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The Blue Jays’ Potential Outfield Savior

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This has been anything but a productive season for the Blue Jays’ outfield, which ranks at the absolute bottom of the majors in fWAR (minus-1.0) and second last in wRC+ (75). Center fielder Randal Grichuk has fallen well short of expectations after signing a five-year, $52MM extension in early April, while neither corner outfielders Teoscar Hernandez nor Billy McKinney have come close to replicating above-average offensive showings from 2018. But Toronto’s outfield does have a saving grace in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who – two-plus years after joining the franchise – is now delivering on the considerable hype he garnered as a prospect.

Gurriel signed with the Blue Jays out of Cuba in November 2016, ending a months-long derby in free agency which saw several teams court him. He ultimately accepted a seven-year, $22MM offer from the Blue Jays, who hardly broke the bank for his services. Had Gurriel failed in Toronto, it wouldn’t have done much damage to the team’s books. Had he succeeded, on the other hand, Toronto would have had a steal on its hands. It now looks like a case of the latter.

Gurriel debuted with the Blue Jays last year and showed off legitimate offensive promise, slashing .281/.309/.446 (103 wRC+) with 11 home runs in 263 plate appearances. He did amass 59 strikeouts against just nine walks, though, while drawing atrocious defensive grades in the middle infield. Gurriel totaled minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in almost 550 innings divided between shortstop and second base.

Despite his infield woes a year ago, Gurriel opened 2019 as Toronto’s top option at second base. It didn’t last long, though. The team optioned Gurriel to Triple-A Buffalo in mid-April, in part because he wasn’t doing much at the plate, but has reaped the rewards since then.

The Blue Jays had Gurriel work in the grass during his minor league demotion and now appear to have an outfield cornerstone in their midst. When the Blue Jays sent the 25-year-old down, he owned a meager .175/.250/.275 line in 29 at-bats. Two and a half months later, he has teed off on major league pitching to the tune of a .318/.366/.642 line with 14 home runs in 191 plate appearances. Among major league hitters who have accrued at least 190 trips to the plate, Gurriel’s 163 wRC+ ranks seventh. On the other side, both DRS and UZR have graded him as a scratch defender in left field since he returned from Buffalo.

To this point, the athletic Gurriel seems cut out for his new position, but how sustainable is his offensive outburst? Well, his 25.1 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate aren’t particularly promising, and he sports a .365 batting average on balls in play that won’t hold. He’s also making far less contact and swinging and missing more than he did a year ago. That said, encouraging signs abound. Gurriel may not be making as much contact as he did in 2018, but his hard-hit rate has risen almost 14 percent since then, according to FanGraphs. A drastic increase in fly ball rate, a four-degree rise in launch angle and a noticeable drop in grounders further help explain his power uptick.

Gurriel’s current weighted on-base average, .413, ranks in the top 4 percent of the majors, per Statcast. That’s probably not sustainable, though other indicators show Toronto has a real building block on its hands. The right-handed Gurriel ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected batting average (61st percentile), average exit velocity (65th percentile), expected wOBA (75th percentile), hard-hit percentage (87th percentage) and expected slugging percentage (93rd percentile). Gurriel’s .361 xwOBA sandwiches him between the likes of Charlie Blackmon and Francisco Lindor, among a slew of other familiar names. It helps that Gurriel hasn’t been vulnerable against lefty or right pitchers, whom he has crushed to varying degrees, or particular offerings. Gurriel has posted an xwOBA ranging between .356 and .477 against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches, says Statcast.

Back when Toronto signed Gurriel, the hope for the team was that he’d evolve into an indispensable piece of its infield. It now looks as though he’s turning into an integral part of the Blue Jays’ outfield, which no doubt stands as a major victory – especially with young second baseman Cavan Biggio and shortstop prospect Bo Bichette in the mix. With Gurriel, Biggio, Bichette and budding third base star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in line to comprise almost half of Toronto’s attack for the long haul, an enviable offensive core looks to be taking shape up north.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Aaron Sanchez’s Diminishing Trade Value

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Trade rumors have swirled around both Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman for months, though teams considered the Blue Jays’ asking price for either young right-hander to be “uncomfortably high” during the offseason.  The Jays were thought to still be looking for a premium return in any deal, despite the fact that both Sanchez and Stroman were coming off inconsistent, injury-shortened seasons.  The prevailing wisdom was that the Jays would be counting on both pitchers to be healthy and effective in the first half of 2019, paving the way for the duo to become prime trade chips at the July 31st deadline.

For Stroman, it’s been all systems go in amassing a 3.04 ERA over 100 1/3 innings, including his six shutout frames against the Red Sox today.  For Sanchez, however, his first 16 starts have only led to more frustration.  Sanchez has managed only a 5.49 ERA over 78 2/3 innings this season, with ERA indicators (5.48 FIP, 5.30 xFIP, 5.43 SIERA) and hard-contact numbers (a .355 xwOBA just slightly below his .359 wOBA) providing evidence that Sanchez’s struggles are far removed from simple bad luck.

Counting his abbreviated 2017 season, Sanchez is now in his third straight year of issuing at least five walks per nine innings.  While he has a 50% grounder rate, 16.4% of the fly balls he has allowed have left the yard, leading to an unimpressive 1.4 HR/9.  Never a big strikeout pitcher even at his peak in 2016, Sanchez has a 7.44 K/9 this season.

Speaking of Sanchez’s 2016 season, that excellent year stands out as the most recent bit of evidence that the right-hander has be a front-of-the-rotation type of starter, as Sanchez has since been consistently hampered by a variety of finger problems.  Between cracked and removed fingernails, surgery to repair a right index finger injured after being caught in a suitcase, and constant blister problems, Sanchez has been fraught with the type of hard-to-diagnose yet persistent injury concerns that would give any team pause.

As Sanchez told The Athletic’s John Lott (subscription required) last winter, the finger problems led to mechanical issues, as Sanchez tried to adjust for a new grip on the baseball.  This led to a steep increase of Sanchez’s use of a changeup in 2018 that has continued into this season, and Sanchez’s curveball usage has also spiked to a career-high 22.7% this season (his previous high was 16.6% in 2017).

Though Sanchez is averaging 94mph on his fastball, he has only been throwing it 58.3% of the time in 2019 due to a lack of effectiveness.  As per Fangraphs’ fastball runs above average metric (wFB), Sanchez has gotten less than his heater (-12.1 wFB) than all but two other qualified pitchers in baseball.  Lott noted back in January that Sanchez’s sinker was a plus pitch for him in 2016, yet it has become an increasingly smaller part of the righty’s arsenal — after throwing it 54.9% of the time in 2016, that total dropped to 37.9% last season and 36.3% this year.

With all this in mind, Sanchez would need a big turn-around over the next four weeks to merit the type of return that the Blue Jays want for a young (Sanchez turns 27 on July 1) pitcher who is controlled through the 2020 season.  Controllable arms have enough value in baseball that the Jays would surely still get some type of decent offers for Sanchez, especially if there’s a team out there that believes it has a fix for Sanchez’s grip problems.

The trouble is, a “decent” offer would still be seen as a big disappointment for a rebuilding Jays team that hasn’t been able to maximize its return on several of its veterans.  Josh Donaldson would’ve been the Blue Jays’ biggest trade chip of 2018 yet shoulder and calf problems kept the third baseman off the field for much of the season, leaving the Jays forced to settle for just one prospect coming off Tommy John surgery (Julian Merryweather) in a trade with Cleveland.  J.A. Happ was dealt at last year’s trade deadline for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney, neither of whom have done much for the Jays this season.  Roberto Osuna was sent to Houston last July for a three-pitcher package that included current closer Ken Giles, though Osuna surely would’ve netted more were it not for his off-the-field legal issues.

A case can be made that Toronto could opt to just hang onto Sanchez to see if he can ever get on track either after July 31st or in the first few months of the 2020 season.  Sanchez is earning only $3.9MM this year and will only get a modest raise on that salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility, plus the Blue Jays will still need some kind of veteran rotation help next year.

There’s nothing stopping the Jays from continuing to explore trades for Sanchez over the winter, though then the team runs the risk that his rebound performance simply never comes around (or simply won’t come in a Toronto uniform if a change of scenery is required).  The Jays face an increasingly tough decision leading up to the trade deadline, as the team will have to weigh whether settling for a modest trade return for Sanchez now might be preferable than getting even less, or nothing at all, for Sanchez down the road if his underwhelming 2018-19 performance represents his new normal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Looking For A Match In A Clint Frazier Trade

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In July 2016, when the Yankees were on the periphery of the American League playoff race, they made the bold decision to trade superstar reliever Andrew Miller to the Indians for four players. Outfielder Clint Frazier and left-hander Justus Sheffield, two top 100 prospects, headlined an impressive-looking haul for the Yankees. The Yankees’ hope then was that Frazier and Sheffield would eventually turn into indispensable pieces of their 25-man roster, but three years later, we now know it may not happen. Sheffield’s already out of the organization, which flipped him to the Mariners last winter in a package for two years of control over front-line starter James Paxton. Frazier remains, though his place with the franchise could be on shaky ground.

Frazier, who Yankees general manager Brian Cashman once said possesses “legendary bat speed,” has already racked up his most significant major league playing time this season. Returning from a concussion-marred 2018, the 24-year-old has slashed a solid .283/.330/.513 (118 wRC+) with 11 home runs and a .230 ISO in 2019 plate appearances. Although that’s starting-caliber offensive production on your typical team, a healthy Yankees lineup is anything but ordinary.

The acquisition of designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners last weekend helped push Frazier out of New York, which subsequently sent him back to Triple-A Scranton. With Encarnacion and Luke Voit at DH/first and Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and Cameron Maybin in the outfield, the team had little choice but to take advantage of its ability to option Frazier. Even with Maybin now going to the injured list, the Yankees may not recall Frazier because he’d mostly ride the bench.

Frazier was understandably displeased with the Yankees when they demoted him, though it seems they still hold him in high regard. Owner Hal Steinbrenner voiced his support for Frazier this week, saying he’s going to be “a big part of this team going forward.” Nevertheless, Steinbrenner’s words won’t quell the trade rumblings hovering around Frazier as the July 31 deadline nears. The Yankees don’t have to trade Frazier, who’s not on track to reach arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2023 campaign, but they may not be able to find consistent playing time for him next year either. While Gardner and Maybin could be gone by then, most or all of Encarnacion (if his $20MM club option is exercised), Voit, Judge, Stanton and Hicks will return in prominent roles.

With little space for Frazier in the near term, the Yankees’ best bet may be to flip him for help this year in an effort to boost a World Series-contending roster. Adding up Frazier’s youth, production in the minors and majors, and controllable status, he’d be a valuable commodity on the trade market. New York’s known to be hunting for a middle- or front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher – something it may be able to acquire by dangling Frazier in talks with other clubs. The Yankees don’t boast a high-end farm system, which would make it all the more logical for them to use Frazier as trade currency this summer.

If the Yankees are going to trade Frazier in the next month-plus, it reportedly won’t be for someone who’s due to become a free agent. Should we take that at face value, it would rule out a deal involving Frazier and Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner – this year’s most hyped rental starter. Regardless, Bumgarner would have to waive his partial no-trade clause for the Yankees.

The Giants’ outfield is abysmal, which would seem to make Frazier a fit, though it’s still unclear whether they’d choose him over another team’s offer that could be fronted by a top 100 prospect(s). After all, the vast outfield at Oracle Park in San Francisco is no place for a weak defender. Frazier has been that to this point. Factoring in his nationally televised misadventures in right field against the Red Sox on June 3, Frazier has posted minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in just 319 innings as an outfielder this season. Those struggles aren’t anything new for Frazier, who’s at minus-12 DRS with minus-8.4 UZR during his 686-inning big league career as an outfielder.

Bumgarner’s the most proven starter among likely trade chips, but he’s not the most valuable. That honor belongs to Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd, who’s enjoying a breakout season, makes a paltry 2019 salary ($2.6MM) and isn’t set for free agency until after 2022. For all of those reasons, Frazier won’t be enough to headline a package for Boyd, who should be able to net the Tigers a bounty headed by premium prospects. Besides, considering the Tigers don’t want to continue their relationship with defensively limited, offensively gifted corner outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, it’s fair to wonder how much they’d value a similar player in Frazier.

Meanwhile, Detroit’s AL Central rental rival in Cleveland may have its own coveted trade chip in righty Trevor Bauer. The Indians are very much in the wild-card race, yet there has still been ample speculation about a Bauer trade. He’s on a $13MM salary right now and controllable through 2020. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote Thursday that a potential Yankees acquisition of Bauer “would probably be centered around” Frazier. There’s logic behind that – the Indians are already familiar with Frazier, who’d be able to help their woeful offense on a cheap salary right away. However, Frazier alone wouldn’t be able to pry Bauer and his year and a half of remaining control out of Cleveland.

It seems the Yankees would stand a better chance of using Frazier to net Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, who, like Bauer, is under control through 2020. Stroman doesn’t have Bauer’s upside, but he’s enjoying a fine bounce-back season at an opportune time for rebuilding Toronto. The fact that Stroman’s earning a reasonable $7.4MM will only help the Blue Jays’ cause when they inevitably move him. Stroman would bring back promising prospects in a trade, but if the Jays want a more established player, Frazier’s bat would fit in an outfield whose only productive full-timer has been Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Although New York and Toronto play in the same division, that wouldn’t serve as a deterrent to a trade. These teams are just a year removed from a deadline deal which saw the Yankees acquire starter J.A. Happ for infielder/outfielder Brandon Drury and outfielder Billy McKinney.

Because we’re discussing high-end starters who’ve come up in trade rumors, we would be remiss not to mention Nationals super-ace Max Scherzer and Diamondbacks No. 1 man Zack Greinke. John Harper of SNY.tv reported Friday the Yankees would love to acquire the still-dominant Scherzer (who wouldn’t?), though it seems like much more of a pipe dream than a realistic hope on their part. For what it’s worth, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo shot down the idea of dealing the soon-to-be 35-year-old Scherzer last weekend. Even if Rizzo were to reverse course, Frazier wouldn’t come close to leading a package for Scherzer.

Frazier would have a better chance to help the Yankees land Greinke, but there are obvious roadblocks standing in the way of that. For one, thanks in part to the 35-year-old Greinke’s terrific production, the Diamondbacks are hanging in the NL playoff race. Still, if the team attempts to trade Greinke, his contract and 15-team NTC would complicate matters. Greinke, signed through 2021, is still owed upward of $90MM (including deferrals). He’ll also count $34MM-plus per season against the luxury tax until his contract runs out. If the D-backs were to assume a large portion of Greinke’s remaining deal, maybe they and the Yankees could work something out. Greinke would still have to sign off on a trade to the Bronx after that. All things considered, a swap around Frazier and Greinke looks like a long shot, to say the least.

More starters than the above figure to be available around the deadline, but ideal matches look hard to find from the Yankees’ perspective. For instance, Texas lefty Mike Minor would give the Yankees what they want – an effective starter who’s not a rental – though he probably won’t wind up on the move with the Rangers in playoff contention. The same may apply to one of Greinke’s D-backs rotation mates, Robbie Ray.

On paper, Frazier looks like a strong candidate to join a new organization by the end of July. However, in trading Frazier, the Yankees would likely need to acquire someone who would provide a noticeable boost to their World Series chances. We’ll find out soon whether they’ll be able to pull off that difficult feat.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

14 Former Big Leaguers Hitting Well On Minor-League Deals

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This time of year, plenty of teams have a need for gap-filling players — some of whom can end up with more expansive opportunities. Sometimes clubs go with younger options, but there’s often good reason to go with a familiar player who has already spent ample time at the game’s highest level. Of course, you’ll also prefer a player who is active and performing well against the next-best thing to MLB pitching.

I thought it’d be interesting to round up some hitters who could be considered by their own teams or others over the coming weeks and months. Each of these 14 players has at least two years of MLB service but was forced to settle for a minor-league deal over the offseason. They’re also each turning in better-than-league-average production, though you’ll want to bear in mind that the outwardly gaudy numbers were logged in exceedingly hitter-friendly offensive environments.

Abraham Almonte, OF, Diamondbacks: The journeyman is one of several Arizona outfielders to warrant placement on this list. Indeed, his performance is arguably the most surprising and interesting of all. Almonte isn’t just on a hot run with the stick. He’s showing impeccable plate discipline (43 strikeouts vs. 41 walks) and heretofore unseen power (ten home runs, .279 ISO). Almonte has also swiped eight bags. Not a bad stat line for a center-field capable player.

Brandon Barnes, OF, Indians: Though he has seen just 21 MLB plate appearances since the end of the 2016 season, the former Astros and Rockies outfielder is clamoring for attention right now at Triple-A. He’s off to a .297/.352/.581 slash with 15 homers and five steals through 256 plate appearances. He was similarly impressive last year at the highest level of the minors, albeit in a very different offensive environment.

Andres Blanco, INF, Braves: Blanco’s late-career renaissance with the Phillies faded in 2017, but he has been turning in strong offensive numbers at Triple-A ever since. He didn’t earn a call-up despite a nice showing last year with the Brewers’ top affiliate. This year, Blanco owns a .261/.371/.450 slash with tetn long balls through 294 plate appearances. Perhaps his luck will be different this time around, though it’s tough to see a path up in Atlanta.

Drew Butera, C, Rockies: He has already been up and down to the majors this year, accepting an assignment back at Triple-A after clearing waivers. Nobody really thinks the veteran backstop — 36 in August — is a sudden offensive powerhouse. But hey, it’s a nice to see the glove-first performer enjoy a good run at this late stage of his career. He’s drawing walks at a 16.1% clip against a 17.9% strikeout rate and carries an appealing .311/.429/.467 batting line through 112 plate appearances at Albuquerque.

Danny Espinosa, INF, Mets: Espinosa had his moments over the years with the Nats, but there were times when his plate discipline reached untenable levels. It seemed he was all but done for after a brutal run over the past two years. But the switch-hitting middle infielder is showing new life at Syracuse, where he carries a .256/.340/.462 slash along with 11 home runs and eight steals. He’s striking out at a pleasing 21.1% rate while walking 10.5% of the time.

Ryan Flaherty, INF, Indians: Flaherty never turned the corner for the Orioles and couldn’t sustain a hot start last year with the Braves. Now, he’s turning in solid work at Triple-A with the Cleveland org. His .265/.370/.455 batting line is only good for a 108 wRC+, but that’s a notable enough showing for a guy who was valued a fair bit for his versatile glovework.

Ryan Goins, INF, White Sox: Say it with me, Jays fans: “I told you so!!!” Many of the Toronto faithful were sad to see Goins depart, though he was never much of an offensive performer. Now? He’s walking (12.9%) and slugging (.503) at personal-high rates. He’s now through 224 plate appearances of .314/.404/.503 hitting (133 wRC+) for the Sox’ top affiliate.

Logan Morrison, 1B, Yankees: It’s not clear whether there’s any chance the Yankees can shoehorn LoMo into their roster, but if not he might well end up elsewhere. Morrison is showing some signs that his power stroke could be back; through 120 plate appearances, he has recorded nine long balls and sports a .318 ISO/.564 SLG. He isn’t getting on base as much as one might like, but he isn’t striking out much either.

Chris Parmelee, 1B/OF, Dodgers: He didn’t even appear with an affiliated team last year, but the former Twins and O’s big leaguer is back in action at the Double-A level for the Dodgers. He’s striking out at a 27.2% clips but drawing walks at an even more robust rate (16.0%) and driving the ball (eight home runs, .239 ISO).

Jace Peterson, INF, Orioles: Peterson has appeared with four MLB organizations in his five seasons of action. He’s currently busy tamping down on the strikeouts that crept into his game (13.7% strikeout rate vs 11.9% walk rate) and showing a bit of a power boost (six homers, .178 ISO) at Triple-A with the O’s.

Rob Refsnyder, INF/OF, Reds: Though he couldn’t stick with the Yankees and Rays, Refsnyder is making another bid for the majors after an early season trade sent him from the D-Backs’ top affiliate to that of the Cincinnati organization. Refsnyder is a bit BABIP-reliant (.410) but is obviously making good contact, as he’s through 233 plate appearances of .325/.395/.522 hitting.

Travis Snider, OF, Diamondbacks: It seems hard to believe that Snider is still just 31 years of age and hasn’t sniffed the big league since way back in 2015. He’s edging back on the map now with an interesting return to the affiliated ranks after a year away. Through 232 plate appearances, the left-handed hitter has drawn 39 walks against 49 strikeouts while also managing to put the ball over the fence six times.

Matt Szczur, OF, Diamondbacks: Now a month away from his 30th birthday, Szczur is showing newfound power — albeit in a fairly small sample. Through 112 plate appearances with the Snakes’ top affiliate, he has a whopping .303 isolated power mark and seven dingers.

Ruben Tejada, INF, Mets: The 29-year-old is back with the Mets organization after a fairly memorable career opening there. He hasn’t touched the majors since 2017 but is busy raising eyebrows at Triple-A. Through 109 plate appearances, Tejada has as many walks as strikeouts and a cool .359/.450/.576 batting line.

A few other interesting or notable minor-league hitters who are performing well but did not quite meet all the list’s specifications: Dilson Herrera & Arismendy Alcantara (only 1+ years MLB service);  Mikie Mahtook & Yasmany Tomas (not on minor-league deals); Yadiel Hernandez (signed a minor-league deal out of Cuba but has yet to debut in majors)

The Mets Bullpen: Makeover Fail?

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It’s still too soon to make any conclusive statements on the outcome of the Mets’ offseason roster revamping efforts. Relief pitching, in particular, can turn on a dime. But it’s safe to say that the team’s bullpen makeover is not looking pretty at this moment.

GM Brodie Van Wagenen made the relief corps a key part of his offseason strategy. He had already sewn up much of the roster work by mid-December, at which time he declared that the organization had “shored up the bullpen with two premium arms.” The club went on to add a pair of lefties and entered camp thinking it had made huge strides in the pen.

The relief additions absorbed a large chunk of the Mets’ somewhat limited transactional capital. Setup man Jeurys Familia took a $30MM guarantee over three years, while southpaw Justin Wilson went for $10MM in two seasons. Combined, that was just over half the cash promised by the Mets in free agency. Adding high-octane young closer Edwin Diaz meant taking on big money through the Robinson Cano contract and coughing up recent #6 overall draft choice Jarred Kelenic, who is streaking up prospect boards. The deal also sent out veteran righty Anthony Swarzak, who hasn’t been perfect but does carry a 3.12 ERA with a 33:14 K/BB ratio on the season.

Not so much, as it turns out. The Mets are leading the league lead in blown saves, having accrued a huge volume of them in the past thirty days. The relief unit has fared poorly as a whole in terms of bottom-line results, though it has hardly been the worst (that’d be the division-rival Nats) in sapping win-percentage. While the overall picture isn’t catastrophic, the failures have been magnified by situational timing.

Glance at the Mets-specific WPA leaderboard and you’ll find Seth Lugo leading the way. That’s unsurprising, as the holdover hurler has been the team’s most effective relief pitcher. The only other clear positives in WPA? Wilmer Font, Tim Peterson, Hector Santiago, and Ryan O’Rourke — an assemblage of pitchers who have combined for more walks than strikeouts. Only Font, who has turned in passable work as a long man, is even still on the roster. Diaz leads the team in WPA-added (4.11), but has wiped out the positive contributions with several meltdowns (-4.64).

That’s … sort of the opposite of what the Mets were hoping for. An efficiently constructed bullpen can eat innings well enough when a game is out of reach and maximize a team’s chances of winning the games in which it’s positioned to do so. We often excuse sequencing luck and situational failings for other starters and position players, citing a need to look at broad samples. That’s true to an extent in the relief world, but at the end of the day, high-leverage performance and bottom-line results are the entire game for short-work pitchers.

So, it has been a wreck thus far, but can we at least explain away some of the struggles? And can the pen be salvaged?

Let’s start with the new additions — especially, the marquee closer. Diaz is still just 25. He’s averaging over 97 mph with his heater and carrying the same spin rates he did in his unreal 2018 effort. While his swinging-strike rate is down a touch from last year, it’s a healthy 17.7%. He’s pounding the zone like he did in 2018. The difference? He has gone from a .281 BABIP-against and 10.6% HR/FB rate to .406 and 19.2%, respectively. Statcast tells us there’s likely some luck in there — Diaz’s .276 xwOBA falls well under his .331 wOBA — but also some cause for concern. Opposing hitters are compiling a whopping 47.8% hard-contact rate and 15.2 degree launch angle. It seems the physical tools are still in good working order, so this may be a matter of finding some adjustments or simply waiting out a spell of misfortune.

That’s reasonably promising. Diaz was acquired to get results, but there’s no particular reason to think he can’t get back to doing so. The Mets still need to get him the ball with a lead, however, and there are greater questions with regard to the man that was hired to be the top setup option.

Familia was back to being his sturdy and reliable self in 2018 after an injury-riddled ’17 campaign. But he’s now on the shelf for the second time this year with shoulder issues. And he carries a 7.81 ERA with 28 strikeouts and 21 walks in 27 2/3 innings. The worries go well beyond the results. Familia has lost velocity and chases out of the zone, resulting in a swinging-strike drop. There’s some promise in the Statcast numbers, as Familia is only allowing 32.1% hard contact and has an even bigger x/wOBA spread than Diaz (.071). That’s some consolation, but there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty — especially in the near term — for the 29-year-old.

There are health problems as well for Wilson, who has been limited by elbow troubles and is now dealing with another setback. It’s hard to draw many conclusions from the 9 1/3 innings that the southpaw did throw. He sat in his customary 95 mph range but threw first-pitch strikes at a career-worst 50% rate, exhibited a swinging-strike drop, and allowed two long balls. The Mets’ other southpaw addition, Luis Avilan, was hammered before going down with his own elbow problems.

The situation is rather grim at the moment. Of their new additions, only Diaz is presently available. He and Lugo are holding down the high-leverage spots, with the struggling Robert Gsellman third on the totem pole despite a 4.81 ERA. Font has delivered decent results of late, but isn’t getting strikeouts and has bounced around the league in recent seasons. And those are the established members of the staff.

Otherwise, the Mets are carrying a group of unfamiliar arms. Daniel Zamora and Chris Flexen have not been good in short samples. Stephen Nogosek is a total wild card. Brooks Pounders has an awesome pitching name, but has already had a bit of a journeyman existence at 28 years of age. He has good numbers at Triple-A, but there’s a reason the Indians let him go. That group of unestablished hurlers followed an array of others who already failed to grab hold of MLB jobs. The Mets have now cycled through twenty relievers, one of whom (Nogosek) has yet to debut. Unsurprisingly, the cupboard is rather bare. The club hasn’t yet trotted out veteran Ervin Santana or called up youngster Anthony Kay, but the former hasn’t looked good and the latter is being developed as a starter. Arquimedes Caminero is the only other hurler in the organization with substantial MLB experience that hasn’t yet received a shot to this point. You can be sure he would have if he had shown any kind of spark at Syracuse.

Unfortunately, there’s really not much for the front office to do at this point but wait and hope while continuing to take chances on the spare pieces that shake loose from other clubs. That process has resulted thus far in Font and Pounders. The Mets simply aren’t in position — 3 games under .500, 7.5 off of the division pace — to force a significant trade. They’d be looking for multiple pieces regardless. It may take a miracle for Van Wagenen is to pull off this makeover, at least in the present campaign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Top 50 Trade Candidates For The 2019 MLB Trade Deadline

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We’re bringing back our annual series in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. As the summer trade market develops on a fairly tight timeline, you can expect more regular updates when modifications to the list are warranted. We’re already seeing real action this year; most recently, Edwin Encarnacion was moved to the Yankees. (He had been listed in the #4 spot below in the initial draft of this post.)

The methodology, if you can call it that, is pretty straightforward. We’re ordering players based upon a combination of trade value and trade likelihood.

In terms of trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field value — with a premium on an ability to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit.

With regard to trade likelihood, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t presently in a position where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.

It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Here’s the first list, with some additional names and teams to keep an eye on appended at the end (all statistics current as of June 13th):

1. Will Smith, RP, Giants: What really is there to say? A shut-down rental closer who throws from the left side and isn’t all that expensive ($4.225MM) … yeah, that’s going to be a popular trade target. Smith would upgrade every contender’s roster and suit every payroll. Accordingly, the acquisition cost will be high. Want more on Smith? Read this.

2. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants: This version of Bumgarner shares quite a few attributes with the vintage article, but there are some telltale signs of age and wear. He’s posting an 11.6% swinging-strike rate, but is allowing 1.35 home runs per nine. He’s back over 92 mph with his average fastball, but opposing hitters have an 89.7 mph exit velocity and 43.4% hard-hit rate (career-worst figures for MadBum). He’s affordable, but not a bargain at a $12MM annual salary. Bumgarner is a very good and highly likely trade candidate, but probably not a top-shelf rental starter who’ll draw high-end prospect talent.

3. Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays: “Controllable starter” alert! Everybody wants those, it seems. The 28-year-old is earning $7.4MM this year with another arb campaign remaining. While the Jays could hold if they fancy a shot at contention next year, or see a path to an extension, it seems like a good opportunity to cash in a pitcher that has had some ups and downs. The inconsistencies and acquisition cost will be of concern, but Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards just explained why just about every team in baseball ought to have some level of interest in the grounder-heavy righty.

4. Justin Smoak, 1B/DH, Blue Jays: Did you miss on Encarnacion? Well, perhaps a cheaper, somewhat younger, switch-hitting piece whose more capable of playing first base would be a better fit. Smoak now stands out as the top rental bat, as he’s turning in a third-straight productive season at the plate at an affordable $8MM salary.

5. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres: The Friars are putting out word they’d need to be overwhelmed to deal Yates, who is the organization’s latest ultra-successful salvage reliever. But the fact that the club is interested in fielding offers at all represents an indication of a potential willingness to deal on a player who comes with another season of arb control. Yates has arguably been the best reliever in baseball this year and he’s earning peanuts. There ought to be some competition once Ken Giles of the Blue Jays is back from the IL, but for now Yates appears to be the top potential relief target.

6-7. Tony Watson (Giants) & Jake Diekman (Royals), RP: It’s hard to imagine that these southpaws won’t change uniforms this summer. Watson has flaunted his exceptional command by leading the league with a ridiculous 42.9% chase rate and walking less than a batter per nine. He’s easily worth his own healthy $6.5MM payday. The deal also includes some not-insignificant incentive pay based upon appearances, along with a player option that provides Watson with injury/performance protection, so that’ll factor in to the trade return. Diekman has by some measures been better than ever. The 32-year-old is humming along at a 17.3% swinging-strike rate. He’s dishing out a typically hefty volume of walks, but is showing some added promise in that regard by throwing first strikes at a career-best 61.9% clip. Diekman is amply affordable, too. He’s promised just $2.25MM this year, with a $500K payout for a 2020 mutual option.

8. Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Tigers: Though his age advantage isn’t quite as relevant in a rental scenario, the 27-year-old does offer some benefits over the hitters noted above. He has reeled off a string of quality seasons at the plate and is an increasingly palatable outfield defender, thus increasing his potential roster matches. The $9.95MM salary shouldn’t be much of a barrier. Castellanos has also boosted his output since a tepid start, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him climb this board in the weeks to come.

9-10. Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers; Whit Merrifield, INF/OF, Royals: If we were ranking possibly available players by trade value alone, these two would take the top spots. Boyd is turning in a breakout effort in his Super Two season, leaving three years of highly valuable control remaining. Merrifield has only further established himself as a quiet star who’d fit on every roster in baseball. He’s also now inked to a contract that made sense for him but also unlocked yet more value for the K.C. organization. Just how willing these organizations are to deal these players remains to be seen, but both are sure to draw widespread interest and significant offers.

11-12. Sam Dyson (Giants) & Shane Greene (Tigers), RP: Good setup men are always in demand, so these experienced high-leverage hurlers will hold appeal. Neither has to be dealt, with a season of arb control remaining, but the time feels right for a move in both cases. Neither is a dominant strikeout pitcher, but both feature quality K/BB numbers and good groundball rates. Dyson is earning his $5MM salary with 32 frames of 2.53 ERA pitching that’s fully supported by his peripherals (8.4 K/9 vs. 1.4 BB/9, 59.3% groundball rate). Greene isn’t going to keep up an absurd 0.96 ERA, but he is certainly throwing the ball well (9.3 K/9 vs. 2.6 BB/9, 51.4% groundball rate). He’s a nice piece at a $4MM salary with another arb year to go.

13-14. Tanner Roark (Reds) & Jordan Lyles (Pirates), SP: We’re not going to bury these NL Central competitors just yet, as they are still within striking distance and won’t want to sell if they don’t have to. But both face uphill battles and it’ll be awfully tempting to cash in on some veterans, particularly those on expiring contracts. Roark has exceeded expectations in Cincinnati and could be a nice piece this summer if the division is truly out of reach. Ditto Lyles, who is currently on a brief injured list respite but is already penciled in for a return start later this week. Roark is earning a hefty but fair $10MM salary, while Lyles is promised just $2.05MM on the year.

15. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants: We already took a look recently at the Panda, who’s available for sale or rent. TL;DR: If you’re a team of means by no means, he just might make you king of the road. (Sandoval has a 142 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, thus supporting my over-played cultural reference. Here’s a split of greater real-world relevance: the switch-hitter has been much better against right-handed pitching.)

16-17. Alex Colome (White Sox) & Mychal Givens (Orioles), RP: Though he’s carrying a 2.30 ERA, Colome is unlikely to maintain a .113 BABIP-against. With anticipated regression mixed in, the 30-year-old looks like much the same pitcher he has always been. It’s nice that he has been doing a solid job in the closer’s role for the White Sox, but that’s not going to sway many GMs in this day and age. He’s eligible for arbitration in 2020 but is already earning a hefty $7,325,000 salary. With the White Sox hoping to stay in the race this year and increase their competitiveness next season, there are some scenarios where Colome ends up staying in Chicago. You could say the same of Givens. While the O’s lack any reason for holding onto him for his immediate MLB value, he could be held in hopes of a bounceback. Givens is earning only $2.15MM this year and is controllable for two more seasons. You might wonder whether he’s even really marketable at this point. I’d argue he is. Though he has been shredded by home runs, along with the rest of the Orioles staff, Givens is sitting at a customary 95+ mph with his heater and is getting swings and misses at a career-best 14.9% rate. Plenty of teams around the game would love to get ahold of Givens and his powerful right arm.

18-19. Corey Dickerson & Melky Cabrera OF, Pirates: The Bucs are in much the same position as the Reds. We’re in no rush to say they can’t make a run. But the word is that the Pirates are interested in moving Dickerson even as they field offers on Cabrera. That’s a bit odd in some respects, given that the former is younger, is a more capable fielder, and has a better recent overall recent past at the plate. But the Pirates may prefer Cabrera from a value perspective, while some other teams may rather have Dickerson even though he costs more. Regardless, roster pressures are pushing a move of some kind here even if the Pittsburgh org tries to remain competitive past the trade deadline.

20. Andrew Cashner, SP, Orioles: Did I say starting pitcher? In that role, Cashner has been a marginal performer. And he’s earning $8MM with some incentives available for more. (Cashner almost certainly won’t throw enough innings for his 2020 option to vest.) It’s tough to imagine a contender viewing him as a big rotation upgrade after 70 1/3 innings of 4.73 ERA ball on the heels of a poor 2018 showing, but he could function as a fill-in piece down the stretch. Much more intriguing is the possibility of moving Cashner into a flexible relief capacity, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has argued. Cashner is sitting at 94 with his four-seamer and his change has become a weapon; perhaps he’ll finally find his calling in a new-age role. The O’s will probably have to eat money and won’t be able to hold out for a huge return, but there ought to be some interest in a market that could end up being rather weak in rental pitching.

21-22. Dee Gordon (2B) & Mike Leake (SP), Mariners: Gordon is doing enough at the plate for his speed to play. His defensive metrics have faded but perhaps scouts still believe in the glovework. Leake is also still a useful player, tallying a 4.14 ERA over 95 2/3 innings despite allowing 2.07 homers per nine. Both are quite expensive, but the M’s have already proven capable of sorting out the financials in deals involving Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion. Leake’s no-trade rights will play a role in his market situation.

23-24. Danny Duffy (Royals) & Jeff Samardzija (Giants), SP: Duffy is owed $15MM and change for this year and the two that follow; Shark is earning $18MM this season and next. Neither has been especially impressive this year, and both have shown velocity declines, but they’re each functioning as capable starters who could be useful pieces this year and into the future. Their respective clubs will need to eat money and temper expectations on the prospect side if they’re to make deals.

25-26. Trey Mancini (Orioles) & Hunter Renfroe (Padres), OF: The Baltimore org is “open to anything” when it comes to its best player, while the San Diego outfit is willing to consider scenarios involving its own corner outfield slugger, who has drawn interest. Both of these players are going into arbitration this fall, the latter as a Super Two, so there’s no real rush from that perspective. For the O’s, it’ll be tempting to cash in one of the org’s few desirable deadline pieces. For the Friars, there’s an outfield logjam that will ultimately have to be cleared in some manner.

27-30. Craig Stammen (Padres), Francisco Liriano (Pirates), David Hernandez & Jared Hughes (Reds): Here we have a group of affordable, grey-haired vets who have generally been on nice late-career kicks. These guys will all be surefire trade candidates — if their teams decide to fold up shop. There’s still some uncertainty there, but it seems quite likely that several (if not all) of these hurlers will swap uniforms this summer.

31. Mike Minor, SP, Rangers: The window for a Minor deal is getting smaller even as his value increases. It’ll be hard for the Texas club to move him so long as it has a plausible shot at a Wild Card berth, particularly with a new ballpark on the horizon. Minor could instead be targeted for an extension, either over the summer or in the offseason to come. Trade offers may prove tempting, making for some tough tradeoffs for the Rangers front office to weigh.

32. Freddy Galvis, SS, Blue Jays: The switch-hitting shortstop is taking down $4MM this year with a $1MM buyout for 2020. Galvis has fallen way off his hot early pace and presently carries a .254/.293/.425 slash. He does feature a capable glove and has been known to run into a pitch (ten home runs in 266 plate appearances this season). It’s not a terribly exciting profile, but it’s also quite easy to imagine Galvis filling a useful role for the right contender. He ranks above the next group of names because he’s likelier to be moved as a pure rental on a no-doubt seller.

33-35. Derek Dietrich (Reds),  Tim Beckham (Mariners) & Jonathan Villar (Orioles), INF: This year’s market does have some interesting infield pieces. Why go for a boring, glove-only piece when you can add some potential fireworks? All three of these players come with one additional season of arbitration control, effectively delivering floating-value, zero-buyout options to an acquiring team. Dietrich has been electric at the plate and can play multiple positions. While he’s not known as a strong defender, the metrics have graded him as average at second base thus far in 2019. He’s earning only $2MM this year. While Cincy second baseman Scooter Gennett is nearing a return, he’s also slated for free agency at season’s end. The other two orgs are in more obvious seller stances, but also have reasons to want to hang onto these players. Beckham is a questionable defender at short, but he’s earning only $1.75MM and has real power along with a propensity for hot streaks. He could well fit the M’s roster in 2020. Villar would seem the likeliest to be cashed in, though the O’s will want to maintain some standards at the MLB level. He’s a well-regarded and versatile defender who has some home run pop of his own along with excellent speed. Villar is owed $4.825MM for the season.

36-37. Ian Kennedy (Royals) & Mark Melancon (Giants), RP: These two righties are vastly overpayed for their present ability levels, but that won’t preclude swaps. The former has found new life as a reliever; while he carries only a 3.86 ERA through 28 innings, he’s working at a highly promising combination of 11.6 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. It’s the opposite case for Melancon, whose useful 3.49 ERA in 28 1/3 frames is not quite supported by the peripherals. He is sporting a 61.0% groundball rate but has seen his typically stingy walk rate jump to 3.8 per nine and he’s only managing 7.6 K/9 as his chase rate continues to plummet.

38-39. Felipe Vazquez (Pirates) & Raisel Iglesias (Reds), RP: It’ll take a concerted effort to pry one of these arms free. That hasn’t happened in the past, though these two NL Central relievers often end up on these lists. These clubs may well fall out of the race by the time July draws to a close, but they’ll still be hoping for near-term contention thereafter. Vazquez and Iglesias are each pitching on cost-efficient contracts. The former is especially valuable, as he’s among the game’s best lefty relief arms and is cheaply controlled through 2023. The latter hasn’t been quite as dominant and his deal isn’t as appealing (it runs through 2021), but those factors perhaps also make him a more achievable target for contenders.

40-41. Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants & Wil Myers, OF, Padres: In theory, each of these players can appear at the position stated for the other. But they’re most likely to be considered at the spots listed. Both have hefty contracts that aren’t likely to be picked up in full. In the case of Belt, concussion worries create long-term risk. As for Myers, he just hasn’t performed to the levels he’s being paid. But it’s not hard to imagine both players being of interest. Belt is back to being an under-appreciated hitter, with a .248/.372/.461 slash and nine home runs over 250 plate appearances. Though Myers is humming along at a league-average clip with the bat, he has historically performed at about ten percent above league average at the plate, offers real defensive versatility, and can add value with his legs on the bases.

42-43. Kevin Pillar (Giants) & Billy Hamilton (Royals), OF: These are specialized, glove-and-run pieces who’d only make sense for certain clubs. But there’s often a need for such players. Pillar and Hamilton haven’t proven capable of commanding regular time but could be handy reserve pieces.

44. Adam Duvall, OF, Braves: After a brutal late-season run last year, Duvall was somewhat surprisingly tendered by the Braves. He hasn’t been needed in the majors despite raking at Triple-A. With a $2,875,000 salary, he’s an expensive back-up plan. It’ll be tempting to shed the remaining obligation and trade in his remaining two years of team control to help pay for other desired upgrades. Duvall could hold appeal to some contenders, particularly those that want their purchase to come with future value, or be sent to a rebuilding outfit.

45-46. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox & Alex Gordon, OF, Royals: Why aren’t they higher?! How can you even put them on this list?! There are two sides to this coin. Both of these pending free agents would be of real interest to contenders, as they’re highly respected veterans that are performing well in 2019. Large salary obligations are but a point of negotiation. Thing is, the Sox have continued to indicate that they see an ongoing connection with Abreu. And the situation is similar for Gordon and the Royals, with the added complication that he has no-trade rights and a disinclination to move. That said, things can always change, so they command a spot on the list for the time being.

47-48. Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets & Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals: These NL East rivals seem less likely to pack it in on July 31st than some of the other sub-.500 teams whose players feature above. After entering the season with big payrolls and bigger expectations, it’d be awfully tough to admit defeat unless the odds are truly insurmountable. That said, Wheeler and Rendon would arguably be the top pure rental players available if they hit the market, so they claim back-of-the-list spots. These clubs each have other conceivable rental pieces as well as more controllable stars. It seems premature to begin batting around concepts involving players such as Noah Syndergaard and Max Scherzer.

49-50. Trevor Bauer (SP) & Brad Hand (RP), Indians: It has been said that the Indians are “poised” to listen on these two excellent hurlers, but what does that really mean at this stage of the season? The Cleveland club may have miscalculated on the division-leading Twins, but it also sits at 4 games over .500 after weathering some major injuries and surprising performance issues. It’ll be a tall order to run down their rivals from Minnesota, but it’s not out of the question. And a Wild Card berth remains amply plausible. While it will prove tempting to consider some repositioning moves to bring in more affordable/controllable assets, that’s awfully hard to do when you’re a strong postseason contender.

Injured List

Ken Giles (Blue Jays), Mitch Haniger (Mariners), Jose Urena, Neil Walker, Martin Prado & Caleb Smith (Marlins), Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Tyson Ross & Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Alex Wood & Scooter Gennett (Reds)

Watch List

Blue Jays: Daniel Hudson, Joe Biagini, Aaron Sanchez, David Phelps, Eric Sogard

Orioles: Shawn Armstrong, Dylan Bundy

Tigers: Niko Goodrum, JaCoby Jones, Gordon Beckham

Royals: Brad Boxberger, Wily Peralta, Lucas Duda, Jorge Soler, Brad Keller, Scott Barlow, Jakob Junis, Terrance Gore, Martin Maldonado

Mariners: Domingo Santana, Roenis Elias, Cory Gearrin, Wade LeBlanc

Marlins: Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson, Sergio Romo, Adam Conley, Wei-Yin Chen

Giants: Reyes Moronta, Joe Panik, Stephen Vogt, Drew Pomeranz, Derek Holland, Trevor Gott

White Sox: Kelvin Herrera, Yolmer Sanchez, Yonder Alonso, Welington Castillo, Ivan Nova, Evan Marshall, James McCann

Padres: Manuel Margot, Robbie Erlin

Pirates: Kyle Crick, Steven Brault, Chris Archer, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte

Nationals: Max Scherzer, Sean Doolittle, Howie Kendrick, Yan Gomes, Matt Adams

Mets: Noah Syndergaard, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Todd Frazier, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jason Vargas

Angels: Tommy La Stella, Kole Calhoun, Jonathan Lucroy

Reds: Yasiel Puig, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, Zach Duke, Jose Iglesias

Cubs: Ian Happ

Yankees: Clint Frazier

Poll: Are Yankees AL Favorites?

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We’re still a month and a half from the July 31 trade deadline, but the arms race has already begun in the American League. The Yankees, one of the AL’s premier teams, pulled off a stunning move Saturday in acquiring prolific slugger Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners for young pitching prospect Juan Then. Including the 21 home runs he has already racked up this season, no major leaguer has hit more HRs than Encarnacion’s 284 dating back to his 2012 breakout with the Blue Jays.

It’s clear the Yankees are trying to construct a super lineup, and it’s likely that’s what they’ll have when injured star outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton return from their long absences in the coming weeks. A full-strength Yankees lineup will include Encarnacion at designated hitter, Judge in right field, Stanton in left, Aaron Hicks in center, Gary Sanchez at catcher, Luke Voit at first, Gleyber Torres at second, Didi Gregorius at short and DJ LeMahieu at third. If you’re an opposing pitcher set to face that lineup, you may hope for a torrential downpour.

On the other hand, the Yankees’ starting staff looks far from foolproof, as noted earlier this week. Injured ace Luis Severino should be in position to finally make his season debut after the All-Star break. Even if that happens, the Yankees will need slumping second and third starters James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka to right themselves. The club also has to find answers behind those two, as Domingo German (now injured), CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ haven’t been able to provide any of late. Don’t be surprised if general manager Brian Cashman, after acquiring Encarnacion, makes another significant trade for starting pitching as a result.

The Yankees’ bullpen, meanwhile, doesn’t need a lot of help. Their relief corps hasn’t matched some of the “best ever” talk that was out there entering the season, but it remains a strength. And the group will become all the more formidable if Dellin Betances, yet another injured standout, returns sometime in the summer. Betances, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman forming Voltron at the end of games would certainly make life easier on the Yankees’ rotation, regardless of whether the team adds a starter from outside.

At 42-27, the Yankees don’t carry the AL’s best record – not by a long shot. Both Minnesota and Houston are five games ahead of the Yankees, and the Astros have a few of their own cornerstones mending from injuries in Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa.

Let’s also not discount two of the Yankees’ division rivals, Tampa Bay and reigning World Series champion Boston. The Rays are just a half-game behind the Yankees and, for what it’s worth, own a far better run differential (plus-96 to plus-65). Furthermore, they could get back an important in-season reinforcement in budding ace Tyler Glasnow, out since May with a forearm strain, as early as next month.

The Red Sox don’t look as if they’ll approach last year’s 108-win outburst, and they have 5 1/2 games to make up on the Yankees. However, the sleeping giant in Boston may finally be waking up, having won four in a row. The Sox also own a plus-47 run differential that’s not quite befitting of their 38-34 record, and they’re another team with an injured starter (Nathan Eovaldi) who may return soon to complete its rotation.

Considering the presences of the Twins, Astros, Rays and Red Sox – not to mention a few other playoff contenders – the Yankees have their work cut out for them if they’re going to earn their first pennant since 2009. Plus, any or all of those teams could bolster themselves by the deadline. The Yankees, though, have managed one of the game’s top records thus far without many (or any) contributions from Encarnacion, Judge, Stanton – three players about to grace their lineup on a daily basis – and may see Severino and Betances return. With that in mind, is New York the favorite in the AL?

(Poll link for app users)

Are the Yankees AL favorites?
Yes 50.37% (3,986 votes)
No 49.63% (3,927 votes)
Total Votes: 7,913

The Yankees’ Rotation Looks Like A Problem

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Although the Yankees haven’t gotten an inning from injured ace Luis Severino this year, their rotation has done a decent job weathering his absence to this point. As of this writing, the Yankees’ starting staff ranks 10th in the majors in K/BB ratio, 12th in ERA and 13th in fWAR, and has helped the injury-laden club to a 41-26 start and a half-game lead in the American League East. While most of the unit’s numbers are passable in the aggregate, it’s just 19th in the game in FIP and has begun faltering of late.

Without Severino, who’s out for at least another month because of a lat strain, left-hander James Paxton stands out as the Yankees’ No. 1 starter. The former Mariner got off to a white-hot start this year before going to the injured list May 5 with a left knee issue. Paxton hasn’t been good since then, having allowed nine earned runs on 11 hits and seven walks (with 12 strikeouts) in 11 1/3 innings, though he still boasts strong numbers on the season. The 30-year-old’s not worth worrying about from the Yankees’ perspective if he’s healthy, but as someone who has never thrown more than 160 1/3 innings in a season, it’s anyone’s guess whether Paxton will hold up into the fall.

Like Paxton, right-hander Masahiro Tanaka is someone whose rotation spot is etched in stone. But Tanaka has also declined of late, in part because his signature splitter hasn’t been up to par in 2019. That said, considering Tanaka owns a 3.58 ERA/4.01 FIP in 83 innings this year, his presence is hardly a detriment to New York’s rotation.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, solutions are harder to find after Paxton and Tanaka. Domingo German, who stepped into the Yankees’ rotation to replace Severino, looked like a breakout star through mid-May. The 26-year-old has come crashing down since then, though, and has been on the IL since June 9 with a left hip flexor strain. German has logged an ugly 5.74 ERA/5.25 FIP over his most recent five starts, despite his 11.14 K/9 against 1.69 BB/9 during that 26 2/3-inning span. Beyond that, it’s worth noting German is already nearing his innings total from all of 2018, having tossed 70 (24 fewer than last year), and has never reached 125 in a professional season.

Worsening the Yankees’ situation, aging lefties J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia have each fallen short of expectations this season. Happ, whom the Yankees re-signed to a two-year, $34MM contract over the winter, has managed a 4.66 ERA/5.34 FIP through 75 1/3 frames. According to Baseball Savant, the 36-year-old Happ’s hard-hit rate against has risen by almost 8 percent since last season, while his strikeout rate has fallen by nearly 7 percent.

The soon-to-retire Sabathia, meanwhile, isn’t having the final season he or the Yankees envisioned. The potential Hall of Famer has pitched to a playable 4.42 ERA, yet his 5.98 FIP is unsightly, and he has only completed six innings on two occasions. Moreover, Sabathia’s groundball rate is 6.5 percent below his career mark, which has helped lead to a massive increase in home runs against. Sabathia yielded homers on 11.7 percent of fly balls in 2018, but the number has climbed to 20.8 this season. While Sabathia reinvented himself over the previous couple seasons as a soft-contact specialist, hitters have increased their hard-hit rate against him by better than 5 percent since a year ago.

Barring outside acquisitions, it appears the suddenly slumping Yankees are stuck with their current alignment of starters for the time being. Along with Severino and German, the Yankees are missing Jordan Montgomery (out for the year because of Tommy John surgery) and Jonathan Loaisiga (strained shoulder). Those injuries have depleted the Yankees’ depth, which has left them to deploy reliever Chad Green as an opener to underwhelming results.

In positive news for the Yankees, Severino’s as good a reinforcement as you could possibly land during the season. On paper, he’d form a more-than-capable trio with Paxton and Tanaka. It would be risky to expect Severino to immediately return in top form, though, meaning it would behoove the club to add at least one new starter before the July 31 trade deadline. It seems fair to expect any of Madison Bumgarner, Matthew Boyd or Marcus Stroman to end up in a Yankees uniform by then. Acquiring one of those three could make the difference in the Yankees holding off the Rays and Red Sox in the AL East or having to overcome a one-game playoff for the third straight season. The way the Yankees’ current starters are trending, it’s going to be difficult to keep their rivals at bay even as injured stars come back on the offensive side.

The Overlooked Pirate

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Andrew McCutchen was the face of the franchise during his time with the Pirates, one of their best players ever, but it became obvious a couple years back they’d have to trade him. Entering 2018, McCutchen’s final year of team control, the low-budget Pirates knew they weren’t going to extend the outfielder. Consequently, Pittsburgh traded McCutchen to San Francisco for two prospects – right-hander Kyle Crick and outfielder Bryan Reynolds – as well as $500K in international bonus pool space. Crick debuted first with the Pirates and has been a quality piece of their bullpen, but Reynolds has been even an more impressive major leaguer thus far.

Reynolds was a 2016 second-round pick of the Giants who ranked among their top five prospects when they traded him for McCutchen. At the time, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said of Reynolds: “Bryan is an effective offensive player that also plays quality defense. We look forward to working with Bryan to maximize his tools and help him become a quality well-rounded Major League player who can impact a game in many ways beyond his quality bat.”

That sounds right up to now. Since the Pirates promoted Reynolds to their roster April 20, the 24-year-old has slashed a tremendous .354/.407/.563 (157 wRC+) with five home runs in 171 plate appearances. As a member of the Pirates’ outfield, he has accounted for three Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-0.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in 335 innings divided between left and center. The package has been worth 1.7 fWAR, making Reynolds one of the most valuable first-year players in baseball. If not for Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., there would be far more NL Rookie of the Year buzz centering on Reynolds.

Many a rookie has fizzled after a blazing start, though, so it’s worth checking into the odds of Reynolds continuing to post above-average production going forward. The switch-hitting Reynolds was a .312/.373/.472 batter in 1,217 minor league plate appearances, which augurs well, though all but 57 of those attempts came in Double-A ball or lower. Reynolds always ran high batting averages on balls in play in the minors, but his .439 BABIP as a Pirate flat-out isn’t going to sustain itself. It ranks first in the league among those who have totaled at least 170 PA this year. Reynolds is on pace to accrue upward of 400 trips to the plate this season. Of hitters who amassed at least that many a year ago, no one put up a BABIP better than .375.

Going solely by BABIP, Reynolds’ production is going to fall. Reynolds also appears unlikely to keep up his .210 isolated power, considering it never rose above .188 during extended looks in the minors (and that occurred during a low-A stint in 2010). He’s also hitting the plurality of batted balls on the ground, which doesn’t bode well for power. That said, all hope isn’t lost for Reynolds. According to Statcast, Reynolds ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected slugging percentage (.439; 53rd percentile), weighted-on base average (.347; 62nd percentile), average exit velocity (90.1 mph; 69th percentile), sprint speed (73rd percentile), hard-hit percentage (47.4; 88th percentile) and expected batting average (.300; 92nd percentile).

So, while Reynolds’ .412 weighted on-base average ranks 14th in the league and puts him a few points above Nolan Arenado, he’s not that good. Reynolds’ xwOBA sits 55 points lower than his xwOBA, though it still places him a point or two above household names such as Alex Gordon, DJ LeMahieu and Jose Altuve. Like LeMahieu, Reynolds walks at a slightly below-average clip (7.5 percent). Meanwhile, Reynolds’ strikeout percentage (22.2) is a tad above average. Combining the two numbers makes Reynolds an average performer in terms of K/BB ratio. And the fact that Reynolds hasn’t yet shown any vulnerability from either side of the plate only makes him a more appealing offensive piece.

Reynolds’ bottom-line production through almost two months of his major league career paint him as a budding star. A peek under the hood suggests he’s not there yet, but Reynolds does look like a legitimate building block for the Pirates. He and Crick are amounting to a nice return for one year of control over McCutchen, whom the Pirates weren’t going to bring back. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team that doesn’t appear to have made out that well in sending Gerrit Cole, Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow away in other key trades dating back to January 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

David Freese: Red Hot

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David Freese is best known for one small stretch of baseball – the 2011 World Series – in which his .348/.464/.696 slash in 28 plate appearances helped lead the Cardinals to a title and earn him World Series MVP honors. However, as great as Freese was during the Cardinals’ triumph over the Rangers seven years ago, he’s no one-hit wonder. Freese has been a solid major leaguer since his career began in 2009, evidenced by his .276/.351/.422 line (115 wRC+) with 110 home runs and 19.9 fWAR with the Cards, Angels, Pirates and Dodgers. Now 36 years old, Freese isn’t showing any serious signs of slowing down.

With the Pirates out of contention at the end of last August and facing Freese’s impending trip to free agency, they traded him to the Dodgers. Los Angeles was enamored enough of Freese, who thrived with the club over a small sample last season, that it re-signed him to a one-year, $4.5MM guarantee almost immediately after its World Series loss to Boston. Seven months later, it’s looking like a fantastic decision on the Dodgers’ part.

A third baseman for most of his career, Freese has essentially been a first base-only option for the Dodgers this year. From an offensive standpoint, first is one of the most demanding positions in the game, and Freese has handled it with aplomb. The right-handed hitter has  batted an eyebrow-raising .308/.419/.635 with eight home runs and a .327 ISO through 124 plate appearances, pulverizing both same- and left-handed pitchers along the way. Of hitters who have come to the plate at least 120 times this year, Freese’s 177 wRC+ ranks fifth.

Is Freese this good? Considering what he has done over the life of his career, no. However, the veteran has made real strides in his advanced age. His 16.1 percent walk rate is nearly twice his lifetime figure, while his strikeout percentage (21.8) is down a bit relative to his career. At the same time, Freese is making far more hard contact and less soft contact than usual, according to FanGraphs, and putting the ball more in the air and less on the ground than he has in any other season. His 10.2-degree launch angle is far above his usual norm, per Statcast. All of that’s a recipe for added power. Interestingly, Freese is hitting to the opposite field more, though it certainly hasn’t led to a decrease in meaningful contact.

Freese’s .348 batting average on balls in play indicates good fortune has been on his side, especially for a slow runner, but it’s not a bloated figure in his case. He has posted a .343 lifetime BABIP, after all. On the other hand, Freese’s .442 weighted on-base average – which sits third in the majors – definitely isn’t going to hold. However, his .395 expected wOBA sits 17th and isn’t indicative of a player who’s at high risk of seeing his production crash to Earth.

Freese may no longer be an everyday player, but unlike most major leaguers in their late 30s, he remains a valuable contributor. Not only could Freese help the title-contending Dodgers to a World Series in 2019, but it appears he’ll encounter a fair amount of interest in free agency in the offseason. That’s if the Dodgers don’t re-sign him first, of course.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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