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Health Notes: Paxton, Rays, Phils, Reds, Cards

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Yankees southpaw James Paxton will go the next couple days without throwing after feeling soreness following Wednesday’s session, manager Aaron Boone told WFAN (via Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News). It’s unclear how much longer Paxton will be sidelined from the flexor strain that sent him to the IL on Aug. 21, but as Ackert notes, time is running out for him to return – at least to the Yankees’ rotation – during the regular season. Paxton’s problems, both in terms of injury and performance, are among the reasons the Yankees’ starting staff has disappointed this year. Although the 31-year-old dealt with his share of injuries in prior seasons, he typically fared well when healthy. In 2020, though, Paxton has stumbled to a 6.64 ERA over five starts and 20 1/3 innings.

  • Rays manager Kevin Cash hasn’t ruled out regular-season returns for third baseman Yandy Diaz or catcher Mike Zunino, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Diaz went to the IL on Sept. 1 with a right hamstring strain, while Zunino has been down since Aug. 29 with a strained oblique. Diaz has been a major on-base threat with a .307/.427/.386 line in 138 plate appearances, whereas Zunino has gone through a second straight horrible season on offense (.133/.235/.383 with 29 strikeouts in 68 PA).
  • The Phillies expect outfielder/designated hitter Jay Bruce to return this month, Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer relays. Bruce has been on the IL twice with quad problems going back to August, and his most recent placement came Sept. 6. He was a good power source before then with a .225/.276/.578 line and six home runs in 76 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Philly’s hopeful that left-handed reliever Jose Alvarez will make it back if they earn a playoff spot. Alvarez threw 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball before taking a 105 mph line drive off the groin on Aug. 20.
  • Reds left-hander Wade Miley “took a step back today” in his recovery from shoulder troubles, manager David Bell announced (Twitter links via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). Consequently, the Reds don’t expect Miley back this weekend. He last took the mound Aug. 27. The news is better for outfielder Nick Senzel, who Bell said is “pretty close” to coming back. Senzel hasn’t played since Aug. 14, but the Reds haven’t disclosed a reason for his absence.
  • Cardinals righty Johan Oviedo is in COVID-19 quarantine, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Oviedo hasn’t tested positive for the illness, but he was exposed to someone who did. As a result, the Cardinals – whose season was halted for a couple weeks last month because of the virus – are taking a cautious approach. They placed Oviedo on the IL on Thursday. It seems righty Carlos Martinez will take over in the Cardinals’ rotation for Oviedo, a 22-year-old rookie who has put up a 4.66 ERA/4.26 FIP in his first four starts and 19 1/3 innings in the bigs.

Jalen Beeks To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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The Rays received a slew on unfortunate injury news this afternoon, with Juan Toribio of MLB.com reporting that left-hander Jalen Beeks is set to undergo Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. Fellow reliever Chaz Roe will also have his season cut short, with the Rays transferring him to the 45-day injured list. Finally, two new players have hit the injured list: catcher Mike Zunino and lefty Ryan Yarbrough will head to the 10-day IL, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

Catcher Kevan Smith and 1B/OF Brian O’Grady have been added to the active roster.

Wit Beeks on the 45-day injured list, we’ve known that his season was over, but the Rays were awaiting word of the severity of Beeks’s injury, which was first reported as an elbow sprain. Thus continues the Rays’ plague of injuries, which have gutted the pitching staff to an alarming extent.

Yonny Chirinos, Colin Poche, Brendan McKay, and Andrew Kittredge have already endured season-ending injuries, with Charlie Morton, Jose Alvarado, Nick Anderson, and others spending time on the injured list.

Beeks, for his part, had been enjoying his best Major League season to date, on pace for career bests in virtually every significant category. After averaging 7.6 K/9 over the last two years, that number climbed up to 12.1 K/9 through 19 1/3 innings this year. Simultaneously, his walk rate plummeted to a career low, leading to a minuscule 1.76 FIP.

His loss will be a considerable blow to the already-thin Tampa bullpen, which now finds itself without Chaz Roe for the season—also due to an elbow issue. Zunino, meanwhile, is dealing with oblique pain, and Yarbrough is experiencing left groin tightness. He’s the eleventh Rays pitcher to be sidelined due to injury since the beginning of Spring Training 2.0.

The Rays Need More From Their Starting Catcher

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We just delved into the struggles Mariners outfielder Mallex Smith endured during his first season in Seattle after a trade with Tampa Bay. He and catcher Mike Zunino were the headliners in the five-player deal when it went down in November 2018, but the latter may have been even worse last season.

Zunino, who turned 29 in March, joined the pros as the third overall pick of the Mariners in 2012. Has he lived up to that selection? It depends on the year. Zunino has totaled anywhere from 2.1 to 4.6 fWAR on three occasions since he debuted the year after the Mariners drafted him, but the lows have been rather low. He didn’t produce much in 2015 or last season. In fact, Zunino was among the least valuable hitters in the sport a year ago.

In his first season in Tampa Bay, Zunino limped to a .165/.232/.312 line in 90 games and 289 plate appearances. Out of 320 players who amassed at least 250 trips to the plate, Zunino ranked dead last in wRC+ (45) and eighth from the bottom in strikeout percentage (33.9). Strikeouts are simply part of the package when it comes to Zunino, who has fanned 34.2 percent of the time in his career, but that doesn’t mean he has always been unplayable as a hitter. Sure, with a lifetime slash of .202/.271/.395, Zunino’s not exactly Johnny Bench, but he has already piled up 104 home runs and recorded an 83 wRC+ (the latter figure’s not good, but when combined with his strong defense, it has been enough to make him a regular).

So what happened to Zunino in 2019? For one, he stopped hitting the ball hard. Just three years ago – the best season of his career – Zunino ranked in the top 10 percent of the majors in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, average exit velocity and expected weighted on-base average on contact, according to Statcast. Zunino posted a useful .355 wOBA/.332 xwOBA that year, but he could only muster .235/.271 in those categories last season. As shown in Statcast’s data, compared to his career year, he’s chasing too many pitches outside of the strike zone and going to the opposite field quite a bit more. Considering Zunino’s only real use at the plate is to hit for power, it’s no surprise those developments have minimized his impact. He totaled just nine home runs last season and logged one of the worst ISOs of his career (.147).

If there’s any good news, it’s that Zunino remains a defensive asset. He threw out 39 percent of would-be base stealers last season (the league-average mark was 27 percent) and ranked 10th out of all backstops in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. That was enough for the Rays to stick with Zunino, whom they’ll pay $4.5MM this year. But if Zunino doesn’t take steps forward on offense in 2o2o, it could have a negative effect on the Rays’ playoff chances. While the team did win 96 games and earn a playoff berth last season, it did so with help from a solid offensive showing from fellow catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who picked up more playing time than Zunino but left for Atlanta in free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline

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With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.

We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…

  • The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
  • Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
  • Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.

Earlier Moves

  • The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
  • Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
  • Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
  • The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
  • The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
  • Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
  • Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.

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AL Notes: Zunino, Rangers, Apostel, Cole, Boras

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The Rays made the gutsy decision to bet on a bounceback from catcher Mike Zunino in 2020, opting to avoid arb with the former Gator via a $4.5MM deal while Travis d’Arnaud headed for richer pastures in Atlanta. Zunino has never been what one would call a complete hitter, but 2019 represented a personal low from a performance standpoint, with the former top draftee managing just a .165/.232/.312 (45 wRC+) output through 289 plate appearances. Now, the likelihood of a Zunino rebound at the plate may rest on the work of hitting coach Chad Mottola, suggests Josh Tolentino of The Athletic (link).

As Tolentino notes, Mottola was instrumental in helping d’Arnaud find offensive consistency and also helped pull shortstop Willy Adames out of an early-season funk in 2019. Zunino’s real value will likely always lie with the glove (he did record 8.3 Fielding Runs Above Average in limited work in 2019, per Baseball Prospectus), but a return to his 2017 levels (126 wRC+ and 25 homers in 124 games) would certainly be a welcome development. The Rays also hold a $4.5MM option on Zunino for the 2021 season.

More notes from around the American League…

  • The Rangers’ decision to draft two third basemen, Josh Jung and Davis Wendzel, with their top two picks in the 2019 draft led many to believe that the future of that position was well in hand, but the toolsy Sherten Apostel should not be counted out as a long-term answer, opines Levi Weaver of The Athletic. Originally acquired alongside Taylor Hearn in a 2018 deadline deal that sent Keone Kela to Pittsburgh, Apostel is likely to start 2020 at High-A Down East alongside Jung. Despite his 6’4 frame, organizational observers are bullish about his ability to stick at the hot corner, and his prodigious raw power prompted Single-A Hickory manager Matt Hagen to credit the 20-year-old Curacao native with “man-child” strength. Apostel managed a .251/.339/.440 slash line and 19 home runs across 478 plate appearances between two levels last year. Of course, the position could be addressed via a long-term signing this offseason, with our writers settling on Texas as a realistic destination for free agent Josh Donaldson in early November.
  • While much has been made of Gerrit Cole’s professional relationship with agent Scott Boras this offseason, observers should take note that Cole previously shown a tendency to direct his own fortunes, reminds Tracy Ringolsby of Baseball America. When Cole was a first-round draftee of the Yankees back in 2008, it was Cole and his father, according to Ringolsby, who made the ultimate decision to pursue a collegiate career at UCLA. Cole’s first-round signing bonus that year was expected to land around $4MM, but the Cole family apparently believed that the intangible value of an education–to say nothing of another chance of entering the draft at a higher slot–outweighed the benefits of an early payday. Obviously, it doesn’t register as news to be reminded that agents are entrusted to work for the best interests of their clients, but it may be worth considering, given their working history, that the former Astros ace and his representatives likely have more in mind this offseason than pure dollar value alone.

Rays Avoid Arbitration With Mike Zunino

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3:54pm: This agreement has now been announced.

2:22pm: The Rays are nearing agreement on a contract with backstop Mike Zunino, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). If finalized as expected, he’ll earn $4.5MM for the 2020 campaign and remain under control in the 2021 season with a $4.5MM club option.

Zunino was projected to earn $4.9MM via arbitration by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. That was a big enough sum that it seemed possible he’d be non-tendered by the budget-conscious Tampa Bay organization. But with Travis d’Arnaud heading to Atlanta, the Rays decided to hang onto a known quantity to pair with Michael Perez behind the dish.

The arrangement that the sides have settled upon pays Zunino a bit less than might have been anticipated, though it’s well within the range of plausible outcomes for his arbitration case. He’ll avoid the risks of the open market. The club will be able to achieve value through the option if Zunino performs as hoped. The option year includes an escalator provision that allows Zunino to boost the potential salary by up to $750K based upon the number of plate appearances he takes in 2020, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Zunino, 28, is a valued defender who has at times been quite productive with the bat. But he’s coming off of a forgettable 2019 offensive season. Zunino slashed just .165/.232/.312 over his 289 plate appearances, with the departing d’Arnaud taking more of the reps over the course of the season. It wasn’t long ago (2017) that Zunino rode a .355 batting average on balls in play to a .251/.331/.509 batting output. But he managed only a .220 BABIP in 2019. Statcast suggests the dip is the product of both misfortune (his .271 xwOBA dwarfed his .235 wOBA) and a performance downturn (36.9% hard-hit ratio, down from 46.9% in 2017).

Rays Reinstate, Option Michael Perez

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The Rays announced Monday that they’ve reinstated catcher Michael Perez from the 10-day injured list and optioned him to Triple-A Durham. Perez missed more than a month due to an oblique injury.

Not long ago, it looked as through Perez’s return could push Travis d’Arnaud out of the mix in Tampa Bay. The longtime Mets catcher had struggled considerably at the plate in his time with the Rays and was acquired only for cash considerations, so there’d have been little harm in cutting him loose based on his struggles. Since late May, however, d’Arnaud has come to life at the plate. He’s hit safely in six of his past seven starts, including four multi-hit efforts. He’s suddenly batting .259/.323/.481 with three homers as a member of the Rays, albeit in a small sample of 62 plate appearances.

With Mike Zunino back from the injured list and d’Arnaud riding a hot streak, there’s not much room on the big league roster for Perez at the moment. The 26-year-old has batted .274/.328/.389 in 126 plate appearances with the Rays since being acquired from the D-backs in the trade that sent Matt Andriese to Arizona last year, but he’ll have to wait for another opportunity at the MLB level. He still seems like a viable long-term piece for the Rays moving forward — particularly given that he can be controlled through 2024. Zunino is a free agent after the 2020 season, while d’Arnaud will be a free agent this offseason.

Rays Designate Erik Kratz, Activate Mike Zunino

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The Rays announced that they have designated catcher Erik Kratz for assignment. His roster spot will go to fellow backstop Mike Zunino, who has been activated from the injured list.

Kratz turns 39 in mid-June and still hasn’t topped a thousand career MLB plate appearances, but he has carved out a second act as a trustworthy journeyman reserve. Unfortunately, he has managed only five hits and two walks in 53 plate appearances this year with the Giants and Rays.

Zunino ended up missing three weeks with a quad strain. It may have felt like a lengthier duration than that for a Tampa Bay team that has received next to nothing offensively from the catching position. Zunino hasn’t exactly torn it up at the plate himself, turning in a familiar blend of good pop and unsightly on-base numbers. But he has been much more productive than Kratz and Travis d’Arnaud, who have stepped in amidst a dizzying run of injuries for Rays catchers. (Michael Perez and Anthony Bemboom are still on the IL.)

Mike Zunino Close To Return

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The Rays have been without injured catcher Mike Zunino for three weeks, but he could return as early as Friday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Zunino went to the 10-day IL on May 9 with a left quad strain.

Injuries, not just to Zunino, have victimized Rays catchers this year. Zunino headed to the shelf just four days after an oblique strain sent fellow backstop Michael Perez to the IL. When the club lost Zunino, it promoted Anthony Bemboom as his replacement, but the latter wound up on the IL on May 15 with a knee sprain.

With only struggling minor league Nick Ciuffo to turn to as a healthy 40-man option, the banged-up Rays had to scour the trade market for help earlier this month. They acquired former Mets starter Travis d’Arnaud from the Dodgers on the 10th and landed journeyman Erik Kratz in a deal with the Giants on the 16th. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, those two haven’t offered much help so far. D’Arnaud and Kratz have combined for seven hits (five singles, two doubles), 17 strikes and three walks in 52 plate appearances, essentially making them automatic outs.

Aside from Perez – who’s still dealing with “discomfort,” per Topkin – no Rays backstop has done much at the plate this season. That includes Zunino, though the ex-Mariner’s .220/.260/.407 line in 96 PA would be welcome for the Rays compared to what they’ve gotten from d’Arnaud and Kratz.

It seems likely the return of Zunino will lead to the end of Kratz’s time on the Rays’ 40-man roster. The 38-year-old’s out of minor league options and has been behind d’Arnaud in Tampa Bay’s pecking order.

Injury Notes: McHugh, Davis, Tepera, Zunino, Duke

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The Astros announced today that right-hander Collin McHugh is headed to the 10-day injured list due to discomfort in his right elbow. It’s an ominous-sounding injury but the cause for concern doesn’t appear to be great; McHugh told reporters after the move that an MRI has already been performed and did not reveal any structural damage (link via the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome). He’ll spend two or three days resting the arm before playing catch, and the 31-year-old (32 next month) believes he’s only in line for a brief stay on the IL. Any injury for a free-agent-to-be is at least somewhat notable, of course, and McHugh’s stock is particularly worth watching now that he’s been dropped from the rotation to the bullpen. Right-hander Brady Rodgers will return to the Majors for the first time since 2016 to replace McHugh in the bullpen. Rodgers, a third-rounder in 2012, has had a long road back from 2017 Tommy John surgery to post a solid 3.22 ERA in 44 2/3 innings in Triple-A so far.

More injury updates of note…

  • Athletics slugger Khris Davis exited tonight’s game after one plate appearance due to what the team announced to be “lingering effects from a left hip contusion suffered earlier this season.” It’s not clear if this’ll be another day-to-day situation for Davis or whether he might finally require a trip to the injured list to allow what has been a long-nagging injury time to heal up. Davis, king of the .247 batting average, is remarkably just a hair off that number, hitting .248/.318/.497 with a dozen homers through 179 plate appearances after making an out in the one at-bat he did have Tuesday.
  • A right elbow impingement has landed Blue Jays righty Ryan Tepera on the 10-day injured list, per an announcement from the team. Right-hander Jimmy Cordero is up from Triple-A Buffalo in his place. The outlook on Tepera is of at least some concern, as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi tweets that Tepera says he’s been unable to get the proper level of extension on his release of his pitches. He’s headed to see a specialist for further evaluation. The 31-year-old Tepera had quietly emerged as a very solid setup piece for the Jays over the past few seasons but has been torched for a 6.55 ERA with nine strikeouts against six walks (two intentional) through 11 innings this season. His average fastball has dipped from 95 mph in 2017-18 to 93.7 mph this season. A healthy Tepera would make for a nice trade chip for the Jays this summer, given that he’s controlled through 2021, so his diagnosis and recovery timetable are well worth monitoring despite the fact that the Jays are on pace for nearly 100 losses.
  • Rays catcher Mike Zunino feels he’s making good progress on his return from a quad strain, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Zunino, who was given a four- to six-week recovery timeline is optimistic that he can return toward the front end of that projection. That’s welcome news for a Rays organization that has cycled through various combinations of Nick Ciuffo, Anthony Bemboom, Travis d’Arnaud and Erik Kratz since seeing both Zunino and Michael Perez land on the injured list. Both d’Arnaud and Kratz were trade acquisitions prompted by the loss of the organization’s top two catchers. Once Zunino and/or Perez is ready to return, there’ll likely be further roster juggling.
  • Lefty Zach Duke was placed on the injured list by the Reds due to a calf strain earlier today. Cincinnati will operate with a slightly shorter ’pen for at least a day or two, as they recalled infielder Josh VanMeter in his place. The Reds still have a pair of lefties in the bullpen in Amir Garrett and Wandy Peralta. For Duke, who inked a one-year deal worth $2MM this offseason, the trip to the IL could give him an opportunity for a mental breather on the heels of an ugly start to the year. Through 15 2/3 innings, the 36-year-old Duke has a 6.32 ERA with more walks (11) than strikeouts (9). Duke’s ground-ball rate, which sat at a hefty 59.4 percent in 2018, is down to 49 percent to begin the year.
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