AL Central Notes: Witt, Polanco, Peralta, Tigers
Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of the stars of Spring Training, as the highly-touted prospect has wowed teammates and observers at the Royals‘ camp. As a result, Dayton Moore is “very much open-minded of him being on this team as we break this camp,” the Kansas City general manager told Fantasy Alarm’s Jim Bowden in an interview Tuesday. (MLB.com’s Anne Rogers has a partial transcript.)
“I’m not going to make an advanced decision now, but we’re just going to let the player tell us” with his work, Moore said. “Right now, we don’t have to pick our roster. But the fact that Bobby Witt is still in camp and [manager Mike Matheny] continues to play him, and the most important thing is we all know he’s earned the respect — a young talented player with a lot of hype around him who’s earned the respect of his teammates.”
Since being selected second overall in the 2019 draft, Witt has appeared in only 37 professional games, all with the Royals’ rookie league affiliate in 2019 (.262/.317/.354 in 180 PA). Even after impressing at the Royals’ alternate training site last summer and continuing that performance into the spring, Witt would still be making a big jump in going from rookie ball to the majors at age 20. While the Opening Day lineup might be a bit of a reach, there is certainly an increasing chance that Witt could make his MLB debut before the 2021 season is out.
More from the AL Central…
- Jorge Polanco was removed from Tuesday’s game due to left adductor tightness, but Twins manager Rocco Baldelli thinks Polanco should be removed after “maybe a few days.” Baldelli told MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park and other reporters that Polanco was initially hurt after an awkward landing on the baseball while trying to field a grounder, and the decision was made to take Polanco out two innings later when he reported some tightness while running out a ground ball. With Andrelton Simmons taking over as Minnesota’s shortstop, Polanco is expected to move from his old shortstop position and get the bulk of playing time at second base.
- Wily Peralta signed a minor league deal with the Tigers in February but hasn’t yet arrived at camp due to visa issues. Unsurprisingly, manager A.J. Hinch told The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky and other reporters that the delay will cost Peralta a shot at making the Tigers’ Opening Day roster. Since being released by the Royals in July 2019, Peralta hasn’t pitched anywhere apart from an eight-game stint in the Dominican Winter League, so his attempt at reviving his career will now move to Detroit’s minor league camp when he eventually gets to the United States.
- In other AL Central news from earlier today, both the White Sox (link) and Indians (link) have interest in extending some of their top players.
Central Notes: Bryant, Odorizzi, Reds, Gose
Kris Bryant has continued to express openness to a contract extension with the Cubs, but he reiterated today there’s not yet been any discussion between his representatives and the organization (via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). The 29-year-old isn’t ruling out the possibility of a long-term deal coming together eventually, even though he’s currently on track to reach free agency after the season. “I’m not looking at it as my last year (as a Cub),” Bryant said (via Mooney). “Who knows what year it could be? I could have 10 more years here. Who knows? I could come back as a coach. I could live in Chicago. I don’t know.” Regardless of what happens after 2021, it’s clear Bryant will open the season with the Cubs after an offseason of trade rumors didn’t result in a deal.
Elsewhere in the game’s central divisions:
- Jake Odorizzi is moving on from the Twins after a three-year run in Minnesota, but the right-hander said during yesterday’s Astros introduction that the Twin Cities “hold a special place” in his heart and left the door open for a return down the road (link via the Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s Phil Miller). “I loved my time in Minnesota,” said Odorizzi, whose two-year deal with the Astros became official this week. “Maybe there’s a time to circle back after this stint [in Houston] is done.” Odorizzi noted that he originally hoped a new deal would come together, but he saw the writing on the wall when the Twins inked fellow free agent J.A. Happ to a one-year, $8MM deal earlier in the winter.
- A few teams have announced their intention to start out with a six-man rotation. That doesn’t seem to be on the table for the Reds, who are going to open the season with a five-man starting staff, manager David Bell said (via MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon). Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle are obvious locks, while Bell suggested Wade Miley is likely to get a shot at a rebound season as a starter. That leaves Michael Lorenzen, Tejay Antone, Jeff Hoffman and José De León in a battle for the final job. The pitchers who don’t earn the season-opening rotation spot figure to start off as multi-inning relief options.
- Reliever Anthony Gose is impressing the Indians as a non-roster invitee, writes Zack Meisel of the Athletic. Continuing to throw in the upper-90’s and now incorporating a slider, Gose has struck out four without issuing a walk through his first three Cactus League innings. The former outfielder has attracted the attention of a few teams since moving to the mound in 2017 but has yet to get back to the big leagues as a pitcher. Continued strike-throwing is the key for Gose, who walked an untenable 21.5% of opposing hitters during his most recent minor league action in 2019.
MLBTR Poll: Should The Twins Extend Byron Buxton?
The Twins have high expectations for their offense in 2021. It’s a talented group with veterans Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson playing alongside young players on the rise like Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, and Luis Arraez. In the middle both metaphorically and positionally, however, centerfielder Byron Buxton undergirds the Twins’ machine in both halves of the inning. He’s the player on the roster with the highest two-way ceiling, and at 27 years old, he’s in his prime. He’s also two years from free agency. Buxton’s agent has been in contact with the Twins about a potential extension, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (via Twitter), but there’s a lot for the Twins to consider.
Defense has long been Buxton’s calling card. He is routinely one of the more impressive performers in the grass, and the numbers back it up. He has averaged 18.3 defensive runs saved and 9.8 UZR per 1,200 innings, which roughly amounts to one season. Both are excellent marks. Statcast is similarly complimentary of Buxton’s glovework, crediting him with five outs above average in 2020. That tied with four others for sixth among outfielders, despite only appearing in 39 games. In 2017, when Buxton was healthy enough to play more than 100 games, he racked up 30 OAA, not only topping the field in that season, but setting the bar. It remains the highest single-season mark from any outfielder in the Statcast era by a fair margin.
Buxton entered the league less polished on the other end, but he has nonetheless come into his own over the past two seasons. Early in his career, he was plagued by strikeout rates over 30 percent, only average power, and well-below-average walk rates. The latter still holds true, but the Twins want him swinging the bat because good things happen when he does. His exit velocity has surged from 88.3 mph in 2015-18 to 90.4 mph the past two seasons. His power has climbed into an elite range as well, rising from .157 ISO his first four seasons to .292 ISO in 430 plate appearances across 2019-20. A bat that was 23 percent below average through 2018 has been 13 percent above average since.
Put together, Buxton’s potential is that of a two-way centerpiece at one of the most important positions on the diamond. The Twins have to be tempted to find a way to keep the former number two overall pick in a Twins uniform long-term. Buxton would like to stay in Minnesota, but the Twins are focused on keeping him healthy in 2021, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes.
Though the idea of Buxton wearing a Twins uniform long-term is tantalizing, the injury concerns are real. The Twins have placed Buxton on the injured list no less than 13 times since he’s been in their organization, with the ailments ranging from concussions to wrist sprains to shoulder issues. The Georgia native hasn’t seen his skills affected, however. He remains one of the fastest players in the game, finishing in the 99th percentile for sprint speed in every season of his career. He turned in a strong batted ball profile in 2020 as well, landing in the 85th percentile for exit velocity, 89th percentile for hard hit percentage, and 88th percentile for barrel percentage.
Finding the right price point for such a high-risk, high-ceiling player will be a challenge for the Twins and Buxton’s representatives at Jet Sports Management. The muddled centerfield market certainly doesn’t help matters. Despite it being one of the weaker positions around the game, Jackie Bradley Jr. struggled to find the kind of deal he was looking for and ultimately settled on a two-year, $24MM offer with an opt-out. Meanwhile, George Springer had no trouble securing a deal, signing in Toronto for six years and $150MM. There were no free agent centerfielders to sign a multi-year deal last winter. The year before it was AJ Pollock joining the Dodgers for five years, $60MM and Andrew McCutchen signing a three-year, $50MM deal with the Phillies. Neither player primarily plays center anymore, however. Lorenzo Cain signed a five-year, $80MM deal with the Brewers the year before that.
Pollock is a natural comp as an oft-injured potential star in center, but he was entering his age-31 season as a free agent, two years younger than Buxton would be after 2022. Cain was also 31, so was Dexter Fowler when he signed with the Cardinals, so will be Springer and Bradley in the first seasons of their new deals. Suffice is to say that it’s hardly a simple task to project what Buxton might find in free agency – especially two years from now under the conditions of a new CBA. The Twins have maintained flexibility in long-term payroll, with their luxury tax payroll falling from ~$147MM this year to ~$66MM in commitments for 2022 and ~$57MM the year after.
But let’s put the financial parameters of a deal to the side for now, and consider the question simply. Should the Twins try to sign Buxton to a long-term deal?
(poll link for app users)
Should The Twins Extend Byron Buxton?
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Uh, no. 28% (1,713)
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Yes, full stop. 21% (1,270)
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Yes, but only through 2024. 15% (886)
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Yes, but only to buy out his arb years (through 2022). 13% (782)
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Yes, but only through 2025. 12% (753)
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Yes, but only through 2023. 12% (704)
Total votes: 6,108
Twins’ Falvey On Odorizzi: “We Wish Him Well”
With Jackie Bradley Jr. now headed to the Brewers, right-hander Jake Odorizzi is the clear top free agent left on the board. Oftentimes, when a player’s market drags to this extent, there’s continued speculation about a return to his prior team. There’s been some of that with regard to Odorizzi and the Twins, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey all but ruled out the possibility in an appearance on MLB Now with Brian Kenney yesterday (video link).
“We look at our team as primarily put together here,” Falvey candidly replied when asked about a reunion with Odorizzi. “We know Jake contributed exceptionally well for us over the last few seasons, and certainly we wish him well. For us, our focus is on the players who are internally in camp at this point. We feel really good about the pitching we have already.”
Odorizzi has spent the past three seasons in Minnesota and had previously expressed interest in extending that stay, but he set out into free agency seeking a lucrative multi-year deal this winter at a time when the Twins have been focused on short-term additions. Minnesota has brokered one-year deals with Nelson Cruz ($13MM), Andrelton Simmons ($10.5MM), J.A. Happ ($8MM), Alex Colome ($6.25MM), Matt Shoemaker ($2MM) and Hansel Robles ($2MM) over the course of the winter. That series of moves has pushed the payroll to about $129MM — a number that could further rise by as much as $10MM as Kenta Maeda reaches his annual incentives for games started and innings pitched.
With Odorizzi seemingly out of the picture, the Twins will field a rotation of Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker. Randy Dobnak is on hand as a sixth starter or possible long man, and other in-house options to start games include lefties Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe. Prospects Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran could both be ready for a look later in the 2021 season, and the Twins have some non-roster arms with big league experience in camp as well (e.g. Andrew Albers, Glenn Sparkman).
As for Odorizzi, the uncertain outlook on his market continues. Earlier this week, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggested the right-hander is content to wait for the right offer to arise rather than to substantially drop his asking price. It’s possible that injuries in camp will open some opportunities. The Astros are suddenly facing a very lengthy absence for Framber Valdez, for instance, and other clubs figure to encounter similar setbacks in their rotation as the spring schedule ramps up.
COVID Notes: Locastro, Happ
The latest regarding the coronavirus:
- Diamondbacks outfielder Tim Locastro tested positive for COVID-19, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). Fortunately, Locastro is asymptomatic (per Piecoro), but he’ll still be out of action for at least the next ten days. The speedster rather quietly hit at a .290/.395/.460 clip with a pair of home runs over 82 plate appearances last season.
- J.A. Happ reported to Twins camp yesterday after being sidelined nearly two weeks by a positive coronavirus test, notes Dan Hayes of the Athletic. The veteran southpaw expressed optimism he’ll build up strength in time to make his first scheduled start of the regular season, although he acknowledged his workload might be checked a bit early on. Happ experienced mild virus symptoms and still has yet to completely regain his sense of smell or taste, per Hayes.
Danny Santana Expected To Sign Soon
Veteran infielder/outfielder Danny Santana has been working out for teams over the past week and is expected to sign a deal in the coming days, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Santana had originally planned to host an open showcase for interested clubs on Thursday, per Heyman, but he’s had enough interest after displaying his health in recent one-on-one workouts that he’s canceled that audition and expects to choose an offer in the near future.
The Athletic’s Dan Hayes tweets that the Twins are among the clubs with interest, although their preference would be on a minor league deal. It’s at least possible that Santana, who played in just 15 games last year before undergoing elbow surgery, could command a big league deal elsewhere. But as an original product of the Twins system, a reunion with his first organization could hold some appeal.
Wherever Santana signs, he’ll give his next club a versatile bench option who has some power, some speed and experience both in the outfield and the infield. The 30-year-old switch-hitter managed just a .145/.238/.278 output in 63 trips to the plate while playing through that elbow injury last year, but as recently as 2019 he gave the Rangers a .283/.324/.534 slash with 28 homers in 511 plate appearances. The composition of the ball in 2019 has been widely questioned, and that might have played a role in Santana’s out-of-the-blue power spike; he did homer seven times in 430 plate appearances as a rookie with the 2014 Twins but had never reached double-digit homers otherwise in a big league season.
On the whole, Santana is a career .260/.299/.418 batter with 42 homers, 87 doubles, 22 triples and a 71-for-95 showing in stolen base attempts. Santana has played all four infield positions and all three outfield slots in his Major League career, with the bulk of his time coming at shortstop (918 innings) and in center field (1143 innings). Assuming he’s healthy, Santana would make a nice late addition to any club’s bench or perhaps even as a competitor for a larger role on a club whose starting nine is not yet fully defined.
COVID Notes: Abreu, Montas, Happ, Cordero
The latest notes from MLB regarding COVID-19:
- Reigning AL MVP José Abreu returned to team workouts yesterday (per Scott Merkin of MLB.com). The White Sox first baseman had been sidelined after testing positive for the coronavirus, which Abreu believes he contracted back in January. Abreu says he’ll need a few extra days to get his timing back after quarantining, so he probably won’t see any game action until the middle of next week.
- Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas discussed his COVID diagnosis with reporters (including Martín Gallegos of MLB.com and Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News). Montas said he previously experienced headaches and body aches and continues to feel some tightness in his chest. Fortunately, he has progressed to running and throwing after being set back by those symptoms.
- Twins left-hander J.A. Happ is feeling well after testing positive for the coronavirus during intake last weekend, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters yesterday (via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). Happ still needs to clear testing protocols before returning to the field, and he’s expected to begin the screening process tomorrow, per Helfand.
- New Red Sox outfielder Franchy Cordero tested positive for the virus and remains in the Dominican Republic, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Cordero was placed on the COVID-19 injured list last week, although it wasn’t known at the time whether that was due to a positive test or mere exposure. The hope is that Cordero will be able to join camp by the middle of next week, per Speier.
Injury Notes: Naughton, Schmidt, Thorpe
Angels prospect Packy Naughton has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 UCL sprain in his elbow, per Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (via Twitter). Naughton is ranked 19th among prospects in the Angels’ system per Baseball America and 12th per MLB.com. Naughton joined the Angels at last year’s trade deadline from the Cincinnati Reds as part of the return for outfielder Brian Goodwin. He had been the Reds’ 20th-ranked prospect per Fangraphs’ mid-season report. Naughton will likely be shut down for a time, though he season would not be in jeopardy, given that a Grade 1 strain suggests there’s no tear in the elbow ligament. Still, any injury to the UCL raises the specter of Tommy John surgery, though jumping to that point would be premature at this time. It’s certainly an inopportune time for the 24-year-old. He wasn’t expected to compete for a rotation job, but he was likely ticketed for the Triple-A rotation, and therefore not too far down the line in terms of depth options for the Angels.
- In brighter news, Clarke Schmidt says he has “relieved” his elbow injury and he expects to be back in action soon, per Erik Boland of Newsday Sports (via Twitter). The 25-year-old made his Major League debut for the Yankees, albeit in just a 6 1/3 inning sample. Regardless, he is competing this spring for his place in the line behind the Yankees’ top five starters. Having made just three starts in Double-A to round out 2019, Schmidt undoubtedly would have spent 2020 in Triple-A, had there been a minor league season. As is, he’ll be in camp with other young arms like Deivi Garcia, Michael King, Luis Medina, and Nick Nelson, trying to prove themselves ready to step-in for a particularly injury-prone New York rotation. Schmidt was shut down just over a week ago for what was supposed to be 3-4 weeks, though it’s possible he returns to action sooner.
- After a difficult and vague leave of absence last spring, Twins’ southpaw Lewis Thorpe is healthy, back in camp, and in a better place mentally, writes the Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Said manager Rocco Baldelli, “I think the sky’s the limit for him. I think he’s a major-league starting pitcher that could definitely establish himself, at some point, hopefully in the very near future, and a guy that can throw a lot of innings. He’s got a very vast arsenal. He can do a lot of things with the baseball.” The Melbourne native has long been a guy with the tools to be a successful starter. Despite a 6.14 ERA/4.77 FIP across 44 big-league innings in 2019 and 2020, Thorpe is worth keeping an eye on. ZiPS is the most bullish of the projection systems, forecasting 106 innings and 1.1 fWAR at the Major League level. If nothing else, with injury concern baked in the back 60 percent of the Twins rotation (Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker), there is some room for some surprise production from someone in the Twins system.
Outfielder Notes: Kirilloff, Kiermaier, Robles
Twins top outfield prospect Alex Kirilloff has a definite chance to make the opening day roster, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Not unrelated, the Twins should face a fair amount of outside pressure to get Kirilloff on the roster from day one. Especially in the aftermath of Mariners’ CEO Kevin Mather openly copping to service time manipulation, it would be poor optics for the Twins to suggest Kirilloff needs more development time. After all, if he was ready to make his Major League debut in the playoffs last season – when service time is not accrued – one would think he is ready to make the lineup for games in April. That said, the 23-year-old former first round pick had not played about Double-A before going 1-for-4 against the Astros during the wild card series. Even so, all signs point to Kirilloff starting the season in the starting lineup. Minnesota let Eddie Rosario walk in free agency in part to make room, and with Royce Lewis being lost for the 2021 season due to injury, the Twins might feel some urgency to “carpe diem,” as it were, and make the most of Kirilloff’s window. Without him, Jorge Polanco probably plays second base while Luis Arraez could slide to the outfield. Elsewhere on the grass…
- The Rays are cautiously easing Kevin Kiermaier into action this spring, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Kiermaier is experiencing hip soreness, and the Rays don’t want the issue lingering into the season. Kiermaier has dealt with a number of “lingering” health issues over the years that’s limited his playing time. Kiermaier was largely healthy in 2020, appearing in 49 games and slashing .217/.321/.362 before notching some big hits in the postseason, including three home runs. Of course, Kiermaier’s value proposition has never been hit bat. The three-time gold glove centerfielder is the linchpin of the Rays’ defensive scheme. They’ve made sure to acquire rangy outfielders to flank him in recent years (Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Brett Phillips), but Kiermaier remains the best defender of the bunch.
- It’s been well-documented now that Victor Robles‘ attempt to add muscle for the 2020 season might have played a part in his diminished defensive metrics. He still managed 2 outs above average by Statcast’s measure, while -4 DRS and -3.6 UZR painted a less rosy picture. Robles, of course, was an all-world defender in 2019 by any measure: 23 OAA, 23 DRS, 5.3 UZR. Robles has reversed course after adding 15 pounds last offseason, reporting to camp as the slimmer version of himself once more, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com. The Nationals are assuming Robles will be back to his elite self in centerfield, as they’ll need him to cover lots of ground while sharing the grass with Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto. Both Schwarber (-3 OAA) and Soto (-2 OAA) have worked hard to improve themselves in the field, but neither one rates particularly well.
Central Notes: Bryant, Cruz, Alberto, White Sox
Despite myriad trade rumors that have centered on him over the past several months, Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that he’s still open to a contract extension with the team. “I’ve always said I’ve been open and willing to hear what (the Cubs) say and take it with open arms and consider everything that’s thrown my way,” Bryant said. “I think I’ve communicated that to them.” Bryant is scheduled to become a free agent next winter, but in the meantime, he’ll make $19.5MM this season. It doesn’t seem any team has jumped at the chance of taking on that type of money for Bryant – even though he’s a former MVP who has typically held his own, he had a difficult 2020 campaign. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested earlier this month that he expects Bryant to open 2021 with the club.
- It may have taken longer than expected for the Twins to re-sign designated hitter Nelson Cruz, whom they inked to a one-year, $13MM guarantee earlier this month. The Twins believed they’d keep Cruz throughout the process, though, as president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told MLB Network Radio on Thursday that “we passed on some other players” who could have prevented them from bringing back Cruz. The identities of those players aren’t known, but the Twins would have been hard-pressed to upgrade at DH over Cruz, who slashed an incredible .308/.394/.626 with 57 home runs in 735 plate appearances with the team from 2019-20.
- The Royals’ Hanser Alberto only received a minor league deal during the winter, though it sounds as if he has a good chance to earn a spot on their season-opening roster. Manager Mike Matheny called the addition of Alberto a “sneaky good signing” earlier this week, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star writes. Alberto spent the previous two seasons with the Orioles before joining the Royals. Alberto didn’t hit for much power or draw many walks in Baltimore, but he did see quite a bit of time at two infield positions (second and third) and make life difficult on left-handed pitchers, against whom he slashed .394/.411/.532 in 280 trips to the plate.
- The White Sox have hired Todd Steverson as a special assistant to executive vice president Ken Williams, James Fegan of The Athletic tweets. Steverson spent 2014-19 as the team’s hitting coach – a role he held with the Athletics’ Triple-A affiliate last season. He’ll focus on scouting in his new job with the White Sox, per Fegan.