Starlin Castro: Back From The Abyss
As cliched as it sounds, this truly has been a tale of two seasons for Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro. Back on July 2, I wrote a piece titled “Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season.” At that point, the four-time All-Star was in the throes of one of the worst years of anyone in baseball. He was a .230/.258/.313 hitter whose 51 wRC+ ranked last among qualified hitters and whose minus-1.2 fWAR was also at the absolute bottom of the sport. Since that date, though, Castro has rescued his season – an especially fortuitous development for someone who’s likely headed for free agency in another couple months.
This will hardly go down as a banner year for Castro, whose sorry first half has doomed him to a .270/.298/.420 line with an 87 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR through 597 plate appearances. But the 29-year-old has quietly been among the majors’ most effective position players going back to the beginning of July. Since then, Castro has batted .324/.353/.567 in 252 trips to the plate. The 138 wRC+ he has posted ties him with Mets first baseman and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso, while the 2.0 fWAR Castro has accrued puts him in company with MVP candidates Cody Bellinger and Ronald Acuna Jr., among other big-time producers.
So what’s behind Castro’s radical change in production? A massive upswing in power seems to be the obvious answer. When Castro was one of the game’s least effective hitters, he managed a pitiful .083 ISO – the game’s third-lowest figure – and just four home runs. Over the past couple months, though, Castro’s ISO has climbed to .244, and he has swatted 13 homers. As always, Castro has drawn few walks and struck out less than most players. However, a more aggressive, power-driven approach has led to a drastic turnaround. Take a look…
Castro before July:
- Groundball percentage: 52.2
- Fly ball percentage: 30.9
- Line drive percentage: 16.7
- Pull percentage: 40.8
- Infield fly percentage: 10.7
- Hard-hit percentage (per FanGraphs): 40.1
Castro since:
- Groundball percentage: 43.9
- Flyball percentage: 33.3
- Line drive percentage: 22.7
- Pull percentage: 49.5
- Infield fly percentage: 7.6
- Hard-hit percentage: 43.4
All of the above bodes well for an increase in power, making it no surprise Castro’s home run-to-fly ball rate has risen from a meager 6.0 percent to 19.7 since he began digging himself out of an enormous hole earlier in the summer. The success has come with less selectivity for Castro, whose swing rate has climbed from 47.6 percent to 51.3 in the past couple months. At the same time, Castro has made less contact and swung and missed more, but it hasn’t mattered. The rise in meaningful contact has helped beget a sizable gain in batting average on balls in play (from .262 to .346). While there may be good fortune baked into the new number, it’s closer to Castro’s career figure than his first-half mark. Dating back to his MLB debut in 2010, the former Cub and Yankee has recorded a .320 BABIP. Moreover, Castro has registered a BABIP of .330 or greater in five different seasons. With that in mind, it’s all the more clear that his in-season revival hasn’t simply been a product of luck.
Looking past this season – which will go down as yet another lost campaign for the woebegone Marlins – Castro still has another year of team control remaining. However, even though Castro has gone back to being a useful contributor as the season has gone on, the Marlins are sure to decline his $16MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Consequently, Castro will get his first taste of free agency on the heels of a quality finish to the season. That’s a major relief for a player whose contract year looked like a disaster not long ago.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Luke Voit Trade Doesn’t Look So Lopsided Anymore
The Luke Voit trade (as it’s now known) barely drew any headlines when it was struck last July between the Cardinals and Yankees. Chasen Shreve was the best-known player in a deal that was viewed largely as two clubs dealing from positions of organizational depth.
Voit got a quick look with the Yankees before being optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, then returned in late August when the Yankees needed an extra bat after Didi Gregorius landed on the shelf due to a heel injury. His first two appearances in his second Yankees stint were of the pinch-hit variety, but he drew a start at first base on Aug. 24 and, in belting a pair of home runs that day, began a rapid ascension. Those two long ball were the first of seven in a 12-game span. By the end of the year, Voit had exploded with a .333/.405/.689 batting line and 14 home runs in just 148 plate appearances as a Yankee.
A huge showing in Spring Training and yet another Greg Bird injury locked Voit into a spot on the Yankees’ Opening Day roster. Meanwhile, Shreve was designated for assignment by the Cardinals late in camp and went unclaimed on waivers. The trade looked like an all-out heist for the Yankees.
Enter Giovanny Gallegos.
The least-known player involved in that July 28 swap, Gallegos didn’t distinguish himself much early in his Cardinals tenure. It’s true that he dominated in 16 2/3 innings with the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate following the trade in 2018, but he made just two big league appearances in St. Louis (1 1/3 innings pitched) last season and didn’t even break camp with the Cards in 2019. When he did arrive in the Majors on April 11, Gallegos limped out to a slow start. He allowed three home runs and pitched to a 4.80 ERA through his first 15 innings this season. While the 25-to-5 K/BB ratio he posted in that time looked encouraging, Voit was at that point sitting on a .282/.382/.575 batting line and 24 home runs in 319 total plate appearances as a Yankee. The Cardinals drew plenty of criticism for the trade (including from myself).
That May 12 cutoff, admittedly, is rather arbitrary. But since that point, Gallegos has been one of the most effective relief pitchers on the planet. Over his past 46 2/3 innings of work, the right-hander has pitched to a pristine 1.35 ERA with a 56-to-7 K/BB ratio. He’s allowed only three home runs in that span — the same number he yielded in his first 15 innings — and held opponents to a .150/.194/.250 batting line (.193 wOBA) through 170 plate appearances.
Since that time, there’s not a single pitcher in baseball (min. 40 IP) who has been tougher to hit than Gallegos. That .190 wOBA is more than 30 points lower than the second-best pitcher in that same span (Boston’s Brandon Workman). He’s surely benefited from some good fortune (.206 BABIP, 90 percent strand rate), but Gallegos is also 11th in the big leagues with a 28.8 K-BB% in that time. He’s whiffed 32.9 percent of the batters he’s faced since that point and walked just 4.1 percent of them.
On the season as a whole, Gallegos is now boasting a 2.19 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 0.88 HR/9. A 2.58 FIP and 2.70 SIERA support his emergence as a top-tier reliever. His 16.7 percent swinging-strike rate puts him on par with Max Scherzer and places him 11th among MLB pitchers with at least 50 innings thrown in 2019. Statcast indicates that Gallegos is in the 87th percentile of MLB hurlers in terms of fastball spin rate. He’s also in the 87th percentile in expected slugging percentage and the 97th percentile in both expected batting average-against and expected wOBA-against. While some higher-profile relievers have posted similar ERAs with the benefit of some smoke and mirrors, Gallegos’ success doesn’t look to be a fluke.
All of that is particularly good news for the Cardinals, because they can control the late-blooming 28-year-old all the way through the 2024 season. Gallegos won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2021 campaign; he’ll earn scarcely more than the league minimum in both the 2020 and 2021 campaigns. There’s no more volatile asset in Major League Baseball than relief pitchers, but for the time being, Gallegos has dominated enough to flip the narrative on last year’s trade. One can certainly still argue that the Cards would’ve been better off keeping Voit, but St. Louis was by no means left empty-handed and may even have come away from the exchange with a dominant bullpen anchor for years to come.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: NL Central
It has only been four weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already half of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.
So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central; now we’ll go over to the National League’s middle division.
Cardinals
When the Cards dropped five of six games after the trade deadline, it looked as if they may be on the brink of a collapse. But the club recovered with a stirring, 19-5 run. So … what caused it? A big deadline blockbuster? Multiple, well-conceived additions? Not so much.
The only move the Cards made this summer was a roster-management swap in which they sent veteran infielder Jedd Gyorko to the Dodgers. He’s playing a limited role in L.A. and hasn’t yet done anything of note. Back in St. Louis, the Cards remain laden with position-player options. A deep September roster will help the club mix and match down the stretch, though cramming talent onto a postseason roster will be more difficult.
When the Cards held pat at the deadline, it was fair to wonder whether the team’s uncertain place in the standings was a significant factor. Now, there’s little question that the club has the inside track to a divisional appearance, if not more. It was arguable at the time that the club ought to cash in some of its many solid young assets in pursuit of a higher-end starter or center fielder. So far, the decision not to do so hasn’t hurt (far from it). We’ll see how it plays out over the final month and beyond.
Cubs
The Cubbies’ biggest mid-season acquisition came not via trade, but by way of signing. But closer Craig Kimbrel hasn’t had the biggest impact. That honor would go to outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, who burst to life after being sent to Chicago. He carries a 1.060 OPS through thirty games. The move did cost two pitchers (Paul Richan and Alex Lange) that now feature among the top thirty or so Tigers farmhands. The former has shown well since the deal, carrying a 29:2 K/BB ratio over five High-A starts.
Also more helpful to this point than Kimbrel is veteran reliever David Phelps, who has been excellent since coming over. He has allowed just two earned runs in 13 appearances. That deal could still cost in the long run. It cost the Cubbies Tom Hatch, a Double-A starter who has compiled 35 1/3 innings of 2.80 ERA pitching with an intriguing 34:2 K/BB ratio since the swap.
A low-risk shot on Derek Holland hasn’t really paid dividends, as he wasn’t terribly effective before hitting the injured list. But he could still return and provide an important pen presence late in the season. Brad Wieck, acquired when the club gave up on Carl Edwards Jr., has added a bit of lefty relief depth. Edwards was knocked around before hitting the IL, so there aren’t any regrets there.
There was also a sort of hot-stove miniseries regarding the Cubs catching situation. The team added Martin Maldonado but then sent him on to the Astros for Tony Kemp. When starter Willson Contreras went down with a significant injury, the club picked up Jonathan Lucroy. The club was simply acting on the needs it had before it, but this series of moves hasn’t really worked out. Maldonado would be preferable to Lucroy at this stage of their respective careers; Kemp has struggled badly at the plate and doesn’t seem all that necessary to a roster with a wide variety of infield/outfield-capable players.
While the Cubs are now staring at a three-game deficit in the NL Central, they’ve moved into strong Wild Card position. It’s hard to say they realistically could or should have done much more at the deadline.
Brewers
The Milwaukee org has fallen off the pace since the deadline, playing sub-.500 ball over the month of August. That drop coincided with the rise of the Redbirds … in spite of the fact that the Brew Crew front office was far more active on the trade market — and generally successful in unearthing value.
Adding Jordan Lyles, at the cost of pitching prospect Cody Ponce, has been a clear win to this point. The 28-year-old Lyles has a 2.51 ERA through six starts in Milwaukee. Ponce, a former second-round pick, could yet emerge but hasn’t done anything since the deal to suggest the Brewers made a big mistake by parting with him.
Improving the bullpen was also a key need and the Brewers accomplished that in their swap with the Giants. Lefty Drew Pomeranz has turned on the afterburners of late. Overall, he has allowed just four earned runs with a 22:7 K/BB ratio over 13 2/3 innings. Righty Ray Black has just two strikeouts in his 6 2/3 innings but has managed to keep opponents to just a pair of earned runs. It’ll be interesting to see whether former top prospect Mauricio Dubon makes the Milwaukee org pay for parting with him. He’d likely be playing a significant role there with Keston Hiura injured; instead, he’s getting a full MLB showcase with the Giants.
The Brewers’ other trade hasn’t yet added value but also hasn’t hurt much. Though Jesus Aguilar started out hot after the Brewers sent him to the Rays, he has fallen back to an unremarkable .279/.351/.412 overall slash with his new club. The hurler acquired in return, Jake Faria, has been knocked around a bit in three MLB appearances.
Reds
The Cincinnati front office turned in what was arguably the most interesting overall package of deadline moves. With only an outside chance at a postseason run this season, but a keen desire to contend as soon as possible, the focus was on the near-future.
First and foremost was the surprising move to bring in veteran righty Trevor Bauer. After picking up multiple short-term starters in the prior offseason, the Reds were in need of another reload entering 2020. In that respect, going for Bauer made for an early shopping trip. He has struggled quite a bit working to an 8.40 ERA in thirty innings, though he’s still sporting a 37:13 K/BB ratio. It just hasn’t been a great follow-up season for a pitcher who landed sixth in the Cy Young voting last year. The Reds are betting he’ll figure out how to return to dominance over the offseason.
The cost for Bauer was fairly steep. Outfielder Yasiel Puig is a pending free agent, but he could’ve been cashed in otherwise. Top prospect Taylor Trammell isn’t tearing up Double-A with the Padres organization, but remains a highly regarded player. And then there’s the other, least-known aspect of the swap. Lefty Scott Moss was pitching well before the swap but has impressed all the more since. He even overcame the treacherous International League in a late stint, allowing just four earned runs on a dozen hits with 23 strikeouts and eight walks in 18 2/3 innings.
Having picked up Bauer, the Reds proceeded to ship out pending free agent starter Tanner Roark. That helped cover the late-2019 salary of the new rotation piece and also landed the team a new prospect in recent second-round pick Jameson Hannah. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been a shining season thus far for Hannah, who struggled to a .224/.325/.299 slash in 78 plate appearances after the deal.
Otherwise, the Reds don’t regret dumping Scooter Gennett, whose feel-good tenure in Cincinnati ended in bitterness. He didn’t last long in San Francisco. The club added righty Justin Grimm for depth, but he hasn’t been called upon.
Pirates
The Pirates were within 2.5 games of the division lead as late as July 7th, but it has been an unmitigated disaster ever since. It was already clear that this wasn’t going to be the team’s year by the time the deadline hit, but that didn’t set the stage for a sell-off.
The deadline period ended up being rather quiet. After the aforementioned Lyles deal, the Pirates swapped Corey Dickerson to the Phillies for some international bonus capacity and a PTBNL. Something may ultimately come of the acquired assets — Ponce seems like a good bet to appear in the majors at some point — but it was hardly a moment of note.
It could’ve been different. The Pirates discussed Felipe Vazquez with the Dodgers and could’ve come away with some serious talent for the high-end reliever. The club also could’ve held trade talks on Starling Marte, Josh Bell, or others. But it’s also plenty understandable that the organization decided against rushing into a decision on such significant assets. The pressure of the deadline might’ve spiked Vazquez’s value, but it could also be that the Bucs can get as much or more by shopping him over the winter (if they decide to do so at all). There’s always injury risk, but he has only continued to excel. While there is an argument to be made that the organization ought to pursue a different direction after another disappointing season, the club still has every opportunity to do so after holding tight this summer.
Free Agent Stock Watch: First Basemen
MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently previewed the upcoming offseason market for catchers, highlighting that there’s effectively one star option, a series of potential regulars and several backups/role players who could still help in the latter stages of their respective careers. The market for first basemen is even thinner, though there are still some intriguing names for clubs seeking a veteran to fill that role.
A Free-Agent in Name Only?
- Jose Abreu: The 32-year-old Abreu would be the top first base option on the open market — if anyone believes he’s actually going to explore offers from all 30 teams. The mutual admiration between Abreu and the organization has been covered ad nauseum throughout years of him being listed as a potential trade candidate. Both White Sox GM Rick Hahn and Abreu himself have spoken frequently about the desire to work out an extension, with Abreu making his most emphatic statement to date just last week. “Like I said before, if the team doesn’t sign me, I’m going to sign myself here,” Abreu told Daryl Van-Schouwen of the Sun-Times. Abreu later added that owner Jerry Reinsdorf has strongly suggested to him that he’ll be with the Sox beyond 2019. The big man is hitting .284/.323/.503 with 28 homers, but the smart money is on him staying with the South Siders.
The Top Option
- Justin Smoak: With Abreu not likely to change uniforms, the switch-hitting Smoak becomes the best bet on the open market. Traditionalists will bristle at Smoak’s paltry .216 batting average, but he’s in the midst of a third straight season with a .350 OBP or better. He’s homered 20-plus times in each of those seasons and posted an ISO (slugging minus batting average) above .200 four times in the past five years (including this year’s even .200 mark). Smoak is sitting on a career-high 16.6 percent walk rate and has cut his strikeout rate to 20.4 percent. Smoak may never match 2017’s total of 38 big flies, but he’s a switch-hitting on-base threat with above-average pop who can play a respectable first base.
Platoon/Bench Bats
- David Freese: Turning to the short side of the platoon, the 36-year-old Freese (37 next April) has never had a below-average offensive season by measure of wRC+. He’s long tormented left-handed pitching (.301/.380/.468 in 1180 PAs) and has more than held his own against same-handed opponents over the past couple seasons. Freese’s role with the Dodgers has been extremely limited in 2019 (163 PAs), but there’s little indication that his offensive capabilities are eroding. His age and part-time role in recent seasons will probably prevent him from getting a full-time gig in the offseason, but Freese would be a terrific veteran addition to the bench of many contenders.
- Mitch Moreland: Soon to turn 34, Moreland has drawn consistently positive reviews for his defense at first base. It’s a big reason that Boston has deployed him at the position over the past three seasons, most recently inking him to a two-year deal prior to the 2018 season. Moreland has all of 36 plate appearances against left-handed pitching in 2019 — spoiler alert: they haven’t gone well — but he’s clobbered righties at a .265/.341/.556 line through 189 plate appearances. He’s missed time due to back and quad injuries this season, and it’s possible that those maladies have contributed to his uncharacteristically below-average defensive ratings. Moreland’s history of plus glovework and still-potent bat against righties should land him a big league pact.
- Steve Pearce: A postseason hero in 2018, Pearce has had an utterly miserable season. A back injury has limited him to 99 plate appearances, during which time he’s posted a putrid .180/.245/.258 output. Pearce doesn’t look healthy and, heading into his age-37 season, will almost certainly need to settle for a minor league deal. His outstanding 2018 showing and lifetime .264/.347/.491 line against right-handed pitching are points in his favor.
- Neil Walker: As of this writing, Walker’s batting line is effectively league average (100 wRC+, 96 OPS+), making last year’s season with the Yankees the lone aberration on an otherwise strong track record. He’s no longer an everyday option at second base, but Walker can handle first, second, third and some corner outfield work while giving professional at-bats from both sides of the dish. He had to settle for a $2MM guarantee on a non-contender this season, but a better showing at the plate in 2019 (.267/.344/.394 with a pitcher-friendly home park in Miami) should convince clubs he has some mileage left.
- Martin Prado: Walker’s teammate, Prado will soon turn 36 and is coming off several seasons ruined by hamstring and quadriceps injuries. Those issues have relegated him primarily to first base duties. The fact that each of his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all check in south of .300 doesn’t bode well for Prado. But, in 81 trips to the plate against lefties, he’s hit .311/.346/.378 with an eight percent strikeout rate. Prado is, by all accounts, a boon to any clubhouse into which he steps foot, but interest is going to be limited.
Veterans with Club Options
- Anthony Rizzo: Dream on. Rizzo’s $14.5MM club option is among the easiest calls in the game. He won’t sniff the open market.
- Eric Thames: The $7.5MM option on Thames’ contract comes with a $1MM buyout — making him a $6.5MM decision for the Brewers. The former KBO superstar’s bat looked to be on the downswing in 2018, but he’s bounced back in 2019 and is currently sporting a haughty .256/.355/.508 slash with 19 dingers and doubles apiece in 379 plate appearances (plus a couple of triples). Thames is best paired with a right-handed-hitting platoon partner, but his production against righties looks to be worth this modest price.
- Ryan Zimmerman: Nationals icon or not, Zimmerman won’t have his $18MM club option exercised on the heels of an injury-shortened year that has currently consisted of a .246/.311/.390 output through 132 plate appearances. It’s possible that the Nats will bring him back at a (much) lower rate, but Zimmerman will turn 35 years old next month. He’ll have to earn his way back into a full-time role regardless of where he’s playing.
- Matt Adams: Another Washington first baseman, Adams has a $4MM mutual option (or a $1MM buyout) for next season. It’s safe to assume at this point that Adams is never going to be much of a threat against opposing lefties, but he’s hit righties at a .243/.300/.514 clip this year. This is his third straight 20-homer season, although that mark is accompanied by heretofore unseen contact issues (33.1 percent strikeout rate). Adams will turn 31 on Saturday, which, paired with his platoon issues, could well keep him from signing a multi-year deal if he returns to free agency. But he’s an established bat against righties who can probably be had on an affordable one-year offer this winter.
Depth Options
Yonder Alonso, Mark Reynolds, Lucas Duda and Hanley Ramirez were all released this season. Alonso is hitting well as a Rockie. Ramirez underwent shoulder surgery. Reynolds has yet to latch on elsewhere. Duda was cut loose for a second time earlier this week.
The Phillies have a trio of options who can handle first base in Brad Miller, Sean Rodriguez and Logan Morrison. Of the bunch, Morrison is the wild card who could be of the greatest intrigue. A torn labrum in his hip ruined LoMo’s 2018 season, but he decimated Triple-A pitching this season to earn another look in the big leagues and has hit well through a tiny sample of 15 PAs in Philly. Morrison belted 38 home runs as recently as 2017 with Tampa Bay.
Logan Forsythe had a hot start with the Rangers but has seen his bat tail off in recent months. He’s not a prototypical first baseman but can play all over the infield and has generally handled lefties well. Gerardo Parra isn’t a first baseman by nature, either, but he’s seen some time there with the Nats this season and been reasonably productive in a limited role.
Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: AL Central
It has only been four weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already half of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.
So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We’ll take things one division at a time, starting with the AL Central.
Twins
Many wanted to see the Minnesota organization make a splash, and that didn’t really occur. But it wasn’t a quiet deadline, either. The bullpen was the focus, with Sam Dyson (link) and Sergio Romo (link) added to upgrade the late-inning mix. While the former was clearly the bigger add, the latter has been the more impactful so far. Dyson has struggled with biceps tendinitis and has not impressed in nine appearances (seven earned runs, 7:4 K/BB ratio). Romo, on the other hand, has turned in solid results (five earned in 11 2/3 innings) with an impressive combination of 10.8 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. He has even picked up three saves.
On the prospect side, parting with Jaylin Davis could hurt, though he’s still awaiting an MLB opportunity while continuing to obliterate Triple-A pitching at Triple-A. Kai-Wei Teng and Prelander Berroa, the other two youngsters sent to San Francisco for Dyson, are far-off pitching prospects, so it’s tough to gauge much from their recent showings. First baseman Lewin Diaz, who went to Miami in the Romo swap, has tailed off a bit in the on-base department since changing hands, though he’s still producing lots of power and may just be experiencing a sample blip.
Notably, the Twins also acquired a youngster in the Romo deal: 22-year-old Chris Vallimont, who was promoted to High-A and has responded with a 28:4 K/BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings. He’ll be an interesting player to track. The Minnesota front office also made a few low-cost depth/future-oriented moves, acquiring Jeremy Bleich (link) and Marcos Diplan (link). Neither has appeared at the MLB level to this point, though it’s possible one or both could be called upon once rosters expand.
It remains to be seen whether the Twins will regret their modest approach to the summer trade period. A big-game starter or high-powered reliever might’ve made sense. The club has slightly extended its division lead (from 3.0 to 3.5 games) since the deadline, though the Indians twice pulled into a tie. There’s still a lot of work to be done over the final month of the season to hold off the Cleveland organization. Even if they take the division, the Twins will need every bit of talent they can muster in an ALDS match-up with the Astros or Yankees (whichever finishes with the lesser record). Of course, the presence of those powerhouses also speaks in favor of something less than all-in deadline. The Twins entered the season saying they’d rise or fall with their internal talent, and that largely remains the case.
Indians
The Cleveland organization entered the deadline in hot pursuit of the Twins and eventually caught up. It seemed then that they might zip right past, but that didn’t come to pass. Indeed, the Indians have since lost one of their best players (Jose Ramirez) and are again looking up at a significant (but hardly insurmountable) gap.
So … what to make of their deadline efforts? They added a trio of players from the Rays in a pair of deals. Reliever Hunter Wood has been solid, with three earned runs and nine strikeouts against a single walk over 8 1/3 innings. Infielders Andrew Velazquez and Christian Arroyo haven’t appeared in the majors. Another relief arm, Phil Maton, has just filled in briefly since his arrival (link).
Hang on, we’re forgetting something here. Oh, right, that mind-bending deal in which the win-now Indians sent an excellent veteran starter to the win-soon Reds for a portfolio of player assets with varying present and future value. It’s working out so far. Trevor Bauer has not impressed in Cincinnati. The Indians have kept receiving great pitching even without three members of the vaunted rotation heading into the season. Yasiel Puig has hit well. Franmil Reyes hasn’t, though there’s still reason to hope for a bounce back and he’s a long-term piece as well. Lefty Logan Allen has made just one MLB relief appearance and has been drubbed at Triple-A; he’ll need to improve, but he was acquired with the future in mind. Allen has been outperformed handily by the lesser-known Scott Moss, who is throwing well with his new organization. The final piece of the deal, Victor Nova, is too far off to warrant close attention at this stage.
It’s going to take a long time to fully unpack that deal. There’s still a chance the Indians will end up missing Bauer rather badly, whether late in 2019 or in the 2020 campaign. But the club is probably feeling rather pleased with the early returns.
White Sox
The signature South Side deadline move was … to shed the contract of injured reliever Nate Jones for some international spending capacity and obscure righties Joseph Jarneski and Ray Castro. The former has struggled badly since the swap. The latter has reached new strikeout levels, but it’s a short-sample at rookie ball.
That seemed like a worthwhile deal for the organization, but it’s utterly unremarkable as a headliner for the summer trade period. It’s not as if the rebuilding Chicago organization lacked trade candidates. Closer Alex Colome was chief among them. We’ll see how things turn out, but that seems to be a missed opportunity. Colome is still securing saves, but he carries marginal peripherals and has allowed nearly as many walks as runs this month (seven of the former and eight of the latter).
Most of the club’s other potential trade pieces weren’t obvious trade candidates by the time the deadline came around. Jose Abreu is on track to return on some kind of new arrangement. Kelvin Herrera, Yolmer Sanchez, Jon Jay, and Welington Castillo had all struggled. So had Ivan Nova, apart from two strong starts before the deadline. (That ultimately kicked off an excellent — and still-ongoing — run of success for the veteran, though it wasn’t really apparent at the time and it’s still now clear how sustainable it is.) It’s understandable that the White Sox didn’t make further deals, then, though that is also a bit of a disappointment in its own right.
Royals
Adding Mike Montgomery for Martin Maldonado was a sensible move to get some innings and perhaps add a piece that can help in the future. Montgomery has been steady since returning to his first professional organization, though his addition doesn’t seem to be laden with upside. Auctioning off Jake Diekman was an obvious move. That netted young righty Ismael Aquino and outfield prospect Dairon Blanco. The former is a rookie ball reliever, so his recent results are all but irrelevant. The latter is scuffling a bit at Double-A, with a .250/.302/.333 slash in 116 plate appearances since the swap. Fortunately, the Royals won’t be pressed to put him on the 40-man. Blanco is already 26 but is only in his second professional season, having come over from Cuba. And the Royals spun off Homer Bailey for infielder Kevin Merrell, who hasn’t hit well on either side of the swap.
That was all the action, until the Royals lucked out a bit when the Braves claimed Billy Hamilton off waivers. Those moves were just fine in isolation. But should the K.C. org have done more?
Alex Gordon has special status with the club. While he has had a nice season, he was never going to be in great demand anyway. Moving Danny Duffy might have made sense, but he probably hasn’t thrown well enough to press a deal at this stage.
In two other cases, though, the arguments were stronger in favor of a move. Ian Kennedy seems to have found new life as a late-inning reliever. He’s not showing dominant form, but probably was pitching well enough for the Royals to have saved a pretty big chunk of the remaining money owed. (The Braves took on all the remaining salary owed to Mark Melancon, for one point of reference.) Kennedy has been getting the job done since the deadline, except for one rough outing, but has been knocked around a bit in August (.303/.378/.576). Perhaps the Royals really are content just to hang on to him, but it seemed the deadline offered a good opportunity to move on.
That brings us to Whit Merrifield, who was the most interesting trade piece the Royals held this summer. There’s evidently a sense that the 30-year-old will still be an important piece when this team is ready again to contend. It’s certainly possible he’ll still be a good player by that time, but the most valuable portion of his contractual control is the near future. While it is plenty understandable that the K.C. club wanted to keep Merrifield in the fold, it wouldn’t be altogether surprising if we end up looking back and wondering if there was a missed opportunity. It’s worth noting that Merrifield ought to be quite marketable in the offseason, though teams presumably would’ve given up more to have him down the stretch in 2019.
Tigers
The cellar-dwelling Tigers did what they needed to do by moving veterans Shane Greene (link) and Nicholas Castellanos (link). As for the returns … let’s just say that initial reports they were chasing top prospects didn’t come to fruition. From the Greene swap, Joey Wentz has turned in four dominant starts at Triple-A, which is nice to see. Travis Demeritte was popped right onto the MLB roster. He’s striking out a lot but generally holding his own (.250/.320/.391) and has probably shown enough to warrant a longer look next year.
The two pitchers acquired for Castellanos — Paul Richan and Alex Lange — have mostly continued doing what they had been before the swap. Neither is considered a top prospect, but both certainly buttress the already impressive group of upper-minors arms in the Detroit system. You might wish you could rewind and tell everybody what kind of production Castellanos was destined to provide — he has already matched the tally of home runs (11) he produced in 100 games with the Tigers over 27 with the Cubs — but that’s just not how the world works.
While some might say the Tigers should have done better in those deals, we really can’t say without knowing what the alternatives were. It’s hard to question the decision to pull the trigger on the best-available deal for those particular players. And we can’t reasonably argue that the front office should have pushed harder to deal other players on the roster … with one possible exception, at least.
Breakout lefty Matthew Boyd is a bit of a polarizing figure among hot-stove fans. The 28-year-old reached the trade deadline with a sub-4.00 ERA and an extremely impressive combination of 178 strikeouts and 29 walks. There were surely quite a few contenders with keen interest, particularly since Boyd was not just a potential difference-maker now but also comes with three seasons of team control.
The Tigers evidently did not feel rushed to make a deal, as word emerged just before the deadline that the team was not intrigued by any of the chatter to that point. Things can always change at the last minute, but when the dust settled he had not changed hands.
Will they come to regret it? Only time will tell. Boyd has had some struggles in August, surrendering a whopping ten long balls in his past 26 2/3 innings. That doesn’t necessarily indicate he’s about to turn into a pumpkin, but it does dent his trade value heading into the offseason.
Poll: NL Cy Young Favorite
Dodgers left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu was arguably the favorite for the National League Cy Young Award just a couple weeks ago, though he’s now in the throes of a rough stretch that could damage his chances. After shutting out the Diamondbacks over seven innings on Aug. 11, Ryu was the proud owner of an incredible 1.45 ERA for the season. But since then, Ryu has trudged through three subpar starts, in which he allowed 18 earned runs on 25 hits over 13 2/3 innings. For reference, Ryu yielded a combined 18 earned runs across his previous 19 starts prior to his adverse run this mnth.
Despite his recent struggles, there is no question Ryu has been among the most effective hurlers in the NL this year. The pending free agent’s 2.35 ERA through 157 1/3 innings paces all qualified NL starters, while his K/BB ratio of 6.85 comes in second.Ryu’s advanced numbers – a 3.17 ERA, 3.42 xFIP and a 3.84 FIP with 4.2 bWAR/4.0 fWAR – aren’t quite as marvelous, but they still help place him smack dab in the Cy Young conversation with a month remaining in the regular season.
If Ryu’s going to take home the NL’s best pitcher honors on the cusp of a trip to free agency, there are a few starters he’ll have to fend off, including reigning winner Jacob deGrom. While the 31-year-old deGrom hasn’t been as unhittable as he was a year ago, when he posted a 217-inning season with 9.6 bWAR/9.0 fWAR, he he has been tremendous nonetheless. DeGrom has logged a 2.66 ERA/2.77 FIP with 11.4 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 and 5.6 fWAR/5.4 bWAR through 169 frames. As of now, he looks to have a real chance of repeating in the Cy Young race.
Back-to-back Cy Youngs aren’t foreign to Nationals right-hander Max Scherzer, a three-time winner who nabbed the award in consecutive seasons from 2016-17. Scherzer is currently leading NL pitchers in WAR, having notched a 2.46 ERA/2.22 FIP with 12.62 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9, though a relative lack of innings could be his undoing in the race. The 35-year-old has only thrown 142 2/3 after missing large portions of July and August with injuries. If you’re a voter who values dominance over innings, Scherzer should have a legitimate shot. Otherwise, considering health issues have prevented him from turning in a quality start since July 6, collecting a fourth Cy Young this year could be a tough task.
We’d be remiss to ignore that there are a few other potential winners in the NL, including two of Ryu’s teammates (Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw), a couple more Nationals (Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg), a pair of Reds (Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray), and the Braves’ Mike Soroka. Although the rookie Soroka is a ROY long shot because of the prodigious power Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has demonstrated, Cy Young voters may not be able to ignore his excellence. Even lights-out Padres closer Kirby Yates and Pirates game-ending lefty Felipe Vazquez could garner consideration if voters are willing to entertain a reliever winning, though the fact that they’re neither starters nor on contenders should help take them out of the running.
There’s clearly no shortage of candidates, evidenced in part by this top five leaderboard of notable stats among starters:
- ERA – Ryu: 2.35; Soroka: 2.44; Scherzer: 2.46; deGrom: 2.66; Kershaw: 2.76
- Innings – German Marquez: 174; Strasburg: 171; Madison Bumgarner: 169 2/3; deGrom: 169
- Strikeouts per nine – Scherzer: 12.62; Robbie Ray: 11.82; deGrom: 11.4; Yu Darvish: 10.81; Buehler: 10.79
- K/BB ratio – Scherzer: 7.41; Ryu: 6.85; Buehler: 6.61; deGrom: 5.49; Kershaw: 5.13
- Wins (if those still matter to you) – Strasburg: 15; Castillo/Kershaw/Dakota Hudson: 13; Ryu: 12
- bWAR – Scherzer: 5.5; deGrom: 5.4; Soroka: 5.3; Corbin: 5.1; S. Gray: 4.6
- fWAR – Scherzer: 5.8; deGrom: 5.6; Buehler: 4.6; Strasburg: 4.5; Corbin: 4.3
It’s not easy to find a clear-cut favorite for NL Cy Young honors yet, which should make the last month of the campaign all the more intriguing if you’re interested in who collects season-ending hardware. With only a few weeks to go in 2019, which pitcher do you see as the favorite?
(Poll link for app users)
Who's the NL Cy Young front-runner?
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DeGrom 33% (1,448)
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Ryu 28% (1,237)
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Scherzer 25% (1,123)
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Other (specify in comments) 14% (608)
Total votes: 4,416
Kyle Seager’s Rebound Season
Not much has gone right for the Mariners at the Major League level this season, as GM Jerry Dipoto’s ongoing plan to “re-imagine” the roster has cut a lot of payroll and brought a lot of young talent into the organization at the expense of big league wins. Only five teams have fewer victories than the 56-78 Mariners, and every single team in the four major North American professional sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL) has reached the postseason more recently than the M’s, who last tasted the playoffs in 2001.
With so much focus on the Mariners’ newer faces, one of the more positive development of the team’s season has been the re-emergence of a cornerstone. Thanks to hand surgery during Spring Training, Kyle Seager didn’t make his season debut until May 25, and thus the durable third baseman will appear in fewer than 154 games for the first time since his 2011 rookie season. Even in abbreviated fashion over 324 plate appearances, however, Seager looks to have reversed a very worrisome decline at the plate.
Seager hit .268/.340/.457 with 103 homers for the M’s between 2013-16, culminating in an outstanding 2016 campaign that saw him finish 12th in AL MVP voting on the basis of a .278/.359/.499 slash line and 30 home runs (all career bests) over 676 plate appearances. That great year was followed up, however, by a less-impressive 2017 and then a disastrous 2018.
After breaking his left big toe in June, Seager made an ill-fated attempt to try and play through the injury, leading to the worst full-season numbers of his career. Seager’s production went from okay in 2017 to well below-average (107 wRC+ to 84, 109 OPS + to 86) , as he managed only a .221/.273/.400 slash through 630 PA, while still swatting 22 home runs.
It would’ve been easy to just write off 2018 as a result of the toe injury, though between the earlier dropoff in 2017 and then his late start to 2019, the Mariners didn’t really know what to expect from Seager this year. While still not at his 2016 peak, Seager has nonetheless rebounded to once again become a force at the plate. He has 18 homers and a .250/.327/.503 slash line over 324 PA, fueled mostly by a recent surge (1.183 OPS over his last 132 PA) that has made Seager one of baseball’s top hitters over the last five weeks of action.
While he may not remain quite this red-hot, Seager’s production looks mostly sustainable. His .354 xwOBA actually outpaces his .350 wOBA (which has been a consistent trend for him since Statcast began measuring wOBA/xwOBA back in 2015). His exit velocity and hard-hit ball percentage are both well above league averages, and Seager’s 38.9% showing in the latter category represents a new career high. Always something of a fly-ball hitter, Seager’s improved contact has made him the latest batter to benefit from MLB’s homer-happy reality, as his 18% homer rate is by far the highest of his career. He has also shown more patience, with a 9.9% walk rate this season after a career-worst 6.0% in 2018.
Beyond just a healed toe, Seager also took steps to improve his diet and offseason training last winter, and the early results bode well for him to remain a valuable player heading into 2020, his age-32 season. His bounce-back performance in 2019 could also revive some trade value, though the terms of Seager’s contract will be a notable obstacle.
Signed to a seven-year, $100MM contract extension by former M’s general manager Jack Zduriencik prior to the 2015 season, Seager is still owed $19MM in 2020 and $18MM in 2021, with a $15MM club option for 2022. That club option becomes guaranteed, however, in the event of a trade, effectively making it a poison pill rival teams are unlikely to swallow for a player who will be 34 on Opening Day 2022. The Mariners have been willing to cover money in other trades of veterans over the past year, though between the contracts already dealt and Felix Hernandez‘s big salary coming off the books after the season, the M’s have already significantly reduced their future financial commitments. The team has just under $87MM committed to payroll in 2020.
Even the fact that Seager can again be considered something of a trade chip, however, represents a big step forward for the third baseman given his issues over the previous two seasons. Since Hernandez is expected to depart, Seager will become the longest-tenured Mariner, and perhaps a veteran bridge to the team’s next window of competitive baseball. Dipoto has insisted that his rebuilding efforts won’t be long-lasting, so there’s still a chance that Seager’s career revival could take him into a long-awaited postseason appearance while still wearing a Mariners uniform.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
MLBTR Poll: Superstars For Sale?
ESPN scribe Jeff Passan floated a very interesting tidbit in his latest column Wednesday: There’s a belief among rival executives that the Red Sox, Indians and Cubs will at least be willing to listen to trade offers for their franchise players during the upcoming winter. That means any of Boston’s Mookie Betts, Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor or Chicago’s Kris Bryant could change hands once the offseason rolls around. It’s far from a guarantee anyone from the group will wind up on the move, but the idea that they might should make hot stove season all the more interesting.
The only member of the trio with fewer than two years of team control remaining is Betts, who will enter his final season of arbitration eligibility over the winter. The 26-year-old right fielder is just a season removed from earning AL MVP honors, which helped him land a historic $20MM payday to avoid arbitration last winter. The 2019 version of Betts hasn’t been as stellar as the MVP-winning player, but that’s not a knock on his performance this season so much as a compliment to what he did a year ago, when he amassed an eyebrow-raising 10.4 fWAR. Betts is up to 4.8 in that category this year, having slashed a strong .282/.384/.494 with 21 home runs and 13 stolen bases across 622 plate appearances.
Just a year from winning their latest World Series title, why would the Red Sox possibly move Betts? They’re unlikely to make the playoffs this year, though a trip back to the postseason in 2020 hardly looks out of the question. However, Betts has indicated on multiple occasions that he’d like to test free agency after next season, when he could reel in one of the all-time richest contracts in the sport. For the Red Sox, trading Betts a year before a potential journey to the open market would help the club replenish its farm system to some degree. The Red Sox only came in 22nd place in Baseball America’s most recent talent rankings.
The Indians, on the other hand, boast the game’s 10th-best system, though they’re incapable of spending to the extent the Red Sox can. That means Lindor is quite likely to end up elsewhere in the coming years. Mr. Smile will be a free agent after 2021, but it would behoove the Indians to get something for him prior to then. In the meantime, the 25-year-old Lindor is sure to collect a notable raise over his current $10.55MM salary when he reaches arbitration for the penultimate time during the offseason. Lindor perhaps hasn’t been quite as great as he was in 2018, a career-high 7.6-fWAR campaign, but his 4.3 mark and .300/.353/.532 line with 24 homers and 19 steals through 522 PA are mighty impressive nonetheless. Needless to say, teams will line up for the elite shortstop if small-market Cleveland goes with the agonizing decision to make him available in the coming months.
And then there’s Bryant, yet another former MVP. The Boras client joins Lindor as another all-world performer who’s slated for his second-last trip through arbitration in a few months. Bryant, 27, is well on his way to another raise (he’s currently on a $12.9MM salary), having batted .282/.379/.521 and smashed 29 dingers over 552 trips to the plate. Whether the Cubs would truly consider parting with Bryant is up in the air, but they are amid their second somewhat disappointing season (albeit one that looks as if it will culminate in yet another playoff berth), and waving goodbye to the third baseman/outfielder would go a long way toward aiding them in bolstering their system. It’s definitely a below-average group, according to BA, which places it 29th in baseball.
We’re still a couple months from the offseason rearing its head, but if anyone from this trio hits the block, it should make for an incredibly interesting winter of rumors. Do you expect any of them to actually change teams after the season?
(Poll link for app users)
Will any of these three be traded in the offseason?
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Francisco Lindor 39% (3,089)
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Mookie Betts 34% (2,690)
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Kris Bryant 26% (2,080)
Total votes: 7,859
Arguably The Most Underrated Athletic
It seems as if the Athletics’ lineup is loaded with underappreciated hitters. How many really appreciate the excellence of third baseman Matt Chapman, shortstop Marcus Semien, first baseman Matt Olson or center fielder Ramon Laureano – four of the most valuable players in the game? If that group’s not truly getting its due, it’s no surprise outfielder/first baseman Mark Canha is also relatively anonymous on the national stage. After all, he’s a 30-year-old who has changed hands on multiple occasions since the Marlins chose him in the seventh round of the 2010 draft, and he’s just now amid the best season of his career. But what a season this has been for Canha, who’s quietly helping guide the Athletics toward their second consecutive playoff berth.
After joining the Miami organization, Canha found his way to Oakland back in December 2014 after the Rockies chose him in the Rule 5 Draft. The Rox immediately traded the Northern California native to his stomping grounds for right-hander Austin House and cash considerations. Now, it’s safe to say that’ll go down as yet another shrewd move in a career full of them for A’s executive vice president Billy Beane. House never pitched in the majors, while Canha emerged as a useful part-timer for the A’s even before his breakout this season.
The right-handed Canha debuted in the bigs in 2015, the season following his trade to Oakland, and immediately became a solid producer for the club. By measure of wRC+, Canha was an above-average hitter in two of four seasons from 2015-18. He totaled 2.0 fWAR in 411 plate appearances just a year ago on the strength of what was then a personal-best line of .249/.328/.449 (113 wRC+) with 17 home runs. Valuable contributions, to be sure, but Canha has taken it to another level this year and helped the A’s to yet another contending season. His output has been especially important for a team that has been forced to overcome long-term injuries to fellow outfielders Laureano and Stephen Piscotty.
As marvelous as Chapman, Semien, Olson and Laureano have been this year, no Athletic has been stronger at the plate than Canha. His whopping 149 wRC+ easily outdoes the rest of his teammates’, and ranks 11th in the league among those with 300 or more plate appearances. Some of the names in Canha’s company include Fernando Tatis Jr., Pete Alonso and Carlos Santana. Not bad for someone whom the majority of baseball fans have probably never heard of.
But what’s behind Canha’s prodigious .278/.392/.550 line and his 23 home runs in 375 trips to the plate? A massive increase in walks is the most obvious source. Canha entered the season with a lifetime walk rate of 6.6 percent in 1,127 PA. The number has skyrocketed to 13.3 this year. He’s swinging at far fewer pitches than before, especially outside the strike zone, which has led to more free passes.
Walk uptick aside, it’s not as easy to find reasons for Canha’s sudden outburst. Compared to last season, he’s hitting fewer line drives, more groundballs, more infield flies and, per FanGraphs, making less hard contact and more soft contact. All of that should lead to less power, yet Canha’s ISO (.272) is 72 points above last year’s figure and 88 points better than the mark he entered 2019 sporting. It helps, of course, that Canha has gone to left field more. He came into the year with a pull percentage of 44.3, which has leapt to 53.7 – a number that ranks sixth in the majors.
Canha’s also capable of doing damage against both right- and left-handed pitchers, but he hasn’t necessarily wowed Statcast when he has made contact this season. His average exit velocity (88.7 mph) only ranks in the league’s 42nd percentile, while his hard-hit rate sits in the 53rd range. Canha has posted a .393 weighted on-base average that’s among the best in the game and easily trumps his .356 expected wOBA. However, the latter figure still falls into the game’s 77th percentile.
While Canha’s offense has been his calling card this year, he has also helped the A’s cause on defense, having amassed double-digit appearances at all three outfield spots and at first base. The overwhelming majority of Canha’s work has come in the outfield, where he has used his above-average speed to combine for 4 Outs Above Average, a pair of Defensive Runs Saved and a 0.6 Ultimate Zone Rating. The entire package has been worth 3.7 bWAR and 3.1 fWAR, all for a salary of just over $2MM. Canha has been one of the most cost-efficient players in the game this season, then, and that’s all the more crucial for low-budget Oakland. With another two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, Canha could continue as one of the club’s premier (and perhaps most underrated) players for at least a little while longer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Better Building Block: Pete Alonso Or Yordan Alvarez?
With just over a month remaining in the regular season, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Astros designated hitter/outfielder Yordan Alvarez look like the clear-cut front-runners for Rookie of the Year honors in their respective leagues. Alonso has been brilliant all season, and his excellence this summer has helped lead the Mets out of despair and into National League wild-card contention. Alvarez, meanwhile, has given the already loaded Astros yet another tremendous hitter in a lineup chock-full of them since the club promoted him to the majors June 9. But which of the two would you rather have for the long haul?
At least in terms of home runs, the 24-year-old Alonso has enjoyed one of the greatest first seasons in recent history. The Mets have been around since 1962, but Alonso already holds the franchise’s single-season record for most homers in a year. Alonso swatted his 42nd of the year Tuesday, thus helping him to an overall line of .265/.367/.596 across 556 plate appearances. The right-handed swinger has shown no vulnerability while facing either same-sided or lefty hurlers, evidenced by a 147 wRC+ against the former and a 149 mark versus the latter. Alonso’s 148 wRC+ ranks eighth among qualified hitters, while his 4.2 fWAR ties him for 23rd with Cubs third baseman and former NL MVP Kris Bryant. Plus, Alonso’s .382 expected weighted on-base average falls in the league’s 92nd percentile, per Statcast, and doesn’t sit too far behind his real wOBA of .398.
Statcast has looked even more favorably on the 22-year-old Alvarez’s production, giving him an eyebrow-raising .421 xwOBA that ranks fifth in the majors among those with 100 or more trips to the plate. Only offensive luminaries Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Nelson Cruz and Christian Yelich have outdone Alvarez in that category. Trout and Yellich have already won MVPs, while Bellinger could join them in the next couple months. Meantime, Alvarez’s actual wOBA (.456) outdoes every other batter’s by at least 10 points. His line of .329/.420/.703 with 21 homers in just 257 PA amounts to a 190 wRC+, which ranks first out of those with 200-plus trips to the plate, while he has already racked up 2.9 fWAR.
The lefty-hitting Alvarez, like Alonso, has brutalized pitchers of either handedness (199 wRC+ against righties, 170 wRC+ versus southpaws). Although Alvarez’s .367 batting average on balls in play seems unlikely to hold as he moves forward, it’s clear the stacked Astros have yet another world-class offensive building block on their hands.
MLB.com placed Alvarez 23rd among the game’s prospects at the time of his promotion, while Alonso was 51st shortly before the Mets elected to place him on their season-opening roster. It’s evident now they deserved better than even those high rankings. Alvarez seems likely to go down as one of the top heist pickups in recent memory, as the Astros acquired him from the Dodgers for reliever Josh Fields back in August 2016, while Alonso has been a steal of a draft pick for New York – which landed him in the second round in 2016. These two can already count themselves among baseball’s fiercest sluggers just a few months into their respective careers, and they’re likely on their way to ROY honors as a result. Who’s the better building block, though?
(Poll link for app users)
Who's the better building block?
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Yordan Alvarez 59% (4,333)
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Pete Alonso 41% (3,027)
Total votes: 7,360