This Date In Transactions History: One Giant Acquisition
It was May 29, 2010, nine years ago today, that the Giants made a decision which helped propel them to a National League West title and a World Series championship. Sitting a few games over .500 and facing their seventh straight season without a playoff berth, the club sought a right-handed spark for a lefty-heavy outfield. The Giants found their answer in 33-year-old veteran Pat Burrell, whom they signed to a minor league deal that came with no risk but ultimately paid significant dividends.
Burrell began his career in 2000 with the Phillies, who drafted him first overall in 1998, and wound up enjoying a successful run with the organization. Between his debut and his final season with the Phillies in 2008, Burrell headed to the plate 5,388 times and batted .257/.367/.485 (120 wRC+) with 251 home runs and 16.8 wins above replacement. Burrell’s Phillies tenure concluded with a World Series win over his next team, the Rays.
Tampa Bay brought Burrell in on a two-year, $16MM contract in January 2009, but the deal proved to be an unmitigated disaster for the franchise. Burrell was among the majors’ worst players in Year 1 of the deal; after Burrell got off to a similarly poor start through 24 games in 2010, the Rays designated him for assignment before releasing him with $9MM left on his contract.
Tampa Bay likely figured Burrell was shot when it parted with him. Little did the Rays know he’d end up as a dirt-cheap contributor on a title-winning club just a few months later. San Francisco owned a 29-24 record when it promoted Burrell to the majors on June 4, and it went 63-46 the rest of the way to win its division by two games over San Diego. Pat the Bat played an instrumental role in the Giants’ narrow defeat of the Padres. During a 96-game, 341-plate appearance renaissance, Burrell slashed .266/.364/.509 (136 wRC+) with 18 HRs and 2.8 WAR as the Giants’ primary left fielder.
Burrell’s numbers dropped in San Francisco’s playoff series wins over the Braves, Phillies and Rangers, but it didn’t faze the Giants. The franchise took home its first championship since 1954, back when it was the New York Giants, and went on to win two more in the ensuing four seasons. Burrell wasn’t part of either of those 2012 or ’14 clubs, but he did return to the Giants for his final season in 2011 – this time on a major league contract – and log solid production in 219 trips to the plate. Almost a decade after the Giants first signed Burrell, it’s fair to say he still ranks as one of the best in-season minor league signings ever.
The Long-Awaited Arrival Of Lucas Giolito
As a former first-round pick (16th overall in 2012) who later became one of Major League Baseball’s premier prospects, there was optimism right-hander Lucas Giolito would develop into a front-line starter in the pros. It just took longer than expected. Seven years after the Nationals selected him, it looks as if Giolito is breaking through in a White Sox uniform.
Giolito joined the White Sox in December 2016 as part of one of that offseason’s highest-profile trades. It was a polarizing deal for the Nationals, with many enthusiastic about their addition of outfielder Adam Eaton – who was controllable for an eminently reasonable $38.4MM over a half-decade at the time. Others ripped the Nationals for giving up too much to acquire Eaton, for whom they surrendered Giolito and a pair of other quality righty prospects in Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning.
A couple years later, it’s fair to say the trade hasn’t worked out quite as Washington hoped. Eaton has been mostly good in a Nationals uniform when on the field, but injuries limited him to 23 games in 2017 and 95 last year. Durability hasn’t been an issue for Eaton this season, though he’s not yet producing at prior levels. Worsening matters, the Nats haven’t won a playoff series since adding Eaton, and the disappointing club’s currently on track to miss out on October ball for the second straight season.
As for the rebuilding White Sox, the results of the Eaton deal have been mixed. Lopez has been inconsistent since he debuted with them in 2017, while Dunning – although still a good prospect – just underwent Tommy John surgery in March. Fortunately for the White Sox, Giolito may be here to save the day, which is somewhat unexpected considering the struggles he endured in both the minors and majors over the past couple years.
Giolito pitched his first full major league season in 2018, racking up 32 starts and 173 1/3 innings, but it wasn’t pretty. He ranked dead last among qualified starters in ERA (6.13), FIP (5.56) and K/BB ratio (1.39). Consequently, there wasn’t much optimism centering on Giolito entering the 2019 campaign. But the 24-year-old worked diligently over the winter to turn around his fortunes, as James Fegan of The Athletic detailed in February, and has reaped the rewards of a change in delivery.
Giolito got off to a slow start through his first five outings of the season, evidenced by the 5.32 ERA he possessed and the 12 walks he issued through 23 2/3 innings as of May 2. But over his five most recent starts, Giolito has delivered excellent results; he yielded five earned runs on 17 hits over that 36 1/3-frame span and posted a 39:8 K/BB ratio. In his crowning moment of that stretch, Giolito fired a complete game, four-hit road shutout against Houston’s incredible offense on May 23. Thanks in part to that start, Giolito owns a superb 2.85 ERA/2.84 FIP with 10.35 K/9 and 3.00 BB/9 across 60 innings on the season. He has already accounted for two wins above replacement after finishing in the minuses in that category in 2018.
Perhaps you’re still skeptical of Giolito, who did face the below-averages offenses of the Blue Jays (twice), Indians and Royals during his recent stretch of brilliance. It’s hard to deny there has been major progress, though. Here’s a look at some of the key strides Giolito has made this year…
- Throwing more strikes: According to Baseball-Reference, Giolito threw strikes 60.5 percent of the time last year. That ranked 116th out of 121 qualifiers and helped lead to 4.57 walks per nine innings. He’s now generating strikes at a 66.3 percent clip, good for 31st out of 130 hurlers. Giolito has also seen his zone percentage climb from 47.2 to 52.6 percent, and his first-pitch strike rate has shot from 55.4 to 62.0.
- Amassing far more strikeouts and whiffs: Giolito drew swinging strikes at an 8.3 percent clip in 2018. That number’s now at 12.8 percent. This year’s version of Giolito ranks 19th among all starters in that category. It helps explain the meteoric rise in his K/9, which was 6.49 in 2018.
- An increase in velocity and a remade repertoire: Giolito’s average fastball velocity clocked in below 93 mph from 2017-18. The mean has jumped to 94.5 mph this year, though, and he’s throwing the pitch far more often. After turning to the offering just under 40 percent of the time in 2018, Giolito has gone to it at a 55.2 percent rate this season. He has also bagged his sinker, which was his second-most common pitch a year ago, and thrown more change-ups and fewer breaking balls. Giolito’s three main pitches – his fastball, change and slider – have all been among the most effective in baseball so far, according to FanGraphs.
- Limiting contact: Giolito’s contact rate has dropped from 80.7 percent to 73.5 in a year’s time. While his groundball percentage simultaneously has fallen 8 percentage points (44.4 to 36.4), Giolito isn’t allowing high-impact fly balls. Not only is Giolito second in the majors in infield fly rate (17.5 percent), but his average FB distance against has plunged from 315 feet to 301. In the process, his wOBA/xwOBA tandem has gone from .345/.350 to .261/.277.
All things considered, it appears Giolito is evolving into one of baseball’s preeminent young starters and delivering on the considerable hype he garnered as a prospect. If true, he’ll be a long-term building block for the White Sox and one-fifth of what could be an exciting rotation for years to come. That will depend somewhat on whether Lopez, Dunning and top-end prospects Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech – who’s recovering from 2018 Tommy John surgery – pan out.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Derek Dietrich Turns On The Power
Reds second baseman Derek Dietrich has seemingly been on a mission to torture the NL Central rival Pirates so far this season. The brash 29-year-old homered off the Pirates on Opening Day and continued his onslaught just over a week later, mashing a pair of HRs and helping spark a brawl in Pittsburgh on April 7. Not content to stop there, Dietrich victimized the Pirates this week for another four HRs in a four-game series, giving him seven in nine appearances against the Buccos.
Dietrich’s most publicized moments have come at Pittsburgh’s expense this season, but the Pirates aren’t the only team he has frustrated. As a .262/.368/.713 hitter through 144 plate appearances, Dietrich owns the majors’ seventh-highest wRC+ (171) among batters who have accrued at least 140 PA. He also leads the league in isolated power (.451) by 51 points over second-place Christian Yelich on the strength of 17 home runs. That’s already a career-best mark for Dietrich, who hadn’t amassed more than 16 in a season since he made his major league debut with the Marlins in 2013.
Dietrich was typically a useful player in Miami across six seasons and 2,132 PA, combining respectable offense (.254/.335/.422 – good for a 109 wRC+) with an ability to line up at several positions. Despite that, the Marlins – unwilling to pay Dietrich a projected $4.8MM in arbitration – designated him for assignment in November. While Dietrich now looks like yet another one who got away for the down-and-out Marlins, it’s worth noting the rest of the league didn’t really want him either during the offseason. Finally, almost three full months after Miami cut Dietrich, he joined the Reds on a minor league deal in February.
Baseball slept on Dietrich over the winter, but he has since burst forth as one of the game’s shrewdest offseason signings. For the Reds, his emergence has been all the more fortuitous given that they have gone all season without injured second baseman Scooter Gennett. Like Gennett, whom the Reds claimed off waivers from Milwaukee entering the 2017 season, it appears Dietrich has gone from under-the-radar pickup to star in their uniform.
The question is: How is Dietrich suddenly one of the league’s most powerful and productive hitters? It seems to stem from a change in approach. Dietrich is pulling the ball more than ever, which is conducive to hitting for power, and looks like the latest beneficiary of the sport’s fly ball revolution. Although he never posted a fly ball rate better than 43.3 percent in a season with the Marlins, he’s currently at 52.2 percent – the sixth-highest mark in the league. As you’d expect from his stat line, Dietrich has made his fly balls count. He’s averaging 348 feet on his flies, a 38-foot increase from last year’s 310, and has significantly upped his exit velocity while putting the ball in the air. Dietrich’s fly balls and line drives have traveled at a 96.7 mph mean after clocking in at 90.8 in 2018, according to Statcast.
In theory, the fact that Dietrich is running a ridiculously low batting average on balls in play (.176, compared to .308 in Miami) makes his success all the more amazing. That said, fly ball-heavy hitters aren’t usually candidates for high BABIPs; beyond that, the stat doesn’t factor in homers – which make up more than half of Dietrich’s 32 hits this season. Though there’s a strong likelihood Dietrich’s BABIP will rise closer to career norms as the season progresses, his overall production will inevitably go backward to some degree.
The reality is that Dietrich’s not going to continue hitting dingers on 36.5 percent of fly balls, as only the MVP-winning Yelich broke the 30 percent plateau last season. Dietrich also isn’t some plate discipline savant who controls the zone at an elite level. To his credit, Dietrich’s walking at a career-high 9.3 percent clip and has slashed his strikeout rate by almost 5 percent since 2018 (from 25.4 to 20.8). However, those figures are still just a bit above average. And the left-handed Dietrich has continued a career-long trend of slumping against same-handed pitchers, who have held him to a meek .154/.273/.300 line this year. So it’s righties who are going to have to figure out how to handle him. Here’s a tip for them: Dietrich hasn’t done much against inside pitches, as these charts from Baseball Savant show, but has dominated versus most offerings in the middle or outer half. And yet, pitchers have largely lived in Dietrich’s hot zones, evidenced by this heat map via FanGraphs.
Dietrich is unlikely to keep this up (not many could), but that’s not to say his offense will careen off a cliff. True, there’s a 46-point gap between his weighted on-base average (.442) and expected wOBA (.396), yet he still ranks in the top 91st percentile of the majors in xwOBA, per Statcast. If Dietrich manages to produce at anywhere near his xwOBA for the rest of the season, the Reds would surely be ecstatic. They’re paying Dietrich a relative pittance this year ($2MM) and can control him through arbitration in 2020. That could help make Dietrich a valuable summer trade chip if Cincinnati’s out of contention by then. For now, though, the Reds appear to have another Gennett-esque steal in their lineup.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Red Sox Bullpen Facing Renewed Questions
It’s easy to overreact to bullpen implosions, particularly when they cost a team a seemingly surefire lead. Last night’s meltdown at Fenway not only cost the Red Sox a win, but played to some of the major fears entering the season.
As Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes, the collapse against a tepid Indians lineup featured messy appearances from Ryan Brasier, Marcus Walden, and Travis Lakins. While Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes weren’t charged with any runs, they didn’t really help with the ugliest stat line to emerge from the evening: the Boston pen recorded just one strikeout against seven walks.
The bullpen was the source of much consternation when camp broke. In particular, many worried about the failure to add established arms to a late-inning unit that bid adieu to closer Craig Kimbrel.
As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote in reviewing the club’s offseason efforts, the “nightmare scenario” some posited was an overreaction. But he also noted that the decision not to bring in additional high-leverage arms — which would also have deepened the middle relief unit — was a “risky strategy.” After all, Polishuk reasoned, “settling for even a middle-of-the-pack bullpen for a few months could cost the Red Sox” in a tight division race.
Every win matters, and it’d always be preferable to have another elite arm to call upon. But after observing the Boston relief unit for one-third of the season, it’s hard to call it a problem. Combined, the group carries a solid 3.92 ERA that ranks in the top third leaguewide. Fielding-independent pitching metrics concur with that general placement.
Have things gotten worse of late? The unit has recorded as many blown saves in the past two weeks (4) as have the Nationals, but other teams have more and that’s not necessarily a worthwhile metric to go by in evaluating overall bullpen health. Despite grading in the middle of the pack on the season, Sox relievers have suddenly become walk-happy over the past two weeks with a league-worst 13.3% BB rate. Still, that seems like a short-sample blip. Overall results have actually ticked up over the past month, with the relief corps combining for a 3.21 ERA.
If a true, overarching issue has cropped up it may relate to Ryan Brasier. Expected to function as a core part of the high-leverage group after last year’s surprise emergence, Brasier has fallen on hard times of late. As Speier notes, the righty has been tagged for five long balls in his last 22 2/3 innings of action. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com looked further at Brasier’s struggles.
But even if Brasier has stepped back, the Red Sox have seen others emerge. Barnes has doubled down on his strong 2018 season. Though he’s allowing too many walks, Workman has done the same, carrying stepped-up swinging-strike and strikeout numbers. And Walden has been excellent in his first full season in the majors, with a pleasing mix of K’s and grounders to support a 2.05 ERA.
To be sure, the remainder of the outfit isn’t as strong, but that’s a nice trio. Heath Hembree has been useful and Brasier still holds out hope of a bounceback. The team’s rotating cast of other relief pitchers has yet to find sustained success, but that’s a common issue around the league.
It’s certainly not difficult to see the merits of a mid-season acquisition or two. But really, who didn’t see that coming for a team that obviously prioritized other areas in the offseason? What’s more surprising is that the assembled group has performed so well for such a sustained stretch. Most any relief unit will produce moments like last night; plenty of others haven’t been capable of the sturdy results produced to this point by Boston’s hurlers.
Better still, further improvement might be found without a budget or farm-busting move for a high-end closer. The one area where the righty-heavy Sox have clearly struggled is in retiring opposing left-handed hitters. The relief unit has been tagged for a 5.31 ERA and 1.70 HR/9 by southpaw batters. Adding even one quality situational lefty could help smooth out this bump and make it easier for skipper Alex Cora to get the ball to his most reliable relievers in the late innings.
Miguel Cabrera’s Power Is MIA
It’s no surprise this has been a lean year for the rebuilding Tigers, who sit near the bottom of the majors at 20-32 through two months. A team can still be entertaining even if it’s not good enough to contend, but the Tigers have largely failed in that respect. If you like offense, you should probably avoid watching Detroit. The Tigers rank second to last in the majors in runs (180) and wRC+ (74), leading only the Marlins in those categories, while they’re better than just the Fish and the Giants in OPS (.658).
Part of the Tigers’ problem has been the sharp decline of future Hall of Fame first baseman Miguel Cabrera, whose long-running days as a force may be gone. With a .294/.368/.369 line, Cabrera’s one of just two qualified hitters on this year’s Tigers with a wRC+ of 100 (league average), but that’s not saying much in his case. After all, Cabrera is one of the greatest hitters ever, a former Triple Crown winner and the owner of a magnificent .316/.394/.547 slash with 2,730 hits and 467 home runs across 9,895 plate appearances. He also boasts a 148 wRC+ that ranks 32nd in the history of the game.
After debuting with the aforementioned Marlins as a 20-year-old wunderkind in 2003, Cabrera became a perennial 30-home run threat and has since hit at least that many in 10 seasons. The right-hander blasted 38 HRs in 2016, which is looking more and more like the final high-power season he’ll ever have. Cabrera notched 16 in 529 trips to the plate in 2017 and then three in an injury-shortened, 157-PA campaign last season.
Through 212 PA this year, his age-36 season, Cabrera has added a meager two HRs to his ledger. Perhaps of greater concern, Cabrera possesses the majors’ third-lowest ISO (.075), bettering only two members of the Marlins’ dreary offense – Miguel Rojas and Starlin Castro – in that category. Even though Cabrera’s .149 mark from 2017-18 was between 12 and 22 points below league average in those seasons, it looks appealing compared to where he stands nowadays. What’s alarming is that there’s not much evidence to suggest Cabrera is due for an enormous turnaround. Given that Cabrera’s one of the game’s slowest runners, it’s unlikely his .371 batting BABIP will stick around and continue to help prop up his batting average. And while Cabrera’s expected weighted on-base average (.336) does outpace his real mark (.322), it’s closer to middle of the pack than exceptional.
On one hand, it seems unwise to shovel dirt on the career of a two-time MVP and 11-time All-Star. It’s quite possible, though, that age has reduced Cabrera to an unspectacular offensive player who’s neither all that valuable in the field nor on the bases. That sounds a lot like the Angels’ Albert Pujols, a baseball luminary who has become a replacement-level player (or worse) in recent seasons.
Pujols’ enormous contract – a 10-year, $240MM albatross that runs through 2021 – has weighed the Angels down during his decline phase and will continue to do so until it expires. Detroit may be in the same position with Cabrera, whom it signed to an eight-year, $248MM extension entering the 2014 season. Cabrera will make a $30MM salary through 2021 and $32MM between 2022-23 before the Tigers buy him out for $8MM (in lieu of a $30MM club option) going into 2024. But Cabrera may already be amid an irreversible downward spiral with $151MM left on his deal, which is a horrifying possibility for the Tigers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Draft Retrospection: Dodgers Steal A Superstar
It was June 2013, six years ago, that the Dodgers secured one of the greatest draft steals in recent memory. In the fourth round, with the 124th overall pick, the Dodgers chose an Arizona high school first baseman/pitcher named Cody Bellinger. Although Bellinger’s the son of a former big leaguer, ex-Yankees and Angels infielder/outfielder Clay Bellinger, that didn’t make him a slam dunk to turn into a contributor at the MLB level.
Scouts were somewhat bullish on Bellinger at the time of his drafting, though, with some likening him to former major league first baseman Adam LaRoche (via Baseball America). Although LaRoche had a better and longer career than most, it’s obvious Bellinger has blown by him two-plus seasons into his career. In fact, Bellinger already has a superior lifetime fWAR to LaRoche (11.9 to 11.5) despite having amassed almost 5,000 fewer plate appearances.
Even though he didn’t come off the board near the very top of his draft class, Bellinger developed into one of the game’s 100 best prospects and immediately made good on the hype in the bigs. Los Angeles promoted Bellinger in April 2017, a season in which he saw extensive action at two positions – first base and left field – and wound up taking home NL Rookie of the Year honors.
Bellinger slashed .267/.352/.581 (138 wRC+) in his inaugural season, smacked the majors’ fifth-most home runs (39) and stole 10 bases. While Bellinger wasn’t as effective in 2018, he still recorded a solidly above-average line of .260/.343/.470 (120 wRC+) with another 25 homers and 14 steals.
Had the 23-year-old Bellinger showed up this season and been the same type of producer he was in 2018, the Dodgers likely would have been satisfied. Instead, through two months, he has looked like a bona fide superstar and the No. 1 challenger to reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich. With an astounding .363/.469/.761 slash, Bellinger easily ranks first in wRC+ (216), outpacing the second-place Yelich (188) by 28 points and baseball deity Mike Trout (172) by 44. Yelich does have a two-home run lead on Bellinger (21-19), but the latter has clearly been the more valuable player by Wins Above Replacement (5.2 rWAR/4.3 fWAR to 2.9/3.0).
Are Bellinger’s otherworldly offensive numbers sustainable? Perhaps not, as it’s hard to keep up a 1.200-plus OPS all season unless you’re Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Rogers Horsnby, Jimmie Foxx or another legend along those lines. But the strides Bellinger has made are very real. He has slashed his strikeout rate to 13.8 percent, down 10.1 percent from 2018, while increasing his walk rate from 10.9 to 14.3. He’s also hitting way more line drives and far fewer ground balls, making much more contact, whiffing less and chasing fewer out-of-zone pitches than he did in previous years. Meanwhile, Statcast credits the lefty-swinging Bellinger with the game’s top-ranked expected weighted on-base average (.504) – which is somehow better than his .500 real wOBA.
Adding to Bellinger’s appeal, he’s hardly an offense-only player. While it’s tough to get too exited about two months of defensive data, it’s similarly difficult not to raise eyebrows over his fielding numbers. In 46 games in right field this season, Bellinger has already put up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and a 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating. He ranks top three among all outfielders in those categories. As Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions noted last week, Bellinger’s left arm has been his greatest asset in the field. He fired the cannon on multiple occasions Sunday to stonewall Mets base runners.
With this year’s draft nearing, Bellinger’s rise is an important one to keep in mind. Aside from Cubs great Kris Bryant and arguably the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, Bellinger has outdone every first-round pick from his draft class. They each went anywhere from 91 to 123 choices before Bellinger, but he may soon follow Bryant in becoming the class’ second MVP. More importantly for the Dodgers, who continue to fire on all cylinders, the player they once used a mere fourth-rounder on could end up as the face of a World Series winner as early as this season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Sonny Gray Looks Reborn
Two years after the Athletics chose Sonny Gray 18th overall in the 2011 draft, the right-hander made his major league debut at the age of 23 and quickly became one of the game’s premier young hurlers. From 2013-15, a 491-inning span, Gray posted the majors’ 10th-lowest ERA (2.88), 11th-best groundball percentage (54.2) and 31st-ranked FIP (3.36) among starters. Gray was a front-end rotation piece at that point, but injury issues helped knock him off the rails in 2016. Gray rebounded a season later, but the Athletics elected to cash him and his remaining year and a half of control in at that July’s trade deadline.
The A’s sent Gray to the Yankees in what became a failed union between him and New York. In 2018 – Gray’s lone full season with the club – he produced abysmal results at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, where he ran up a 6.98 ERA as batters teed off on him for a .318/.406/.527 line. Gray’s struggles convinced the Yankees to pull him from their rotation during the summer and then leave him off their playoff roster in the fall.
It quickly became obvious in the offseason the Yankees would move on from Gray, who general manager Brian Cashman admitted needed a change of scenery. In January, three-plus months after Cashman telegraphed Gray’s exit, he traded the 29-year-old to the starter-starved Reds.
Before Gray ever threw a pitch in a Cincinnati uniform, the team signed him to a three-year, $30.5MM extension to prevent him from testing free agency during the upcoming winter. Well, two months into the season, that contract looks like a steal. Gray has come back with a vengeance as a member of the Reds, with whom he has posted a 3.54 ERA/2.99 FIP through 56 innings. Along the way, Gray has registered career bests in strikeout rate (10.29 per nine), groundball percentage (55.9), infield fly percentage (10.8) and contact rate (73.7 percent). Furthermore, even though Gray ranks near the bottom of the league in strike percentage for the second straight year, he has decreased his walk rate 2018 (from 3.94 to 3.54). He has also given up home runs on just 10.8 percent of fly balls, down from a combined 15.3 percent from 2016-18.
It’s probably fair to credit some of Gray’s revival to Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson, who was also Gray’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt, though his impact is difficult to quantify. It seems to have helped that Gray has moved back to his high-spin four-seam fastball, a pitch the Yankees discouraged from throwing. Gray has gone to the pitch 37.7 percent of the time this year after throwing it at a 26.5 percent clip in 2018. But it’s Gray’s slider and sinker – offerings he has used at a combined 38.1 percent rate – that have been his most effective pitches this year, per Statcast. Hitters have mustered a horrid .102 weighted on-base average against Gray’s slider and a weak .260 mark off his sinker. All told, Gray’s expansive repertoire has limited batters to a .278 wOBA, which is right in line with his .272 xwOBA. Both of those figures are roughly 50-point improvements from the numbers Gray recorded in those categories during his forgettable 2018 as a Yankee.
Thanks in no small part to Gray’s resurgence, the Reds’ rotation has leapt from horrid to good in a year. Last season’s staff hung out at the bottom of the league’s pitching leaderboard, whereas Gray & Co. entered Tuesday fourth in ERA and fWAR. If not for the Reds’ disappointing offense, albeit one that’s throttling the Pirates at the moment, perhaps they’d be serious playoff contenders.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins Go Bargain Shopping, Reap Rewards
It’s May 28, two full months into the season, and the Twins are atop Major League Baseball in record (36-17), run differential (plus-110), runs (319) and home runs (105). They’re already almost halfway to last season’s win total (78) with 109 games to go. If you didn’t think the Twins would be in this position, one that sees them leading the preseason AL Central favorite Indians by 10 games, you’re part of a club with countless members.
So how have the Twins done it? Largely with homegrown products. Shortstop Jorge Polanco, outfielders Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, and right-hander Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson are among those who have been at the forefront of Minnesota’s charge up the standings. But many of the additions executives Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made this past offseason, when they happened to lock up Polanco and Kepler to sweetheart extensions, have played significant roles in the Twins’ greatness thus far.
As far as winter pickups went, the Twins’ costliest acquisitions – free-agent signings Marwin Gonzalez (two years, $21MM) and Nelson Cruz (one year, $14.3MM) – received the lion’s share of attention entering the season. As the Twins expected, they’ve been prominent pieces in 2019. However, some of the Falvey-Levine duo’s less expensive buys have been arguably as important.
Over 20 percent of the Twins’ league-high HR total has come from first baseman C.J. Cron and second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who have combined for 23 dingers. The 29-year-old Cron arrived in late November as a waiver claim from the Rays, who cut him even though he was coming off a 30-home run campaign in which he slashed .253/.323/.493 (122 wRC+). Low-budget Tampa Bay wasn’t on board with paying Cron upward of $5MM via arbitration. He ended up settling for a bit less, $4.8MM, shortly after joining the Twins. Since then, they’ve benefited from Cron’s .270/.333/.534 (125 wRC+) line with 13 HRs in 198 trips to the plate. It doesn’t look like a fluke, as Cron is walking more, striking out less, chasing fewer out-of-zone pitches and making more contact than he did in 2018. He also boasts an expected weighted on-base average (.376) that sits nine points higher than his real wOBA (.367).
To this point, Cron has replaced now-retired franchise icon Joe Mauer‘s production with aplomb. Schoop also had a tough act to follow in Brian Dozier, an excellent Twin from 2012-17 whom the team traded last summer amid a disappointing season. So far, Schoop hasn’t been fazed either.
Like Dozier, Schoop followed up an impressive 2017 with a down ’18, in which the Orioles traded him to the Brewers in July. Schoop wasn’t good with either team last year, and the Brewers understandably decided after the season to non-tender him instead of giving him a potential $10MM-plus salary in arbitration.
On Dec. 6, a week after he reached free agency, Schoop found a new home in Minnesota at a $7.5MM salary. The 27-year-old has begun his Twins tenure by slashing .266/.321/.514 (118 wRC+) with 10 HRs through 187 trips to the plate. Whether it’s sustainable is in question, though. Schoop has posted below-average strikeout and walk rates, which admittedly has been the case throughout his time in the majors, while swinging and missing at an all-time high rate and making less contact than ever. Encouragingly, though, there isn’t a large gap between Schoop’s wOBA (.356) and xwOBA (.347).
With the help of Cron and Schoop, the Twins’ offense has been the driving force behind their first-place start. But pitching has also been a major reason for the team’s revival. Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson get most of the attention in their rotation, but another offseason scrapheap pickup – left-hander Martin Perez – has logged a sterling 2.17 ERA through 49 2/3 innings out of their rotation. Before he got to Minnesota, Perez was largely a back-end starter in Texas from 2012-18. He was borderline unusable last year, an injury-shortened campaign, and the Rangers declined his $6MM club option thereafter. In doing so, the Rangers had to pay Perez nearly half that money ($2.35MM). They weren’t exactly teeming with starters at the time, which showed how far the former promising prospect, 28, fell out of favor in Arlington.
Perez has found new life with the Twins on a $4MM guarantee, though, and may be pitching his way into their 2020 plans. They’ll have to decide on a $7.5MM option after the season, but the way things are going, it doesn’t look as if Perez will end up back in free agency then. Perez’s rise has come thanks in part to a noticeable increase in velocity. His fastball and sinker each averaged around 93 mph last year, but they’re in the 95 range this season. While Perez’s walk rate of 4.08 per nine isn’t appealing, he has upped his K/9 from 5.48 to 8.69 in a one-year span. At the same time, hitters are making less contact off Perez, whose 10.9 swinging-strike percentage far outdoes the 7.8 mark he managed in Texas. When they have put the bat on the ball, the contact hasn’t been all threatening, evidenced in part by Perez’s paltry .283 xwOBA (compared to a .298 wOBA).
When Perez and the Twins’ other starters have handed off to the club’s bullpen, they’ve given the reins to relief corps which has made strides since 2018. The loss of the lights-out Ryan Pressly, whom the Twins traded to the Astros last summer, has stung. However, three more members of the Twins’ buy-low offseason bonanza – righties Ryne Harper, Blake Parker and Mike Morin – have come through to help ease the pain of Pressly’s loss.
Harper was already in the organization last season, but he spent it in the minors and wasn’t a lock to stick around this year. The Twins re-signed him to a minor league deal, however, and have since seen his emerge as a trustworthy piece of their bullpen. The 30-year-old Harper, who hadn’t even pitched in the majors prior to 2019, leads Twins relievers in innings (22, tied with Taylor Rogers) and has pitched to a stingy 1.64 ERA/2.57 FIP with 8.18 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9. Granted, regression for the soft-tossing Harper is likely on the way – it’ll be hard to maintain a .220 batting average on balls in play and an 85.2 percent stand rate, and perhaps even tougher for a fly ball-heavy hurler to continue limiting home runs. Nevertheless, one can’t quibble with the unexpected production he has given Minnesota to this stage.
The 33-year-old Parker has been similarly effective through 17 1/3 innings, having registered a 1.04 ERA in an effort to prove the Angels were wrong in non-tendering him last November. Parker isn’t going to keep this up, as his .190 BABIP, 96.2 percent strand rate, uninspiring strikeout and walk rates (7.27 K/9, 3.63 BB/9), and FIP (3.63) indicate. No matter, the groundball-heavy Parker undoubtedly looks worthy of Minnesota’s $3.2MM investment.
The team’s paying even less to Morin, who signed a minors deal in December after struggling with the Angels, Royals and Mariners in previous years. Since the Twins promoted Morin, 28, to the majors May 3, he has worked 9 1/3 innings of one-run ball without issuing a walk.
Roughly a third of the way through the season, Minnesota has been a juggernaut. Whether the Twins will continue to fare this well is up for debate, though it’s hard to envision a team with this much talent nosediving out of the race. Regardless of whether you believe the Twins are for real, though, it’s fair to say a good portion of their success has come thanks to the shrewd, low-risk offseason moves Falvey and Levine made.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Twin Gems Of The Spring Extensions
The dizzying run of extensions this spring drew quite a lot of attention. Several contracts were pointed to as being notably team friendly. Others were of obvious importance because they involved superstars entering walk years.
The sheer volume of transactions tended to obscure the fine details of each particular decision. And several of the extensions were all but buried in the news. When the Twins set up the mics to announce extensions for Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler, the full rush of deals hadn’t yet occurred. But the moves came at the same time that star hurlers Aaron Nola and Luis Severino were signing on the dotted line, drawing much of the attention away from a Minnesota club that was coming off of a middling 2018 season and hadn’t been quite as bold as might have been anticipated in free agency. And the flood of later signings ensured that the Twins’ deals would receive relatively little attention.
Frankly, given the costs involved, those signings did not represent an especially monumental moment for the franchise. The Joe Mauer contract, this was not. The Twins did not strike deals with top young starter Jose Berrios or high-end outfielder Eddie Rosario, both of whom would likely have commanded bigger dollars. Better-known former top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano weren’t really in position for extensions after rough seasons.
So, did we sleep on the Twins? From a team perspective, the roster upside was obvious, but nobody foresaw a 36-17 start to the year and a ten-game lead over the sagging Indians. And what of the extensions they signed? Any sober examination of the Polanco and Kepler contracts at the time of signing would have noted the potential upside but settled on relatively modest expectations. With a third of the season in the books, both deals look like slam dunks.
Let’s look first at Polanco. When the Twins promised him $25.75MM over five years, they were obviously quite comfortable with the risks and had expectations of excess value. But it’s hard to imagine they anticipated the sort of monster production they’ve received from the 25-year-old shortstop.
When MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed to Jose Ramirez as a comp, he was thinking primarily of the latter’s contract — not his ensuing breakout. As it turns out, Polanco has followed Ramirez in converting contact ability into power.
This can’t be called a total surprise. As Adams wrote in assessing the Polanco deal, “if he can tap into a bit more power, there’s perhaps room to take his game to another offensive level.” Certainly, the Twins felt there was something more in the tank after a strong but hardly elite showing in 2018. The stated expectation was that the “best is yet to come” and that Polanco would “continue to develop and grow.”
But that was all projection and feel-good press conference talk. Did anyone really think Polanco would turn on the jets in this manner? He’s now slashing .332/.404/.584 with nine home runs in 228 plate appearances. Better yet, he has boosted his walk rate up to 10.5% and hasn’t even needed to add swing and miss (14.9% strikeout rate) to boost his pop. There’s likely a bit of regression in store, with a .363 BABIP and decent spread in Statcast results/expectations (.418 wOBA vs. .382 xwOBA). But the arrow is obviously pointed upward.
It’s easy to see how the contract could become the sort of bargain that helps fuel a lengthy contention window. One need only look at Ramirez. The Twins had ample control over Polanco already, as he was only a 2+ service-class, non-Super Two player. (He’d have had more but for an ill-advised PED suspension.) Because they made the deal before arbitration and in advance of a true breakout, the Twins can control Polanco through the 2025 season for a total cost of just $47MM, with the final two seasons coming via option ($10.5MM/$1MM buyout, $12.5MM/$750K buyout).
Things are looking quite nice on the Kepler side of things as well. He inked a five-year, $35MM deal. The calculus was different from the get-go in his case, though the decision to make the deal was also driven by a belief that he was primed to improve. Kepler had already reached arbitration as a Super Two, agreeing to a $3.125MM salary with the organization earlier in the winter. With three more arb trips to build from that baseline, and a track record of solid home run production, Kepler was able to command a higher payday.
In some respects, this was the riskier deal for the team. True, he had shown plenty of skill: the 26-year-old had already cracked twenty long balls, turned in three seasons of .180+ isolated power, and made great strides in his plate discipline in 2018 (11.6% walk rate vs. 15.7% strikeout rate). He’s also regarded as a quality defensive outfielder. At the same time, it took a bit of a leap of faith to entrust this kind of cash in a corner outfielder that hadn’t yet turned in a full season of league-average production by measure of wRC+.
So far, so good. Kepler has already launched a dozen long balls in 211 plate appearances. He’s maintaining that strong K/BB blend. And he’s up to a .281 batting average on a .272 batting average on balls in play — a reversal of some poor fortune from 2018 (.224 batting average, .236 BABIP). Statcast credits him with more hard contact (44.5%) and a loftier launch angle (17.2 degrees) than ever before.
Kepler’s early showing surely makes the Twins feel even better about their commitment than they did at the time. Beyond the $35MM guaranteed, the Twins have another year of control at just $10MM ($1MM buyout).
Will Polanco and Kepler keep this up for the long haul? Or even the duration of the present season? That’s hard to say. A fair but conservative estimate would anticipate some regression. But it’d also recognize a very real increase in the present and anticipated future on-field value of these players.
While these contracts largely fell through the cracks at the time they were struck, they now look to be among the best buys of the spring. The team deserves credit for rightly identifying these targets. But it’s also a credit to Polanco and Kepler. They accepted reasonably fair deals, based upon their prior track records, then set to work turning those contracts into potential bargains. As for the Twins organization, these deals didn’t change the near-term complexion of the roster in the least. But they sure do help brighten the long-term outlook.
Understanding The New Trade Deadline Rules
Remember when the trade deadline meant something? You don’t have to go back to poodle skirts or bell bottoms or even neon and Zubaz. It wasn’t long ago at all that the end of July meant the end of significant dealing.
August trades have always been a thing, but they were mostly of much lesser significance. Sure, there was that one mind-boggling blockbuster, but that was mostly the exception that proved the rule. Since mankind began keeping track of balls and strikes, no self-respecting contending ballclub would wait for August to make a needed improvement.
A funny thing happened in recent years, however. As teams became more universally value-conscious, and increasingly recognized the importance of maximizing information before making commitments, they began to view the August trade period as a viable path to roster enhancement. (Click here if you fancy a trip down memory lane or if you aren’t familiar with how things used to work.) There was something of a snowball effect. Clear buyers felt less pressure to reach for a deal knowing they could still work something out for a high-priced veteran. Teams that sat on the fence at the end of July could hold pat (or even make a few additions) knowing that there’d be demand for their pricier assets if things fell apart over the ensuing month. One realization fed the other.
Heck, the 2017 August trade deadline was as exciting as its July counterpart. After the Dodgers’ acquisition of Yu Darvish was reported after the deadline had passed on July 31st, the Astros pulled off another last-minute stunner by acquiring Justin Verlander in a swap that didn’t hit the wire until the early morning hours of September 1st. (It was all very confusing and exhilirating. Maybe you just had to be there.) Last year’s August trade period wasn’t quite as momentous but was still filled with notable transactions.
That development obviously caught the attention of some folks in both the league and union offices. For the league, there was likely some concern that the extra month of trade activity allowed too many teams to exit the postseason race, sapping the game of intrigue. From the players’ perspective, the increasing viability of later-in-time mid-season improvements theoretically reduced the demand for teams to make offseason investments. All involved surely recognized that the odd rules regime was simply a messy and rather arbitrary system.
Whatever the precise reasons, we are now in the Unitary Trade Deadline Era. Which … well, it seems self-explanatory. And in large part it is. But the precise mechanism by which it works, and just what it means, isn’t widely appreciated.
When the One True Trade Deadline was announced, it was stated flatly that trades simply couldn’t be made after the deadline (July 31st at 4pm EST in most years). In actuality, there was a tweak made to The Official Professional Baseball Rules Book. If you would please take out your copy and flip to page 71 … We’re looking at Rule 9 (Assignment of Player Contracts).
[Side note: Have you ever wondered why one team can trade a player to another? Your employer can’t trade you. Aha, there it is, first sentence in the rule: “A Club may assign to another Club an existing contract with a player.” It’s collectively bargained.]
Well, Rule 9 doesn’t read quite like it used to. Scroll on down to 9(b)(3) and you will see a “closed period” that limits the general rule permitting trades:
No Major League Uniform Player’s Contract (including for outrighted players) shall be traded to another Major League Club during the period commencing 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on July 31 (the “Major League Trade Deadline”) and ending upon the day following the day that the last game of the World Series starts.
So, MLB contracts simply cannot be dealt between the deadline and the end of the World Series. The rule not only squashes late-season trade possibilities, but prevents teams from getting a head start on offseason work during the postseason.
Notice that the rule specifically forbids deals involving MLB contracts attached to players that aren’t currently on the 40-man roster by virtue of having been outrighted. (E.g. Rusney Castillo, Yasmany Tomas.) That cuts off an obvious possible loophole, since teams would otherwise be able to send under-water contracts through outright waivers and then strike deals in which they absorbed some of the remaining obligation. Essentially, without that proviso, the old revocable waiver trade period would have been converted to an irrevocable waiver trade period. Instead, high-priced veterans whose contracts are too expensive to be claimed — say, increasingly interesting Royals hurler Ian Kennedy — will have to be dealt before the trade deadline or in the offseason.
But what about Kennedy and his ilk? Can they still move during the month of August? The answer is yes. Rule 9(b)(3) specifically refers to trades. When a club seeks waivers to assign a player outright to the minor leagues, all other teams have an opportunity to file a claim requesting assignment of the contract. That’s all governed by Rule 10, which does not prohibit movement via claims after the trade deadline. Of course, placing a claim means taking on all remaining obligations under the contract.
There is one clear way in which teams can still acquire reinforcements in the event that a desperate need arises: dealing for players that are still playing on minors contracts. Rule 9(b)(4) sets forth a no-trade period for such players and says nothing about the trade deadline. There isn’t any language expressly stating that minor-league contracts can be moved in August, but the legal interpretation maxim expressio unius est exclusio alterius suggests that’s the intended result. That’s not the most promising source of talent for a contender — top prospects won’t likely be dealt under these circumstances and otherwise the talent level just won’t be elite — but this could well provide an avenue for necessary fill-in pieces.
Are there any other exceptions or ways around the rule? No obvious loopholes appear on the face of the rules, but it’s possible to imagine crafty handshake agreements. Suppose an overpriced veteran is placed on waivers and — surprise, surprise — gets claimed. Then, at a later point (later in August? in the offseason?) an imbalanced trade could be struck between the two teams involved in the claim to help offset the excess financial obligations taken on by the contender.
Would that pass muster? Determined and truly sly operators might be able to pull something off, but it may not be worth the risk. The drafters of the rules were well aware that evasion might be attempted. Rather than trying to foresee every particular type of maneuver, they added a general proviso in Rule 9(b)(5):
“The Commissioner’s Office will prohibit any transaction (or series of transactions) that, in the judgment of the Commissioner’s Office, appears (or appear) designed to circumvent the prohibitions of Rule 9(b).”
Distilled to its essence, this is the new state of affairs:
Between the trade deadline and end of the World Series, MLB players cannot be traded but may be claimed off waivers just like the rest of the year. Players on minor-league contracts can be traded as normal, but MLB contracts that have passed through outright waivers cannot be swapped. The commissioner is empowered to strike down any creative attempts to bypass the rules.