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Miles Mikolas Has Fallen Off

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The Cardinals signed free-agent right-hander Miles Mikolas to a two-year, $15.5MM guarantee in what became one of the wisest moves of the 2017-18 offseason. Although hardly a bank-breaking commitment, it was somewhat of a gamble for St. Louis. After all, Mikolas was an unspectacular major leaguer with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14 who then spent three years pitching in Japan. Mikolas was dominant overseas, though, and he carried that excellence into 2018 in St. Louis.

During his first year with the Cardinals, Mikolas pitched to an outstanding 2.83 ERA/3.28 FIP in 200 2/3 innings. While Mikolas only struck out 6.55 batters per nine, he walked a mere 1.3 and induced ground balls at a 49.3 percent clip. Mikolas’ stinginess in the walk and fly ball departments helped lead to a 4.3 fWAR, which ranked 12th among major league starters.

Sold on Mikolas’ output last season, the Cardinals signed him to an extension worth a guaranteed $68MM for four years back in February. That deal will keep Mikolas under wraps through 2023, but unfortunately for the Cardinals, it’s not looking like a great move so far. Facing the lowly Marlins on Wednesday, Mikolas allowed five earned runs on eight hits in five innings, thereby raising his ERA to 4.83 in 78 1/3 frames this season. His 4.74 FIP isn’t much better.

Mikolas’ 2019 woes haven’t come because of significant declines in the strikeout, walk, groundball or BABIP categories. Those numbers look almost the same compared to last season, though there has been a noticeable drop in his strike rate. Nobody posted a higher strike percentage than Mikolas’ 69.3 a year ago, but the figure has fallen to 65.8 in 2019. Meanwhile, Mikolas’ strand rate has decreased by a large margin (from 76.2 percent to 70.9), and he has been far more prone to surrendering long balls.

After yielding home runs on a meager 9.2 percent of fly balls in 2018, Mikolas is all the way up to 19.7 this season. It hasn’t helped that Mikolas’ infield fly rate has plummeted from 9.8 percent to 4.2. At the same time, his hard-hit rate has climbed by greater than 5 percent, according to FanGraphs, while Statcast indicates his average exit velocity against has hopped from 85.4 mph to 88.2. Consequently, Mikolas’ weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has shot from .271/.286 to .339/.347.

So why the newfound contact management issues? For one, Mikolas isn’t fooling as many hitters this year, as they’ve chased 5 percent fewer pitches than they did last season. And left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Mikolas, who held them to a .309 wOBA last season but has seen the number jump to .396 this year. As seen in these FanGraphs heatmaps (2018, ’19), he’s not staying away against lefties as well he did last season.

Worsening matters, Mikolas’ once-elite slider has been ineffective, and he has leaned on it less as a result. While Mikolas’ slider was one of the most valuable pitches of its kind a year ago, per FanGraphs, it has taken colossal steps backward this season. Batters posted a measly .201/.231 wOBA/xwOBA versus the offering in his first year in St. Louis, but they’re up to .395/.329 in the current campaign. If we’re to take that 66-point gap in face value, there has been some poor fortune involved. However, it simply hasn’t been close to as lethal as it was in 2018, perhaps owing to a 1 mph drop in velocity and somewhat of a change in typical location (heatmaps via FanGraphs: ’18, ’19).

Contrary to last season, when Mikolas’ slider helped him perform like one of the majors’ top starters, troubling signs abound for the 2019 version of the righty. His struggles are a key reason why the Cardinals have gotten off to a mediocre start and are on track to miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season. That’s not what the Redbirds had in mind when they bought high on Mikolas over the winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Who Will Win The NL Central?

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The National League Central looked like a three-team race at the beginning of the season, and not much has changed two months into the campaign. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – the most hyped clubs in the division coming into the year – are at the top. After winning the division a year ago, the Brewers are 39-29, a half-game better than the Cubs. The Cardinals are a less impressive 33-33, five games back, though they’re certainly not out of the race. Meanwhile, the Reds and Pirates are eight and nine games behind, respectively. Neither looked likely to challenge for the NL Central at the outset of the season. They haven’t done anything to change anyone’s mind yet.

Led by reigning MVP right fielder Christian Yelich, brilliant free-agent acquisition Yasmani Grandal and offseason re-signing Mike Moustakas, the Brewers boast one of the majors’ most valuable groups of position players.  Their pitching hasn’t been as useful, on the other hand, as a rotation that was devoid of an ace entering the season has dealt with ineffectiveness and injuries throughout the year. However, the team still features elite reliever Josh Hader, with Jeremy Jeffress and Adrian Houser among those supporting him.

The Cubs’ position player mix has been even better than the Brewers’ this year, largely because Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and David Bote have each offered strong production. Chicago’s rotation is probably better equipped, too, as Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are all proven commodities. Although, Yu Darvish hasn’t rebounded as hoped in his second year as a Cub. Darvish & Co. have handed off to a bullpen that hasn’t been lights-out this year, but it’s about to welcome all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel, whom the Cubs signed to a three-year, $43MM contract last week. Kimbrel would have been a match for the Brewers, making it all the more beneficial for the Cubs that they landed him (on paper, at least).

As for the Cardinals, they’ve fallen short of expectations after trading for ex-Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt, one of the premier position players in recent memory, and signing reliever Andrew Miller in the offseason. Both players have logged somewhat disappointing production to date, though Goldschmidt’s still an imposing presence and Miller has improved after a rocky start. Regardless, neither the Cardinals’ cast of hitters nor their relief corps is their most pressing issue. It’s their rotation, which hasn’t gotten high-end numbers from anyone. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have gone backward after impressive showings in 2018, while Dakota Hudson’s peripherals portend trouble. Adam Wainwright’s much closer to average than ace-like these days (and he’s now on the injured list with a hamstring issue), and nobody has nailed down the fifth spot in the Redbirds’ starting staff.

Considering the talent peppered throughout the Cardinals’ roster, it would be foolhardy to rule them out as potential division winners this season. Furthermore, with the trade deadline still yet to occur, St. Louis or anyone else in the division could put itself over the top with a shrewd acquisition(s) leading up to July 31. For now, though, the edge clearly belongs to the Cubs and the Brewers. FanGraphs currently projects the NL Central to finish in this order: Cubs (91-71), Brewers (87-75), Cardinals (83-79), Reds (78-84), Pirates (75-87). How do you expect it to shake out?

(Poll link for app users)

Who will win the NL Central?
Brewers 43.50% (5,171 votes)
Cubs 32.24% (3,832 votes)
Cardinals 10.54% (1,253 votes)
Reds 9.51% (1,130 votes)
Pirates 4.21% (500 votes)
Total Votes: 11,886

Free Agent Stock Watch: Josh Donaldson

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Third baseman Josh Donaldson was one of the majors’ elite players from 2013-17, a five-year, 3,270-plate appearance span with the Athletics and Blue Jays in which he ranked second only to Mike Trout in fWAR (34.4). Donaldson slashed .282/.377/.524 along the way and placed fifth in wRC+ (148) and sixth in home runs (164). In 2015, his best season during that stretch, Donaldson smashed 41 homers en route to American League MVP honors. Four years later, though, it’s highly questionable whether Donaldson will ever approach the MVP conversation again.

After an injury-limited 2018 season with the Jays and Indians, with whom he combined for a solid but unspectacular .246/.352/.449 line (117 wRC+) in 52 games and 219 trips to the plate, Donaldson headed to the NL via free agency this past winter. While he only inked a one-year contract with the Braves, they gave him $23MM in hopes he’d rekindle his glory years. However, two-plus months into the season, his production hasn’t matched his expensive salary.

The 33-year-old Donaldson turned in a 1-for-4 performance in a win over the Pirates on Thursday, contributing to a .236/.349/.419 line in 269 PA this season. While Donaldson has been a durable option for the Braves so far, his wRC+ only rates 5 percent above league average – his worst mark since his rookie year with the A’s in 2012. Having hit nine home runs, Donaldson’s on pace for 21, which would be his fewest in a full season. And Donaldson’s current ISO (.187) would also go down as his worst over a full campaign.

One of the problems, it seems, is that Donaldson’s not hitting enough fly balls. Donaldson’s pulling the ball more than ever, but that’s not particularly beneficial if he’s not elevating it. Although Donaldson was one of the game’s most notable spokesmen of its fly ball revolution during his heyday, his FB rate in 2019 (34 percent) is 8-plus percent lower than where it was in 2017 and checks in nearly 2 percent below league average. It’s unfortunate, too, because Donaldson’s 97.7 mph exit velocity on flies and line drives ranks 10th in the majors this year, according to Statcast. Donaldson’s 93 mph exit velo on all batted balls sits an even better ninth, though there’s not a ton of value in hitting hard grounders – especially when you possess below-average speed.

Beyond Donaldson’s batted-ball profile, his increasing strikeout rate presents more bad news. Donaldson has gone down on strikes 28.3 percent of the time this season, up from 18.4 percent during his half-decade stretch of greatness. To his credit, Donaldson’s somewhat offsetting that with a high walk rate (13.8 percent). However, he’s chasing more pitches than ever outside the strike zone, swinging and missing more than he has since his 34-PA debut in 2010, and making far less contact than he did in his star-level years.

Left-handed pitchers, whom the righty-swinging Donaldson has pulverized throughout his career, have been especially tough on him this year. He has slashed a horrid .167/.335/.229 against southpaws, who have stifled his power (ISO heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2010-18; 2019), in part because he’s no longer offering much resistance against offspeed pitches.

Adding everything up, Donaldson’s weighted on-base average and expected wOBA (.340/.354) indicate he’s still a quality producer at the plate. Beyond that, with three Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner this season, Donaldson’s still capable of handling his position. But Donaldson’s not the All-Star performer he was in Oakland and Toronto, and he hasn’t done a lot in Atlanta to help his stock as he gears up for a second straight trip to free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

How Many Trade Chips Do The Tigers Actually Have?

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In case you haven’t noticed, the Tigers are rebuilding. General manager Al Avila has spoken often in the past about the need to build toward a better tomorrow, and he was frank during Spring Training about Nicholas Castellanos’ trade candidacy. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi wrote today that the Tigers are willing to listen on veteran players, but that’s already a well-known fact — not exactly a new revelation.

The greater question is: just how many appealing pieces do the Tigers even possess? Morosi lists the usual suspects, citing Castellanos, Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene as potentially movable assets. Beyond that trio, appeal in Detroit veterans will be limited.

Most of the one-year signees the Tigers added over the winter have minimal value because they’re on the injured list and/or performing poorly. Josh Harrison underwent hamstring surgery this month and didn’t hit when healthy. His double-play partner, Jordy Mercer, is on the IL for the second time and has turned in the worst offensive rates of his career in the 19 games he’s managed to play. Tyson Ross is out indefinitely. Matt Moore looked great for two starts… before he had season-ending knee surgery. Jordan Zimmermann’s contract has looked impossible to move since 2016, and now he has a UCL injury (though he’s trying to pitch through it). Miguel Cabrera? No one was touching that contract even before the Tigers announced the “chronic changes” to his knee that will impact the rest of Cabrera’s career. Aside from Greene, the bullpen’s numbers aren’t especially impressive.

Detroit does have a pair of somewhat interesting, relatively young options it could market in addition to Boyd, Greene and Castellanos, although neither is anywhere near free agency.

Super-utilityman Niko Goodrum has played all four infield positions and all three outfield slots since the Tigers picked him up as a minor league free agent in the 2017-18 offseason. In 740 plate appearances as a Tiger, Goodrum has batted .241/.315/.419 with 22 homers and 16 steals. This season, his average exit velocity (89.3 mph) is in the 77th percentile, while his average sprint speed is in the 93rd percentile of MLB players, per Statcast. In some respects, he’s like Detroit’s version of Marwin Gonzalez — albeit with a lesser overall track record. He’s controlled for four years beyond 2019, so there’s no urgency to move him, but teams looking for a versatile upgrade on the bench could look at Goodrum as an intriguing possibility.

In the outfield, Detroit has seen JaCoby Jones explode at the plate recently. On May 4, the 27-year-old Jones’ OPS sat at a lowly .413. In 127 plate appearances since that time, he’s mashed to the tune of a .315/.389/.595 slash with 16 extra-base hits (eight doubles, a triple, seven homers) and a perfect 5-for-5 in the stolen base column. He’s had his share of BABIP luck, but Jones’ K/BB numbers have improved over that stretch as well. Contact seems like it’ll always be an issue, but there’s a fairly interesting blend of power and speed with Jones. Stastcast puts him in elite company (93rd percentile) both in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. He’s in the 81st percentile in terms of sprint speed.

Defensively, Jones was excellent in 2018 (10 DRS, +6.1 UZR, 7 Outs Above Average), but those same metrics have soured on his center field glovework in 2019 (-7, -6.4 and 0, respectively). Like Goodrum, he’s controllable through 2023. I don’t know that teams are going to line up to acquire Jones based on what amounts to five weeks of strong offensive output, but he’s at least worth monitoring over the next several weeks. There aren’t going to be too many appealing center fielders on the trade market, after all.

As for the three most logical chips — Boyd, Greene and Castellanos — they’ll face varying levels of interest. Boyd is appealing to any club within a stone’s throw of contending, as he’s in the midst of what looks to be a legitimate breakout season. The 28-year-old is controlled through 2022 and has thus far pitched to a 3.08 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. Fielding-independent metrics are buying him as a breakout star (2.91 FIP, 3.20 SIERA), and only five qualified pitchers have a better K-BB% than Boyd’s 26.2 percent mark. The cost to acquire him should be enormous, given the time he’s still controlled.

Greene won’t carry as high a price tag, given that he’s controlled through 2020. But he’s sitting on a 1.00 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (27.4 percent), walk percentage (6.6 percent) and ground-ball rate (52.2 percent). He’s unequivocally elevated his stock in 2019, making the Tigers’ decision not to move him at last year’s deadline look wise. Like Boyd, Greene is appealing to any contender.

Castellanos, meanwhile, faces a less robust market. Defensive metrics suggest he’s improved in right field but is still below average there. More concerning is the fact that Castellanos hasn’t hit that much in 2019. His 21 doubles lead the AL, but his overall .263/.315/.454 slash is roughly league average, per OPS+ and wRC+, and he’s on pace for fewer home runs than last year’s 23. Casteallnos has seen his line-drive rate dip by more than seven percent, and his hard-hit rate has fallen off a bit as well. Corner bat rentals never yield all that great a return these days — as the Tigers learned in trading J.D. Martinez two years ago — and Castellanos’ downturn in production won’t help the team’s cause. There’s certainly time for a rebound, but it’s tough to see Castellanos fetching a sizable return even if his bat wakes up in the next few weeks.

The general expectation is that the Tigers will continue their tear-down this summer, but the pieces they have to market, in the end, aren’t that plentiful. Greene seems like a lock to be moved for a decent haul, and because Castellanos isn’t playing like a qualifying offer candidate, it’s probably best to move him even if the return is modest. But the Tigers’ best asset, Boyd, is controlled for three more years and the only other somewhat interesting pieces are controlled even longer. If the team doesn’t move Boyd between now and July 31, the summer market might not boost the Tigers’ farm as much as fans would hope.

Ketel Marte Elevates, Celebrates

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Ketel Marte joined the Diamondbacks in November 2016 as part of a blockbuster trade with the Mariners. At the time, Marte wasn’t regarded as the biggest piece of the deal – one that also featured Jean Segura, Taijuan Walker and a pre-breakout Mitch Haniger – but he has evolved into an indispensable piece for the Diamondbacks.

Baseball America considered Marte one of the majors’ 50 best prospects when the Mariners promoted him to the majors in 2015. The switch-hitting middle infielder lived up to the billing initially, as he slashed .283/.351/.402 (112 wRC+) with 1.8 fWAR during a 57-game, 247-plate appearance debut. Marte sharply declined in Year 2, though, and the Mariners deemed him expendable after he accounted for minus-0.4 fWAR in 466 trips to the plate that season.

On the heels of his trade to Arizona, the D-backs elected to slow cook Marte. They kept him at the Triple-A level the first few months of the 2017 campaign, during which he raked, before calling him up at the end of June. Marte didn’t log world-beating production over his two months in Arizona that year, but he impressed the organization enough for it to award him a five-year, $24MM guarantee heading into 2018. The extension appeared to be a shrewd choice on the D-backs’ part last year, when Marte hit .260/.332/.437 (104 wRC+) with 2.5 fWAR in 580 PA, and now it looks downright brilliant.

With 2.4 fWAR in 294 plate trips, Marte’s already on the verge of surpassing his career-high total in mid-June. His value has largely come from a massive uptick in power. The 25-year-old entered the season with 22 major league home runs, including 14 in 2018, but has already added 17 to his ledger thus far. And Marte’s isolated power number (.258) dwarfs the below-average .126 he posted from 2015-18.

Like many other hitters, Marte’s profiting from more of a fly ball-oriented approach. His flies are up almost 9 percent over his career mark, his grounders are down nearly 8 percent, and he’s pulling more pitches than ever. Since his last year in Seattle, when Marte hit a mere one homer and managed a similarly weak .064 ISO, his exit velocity on fly balls and line drives has risen almost 7 mph.

The changes Marte has made since he switched organizations have helped lead to a meaty .284/.332/.542 line (122 wRC+) this season. Better still, his increased output looks relatively sustainable. Marte’s not a product of his ballpark, having hit better outside Chase Field, and has recorded above-average production from both sides of the plate. His walk rate’s a below-average 6.4 percent, down from 9.3 last season, though he has never been a BB king (sorry). While Marte has swung more – including outside the strike zone – and made less contact than he did in 2018, his still-low 16.1 percent strikeout rate indicates he’s not totally selling out for gains in the power department.

In further good news, Marte’s .288 batting average on balls in play isn’t on the lucky side – particularly for a fast runner who hits the ball with authority. His exit velocity (90.9 mph), expected batting average (.287), expected slugging percentage (.516) and expected weighted on-base average (.361, compared to a .365 real wOBA) all rank in the league’s 77th percentile or higher, according to Statcast. And Marte hasn’t been vulnerable versus any offering, having registered an xwOBA between .342 and .401 against fastballs, offspeed pitches and breaking balls.

Adding everything up, it appears the Diamondbacks have a solid offensive presence in Marte. Not only that, but he has morphed into a multi-positional defensive building block. After saving seven runs as a full-time second baseman last year, Marte has combined for another seven this season – including six as a center fielder. The all-around package is an enviable one for Arizona, which looks as if it will continue to benefit from its choice to lock up Marte at set prices for the foreseeable future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Is Chris Archer Broken?

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The Pirates decided last July to trade two of their prized young players, outfielder Austin Meadows and right-hander Tyler Glasnow, to the Rays for veteran righty Chris Archer. The Bucs took the gamble because they thought they were acquiring a top-of-the-rotation arm in Archer. That isn’t what they’ve gotten, though, and the deal now looks like one of the most lopsided swaps in recent memory. Not only have Meadows and Glasnow broken out in Tampa Bay, but Archer has taken enormous steps backward in his new home.

On Tuesday, in his 21st start as a Pirate, Archer yielded seven earned runs on eight hits – including five home runs – in six innings against the Braves. The Pirates lost the game, unsurprisingly, and continue to look as if they’ll miss the playoffs for the second straight year with Archer on their roster. With a 5.06 ERA/5.14 FIP in 112 innings in Pittsburgh, the 30-year-old Archer has been detrimental to the team’s cause.

At least this season, Archer hasn’t come close to resembling the pitcher who posted a 3.69 ERA/3.48 FIP in 1,063 frames as a Ray. Among 118 starters who have thrown 50-plus innings in 2019, Archer ranks last in home run-to-fly ball rate (24.6 percent), fourth worst in FIP (6.15) and walks per nine (4.53), and 11th from the bottom in ERA (5.73). While Archer has fanned 9.2 batters per nine, even that’s below his 2015-18 output.

Looking beyond Archer’s basic production, alarming signs abound. His groundball rate, which has sat in the mid-40s for most of his career, is down to 38.6 percent. In turn, Archer’s fly ball rate has climbed to a career-worst 39.2 percent. That partially explains why he’s running an HR-to-FB rate nearly twice his lifetime figure.

Likewise, it doesn’t appear a change in repertoire has helped Archer’s cause. Per Baseball Savant, Archer turned to a slider (41.7 percent), four-seam fastball (36.4), sinker (10.5) and changeup (9.9) as his primary offerings last year. That has remained the case, though his usage – slider (34.8 percent), four-seamer (27.7), sinker (22.0) and change (13.6) – now looks much different. Hitters’ production against Archer’s slider and change has mostly stayed the same since last year. But they’re tattooing Archer’s sinker, a pitch the Pirates had him resurrect, having put up a .523 weighted on-base average/.522 xwOBA against it, and abusing his four-seamer (.380/.453). Archer has lost velocity on both pitches, and his typical location has changed since a year ago (heatmaps via FanGraphs: four-seamer: 2018, ’19; sinker: 2018, ’19)

As for Archer’s suddenly hideous walk rate, it’s easy to identify causes. After ranking 45th among 121 qualifiers in strike rate last year, he’s down to 93rd out of 127 this season. He’s also running his lowest chase, first-pitch and swinging-strike rates since 2016. When Archer’s not doling out walks, he’s surrendering damaging contact. He ranks in the league’s 24th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected batting average against, expected weighted on-base average against and expected slugging percentage against. While Archer’s .361 wOBA against is subpar, his .379 xwOBA paints an even bleaker picture.

As much as Archer has struggled this season, his pre-Pittsburgh track record earns him some benefit of the doubt. Considering what he accomplished as a Ray, it would be unwise to say Archer’s never going to rebound. However, it doesn’t appear his new sinker-heavy approach is working, nor does his once-bargain contract look all that appealing anymore. With $20MM in team options over the next two years ($9MM in 2020, $11MM in ’21), Archer’s not going to crush the Pirates’ payroll structure. However, as a low-budget team, they can’t afford to have one of their most expensive players continue to falter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Rays May Have Another Cy Young Contender

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After a strong two-season run in Houston, right-hander Charlie Morton entered free agency last winter as one of the best starters available. Interest in Morton was widespread, thanks in part to the Astros’ decision not to issue him a qualifying offer, though age (35) prevented him from reeling in a long-term deal. Morton ultimately accepted a two-year, $30MM offer from the Rays in December. Six months later, it’s looking like one of the steals of the offseason.

Facing the Athletics on Monday, Morton turned in his second consecutive seven-inning shutout and fourth straight quality start. During that four-appearance, 27-inning rampage, Morton yielded a mere three earned runs on 14 hits and posted 31 strikeouts against four walks. The Rays won all of those games, giving them a 10-4 record when Morton has taken the ball this season. Thanks in part to low-budget Tampa Bay’s decision to splurge (by its standards) on Morton, its sporting one of the American League’s leading records at 41-26

While Morton’s recent production has no doubt boosted his numbers, he has been consistently good all season. Morton’s ERA hasn’t risen any higher than 3.60, where it sat after his initial start of the season, and now rests at a microscopic 2.10. He trails only the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi among AL starters in that category, and most of his other production also ranks near the very top of his league. Take a look…

  • FIP: 2.67 (second)
  • WAR: 2.6 (fourth)
  • xFIP: 3.33 (fourth)
  • Weighted on-base average against: .254 (fifth)
  • Strikeouts per nine: 10.84 (seventh)
  • Expected weighted on-base average against: .271 (seventh)
  • Innings: 81 1/3 (15th)

The least impressive figure there is Morton’s innings total, though it still represents a step forward for someone who has long battled durability issues. Morton has never thrown 175 innings in a season, but he’s on pace for almost 200 this year.

We can’t necessarily call this a late-career renaissance because, with all due respect to Morton, his time in the majors wasn’t rife with great moments before he got to Houston. However, a significant rise in Morton’s fastball velocity in 2016 with the Phillies was likely the beginning of his awakening. Unfortunately for Morton and the Phillies, a hamstring tear late that April brought a quick conclusion to his season and, for all intents and purposes, an end to his short run in Philly. He headed to the Astros the next season, which began a 313 1/2-inning stretch of 3.36 ERA/3.53 FIP pitching, and helped the team to a World Series title in 2017.

It was somewhat of a surprise that Houston didn’t make more of an effort to retain Morton after last season, but the Rays have been the beneficiaries of the Astros’ choice. The Rays have gotten a different pitcher than the Astros’ version of Morton, not just in terms of results.

The hard-throwing Morton’s main pitch in 2018 was his four-seam fastball, which he threw at a 31.1 percent rate, according to Statcast. He complemented it with a curveball (29.3 percent), a sinker (27.1), a splitter (6.3) and a cutter (6.3). Now, he’s throwing his curve (36 percent) significantly more than any other pitch, with his sinker (24.2), four-seamer (23.5), cutter (11.8) and splitter (4.4) checking in as his secondary offerings. Morton has lost some velocity since last year, which could at least partially explain his change in approach. At the same time, though, if your curve’s as dominant as his, why not throw it as much as possible? The pitch ranks in the league’s 94th percentile as far as spin rate goes, per Statcast, and hitters have mustered a putrid .142/.170 wOBA/xwOBA against it. According to FanGraphs’ pitch values, it’s the premier curve in the AL.

If Morton continues to use his curve this effectively, he may end up in serious contention for the AL Cy Young just one year after fellow Ray Blake Snell won it. In the event Morton wins the award, he and Snell would become the first AL teammates to take home the honor in back-to-back seasons since the Indians’ CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee accomplished the feat in 2007-08. Even better for the Rays, Morton, Snell, Tyler Glasnow (if he returns from the injured list) and opener Ryne Stanek could make for a dominant postseason rotation should the team team clinch a playoff spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Is There A Trade Market For Edwin Encarnacion?

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In last week’s chat, I was asked which MLB player would be the next to be moved via trade. My mind immediately went to one place: the Mariners. GM Jerry Dipoto’s reputation precedes him. And he’s in a dealing mood, having already swung one deal on an expensive veteran and tried to work out another. But when it came to naming the specific player, it seemed too pedestrian to guess starter Mike Leake, who has already come up in talks, or pick an easy-come, easy-go reliever.

Instead, I went with veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion, a long-time star who has been out of the spotlight of late. He’s hitting well, sure, but does EE even have a strong market right now? Let’s take a closer look.

The M’s ended up with Encarnacion when the music stopped on a dizzying game of lumbering slugger musical chairs over the offseason. It seemed at one point he’d be shipped elsewhere over the winter, but that didn’t come to pass. He is earning a $20MM salary this year. There’s also a $5MM buyout on a 2020 option, though the complicated trade that brought Encarnacion to Seattle included a $5MM payment to cover that amount.

With that kind of coin still owed, Encarnacion’s contract is unquestionably under water. He’s 36 years old and was merely good at the plate last year. He has mostly been limited to DH duties in recent seasons, though he has lined up at first base thus far in 2019 with palatable metrics.

On the other hand, Encarnacion can really hit. He’s back in business thus far, making the ’18 output look like a minor blip. Through 283 plate appearances, Encarnacion carries a .246/.360/.542 slash — that’s good for a healthy 143 wRC+ — and leads the American League with 21 round-trippers.

The M’s won’t shed all the remaining money owed, but they could well dump a significant portion of it. There’s even an argument to be made that the ’20 club option could be worthwhile; given the hefty buyout price, the $20MM rate of pay is effectively a $15MM decision. The Twins spent $14.3MM on Nelson Cruz this past winter and certainly don’t regret it.

The supply situation seems generally favorable for Seattle. For teams looking for serious lineup punch, there’s a relative dearth of obvious targets. The market hasn’t yet settled out, but it’s tough to imagine a better win-now DH/1B candidate being made available at this stage of the season (if at all, at least at a palatable price).

How much money the Seattle org will save, and/or what it can achieve in terms of prospects, will depend upon Dipoto’s ability to drum up interest from multiple teams. So how do things look from the demand side?

American League teams make for a natural fit, given Encarnacion’s defensive limitations. But it’s possible that NL clubs will also consider him, particularly since they’ve had a chance to see him play first base extensively this year. Most plausibly, the Brewers could pull the plug on the struggling Jesus Aguilar and replace him with Encarnacion. Some would argue the team should prioritize pitching, but there’s real potential for improvement here as well. Plus, it’d answer the rival Cubs’ recent signing of Craig Kimbrel — and give the Brew Crew a big righty bat to slot in against the Cubbies’ lefty-heavy rotation. You really have to squint to see any other National League outfits matching at present, but several could make sense depending upon injuries and other developments over the coming weeks.

Turning to the AL side of the ledger, Encarnacion would actually match up nicely with the team that just dealt him away. Carlos Santana has thrived since making his own return to the Indians, but the team still desperately needs more punch and could hand the DH slot right back to EE. While he fits on the roster, Encarnacion probably won’t squeeze into the payroll.

There’s perhaps also an argument for the Rangers to take a look. If they’re going to slug their way into the Wild Card, they may as well go whole-hog, and Ronald Guzman has been below-average at the plate. But it’d be a bit of an odd move for a team that is desperate for starting pitching and likely doesn’t want to expend too much cash (and certainly won’t want to give up future value) on a season that may well fizzle out.

The Yankees haven’t received the bounce back they hoped for from Kendrys Morales, but he’s also just a temporary fix. It’d be an unexpected splurge to go for Encarnacion with Luke Voit holding down the fort at first, multiple major bats on the rehab trail, and needs elsewhere.

What about the scuffling defending champs? The Red Sox are actually a somewhat interesting fit, but only if they’re willing to utilize Encarnacion at first base and further boost their league-high spending levels. Steve Pearce has collapsed at the plate. Mitch Moreland has hit well from the left side but is hurt. Michael Chavis has hit a lull; he’d also still be an option at second base with the addition of Encarnacion.

How about the Rays, who are tied atop the AL East with the Yanks and will need to max out their resources down the stretch? The Tampa Bay org is getting solid value from Ji-Man Choi at first base, with Yandy Diaz sliding over from third to handle lefties. There’s not a huge DH need since the club has a bit of a corner outfield surplus with Avisail Garcia, Tommy Pham, and Austin Meadows. That said, there’s some window for a deal since Choi and top hitting prospect Nate Lowe are both lefty hitters. The club will surely also consider putting its money and prospects to work to add pitching, but a move for Encarnacion is well worth considering.

The Astros may be the best fit, all things considered. It’s a team that sometimes seems to have it all, but there are caveats. Right now, the ’Stros aren’t healthy, and it’d be preferable to ensure the offense keeps producing while the team awaits the returns of some star players. More importantly, there is a rather notable roster opening in the slugger department. Encarnacion was reputedly on the Houston radar before the season and he ought to be an even bigger target now, with Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White both producing at subpar rates. Even if Yordan Alvarez grabs hold of the DH spot, Encarnacion could step in at first base. This possibility is especially tempting to contemplate since it could help the Houston organization form up a historically exceptional lineup in time for the postseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Yasiel Puig

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Looking to return to relevance and break their five-year playoff drought in 2019, the Reds operated aggressively on the trade market during the offseason. The club swung multiple noteworthy deals, including a swap with the Dodgers in which they netted outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp and left-hander Alex Wood. So far, though, that trade hasn’t delivered the on-field value the Reds wanted. They released Kemp in early May after he got off to a miserable start, while Wood hasn’t taken the field at all because of a back injury. That leaves Puig, who was perhaps the Reds’ biggest acquisition of the offseason. To this point, however, the 28-year-old has been a bust in Cincinnati.

Having signed a seven-year, $42MM contract with the Dodgers back in 2012, when he left Cuba for the majors, Puig already cashed in once earlier in his career. Although Puig was inconsistent in LA, he lived up to his pact as a member of the Dodgers, with whom he slashed .279/.353/.478 (129 wRC+) and totaled 108 home runs, 60 steals and 16.7 fWAR over 2,765 plate appearances from 2013-18.

The Reds were surely expecting Dodgers-esque production from Puig, but instead, he has managed a terrible .212/.256/.385 line with 11 HRs in 242 trips to the plate. His 63 wRC+ is eighth worst among 170 hitters who have amassed at least 200 PA.

Unfortunately for Puig and the Reds, his massive downturn in offensive production isn’t simply a byproduct of bad luck. Sure, Puig’s measly .230 batting average on balls in play is likely to climb, and his weighted on-base average (.270) sits far below his expected wOBA (.312). Nevertheless, Puig ranks around the middle or lower half of the league in xwOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate, according to Statcast. The right-hander’s also walking at a career-worst rate, striking out more than ever, chasing way more pitches outside the zone, not making nearly enough contact and, for the first time, getting stymied by same-handed pitchers. Relative to last season (heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2018, 2019), righties have been operating less in the middle of the plate against Puig, who hasn’t been able to come up with an answer.

When Puig has put the bat on the ball this season, the majority of his connections have ended up in the air. However, while many players have benefited from elevating the ball more, the opposite has been true for Puig. He’s racking up far more flies and far fewer grounders than he ever has, but that isn’t a great approach if you’re not hitting the ball with authority. Puig’s exit velocity on flies and line drives has fallen from 93.7 mph to 91.7 since last year, while his mean FB distance has dropped from 328 feet to 316.

It’s clear Puig’s offensive game is suddenly rife with red flags, though he has remained a capable defender and base runner in Cincinnati. Since his MLB career began, Puig has logged 44 Defensive Runs Saved with a 12.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, including four and 1.3 in those categories as a right fielder this season. Meanwhile, even though his sprint speed has decreased, Puig has swiped nine bases on 11 attempts.

Although it’s nice that Puig can flash the leather and run the bases, his ability to produce at the plate has been his calling card thus far. And if Puig doesn’t rebound in that aspect soon, it’s going to further drive his trade value into the ground as the July 31 deadline approaches. Worsening matters for Puig, it could make it difficult for him to secure anything more than a one-year, prove-it deal upon reaching the open market in the winter. With Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, Corey Dickerson and perhaps Kole Calhoun also among corner outfielders set to hit free agency, Puig will have serious competition off what could go down as a nightmarish platform season for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

This Date In Transactions History: Cubs Land Jorge Soler

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It has been seven years since the Cubs landed a player they thought would become a long-term linchpin. On June 11, 2012, they won the bidding for free-agent Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler. At least a few teams bid upward of $20MM for Soler, who had just turned 20 a few months prior, but Chicago emerged victorious with a nine-year, $30MM offer. At the time, Soler was seen as a top 50 prospect in the sport.

The power-hitting Soler tore through the Cubs’ minor league system beginning the summer he signed and wound up debuting in Chicago two years later. When the Cubs promoted him late in the 2014 season, Soler was even more of a celebrated prospect. He justified the hype initially, slashing a strong .292/.330/.573 (148 wRC+) with five home runs in 97 plate appearances. Thanks to that run, Soler cemented himself as the Cubs’ everyday right fielder heading into 2015; however, his numbers took a dive that season, during which he hit .262/.324/.399 (95 wRC+) with 10 homers in 404 trips to the plate.

Despite his underwhelming output in 2015, Soler was once again in the Cubs’ season-opening lineup in ’16. The franchise ultimately won its first World Series in 108 years that season, but Soler didn’t play a huge role. While Soler turned in decent production in the regular campaign and the playoffs, injuries helped limit him to 264 PA during the season. After celebrating their championship that fall, the Cubs elected to part with Soler, deciding there was no longer a place for him in an outfield that also had Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay and Matt Szczur in the fold.

On Dec. 7, 2016, just over a month after it won the World Series, Chicago traded Soler to the Royals for reliever Wade Davis. Although Davis only had another year of control left, the Cubs needed a replacement for departed closer Aroldis Chapman. That helped deem Soler expendable in the Cubs’ eyes, and though Davis lasted just one season in their uniform, they haven’t really missed Soler.

Since he joined the Royals in 2017, Soler has batted .234/.310/.450 (101 wRC+) and swatted 28 HRs in 633 attempts. Soler was particularly subpar during his first year in KC, in which he endured a lengthy minor league demotion, but bounced back in 2018 before suffering a season-ending left toe fracture in mid-June. In his return from that injury, Soler’s once again giving the Royals respectable offensive production this season, though his paltry .293 on-base percentage somewhat overshadows his 17 homers. The same is true of Soler’s defense (minus-7 DRS, minus-2.0 UZR), which has graded negatively for most of his time in the majors.

Considering how much excitement there was when Soler signed with the Cubs, the 27-year-old has posted a somewhat disappointing big league career. Soler may move on to a third team soon, given rumors that the non-contending Royals are open to trading just about anyone on their roster. Wherever he plays next season, it’ll be the final year of the contract Soler agreed to with the Cubs seven years ago.

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