Holloway being transferred to the 60-day IL in order to make room on the roster. Holloway was placed on the IL a few days ago with an elbow impingement and evidently isn’t expected back in the next couple of months. Today’s placement puts the rest of his season in jeopardy. Zabala made his MLB debut earlier this year, logging two thirds of an inning.

2:55pm: The Marlins have announced to reporters, including Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase, a couple of roster moves. Left-hander Jesus Luzardo has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list, while fellow lefty Jake Fishman has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Luzardo, 24, was acquired from the Athletics in last year’s Starling Marte trade. Baseball America considered him one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball in both 2019 and 2020 but he struggled in 2021. Between the two clubs, he put up a 6.61 ERA last year, but nonetheless was expected to carry a rotation spot for the Marlins here in 2022.

He was able to make six starts early in the season, which came with both encouraging and discouraging results. His 34.5% strikeout rate was excellent, but it came with a very high 13.4% walk rate. He was sitting on a 4.03 ERA through 29 innings when he landed on the shelf due to a forearm strain. He now returns after over two months out of action.

The Marlins came into the season expecting for their rotation to be a strength, but injuries have taken a toll on that plan. Even with Luzardo now off the IL, the club still has Edward Cabrera, Daniel Castano, Trevor Rogers and Max Meyer on the shelf, with Meyer set to undergo Tommy John surgery and likely miss much of 2023 as well. Luzardo will jump into the mix next to Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Nick Neidert and Braxton Garrett.

As for the appropriately-named Fishman, the Marlins just selected him to the club a few days ago but have now thrown him back. The 27-year-old got into one MLB game, making his debut, logging 3 1/3 frames before losing his roster spot. In 43 1/3 Triple-A innings this year, he put up a 1.87 ERA with a 54.3% ground ball rate, 24.4% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. Given that strong showing, he’s likely to garner interest from other clubs, especially because lefties are always in demand.

Marlins’ Bullpen Generating Trade Interest

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Just as Detroit will be receiving interest in a huge chunk of its bullpen, Miami figures to have several relievers on the block. Longtime Marlins beat writer Joe Frisaro tweets that the Fish have gotten interest on lefties Tanner Scott and Steven Okert as well as right-handers Dylan Floro and Anthony Bass.

The 28-year-old Scott surely has the highest price tag, as he’s leading the club with 14 saves and has long tantalized scouts with a blistering fastball and power slider, dating back to his time in Baltimore. He’s averaged 96.8 mph on that heater this season and ramped up the usage of his slider to a career-high 66%. The result is a career-best 31.8% strikeout rate, a huge 15.3% swinging-strike rate and a 31.3% chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone.

Scott’s command — or lack thereof — is the elephant in the room. The southpaw has walked 15.3% of his opponents this season, plunked three hitters and tossed a pair of wild pitches. That’s been par for the course throughout Scott’s career, evidenced by a bloated 14% walk rate. Were Scott’s command even average or just slightly below-average, his overpowering fastball/slider blend could make him one of the sport’s most dominant relievers. That hasn’t been the case, however, which is surely why the Marlins were able to acquire both Scott and Cole Sulser from the Orioles this past offseason in exchange for a Competitive Balance draft pick (Round B) and a pair of low-level minor leaguers.

It was still a surprising return for a player with Scott’s stuff, particularly given that he’s controlled through the 2024 season. That remaining control will obviously appeal to clubs but also make the asking price on him fairly steep. The Marlins are known to be looking for immediate offensive upgrades in trade returns, and Scott’s two-plus seasons of control could embolden them to do so when teams call about the power-armed lefty.

Okert, meanwhile, has been a great find for the Fish. The 31-year-old signed a minor league deal after spending nine years in the Giants organization and never establishing himself in their bullpen. He’s been great in Miami dating back to 2021 however, working to a combined 2.74 ERA, 29.3% strikeout rate  and 10.9% walk rate. Okert doesn’t have Scott’s power stuff and has also been homer-prone, but the late nature of his breakout means he can be controlled another five seasons.

Both Floro and Bass are closer to free agency and, as such, seem likelier to change hands. The 31-year-old Floro is earning $3MM this season and has pitched to a 3.49 ERA with a below-average 17.7% strikeout rate but strong walk and ground-ball rates (5.3% and 50%, respectively). He’s excelled at keeping the ball in the yard throughout his career with the Rays, Cubs, Dodgers and now Marlins, yielding just 0.5 homers per nine frames.

Floro isn’t without red flags, though. He’s never been an especially hard thrower but has seen his average heater drop from 93.8 mph in 2021 to 91.8 mph in 2022. And after posting one of the lowest hard-hit rates in the Majors from 2016-21 (31.5%), he’s yielded a 41.4% hard-hit rate this season along with a career-high 88.7 mph average exit velocity (the latter of which is right in line with the league average, to be fair).

Of the whole group, Bass seems the best bet to go. The 34-year-old signed a two-year, $5MM contract with Miami prior to the 2021 season and posted a solid but unremarkable 3.82 ERA through 61 1/3 innings in his first season in South Florida. This year, however, Bass is toting a pristine 1.41 ERA with a career-high 26% strikeout rate and a very strong 5.8% walk rate. Like Scott, he’s throwing his slider at a career-high rate (56%) and has enjoyed terrific results thanks to the change.

Bass is also controlled for the 2023 season by virtue of an eminently reasonable $3MM club option. That could be good reason for the Marlins to hang onto him, as they’re intent on competing in the near future, but there’s some risk in hanging onto a reliever for what would be his age-35 season as well.

Any of the relievers here could make sense as trade candidates on their own, but it’s also intriguing to think about the possibility of them being packaged as part of a larger deal. Pairing any of the four together would be appealing for a contender seeking bullpen help (which applies to pretty much every contender), and the Marlins could also add a bullpen arm to a package if they’re trying to coax out an even bigger return for a pitcher such as Pablo Lopez, on whom they’re reportedly at least listening to offers.

Marlins Designate Jimmy Yacabonis For Assignment

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The Marlins have selected the contract of righty Nick Neidert and designated fellow right-hander Jimmy Yacabonis for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster, per the team. A 26-man roster spot was opened by placing lefty Daniel Castano on the seven-day concussion-related injured list.  Miami also announced that Garrett Cooper (who is on the 10-day injured list due to a minor wrist injury) is beginning a minor league rehab assignment today.

Yacabonis inked a minor league deal with the Marlins just after the lockout ended, and after his contract was selected in June, the righty posted a 6.75 ERA over 9 1/3 innings in a Marlins uniform.  It marked Yacabonis’ first MLB action since the 2020 season, as he spent last year in the Mariners organization but didn’t take the hill for the big league club.

Since Yacabonis is out of minor league options, Miami had to turn to the DFA route to remove him from the active roster.  With only a 5.80 ERA to show for 113 1/3 career frames in the majors, Yacabonis doesn’t jump out as an obvious candidate to be claimed, as the right-hander has been plagued by walks and home runs throughout his time in the Show.  That said, Yacabonis’ strikeout rate in both the majors and minors this season is far and away his career best, so another club could be intrigued by this seeming newfound ability to miss bats.  Free agency is also a possibility rather than a DFA claim, as since Yacabonis has been outrighted previously in his career, he has the ability to reject an outright assignment and become a free agent.

Neidert was himself outrighted off the 40-man roster after the Marlins designated him for assignment back in April, and he’ll now be in line for his first Major League appearance of the 2022 season, starting today’s game against the Mets.  With Castano, Trevor Rogers, and Max Meyer all being lost to the injured list within the last week, Neidert will step into the rotation and get an opportunity to carve a niche for himself in a pitching-deep organization.

Neidert has seen action in each of the previous two MLB seasons, with a 4.70 ERA over 44 innings (starting seven of 12 career games).  Originally acquired by Miami as part of the trade that sent Dee Strange-Gordon to the Mariners back in 2017, Neidert has posted some solid numbers at the Triple-A level, relying on strong control and soft contact moreso than a lot of strikeouts.  That said, Neidert’s 27.2% strikeout rate over 40 innings at Triple-A Jacksonville this season is the highest of his career.

Marlins Place Trevor Rogers On Injured List, Designate Willians Astudillo

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The Marlins have made a handful of moves in advance of tonight’s series opener with the Mets (relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Starter Trevor Rogers has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 26, with lower back spasms. Miami also selected reliever Jake Fishman and infielder Charles Leblanc onto the big league roster, designating Willians Astudillo for assignment. To clear a second 40-man roster spot, the Marlins transferred Max Meyer from the 15-day to the 60-day IL. That was a formality, as the top prospect is set to undergo Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the next year-plus.

Rogers had been slated to start tomorrow, but the Marlins will obviously have to find a replacement. The IL stint is the latest in what has been a frustrating season for the southpaw, who looked to have broken out as one of the game’s top young pitchers a year ago. Rogers pitched to a 2.64 ERA and earned an All-Star nod in 2021, but he’s gone in the opposite direction this season. He owns just a 5.85 ERA through 87 2/3 innings, watching his strikeout rate plummet from 28.5% to 20.8% in the process.

Astudillo has bounced on and off the roster a couple times this season. The former Twins utilityman signed a minor league deal with Miami over the winter, and he’s posted an excellent .321/.364/.557 showing through 33 Triple-A contests. Astudillo, owner of perhaps the sport’s best bat-to-ball skills, has only gone down on strikes in 4.3% of his minor league plate appearances, but he’s not made much of an impact in 21 MLB contests. Despite fanning in just three of his 55 trips to the dish, he owns a meager .241/.255/.296 showing with one homer and a 1.8% walk rate.

The Marlins will presumably again place Astudillo on waivers over the next few days. He’s already passed through the wire unclaimed this year and accepted an outright assignment to their top affiliate in Jacksonville. It’s possible he eventually winds up back with the Jumbo Shrimp, but he’d again have the right to elect minor league free agency if he goes unclaimed.

Leblanc and the aptly-named Fishman are each joining the Marlins for what’ll be their major league debuts. The former is a 26-year-old infielder who was a fourth-round draftee of the Rangers out of the University of Pittsburgh back in 2016. Leblanc spent six years in the Texas system, mostly splitting his time between second and third base, before signing a minor league deal with Miami last offseason. The right-handed hitter has impressed over 360 plate appearances in Jacksonville, hitting .302/.381/.503 with 14 home runs. Leblanc’s 27.2% strikeout rate is higher than ideal, but he’s done enough from a power perspective to get an MLB call.

Fishman, 27, also entered pro ball in that 2016 draft. He fell to the 30th round, where the Blue Jays selected the Union College product. Fishman briefly reached Triple-A in the Toronto system before qualifying for minor league free agency during the 2020-21 offseason. He’s spent the past two years working as a multi-inning reliever in Jacksonville. This season, the southpaw has an excellent 1.87 ERA with a robust 54.3% ground-ball rate across 43 1/3 innings, posting roughly average strikeout and walk rates (24.4% and 9.1%, respectively).

Cardinals, Twins Have Spoken To Marlins About Pablo Lopez

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The Cardinals are “intent on upgrading the rotation, not just spackling it,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports in a comprehensive look at the team’s potential deadline trajectories. While past deadline trades have often brought stopgaps options to St. Louis (e.g. Jon Lester and J.A. Happ just last year), the Cardinals could aim a bit higher this time around. Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas and Marlins righty Pablo Lopez are among the starters in whom the Cards have expressed interest, per the report. Goold also lists Angels right-hander Noah Syndergaard as a name of interest, and there are surely others the Cardinals are considering as they look to offset injuries to Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Alex Reyes and Dakota Hudson (who has struggled even when healthy this season).

  • As for the Twins, 1500 SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson suggested in yesterday’s podcast that Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle could be the likeliest name to land in Minnesota by Tuesday’s deadline, though the Twins are casting a wide net as they seek both rotation and bullpen help. Minnesota has also spoken to the Marlins about righty Pablo Lopez, Wolfson added.

Max Meyer To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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An already disappointing Marlins season took a turn for the worse Thursday, as MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola tweets that an MRI revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament in top pitching prospect Max Meyer’s right elbow. He’ll undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future and miss the remainder of the 2022 campaign as well as the bulk of the 2023 season.

Meyer, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft, skyrocketed through the Marlins’ system and made his debut earlier this month, yielding five runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. His next outing lasted just two-thirds of an inning before he exited due to elbow discomfort that sent him to the injured list. He’ll now spend the remainder of the season and the majority of the 2023 campaign on the Major League injured list, accumulating MLB service time and pay for the time spent rehabbing.

Prior to that rocky big league debut and subsequent injury, Meyer was universally regarded as one of the sport’s brightest pitching prospects. The former University of Minnesota ace breezed through Double-A last season and was even better in a 10-inning look at Triple-A last year, logging a combined 2.27 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate against a 9.2% walk rate in 111 innings.

The 23-year-old Meyer roared out of the gates in 2022, logging a 1.72 ERA and 39-to-9 K/BB ratio in his first 31 1/3 innings, overpowering opponents with an upper-90s heater and devastating slider along the way. He struggled through a pair of awful outings in late May with Triple-A Jacksonville, however, ultimately going on the minor league injured list due to what the team termed irritation of the ulnar nerve in his right forearm. He came back strong — 2.11 ERA over his next five starts — and looked to be back on track for this month’s big league debut.

Whether Meyer had a tear prior to his big league promotion or didn’t sustain the tear until one of his two MLB outings, he’ll now be sidelined for the next year-plus. A return late in the 2023 season remains plausible, but that’s hardly a given. Every recovery is different, of course, but pitchers often take closer to 13 or 14 months to return from Tommy John surgery. For instance, we’re about one year to the day removed from Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull undergoing his own Tommy John procedure, and the organization just recently announced that Turnbull won’t return this season. If the Marlins are in contention in 2023, perhaps they’d push the envelope and take some risk to get Meyer back as a bullpen option late in the year, but they have every reason to be cautious with the flamethrowing righty, given how important a role he could play in their future.

Meyer joins fellow top prospects Edward Cabrera (elbow tendinitis), Sixto Sanchez (2021 surgery for torn anterior capsule in his shoulder) and Jake Eder (2021 Tommy John surgery) on the injured list. Miami has also seen 2021 Rookie of the Year candidate Trevor Rogers take a massive step back in his sophomore season. It’s all a good reminder — particularly at a time of year when fans and teams alike are wary of trading minor league pitching — that as easy as it is to dream on touted young arms , the attrition rate of pitching prospects is an unyielding roadblock that teams perennially struggle to navigate.

Astros’ Jose Siri Drawing Trade Interest

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The Astros are receiving trade interest in outfielder Jose Siri, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who adds that “a number of teams” have explored trading for the 27-year-old. Each of the Phillies, Marlins and Brewers have been seeking center field help, Rosenthal notes, though he doesn’t explicitly indicate that any of the three have had substantive talks with Houston.

Interest in Siri comes from other clubs at a time when the Astros are apparently seeking more proven options in center field, but it’s plenty understandable if other clubs would look at Siri’s strong MLB debut in 2021 and his outstanding Triple-A track record and hope he can emerge as a valuable long-term piece if they can land him in a deal with Houston. While he’s something of a late bloomer, having turned 27 just six days ago, Siri hit .304/.347/.609 with four homers and three steals in a tiny sample of 49 plate appearances during last year’s MLB debut. This season, he struggled to a .178/.238/.304 slash in a larger (but still relatively small) sample of 147 trips to the plate.

Houston has twice optioned Siri to Triple-A Sugar Land this season (most recently one week ago), and in the 13 games he’s played there, he’s ripped eight home runs and batted .293/.354/.828 in 65 plate appearances. That eye-popping production from the right-handed-hitting slugger is further backed up by a huge .318/.369/.553 slash through 394 plate appearances with Houston’s top affiliate last season. Overall, he’s played in 107 games and tallied 462 plate appearances with the Astros’ Triple-A club, crushing 24 homers and swiping 25 bags in that time. Siri also posted through-the-roof defensive numbers in 315 innings of center field work for Houston this season: 8 Defensive Runs Saved, a 6.6 Ultimate Zone Rating and 7 Outs Above Average.

While that combination of minor league production and exceptional defensive grades at the big league level is quite appealing, Siri’s strikeout woes are the proverbial elephant in the room. He’s had issues making contact since reaching the Double-A level with Cincinnati back in 2018. Siri punched out in 32.2% of his plate appearances that season and has continued to whiff in more than 30% of his plate appearances at nearly every stop since. He’s fanned “just” 16 times in Triple-A this year (24.6%), but Siri has fallen victim to a strikeout in one-third of his MLB plate appearances and in 30.9% of his total Triple-A plate appearances.

There’s extra reason for the Astros to consider offers on Siri, given that he’s in his final minor league option season. As a win-now club, Houston understandably seeks an immediate contributor in center, and while it’s tempting to say they should be patient with Siri given the power/speed/defense blend, he’ll have to be carried on the Major League roster next year or else be exposed to waivers. Considering his raw tools and Triple-A production (and the current trade interest), it’s quite likely he’d be claimed by another team if things were to reach that point, so extracting some value for Siri right now makes sense if the Astros can find a deal to their liking.

Siri has not yet accrued even one year of Major League service, though if he spends enough time on a big league roster down the stretch, he could still get there. Even if he does reach that point, he could still be controlled another five years beyond the current campaign (or six more if he spends another 17 days in the minors this year).

Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

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The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently —  and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

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