MLBTR Originals

We checked in last night at some position players who have done a lot in 2018 to boost their earning capacity in their first trip through arbitration. Now, we’ll turn to the hurlers. Remember, as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz has divined, the touchstones for pitchers are innings, ERA, and accumulation of outcome-based stats — i.e., wins for starters. Swartz also frequently cites strikeouts as a factor in analyzing comparables.

Changes in the game may start to shift the arb earning metrics. But there’s still reason to believe the above-cited factors will continue to drive the process for the time being. Here are ten starting pitchers whose big seasons set the stage for strong 2019 salaries:

• Aaron Nola, Phillies: It has been a dominant season for Nola, who has racked up 16 wins through 193 2/3 innings of 2.42 ERA pitching to this point. That adds to an already-impressive compilation of stats at this early stage of his career. It doesn’t seem he’ll capture the Cy Young vote, despite numbers sufficient to support a case, but even a top-three finish would bolster his arb resume.
• Luis Severino, Yankees (likely Super Two): He hasn’t held up the pace all season long, but Severino is still carrying very appealing overall numbers — including those of the type that play well in arbitration. In 179 1/3 innings, he has a 3.46 ERA with 17 wins and 207 strikeouts. He has cracked 200 K’s now in consecutive seasons.
• Sean Manaea, Athletics (likely Super Two): A shoulder injury diminishes Manaea’s future outlook and could keep him on the shelf for all of 2019. But other than robbing him of his final five starts, it doesn’t detract from a strong set of arb stats. He has reached 160 2/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA and compiled a dozen wins. Though he doesn’t get many strikeouts, Manaea also provided his agents with an ace in the hole when he spun a no-hitter earlier this season.
• Matthew Boyd, Tigers (possible Super Two): If he can notch another win, Boyd will reach a ten-spot. But that’s not the only point in his favor from a surprisingly solid statistical line. Boyd is likely to finish with over 175 frames and could yet draw his ERA to below the 4.00 line; regardless of exactly how things turn out, he’ll be sturdy in both departments. And he has already topped 150 strikeouts. All told, he’s done a ton to advance his case after entering the season with an unappealing stat line. Of course, he’ll have to cross his fingers that 2.136 days of service is enough to qualify as a Super Two.
• Jon Gray, Rockies: The candidates from this point forward all have some major warts. In this case, it’s an ugly 5.07 ERA that doesn’t match Gray’s strong peripherals. He’ll be dinged for that, no doubt, but also rewarded for tallying double-digit wins and over 160 innings with more still there for the taking.
• Vince Velasquez, Phillies: He’s a big strikeout threat, but Velasquez has missed a few starts and his results don’t match his peripherals. Still, 139 innings of 4.53 ERA ball, with eight wins and 156 Ks, ought to play fairly well — particularly if he can pad that line over the final few outings of the season.
• Tyler Anderson, Rockies: Pitching at altitude doesn’t help, to be sure, but Anderson’s 4.82 ERA isn’t going to be viewed with much favor. He also has only six wins. Still, he’s up to 162 1/3 innings and will be compensated for that fact alone.
• Jose Urena, Marlins: Almost an exact match for Anderson, except with the benefit of a pitcher-friendly park, Urena hasn’t been wildly impressive but is in line to get paid. He’s thrown precisely as many frames as Anderson and worked to a 4.21 ERA with a paltry seven wins.
• Steven Matz, Mets: It hasn’t always been pretty, and the home runs are a problem, but Matz is currently through 140 frames with a 4.18 ERA. Though he only has five wins, the southpaw could yet end the season with 150 punchouts.
• Junior Guerra (likely Super Two): Guerra gets the final spot over a few similarly situated hurlers because he has done so much to help himself this year. After a rough 2017 season, the late-blooming hurler’s future was in doubt. But he has taken the ball for 26 starts and two relief appearances, throwing 137 2/3 total innings of 4.18 ERA ball. He’s only sitting on six wins and 132 strikeouts, but the bottom-line results are solid.
• Honorable Mention: The Tigers’ Michael Fulmer is another likely Super Two, but he is headed in the wrong direction after generally quality work to open his career. In terms of outcomes, Mike Montgomery of the Cubs certainly deserved a nod, but he has only compiled 111 2/3 innings to this point and his 3.87 ERA is accompanied by only 74 strikeouts. It’s the opposite situation for Orioles righty Dylan Bundy, who’ll almost certainly end up with over 160 innings with more than a strikeout per frame but is also surrendering more than five earned runs per nine owing to an out-of-control home run rate.

No MLB team would evaluate a player based only upon his accumulation of traditional, outcome-oriented statistics. But one of the game’s primary mechanisms for determining compensation — the arbitration process — remains rooted in the kinds of numbers that once dominated the backs of baseball cards.

On occasion, that disconnect can boost a player’s arb earning power beyond the valuation of his actual value. Not long ago, for instance, Chris Carter was non-tendered after leading the National League in home runs. More frequently, the good or bad fortune that can skew the arb results simply means more or less money in the pocket of a given player who is good enough that his team will pay up regardless.

MLBTR continues to model arbitration salaries every fall. While there’s always some tweaking, the basic principles remain as they were when the arb projections began back in 2011. For hitters, the key factors — as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz ascertained many moons ago — are playing time and power. The accumulation of plate appearances, home runs, and runs batted in are the biggest factors in driving earning power through arbitration, even if those are far from the only things that go into making for a productive baseball player.

While prior years’ performances certainly factor in, we’re focused here on which players have done the most in 2018 to boost their next salaries. It took a few assumptions regarding Super Two qualification to make the list, but they seem rather likely to be correct when that’s finalized.

On to the list:

• Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians: Remember when Lindor was supposed to be an outstanding defender and baserunner with a high-contact profile at the plate? Yeah, he has done all of that and topped thirty home runs for the second-straight season, elevating his game along with his arb earning power in an exceptional campaign. Lindor also has 120 runs and 23 steals.
• Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Dingers and defense are the calling card for Story, who’s also getting on base at a .340+ clip after a dip last year. Also helping his cause? Story has driven in over a hundred runs and swiped 26 bags, so there are plenty of counting stats for his agents to make into exhibits if it makes it to a hearing.
• Trea Turner, SS, Nationals: It’s a shortstop rout at the top. Though Turner has modest power, he’s approaching twenty dingers and forty steals. He also continues to play on a more-or-less everyday basis while hitting at the top of the lineup. Topping 700 plate appearances will be another notable milestone to cite.
• Javier Baez, INF, Cubs: Who could forget Javy? This author, evidently. Somehow, I neglected to include the emergent Cubs star on the initial version of this list despite his season to remember, which includes a .294/.328/.566 slash, 32 home runs, and a NL-leading 105 runs batted in through 590 plate appearances. That output will drive a rewarding first trip through the arbitration process over the offseason to come.
• Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins: While he doesn’t deliver eye-popping counting stats and isn’t playing a premium defensive position, Rosario has done plenty in 2018 to boost his arbitration case. Through 589 plate appearances entering play today, he had racked up a .288/.323/.475 slash with a healthy combination of 23 homers, 86 runs, and 76 runs batted in.
• Kyle Schwarber, OF, Cubs: Similarly, Schwarber doesn’t have a gaudy dinger tally for a corner outfielder and has even less to point to in the other counting areas. But he has put the ball over the fence 25 times in just 478 plate appearances.
• Michael Conforto, OF, Mets: It’s hard to fault Conforto too much for what has been a relatively disappointing season in light of his outstanding 2017 effort. Given his serious shoulder procedure, it’s probably a success in the aggregate. And from an arb perspective, he has done fine for himself. With 25 long balls and 69 RBI through a hefty 578 plate appearances, all before a big game tonight, Conforto will earn well.
• Max Kepler, OF, Twins (likely Super Two): Though he hasn’t broken out, Kepler keeps putting up solid numbers that’ll play fairly well in arbitration. Despite a poor .228 batting average, he could end the year with twenty bombs and six hundred total plate appearances.
• Chris Taylor, INF/OF, Dodgers: No, this hasn’t been quite the follow-up that might have been hoped for after an out-of-nowhere 2017 season. But Taylor is still hitting at an above-average rate and might reach 600 PAs. He  also has 16 homers and nine steals on the year and could get a boost for playing up the middle defensively.
• Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers: He has now reached twenty dingers and will likely top at least 75 RBI, so he has some of the counting stats you like to see. He’ll also accumulate over 500 plate appearances. Though Mazara hasn’t yet taken the next step, his volume of work will pay out rather well in the arbitration process.
• Honorable mention: Tommy Pham of the Rays has been solidly above-average, but his stats don’t jump off the page for a corner outfielder. His excellent 2017 season will boost his earnings, but that’s not quite what this post is about. In 2018, thus far, he’s carrying a .425 slug with 17 homers, a dozen steals, and 53 RBI. Meanwhile, Matt Davidson of the White Sox is a likely Super Two player who isn’t going to get to 500 plate appearances, so he falls short of making the list. But he still warrants mention since he’s a sneaky pick here as a player who many likely did not know was already at arb eligibility. With twenty homers this year, he’s one away from 50 total on his resume, so he should command a relatively healthy salary despite his low plate-appearance tally and less-than-stellar overall performance to this point in his career.

September isn’t usually a terribly active month on the trade front, as players acquired after August 31 are not eligible to join an acquiring club’s postseason roster. However, in recent years, we have seen some notable extensions hammered out in the final full month of the regular season (or shortly thereafter in early October). While most such agreements represent short-term arrangements with veterans — such as with the recent pact between Tyler Flowers and the Braves — every now and again there’s a more significant pact to be found. Could we see one go down in the coming weeks ? Here’s a look back at some notable late-season extensions over the past seven seasons…

2017

• Reds sign Tucker Barnhart to four-year, $16MM extension. — Easily the most notable pact of this grouping, this agreement gave the Reds control and cost certainty over a player who had emerged as a solid semi-regular performer. True, he’s a dreadful baserunner (by measure of Fangraphs’ BsR) and has not quite hit at a league-average rate. But Barnhart has steadily improved with the bat to the point that he’s better than the average backstop at the plate. He’s generally regarded as a quality defender, though he hasn’t been as good at controlling the running game this year and isn’t well-loved by framing metrics, though it’s certainly possible the Cincinnati pitching staff doesn’t help with those measures. Baseball Prospectus does grade him as the game’s best blocker of balls in the dirt, however, and there’s a case to be made that he’s a valuable handler of hurlers (see this recent story from Shannon Russell of The Athletic, though it requires a subscription).
• Blue Jays sign Marco Estrada to one-year, $13MM extension. — After two-straight sterling campaigns, Estrada was not quite at the top of his game in 2017. Still, the Jays bet that he’d return to form, staking a rather hefty payout to keep him for the ’18 campaign. Estrada has not performed as hoped, however, working to a 5.43 ERA in 124 1/3 innings. He has maintained a swinging-strike rate in his typical ten percent range, but is generating only 6.5 K/9 and allowing 1.8 homers per nine as of this writing.
• Padres sign Clayton Richard to a two-year, $6MM extension. — While the bottom-line results weren’t all that exciting, Richard gave the Friars nearly 200 frames in 32 outings last year. This contract seemed to represent solid value, particularly since the veteran lefty could not only occupy a rotation spot but also perhaps slide into a pen role if the Pads had a need. Unfortunately, he has been knocked around thus far in 2018, allowing 5.33 earned per nine over 158 2/3 innings.
• Braves sign Kurt Suzuki to one-year, $3.5MM extension. — In the midst of a breakout season at the plate, Suzuki agreed to re-up with the Atlanta organization. He has delivered solid value thus far in 2018, slashing .269/.328/.439 while swatting ten home runs in his 341 trips to the plate. With the Braves deciding this time around to pursue a deal with Flowers, the duo could split up in 2019 — though perhaps it’s still possible that a reunion (even via late-season extension) could be hammered out.

2016

• Marlins sign Martin Prado to a three-year, $40MM extension. — This is one of the biggest deals we have seen at this stage of the season. Unfortunately, it’s also one of the worst. The steady veteran had a long history of quality performance — solidly above-average hitting with good glovework — and had settled in as a leader in Miami. Of course, the contract also didn’t seem to represent much of a discount for a low-power player who was already 32 years of age. Prado has struggled with injuries quite a bit ever since, slashing just .246/.284/.326 in only 356 total plate appearances, which makes the backloaded deal look like a suboptimal investment.
• Braves sign Jim Johnson to a two-year, $10MM extension. — This early October deal set the Braves’ offseason course, as the club would go on to invest in several other veteran hurlers. Then 33, Johnson was wrapping up quite a strong season at the time of the extension, as he contributed 64 2/3 frames of 3.06 ERA ball with 9.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 along with a 55.0% groundball rate. Johnson was expected to function as Atlanta’s closer, keeping a veteran arm to the back of the pen while tamping down the arbitration earning power of younger pitchers. As it turned out, he struggled in 2017 and ended up having his salary dumped via trade by Atlanta. But he has logged solid results, posting a 3.62 ERA even as his strikeout rate (6.1 K/9), swinging-strike rate (7.3%) and groundball rate (50.6%) have trended down.

2015

• Marlins sign Ichiro Suzuki to a one-year, $2MM extension with a club option. — The Fish pushed a 41-year-old Ichiro harder than had been expected in 2015, and he responded with a less-than-useful campaign. But he was still valued as a bench presence, and it didn’t hurt that 2016 promised a run at 3,000 hits. Ichiro not only passed that milestone, but thrived in a more limited role that year, providing solid baserunning and glovework as well as a sturdy .291/.354/.376 batting line in 365 plate appearances. The Marlins ended up repeating the contractual move late in 2016, picking up the option and adding another option year. He hasn’t been nearly as productive at the plate in 2017, however.

2014

• Rockies sign Jorge De La Rosa to a two-year, $25MM extension. — De La Rosa saw a strong uptick in his fastball velocity in 2014, his second full season back from Tommy John surgery.  With an average of 92.3 mph on his heater versus 91.1 mph in 2013, De La Rosa pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent ground-ball rate in 160 2/3 innings of work at the time of the signing.  In 2015, the hurler pitched to a similar 4.17 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9, but his productivity fell off in the second year of the contract — which proved to be the end of his tenure in Colorado.

2013

• Padres sign Will Venable to a two-year, $8.5MM extension. — Venable had a breakout season in terms of his power production in 2013, so the Padres moved to lock in his remaining arbitration salaries, as further 20-homer/20-steal seasons would cause the price to soar. Unfortunately for the team, Venable’s decision to opt for security looks wise, in hindsight, as he batted just .224/.288/.325  in the first year of the deal and .248/.325/.356 in 2015.  Venable ended up moving to the Rangers in an August waiver trade and saw only minimal MLB time from that point forward.  He ultimately hung up his spikes and took a front-office gig with the Cubs in 2017.
• Marlins sign Greg Dobbs to a one-year, $1.75MM extension. — This extension drew plenty of public scrutiny, as Dobbs’ on-field performance in 2013 (.228/.303/.300) didn’t warrant the deal. It was eventually reported that owner Jeffrey Loria negotiated the deal without consulting former president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest. The Dobbs extension would be one of many stories that were referenced when describing the rift between Loria and Beinfest at the time of Beinfest’s dismissal.
• Giants sign Hunter Pence to a five-year, $90MM extension. — The most notable of any extension in this post, Pence was positioned to be one of the top free agents in the 2013-14 class, but he took what looked to be market value at the time to remain in San Francisco. As it turns out, the market for outfield bats was more aggressive than many had thought, with Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo landing seven-year deals worth $153MM and $131MM, respectively. In the first season of his deal, Pence hit .277/.332/.445 with 20 homers.  While he largely continued that output over the next two seasons of the pact, injuries sapped his playing time and Pence hit a wall in 2017 (his age-34 campaign).

2012

• Padres sign Chris Denorfia to a two-year, $4.25MM extension. — Denorfia’s strong season led former GM Josh Byrnes to lock in his final arb years with this modest extension, and Denorfia made the deal look like a good one in 2013 by hitting a solid .279/.337/.395 with a career-high 10 homers and excellent numbers against lefties. His production fell off in the contract’s second year, but the Padres’ triumvirate of interim GMs were still able to flip him to Seattle for outfielder Abraham Almonte and minor league righty Stephen Kohlscheen.
• Rangers sign Colby Lewis to a one-year, $2MM extension. — Lewis went down for the season in mid-July back in 2012, but he’d been enjoying a strong season and was expected to return for the 2013 campaign, making a $2MM salary a potential bargain for Texas. Unfortunately for the Rangers, Lewis had multiple setbacks and wasn’t able to take the hill the following season, but it’s not hard to see why they were interested in the low-risk deal; Lewis had turned in a 3.93 ERA over his previous 506 1/3 innings with the Rangers.

2011

• Cardinals sign Chris Carpenter to a two-year, $21MM extension. — Carpenter led the league in innings pitched in 2011 and had been generally excellent over the previous three seasons, prompting quite a bit of praise for this deal. He, in fact, restructured his contract and took what most expected to be less money in the long run, giving up a $15MM club option in favor of this two-year deal. Of course, Carpenter would sadly throw just 17 more innings in his career before injuries forced him to retire. While it looked good at the time, this deal didn’t pan out.
• Mets sign Tim Byrdak to a one-year, $1MM extension. — While the extension wasn’t particularly memorable and didn’t have a large impact on the 2012 Mets, Byrdak fired 30 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball and was a strong weapon against lefties, making him worth his modest salary.
• Cardinals sign Lance Berkman to a one-year, $12MM extension. — After a huge rebound campaign in 2011, Big Puma was rewarded with this contract, but he totaled just 97 plate appearances the following season due to knee injuries. He wasn’t able to recover with the Rangers in 2013 and retired following that season, putting an end to an excellent career.
• Marlins sign Omar Infante to a two-year, $8MM extension. — This contract paid dividends in the sense that Infante was largely excellent for the Marlins over the next half-season before being dealt to the Tigers along with Anibal Sanchez. That trade netted former top prospect Jacob Turner, catcher Rob Brantly and lefty Brian Flynn — a respectable haul at the time but one that now looks lackluster. Miami dealt Turner to the Cubs for a pair of low-level relievers last season, and Brantly was passed over in favor of Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
• White Sox sign Sergio Santos to a three-year, $8.25MM extension. — Signed at the end of a breakout season as the White Sox closer, Santos found himself traded to the Blue Jays for pitching prospect Nestor Molina that offseason. Molina didn’t do much and was outrighted by the ChiSox in 2014, but they probably feel fortunate not to have had to pay Santos the money he was guaranteed, as shoulder injuries led to a 5.23 ERA and just 51 innings pitched over the life of his three guaranteed years with Toronto.

The original version of this post was written by Steve Adams and Zach Links and ran in September 2015.

This is the final installment of a three-part series looking at players whose contracts include club options for 2019. In case you missed them, here are earlier pieces on position players and starting pitchers. We’ll close things out by examining relievers in similar situations.

Brandon Kintzler, RHP, Cubs – $10MM club option or $5MM player option: Thanks to his player option, Kintzler is in position to make at least $5MM in 2019. He’s lucky, too, because the 34-year-old’s $10MM club option looks rather steep in light of his 2018 output. Despite a lack of strikeouts, Kintzler has typically managed to limit earned runs by inducing a truckload of ground balls, but he has gone in the wrong direction on both counts this season. In 53 1/3 innings between Washington and Chicago, Kintzler has posted a 4.56 ERA/4.19 FIP and logged a 48.8 percent grounder rate (down nearly 8 percent from his lifetime mark). Kintzler’s time with the Cubs has been especially disastrous, as he has yielded 10 earned runs on 19 hits and six walks over 10 2/3 frames since they acquired him from the Nationals at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals – $6MM option, $500K buyout; Injuries, including a foot ailment that has kept him out since July, have been a regular occurrence for Doolittle. The 31-year-old has mostly been stellar when healthy enough to take the mound, though, and had been amid a career season before his latest injury. Over 37 1/3 innings in 2018, Doolittle has put up a 1.45 ERA/1.98 FIP with 11.82 K/9 and a microscopic .72 BB/9. Adding to the brilliance, the lefty has saved 22 of 23 opportunities. Doolittle is set to come off the DL soon, and after their season concludes, the Nats are primed to exercise his option for next year.

Fernando Rodney, RHP, Athletics – $4.25MM option, $250K buyout: Despite his age (41), Rodney has managed appealing results between Minnesota and Oakland this year. The longtime closer has been particularly effective in a setup role for the Athletics, who acquired him last month. During his short A’s tenure, Rodney has surrendered just one run on nine hits and three walks (with 11 strikeouts) over 11 2/3 frames. All told, Rodney has a 2.60 ERA/3.48 FIP with 9.92 K/9, 3.58 BB/9 and a 44.7 percent grounder rate in 55 1/3 innings. That output’s clearly worth the $4.25MM Rodney could make next year, but Oakland will have to weigh his age and inconsistent history when determining his future in the offseason.

Seunghwan Oh, RHP, Rockies – $2.5MM option, $250K buyout: In this case, there probably won’t be a decision to make on Colorado’s part, as Oh’s salary for 2019 will become guaranteed if he reaches 70 appearances. He’s already at 65, putting him on track with just under a month left in the regular season. And even without the vesting option, Colorado would welcome Oh back on a $2.5MM club option. After all, the 36-year-old has produced great numbers over 62 2/3 innings this season between the Blue Jays and Rockies, having recorded a 2.44/3.04 FIP with 10.2 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9.

Nate Jones, RHP, White Sox – $4.65MM option*: Jones has been tremendous at times, but injuries – including a pronator muscle strain this year – have marred his career. Since 2017, the 32-year-old has combined for a mere 36 1/3 innings (24 2/3 this season). With a $1.25MM buyout, there’s not a huge price to keeping Jones. Critically, his contract also includes two more option years (though the second one will be converted to a mutual option), so there’s future upside to be considered as well.

*An earlier version of this post indicated that Jones could be retained at the league minimum, by operation of a clause in his contract. MLBTR has since learned that the greater value now listed will instead apply.

Earlier Monday, we took a look at position players whose contracts include club options for 2019. We’ll do the same here with starting pitchers…

Cole Hamels, LHP, Cubs – $20MM option, $6MM buyout (Texas would pay the buyout): Earlier in the season, when Hamels was toiling as a home run-prone Rangers starter, it seemed like a lock that he’d reach free agency over the winter. But since the Cubs acquired the 34-year-old prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, he has returned to his old ways as a front-end starter, as Steve Adams noted last week. Hamels hasn’t allowed more than one run in any of his six starts with Chicago, and has yielded a mere three ER across 39 innings. He has also notched nearly a strikeout per frame (38) while walking only 11 hitters during his brief Cubs tenure. Further, the HR issues that plagued Hamels in Texas have vanished, as he hasn’t surrendered a single long ball as a Cub. It seems Hamels is pitching his way into the Cubs’ 2019 plans, barring a meltdown over the next several weeks.

James Shields, RHP, White Sox – $16MM option, $2MM buyout: Once among the game’s most celebrated workhorses, Shields’ career went in the tank from 2016-17. But the 36-year-old has bounced back to a degree this season, having pitched to a 4.39 ERA/4.78 FIP through 182 1/3 innings. That type of production isn’t worth $16MM, though, so the White Sox are certain to decline Shields’ option and potentially end a disappointing tenure on the South Side. Not that White Sox fans need to hear about it again, but the team traded now-standout infield prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. to the Padres for Shields in June 2016. Even though the loss of Tatis has become a sickening reality for Chicago, it’s fair to note he wasn’t a ballyhooed prospect when it dealt him.

Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox – $15MM option, $1MM buyout: Sale’s option will increase to $16MM if he wins this year’s AL Cy Young Award, which is a real possibility. That should tell you all you need to know about where he’ll pitch in 2019.

Ervin Santana, RHP, Twins – $14MM option, no buyout: A finger injury has wrecked Santana’s season, limiting him to 24 2/3 dreadful innings of 8.03 ERA/7.94 FIP ball, and kept him out since Aug. 16. Worsening matters, Santana expressed frustration toward the Twins’ front office last month after the out-of-contention club traded multiple veterans. Those comments aside, the Twins would have been inclined to pick up Santana’s option had he continued to post his typically above-average production this season. Now, given the way Santana’s 2018 has gone, Minnesota would be hard pressed to keep the soon-to-be 36-year-old at such a lofty price.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants – $12MM option, $1.5MM buyout: Like Boston’s situation with Sale, this is a no-brainer for the Giants. They’ll absolutely exercise Bumgarner’s option.

Matt Moore, LHP, Rangers – $10MM option, $750K buyout: The 29-year-old Moore has recorded a woeful 7.27 ERA/5.24 FIP in 90 1/3 innings (30 appearances, 12 starts), further distancing himself from his days as an elite prospect with the Rays. Texas will buy him out after the season.

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Indians – $9MM option, $663K buyout: This is an easy yes for Cleveland, which has reaped the benefits of the underrated Carrasco’s stellar work since his 2014 breakout.

Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers – $7.5MM option, $750K buyout: At times, Perez has been a passable innings eater, and had that continued this year, the Rangers would’ve exercised his option. Instead, injuries have helped hold the 27-year-old to 70 2/3 innings and a 6.75 ERA/5.97 FIP. Thanks to Perez’s horrific output this season, the Rangers demoted him to the bullpen last week and informed him that they’re not planning to pick up his option.

Doug Fister, RHP, Rangers – $4.5MM option, $500K buyout: Fister used to be one of the game’s most effective starters, but he’s now an unspectacular back-end type, and his future with the Rangers is in question heading into 2019. Things working in the soon-to-be 35-year-old’s favor with respect to his option: 1.) It’s relatively inexpensive. 2.) The Rangers are starved for pitching, especially with Moore and Perez on the outs. Things working against the soft-tossing Fister: 1.) He was subpar this year in 66 innings and 12 starts, registering a 4.50 ERA with a 5.25 FIP. 2.) His season ended in mid-June because of a knee strain. This doesn’t look like a slam-dunk decision either way, particularly considering Texas is so hard up for starters.

Jordan Lyles, RHP, Brewers – $3.5MM option, $250K buyout: Lyles has spent the majority of his career in teams’ rotations, having piled up 115 starts in 212 appearances, but has primarily been a reliever since 2016. While the 27-year-old did good work out of the Padres’ bullpen earlier this year, his season has gone off a cliff since the Brewers added him via waivers last month. Lyles has only thrown 9 1/3 innings as a Brewer, but with six earned runs and eight walks given up, he has damaged his already shaky chances of the team exercising his option. It seems likely he’ll be a free agent in the offseason.

Wily Peralta, RHP, Royals – $3MM option, $25K buyout: As with Lyles, we’ll lump Peralta in with the starters, even though he may not belong with them. While Peralta has amassed 120 starts in 156 major league appearances, he has functioned solely as a reliever this year. Now the rebuilding Royals’ closer, the hard-throwing 29-year-old has saved all eight of his opportunities and logged a 3.57 ERA/4.17 FIP with 9.53 K/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate over 22 2/2 frames (24 appearances). Peralta’s walk rate is ugly (5.56 per nine), however, and both his batting average on balls in play against (.250) and Statcast data (.293 wOBA allowed vs. 345 xwOBA) suggest he has been fortunate to limit earned runs at such a quality rate. As of now, though, Peralta appears to be a decent bet to return to the Royals for $3MM next year, as the Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger wrote over the weekend.