Poll: AL MVP Front-Runner
The American League Most Valuable Player race took an unfortunate turn over the weekend when the Angels ruled transcendent center fielder Mike Trout out for the rest of the season. The out-of-contention Angels have nothing to left to play for, but the final couple weeks of the year could have helped Trout, a future Hall of Famer, bolster his MVP case. The 28-year-old has already won the award twice (arguably not enough times considering his brilliance to this point), and he looked like the favorite to take home the honors again this season before a foot injury took him down. Trout could still end up as the AL MVP, but given that he’s on a bad team and hasn’t played since Sept. 7, it’s increasingly likely a challenger will rise up and win it.
If we’re to believe Fangraphs’ version of wins above replacement, 10 American League hitters have been worth at least 5.0 fWAR this year. Trout’s easily in first place, having racked up 8.6 fWAR, while Astros third baseman Alex Bregman‘s next at 7.4. Underrated Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien (6.6) is one of three players thereafter who have bettered the 6.0 mark, with Red Sox right fielder/reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts (6.3) and shortstop Xander Bogaerts (6.2) filling out the group. Beyond them, there’s Astros outfielder George Springer, A’s third baseman Matt Chapman, Red Sox third bagger Rafael Devers, Yankees utilityman DJ LeMahieu and White Sox third baseman Yoan Moncada with 5.0 fWAR.
There are also six starting pitchers in the bunch with 5.0 or more fWAR – the Astros’ Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, the Rays’ Charlie Morton, the Indians’ Shane Bieber and the White Sox’s Lucas Giolito – for what it’s worth. However, it’s incredibly difficult for a pitcher to earn MVP honors. Verlander pulled it off back in 2011, but he was the first hurler since 1992 to do so. It’s improbable he or any other pitcher will accomplish the feat this year. Likewise, it’s difficult to imagine a player on a non-contender (Trout aside) earning the MVP this year. That may well rule out anyone from the two Sox-wearing teams.
By process of elimination, the MVP race might come down to Trout, Bregman, Semien, Springer (though it’s tough to see him winning when teammate Bregman has clearly been the more valuable player), Chapman (who’d likely lose votes to Semien) and LeMahieu.
Of course, it’s highly doubtful the voters will make the decision largely by the polarizing WAR stat, and understandably so. There will be plenty who place the most value on the dominance of Trout despite his team’s fecklessness. Others will give the nod to Bregman, who has been on an absolute tear in the season’s second half (the same goes for Semien, by the way). Meanwhile, LeMahieu has thrived as a multi-positional player in the game’s biggest market after joining the Yankees last offseason on what now looks like a bargain contract of two years and $24MM.
The Yankees and Astros are heading to the playoffs as elite teams, which could help their MVP contenders’ causes. The A’s are also likely on their way, so the same applies to their prospective MVPs. All said, it’ll be an interesting final couple weeks of the regular season as all of the above vie for the award. As of now, which player do you think should win?
(Poll link for app users)
Who's the AL MVP front-runner?
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Trout 59% (5,446)
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Bregman 19% (1,768)
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LeMahieu 15% (1,430)
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Semien 3% (314)
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Other (specify in comments) 3% (270)
Total votes: 9,228
Poll: Stephen Strasburg’s Opt-Out Decision
Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg is one of a few major leaguers who will have an interesting opt-out decision to make once the offseason arrives. Strasburg will still have four years and $100MM left on the extension he signed with the Nationals in 2016 then, but he has done well in 2019 to make a case for a raise. However, there are extenuating circumstances that could prevent Strasburg from taking the gamble on entering free agency over the winter.
By now, everyone who follows baseball closely knows Strasburg’s story. He’s a former No. 1 overall pick and uber-prospect who debuted with great fanfare in 2010, has dealt with myriad injuries since then, but has largely been outstanding when healthy enough to take the mound. Now, with a potential trip to the open market looming, the 31-year-old is arguably better than ever.
While Strasburg doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his younger days, it hasn’t served as a detriment to his results. He’s at full strength now, having made 30 starts and amassed 191 innings, and has logged a 3.49 ERA/3.22 FIP with 10.79 K/9 against 2.31 BB/9. Strasburg ranks fourth among qualified starters in innings, seventh in fWAR (5.4), 16th in K/BB ratio (4.67) and 31st among all pitchers in expected weighted on-base average against (.261, which isn’t far from the .270 real wOBA hitters have registered off him). Teammate Max Scherzer rightly gets the lion’s share of attention when it comes to Nats starters, but this year’s version of Strasburg has been lights-out. Previous iterations haven’t been far off, injuries notwithstanding.
Besides Astros co-ace Gerrit Cole, it’s tough to find a better starter than Strasburg who could reach the open market in a couple months. Strasburg, if he opts out, wouldn’t approach the $200MM mark, as Cole could. But Strasburg might be able to outdo the $100MM he’d leave on the table by vacating his current deal. The Boras Corporation client would obviously be taking an enormous risk by heading to free agency, though, as the market hasn’t been enamored of 30-somethings who come with qualifying offers (as Strasburg undoubtedly would) in recent years. That said, there have been over-30 pitchers who have raked in nine figures in free agency in recent years. To name just a couple prominent examples, Zack Greinke got six years and $206.5MM from the Diamondbacks before 2016, when he was set to turn 32. The Cubs gave Yu Darvish $126MM over six years going into 2018, in which he also turned 32.
The Greinke and Darvish deals haven’t worked out swimmingly for the clubs that distributed them, as the D-backs traded a still-highly effective Greinke to the Astros a month and a half ago because they wanted his money off the books. Darvish, meanwhile, has done solid work this season (he struck out 14 in his most recent start Thursday), but 2018 wasn’t a banner year. Overall, he probably hasn’t given the Cubs the type of production they envisioned upon signing him. Those are just a couple cautionary tales that could scare teams away from giving a massive amount of money to an aging Strasburg.
For Strasburg, the recent difficulties accomplished 30-plus starters Jake Arrieta and Dallas Keuchel – both with Cy Youngs on their mantles – have encountered in free agency could scare him away from opting out. Arrieta did land a three-year, $75MM guarantee from the Phillies entering 2018, but that was far less than he sought when he hit the market. Keuchel made out way worse last offseason, sitting without a job until he accepted a one-year, $13MM offer from the Braves this past June.
Of course, it’s quite possible Strasburg could exit his contract and stay with the Nationals. Longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw ended last offseason with an opt-out on the two years and $65MM remaining on his pact, but the two sides quickly struck a new agreement for three years and $93MM. Perhaps the Nationals and Strasburg will come together on a similar arrangement that tacks on another year(s) and more money. In the meantime, they and Strasburg will try to win their first World Series (or at least their first playoff series) in the next couple months. After that, his opt-out choice will be a fascinating story to follow. As of now, how do you expect things to play out?
(Poll link for app users)
What do you think Stephen Strasburg will do?
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He'll keep his current deal 52% (2,567)
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He'll opt out 48% (2,386)
Total votes: 4,953
The Rangers Need A Catcher
Set to miss the playoffs for the third straight year, the Rangers reportedly plan to make third base a priority in the offseason. Understandably so, as the position has been a sore spot for the club this year. But the problems the Rangers have faced at the hot corner pale in comparison to the issues they’ve dealt with at catcher, which should absolutely be a spot the club tries to improve over the winter.
Texas made a couple notable changes behind the plate last offseason, jettisoning starter Robinson Chirinos by declining his option and replacing him with free-agent addition Jeff Mathis. It was something of an eye-opener when the Rangers waved goodbye to Chirinos, who had been a strong offensive option for the majority of his tenure with the team, which began in 2013. Chirinos was a questionable defender throughout that period, but even still, his $4.5MM option looked eminently reasonable. The 35-year-old has since moved on to rival Houston, where he has continued his trend of hitting well while providing iffy defense.
Mathis, 36, is essentially Chirinos’ polar opposite. He’s a well-regarded defender who has never really posted big league-caliber work as a hitter. The Rangers guaranteed Mathis $6.25MM, including $3MM in 2020, but they couldn’t have imagined he’d be as close to as woeful at the plate as he has been this season. Mathis entered the year with a career batting line of .207/.274/.297 – good for a wRC+ of 49. Just a reminder that a wRC+ of 100 makes you a league-average offensive player, so Mathis was basically half of that coming into 2019. That’s obviously not good, but it’s far and away superior to the output Mathis has offered in his first season as a Ranger.
Through 244 trips to the plate in 2019, Mathis has batted .158/.209/.224. His wRC+ is 2 (!), which easily ranks last among all major leaguers who have accrued 200 or more plate appearances this season. Likewise, with minus-2.0 fWAR, Mathis sits last in that category. He’s still a decent defender, but when you’re dragging down your team’s offense as much as he has, does it really matter?
As mentioned, the Rangers are stuck paying Mathis a few million dollars next season. But if they’re going to make a real effort to contend then, they better focus on trying to better their situation behind the plate. One problem for the Rangers is that they don’t have an obvious in-house solution behind Mathis. The light-hitting Isiah Kiner-Falefa is all but done as a catcher, Jose Trevino hasn’t been any kind of offensive standout to this point, and prospect Sam Huff – although promising – hasn’t even played above the High-A level thus far. With that in mind, the Rangers will likely have to look outside the organization for a 2020 upgrade over the winter, whether via trade or the open market.
Chirinos will be a free agent again after the season, but it seems unlikely the Rangers will go back down that road one year after booting him from the organization. He’s one of just a few soon-to-be free-agent catchers who offers much at the plate, though. Current Brewer Yasmani Grandal is hands down the game’s cream-of-the-crop pending free agent at backstop, but he’ll command a significant payday, and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported this week the Rangers will be hard-pressed to dole out more than one large deal over the winter. It seems that pact will go to either a starting pitcher or a third baseman, which could rule out an earnest pursuit of Grandal.
Fortunately for Texas, the club won’t need to break the bank to pick up a catcher who can outdo the meager contributions Mathis has brought to the table this year. Other free agents-to-be such as Jason Castro (Twins) and Travis d’Arnaud (Rays) are among many catchers who have crushed Mathis’ 2019 production, and either could end up on the Rangers’ radar during the offseason. Regardless, it’s clear the position should be one the Rangers dedicate quite a bit of attention to in the coming months.
Digging Into The Cubs’ Looming Decision On David Phelps
When David Phelps signed with the Blue Jays this past offseason, his $2.5MM contract contained a club option for the 2020 season initially that was valued at $1MM — a likely reflection of the fact that his performance and general health were question marks coming off Tommy John surgery. Unsurprisingly, the contract allowed for him to boost the value of that option with a solid showing in 2019.
Activated from the IL on June 17 and traded to the Cubs on July 30, Phelps has been terrific for both teams, working to a combined 3.18 ERA with a 30-to-12 K/BB ratio in 28 1/3 innings (33 appearances). When he took the mound for the 30th time in 2019, he boosted the value of his 2020 option from that initial $1MM baseline to $3MM. He’s also already earned $500K of incentives and will earn another $250K when he makes his 35th appearance. If Phelps takes the ball seven more times before the end of the regular season, he’ll again boost the value of his option, this time to $5MM, and secure another $350K bonus.
The level at which his 2020 option settles is of particular intrigue because that will also determine the amount of incentives available to him next year. Phelps’ contract came with three different possible tiers of incentives, each of which was based on the option’s ultimate value. MLBTR has learned some of the specifics surrounding those incentive packages. If his option is valued at $3MM (i.e. he appears in 39 or fewer total games), Phelps would be able to earn an additional $2.75MM in appearance-based bonuses: $250K for reaching 25, 30 and 35 games as well as $400K for reaching 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 games.
Were he to reach that 40-appearance threshold in 2019 and boost the value of the option to $5MM, he’d be able to earn an additional $1.5MM in appearance-based bonuses: $150K for reaching 25, 30 and 35 games as well as $210K for reaching 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 games. Both tiers contain added incentives for games finished, but the Cubs’ signing of Craig Kimbrel doesn’t bode well for Phelps’ chances of an extended run as the team’s closer.
All of those factors will be weighed by the Cubs when they determine whether to bring Phelps back for the 2020 season, as will the fact that they stand to see a large chunk of their ‘pen depart via free agency. Brandon Kintzler, Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, Derek Holland, Xavier Cedeno, Tony Barnette and Brandon Morrow (who didn’t throw a pitch in 2019) are all off the books at season’s end.
From a pure performance standpoint, Phelps has improved as the season has worn on. His fastball averaged 92.1 mph with the Jays but is up to 92.8 mph with the Cubs. That’s still less than the 94.4 mph he averaged prior to Tommy John surgery, but the life on that heater does seem to be coming back. Phelps also managed just a 5.4 percent swinging-strike rate in Toronto but has seen that rate leap to 11.1 percent in Chicago — a rate that would represent a career-high. He’s also benefited from a sky-high 98.6 percent strand rate with the Cubs, though, which no pitcher can be expected sustain over a larger body of work. Phelps has held righties in check nicely (.232/.311/.377) but struggled against opposing lefties (.263/.349/.553).
Phelps’ usage over the regular season’s final couple of weeks will be worth monitoring, as it may ultimately play a large role in determining whether he’s back with the team in 2020 or searching for a new deal in free agency this winter. Neither the $3MM or $5MM price point is any sort of back-breaker, particularly with a fair bit of money coming off the books. But the Cubs also likely want to maintain as much flexibility as they can, and tacking on an extra $2MM to Phelps’ option is probably something they’d like to avoid, if possible, unless they’re planning to decline the option either way. There’s no buyout on the option, so this’ll be a straight $3MM or $5MM decision, depending on how many more times Phelps takes the ball prior to Sept. 29.
Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: AL West
It has only been a little over five weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already half of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.
So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central, NL Central, AL East, and NL East. Now we’ll head out west, starting with the American League …
Astros
The runaway division leaders were already setting up for the postseason at this summer’s trade deadline. As has now become customary, GM Jeff Luhnow pulled a rabbit out of his hat. He came through this year with the summer’s biggest blockbuster.
The Astros’ acquisition of veteran righty Zack Greinke seemingly came out of nowhere, breaking at the last possible moment. But how does it look at this early stage? The 35-year-old Greinke hasn’t been quite as good as he had been in Arizona, but he’s certainly getting the job done as hoped. Through seven starts, he carries a 3.32 ERA. On the prospect side, we haven’t learned much that we didn’t know already. Corbin Martin is still early in his Tommy John recovery, while J.B. Bukauskas only made two starts after the swap. Seth Beer did struggle upon moving to the Snakes’ Double-A affiliate, slashing .205/.297/.318 in 101 plate appearances, though that only puts a bit of a damper on a promising overall campaign. Infielder Josh Rojas, the least-hyped player involved, went on an unreal tear at Triple-A to earn a call-up. He’s holding his own (.250/.337/.382) through 86 MLB plate appearances.
That one will take longer to assess, particularly with regard to what was lost for the Houston org. That’s also true of the team’s other big deal, though in that case the initial results have been a dud for all involved. The Astros were clearly positioned to utilize outfielder Derek Fisher as a trade asset with little need for him, so turned him into a buy-low opportunity on Aaron Sanchez, who came over with reliever Joe Biagini from the Blue Jays. Fisher has not been hitting in Toronto, but the ‘Stros have also not gotten anything close to what they might’ve hoped from their side of this bargain. Sanchez tantalized with a gem of an outing but couldn’t sustain it and ended up requiring shoulder surgery (the full details of which remain unclear). Biagini has not thrived after making changes to his repertoire, having now allowed a dozen earned runs and six long balls with a miserable 9:7 K/BB ratio over 13 2/3 innings.
The other MLB piece added has worked out quite nicely. The Astros brought back veteran backstop Martin Maldonado for another run. Acquired for his defense, he has also provided a whopping .246/.319/.585 hitting output over 72 plate appearances. It has been quite the opposite experience for the Cubs, who added utilityman Tony Kemp in the deal. Kemp has just nine base knocks (two for extras) in his 64 trips to the plate with Chicago.
Houston’s other deals were of the roster-clearing variety. The club sent out backstop Max Stassi to make way for Maldonado. Stassi has managed just three hits in 49 trips to the plate with the Angels; it’s still anyone’s guess whether the Astros have anything in the very young outfielders (Rainier Rivas and Raider Uceta) acquired in the deal. Neither do the ‘Stros miss Tyler White, who struggled with the Dodgers before getting hurt after being sent there following a DFA. The young reliever added in that deal, Andre Scrubb, continued to show much the same results as before the swap. He ended his season with 64 2/3 Double-A innings of 2.78 ERA pitching with 10.6 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.
Athletics
To the surprise of nobody, the A’s went for arms over the summer. While the club was rightly pleased with its overall position-player mix, there was an obvious dearth of talent in the staff — the rotation, in particular.
First came Homer Bailey, who held particular appeal since he’d cost only the league-minimum salary. (The Dodgers owe the rest of the tab on Bailey’s extension.) The 33-year-old has eaten innings as advertised, with a 4.98 ERA and 50:11 K/BB ratio over 56 frames. Oakland can’t really have hoped for much more. Infielder Kevin Merrell had been struggling when he was sent to K.C. in the deal and continued to do so after, slashing just .235/.278/.313 in 176 Double-A plate appearances.
The A’s have had much better results from the other starter they picked up, Tanner Roark, who was added in exchange for outfield prospect Jameson Hannah. While his peripherals look much like those of Bailey, Roark has held opposing teams to 3.40 earned runs per nine in his 42 1/3 frames over seven starts. Hannah — like Merrell, one of the team’s loftier recent draft choices — trended down after changing uniforms. He slashed just .224/.325/.299 in 78 trips to the plate at the High-A level.
Oakland swung one other deal with the Royals, giving up prospects Ismael Aquino and Dairon Blanco in exchange for southpaw Jake Diekman. The veteran reliever hasn’t generated the hoped-for results, compiling just 11 strikeouts while issuing nine walks over 14 1/3 innings. Blanco has scuffled mightily since the deal, while Aquino remains a total wild card.
You might’ve liked to see a bit more talent come in to the Oakland org, which surely could have stood to add more and/or better pitching pieces. But it’s hard to fault a somewhat conservative course when only a Wild Card was realistically in play.
Rangers
It remains to be seen whether the Texas organization will regret the decision not to move Mike Minor and/or Lance Lynn. Both still look like very nice values now and in the near future. For a team with hopes of a reasonably competitive reset, it was understandable that they held onto these free-agent hits. An offseason deal could yet also be considered. But it’ll be tempting to Monday-morning QB the decision if one or both falter.
The Rangers still look to have added some nice pieces in the deadline moves they did make. Veteran reliever Chris Martin brought back southpaw Kolby Allard, while high-powered but command-challenged reliever Peter Fairbanks netted utilityman Nick Solak. It was easy to part with an older bullpen piece, though Fairbanks has shown well and could still make the club pay. Still, it’s hard not to like what the Rangers have seen from their two new pieces. The 22-year-old Allard may not have an exceptional ceiling, but he has managed to carry a 3.78 ERA through six MLB starts. And Solak has a ridiculous .347/.460/.556 slash through his first 87 trips to the dish at the game’s highest level.
We’ll have to wait to see whether the team gets anything out of veteran reliever Nate Jones (if it exercises an option over him), but taking on his salary via trade allowed the Rangers to add a major international target. That deal did cost two rookie ball pitchers. Joseph Jarneski struggled quite a bit after the swap; while Ray Castro put up solid numbers, he’s already 22 years of age and is still pitching in the Dominican Summer League. The Texas organization has also received 10 1/3 solid innings from righty Ian Gibaut, who was added for a song and could be a part of the bullpen mix in 2020.
Angels
[ENTRY BLANK]
Just kidding. But … yeah, not much action for the Halos, was there? The aforementioned Stassi was added on the heels of even smaller acquisitions of along with Josh Thole (link) and Adam McCreery (link). These moves haven’t really cost much and helped the club make it through the season, but that’s about it.
To be fair, the Angels did not have a ton of obvious trade pieces to work with. Kole Calhoun would’ve held appeal, and perhaps in retrospect should have been dealt, but it’s not clear he’d have brought back enough of a return to justify sacrificing what was then an outside chance at a Wild Card run.
Mariners
There’s always some action when GM Jerry Dipoto is involved. But there could have been more. Dee Gordon was and is a candidate to be moved, as the M’s have no qualms about eating salary when necessary. Mitch Haniger might have been an interesting candidate for a big swap but for an injury. Domingo Santana was also not a factor for similar reasons.
The club did end up making several moves that brought in a volume of prospects. Cashing in veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion in June netted pitching prospect Juan Then, who got his start in the Seattle system. The 19-year-old worked to a 2.98 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 48 1/3 total minor-league frames after the swap, topping out at the Class A level.
In a pair of deals, the Mariners sent relievers Hunter Strickland (link) and Roenis Elias (link) to the Nationals for a series of prospects. Elvis Alvarado had been walking more than a batter per inning before the move but recorded a 13:3 K/BB ratio in a dozen rookie frames thereafter. And Taylor Guilbeau showed enough to get a late call-up. He owns a 4.50 ERA in eight innings over 11 appearances. More importantly, he’s showing well against left-handed hitters … though righties have had no trouble. The third hurler added from the D.C. organization is Aaron Fletcher, a recent 14th-round pick who could soon be on the MLB relief radar. He ran up the Nats ladder with good numbers and ended the season with a 13-inning Double-A run with the Seattle organization, over which he compiled a 3.46 ERA with a 15:3 K/BB ratio.
After a long time trying, the Mariners also found a home for veteran righty Mike Leake, whose no-trade rights complicated matters. Seattle was only able to offload $6MM of salary while picking up infielder Jose Caballero. The M’s gave him a look at the High-A level, where he slashed just .256/.339/.333 over 109 plate appearances. The only other Seattle swap was a minor one. Shipping Kris Negron to the Dodgers netted a younger utilityman in Daniel Castro. He continued to struggle at the plate at Triple-A after the deal.
The Least Valuable Sluggers Of 2019
With a couple weeks left in the regular season, 108 players have already hit at least 20 home runs, and several more figure to join the group before the year’s out. We all know it’s a homer-happy game these days, but even if you’re capable of launching the ball over the fence on a consistent basis, that doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a valuable player. Seventeen of the sport’s 20-HR hitters have posted 1.0 fWAR or worse so far this year, setting them up to end the season as below-average players by that metric. Say what you will about fWAR, but it’s generally able to pinpoint who is and isn’t particularly useful to his team’s cause. With that said, let’s take a look at this year’s least valuable sluggers as the campaign nears its end…
Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins (HRs: 28; fWAR: 1.0)
- While Rosario has seldom been a big on-base threat since his career started in 2015, this year’s .299 OBP is the second-worst mark of his career and has helped tamp down his value. Despite a .276 average and a .491 slugging percentage, Rosario has managed a so-so 101 wRC+ to this point. Thanks to that and below-average defense (minus-4 DRS, minus-3.5 UZR), Rosario’s smack dab between average and replacement level this season.
Jay Bruce, OF, Phillies (HRs: 25; fWAR: 1.0)
- In fairness to Bruce, injuries have limited him to just 314 plate appearance this year, making his home run amount all the more impressive. Still, between Seattle and Philly, Bruce has put up another unspectacular season in a growing line of them. He’s a .227/.274/.543 hitter with a 106 wRC+, though the long-panned outfielder has accounted for 2 DRS and a 0.8 UZR in the corners.
Yasiel Puig, OF, Indians (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.8)
- The 28-year-old Puig has stumbled through one of the worst seasons of his career, which obviously isn’t what he had in mind for a platform campaign. The pending free agent and longtime Dodger has slashed a middling .255/.315/.455 over 555 trips to the plate between the Reds and Indians. Puig’s still a good outfielder (4 DRS, 0.4 UZR), but above-average offense has been his calling card for most of his time in the bigs. His decline in output at the plate this season has likely cost him a solid amount of money.
Franmil Reyes, OF, Indians (HRs: 34; fWAR: 0.8)
- The 24-year-old Reyes joined the Indians last month in the same trade as Puig, but the results haven’t been stellar in either case. Although Reyes has a shot at 40 homers, his .250/.313/.516 line (109 wRC+) isn’t great, especially for a DH. Reyes still has another two years left before he hits arbitration, though, so it’s doubtful the Indians will grow tired of him in the immediate future.
Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox (HRs: 25; fWAR: 0.8)
- Jimenez hasn’t made the type of star-caliber impact the White Sox may have wanted immediately from the hyped 22-year-old, but most players his age are still in the minors. A league-average batting line (101 wRC+; .249/.297/.473 in 437 PA) with 25 dingers isn’t anything to scoff at for a rookie. But it’s up in the air whether Jimenez will evolve into a viable outfielder. He has accounted for minus-11 DRS with a minus-4.6 UZR thus far.
Ryan McMahon, INF, Rockies (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.7)
- As with Jimenez, the fact that McMahon’s not off to a dazzling start doesn’t mean he won’t morph into an indispensable long-term piece for Colorado. The 24-year-old McMahon has fared respectably at three positions, mostly second base, while slashing .258/.338/.455 (91 wRC+) in his first full season in the league.
Renato Nunez, DH/1B, Orioles (HRs: 29; fWAR: 0.7)
- Let’s say this for Nunez: He’s much more successful than the vast majority of waiver pickups. Nunez has at least turned into a passable hitter since the Orioles claimed him off the scrapheap from the Rangers in May 2018. However, for a DH, more is needed than the .251/.314/.471 showing (102 wRC+) that Nunez has given the rebuilding Orioles in 547 plate appearances this season. The O’s are in the process of trying to find long-term building blocks, and the 25-year-old Nunez hasn’t really established himself as one yet, homers aside.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Blue Jays (HRs: 21; fWAR: 0.5)
- Hernandez’s aggregate production has been far from excellent this season, but the 26-year-old has trended upward since a horrid stretch from April through June. Overall, Hernandez – who’s trying to prove to the Blue Jays he’s a long-term cog – has batted .215/.292/.436 with an 89 wRC+ and subpar defense (minus-5 DRS, minus-3.5 UZR). Offensively, if the powerful Hernandez is ever going to be a significant asset, he’ll have to slash his strikeouts. He has fanned in 33-plus percent of PA this season, continuing a K-happy career that began in 2016.
C.J. Cron, 1B, Twins (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.4)
- The Rays non-tendered Cron last offseason after a 30-homer campaign, and early this year, he looked like one of the best buy-low pickups of the winter. Cron stormed out of the gates after joining the Twins for $4.8MM, but he has slowed down considerably since then. Cron has only batted .254/.315/.478 (104 wRC+) in 470 PA, which could again make him a non-tender candidate during the upcoming winter as he gears up for his final trip through arbitration.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays (HRs: 25; fWAR: 0.3)
- The five-year, $52MM extension the Blue Jays handed Grichuk before the season isn’t looking like a particularly shrewd investment at the moment. Never known for getting on base, the .281 OBP the 25-year-old has put up thus far is the lowest he has ever recorded over a full season. In all, Grichuk’s just a .230/.281/.437 hitter, giving him a woeful 85 wRC+. It hasn’t been a case of bad luck, according to Statcast, which credits Grichuk with a .296 expected weighted on-base average that falls shy of his real wOBA (.305).
Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.3)
- With three Jays on this list, maybe it’s no surprise the rebuilding club’s among the majors’ worst teams. Unlike Grichuk, though, Smoak is something of a Statcast darling. The soon-to-be free agent’s .212/.349/.406 line and 104 wRC+ through 464 PA aren’t anything special for a first baseman, but his .372 xwOBA (compared to a .332 wOBA) is one of the highest in the sport.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.2)
- The Padres’ decision to hand Hosmer an eight-year, $144MM guarantee before the 2018 season continues to look rather questionable. The former Royal logged weak production a year ago, and though Hosmer has improved this season, the results aren’t nearly good enough for the money he’s making or the offense-driven position he plays. The grounder-hitting Hosmer’s .280/.327/.443 line in 603 PA has amounted to a 95 wRC+. He has given the Padres 0.0 fWAR over 1,280 PA since signing his franchise-record contract.
Domingo Santana, OF, Mariners (HRs: 21; fWAR: 0.2)
- Santana’s offensive output has tanked in the second half, though ongoing elbow problems have surely contributed to his late-season decline. The Mariners will hope Santana will look more like the player who registered a 127 wRC+ in the first half of 2019, not the one who has limped to a dismal 36 wRC+ since, when next season rolls around. Regardless, Santana’s defense may continue to be a major concern. With minus-15 DRS and a minus-16.0 UZR, he has been one of the worst outfielders in the game this year.
Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.1)
- Although this is the third season with at least 20 homers for the 25-year-old Odor, the Rangers are understandably growing frustrated with his inconsistency. Odor has alternated between valuable and valueless since he came on the scene in 2014. Unfortunately for Texas, Odor has been closer to the latter this season. He has gone down on strikes a personal-worst 30.4 percent of the time en route to an ugly line of .203/.283/.421 (73 wRC+) in 517 trips to the plate.
Matt Adams, 1B, Nationals (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.0)
- The 31-year-old Adams has only managed a .226/.277/.476 line with a wRC+ of 86, thanks in part to a career-high strikeout percentage (34.3). The lefty-hitting Adams has continued to struggle against same-handed pitchers in the process, making it look all the more likely the Nationals will buy him out for $1MM in lieu of exercising a $4MM option after the season.
Albert Pujols, 1B/DH, Angels (HRs: 22; fWAR: minus-0.1)
- Pujols hit the 655th homer of his career Monday, leaving him just five shy of tying the legendary Willie Mays for fifth on the all-time list. Needless to say, the 39-year-old Pujols is one of the greatest players who has ever lived. That said, his years-long decline has continued in 2019 – the eighth season of a 10-year, $240MM contract that hasn’t gone to the Angels’ liking. Pujols, with his .251/.311/.448 line and inability to contribute as a defender or base runner, is on track for a second straight season of below-replacement-level production.
Khris Davis, DH, Athletics (HRs: 20; fWAR: minus-1.1)
- This has been a disastrous season for the man known as Khrush, whom the low-budget Athletics awarded a two-year, $33.5MM extension before the campaign. Davis was coming off his third straight season of 40-plus home runs (and fourth consecutive campaign with a .247 average) at that point. But injuries have helped limit Davis to a horrid .220/.287/.383 line with a 78 wRC+ through 474 PA in 2019. That’s obviously not going to cut it for someone whose bat determines whether he’s valuable.
Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: NL East
It has only been a little over five weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already half of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.
So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central, NL Central, and AL East; now we’ll go to the National League East …
Braves
There was an argument for the Braves to consider rotation and even outfield improvements at the trade deadline, but the club ultimately focused on the bullpen after the mid-June signing of Dallas Keuchel. Otherwise, the club swung just one other deal, a minor swap of cash for catching depth in the form of John Ryan Murphy.
So, what about those relievers? The club picked up Chris Martin (link), Shane Greene (link), and Mark Melancon (link). That seemed like a sturdy trio, but each got off to an exceptionally rocky start. Thankfully, things have stabilized. Martin sports a 15:1 K/BB rate in Atlanta; Melancon sits at 20:2 and hasn’t yet blown a save in nine chances (though it may not seem that way). Greene gave up a pair of runs in his last outing, but that broke a 13-appearance scoreless streak.
On the other side of the coin, the price paid never figured to hurt the Braves too badly, as they largely parted with upper-level pieces that were stacked behind other prospects. If there’s one that could hurt, it may be Joey Wentz, who posted a 37:4 K/BB ratio while allowing just six earned runs in 25 2/3 innings with the Tigers’ Double-A affiliate after coming over in the Greene trade. Utilityman Travis Demeritte, who went with him, has struggled in brief MLB action. The Martin swap cost another young left, Kolby Allard, who has put a shine on a solid overall campaign by running a 3.78 ERA over six big league starts. He’s succeeding largely by limiting the long ball, which may not be fully sustainable, but his stuff has trended up noticeably since his brief debut last year with Atlanta. Tristan Beck, the key piece in the Melancon swap, has generated good results at the High-A level since the deal.
So, what about the possible needs in other areas? The starting staff has continued to be an internal operation (including Keuchel). While it’s not exactly an ace-laden outfit, the Braves do have plenty of depth and will likely plan to stack pitching in the postseason rather than hoping for lengthy starts. Position-player depth has been an issue, but the club has managed to find solutions by being one of the most aggressive accumulators of players in September. Minor-league signings and claims brought the team Adeiny Hechavarria, Billy Hamilton, and Francisco Cervelli. While it’s certainly arguable the Braves could or should have made at least one more significant addition, the overall approach of supplementing the existing roster has certainly not prevented the team from performing at an impressive level of late.
Nationals
The D.C. organization pursued something like a Braves-lite strategy, landing its own trio of relief arms but doing so at another tier lower than did the division leaders. Southpaw Roenis Elias (link) and righties Daniel Hudson (link) and Hunter Strickland (link) all arrived on deadline day to buttress a bullpen that has been a source of turnover and turmoil all season long.
Elias was arguably the biggest piece of the three, but has contributed the least due to injury. It’s an unlucky break, though the Nats still can salvage value from the deal by tendering him a contract for the next two seasons to come. The two right-handers have become important pieces in the late-inning mix of the rightly maligned Washington relief corps. Hudson owns a 2.40 ERA in 15 frames, with 9.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9; Strickland is sitting at a 4.40 ERA over 14 1/3 innings, with 6.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. They’ve each allowed three home runs.
Securing the services of Elias meant sending Elvis Alvarado and Taylor Guilbeau to Seattle. The control problems of the former disappeared in a dozen-inning rookie ball stint after the trade, so perhaps the Seattle staff helped him figure something out. Gilbeau, 26, has earned his first time in the majors. In eight innings, the southpaw has been tough on lefties (.176/.263/.294) while being knocked around a bit by righties (.267/.353/.467). Another young lefty went to Seattle in the Strickland deal. Aaron Fletcher has thrown 13 innings of 3.46 ERA ball with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 13 Double-A innings. Adding Hudson cost 23-year-old Kyle Johnston, whose solid High-A numbers have tanked since the swap. He carries a brutal 13:20 K/BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings with the new organization.
Add it all up, and the Nats can’t be terribly displeased … but also haven’t been overwhelmingly boosted by their mid-season additions. Indications are that the club was working under tight payroll constraints this summer, so that’s to be expected. Fortunately, infielder Asdrubal Cabrera came cheap. He has been aflame since being signed as a September free agent. The club is still in very good position for the Wild Card, but has to wonder how far it will be able to advance with such an unreliable relief unit.
Phillies
After adding Jay Bruce earlier in the summer, the Phillies probably wanted to improve their pitching. But they didn’t end up matching their rivals in that regard — not even close, in fact.
Outfielder Corey Dickerson was the team’s biggest addition in the run-up to the deadline, in fact. The primary cost was his remaining salary, with the club also agreeing to send the cross-state Pirates some international bonus capacity and a PTBNL. Dickerson may not even have been added had it not been for Bruce’s health issues. It has turned out to be wise move, as Dickerson carries a .300/.313/.592 batting line through 134 plate appearances.
Taking on money was also a driver in the Jason Vargas deal. The veteran southpaw has taken the ball eight times for the Phillies, managing a 5.01 ERA over 41 1/3 innings with a 1.63 K/BB ratio. That’s a downgrade from the results he posted with the Mets before the trade — 4.01 ERA with 2.08 K/BB ratio — though he’s much the same pitcher by most measures.
Those moves have certainly helped the Phils hang in the Wild Card race, though the club could obviously have stood to make greater improvements. Minor deals for Mike Morin, Jose Pirela, and Dan Straily haven’t delivered a ton of benefit. Morin has seen 21 innings of action but owns a 5.14 ERA. Pirela has seen limited action in the majors, while Straily hasn’t been asked onto the 40-man roster.
Much like their competitors in the division, the Phils have made several additions by signing released players or placing post-deadline claims. Those methods have brought in Drew Smyly, Blake Parker, Nick Vincent, Logan Morrison, and Jared Hughes to help keep things afloat. While more significant reinforcements surely would’ve been preferred, the organization just wasn’t willing to pay what it would have cost.
Mets
The most surprising deadline approach came from New York, with the Mets deciding to chase dwindling postseason aspirations. While the organization was rewarded with an inspired run of play, it still seems likely the club will fall short of its goal.
It seemed as the deadline drew nigh that the Mets would function as sellers. Zack Wheeler was an obvious trade piece, with a variety of other veterans also possibilities to move. Instead, the club pursued a stunning swap for local product Marcus Stroman while sending Vargas to the Phils to help offset the cash.
Parting with Vargas hasn’t hurt, though it was curious to see him go to a division rival. Trouble is, Stroman hasn’t been any better. He’s carrying a 5.05 ERA in 35 2/3 frames. While he’s surely a better bet going forward than the aging lefty, Stroman will need to rein in the number of balls leaving the yard (1.8 per nine since the deal). Adding Stroman meant that the Mets ponied up another chunk of young talent from a farm that had already parted with key pieces. Most analysts felt the cost — Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson — was rather reasonable, though both hurlers have trended up since joining their new organization.
The real head-scratcher in all of this was that the Mets stopped with only the addition of Stroman. He was and is a piece with 2020 value as well, of course, but the club left its bullpen entirely unimproved. The club did go on to add Brad Brach as well as second bagger Joe Panik when they came available in September. Brodie Van Wagenen’s first trade deadline will be an interesting one to revisit down the line.
Marlins
It was a low-key fascinating trade period for the Fish. Not because they made sell-side moves — that was obvious — but because they ended up shipping out young talent.
It all got started innocently enough, as rental reliever Sergio Romo was sent to the Twins in a deal that netted first baseman Lewin Diaz. The youngster’s batting average and OBP dove with his new club, but he is still showing good power at Double-A. Unfortunately, the deal also cost the Fish 22-year-old righty Chris Vallimont. He had put up solid numbers all season long and finished with a bang, posting a 28:4 K/BB ratio and 3.63 ERA over 22 1/3 High-A innings.
It might have been supposed that the Marlins would try to spin off a few other veterans, with Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson among the short-term players that could hypothetically have been moved. Instead, the Miami club turned to cashing in controllable MLB pitching for buy-low position-player prospects.
First came an intriguing intra-state deal. The Marlins parted with righties Nick Anderson and Trevor Richards in order to pick up young outfielder Jesus Sanchez and reliever Ryne Stanek. With Anderson dominating and Richards performing quite well, there could be some second-guessing here. Then again, Sanchez is a well-regarded young player. He slashed .246/.338/.446 in 78 plate appearances at Triple-A after the swap. That’s hardly a big showing in this year’s hot offensive environment, but it was an improvement over his work in the Rays organization and he’s still just 21 years of age.
At least as surprising was the deal that saw rookie righty Zac Gallen head to the D-Backs in exchange for Jazz Chisholm. Entering the season, this swap would’ve seemed ridiculous. But the two players involved headed in quite different directions. By the time the deal was struck, the former was in the midst of a breakout season, with the age and cheap control needed to serve as a part of a new core. But the Marlins elected to cash in his breakout to take a shot at the long-lauded Chisholm, who had shown big strikeout numbers at Double-A (33.8%). Gallen has continued to excel in Arizona, raising the stakes for Chisholm. But the 21-year-old shortstop did trend up after the move, paring back the Ks and slashing .284/.383/.494 (156 wRC+) in 94 plate appearances with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate.
It’s impossible to say how this slate of transactions will look in the long run, but it’ll be fun to track these intriguing deals from the rebuilding Marlins.
Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: AL East
It has only been a little over five weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already half of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.
So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central and NL Central; now we’ll go to the American League East …
Yankees
The Yankees did their shopping ahead of time, as it turned out. They first picked up Cameron Maybin (link) and Kendrys Morales (link) early in the season. Maybin’s stunning productivity has obviously been a boon for the Yanks, who’ve weathered countless injuries with a slew of surprise performances.
Over the summer, the New York club ultimately replaced Morales with Edwin Encarnacion in a mid-June swap and went on to pick up pinch runner extraordinaire Terrance Gore in a minor move. The Encarnacion deal gave the Yankees another fearsome slugger on a roster chock full of them. He has missed some time and hasn’t been at his absolute best, but still carries a strong .246/.320/.514 slash in 194 plate appearances with the club. Young pitching prospect Juan Then has had a nice showing since moving to the Seattle organization in the EE deal, reaching the Class A level and throwing a combined 48 1/3 innings of 2.98 ERA ball with 48 strikeouts and 13 walks.
That all seemed to be prelude to a bigger deadline strike. Surely, the thinking went, the Yanks would be ready to do whatever it’d take to fully load their roster in an attempt to win the World Series for the first time since 2009. Pitching, particularly of the starting variety, was obviously in need. As it turned out, the Yankees held pat on deadline day. While they nearly landed a big relief arm in Ken Giles, they ultimately decided to roll the dice on internal options.
So, are there any regrets? The Yanks are cruising in the division, so in that sense it’s hard to argue with the way the line was drawn. But the club doesn’t feature an imposing postseason rotation. It may be supposed that the team will try to make up for the lack of high-end starters with a fearsome relief mix, but that’s still somewhat dependent upon the recovery of injured hurlers Luis Severino and Dellin Betances. The uncertainties were well-known in the run-up to the trade deadline, so the Yankees are sleeping in the bed they made. There’s immense talent on the roster, but it’ll be interesting to see if the quiet deadline ultimately haunts the club.
Rays
There weren’t any headline-making moves, but that doesn’t mean the Rays weren’t busy at the deadline. The organization’s mid-season acquisitions didn’t jump-start a run at the Yanks, but have subtly altered their array of talent and helped the club stay out in front of the AL Wild Card race.
Parting with Nick Solak helped clear the deck on the position-player side while bringing in interesting righty Peter Fairbanks. Both have turned in impressive initial showings at the MLB level — 78 plate appearances of .949 OPS hitting and 5 1/3 innings of pitching with just one earned run — and could play significant roles on their respective new clubs in 2020.
The Rays then sent out Hunter Wood and Christian Arroyo for faraway outfielder Ruben Cardenas and $250K of international signing capacity. This seemed primarily to be a roster-clearing move, but it cost the team a cost-efficient reliever who has turned in solid results on both sides of the swap. That’s also what happened with lefty Adam Kolarek, who has made 17 scoreless appearances since being traded to the Dodgers. Outfielder Niko Hulsizer, acquired in return, remains a long-term project. In another roster-management deal, outfielder Joe McCarthy went to the Giants for youthful pitching prospect Jacob Lopez. The former has struggled at Triple-A; the latter has been successful in limited action both before and after the deal, but hasn’t yet moved past the low-A level.
Having parted with Solak and Arroyo, the Rays turned around and added a veteran in the same essential utility mold. Eric Sogard has hit well since coming down to Florida, turning in a .284/.348/.431 slash in 112 plate appearances. Indeed, he’s out-slashing fellow acquisition Jesus Aguilar, who’s hitting competently but hasn’t returned to his slugging ways since coming from the Brewers. That deal, too, saw a big-league-capable hurler leave the Tampa Bay org, though Jake Faria hasn’t yet distinguished himself in Milwaukee.
That was all prelude to the team’s biggest swap. Solid reliever/opener Ryne Stanek was packaged with quality outfield prospect Jesus Sanchez in exchange for righties Nick Anderson and Trevor Richards. The long-term key to this deal is Sanchez, who hasn’t yet turned on the jets but is seen by some as a future regular. Despite his relatively high-profile role in Tampa Bay, nobody has missed Stanek, who has struggled since moving south. Any thought of what has departed has been overwhelmed by what the Rays have gotten back. Richards has been excellent in a Raysian swingman sort of role, throwing 19 1/3 innings of 2.33 ERA ball. And Anderson? He has quietly racked up two strikeouts for every one of his 15 innings pitched with nary a free pass. Anderson is already 29 years of age, but his remaining control rights — he won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2022 — look to be quite valuable.
Red Sox
Not unlike their bitter New England rivals, the Red Sox acted early and then went quiet. But the situations weren’t the same: there was greater need in Boston, but also less cause to press the issue given the team’s perilous place in the standings.
It had been hoped that acquiring veteran Andrew Cashner would represent a low-cost means of shoring up a leaky Red Sox pitching staff. He was intended to start, with Nathan Eovaldi heading to the bullpen. As it turns out, both have pitched poorly while spending time in both starting and relief roles.
There’s no question that adding to the bullpen would’ve boosted the chances for the Red Sox. It’s tempting to believe that a bold strike might even have jolted a turnaround. But the Boston organization had largely played its cards in the offseason. Ultimately, a roster weary from the prior season’s World Series run just wasn’t up to the task. It’d be hard to say a different deadline approach would likely have changed the outcome.
Blue Jays
It was always clear how this deadline would go for the Blue Jays, who’ve almost fully turned over their roster over the past few years and are now looking to build around premium young talent. It remains a bit surprising that the club couldn’t find a home for Justin Smoak and Freddy Galvis — the latter ultimately departed via waiver claim — but the Jays did swing several sell-side deals.
First came the surprising Marcus Stroman swap. It was all but inevitable he’d be moved, but the destination came as a surprise. Some observers were underwhelmed by the return, but the Toronto organization seemed excited to add pitching prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson. So far, so good. Kay turned in seven quality outings at Triple-A and recently made his MLB debut, with eight strikeouts against three walks and two earned runs on the board over 5 2/3 solid frames. And the 18-year-old Woods Richardson has thrived after receiving a promotion to the High-A level, compiling 28 1/3 innings of 2.54 ERA ball with 9.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.
The Jays also dealt away another once-featured hurler in Aaron Sanchez. He went with fellow righty Joe Biagini to the Astros in exchange for outfielder Derek Fisher. This has the feeling of a trade that could be a complete non-factor in the long run … or one that could turn out to be quite significant in retrospect. Sanchez showed a brief spark but is now down for the year with a shoulder injury, while Biagini has struggled badly. Fisher will get a longer look, but the former first-rounder has struggled to a .167/.277/.403 slash to this point in his Blue Jays tenure.
Two more relievers went out the door as well. David Phelps has been a big contributor for the Cubs since he was dealt. But the deal brought the Jays back a potentially useful piece in righty Tom Hatch. He finished off his season with a strong 35 1/3 inning run at Toronto’s Double-A affiliate, over which he pitched to a 2.80 ERA with an exceptional 34:2 K/BB ratio. Finally, there was the swap that sent veteran reliever Daniel Hudson to the Nationals. Unlike the other deals, this was a classic rental scenario. It’s anyone’s guess what the team will get out of 23-year-old Kyle Johnston, the hurler added in return. He took a sharp turn for the worse upon arriving in his new org, allowing 22 earned runs with a terrible 13:20 K/BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings of action, but will have a chance to go back to the drawing board in the upcoming offseason.
Orioles
It turned out to be quite the quiet deadline for the Orioles. On deadline day itself, the club simply shipped Dan Straily to the Phillies in a minor move. Before that came only the aforementioned Cashner deal, which brought in a pair of 17-year-old Venezuelans. Elio Prado and Noelberth Romero. Those recent signees continued to play in the Dominican Summer League after the trade; whether they’ll ultimately deliver value to the Baltimore organization won’t be known for quite some time.
So far as the O’s were concerned, the most notable aspects of the deadline were the moves not made. It seemed that reliever Mychal Givens would draw interest, as he was carrying strong peripherals despite an ugly ERA. No doubt the Orioles received offers, but they ultimately elected to hold him in hopes that he’d boost his value. That’s just what has happened so far: opposing hitters have mustered only seven singles and two walks against him over his past 13 appearances, during which time Givens has racked up 19 strikeouts.
Otherwise, the non-moves weren’t terribly surprising, but there are a few of note. There was never much of a build-up surrounding young outfielder Trey Mancini. It’ll be interesting to see whether that occurs this winter. He’s also an extension possibility. The O’s also elected to hang onto infielders Hanser Alberto and Jonathan Villar. Both have hit quite well since the deadline, are on track to be tendered contracts, and could be traded away at any point moving forward.
Hunter Renfroe’s Second-Half Decline
Just a couple months ago, Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe looked like a legitimate breakout player. As a result, the defensively adept slugger drew plenty of trade interest leading up to the deadline, though the Padres understandably elected against parting with him. This season has since become about looking forward for the out-of-contention Padres, who are reportedly set to count on Renfroe as one of their main outfielders again in 2020. There are clear reasons for that – including Renfroe’s 31 home runs, whopping 22 Defensive Runs Saved, and his three remaining seasons of team control – but they’ll need the 27-year-old to get off the schneid at the plate in 2020 to increase their chances of breaking a seemingly interminable playoff drought.
Although his HR total is prodigious, Renfroe has only been a middling offensive performer this year, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. His .222/.290/.498 line in 462 trips to the plate has led to an unspectacular 99 wRC+. Despite his defensive excellence, Renfroe’s so-so offense has limited him to 1.9 fWAR, essentially making him an average player. There’s value in that, especially on a cheap salary, though Renfroe looked as if he was destined for better not long ago. When the All-Star break rolled around in mid-July, Renfroe had already put up 2.4 fWAR with 27 homers and a 130 wRC+ in 289 plate appearances. Since then, however, he has dipped to a dismal .169/.260/.291 line with four HRs across 173 PA. Renfroe’s minus-0.5 fWAR during the second half of the season ties him for the fourth-worst mark in the game.
If you’re wondering what caused the destruction of Renfroe’s offensive numbers, it starts with a massive downturn in power – evidenced in part by the noticeable decrease in HRs. Renfroe boasted a ridiculous .361 ISO at the break, but the number has plummeted to a nonthreatening .122 during the second half of the season. A mammoth decline in impactful contact is an obvious cause. According to FanGraphs, Renfroe posted a hard-hit rate of 52.1 percent over the first couple months of the year. The figure has fallen to 33.7 since the All-Star Game, while Renfroe has made far less contact in general and seen his strikeout rate soar from 27.3 percent to an even 37.0.
Health may be factoring into Renfroe’s late-season issues, as manager Andy Green said Tuesday (via Dennis Lin of The Athletic) that his production has “suffered because of” a sore elbow and a problematic ankle. Likewise, it hasn’t helped Renfroe’s cause that pitchers have somewhat changed their approach when he has come to the plate, having thrown more sliders against him as the season has progressed, per FanGraphs. Renfroe’s especially vulnerable when dealing with breaking pitches, according to Statcast, which credits him with a .237 weighted on-base average/.219 expected wOBA against those offerings.
By Statcast’s standards, Renfroe’s overall output has been something of a mixed bag. He ranks in the league’s 66th percentile or better in exit velocity and Statcast’s Outs Above Average defensive metric, but his other numbers aren’t as encouraging. For one, Renfroe’s expected batting average – .218 – dwells toward the bottom of the league (third percentile). And his xwOBA (.310; 27th percentile) also doesn’t offer much encouragement, suggesting he has actually been fortunate to hit for a real wOBA (.328) that’s more mediocre than spectacular.
In spite of his second-half woes, it’s evident San Diego views Renfroe as a player who could be part of the solution as it seeks a return to relevance. But if Renfroe’s really going to emerge as a high-end complement to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in 2020, the Padres will need the player who showed up during the first half of this season to reappear going forward. If healthy, perhaps he will.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Starlin Castro: Back From The Abyss
As cliched as it sounds, this truly has been a tale of two seasons for Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro. Back on July 2, I wrote a piece titled “Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season.” At that point, the four-time All-Star was in the throes of one of the worst years of anyone in baseball. He was a .230/.258/.313 hitter whose 51 wRC+ ranked last among qualified hitters and whose minus-1.2 fWAR was also at the absolute bottom of the sport. Since that date, though, Castro has rescued his season – an especially fortuitous development for someone who’s likely headed for free agency in another couple months.
This will hardly go down as a banner year for Castro, whose sorry first half has doomed him to a .270/.298/.420 line with an 87 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR through 597 plate appearances. But the 29-year-old has quietly been among the majors’ most effective position players going back to the beginning of July. Since then, Castro has batted .324/.353/.567 in 252 trips to the plate. The 138 wRC+ he has posted ties him with Mets first baseman and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso, while the 2.0 fWAR Castro has accrued puts him in company with MVP candidates Cody Bellinger and Ronald Acuna Jr., among other big-time producers.
So what’s behind Castro’s radical change in production? A massive upswing in power seems to be the obvious answer. When Castro was one of the game’s least effective hitters, he managed a pitiful .083 ISO – the game’s third-lowest figure – and just four home runs. Over the past couple months, though, Castro’s ISO has climbed to .244, and he has swatted 13 homers. As always, Castro has drawn few walks and struck out less than most players. However, a more aggressive, power-driven approach has led to a drastic turnaround. Take a look…
Castro before July:
- Groundball percentage: 52.2
- Fly ball percentage: 30.9
- Line drive percentage: 16.7
- Pull percentage: 40.8
- Infield fly percentage: 10.7
- Hard-hit percentage (per FanGraphs): 40.1
Castro since:
- Groundball percentage: 43.9
- Flyball percentage: 33.3
- Line drive percentage: 22.7
- Pull percentage: 49.5
- Infield fly percentage: 7.6
- Hard-hit percentage: 43.4
All of the above bodes well for an increase in power, making it no surprise Castro’s home run-to-fly ball rate has risen from a meager 6.0 percent to 19.7 since he began digging himself out of an enormous hole earlier in the summer. The success has come with less selectivity for Castro, whose swing rate has climbed from 47.6 percent to 51.3 in the past couple months. At the same time, Castro has made less contact and swung and missed more, but it hasn’t mattered. The rise in meaningful contact has helped beget a sizable gain in batting average on balls in play (from .262 to .346). While there may be good fortune baked into the new number, it’s closer to Castro’s career figure than his first-half mark. Dating back to his MLB debut in 2010, the former Cub and Yankee has recorded a .320 BABIP. Moreover, Castro has registered a BABIP of .330 or greater in five different seasons. With that in mind, it’s all the more clear that his in-season revival hasn’t simply been a product of luck.
Looking past this season – which will go down as yet another lost campaign for the woebegone Marlins – Castro still has another year of team control remaining. However, even though Castro has gone back to being a useful contributor as the season has gone on, the Marlins are sure to decline his $16MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Consequently, Castro will get his first taste of free agency on the heels of a quality finish to the season. That’s a major relief for a player whose contract year looked like a disaster not long ago.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.