Recently Minted Free Agents With MLB Experience
With this year’s August acquisition period drawing to a close on Saturday, contending teams need to act fast if they want to add players with postseason eligibility to their organizations. Non-contenders may have organizational depth needs to address as well, particularly those that end up parting with veterans before the end of August.
Accordingly, it seemed a worthwhile undertaking to pull together all of the most recently minted free agents with MLB experience — those that have been released in the past month or so. In addition to waiver-wire candidates — Nick Martini and any new additions to the wire that might arise — these are the presently available possibilities. Unlike players that have been waiting on the open market since earlier in the season, most of those listed here have been playing competitively against top-level competition for most or all of the season.
Without further ado:
- Cody Allen, RP
- Brad Boxberger, RP
- Jose Briceno, C
- Jhoulys Chacin, SP/RP
- P.J. Conlon, RP
- Lucas Duda, 1B
- Alcides Escobar, SS
- Marco Estrada, SP
- Scooter Gennett, 2B
- Luiz Gohara, SP/RP
- Alen Hanson, UTIL
- Josh Harrison, INF
- Chris Iannetta, C
- Dan Jennings, RP
- Jung Ho Kang, 3B
- Nate Karns, SP/RP
- Nick Kingham, SP/RP
- Adam McCreery, RP
- Shelby Miller , SP/RP
- Eduardo Nunez, INF
- Paulo Orlando, OF
- David Paulino, SP/RP
- Wily Peralta, RP
- Rob Refsnyder, UTIL
- Mark Reynolds, 1B
- Brady Rodgers, SP/RP
- Marc Rzepczynski, RP
- Tony Sipp, RP
- Ruben Tejada, INF
- Trayce Thompson, OF
- Carlos Torres, RP
- Eric Young Jr., OF
Did we miss anyone? Let us know in the comments!
Free Agent Stock Watch: Catchers
Pittsburgh is among the teams that will be looking for help behind the plate during the upcoming offseason. The problem for the Pirates and others is that there’s a pittance of slam-dunk starters who are scheduled to reach the open market. With just over a month left in the regular season, here’s a rundown of how the game’s soon-to-be free-agent backstops have performed this year…
The Gold Standard:
- Yasmani Grandal, Brewers: It was a strange offseason last winter for Grandal. Even though the Dodgers issued him a qualifying offer, he still landed a proposal in the four-year, $60MM range from the Mets. But Grandal passed, which forced him to eventually settle for the Brewers’ one-year, $18.25MM guarantee. The deal includes a $16MM mutual option for 2020, but Grandal’s sure to decline his half of it on the heels of another quality season. The switch-hitting 30-year-old has yet again paired easily above-average offense with well-regarded work behind the plate. Grandal’s .253/.380/.460 line with 20 home runs in 503 plate appearances has kept him among the game’s premier offensive catchers, while he’s near the top of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. The Brewers won’t be able to issue Grandal a qualifying offer after the season, which only makes it more likely that he’ll reel in a lucrative multiyear deal over the winter.
Regulars:
- Jason Castro, Twins: Castro’s closing out a three-year, $24MM with Minnesota, which – aside from an injury-ruined 2018 – has gotten decent overall production from the former Astro. This year’s version is showing more power than ever, with a career-high .228 ISO. Castro, 32, also boasts a .244/.327/.472 line with 12 HRs through 224 PA. Known primarily for his defensive prowess, Castro’s having another fine season in that realm. A return to Minnesota in 2020 seems unlikely, though, as fellow Twins catcher Mitch Garver has emerged as one of baseball’s supreme breakout players this season.
- Travis d’Arnaud, Rays: The Mets released d’Arnaud, a former star prospect, early in the season. Their loss has been an enormous gain for the Rays, who had been counting on offseason pickup Mike Zunino to perform respectably as their No. 1 catcher. Zunino has been awful, however, which has allowed d’Arnaud to put himself back on the map in Tampa Bay. The 30-year-old has batted a sturdy .261/.328/.469 with 13 homers in 271 attempts as a Ray, and has finally stayed healthy after multiple injury-laden seasons. Although d’Arnaud is more a middle-of-the-pack defender than a high-end one, it nonetheless appears he’s on his way to a solid offseason payday.
- Robinson Chirinos, Astros: If you’re looking for some affordable offensive pop from your catcher, Chirinos is a good choice. Just don’t expect defensive brilliance from the 35-year-old. Chirinos, whom the Rangers non-tendered last winter, has given the Astros a 373 PA of .236/.342/.428 hitting with 14 long balls. It’s the fifth straight season of above-average production at the plate from Chirinos.
On the Fringe:
- Brian McCann, Braves: Now 35, the seven-time All-Star can still play. In his return to Atlanta, the site of his greatest individual success, McCann has hit .264/.336/.423 and smacked 10 homers in 274 trips to the plate, though the lefty’s unplayable versus same-handed pitchers. Defensively, although McCann has thrown out a mere 14 percent of would-be base thieves, Baseball Prospectus has looked kindly on his overall work. McCann should get another guaranteed one-year deal in the offseason if he wants, but perhaps he’ll decide to call it quits.
- Martin Maldonado, Astros: Maldonado’s defensive skills are well-documented, but whether he hits enough to serve as a regular is debatable. The 33-year-old has batted a less-than-stellar .210/.284/.360 in 319 PA this season, but it does seem likely he’ll get a major league deal over the winter. He turned down two years and $12MM from Houston last offseason before signing with Kansas City for $2.5MM, after all, and was then in demand around this year’s trade deadline. Two teams (the Cubs and then the Astros) swung deals for him last month.
Potentially Useful 30-Somethings:
- Alex Avila, Diamondbacks: A team looking for a capable backup could do a lot worse than Avila. He has been a better-than-average defender two years running, per BP’s FRAA metric, and has yet again performed well with the bat. The walk-heavy lefty has drawn free passes just under 20 percent of the time this season en route to a .223/.377/.488 showing through 151 PA. Avila’s a soon-to-be 33-year-old who has extreme difficulty against same-handed pitchers, so he’s not going to come at a high price.
- Russell Martin, Dodgers: Martin has been one of the premier catchers in baseball for a large portion of his career, which began in 2006, but the 36-year-old’s offensive efficacy is fading. The always patient Martin has gotten on base at a .330 clip this year, though his average is barely above the Mendoza line, his slugging percentage is a point under .300 and his ISO is below .100. At the very least, though, Martin’s a still-useful defender and a well-respected teammate.
- Jonathan Lucroy, Cubs: Lucroy may be able to get a major league contract in the offseason, as he did when the Cubs signed him this month after the Angels released him, but his days as a viable starter are clearly over. Formerly an elite all-around backstop, the 33-year-old falls well short as a hitter and defender nowadays. However, Lucroy’s modest-looking line of .245/.313/368 in 300 PA does amount to an 83 wRC+, which is roughly average relative to his position.
- Matt Wieters, Cardinals: Dubbed “Mauer with Power” during his days as a super-prospect with the Orioles, Wieters has seldom lived up to the hype in the majors. Wieters was a legit starter for a while, granted, but the 33-year-old’s now amid his second straight season as a part-timer. The 33-year-old has been a usable backup at the plate, evidenced by his .219/.272/.439 line and 10 HRs through 169 PA, though his numbers are hardly great (or even good). Wieters’ defensive output – at least by the advanced metrics – has also continued to lag. He has, however, thrown out an eye-popping 44 percent of would-be base-stealers. But Wieters had to settle for a minors deal last winter after a similarly productive 2018, and he may have to do the same during the upcoming winter.
- Welington Castillo, White Sox: This season has been an utter disaster for Castillo, a normally decent hitter who currently owns a .203/.270/.368 line with minus-1.0 fWAR over 200 trips to the plate. Castillo’s technically not a surefire free agent, as the White Sox hold an $8MM club option for him for 2020, but they’ll decline it in favor of a $500K buyout. While Castillo, now 32, secured a two-year, $15MM guarantee last time he reached the open market, a major league contract may not be a lock this time around.
- Francisco Cervelli, Braves: As with Castillo, Cervelli’s a once-successful backstop who’s coming off a sizable contract (three years, $31MM). The Pirates released Cervelli from that deal last week, though he quickly landed on his feet on a majors pact with the Braves. Whether he’ll haul in another guaranteed pact in the offseason is up in the air. After all, the 33-year-old has a long history of concussion issues – a brain injury has shelved him for most of this season – and hasn’t been productive in 2019. Cervelli’s just a .220/.298/.314 hitter with a single HR in 132 trips this year.
- Stephen Vogt, Giants: The switch-hitting Vogt has somewhat quietly been one of the majors’ best comeback stories this season. A two-time All-Star with the Athletics from 2013-17, Vogt missed all of last season with the Brewers because of what looked like career-threatening shoulder problems. He didn’t give up, though, returning to the Bay Area in the offseason on a non-guaranteed deal with the Giants. They brought Vogt up May 1, and all he has done since then is slash .275/.329/.523 with eight homers and a personal-high .249 ISO in 222 PA. Between that and his highly regarded behind-the-scenes presence, the soon-to-be 35-year-old Vogt will draw offseason interest, though a major league deal could be difficult to land.
- Austin Romine, Yankees: Romine has been stuck in the shadow of Gary Sanchez in New York, but he has been a decent offensive backup twice in a row. The 30-year-old has overcome a glacial start this season to post a .268/.290/.408 line in 187 PA, though he has drawn walks at just a 3.2 percent clip. While the FRAA metric graded Romine favorably from 2017-18, he has been a minus in that category this season. Still, whether with the Yankees or another team, the 30-year-old figures to get a guaranteed contract in the winter.
Iffy Option Decisions:
- Yan Gomes, Nationals: Gomes, a former Indian, was in the throes of an abysmal season as recently as mid-July, but he’s starting to heat up. Will it be enough for the Nationals to pick up his option for $9MM and not buy him out for $1MM? We’ll see. The overall line of .219/.325/.342 with six homers in 274 PA obviously isn’t what the Nats had in mind when they acquired Gomes, nor is the mediocre defense he has given them. However, if Washington does turn down the option, it’s doubtful the 32-year-old Gomes will have much trouble finding work in the offseason.
August Acquisition Period Ends On Saturday
We have previously examined the limited means by which teams can add players during the month of August. The rules remain the same when the calendar flips to September, except that newly acquired players can no longer participate in the postseason.
If teams want to add a postseason-eligible player, they’ll have to do so on or before midnight eastern time this coming Saturday. The end-of-August rush won’t be nearly as exciting as it has been in recent years, since there are no more August trades of MLB contracts, but it could still force some action. Teams contemplating whether to expose veteran players to waivers will face a decision point, knowing that those players won’t hold as much appeal if they’re not eligible for the postseason with a new organization.
There’s also still some possibility for surprise opportunities. Most teams placing claims on veterans will be doing so with a focus on immediate needs. But some non-contenders may look at controllable assets. And it’s even conceivable that some interesting players will become available if a contender or two decides to free a roster spot and/or shed excess salary to facilitate another acquisition.
Which players might be candidates to change hands? We’ve also recently listed many such possibilities. Since we compiled that list, several players have indeed hit the wire and ended up being claimed. That includes Billy Hamilton (Braves from Royals), Cory Gearrin (Yankees from Mariners), and Jared Hughes (Phillies from Reds). Others (Adeiny Hechavarria, Chris Iannetta, Jhoulys Chacin) have cleared waivers and hit the open market. And there are a few still-pending waiver-claim candidates, including Nick Martini (Athletics) and Aaron Altherr (Mets).
So … what happens if a player is placed on waivers and one or more contenders have interest? They’ll have to decide whether to place a claim, which will mean taking over the remainder of the contract obligations, or whether to wait and hope the player clears waivers and decides to sign with them as a free agent. If multiple teams place claims on the same player, the commissioner’s office will assign the claim based upon its rules. Claims are processed two days after waivers are sought, at 1 pm eastern time, meaning we could see a bit of a Thursday rush to make players available by Saturday.
The waiver priority system is quite simple: it’s based upon winning percentage. The lower team always has dibs. While the old rules looked first to the league (National or American) of the team seeking waivers, league status now functions only as a tiebreaker if two clubs with the same record each make a claim.
Priority shifts with any move in the standings, so there can and will still be some shuffling. But as of today, this is the order of waiver priority that will govern. (And yes, this also constitutes a current look at the reverse standings for purposes of determining draft order.)
- Tigers (39-89)
- Orioles (43-88)
- Royals (46-86)
- Marlins (47-83)
- Blue Jays (53-80)
- Pirates (55-76)
- Mariners (56-76)
- Rockies (59-73)
- White Sox (60-70)
- Padres & Reds (61-69) (tie)
- Angels (63-70)
- Rangers (64-68)
- Giants (65-66)
- Diamondbacks (66-66)
- Brewers (67-64)
- Mets (67-63)
- Phillies (68-62)
- Cubs (69-61)
- Red Sox (70-62)
- Cardinals (72-58)
- Nationals (73-57)
- Rays (76-56)
- Athletics (75-55)
- Indians (76-55)
- Braves (80-53)
- Twins (79-51)
- Astros (85-47)
- Dodgers & Yankees (86-47) (tie)
Does MLB’s Options Structure Need To Change?
Giants right-hander Jeff Samardzija recently crossed the 10-year threshold in terms of Major League service time and took the occasion to voice concerns about the difficulty today’s younger players will have in reaching that same milestone (link via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle). More specifically, Samardzija wondered aloud how any young player can be expected to reach 10 years of big league service when modern front offices utilize the final spots on the MLB roster as a carousel of various relievers and bench players in an effort to keep their rosters fresh.
“These guys are being productive for our team but at the same time only getting 70 to 80 service days a season,” said Samardzija. “It’s going to take them till they’re 34, 35 or more to get six years, and then 40 to get 10 years. … We need to make sure one option can’t be 10 callups or call-downs where we can use them as swing guys who don’t accumulate any time.”
Samardzija’s precise wording is perhaps a bit embellished, but the sentiment is indeed reflective of today’s baseball climate. Players are optioned back and forth between the Majors and minors at a higher clip than ever before. The shift from a 15-day to a 10-day injured list — one that, notably, will be reversed for pitchers beginning in 2020 — in particular, has emboldened front offices to use brief trips to the IL as a means of resting pitchers and getting fresh arms into their bullpens or rotations when the need (often) arises. Rather than carrying a largely set seven- or eight-man bullpen, many clubs have only four to six set relievers and round out the final bullpen spots with a parade of changing faces.
As the league’s option structure is currently constructed, there’s nothing wrong with doing any of that. Maintaining that level of agility on a club’s roster is now generally viewed as a sound baseball practice, and with good reason. It’s easier to manage workloads in the minor leagues, and a constant churn at the back of the bullpen prevents clubs from having to trot the same pitcher out to the mound on three or even four consecutive days.
At the same time, the increased prevalence of optioning players in this fashion will eventually only increase the number of big leaguers who exhaust their minor league options, and that eventuality will the have the opposite effect of reducing teams’ roster flexibility. And for the players, of course, it does indeed become more difficult to garner substantial service time. The Yankees have sent left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. back to Triple-A on seven different occasions this season. The Twins have done the same with Kohl Stewart. That’s a far better fate than merely sitting in the minors and not accruing any MLB time, but it’s also easy to see why players would argue that it’s a frustrating and suboptimal process that could be tweaked.
As things currently stand, players receive three option years (and, in rare cases stemming from significant minor league injuries, sometimes a fourth). Any player on the 40-man roster who is sent down to the minors and spends more than 20 days there is considered to have used an option year. He can be shuttled to and from the minors as often as the team deems fit that season all under the umbrella of that single option year.
As Schulman notes in the Samardzija interview, this very infrastructure is among the myriad topics being discussed as the league and the players’ union are in the early stages of collective bargaining negotiations. The current CBA runs through the 2021 season, so it’s unlikely that there’ll be any immediate changes to such a core component of roster construction, but the rising number of issues the players are bringing to the table in labor talks does seem like a portent for change in some respects. Surely, only a fraction of those issues will result in meaningful change, and the minor league option infrastructure is but one piece of the much broader topic of service time.
(Poll link for app users)
Does MLB need to change its minor league option system?
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Yes, the frequent roster turnover has gotten to be too much, and we need something better, 66% (2,919)
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The current system works just fine. The MLBPA should focus on other priorities. 34% (1,497)
Total votes: 4,416
Rafael Devers’ Star Turn
Considering his age, contract status and performance, there is no question that Boston’s Rafael Devers is on the short list of most valuable third basemen in the game. That Devers has reached this point isn’t something which would’ve shocked many observers back when the Red Sox promoted the then-touted prospect to the majors in July 2017. However, his production was closer to average than excellent over his first season-plus in the majors. That’s not a knock on Devers, who was – and still is – incredibly young for the level. This season, though, the 22-year-old has overcome his age to perform like one of the absolute best players in baseball.
Devers went off on the Orioles on Sunday, collecting four hits in five trips to the plate, including a home run and a pair of doubles. Just a few days earlier, he victimized Cleveland for six hits in as many attempts, notching a ridiculous four doubles. The left-hander now owns a .332/.380/.596 line with 27 home runs across 546 PA this season. We seldom cite RBI here at MLBTR, but the fact that Devers has piled up 101 is mighty impressive, too.
Among all position players, Devers ranks fifth in fWAR (5.5) – tied with multiple players, including Astros third base superstar Alex Bregman – and ninth in wRC+ (147). That’s the output of an elite player, not to mention a far cry from the 1.0 fWAR and 90 wRC+ Devers recorded over 490 trips to the plate just a year ago.
How did Devers go from there to here in such a short period of time? It starts with his strikeout rate. After fanning in roughly 24 percent of plate appearances in each of his first two campaigns, Devers has slashed the number to 16.1 this year. He’s only walking in the 7 percent range, which was the case from 2017-18, but drawing free passes at a below-average rate stings a lot less when you seldom strike out.
Devers’ downtick in K’s has come in spite of a more aggressive approach, believe it or not, as he has swung at a higher number of pitchers in general while making far more contact outside the zone. He put the bat on the ball in the neighborhood of 63 percent between 2017-18, but he’s all the way up to 70.9 in ’19. Furthermore, Devers has held his own against every pitch hurlers have thrown at him, evidenced by his production versus fastballs (.422 weighted on-base average/.405 expected wOBA), breaking balls (.357/.302) and offspeed offerings (.437/.411). Devers’ success against all pitches has helped him get past his woes against lefties, who held him to a ghastly 63 wRC+ a year ago. He’s up to a much more respectable 109 in that department versus southpaws this season.
Meanwhile, after sitting in the low .190s in previous years, Devers’ ISO (.264) has gone through the roof this season. Considering pitchers can’t seem to get anything past him anymore, that’s no surprise. While Devers has hit fewer fly balls this season, he has also amassed fewer grounders at the expense of more line drives. That’s a recipe for success, especially when you rank 17th in baseball in average exit velocity on liners and flies (96.9 mph). Similarly, Devers sits 18th in percentage of balls hit at 95 mph-plus (49.2). As you’d expect, then, he’s a Statcast darling overall, also ranking near the pinnacle of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (89th), expected slugging percentage (92nd), expected batting average (96th), hard-hit rate (96th). The “weakest” figure of the bunch is Devers’ xwOBA, but his .376 (compared to a .405 real wOBA) is still fantastic and a 71-point increase over last year’s .305.
To be sure, a likely unsustainable .359 batting average on balls in play has nudged Devers’ numbers upward this year. But a high BABIP isn’t anything new for Devers – who, aside from last year, has regularly logged marks well over .300 since his professional career began in 2014. Even if Devers’ BABIP does drop going forward, the Red Sox should still have one of the most coveted players in baseball on their hands. In a season that hasn’t gone the defending champions’ way, Devers has clearly been a bright light, and with one more pre-arbitration campaign remaining and four more years of team control left, he could be a Boston standout for a while longer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Best Young Starters Of 2019
We’re nearing the end of the 2019 regular season, a campaign which has featured plenty of valuable contributions from young starters. By my count, no fewer than 10 starters age 25 or younger have excelled this year. Several of them could continue helping their teams’ causes once the postseason rolls around in a couple months. In alphabetical order, let’s take a look at the best of the bunch…
Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2019; scheduled for free agency after 2022):
- This has been the third straight quality season for Berrios, who has amassed 157 2/3 innings of 3.37 ERA/3.92 FIP ball with 8.56 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9. Aside from a rough debut in 2016, Berrios has been among the most impressive young starters in the game throughout his career.
Shane Bieber, RHP, Indians (age: 24; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2021; scheduled for free agency after 2024):
- Bieber was terrific over a 114 2/3-inning debut in 2018, but he has been downright spectacular this year. While Bieber won the MVP of the All-Star Game, which was held in his team’s city of Cleveland, he has been even more impressive in meaningful action. Bieber owns a 3.27 ERA/3.32 FIP with 11.09 K/9 against 1.83 BB/9 in 162 1/3 frames of action. Only four starters have outdone Bieber’s K/BB ratio of 6.06.
Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2024):
- Buehler, whose fastball averages just under 97 mph, is one of the few starters to outperform Bieber in K/BB ratio (6.38). His 10.57 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 have helped him log a sterling 3.31 ERA/3.00 FIP over 141 1/3 innings, thus aiding Buehler in replicating the phenomenal production he posted during his 137 1/3-frame rookie campaign a year ago.
Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals (age: 23; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2023):
- One of the youngest starters on this youth-laden list, Flaherty was superb across 151 innings last year and has followed that up properly this season. While Flaherty owned an unattractive 4.90 ERA as recently as July 2, he has caught fire since then. In his most recent eight starts, Flaherty has yielded a mere five earned runs on 25 hits with 61 strikeouts and 14 walks in 50 1/3 innings. Flaherty now owns a 3.46 ERA/4.02 FIP and 10.39 K/9 against 2.89 BB/9 through 140 1/3 innings this season.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, White Sox (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2023):
- As we covered in greater detail back in May, Giolito has figured it out this season. The former can’t-miss prospect was a disaster as recently as last year, but the 2019 version has recorded a nearly matching 3.41 ERA/3.37 FIP with 11.48 K/9 and 3.22 BB/9 in 142 2/3 innings. Giolito’s success has come thanks in part to a dramatic increase in velocity – after averaging 92.8 mph on his fastball in 2018, he’s up to 94.5 this season.
German Marquez, RHP, Rockies (age: 24; team control: signed through 2023 for a guaranteed five years and $43MM):
- The hard-throwing Marquez doesn’t get nearly enough recognition, largely because he pitches in Colorado, but the fact that he’s able to succeed despite calling Coors Field home should earn him extra credit. He was an absolute strikeout machine in 2018, when he punched out 230 hitters in 196 innings en route to a 3.77 ERA/3.40 FIP. That convinced the Rockies to lock up Marquez at set prices for the foreseeable future. Good move on their part. Although Marquez hasn’t been as effective this season, any team would take the 4.71 ERA/3.95 FIP, 9.16 K/9 against 1.77 BB/9, and 50 percent groundball rate he has put up over 168 frames.
Chris Paddack, RHP, Padres (age: 23; eligible for arbitration after 2021; scheduled for free agency 2024):
- Paddack has had a tough time over three August starts, but the former top prospect has nonetheless lived up to his pre-MLB billing this year. The rookie has registered a 3.44 ERA/4.21 FIP with 9.47 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9 in his first 115 major league innings. If you’re a fan of WHIP, Paddack’s minuscule 0.98 mark ties him with Astros stars Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke for fourth among those who have tossed 100-plus innings in 2019.
Mike Soroka, RHP, Braves (age: 22; eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2024):
- We arrive at the youngest starter on this list, someone who’d have a better shot at NL Rookie of the Year honors if not for the exploits of Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. But Soroka will definitely get some votes in his own right, especially considering he’s the premier starter on a team with legitimate World Series aspirations. The sinker-reliant Soroka has managed a brilliant 2.41 ERA/3.29 FIP with 7.15 K/9, 2.21 BB/9 and a groundball percentage of 54.0 through 134 2/3 innings this season.
Injury omissions:
None of the Yankees’ Luis Severino, the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani or the Astros’ Lance McCullers Jr. have thrown a pitch this season because of injuries. The 25-year-old Severino, who could still take the mound sometime in the next couple months, may be the most enticing pitcher of the trio. He was a true ace from 2017-18, a 384 2/3-inning span in which he pitched to a 3.18 ERA/3.01 FIP with 10.53 K/9 against 2.27 BB/9. Ohtani, also 25, only racked up 51 2/3 frames during his debut season in 2018, but the two-way star wowed then with a 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP and 10.97 K/9 against 3.83 BB/9. And McCullers, yet another 25-year-old, combined for 453 2/3 innings of 3.67 ERA/3.24 FIP ball with 10.1 K/9, 3.53 BB/9 and a strong 54.6 percent groundball rate from 2015-18 before joining Ohtani in undergoing Tommy John surgery last fall.
Honorable mentions:
No disrespect to the Braves’ Max Fried (25) or the Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson (24), but they’re overshadowed by better teammates in Soroka and Flaherty, respectively.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Who Will Be The AL’s Wild Card Teams?
The Twins hold a 2.5-game lead over the Indians in the AL Central after today’s action, and in addition to fighting for the division crown, both clubs are desperately trying to avoid facing even more competition in the AL wild card hunt. Cleveland (74-51) is currently in possession of the top wild card spot, with the Rays (73-52) in the second slot, just a game behind.
Despite taking three of four games from the Astros, the Athletics are still 7.5 games behind Houston in the AL West, leaving the wild card as Oakland’s most realistic shot at a postseason berth. The A’s (71-53) are 1.5 games behind the Rays.
Had this poll been posted even a couple of days ago, the Red Sox would likely have been omitted, yet a five-game winning streak merits them a mention. Boston (67-59) is still 6.5 games behind Tampa Bay, and don’t have many head-to-head opportunities remaining against their division rivals, as the Sox and Rays only play four more times this season. The Red Sox do have a three-game set against Minnesota on September 3-5 at Fenway Park.
The Twins have six critical September games lined up against the Tribe, but beyond those two series, Minnesota has a clear advantage over Cleveland in terms of benefiting from their weak division. Twenty-six of the Twins’ remaining 38 games are against the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers, while the Indians only face the AL Central’s lesser lights 16 times in their final 37 games.
It all adds up to a wild final six weeks of action, particularly since injuries, roster shuffles, and players on both incredible hot streaks and cold streaks continue to change the narrative on a near-daily basis. In particularly, all three non-AL Central teams face looming questions about their pitching staffs. Can the A’s get their long-awaited influx of young pitching reinforcements once multiple arms return from the injured list? Can the Rays get by three-fourths of their regular rotation (Blake Snell, Yonny Chirinos, Tyler Glasnow) still hurt? Can the Red Sox mount a late-season comeback even as their own inconsistent rotation has suffered perhaps a critical blow?
Which two teams do you think will emerge from the fray to play in the one-game Wild Card playoff in October? (Poll link for app users)
Which two teams will win the AL wild cards?
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Rays/AL Central runner-up 41% (5,523)
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Athletics/AL Central runner-up 23% (3,072)
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Rays/Athletics 21% (2,845)
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Red Sox/AL Central runner-up 7% (877)
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Rays/Red Sox 5% (704)
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Athletics/Red Sox 3% (445)
Total votes: 13,466
A Minor Signing Pays Off For Giants
Giants infielder Donovan Solano has somewhat quietly held his own since the team selected his contract from Triple-A Sacramento on May 7. Dating back to then, Solano has slashed .331/.363/.471 (119 wRC+) with four home runs across 168 plate appearances. Not bad for someone who had to settle for a minor league pact when he joined the Giants last offseason.
Solano’s output this year has been all the more impressive considering he hadn’t appeared in the majors since 2016 prior to his promotion to San Francisco’s roster. He logged a fair amount of playing time with the Marlins from 2012-15 and a bit with the Yankees the year after his Miami tenure ended, but he only managed a .257/.306/.331 line during that 1,168-PA span between the two teams. What’s more, Solano didn’t acquit himself particularly great as a minor leaguer with the Marlins, Yankees or Dodgers, evidenced in part by his lifetime .724 OPS in 2,570 PA at the Triple-A level. He was solid – albeit far from excellent – as a member of the Giants’ top minors affiliate at the outset of the season, hitting .322/.392/.437 (108 wRC+) with a pair of homers over 97 attempts as part of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Solano’s early season production in Sacramento was enough to earn him another big league call-up, and he hasn’t looked back. His effectiveness has played a role in the resurgence of the Giants, who have rallied from the dead this summer to at least enter the National League wild-card conversation. The question is: Might the Giants – who haven’t gotten much from any second base choice but Solano – have actually found a legitimate late bloomer? Going by the numbers, it’s a mixed bag.
Solano’s .397 batting average on balls in play isn’t going to continue, which is especially ominous for someone who doesn’t hit for much power, and his 87 mph average exit velocity ranks toward the bottom of the league. He also seldom walks, having drawn free passes at a subpar 4.8 percent clip.
Solano has, however, offset his lack of walks to some degree by striking out less than most hitters (20.2 percent). When he has put the bat on the ball, the right-hander has increased his line drives and hard-contact rate (according to FanGraphs), cut down on grounders, and recorded quality production against righty and lefty hurlers alike. Solano has struggled mightily at the Giants’ pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park, where he has batted .266/.289/.304, though he has made up for that by slashing a fantastic .397/.435/.641 on the road. Overall, Statcast shows little difference between Solano’s weighted on-base average (.356) and expected wOBA (.359).
While Solano had made clear improvements this season, it’s highly debatable whether he could emerge as a multiyear solution for the Giants. Even if he doesn’t, the Giants couldn’t have expected Solano to put up what has easily been a career campaign in 2019 when they inked him to a no-risk deal. Given the work Solano has done in a San Francisco uniform, he looks like one of the winter’s top minor league signings at this point.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?
The two best teams in the American League Central brutalized their opponents on Thursday. The Twins crushed the Rangers, 13-6. The Indians pulled off an even more decisive victory, destroying the mighty Yankees by a 19-5 score. On the heels of those wins, Minnesota and Cleveland entered play Friday neck and neck in the division, which has largely been the case over the past couple weeks. The Twins hold a half-game lead over the Indians, the three-time reigning AL Central champions.
The fact that the race has gotten this close is somewhat hard to believe. For most of the season, the division has looked like the Twins’ in a runaway. They owned an 11-game edge over the Tribe as recently as June 15, but the Indians have chipped away since then. Despite the long-term absences of arguably their two top pitchers – Corey Kluber (out since May 1 with a fractured forearm) and Carlos Carrasco (out since May 30 because of leukemia) – the Indians have remained on the Twins’ heels. The Indians also traded away high-end starter Trevor Bauer prior to last month’s deadline, though they received immediate help for their lineup in outfielders Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes in return.
Cleveland’s starting staff, which should at least get Kluber back sometime soon, has gotten by mostly because of young sensation Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger. Meanwhile, the ERAs of rookie Zach Plesac and Adam Plutko have far outperformed much weaker peripherals, while first-year right-hander Aaron Civale has been excellent over his first few starts. And the Indians’ lineup, which was a sore spot earlier in the season, has risen from the dead with help from Jose Ramirez and Jason Kipnis – both of whom struggled mightily at the outset of the campaign – among those complementing Carlos Santana and Francisco Lindor.
The Indians went into play Friday with 169 home runs – 67 fewer than the major league-leading Twins’ 236. Minnesota’s on track to breeze past the single-season record of 267 that the Yankees set just a year ago, but the Twins’ co-leader, designated Nelson Cruz (32 HRs), has been on the injured list since last week because of a strained wrist. Their lineup’s still in enviable shape – Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Luis Arraez are among those enjoying standout seasons – but the team has nonetheless stopped operating at a breakneck pace. Since it held its 11-game lead over the Indians two months ago, Minnesota has gone a mediocre 26-26. Starters Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez have all slowed down to some degree as the season has moved along, while the Twins’ bullpen – despite the acquisitions of Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo before the deadline – hasn’t thrived.
Considering the Twins have been atop the AL Central throughout the year and currently lead the division, they’re the front-runners to take it this year. Indeed, FanGraphs gives the Twins a 60.6 percent chance to win the division and the Indians 39.4 percent odds. But it would be unwise to count out Cleveland, which has remarkably rallied to make it a legitimate race and still has six regular-season matchups left against Minnesota. Which of the two teams do you expect to win the division?
(Poll link for app users)
Who will win the AL Central?
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Twins 55% (4,286)
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Indians 45% (3,503)
Total votes: 7,789
13 Pitchers Whose Saves Tallies Will Drive 2020 Earnings
The ability to handle late-inning pressure still has value to teams. But the accumulation of saves, standing alone, isn’t generally the driver of open-market bullpen salaries that it once was. For arbitration, however, saves tallies pay big, opening the door to significant earning opportunities for relievers.
So, which players have put themselves in position to command nice salary boosts this fall owing to their saves tallies? Here’s a list of the baker’s dozen hurlers who’ll be eligible for arbitration next year and have already accrued double-digit saves in 2019:
- Kirby Yates, Padres ($3.062MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Currently pacing all of baseball with 33 saves, Yates is lining up quite a fruitful final trip through arbitration. He’s not working off of the biggest platform, but he’s likely to get the biggest raise of this group with his saves totals and general brilliance (1.13 ERA, 77 strikeouts) … unless he and the Friars strike an extension.
- Roberto Osuna, Astros ($6.5MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Osuna has been effective, but not exceptionally dominant. Having blown five saves, and not been ridden particularly hard by the Houston org, he has accumulated somewhat fewer saves (26) than might have been anticipated for one of the league’s winningest teams. Osuna is still on pace to out-earn every other pitcher on this list in total arbitration earnings, owing to his massive Super Two starting salary.
- Edwin Diaz, Mets ($607K current salary; entering 1st of 3 seasons of eligibility): Though he is still racking up strikeouts, Diaz is also proving exceptionally homer-prone in New York. His 5.56 ERA is an unquestionable disappointment. Still, having already picked up 25 saves and with more yet to come, he is going to command a big first-time arb salary. It just won’t be nearly as much as it would have been had his platform year looked more like his 2018 effort.
- Alex Colome, White Sox ($7.325MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): The 30-year-old has the saves total (23) and ERA (2.30) of an ace reliever, with the peripherals (7.7 K/9 vs. 3.6 BB/9; 4.53 SIERA, 4.59 xFIP) of a passable middle reliever. There’s an argument to be made that he shouldn’t be tendered, since it’s going to cost a pretty penny, though that seems rather unlikely given that the South Siders decided against trading him when they had the chance this summer.
- Shane Greene, Braves ($4MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Unfortunately, Greene blew his shot — his first one, anyway; we’ll see how things progress in Atlanta — at building up his saves tally after being dealt to the Braves. He has already accumulated 22, so he’ll be in line for a nice raise regardless. In his last arb experience, Greene earned a raise of just over $2MM by closing out 32 wins in 2018.
- Hector Neris, Phillies ($1.8MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): The Philadelphia closer is still building on his 21-save figure. He has also already accumulated 68 strikeouts this season.
- Taylor Rogers, Twins ($1.525MM current salary; entering 2nd of 4 seasons of eligibility): The extra year of arbitration afforded by Super Two status sure can pay off. Rogers has 18 saves, 68 strikeouts, and a 2.68 ERA through 53 2/3 innings. A big raise this year will further raise his base for two additional arb trips.
- Luke Jackson, Braves ($585K current salary; entering 1st of 3 seasons of eligibility): Few expected Jackson to remain on the Atlanta roster all year, let alone to accumulate 18 saves and 73 strikeouts to this point. He isn’t especially likely to pad his total down the stretch, having surrendered the job to a still-unsettled cast of incoming relievers, but Jackson ha set the stage regardless for a much-better-than-expected offseason payday.
- Ken Giles, Blue Jays ($6.3MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): The Toronto organization was never going to win a ton of games, so Giles was never likely to accumulate a huge number of saves. But he’s stuck on 16 owing to an unfortunate elbow issue that arose in the midst of an outstanding season (1.89 ERA, 62 strikeouts in 38 innings). If he had remained healthy and taken over the 9th for a contender, he’d have had much greater earning capacity. Fortunately for Giles, he has a high starting point to build from.
- Hansel Robles, Angels ($1.4MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Another unexpected save tallier, Robles has picked up 16 with more to come. He has established himself as a key cog in the Halos pen, though it remains to be seen whether he’ll hang onto the closer’s role for 2020.
- Blake Treinen, Athletics ($6.4MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Treinen enjoyed a record-setting arb run last year but has regressed on the mound, working to a 4.74 ERA with just 8.4 K/9 against 5.7 BB/9 along with an uncharacteristically low 42.9% groundball rate. With 16 saves already logged, Treinen is going to command a not-unsubstantial raise on top of his already hefty salary. It’d be awfully tough to give up on a pitcher with his upside, particularly since he’s still pumping upper-nineties heat, but the tab seems steep for the A’s. If he’s not a non-tender candidate, Treinen will likely be batted around in offseason trade talks.
- Roenis Elias, Nationals ($910K current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): There’s no real chance that Elias will add to his sum of 14 saves, all accrued with the Mariners before he was dealt to D.C., but that’s still a nice feather in his cap. Elias can also hope to add some holds down the stretch, though he’ll have to work back from the injured list first.
- Liam Hendriks, Athletics ($2.15MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Since taking the reigns from Treinen, the breakout Aussie hurler has picked up 13 saves with more to come. While he’s not going to drive a huge raise with the save numbers alone, Hendriks is also pacing this list with a hefty 63 1/3 inning workload and has already recorded 88 strikeouts.