Make Or Break Year: How Are They Doing?
Before the season, we identified 11 players who were entering "make or break" years. These guys had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for nice paydays in the future. Now that we're into August, let's take a second to check in each player (all links go to MLBTR posts)…
- Scott Baker, Twins — Baker, 30, had elbow surgery in April and will miss the entire season. Minnesota will likely decline his $9.25MM option for 2013 (no buyout).
- Phil Hughes, Yankees — The 26-year-old right-hander owns a 4.10 ERA in 131 2/3 innings this year, including a 3.40 ERA since mid-May. He's a safe bet to be tendered a contract for 2014, his final year as a arbitration-eligible player.
- Jair Jurrjens, Braves — Jurrjens, 26, pitched so poorly earlier in the season that he had to be sent to the minors. He's since resurfaced and owns 6.89 ERA in 48 1/3 innings, cementing his status as a non-tender candidate.
- Adam Lind, Blue Jays — Lind has battled back problems and also been demoted to Triple-A this season, and he's hit .227/.298/.394 while with the big league team. The 29-year-old continues to disappoint since signing his four-year, $18MM extension prior to 2010.
- Francisco Liriano, White Sox — It's been another up and down season for the 28-year-old southpaw, who owns a 5.03 ERA in 111 innings. The Twins traded Liriano to the ChiSox at the deadline.
- James Loney, Dodgers — Loney, now 28, hasn't helped himself at all this season, hitting just .251/.301/.330 in 327 plate appearances. He might have to settle for a minor league contract this coming offseason.
- Kendrys Morales, Angels — The 29-year-old is hitting .282/.327/.455 with 14 homers on the year, well below the level he established prior to his leg injury in 2010. Morales figures to be both a trade and non-tender candidate after the season.
- Mike Pelfrey, Mets — Pelfrey pitched to a 2.29 ERA in three starts before needing Tommy John surgery. The Mets are expected to non-tender the 28-year-old after the season.
- Geovany Soto, Rangers — The 29-year-old backstop has continued to deal with injuries in 2012 and is hitting just .201/.289/.356. Soto is an obvious non-tender candidate.
- Kevin Youkilis, White Sox — Youkilis lost his starting job with the Red Sox and was traded to the White Sox, who are likely to decline his $13MM option after the season. The 33-year-old has dealt with nagging injuries and is hitting .238/.339/.427 overall.
- Delmon Young, Tigers — Young, 26, has had a below-average season at the plate (.266/.298/.402) and has dealt with some off-field problems. He hasn't helped his free agent stock any.
Minor Moves: Tyler Kuhn, Chih-Wei Hu
Here are the day's minor moves…
- The Diamondbacks acquired utility man Tyler Kuhn from the White Sox for cash, reports Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (Twitter links). The 25-year-old hit .273/.309/.384 in 449 plate appearances for Chicago's Triple-A affiliate this season while playing second base, third base, and left field.
- The Twins have signed Taiwanese pitching prospect Chih-Wei Hu for $220K, reports MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez (on Twitter). The 18-year-old right-hander reportedly runs his fastball into the low-90s.
Red Sox Acquire Danny Valencia From The Twins
The Red Sox have acquired third baseman Danny Valencia from the Twins for minor league outfielder Jeremias Pineda, both teams have announced. Valencia will report to Triple-A Pawtucket while Pineda will report to the Gulf Coast League Twins.
Valencia has struggled this season hitting .198/.212/.310 in two tours with the Twins. He has also played 69 games for Triple-A Rochester batting .250/.289/.399. Valencia, originally selected by the Twins in the 19th round of the 2006 First-Year Player Draft, had an impressive Major League rookie season in 2010 with a slash line of .311/.351/.448, but has seen his numbers drop steadily since.
Pineda is a 21-year-old outfielder from the Dominican Republic who has never played above Rookie ball. Pineda, a switch-hitter, is leading the Gulf Coast League in batting (.421). Over his two professional seasons in the Red Sox organization, Pineda has a slash line of .321/.380/.423 in 70 games between the Dominican Summer League Red Sox and the GCL.
Quick Hits: Lee, Dodgers, Gonzalez, Twins
Yesterday, I asked if the Phillies should let Cliff Lee and his hefty contract to go to the Dodgers after they were awarded claiming rights on him and nearly 68% of MLBTR readers voted yes. In today's column, Buster Olney of ESPN.com talks with a high-ranking rival official who calls the decision a "no-brainer". Even though Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has until 12pm CDT to move Lee, he maintains that the left-hander is staying put. Here's more from around baseball..
- The Dodgers' interest in Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez didn't advance very far as they weren't interested in giving up notable prospects or impact major leaguers, tweets Peter Gammons of MLB.com.
- Twins assistant GM Rob Antony doesn't anticipate the club making a waiver deal in August, writes Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune. The Twins were active this time last year as they traded Delmon Young to Detroit and Jim Thome to Cleveland.
- If Chris Parmelee is capable of posting a reasonable .270/.340/.430 slash line next year, Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter) suggests that the Twins should consider moving Justin Morneau for a starter.
Non-Tender Candidate: Alexi Casilla
The average MLB second baseman has a .254/.317/.380 batting line this year, so it's safe to say teams don't demand as much offense from the position as they once did. In 2000, for example, the average second baseman hit .278/.349/.404 and 18 teams got a .750 OPS or better from their second basemen. Now just six teams have a .750 OPS from second base, but you can’t expect to play regularly unless you provide at least some offense.
Alexi Casilla, the Twins’ starting second baseman, isn’t hitting at all this year and his poor offensive production could cost him his job this coming offseason. The switch-hitter has a .223/.259/.293 batting line in 234 plate appearances so far in 2012. Though 13 of his 14 stolen base attempts have been successful, he’s not providing value on offense.
Casilla is a decent defensive middle infielder best-suited for second base, according to a pre-season scouting report in The Fielding Bible: Volume III. The 28-year-old Proformance client has spent most of this season at second base, making a few appearances at third base and none at shortstop.
Unless the Twins believe Casilla’s defense makes up for his below-average bat, they’ll have to consider non-tendering him this offseason. He’s earning 1.38MM this year as a second-time arbitration eligible player and would be in line for a salary approaching $2MM if Minnesota tenders him a contract this offseason — MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a salary of $1.8MM.
That may be more than the Twins are willing to commit to a player who isn’t hitting, especially since they have internal alternatives up the middle. Brian Dozier and Jamey Carroll will be back in 2013. And pre-arbitration eligible utility player Eduardo Escobar, who joined the Twins in the Francisco Liriano trade, provides Minnesota with another affordable infield option. Many more utility infield options will be available on minor league deals in a matter of months.
Casilla has added some value according to the versions of the wins above replacement metric at Baseball-Reference (0.9 WAR) and FanGraphs (0.4 WAR). But it’s hard to see Twins general manager Terry Ryan committing a roster spot and a couple million dollars to a player who contributes so little on offense. Instead, it looks as though Casilla will hit free agency a year early barring a late-season surge.
Twins Notes: Perkins, Span
Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Jared Burton and the rest of the Twins can breathe easy. No Twins were traded today. Here are the details…
- Glen Perkins was in high demand today, but it's not like GM Terry Ryan to extend a player and trade him that same season, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick writes (Twitter links). The Twins would have had to be overwhelmed to trade the left-hander. The Dodgers made a late push for Perkins, but nothing materialized, Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times reports (on Twitter).
- Ryan said he wasn't close to trading Denard Span, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports (on Twitter). The Reds and Twins discussed a swap involving the center fielder.
- The Twins and Rangers discussed a deal involving Jared Burton.
Reds, Twins Discussing Denard Span
2:19pm: Span to the Reds isn't happening, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
1:29pm: A Reds source downplayed the Span talk, tweets John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
12:52pm: The Reds and Twins are discussing center fielder Denard Span, writes Scott Miller of CBS Sports. One Miller source sees a 50-50 chance of a deal. Span, 28, is hitting .290/.356/.396 in 420 plate appearances for the Twins. He's guaranteed just $12.8MM through 2014, unless his '15 option is picked up.
Rangers, Twins Discussing Jared Burton
The Rangers and Twins are discussing a possible trade involving right-handed reliever Jared Burton, Yahoo's Tim Brown reports (on Twitter). The Rangers are known to be considering additions to their bullpen.
Burton, 31, has a 2.40 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 41 1/3 innings for the Twins this year. He's earning a salary of $750K and will go to arbitration this coming offseason before hitting free agency after 2013.
Dodgers No Longer A Fit For Morneau
The Dodgers are no longer a fit for Twins first baseman Justin Morneau, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, now that they've sent Nathan Eovaldi to Miami in the Hanley Ramirez deal. Rosenthal says the Twins seek a Major League ready starting pitcher for Morneau, and of course will have to work out the $19MM remaining on his contract.
Earlier today, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports named the Blue Jays and Giants as potential Morneau suitors.
The Dodgers appear to have their sights set on Shane Victorino and Ryan Dempster, ESPN's Jayson Stark wrote today.
Heyman On Morneau, Dodgers, Athletics, Mets
The latest from Jon Heyman of CBS Sports:
- The Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Giants "appear to have some interest" in Twins first baseman Justin Morneau. Heyman notes that the Dodgers are looking at many offensive options, possibly as many as 10. Morneau, 31, has somewhat bounced back to a .260/.322/.457 line after a 2011 season lost to concussion symptoms and other injuries. He has $5MM in salary remaining this year and is owed $14MM in 2013.
- The Athletics' top two choices for a shortstop upgrade are still Stephen Drew of the Diamondbacks and Yunel Escobar of the Blue Jays. The A's remain interested in Padres third baseman Chase Headley as well, but Heyman finds a match unlikely.
- The Mets have talked about Geovany Soto of the Cubs, Kelly Shoppach of the Red Sox, and Ramon Hernandez of the Rockies, but the prices are too high on these catchers. Heyman says the Mets may be willing to delay their catcher search until the winter.