Carlos Carrasco Has Gone Backward
Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco was somewhat quietly one of the majors’ most dominant starters from 2014-18. During that 807 2/3-inning, 131-start span, Carrasco recorded a 3.31 ERA/3.03 FIP with 10.18 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, a 48.0 percent groundball rate and upward of 20 wins above replacement. That five-year stretch convinced the Indians to keep and extend Carrasco in the offseason, when there were rumblings they could offload starters, signing him to a team-friendly contract. Two months into the season, though, the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions haven’t resembled their previous selves, in part because Carrasco hasn’t managed the same results as he did in prior years.
The 32-year-old Carrasco has pitched to a 4.98 ERA through 65 innings, averaging just over five frames per start after logging better than six an outing during the previous half-decade. Carrasco’s 4.07 FIP is nowhere near as underwhelming as his ERA, but it’s still a run higher than he and the Indians are accustomed to. His strikeout and walk rates are phenomenal (10.94 K/9, 1.52 BB/9), and his .353 batting average on balls in play further suggests positive regression in the run prevention department. Aside from those figures, though, there are legit reasons for concern regarding Carrasco.
It begins with a newfound difficulty keeping the ball out of the air. Carrasco’s groundball percentage has nosedived to a career-worst 39.2, leading to personal worsts in fly ball rate (38.7) and launch angle against (14.2). Surprise, surprise: Home run troubles have come with those changes. Carrasco’s yielding gopher balls on 20 percent of flies, up from 12.7 during his aforementioned five-year stretch of excellence. It’s not just HRs, though – Carrasco’s surrendering more damaging contact in general. He ranks in the bottom 8 percent of the league or worse in exit velocity against (90.9), barrel percentage against (14.1) and hard-hit rate (47.3 percent), according to Statcast, which also assigns Carrasco a below-average expected weighted on-base average against (.329, compared to .280 in 2018).
So what’s causing Carrasco to falter? His biggest problem seems to be his changeup, a pitch he has relied on between 16 and 18 percent of the time dating back to last season. Batters have posted a .432/.377 xwOBA versus the offering this season after mustering a matching (and weak) .224/.224 against it a year ago. As is typically the case with changeups, Carrasco has primarily used it in an effort to quell opposite-handed hitters. They’ve caused the most damage against Carrasco, though, having slashed .287/.331/.574 for a .371 wOBA.
In essence, the average lefty swinger who has faced Carrasco in 2019 has hit like Trevor Story or Matt Chapman. That wasn’t the case last year, when lefties managed a Joe Panik-esque .302 wOBA off Carrasco. It’s happening in part because Carrasco isn’t locating his change as precisely as he did in 2018, keeping it too close to the middle of the plate (and inside versus lefties). That wasn’t true last season. Carrasco has had a similar problem with his curveball, having allowed a ludicrous .908/.719 wOBA/xwOBA when throwing it, though he has only turned to the pitch 2.3 percent of the time (down 5 percent from last year, when it was much more effective).
Cleveland’s a 28-28 team with a minus-12 run differential, already facing a 9 1/2-game deficit in the division it has owned in recent seasons. Considering the myriad issues the Indians are facing – including the weeks-long absences of injured righties Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger, not to mention fellow RHP Trevor Bauer‘s own decline – a middling version of Carrasco is one of the last things they needed. That’s what the Indians have gotten, though, and unless Carrasco returns to form, catching the first-place Twins is going to be an even tougher task.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Revisiting The Best Fits For Craig Kimbrel
With the draft just a few days away, it’s likely that free agents Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel will (finally) come off the board in the near future. Once the calendar flips from June 2 to June 3, clubs will no longer be forced to surrender a draft pick to sign either former All-Star.
Heading into the season and even early in the year, we looked at plenty of potential landing spots for both. But as the draft inched closer and the two remained unsigned, it became increasingly clear that they could try their hand at the 2014 Kendrys Morales gambit and sit out into June in order to open their market.
Now, not only are Kimbrel and Keuchel once again a relevant topic — they’re met with different markets than they encountered during Spring Training. With a third of the season in the books, teams have a better understanding of how they fit into their divisional and Wild Card landscapes. Injuries have altered the construction of rosters throughout the league. Some fits still make sense, just as much if not more than they did two or three months ago, but that’s not the case across the board. Trade possibilities are also beginning to take shape, creating new and different competition for these hurlers.
Let’s take a look at the most plausible on-paper fits for Kimbrel:
Teams with obvious offseason payroll limitations
The Pirates are in the mix in the NL Central, but I don’t think I need to expand upon the reasons that we won’t be seeing a free agent reliever with Kimbrel’s anticipated price tag land in Pittsburgh. The Indians are trying to claw back into the AL Central race and are right in the thick of the Wild Card picture, but they spent the winter cutting payroll. Kimbrel won’t be in the cards.
The Cubs could clearly use Kimbrel, but their offseason payroll constraints were clear. Maybe they saved some money for in-season moves, but it’s rare to dig through the couch cushions for change and pull out a hundred dollar bill. We’re barely three months past owner Tom Ricketts declaring he had no more money to spend, and even if the Cubs aren’t paying Ben Zobrist’s full salary (which isn’t fully clear), they’re near the second luxury tax bracket. From a roster perspective, the Cubs are a perfect fit, but it’d require a pretty sizable pivot from ownership.
May be close to their payroll limit
Back in the offseason I delved into why the Red Sox aren’t really a fit given the huge luxury tax hit that would accompany Kimbrel there. Those same luxury concerns are still present. Would the Wilpon family be willing to push the Mets’ payroll further into franchise-record territory than it already is (before even factoring in possible July trades)? It’s hard to envision. The Reds have had a great month to prevent themselves from falling out of the NL Central race after an awful start, but their payroll is already $25MM higher than last season’s and $11MM higher than it ever has been before. Even if they were to add to the payroll, the bullpen isn’t their most pressing area of concern. The Athletics didn’t necessarily spend a ton this winter, but they did spend enough to push their payroll to a franchise-record $92MM. Kimbrel would help them, particularly with Blake Treinen slipping a bit, but I’m not buying the A’s buying Kimbrel. I imagine the Cardinals to be in a similar boat, given their own record payroll. They’ve been bitten by most of their recent bullpen expenditures as well (Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson, Greg Holland, Andrew Miller).
.500 clubs and fringe Wild Card teams
There’s a host of teams hovering around .500 and sitting within a stone’s throw of a Wild Card spot, but a more clear-cut divisional contender would have an easier time luring Kimbrel, who surely wants a shot at postseason redemption. You could make a case for any of the White Sox, Rangers, Angels, D-backs, Padres or Rockies, and there are indeed valid ways to see how he’d fit with some of those clubs, but it’s tough to classify any as a favorite.
Two months ago? Maybe! Now? Nope!
The Nationals, owners of an almost impossibly inept bullpen, get this category all to themselves. Kimbrel to the Nats was heavily rumored in spring but always felt like a bit of a stretch given that he’d push them back over the luxury tax for a third straight season. However, entering the year you could see why the Nationals might be willing to make that plunge. This was a team designed to contend in what was expected to be an ultra-competitive division, after all. Fast forward to the end of May, and the Nats sit eight games below .500 with a nine-game deficit in the NL East. Kimbrel alone isn’t fixing a bullpen ERA that somehow begins with the number 7. And, if you’re Kimbrel, do you really want to sign with a team that’s closer to the last-place Marlins than to a Wild Card spot?
Do they even need him?
Of course every bullpen can technically use a reliever of Kimbrel’s caliber, but he’s more a luxury for some contenders than others. The Yankees don’t need bullpen help even with Dellin Betances still sidelined and Chad Green doing very-non-Chad-Green things. Kimbrel would strengthen a strength and set them up for another deadly postseason relief corps, and the Yankees can afford him. The rotation is a greater need, though (cough cough Dallas Keuchel). Given that the Yankees will pay a 32 percent tax on any dollar they spend on a free agent at this point, they seem likelier to spend on needs than luxuries.
The luxury tax point doesn’t apply to the Astros, but the Houston ‘pen leads the Majors in ERA, FIP and xFIP. They’ve had some infield injuries and hiccups at the back of the rotation, so they have greater needs. Houston is already near a record level payroll and is reasonably close ($17MM) to the luxury tax line. Adding Kimbrel would limit their future maneuverability if ownership prefers to stay south of that line.
The best fits (listed alphabetically)
- Braves: Fans in Atlanta have been pleading for the front office to add Kimbrel for months, and the fit is more logical than ever. Closer Arodys Vizcaino was lost for the season while the majority of the arms on which the Braves leaned in 2018 have struggled through poor seasons. Dan Winkler‘s ERA is north of 6.00. Shane Carle is in Triple-A. Jesse Biddle is now a Mariner. Atlanta’s most consistent reliever has been Luke Jackson, whom they outrighted off the 40-man roster on three different occasions in 2018. Currently, the Braves hold the second Wild Card spot in the NL and are three games back of the division-leading Phillies. General manager Alex Anthopoulos famously talked about the “flexibility” they had after going the bargain route in right field by re-signing Nick Markakis, but they’ve yet to actually take advantage of that payroll space.
- Brewers: It’s possible that the Brewers should be included in the previous “close to their payroll limit” section, but they were linked to Kimbrel frequently late in Spring Training. Milwaukee’s payroll is at $122MM, which isn’t much relative to other clubs but is $18MM more than the Brewers had spent on a single season prior to 2019. The bullpen hasn’t been the same juggernaut it was last season, in part due to the loss of Corey Knebel for the season (Tommy John surgery). A Kimbrel/Josh Hader/Jeremy Jeffress trio in the late innings sounds formidable, to be sure. The question is whether the Brewers would be willing to push an already record payroll to the point where they’d outbid the rest of the field.
- Dodgers: With the exception of Kenley Jansen, the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers just haven’t spent at the top of the market at any position in free agency. That said, his price has to be down from the offseason, and the winter pickup of Joe Kelly hasn’t panned out, thus leaving L.A. with a mediocre relief corps. They’d likely pay a 20 percent luxury tax on some of the money it’d take to land Kimbrel. A team with pockets this deep and a pedestrian bullpen makes the fit logical in a vacuum, even if context suggests that it’s not likely.
- Phillies: Like the Braves, the Phillies have been one of the longest-mentioned fits for Kimbrel. The need for a high-end reliever in Philadelphia might be greater now than at any point over the past caliber year; as we explored recently, the Phillies have nearly an entire bullpen’s worth of quality relievers on the injured list. A resurgent Hector Neris and sophomore Seranthony Dominguez are leading the charge in the late innings, but there’s certainly room to add Kimbrel to this injury-ravaged relief unit. That said, there are still indications that Philly is only interested in Kimbrel on a one-year deal, and that’s probably not going to cut it.
- Rays: Winners of six straight games and owners of MLB’s third-best run differential, the Rays have been one of the game’s best overall teams through the end of May. They’re a half game behind the Yankees in the AL East and are firmly in control of the top AL Wild Card spot as of this writing. Payroll concerns are always going to dominate discussions regarding the Rays, but they entered the year at just $60MM in payroll — one year after they opened the season at $76MM. Those sums may induce laughter from fans of big-market clubs, but the 2019 Rays roster is no joke. When they’re in this close a race with the Yankees for the division crown, every win is vital. The difference between a Wild Card play-in and a guaranteed ALDS berth is monumental, and Kimbrel should help them keep pace.
- Twins: Minnesota managed to reduce its payroll while still adding the likes of Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Schoop — Joe Mauer‘s retirement and the expiration of Ervin Santana‘s contract helped — which set them up as a credible threat to the Indians. They’ve been more than a credible threat, though, racing out to one of the best records in baseball and opening an enormous 10-game lead in the AL Central. Adding Kimbrel would push the Twins to a new franchise-record payroll, but not by that much; for a team that is now selling out Target Field after years of futility (excepting their 2017 Wild Card run), there’s every reason to make an aggressive move. Back in January, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine spoke of “investing appropriately” and “striking” while the window is “wide open.” Whether Kimbrel is the “appropriate” investment is up to their discretion, but it’s hard to imagine a more open window than a 10-game lead in a division with three rebuilding clubs.
3 Minor League Signings Helping Drive Rangers’ Offense
For Major League Baseball teams, there is essentially no risk in signing a player to a minor league contract. Cognizant of that, the Rangers were aggressive on the non-guaranteed market in the offseason, inking 20 players to minors contracts. Two months into the regular season, three of those players – Hunter Pence, Logan Forsythe and Danny Santana – have helped lead the Rangers’ offense to the game’s third-most runs (306) and a 10th-place ranking in wRC+ (103).
Pence, the most proven member of the trio, starred for much of his career with the Astros and Giants before recent struggles forced him to settle for a cheap pact with the Rangers. But the longtime outfielder looked done during the previous two years in San Francisco, especially when he hit .226/.258/.332 (59 wRC+) with four home runs and a .106 ISO in 248 plate appearances last season. To his credit, though, Pence spent the offseason working to turn things around, as he explained to Jessica Kleinschmidt of NBC Sports California in December. You may have scoffed at his efforts back then, chalking them up to a washed-up player grasping at straws, but it now looks as if Pence has discovered the Fountain of Youth during his age-36 season (Pence de Leon?).
Through 153 trips to the plate with the Rangers, Pence has slashed .295/.346/.619 with 11 homers and a .324 ISO. He has already given the Rangers 1.1 fWAR after combining for minus-0.2 with the Giants from 2017-18. Pence’s revival certainly doesn’t look like a product of luck or ballpark – there’s nothing abnormal in his batting average on balls in play or K/BB ratio, and he has logged far better numbers outside hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.
Pence is pulling more pitches, hitting more fly balls and making better contact, all of which has helped opened the door to his power resurgence, while swinging and missing less and chasing fewer pitches out of the zone. Pence’s average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives sits at a strong 96.6 mph, up from 91.5 in 2018, and his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA has spiked from .255/.267 to .401/.387. In the xwOBA department, Pence has gone from hitting like Joey Rickard to resembling Juan Soto. It’s an amazing one-year turnaround.
If there’s one knock on the 2019 version of Pence, it’s that he has largely been limited to the designated hitter spot at his advanced age. Forsythe, on the other hand, has spent the season in the field, registering most of his appearances at first base but also playing at least five games at shortstop, third and second. Now 32, Forsythe was one of baseball’s most valuable second basemen with the Rays from 2015-16, but he began falling off the next season and then cratered last year between the Twins and Dodgers. It looks as if Forsythe’s back after joining Texas on a deal in late February, though. Like Pence, a fellow right-handed hitter, Forsythe has offered better production outside of Arlington while posing a legitimate threat against pitchers of either handedness.
Forsythe has opened his Rangers career with a line of .309/.414/.485 (136 wRC+) and 1.2 fWAR in 163 attempts, far outdoing the minus-0.2 he posted in that category last season. An unsustainable .406 BABIP has aided Forsythe’s cause, but he has made real strides otherwise. While Forsythe’s power hasn’t been sensational (three homers, .176 ISO), he’s well ahead of his paltry 2018 output in that regard (two HRs, .059 ISO in 416 PA). As with Pence, a greater emphasis on pulling and elevating the ball has led to Forsythe’s uptick in the power department. His average exit velocity has climbed from 89.6 mph on liners/flies last year to 92.8 this season. Forsythe’s also swinging at far fewer pitches than ever outside the strike zone. Those factors have assisted in a strong .390/.362 wOBA/xwOBA, an enormous step up from the .274/.277 Forsythe recorded in 2018.
And then there’s the 28-year-old Santana, who was a 3.9-fWAR player with the Twins during a 430-PA debut in 2014. Until this season, that looked like a total fluke (and perhaps it still does). Santana combined for minus-2.3 fWAR from 2015-18 with the Twins and Braves, though he’s back above water this year. Granted, with a 0.6 fWAR over 125 trips to the plate, Santana’s no world-beater. Still, that’s more than the Rangers could have reasonably expected when they took a flier on Santana in December. Since then, the switch hitter has slashed .296/.339/.478 (107 wRC+) with four HRs and six steals in 125 PA, also showing off his defensive flexibility by appearing multiple times at first, second, short and in center field.
Santana, however, could have a tougher time than Pence and Forsythe maintaining his numbers. In fact, they’ve already started to drop over the past month. The fact that he’s running ugly strikeout and walk rates (4.0 percent versus 29.6) and enjoying a .400 BABIP doesn’t offer a ton of hope going forward. Beyond that, Santana’s struggling against left-handed pitchers and hitting noticeably worse on the road. That said, there’s little difference between Santana’s wOBA (.347) and xwoBA (.341).
Should Santana continue to impress the Rangers through the season, they’ll have a chance to keep him via arbitration for the next two years. Otherwise, they could easily say goodbye to him. Meanwhile, Pence and Forsythe – two impending free agents – could either stick with the surprising Rangers (27-27) through the season if they’re in contention or emerge as summer trade chips if the team falls out of the race. Texas is in a win-win situation with all three of these minor league pickups, which is surely what general manager Jon Daniels hoped for when he added them over the winter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
James McCann: Offensive Force?
A few weeks into last offseason, the White Sox parted with their 2017-18 primary catcher, Omar Narvaez, sending him to the Mariners for reliever Alex Colome on Nov. 30. The White Sox found Narvaez’s replacement a couple weeks later when they signed former Tigers starting backstop James McCann to a one-year, $2.5MM deal. In other words, a franchise mired in a 10-year playoff drought paid a minimal cost for an unexciting (maybe even bad) major leaguer. You’re forgiven if you couldn’t have cared less at the time.
Five-plus months later, Chicago’s decision to buy low on McCann looks like one of one of the shrewdest of the winter. The 28-year-old has been an absolute hitting machine as a member of the White Sox, with whom he has slashed .346/.384/.523 (145 wRC+) in 138 plate appearances. Based on wRC+, McCann has been in the same league as franchise catchers Gary Sanchez (154) and Willson Contreras (152) in overall offensive production. It’s a stunning rise for McCann, whom the Tigers non-tendered in November in lieu of paying a projected $3.5MM in arbitration.
McCann can now take solace in the fact that he has been a revelation with division-rival Chicago this year while Detroit’s catchers have been dreadful. That said, the Tigers weren’t crazy for letting him go. McCann was a useful regular for the Tigers once – in 2017 – but still didn’t manage world-beating offensive production that year. His Tigers tenure, which spanned from 2014-18, concluded with a .240/.288/.366 line (76 wRC+) and minus-0.2 fWAR in 1,646 trips to the plate. That’s bad. Defensively, McCann did throw out between 30 and 45 percent of base runners in each of his seasons in the Motor City. That’s good. But he floundered as a pitch framer and blocker. That’s bad.
What we know is that McCann has thrived as a White Sox after he did no such thing as a Tiger. The question is whether he’s born anew in a different uniform, if it’s just a two-month blip or something in between. First of all, he’s not going to sustain this kind of offensive production. He didn’t really walk in Detroit and hasn’t in Chicago either, having recorded rates in the 5 percent range with both teams. McCann’s also not going to keep up a .435 batting average on balls in play, especially considering his lifetime mark is .309. Plus, as someone who currently has four home runs and has never topped 13 in a full season, he won’t make up for his inevitable drop in average with a significant power surge.
While the above paragraph paints a bleak picture, all hope isn’t lost for McCann, who has cut his strikeout and chase rates by roughly 3 percent and elevated his contact rate by about 2 percent. He has also made more meaningful contact, evidenced in part by a noticeable rise in isolated power. McCann put up an unimposing .126 ISO with the Tigers, including a woeful .094 last year, though he’s running a career-high .183 in the category this season. FanGraphs indicates McCann has slashed his soft contact rate by almost 6 percent, while Statcast shows his average exit velocity has hopped from 87.5 mph to 90.5. Statcast also credits McCann with a .347 expected weighted on-base average. That’s a hefty 48 points below his real wOBA (.395), but it’s still 24 points above average and more than respectable for a catcher.
The right-handed McCann has done a lot of his 2019 damage against same-sided pitchers, which is noteworthy in his case because they’ve typically stymied him. When Chicago added McCann, it couldn’t have expected him to suddenly prove capable of handling righties. He has so far, though, and his offensive strides have come with improved defense. Not only has McCann continued to stop would-be base thieves at a high rate (35 percent), but he has been a scratch overall defensive player after grading out as one of the league’s worst catchers in 2018, according to Baseball Prospectus. If that’s not enough, McCann has developed a solid rapport with potential ace Lucas Giolito.
Adding everything up, it’s clear the McCann signing has worked out brilliantly for the White Sox. He has already given Chicago 1.6 fWAR, double his previous career high, and could remain in the team’s plans beyond this season. Once the 2019 campaign finishes, the Sox will have to decide whether to tender McCann a contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility. It would be a no-brainer decision right now. However, in the seemingly improbable event McCann’s overall production careens off a cliff, the club will be able to move on without any damage.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs
If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.
Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018. The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…
Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):
Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.
Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):
Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.
Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):
Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark – while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.
Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):
Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.
Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):
We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.
J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):
Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Last Season’s 2 Best Closers Have Fallen Off
Right-handers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen were unquestionably the two best closers in baseball in 2018. And unless you want to make an argument for dominant Brewers lefty Josh Hader, Diaz and Treinen were likely the game’s top two relievers period. However, a couple months into the 2019 season, they’re no longer running roughshod over their competition.
In what proved to be his final season in Seattle, where he burst on the scene in 2016, Diaz tossed 73 1/3 innings and notched a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with an eye-popping 57 saves in 61 attempts. Along the way, the flamethrower ranked fourth among relievers in K/9 (15.22) and 15th in BB/9 (2.09), leading to the league’s fourth-best K/BB ratio (7.29). He also trailed only Hader in swinging-strike percentage (18.9).
Despite Diaz’s incredible performance, the retooling Mariners deemed him expendable in the offseason. Seattle sent the 25-year-old to the Mets in an earth-shattering December trade that saved the M’s a ton of money and improved their farm system.
No doubt, the Mets expected Diaz to be the driving force behind a much-improved bullpen in 2019. To this point of the season, Diaz has perhaps been the Mets’ premier late-game option, but their bullpen has been a weak unit overall. For his part, the 25-year-old Diaz has been closer to the pitcher he was in 2017, when he was good but not otherworldly.
Diaz’s most recent outing, which came Wednesday against the Dodgers, surely counts among the worst of his career. He entered the game with an 8-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning and proceeded to allow six straight base runners amid a stunning collapse. Diaz yielded four earned runs on five hits (two home runs) and an intentional walk in what turned into a 9-8 loss for New York. The only batter he retired, Alex Verdugo, hit the game-winning sacrifice fly. The defeat left Diaz with a 3.22 ERA after he entered it with a 1.64 mark.
It’s easy to look at the shiny ERA Diaz had prior to Wednesday and attribute it to one bad performance. Similarly, it doesn’t take a lot of effort to say his .347 batting average on balls in play has been unlucky. However, the reality is that there are concerns across the board.
Diaz’s FIP (3.99) is up almost a run and a half since last year, while his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has risen from .214/.215 to .324/.289. It doesn’t help that Diaz’s strikeout rate has plummeted. After fanning 44.3 percent of batters in his Seattle swan song, Diaz has fallen to 36.1 in his introduction to New York. Beyond that, Diaz’s swinging-strike, line drive, hard/soft contact and chase rates have also gone in the wrong direction. He’s not keeping the ball on the ground as much either, which has led to newfound home run troubles. Diaz has already given up as many HRs as last season (five) through 51 fewer innings (22 1/3), and he’s now halfway to 2018 in blown saves (two).
Treinen, who made good on 38 of 43 attempts in 2018, has joined Diaz in failing on two tries so far this season. The 30-year-old may have been even better than Diaz in ’18, when he compiled a ridiculous 0.78 ERA/1.82 FIP across 80 1/3 innings. Treinen’s strikeout and walk rates (11.2 and 2.35 per nine) were excellent, albeit not as great as Diaz’s, as was his 51.9 percent groundball rate. But Treinen, who has significantly cut back his sinker and slider usage, is at 9.55, 3.95 and 40.3 in those categories this season. Meanwhile, Treinen’s ERA/FIP is up to 3.62/3.87 and his wOBA/xwOBA against has shot from .187/.214 to .313/.298.
What are some of the factors behind Treinen’s drop-off? Well, the .230 BABIP batters logged against him a year ago has moved to a more reasonable .306. At the same time, he’s not stranding as many base runners, having gone from an 85.9 percent left-on-base rate to 79.9. Furthermore, the right-hander is generating fewer swinging strikes, getting fewer out-of-zone swings and giving up more hard contact than he did last season. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Treinen, like Diaz, has had more difficulty keeping the ball in the park. Just two balls left the yard then against Treinen, who has allowed three through 27 1/3 innings in 2019.
While Diaz and Treinen have recorded disappointing numbers this season, the letdown is largely as a result of the utter brilliance they displayed last year. Any team in the majors would still take either hurler, though their current clubs – both of which are playoff hopefuls – may need more from them if they’re going to earn postseason bids.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Importance Of Scott Kingery
In a spirited attempt to repair their position player group and snap a seven-year playoff drought, the Phillies added four new regulars to their lineup during the offseason. The big-ticket acquisitions of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura left the club with just four holdovers. Of the returning quartet, only first baseman Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have produced in 2019. On the other hand, this has been a horrid year for third baseman Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera, who didn’t exactly comprise a confidence-inspiring pair entering the campaign.
The 26-year-old Franco broke into the league in earnest in 2015, when he looked like a long-term core piece in the making during an 80-game, 335-plate appearance debut. Since then, though, success has been hard to come by for Franco. He turned in an 0-for-4 performance in a loss to the Cardinals on Thursday, dropping his batting line to an inept .215/.281/.393 through 210 tries this year. Franco’s 63 wRC+ ranks as the majors’ eighth-worst mark among 167 qualifying hitters.
While 2019 has gone poorly for Franco, it has been even worse for Herrera. Not only has Herrera failed on the field, where he has hit .222/.268/.341 (67 wRC+) in 139 trips to the plate, but he’s amid a troubling situation off it. The league placed Herrera on administrative leave Tuesday after he was arrested Monday on a charge of simple assault relating to a domestic violence incident.
It’s too early to jump to conclusions on Herrera’s arrest at this point, but we can judge him on what he has done between the lines. The fact is the 27-year-old’s production has been a letdown since 2018. Before then, he was a quality player who earned a five-year, $30.5MM extension from the franchise in 2016.
The Phillies have given Franco and Herrera plenty of rope so far in their careers, but they’re looking less and less like answers at their respective positions. And Philadelphia is no longer a rebuilding team – it’s in first place in the NL East, which figures to be a multi-team dogfight through September – meaning it must consider making moves to improve at third and in center. Luckily for the club, it may have an in-house solution for one of those spots in utility player Scott Kingery.
The 25-year-old Kingery opened the season as a reserve, but he has taken on a prominent role rotating between the hot corner and center since he returned from a month-long stay on the injured list. Going back to his May 19 activation, Kingery has started nine of the Phillies’ 11 games. Now, if he proves capable of performing like a legit full-timer, he’d take some of the pressure off executives Matt Klentak and Andy MacPhail heading into the July 31 trade deadline.
Philadelphia believes in Kingery, evidenced by the six-year, $24MM guarantee it gave him in March 2018. Kingery was a top 100 prospect at that point, but he had never even taken a major league at-bat. That inexperience was on display during a rough rookie season for Kingery, who struggled to a .226/.267/.338 line (62 wRC+) with 126 strikeouts against 24 walks in 484 tries.
So far, the sophomore version of Kingery is trumping his Year 1 numbers through 72 PA. However, his .328/.375/.567 slash (148 wRC+) looks as if it’s built on a house of cards. Having drawn a meager three walks against 20 strikeouts, Kingery is getting by on a sure-to-plummet .432 batting average on balls in play and a power surge that also looks unlikely to last. With three homers, Kingery’s fly balls are leaving the yard at an 18.8 percent rate – a figure he only approached once in the minors (in 2017). As a Double-A player that season, Kingery recorded a .295 ISO. Coming into this year, that was the only time Kingery had even neared a .200 ISO, let alone blown by it. With that in mind, don’t bet on Kingery maintaining his current ISO (.239).
Although there are reasons for pessimism regarding Kingery’s hot start, that’s not to say he can’t be a valuable regular for the Phillies now or in the future. It would be a colossal boon for the club if it happened immediately, considering its remade offense has been closer to middle of the pack than great this season. That’s largely because of Franco, Herrera and corner outfielder Nick Williams, who have combined for minus-1.1 fWAR in 414 PA. The Phillies can’t count on those three – nor can they expect a breakthrough from unproven outfielder Roman Quinn, 26, or McCutchen to man his old stomping grounds in center consistently – leaving the onus on Kingery to assert himself in a full-time role. If Kingery falls on his face, the Phillies may have to deal with the burden of finding two new regulars leading up to the deadline.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Trade Candidate: Trey Mancini
As the Orioles begin what will be a lengthy rebuilding process, it’s fair to assume they’re open to offers on virtually any player on their roster with a modicum of Major League experience. This extends even to players like Trey Mancini, who under some circumstances would seem like a potential building block.
Mancini burst onto the scene with an impressive 2017 campaign before seeing his production drop to sub-replacement levels (-0.2 fWAR) in 2018. Aside from minor improvements to his swinging strike rate and walk rate, Mancini’s numbers dropped pretty much across the board in every major batting category from 2017 to 2018. This could be attributed to an old-fashioned sophomore slump as pitchers got a book on a young hitter, or perhaps Mancini suffered from the added mental stress of being caught up in the Orioles’ disastrous 115-loss season.
Perhaps the most telling number, however, was Mancini’s .285 BABIP in 2018. It marked a big decline from his .352 BABIP in 2017, which had a particularly deleterious effect on a player who had such extreme trouble keeping the ball off the ground. Mancini’s 52.9% ground-ball rate over the 2017-18 seasons was the sixth-highest total of any qualified player in that stretch, so when Mancini’s grounders weren’t sneaking through the infield with as much regularity, it had a significant impact on his production. This issue wasn’t a new one for Mancini, who also had high grounder rates throughout his minor league career.
Almost two months into the 2019 season, however, Mancini has done a much better job of driving the ball through the air. His grounder rate this season stands at only 38.3%, plus a .342 BABIP indicates that Mancini’s lesser number of ground balls are sneaking through the infield. Beyond just getting more good luck from the BABIP gods, Mancini’s 25.3% line drive rate, 36.4% fly ball rate, and 37.7% hard-hit ball rates are all career bests, and his .365 xwOBA is a virtual match for his .369 wOBA.
These underlying factors are a big reason why the 2019 version of Mancini is looking like a more sustainably productive player than the the 2017 model. The 27-year-old is hitting .295/.345/.529 with 10 home runs, a 128 wRC+ and 132 OPS + through 229 plate appearances. With this production looking up, Baltimore could decide now is the time to sell high on what could be its best position-player trade chip.
It’s worth noting, of course, that the Orioles are under no pressure to trade Mancini by July 31 — he isn’t eligible for arbitration until this coming offseason, meaning that he is under team control through the 2022 season. It also isn’t totally out of the question that the O’s hang onto Mancini altogether, though the club’s timeline for a return to contention doesn’t really fit Mancini’s age and skillset.
Over his two-plus seasons in the big leagues, Mancini has played 793 innings as a first baseman and 1808 2/3 innings as a corner outfielder, despite being drafted as a first baseman out of Notre Dame in 2013 and never seeing any outfield action over his four minor league seasons. With Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo holding down the first base/DH spots, the Orioles deployed Mancini in the outfield as a way of getting his bat into the lineup, with predictably subpar defensive results.
Mancini has a -12.9 UZR/150 and minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved as an outfielder, making him an ill fit at the position now, let alone in the future. He has been seeing more time at first base recently with Davis on the IL, and there’s really no reason for Baltimore to not continue playing Mancini at his original position going forward; he wouldn’t be the first player to take his hitting to another level after being relieved from a troublesome defensive situation.
While Orioles GM Mike Elias surely hopes he can have the club on track in shorter order, the fact remains that the O’s might still not be full-fledged contenders by the 2023 season, given the extensive nature of the team’s rebuild. At that point, Mancini will be in his age-31 season and in all likelihood a full-time first baseman/DH, making it a better bet that he will be starting into a decline phase just as the Orioles as a whole plan to be rising up.
Waiting for the winter to explore Mancini trades would theoretically expand Baltimore’s market for the young slugger, since dealing him now would limit the O’s to only contending teams….or would it? Mancini’s extra years of control make him an interesting option for teams who might be riding the fence between being a pure buyer or a pure seller. Mancini could fit on a team like the White Sox, who aren’t contenders this season but surely have an eye towards taking a step forward in 2020 (especially now that Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, and Lucas Giolito are all breaking out).
Holding off on a Mancini deal also carries risk beyond just the normal concerns of a potential dropoff. As we’ve seen over the last two offseasons, teams are putting less and less value on defensively-limited players and first base/DH types, no matter how big a bat they might be swinging. Nicholas Castellanos (a free agent this winter) has far less team control than Mancini, but is almost exactly the same age and a much more established MLB hitter, yet the Tigers have had no luck shopping Castellanos for over a year.
Plus, once the offseason hits and the free agent market opens, teams with a first base or corner outfield vacancy might prefer to just sign a productive veteran at a relatively low price rather than give up prospects to Baltimore for Mancini. This could open the door to a more immediate trade, as the urgency of a pennant race might encourage teams to give up some solid minor league talent for a quality bat like Mancini, with his years of control as a significant bonus.
Looking at teams who could fit as trade partners for Mancini, I considered both contenders and non-contenders (who were planning to be competitive sooner rather than later) with both outfield/first base needs for 2019 and longer-term needs at first base going forward. More teams could certainly emerge as injuries, slumps, and other factors impact this summer’s deadline business, though a few clubs stand out as possible candidates at the moment.
Astros: Mancini would help them now, though Houston isn’t exactly hurting for bats, and the Astros have several interesting young names (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker) waiting in the wings.
Red Sox: Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce are pending free agents, and J.D. Martinez could join them if he chooses to opt out of the final three years and $62.5MM on his contract. Boston’s first base spot has been seen as a potential eventual landing spot for either Rafael Devers or Michael Chavis, though those two emerging stars may end up at third base and second base, and prospect Bobby Dalbec may be at least a year away. A case can be made for the Red Sox to pursue Mancini at the deadline, though with JDM, Moreland, and Pearce all still in the fold, Boston is more likely to wait until the offseason to address its first base/DH situation.
Nationals: On paper, Washington fits since Ryan Zimmerman‘s $18MM club option isn’t likely to be picked up for 2020. In practice, all the bad blood between the Nationals and Orioles stemming from the ongoing legal dispute over broadcast rights makes any sort of trade between the two Beltway rivals next to impossible.
White Sox: As mentioned earlier, Mancini could fit nicely into an emerging White Sox lineup. Yonder Alonso is unlikely to have his club option exercised, and Jose Abreu is slated for free agency at the moment (though the Sox certainly want to keep Abreu on the south side). If Abreu does stay, he and Mancini would provide a lot of pop from the first base/DH positions.
Mariners: Something of a similar case to the White Sox, as Seattle also aren’t contenders now, but their quest to “re-imagine” their roster wasn’t seen as a long-term endeavor. Edwin Encarnacion could himself be traded by the deadline, and if he does stay, the M’s are more likely to buy out his 2020 option for $5MM than exercise it for $20MM. The surprising Daniel Vogelbach has definitely slugged his way into Seattle’s 2020 plans, so he could join Mancini splitting time between first base and designated hitter. Jay Bruce is also likely to still be in the mix barring a trade, though Bruce’s presence wouldn’t stop GM Jerry Dipoto from picking up a player like Mancini.
Rangers: Between Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, and even top prospect Willie Calhoun, Texas already has multiple players who might be best suited for DH duty, and Ronald Guzman is still young and controllable at first base. Texas also doesn’t have a deep farm system, and might not be willing to meet Baltimore’s asking price for Mancini, or maybe even any team’s price tag on any notable midseason upgrade since the Rangers weren’t fully committing to contending this year. Nevertheless, the surprising Rangers are maybe an interesting outside-the-box candidate for Mancini since the team has stayed in the wild card race. Acquiring Mancini is both a go-for-it type of move, while also serving as a long-term piece. Mancini would also give Texas some much-needed right-handed lineup balance.
Brewers: Only two teams have received less bWAR from the first base position this season than Milwaukee, Jesus Aguilar‘s breakout 2018 season has given way to some major struggles this year, while Eric Thames‘ hot start has given way to an ice-cold May. It would be a bold move to see the Brewers move on entirely from Aguilar less than a year after his big season, though the club doesn’t have much margin for error in a tight NL Central race. Like Texas, the Brew Crew also doesn’t have a lot of minor league talent to spare in trades.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
The Downside Of Being The 26th Man
In theory, the “26th man” doubleheader rule that MLB implemented in the 2012-16 wave of collective bargaining should work for all parties involved. Teams get an extra player, frequently a pitcher, to help manage the workload of the day’s pair of games. The player promoted to the big leagues gets a day of MLB service time and picks up a day of big league pay, in addition to the opportunity to make a nice impression on his organization. If the player in question is a pitcher, other members of the staff are spared from having to pitch on short rest and/or in extended outings.
It all sounds good! Well, it sounds good to most players. But what about the rare instances in which a player promoted to the Major Leagues as a 26th man ends up incurring an injury during that game? As Reds left-hander Cody Reed demonstrated this week, the rule isn’t exactly perfect.
Reed was summoned to serve as Cincinnati’s 26th man in a Monday twin bill with the Pirates and performed well, giving the Reds a pair of scoreless relief innings in the second game of the day. In doing so, he continued an impressive year that has seen him pitch 20 2/3 innings of 2.61 ERA ball in Triple-A and another 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball in the Majors. Unfortunately, he also sustained a strained medial collateral ligament in his left knee. The Reds announced that Reed won’t throw for the next 10 to 14 days, which obviously meant a trip to the injured list.
The problem for Reed, though, is that because he was not technically on the 25-man roster as the 26th man in a doubleheader, he’ll recover from that injury on the minor league injured list rather than the Major League injured list. Logic would seemingly dictate that a player injured while performing in a Major League game would rehab that injury while receiving the benefits of the MLB IL — that is, service time and MLB pay. That won’t be the case for Reed or future players who are injured while serving as the 26th man, though.
It may not seem like a major distinction, but consider the discrepancy between the prorated Major League minimum salary and the monthly salaries that a players make in Triple-A. Reed is fortunate in the sense that he has enough big league service time to be on a decent split contract; he’ll earn $145K in the minors this season versus $565K in the Majors. (A player with less big league time or no big league time would not be earning as much.)
That’s a fairly sizable difference between what he’d earn in the Majors versus the minors — particularly for a player who has yet to establish himself as a big leaguer. If he requires a couple of throwing sessions after his shutdown period, he could be out for three weeks or upwards of a month. At that point, the prorated MLB salary would top his prorated Triple-A salary by anywhere from $40-60K.
To be clear, the Reds aren’t doing anything wrong by placing him on the minor league injured list and actually didn’t have a choice. That’s the way the rules were bargained. As a concession for allowing a 26th player to be brought up for a doubleheader and earn a day of service and big league pay, it was agreed that there would be no technical transaction associated with the move:
(dd) Any Club that expands its roster for these purposes must return to a 25-man Active Roster immediately after the conclusion of the second game (i.e., a post-game roster adjustment). The recall and waiver requirements and limitations contained in these Rules shall not apply to the 26th Player if returned to his previous Minor League club for these purposes. Moreover, a player’s addition to the 25-man Active roster for these purposes shall not affect the expiration of any 10-day period that may be required by Rule 11(b)(1). The return of the player to his previous Minor League club shall not be considered an assignment (i.e., to a Minor League club, an optional assignment under these Rules, or otherwise). A Club may return to a 25-man Active Roster by removing a player other than the 26th Player only if the Club’s addition of the 26th Player complied with all applicable Rules and the Basic Agreement, and the Club’s subsequent removal of the other player from its roster complied with all applicable Rules and the Basic Agreement (and both of those transactions will not be covered by the exception created by this Rule 2(c)(2)(A)(ii)).
(ee) The 26th Player shall be paid one day of Major League salary and shall receive one day of Major League service. Such day shall not be counted for purposes of counting days on option pursuant to the Articles XIX(E) and XXI(B) of the Basic Agreement or Rule 11(c).
In essence, the rules stipulate that a player must be on the 40-man roster to serve as the 26th man but is not technically recalled from the minors when he does so. That’s important to note; were it not for that distinction, Reed would not even have been eligible to pitch in the Majors that day. He’d been optioned down just eight days prior and, as such, wasn’t eligible for recall under normal circumstances. The Reds couldn’t even have sent someone else down if they’d wanted to, as keeping Reed up would not have “complied with all applicable Rules and the Basic Agreement.” In that regard, the quirks of this rule both benefited Reed by allowing him to be in the Majors on Monday and hurt him by disallowing him from rehabbing on the Major League injured list.
This is likely the precise type of scenario that concerned owners when pushing for these stipulations during negotiations. A more extreme example could see a player called up to make a one-off start in the nightcap of a doubleheader only to blow out his arm and require Tommy John surgery. That’d turn what might’ve been a roughly $3K spot start for ownership into a $500K+ salary on the injured list for the majority of the season (in addition to the accompanying service time).
That owners sought protection against these injury scenarios is understandable, but it’s still counter-intuitive that a player injured in a Major League game would be deprived of the benefits afforded to those on a big league roster. Had Reed simply been called up to the 25-man roster for a one day to lengthen the ‘pen in a normal game and incurred this exact same injury, he’d go on the MLB IL and receive that service time and salary. That’s a risk that clubs run any other time they dip into their farm system for a one-day depth move, but it strangely doesn’t apply when playing multiple games in the same day.
Perhaps this is much ado about something that occurs so rarely that it’s not worth fretting over, but Cody Reed probably doesn’t think so.
Should The Braves Trade Ender Inciarte?
Well, you see the question in the headline. Should they? In brief, in my opinion: no.
This is the sort of query we get a lot from readers. When there’s depth at a position, it’s natural to wonder whether some of it could be used in a swap. We’ve been asked quite a bit about Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte, who struggled before hitting the injured list and has now perhaps been indirectly Wally Pipp’ed by exciting young slugger Austin Riley.
Thing is, Inciarte is no Pipp. When Pipp was eclipsed by Lou Gehrig, he was a 32-year-old first baseman mired in a slump after years of inconsistent offensive production. Inciarte? Ironically, his 63 OPS+ is a near-match to Pipp’s 62 OPS+ from that fateful 1925 season. Otherwise, they are nothing alike. Inciarte is a high-grade defensive outfielder and baserunner. Even if he’s a slightly below-average true-talent hitter, which seems like a fair characterization, he’s a valuable roster piece.
I admit it, the Pipp thing isn’t really even an apt analogy in the first place. But that only goes to prove the point on Inciarte.
Take a look at this Braves roster. Ronald Acuna is capable of playing center field and probably doing whatever else he happens to feel like on a baseball field. Nick Markakis is entrenched in right for the rest of the season and Riley’s bat isn’t coming out of the lineup unless and until MLB pitchers figure him out. On the reserve side, Matt Joyce has been a useful lefty bench bat; Charlie Culberson and Johan Camargo are infielders by trade.
Inciarte still fits just fine — quite nicely, in fact, especially given that Riley is still learning the outfield on the fly. Inciarte could enter late in games as a pinch-runner and/or defensive replacement for Riley, leaving the Braves with an excellent defensive alignment. And let’s not forget that Inciarte has a history of solid output as an everyday player. If there’s an injury or a sudden downturn, it’d be awfully nice to have him around.
Making a roster adjustment to accommodate him shouldn’t be too hard. Joyce is a bit of a luxury for a team that has so many firm regulars. He has been tasked with a limited role, serving mostly as a pinch-hitter and logging only 35 1/3 innings in the field. It’s not as if Inciarte isn’t capable enough against right-handed pitching himself; for his career, he’s a .289/.339/.404 hitter with the platoon advantage.
If the Braves prefer to hang onto Joyce, and maintain their overall slate of players, they can option down Camargo. Heck, Culberson is hitting like he’d belong on one of Gehrig’s old teams, so expanding his role would make sense regardless. With Riley on the roster, there’s a ready-made third-base fill-in to spell Josh Donaldson. And Camargo is really struggling at the plate. He has seen an erosion in plate discipline. He’s putting the ball in the air more but not doing so with authority, leaving him with a meager power output (.111 ISO) and low BABIP (.244) that’s not entirely undeserved. There’s good reason to think he’ll ultimately improve upon his ugly .213/.261/.324 slash, but some time working out the kinks at Triple-A wouldn’t be the worst idea.
The future considerations also weigh in favor of keeping Inciarte around. If you’ll indulge my strained comparison yet further … well, Riley isn’t the Iron Horse. No, I’m not talking about the attributes of the players here. It’s about the nature of the roster situation. Riley wasn’t called up to replace Donaldson, who unlike Pipp has been both effective and healthy this year. But third base is Riley’s natural position. And Donaldson will be a free agent at season’s end. Markakis is also a free agent. Really, when you look ahead to the Braves’ 2020 roster, there’s just one sure thing in the outfield: Acuna.
Given that situation, keeping the respected and familiar Inciarte on hand would make a ton of sense. He could re-take his semi-regular role in center or platoon with a right-handed-hitting player (perhaps even Adam Duvall, who is still stuck at Triple-A). That’d help the Braves bridge the gap to Cristian Pache and other young talents.
Inciarte’s extension calls for a reasonable $7MM salary in 2020, with $8MM for the following year and a $9MM club option thereafter. That’s still a nice price tag for a thrifty Atlanta organization. If they swing some big trades, signings, and/or promotions and no longer wish to keep Inciarte, the contract ought still to be movable.
To be sure, moving Inciarte should (and no doubt would) be considered if there’s an appealing-enough offer. But making a trade now would likely mean selling low. It’d cut into the team’s depth and flexibility, this season and in the near future. And it probably isn’t necessary — or shouldn’t be, anyway. The club is still loaded with young talent, not all of which can be maintained easily within the constraints of MLB’s roster rules. And it shouldn’t need to shed salary (or avoid taking it on) to acquire any desired mid-season upgrades, since the team expressly reserved payroll capacity for the middle of the season.