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AL Notes: Red Sox, Devers, Springer, Jays, Twins

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Some notes from around the American League:

  • The Red Sox don’t appear to have any intent to move Rafael Devers off third base in 2021, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. The 24-year-old has been a strong hitter but garnered shaky defensive ratings. By measure of defensive runs saved, Devers has been below-average at the hot corner in each of his four MLB seasons. (Statcast’s outs above average was more bullish on his 2019 work but has pegged him as a negative in three of those years). Since the start of 2017, DRS estimates Devers has been 35 runs worse than the average defensive third baseman, a mark that handily dwarfs the rest of his positional peers for worst in the league. There could be some merit to playing prospect Bobby Dalbec at the hot corner and moving Devers across the diamond. Nevertheless, Cotillo notes that the plan seems to be for Devers to remain at third, with Dalbec the favorite for first base reps.
  • The Blue Jays are generally viewed as one of two frontrunners in the race to sign George Springer (the Mets being the other). With that in mind, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith examines the outfielder’s free agent market. The general expectation entering the offseason had been that Springer would receive a five-year deal in the $100MM – $125MM range. (The MLBTR staff forecasted five years, $125MM). However, Nicholson-Smith feels Springer’s eventual price point may come in well north of those initial estimates. As he points out, Springer’s productivity with the Astros isn’t dissimilar from that of Anthony Rendon with the Nationals. Nearly two years older than Rendon was at this time last year, Springer won’t match the latter’s seven-year term. But Nicholson-Smith speculates that an average annual value approaching Rendon’s $35MM per year salary could be in play for Springer on a five-year contract.
  • Should the Twins pursue a long-term extension with outfield prospect Alex Kirilloff? Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic makes the case for that, examining potential contract terms in a piece that figures to be of interest to Twins’ fans. Extensions for players who’ve yet to make their MLB debut are rare but not unheard of. For instance, the White Sox and Mariners pulled off deals last winter with Luis Robert and Evan White, respectively. Kirilloff played in one of Minneosta’s postseason games last year but still has zero MLB service time, having been added to the roster after the regular season concluded. The 23-year-old ranks as the Twins’ best prospect at Baseball America.

Phil Hughes Announces Retirement

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Phil Hughes officially announced his retirement from baseball today via Twitter. Hughes last pitched in the Majors in 2018 as a member of the San Diego Padres. While his final 16 appearances came out of the Padres bullpen, the No. 23 overall pick of the 2004 draft spent most of his 12-year career split between the Yankees and Twins.

In his own words, Hughes begins his announcement by saying, “While it’s been fairly apparent to most over these last couple years, I’d like to officially announce my retirement from baseball. Through many ups and downs over 12 years, I look back and am incredibly proud of what I was able to accomplish.”

Hughes took some time finding his way, and he ultimately leaves the game as an underrated hurler. After debuting in pinstripes during the 2007 season, he became linked in many minds to Joba Chamberlain as a pair of promising arms that didn’t pan out quite as intended for the Yankees. That said, Hughes has plenty to be proud of after carving out a successful big league career.

He was prematurely crowned a future ace for the Yankees, but he nevertheless developed as a significant contributor setting up games for Mariano Rivera during New York’s 2009 title run. Hughes posted a 3.03 ERA/3.22 FIP over 86 innings that season, including nine appearances in the postseason.

Hughes would settle in as a starter during a four-year run from 2012 to 2015. His best year came in 2014, his first with the Twins in which he logged 209 2/3 frames with a 3.52 ERA/2.65 FIP and an ML-leading 11.63 K/BB rate and a 7th-place Cy Young finish. Injuries and circumstances may have altered Hughes’ ultimate trajectory, but his emergence in Minnesota became a feel-good story for as long as his health allowed.

In total, the 34-year-ol Hughes retires with 11.2 bWAR, but 17.7 fWAR, indicating his ultimate work level might have been underappreciated at the time. He spent seven seasons with the Yankees and five with the Twins, with one All-Star appearances in 2010. Congrats to Hughes on a long and successful career.

Five Teams Showing Interest In Alex Colome

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There hasn’t been much public buzz about Alex Colome’s market this winter, but the former All-Star has been attracting some attention in free agency.  Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (via Twitter) reports that the Twins “recently inquired” about Colome’s services, while FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter links) adds that the Nationals, Red Sox, Astros, and White Sox have also shown interest.

For the last five seasons, Colome has been a solid and occasionally dominant ninth-inning option, racking up 138 saves for the Rays, Mariners, and White Sox since the start of the 2016 season.  With Chicago in 2020, Colome posted just an 0.81 ERA over 22 1/3 innings, while posting a largely impressive slate of Statcast metrics (in particular finishing in the 95th percentile in barrel percentage).  ERA predictors, however, weren’t nearly as impressed with his work, as Colome’s 2.97 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, and 4.44 SIERA all reflected his ordinary 6.4 K/9, as well as some good fortune in the form of a .200 BABIP and 86.4% strand rate.  He also didn’t allow a single home run last year, which isn’t likely to be duplicated over a full season.

Colome largely relies on a two-pitch arsenal of a cutter (which he has thrown over 70% of the time in each of the last two seasons) and a four-seam fastball that clocks around the 94.4mph range.  It’s hard to argue with results, of course, though teams could be wary of committing big money to the 32-year-old Colome going forward if they feel his advanced metrics will start catching up to his on-field numbers.

That said, the lack of Colome updates to this point could also be par for the course during an offseason that hasn’t seen much high-priced movement in the relief market.  Trevor May’s two-year, $15.5MM deal with the Mets represents the only significant contract given to a relief pitcher this winter, and such names as Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Blake Treinen, and Trevor Rosenthal continue to wait for their next teams (not to mention many other prominent relievers who could be available in trades).

As we inch closer to the projected start of Spring Training, it isn’t surprising that we’ll hear more news about interest in Colome and other relievers as teams start to get aggressive about filling holes in the bullpen.  All five of the teams linked to Colome have needs at the back of their respective pen, even if a provisional closer is already in place to handle the bulk of save opportunities.  For the White Sox in particular, there has been speculation that the team could elevate Aaron Bummer or Evan Marshall to closer if Colome went elsewhere, though it would make sense that Chicago would welcome back a familiar closer (at the right price, of course) if the Sox want some ninth-inning experience for what they hope will be a deeper run into the postseason.

Two Years Ago, The Twins Signed An Elite Hitter

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Today marks the two-year anniversary of the Twins announcing a free agent deal with Nelson Cruz. The then-38-year-old received a one-year, $14.3MM guarantee with a $12MM club option covering the 2020 season.

At the time, Cruz was coming off an incredible four-year run with the Mariners. He had hit .284/.362/.546 during his time in Seattle. By measure of weighted runs created plus, the slugger was the sport’s eighth-most productive hitter between 2015-18 (minimum 600 plate appearances). Nevertheless, Cruz’s age and lack of defensive value as a full-time designated hitter limited him to a single year guarantee.

After a surprising Wild Card berth in 2017, the Twins slumped to a 78-84 season in 2018. Surely, the front office hoped that signing Cruz would install an elite bat into the middle of the order and help Minnesota’s lineup emerge as one of the best in the league. That’s precisely how things played out.

If anything, the already-great Cruz took his offensive game to another level in 2019. He hit a career-best .311/.392/.639 with 41 home runs in just 521 plate appearances. As a team, Minnesota slugged a record 307 homers that year en route to an AL Central title. That made exercising the 2020 option a no-brainer. Cruz again mashed at an elite level and helped the Twins to their second consecutive division championship this past season.

Now 40 years old, Cruz is again a free agent, facing the same questions he faced last time he was on the open market (and the time before that). He offers nothing defensively and is among the oldest players in the sport. Yet Cruz has shown no signs of decline at the plate; on the contrary, he’s coming off arguably the two best offensive seasons of his career.

Another deal between the Twins and Cruz makes plenty of sense. Minnesota again looks like one of the best teams in the American League, although the pursuit of another division title looks more difficult than ever thanks to the White Sox’s emergence as a legitimate contender. The past two division crowns haven’t led to any postseason success, which the Twins no doubt hope to change in 2021.  The parties have remained in contact this winter. No deal has come together to this point amidst uncertainty about whether the DH will expand to the National League, which would obviously open up Cruz’s market.

Twins Sign Hansel Robles

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The Twins have signed right-hander Hansel Robles, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports (Twitter link).  The deal has been officially announced by the team.  Robles will earn $2MM on the one-year contract, as per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). He could make up to $500K more in incentives, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets.

Robles was non-tendered by the Angels on December 2, as the team chose to cut Robles loose rather than pay him a projected arbitration salary in the $4MM range.  The decision wasn’t entirely surprising in the wake of a pretty disastrous 2020 season for the 30-year-old, as Robles posted a 10.26 ERA over 16 2/3 innings for the Halos, in large part due to a 2.2 HR/9.

Though Robles has been somewhat susceptible to the long ball throughout his career, he still posted some solid numbers for the Mets from 2015-18, and it seemed like Robles had turned a corner after the Angels claimed him off waivers in June 2018.  Robles had a 2.97 ERA in 36 1/3 frames for Anaheim during the remainder of the 2018 campaign, and then seemed to fully break out during a 2019 season that saw him emerge as the Angels’ closer.

Robles had a 2.48 ERA, 4.69 K/BB rate, and 9.3 K/9 over 72 2/3 innings for Los Angeles in 2019, and he racked up 23 saves.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed back in April, Robles thrived after greatly increasingly the use of his changeup, and altering his approach when challenging right-handed batters with his fastball.  According to Statcast, Robles’ change was still an effective pitch in 2020, but batters absolutely teed off on his four-seamer to the tune of a .447 xwOBA.

Minnesota certainly hopes its coaching staff can get Robles back on track next season, as the Twins bullpen has some holes to fill.  The Twins have already lost a couple of notable names in Trevor May and Matt Wisler, and Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard are still free agents.  It has been a pretty quiet offseason overall for the reigning AL Central champions, perhaps due to the ongoing uncertainty around whether or not Nelson Cruz could re-sign with the Twins, a situation that may not be resolved until it is known if the DH will be used in the National League next season.

Fernando Romero Signs With NPB’s Yokohama BayStars

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DECEMBER 25: The BayStars have announced their agreement with Romero (h/t to the Japan Times). It’s a one-year deal with a club option for 2022. Romero will reportedly make $724,000 next season.

DECEMBER 18, 7:03pm: Romero will sign with the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets. The Twins will receive roughly $300K in return.

DECEMBER 18, 4:15pm: The Twins activated right-hander Fernando Romero from the restricted list and then released him, Chris Miller of the Star Tribune reports. Romero, who is from the Dominican Republic, was unable to secure a visa to the United States last season.

This is certainly not the way the Twins expected their relationship with Romero to end, as he was among their top prospects for multiple seasons. Baseball America ranked Romero as the Twins’ sixth-best farmhand in 2018 and wrote that he could turn into a second or third starter “if he can round out his third pitch.”

The 25-year-old Romero did collect 11 starts with the Twins from 2018-19, during which he averaged about 96 mph on his fastball, but the results weren’t great. He combined for 69 2/3 innings during those seasons and recorded a 5.17 ERA/4.49 FIP with 8.14 K/9, 3.88 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent groundball rate. Romero has been better in Triple-A ball, where he owns a 3.88 ERA and has registered 8.0 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 in 148 1/3 innings. It’s likely some other team will take a chance on him now that he’s available to sign.

Free Agent Notes: LeMahieu, Realmuto, Arihara, Hand

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The Mets “recently contacted” infielder DJ LeMahieu, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The fight for LeMahieu appeared to be between his previous team, the Yankees, as well as the Blue Jays, but it would be difficult to count the deep-pocketed Mets out of the mix. Signing LeMahieu would enable the Mets to send Jeff McNeil from second to third base, though it’s unclear what that would mean for J.D. Davis, who started the majority of Mets games at the hot corner in 2020.

  • New Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and Jeff Berry, the agent for free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, had a discussion Monday, Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic relays. Negotiations did not occur during that talk, but Dombrowski made sure to mention that the Phillies want Realmuto back, per Montemurro. They have made Realmuto an offer, Heyman relays.
  • The Rangers are among the teams “believed” to have interest in right-hander Kohei Arihara, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. The 28-year-old Arihara, whom the Nippon Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball posted earlier this offseason, logged a 3.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 836 innings. MLB teams have until Dec. 26 to sign Arihara.
  • Minnesota native Brad Hand, one of the top relievers on the open market, told Darren Wolfson of SKOR North that he’d “love to play”  for the Twins in 2021. However, the southpaw isn’t sure if the Twins are interested in signing him. Hand reached free agency when the division-rival Indians declined his $10MM club option after last season, which came as a surprise considering the 30-year-old was one of baseball’s top relievers in 2020.

NL East Notes: Scherzer, Dombrowski, Realmuto, Braves

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While Nationals ace Max Scherzer is taking a “year by year” approach as he nears his 14th Major League season, Scherzer isn’t eyeing retirement any time soon.  “I still love everything it takes to go out there and pitch at a high level. Still love pitching as much as I ever have.  I don’t feel like I’m slowing down whatsoever and I want to continue to have as long a career as possible,” Scherzer tells NBC Sports Washington’s Todd Dybas.

Whether Scherzer’s baseball future is in the District or elsewhere has yet to be determined, as Scherzer is entering the final year of his contract.  Nationals GM Mike Rizzo recently stated that there hadn’t yet been any extension talks with the right-hander, and Scherzer also said he hasn’t heard anything about negotiations.  Obviously, there’s plenty of time before the season for the two sides to discuss continuing what has thus far been an incredibly successful relationship, though Scherzer still sees 2021 as more unfinished business.  “I still have another year left to really try and execute this contract,” Scherzer said.  “That’s just kind of how I try to work.  I’m not going to sit here and try to reflect upon six years when I’ve still got a year left.”

More from around the NL East…

  • The Phillies’ hiring of Dave Dombrowski as their new president of baseball operations caught many around in the sport by surprise, including Dombrowski himself on some level.  As Jayson Stark of The Athletic (subscription required) writes in his chronicle of Philadelphia’s front office search, “In a little more than 30 hours, Dave Dombrowski had gone from ’sorry’ to ’when do I start?’ And he’d never seen it coming.”  Stark’s piece details the many ins and outs of the Phillies’ search, which a close but ultimately fruitless courtship of Twins GM Thad Levine, and Dombrowski himself twice rejecting the team’s overtures to focus on his position as part of a group attempting to bring an MLB franchise to Nashville.  After Dombrowski learned that MLB was unlikely to either expand or relocate a team any time soon, he gave renewed consideration to the Phillies’ pitch and a deal came together quite quickly.
  • On paper, “the match seemed perfect” between J.T. Realmuto and the Mets to line up on a free agent deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes.  However, “the Mets wanted to move more quickly than Realmuto,” so New York pivoted away from Realmuto to sign the next-best catcher on the market in James McCann.  Time will tell if either side might have erred, whether it was the Mets by being too aggressive or Realmuto by not being aggressive enough.
  • The Braves officially announced their 2021 coaching staff, including the additions of Bobby Magallanes as a second assistant hitting coach and the hiring of Drew French as the new bullpen coach.  Magallanes has been with Atlanta’s organization for the last two seasons, first working as a hitting coach at the Triple-A level in 2019 and then as an assistant hitting instructor in 2020, which already included a lot of work with the MLB roster.  French has spent the past five seasons with the Astros, working in such roles as Triple-A pitching coach in 2019 and instructing at Houston’s alternate training site last season.

Twins Notes: Middle Infield, Jeffers, Romero

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The Twins are receiving trade interest both in their upper-level middle infield prospects and in controllable players on their big league roster, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That’s not exactly earth-shattering news, given the manner in which teams covet affordable long-term pieces — particularly this offseason. Rosenthal still outlines a possibility of Minnesota moving someone like second baseman Luis Arraez in order to slide Jorge Polanco over to second base. Doing so could come as part of a trade package for a high-end shortstop (e.g. Trevor Story) or help in the rotation, with a free-agent shortstop then being brought in as a bridge to top prospect Royce Lewis.

We’ve written about the possibility of the Twins making middle-infield moves despite a clear hole here at MLBTR, and from my vantage point it doesn’t seem the Twins would even need to move Arraez to justify bringing in a shortstop upgrade if they wish. Polanco has never been a strong defensive shortstop, even prior to a pair of ankle surgeries, and would seem perfectly well suited to play the same super-utility role that was recently held by departing free agent Marwin Gonzalez. There are myriad avenues they could take, but a move at shortstop doesn’t seem outlandish for the Twins, even with Polanco in tow. He’s set to earn $4.33MM in 2021, $5MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023 before the Twins have a pair of club options valued at $10.5MM and $12MM.

More out of Minneapolis/St. Paul…

  • The Twins announced earlier this week that catcher Ryan Jeffers underwent an offseason procedure to remove loose bodies from his right elbow. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the operation isn’t expected to delay Jeffers’ availability for the 2021 season, though, with manager Rocco Baldelli telling Miller and others that Jeffers is already nearly back up to speed. Jeffers, 23, jumped to the Majors to fill in for an injured Mitch Garver in 2020 and not only held his own but may have even cemented his spot on the 2021 roster. In 26 games, the 2018 second-rounder took 62 plate appearances and posted a .273/.355/.436 slash with three homers. Jeffers did skip Triple-A entirely due to the lack of a minor league season, though, so the Twins could conceivably add a veteran backup if the hope is to get him a bit more seasoning. Doing so would also afford Jeffers everyday reps rather than have him serve in a more limited role behind Garver.
  • Minnesota’s decision to release Fernando Romero yesterday (and Romero quickly signing with the Yokohama BayStars) was examined by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, who reports that Romero didn’t draw much trade attention from MLB teams.  The Twins simply weren’t certain whether Romero would be able to pitch in the United States after visa issues prevented him from entering the country in 2020, and as president of baseball ops Derek Falvey said, “it felt like given all the circumstances around this year and going forward, plus his desired pursuit of Japan, it kind of felt like the best combination.”

Twins Sign Eight Players To Minor League Deals

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The Twins have signed eight players to minor league pacts with invites to Major League Spring Training, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. In addition to their previously reported deals with righty Derek Law and second baseman Tzu-Wei Lin, the Twins have re-signed left-hander Danny Coulombe, righty Juan Minaya and catcher Tomas Telis. They’ve also brought infielder/outfielder Rob Refsnyder and right-handers Glenn Sparkman and Luke Farrell into the fold.

Coulombe, 31, tossed 2 2/3 shutout innings with the Twins in 2020 but spent most of the year at their alternate training site in St. Paul. The former A’s and Dodgers lefty has a career 4.19 ERA and 4.10 FIP in 146 innings out of a big league bullpen. He’s averaged about 8.5 K/9 in that time, but Coulombe’s strikeout numbers exploded at the Triple-A level in 2019, when he punched out 61 hitters in just 36 1/3 innings while maintaining a ground-ball rate north of 50 percent. Suffice it to say, he’s an intriguing depth piece.

Minaya, 30, was selected to the Twins’ big league roster in 2020 but designated for assignment before getting into a game. Minnesota got a long look at him not only at their alternate site in St. Paul this past season but from parts of four seasons spent in the division-rival White Sox’ bullpen. Minaya has a 3.93 ERA, a 4.18 FIP and 10 strikeouts per nine innings in 128 1/3 frames at the MLB level, all coming with the South Siders.

The 29-year-old Telis hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2018 but spent the past two seasons in the Twins organization, including a terrific 2019 showing with their Triple-A club: .330/.364/.490 in 327 plate appearances. Telis, a career .230/.267/.298 hitter in 267 MLB plate appearances, will be behind both Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers on the Twins’ depth chart but gives them an experienced depth option.

New to the organization is the 29-year-old Refsnyder, who has seen big league time with the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays and Rangers. In 457 trips to the dish, he’s a .217/.305/.297 hitter. While he was never regarded as a top prospect, Refsnyder excited Yankee fans with a promising debut effort back in 2015, but he’s never replicated that small-sample success. Refsnyder does carry a career .296 average and .372 OBP in parts of six Triple-A seasons, and he has experience at second base, both infield corners and both outfield corners.

Both Sparkman and Farrell have recent MLB experience — Sparkman in Kansas City and Farrell in Texas. Sparkman, 28, has a 5.99 ERA in 180 1/3 big league innings but a strong track record in both Double-A and Triple-A, giving the Twins some upper-level depth. Farrell, the son of former big league skipper John Farrell, has a 5.00 ERA in 63 MLB frames but, like Sparkman, has a stronger track record in the upper minors.

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