Examining Stephen Strasburg’s Opt-Out Possibility
It has now been 10 years since the Nationals used the first pick in the 2009 draft on right-hander Stephen Strasburg, whose major league debut a season later came with great fanfare. Strasburg drew comparisons to Hall of Fame hurlers leading up to his initial start June 8, 2010, and he didn’t disappoint that night. The flamethrowing 21-year-old introduced himself by fanning 14 Pirates and walking none in a seven-inning, two-run performance, leading to hope such outings would become the norm and he’d emerge as a perennial Cy Young contender. Nine years later, Strasburg’s trophy case is devoid of a Cy Young, but that doesn’t mean he has been a letdown in D.C.
There have been rocky moments in Strasburg’s career, including injury woes (he underwent Tommy John surgery late in his rookie season, to name one example) and the Nationals’ infamous decision to shut him down amid a pennant race in 2012. The Nationals didn’t take home a World Series without Strasburg that fall – nor have they even won a playoff series with him on their roster, if you can believe it. Still, the Nats can’t complain over what Strasburg has given them dating back to his electrifying introduction.
If a pitcher’s record matters to you, Strasburg has won 99 of 154 decisions en route to a .643 winning percentage. More importantly, Strasburg has notched a 3.14 ERA/2.90 FIP with 10.6 K/9 against 2.35 BB/9 in 218 starts and 1,308 2/3 innings, and his lifetime 33.1 fWAR ranks 11th among starters since 2010.
As good as Strasburg has been, he has taken a backseat in Washington to the even better Max Scherzer since the latter joined the franchise in 2015. Scherzer is perhaps what many thought Strasburg would become – a dominant workhorse with three Cy Youngs to his name. But while Scherzer may be the gold standard among current pitchers, Strasburg hasn’t been miles behind him in 2019. Durability hasn’t been a problem this season for the soon-to-be 31-year-old Strasburg, who entered Tuesday averaging almost seven frames per start across 12 tries and ranking sixth in innings (79). At the same time, Strasburg boasts the majors’ ninth-best strikeout rate (11.16 per nine), 13th-highest K/BB ratio (4.9) and 22nd-ranked groundball percentage (48.9) – all of which has helped lead to a 3.19 ERA/2.68 FIP.
Strasburg doesn’t bring the same type of velocity he used to, evidenced by the sub-94 mph average on his fastball, but it hasn’t mattered. His four-seamer and sinker have been among the game’s premier fastballs this year, per FanGraphs, which assigns even higher marks to his curveball. Strasburg has been much more reliant on his sinker and curve than ever this season, while he has all but scrapped his slider. Hitters have posted a pitiful .251 weighted on-base average/.240 xwOBA against Strasburg’s four-pitch mix (he also throws a changeup better than 18 percent of the time), making him one of the majors’ most difficult starters to hit in 2019.
If Strasburg keeps this up over the next few months, he could have an important call to make once the season ends. By then, Strasburg will have a remaining four years and $100MM (some of which is deferred) on the seven-year, $175MM extension he signed with the Nationals in May 2016. However, Strasburg’s deal comes with an opt-out decision after both the 2019 and ’20 campaigns, meaning he could walk away from a guaranteed nine figures and take his chances on the open market this offseason. In doing so, Strasburg would likely fall behind only Astros righty Gerrit Cole on the pecking order of free-agent starters,
Strasburg would be taking an incredible risk in trying his hand at free agency, of course, though seeing a starter surpass the $100MM barrier at or over the age of 30 isn’t unheard of. Scherzer pulled it off as a 30-year-old when the Nationals gave him seven years and $215MM entering 2015. The Diamondbacks signed righty Zack Greinke to a six-year, $206.5MM guarantee on the cusp of his age-32 season, 2016. That same offseason, 30-year-old lefty David Price (Red Sox) and one of Strasburg’s former teammates, soon-to-be 30-year-old righty Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), scored paydays worth a combined $327MM. Righty Yu Darvish was just months away from his 32nd birthday when the Cubs inked him to a six-year, $126MM deal going into 2018. And one of Strasburg’s current rotation mates, soon-to-be 30-year-old lefty Patrick Corbin, put pen to paper on a six-year, $140MM pact this past winter.
Strasburg could look to Scherzer, Greinke, Price, Zimmermann, Darvish and Corbin for inspiration. However, he’d also have to consider other accomplished hurlers who haven’t gotten free agency to work for them in recent years. Righty Jake Arrieta had his sights set on a $100MM or even $200MM guarantee going into 2018, his age-32 season, but wound up getting three years and $75MM from the Phillies. Nowadays, as anyone who pays a sliver of attention to free-agent activity knows, 31-year-old southpaw Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been able to find a job seven months after hitting the market. Keuchel wanted nine figures when he ventured to free agency, but he may be lucky to even pull in a multiyear deal at this juncture.
The fact that Arrieta and Keuchel came with qualifying offers and draft pick compensation attached helped tamp down interest when they reached the market. Strasburg would also have a QO hindering him, as the Nationals wouldn’t just let him walk for nothing, and that’s something else he’ll have to think about. Fortunately for Strasburg, he looks more formidable than Arrieta did during his contract year or Keuchel did during his platform season. That doesn’t mean Strasburg will opt out – especially given the positive relationship he and agent Scott Boras have with Nationals ownership – but he may have a real decision on his hands in a few months.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Angel Who Can’t Miss
The Angels are off to a 29-31 start two-plus months into the season, but the Halos’ unimposing 60-game record isn’t the fault of their offense. The team’s Mike Trout-led attack ranks sixth in the majors in wRC+ (108) and 12th in runs (301), in part because it seldom strikes out. No team is running a lower K percentage (16.3) or a higher contact rate (82.9) than the Angels, though their ringleader isn’t Trout in either regard. Sure, Trout’s well above average in both categories (what else is new?), but it’s teammate David Fletcher who reigns as the Angels’ low-strikeout, high-contact king.
The 25-year-old Fletcher earned his first league promotion just under a year ago (on June 12, 2018), though he certainly wasn’t seen as a can’t-miss prospect at the time. But the infielder/outfielder hasn’t missed, literally or figuratively, in his first 12 months in the majors. In fact, Fletcher has already racked up 4.0 fWAR in 530 major league plate appearances. Since Fletcher’s first game last June 13, only three second basemen (Javier Baez, Whit Merrifield and Ketel Marte) have outdone him in the fWAR department. While a large portion of Fletcher’s 2018 value came from his defense, which has remained a strength this season, he’s now making the majority of his hay with his right-handed swing.
Fletcher has walked to the plate 223 times this season and recorded a .322/.377/.459 line, good for an impressive 128 wRC+. He’s not doing it with plus power, having swatted four home runs and logged a below-average .137 ISO. Fletcher’s also not reaching base nearly 38 percent of the time because of a special ability to draw walks; thus far, he has collected a free pass at a roughly average rate (8.1 percent).
Instead, Fletcher’s getting by on the fact that pitchers just can’t fool him. Fletcher’s ability to make contact is extraordinary. He sits first in all of Major League Baseball in strikeout rate (5.8 percent), swinging-strike rate (1.9 percent), contact rate (94.6 percent), zone contact rate (98.5) and out-of-zone contact rate (88.1). And Fletcher is rather selective, ranking second to Trout in swing rate (34.9 percent). In essence, when Fletcher actually does swing, he hits everything thrown at him. What’s more, he adds to hurlers’ stress by seldom going after pitches that aren’t over the plate. While Fletcher’s chase percentage (24.2) isn’t elite, it still puts him in a 25th-place tie in the sport.
The skills Fletcher’s demonstrating in the majors aren’t anything new. Fletcher previously showed off tremendous contact ability in the minors, including when he hit .350/.394/.559 with a 7.6 percent strikeout rate in 275 Triple-A plate appearances last year. The question is whether he can continue to offer production along his current lines as he moves forward. Signs are encouraging in that regard.
Fletcher’s .330 batting average on balls in play isn’t ridiculous, especially for someone with better-than-average speed and one of the league’s lowest fly ball rates. For the most part, delving into Statcast metrics leads to more positives for Fletcher. Although his exit velocity and hard-hit rate each rank in the league’s bottom 7 percentile (or worse), his expected batting average and expected weighted on-base average are near the top. Fletcher’s xBA (.334) is third in baseball, trailing only superstars Cody Bellinger and Anthony Rendon. Meanwhile, Fletcher’s .363 xwOBA is actually a hair better than his real wOBA (.361).
Four years after the Angels used a sixth-round pick on Fletcher in 2015, it appears the club has something in the 5-foot-9 Southern California native. In a league where balls in play are dropping and home runs and strikeouts are soaring, Fletcher’s on the other extreme. He’s a unique and effective player who just might be in the early stages of becoming a long-term staple in Anaheim.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Yasmani Grandal Contract Looks Even Better In Retrospect
Just because you get a nice price doesn’t mean you oughta buy something. And it doesn’t mean that the thing you purchase will deliver utility commensurate with its cost.
That’s true for MLB teams considering free agents as much as online shoppers contemplating another splurge … except that ballclubs face a notable limitation in the form of roster rules. Teams can’t necessarily have that super-functional fanny pack and a designer handbag, at least without giving up some other much-needed accessory.
In baseball, especially, the gold standard isn’t cost-efficiency standing alone. It’s getting (at least) good value for a premium asset that fulfills a need.
Every so often, teams more or less luck into supreme value. The Tigers deserve credit for re-discovering J.D. Martinez, to be sure, but that’s also just an extremely good outcome on the sort of dice rolls that happen every winter on marginal roster pieces.
Even more rare is the sort of opportunity that arose last winter for the Brewers: a chance to pick up an already-acknowledged premium player at a position of need for an extremely appealing price in free agency. Entering the winter, we predicted Yasmani Grandal would command $64MM over four years — a set of numbers that would’ve been higher had it not been for his stunning issues in the postseason. Instead, the Brewers picked up Grandal’s age-30 season for a measly $18.25MM. (Some of that is deferred as the buyout on a mutual option, but there’s no realistic shot of that being exercised.)
That deal seemed like an exceptional value proposition for the Milwaukee club at the moment it was struck. Before the signing, the club was slated to go with Manny Pina and Erik Kratz. Sure, they only got one year, but that was an opportunity to add a nice chunk of his prime without taking on any long-term risk. There really isn’t even a premium on the cost versus the scenario we proposed; on any lengthy free-agent deal, a team reasonably anticipates much of the on-field to come on the front end.
It’s somewhat anticlimactic to say that … well, the deal is working out exactly as it was drawn up. He’s doing just what he has done before, and then some. Grandal is drawing a lot of walks while striking out at a palatable level and hitting for good power. With his hard-hit rate up early, Grandal is also maintaining a higher BABIP (.310) and batting average (.277) than usual.
The result on offense is a 133 wRC+. Grandal is on pace to set a personal-high in the long ball department, in no small part because he’s being run out in the lineup on a near-everyday basis. Since they aren’t obligated to him for the future, the Brewers don’t need to worry too much about long-term wear and tear. Of course, Grandal is also a strong defender. He continues to grade as a premium pitch framer. And he’s even running a little, having matched his single-season career-high with three stolen bases. Fangraphs’ BsR measure has long loathed Grandal’s work on the bases, but now views him as a neutral overall runner.
Grandal is well on his way to matching or exceeding the roughly 5 WAR annual level of play he sustained with the Dodgers. Getting that sort of player for a one-year deal at the qualifying offer price is kind of hard to believe. What even happened?
It certainly took somewhat unique circumstances for this deal to come together. Grandal turned down a substantial, multi-year offer that wasn’t to his liking. He also decided not to wait out a bigger contract at all costs, though waiting until early/mid-January to sign wasn’t exactly rushing into a deal. Even on a one-year scenario, this deal seemed like it came in cheap; the Braves spent $23MM in hopes of a bounceback year from an older player with a more significant injury history (but also more upside) in Josh Donaldson.
It’s fair to note that things are working out thus far for Grandal as well. He obviously preferred this approach. He ought to have every chance of securing a larger and longer contract if he so desires this winter.
Still, this contract was a fantasy scenario for the Brewers when the offseason started. And so far, the reality has exceeded the dream.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Draft Retrospection: Angels Pick A Legend
We’re now at the 10-year mark since the Angels stumbled on one of the greatest players in the history of baseball. With the 25th pick in the 2009 draft, the club selected a New Jersey-based high schooler named Mike Trout. At the time of Trout’s selection, MLB.com wrote of the 17-year-old:
“Trout is a toolsy high school center fielder who was gaining momentum as the weather in the Northeast warmed up. He looks more like a football safety — his position in high school — than a center fielder, but has the tools to play there with plus speed. He just started switch-hitting to enhance his offensive value, and with some changes to his approach at the plate should hit for some power down the line. There is some rawness with the bat, but he has the kind of upside many teams look for in a high school position player, and was moving into first-round conversations as a result.”
Trout’s ability to hit from both sides of the plate didn’t carry into the pros, but it hasn’t mattered. Now 27, the right-hander has slashed an astounding .306/.419/.575 with 254 home runs and 196 stolen bases in 4,919 plate appearances since he debuted with the Angels in 2011. Among all-time major leaguers who have accrued at least 4,500 trips to the plate, Trout ranks sixth in wRC+ (172), trailing a few players you may have heard of in Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby and Barry Bonds, and already sits 67th in fWAR (68.8). Trout looks like a mortal lock to eventually exceed 100 fWAR, something only 20 position players have ever done.
Also a seven-time All-Star, a two-time AL MVP and a Rookie of the Year winner, Trout’s impact has far outweighed anyone else’s from his draft class. The only other current major league notables from the ’09 first round include Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg (No. 1), Mets righty Zack Wheeler (No. 6, to the Giants), Rangers lefty Mike Minor (No. 7), Mariners righty Mike Leake (No. 8, to the Reds), Dodgers center fielder A.J. Pollock (No. 18, to the Diamondbacks), Rangers righty Shelby Miller (No. 19, to the Cardinals), Twins righty Kyle Gibson (No. 22) and Blue Jays outfielder Randal Grichuk (No. 24, to the Angels).
The Halos lucked out in landing Trout immediately after Grichuk, who never took an at-bat with the franchise. In 2013, four years after the Angels drafted Grichuk, they traded him to the Cardinals in a package for third baseman David Freese and reliever Fernando Salas. Grichuk has since become a respectable pro, one whom the Jays signed to an extension worth a guaranteed $52MM in April, while Trout has emerged as a lock to end up with a plaque in Cooperstown. And Trout may have never been an Angel if not for longtime big league first baseman Mark Teixeira. The Angels acquired Teixeira from the Braves in July 2008, and after Tex enjoyed an excellent few months in Anaheim, he left for the Yankees in free agency during the ensuing offseason. The Angels, for their trouble, received the compensatory pick they’d use to select Trout.
“It was crazy. It was unbelievable,” Trout told MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom in regards to draft night. “There was a lot of stuff going through my mind. You’re anxious, you’re excited, you’re obviously nervous. You want to get picked. You know … hopefully be selected in the top three rounds. But being picked, well … if you’re up there on the first day, it obviously means something.”
This past March, almost a full decade after they took Trout, the Angels extended him on a record contract worth $360MM over 10 years. Trout’s now in line to spend his entire 20s and 30s in Anaheim, which the club likely never expected when it took a flier on him in the crapshoot known as the draft. On Monday, 10 years after the Trout selection, the Dodgers grabbed Tulane third baseman Kody Hoese 25th overall. Another Trout? Highly doubtful, but they can dream.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Recent No. 2 Picks
With the first round of the Major League Baseball draft in the works, teams are angling to land long-term cornerstones as we speak. The Royals, for instance, tabbed high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. second overall on Monday. If things go according to plan, he’ll evolve into a franchise player the way other recent second overall selections have. The best No. 2 choices over the past several years have been Kris Bryant, who joined the Cubs in 2013, and 2015 Astros pick Alex Bregman. The two have become stars since their respective draft nights, but whom would you rather have?
Bryant, now 27, exploded on the scene in 2015, winning NL Rookie of the Year honors with a 6.1-fWAR season, and hasn’t looked back since. The third baseman/outfielder added an NL MVP and a World Series to his list of accomplishments in 2016, the season he helped the Cubs break a 108-year title drought. Bryant’s now a two-time All-Star with a career slash line of .284/.386/.518 (141 wRC+), 120 home runs and 25.3 fWAR in 2,715 lifetime plate appearances.
Bregman’s also a world champion, having aided in the Astros’ victory in 2017. That was the year after Bregman debuted in the majors. Since then, the 25-year-old infielder – whose primary position is third – has earned an All-Star nod and batted a Bryant-like .280/.369/.507 (140 wRC+) with 75 long balls, 31 steals and 14.8 fWAR across 1,804 trips to the plate.
Beyond the fact that they’re two of the most valuable players in baseball, Bryant and Bregman are each under control for at least the next couple seasons. Bryant, who’s on a $12.9MM salary, has two more years of arbitration eligibility left after this one. The Astros, on the other hand, will avoid the arb process with Bregman as they move forward. Houston locked Bregman up to a five-year, $100MM extension prior to the season, meaning he’s under wraps through 2024.
Age and team control may play a factor as you choose between Bryant and Bregman. Regardless of which player you prefer, though, it’s obvious these are two of the premier first-rounders in recent history. They give hope to every downtrodden franchise that had a high pick Monday.
(Poll link for app users)
Who's the better building block?
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Alex Bregman 66% (4,998)
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Kris Bryant 34% (2,632)
Total votes: 7,630
Looking For A Match In A Madison Bumgarner Trade
It’s safe to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner will be one of the hottest commodities available leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Bumgarner – set to turn 30 the day after the deadline (Aug. 1) – is among the game’s most accomplished hurlers in both the regular season and the playoffs, and he’s not under contract past this season. Thanks to the latter point, the out-of-contention Giants may elect to part with Bumgarner, who has been with the organization since it chose him 10th overall in the 2007 draft.
Going back to his 2010 debut in the majors, Bumgarner owns a sterling 3.07 ERA/3.26 FIP with 8.75 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 43.8 percent groundball rate in 1,712 1/3 innings. Bumgarner has added 102 /3 innings of 2.11 ERA playoff pitching to his resume, making him one of the game’s go-to hurler’s in key situations. He hasn’t pitched in the postseason since 2016, though, and hasn’t resembled the durable ace he once did earlier in his career.
Bumgarner amassed at least 200 innings of high-quality run prevention from 2011-16, but a dirt bike crash limited him to 111 frames in 2017, and a fractured pinky held him to 129 2/3 innings last season. All told, since Bumgarner’s six-year run of excellence came to an end, he has recorded a 3.46 ERA/3.88 FIP with 8.12 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 40.8 percent grounder mark over 314 2/3 innings.
As shown by his output over the past few seasons, Bumgarner has remained a solid starter even as the Giants have fallen out of contention. Bumgarner’s not the ace-caliber option he once was, though, and with a few months’ control left (on a $12MM salary), San Francisco’s not in position to demand a king’s ransom for MadBum if it deals him in the next two months. The Giants don’t seem like a team that’s close to returning to glory, however, and they own of baseball’s worst farm systems. With that in mind, trading Bumgarner to bolster the franchise’s collection of young talent before the end of July could be a logical move for the organization.
If the Giants take the plunge and attempt to part with Bumgarner, there are several potential fits for the franchise icon. That said, one possible suitor may exit the mix by signing free-agent southpaw Dallas Keuchel, who could ink a contract any second from now, and Bumgarner’s eight-team no-trade clause means he’ll have a certain amount of say in where he goes next. Those factor’s won’t kill interest in Bumgarner, however, as shown below (in alphabetical order)….
- Angels: The Halos have gotten little from their rotation this season, but the Mike Trout-led club is still just 2 1/2 games out of wild-card position. That doesn’t mean the Angels will be in the Bumgarner sweepstakes, but if they really want to push for a playoff spot, they’ll need to upgrade their rotation. Free-agent signings Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill simply haven’t worked out to this point, leaving the Angels with a need for an established veteran in their starting five.
- Astros: Keuchel, Charlie Morton and the injured Lance McCullers Jr. have all left Houston’s rotation since last season, leaving Wade Miley, Brad Peacock and Corbin Martin to pick up the pieces behind Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. That’s not a bad group by any means, but Verlander and Cole act as the rising tide that lifts all boats. Bumgarner would look pretty nice behind them, though his limited no-trade clause gives him the right to nix a Giants-Astros deal.
- Braves: Atlanta’s one of the teams Bumgarner could block a trade to, but as a childhood Braves fan who grew up in the South (North Carolina), it’s tough to see him blocking a deal to Georgia. The need’s obvious for the Braves, whose rotation has lacked answers behind Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Julio Teheran this season.
- Brewers: Milwaukee’s rotation took a couple hits over the weekend in the form of injuries to Gio Gonzalez and Jhoulys Chacin, the latter of whom has trudged through a terrible season. Only Gonzalez, Brandon Woodruff, Zach Davies and Chase Anderson have given the Brewers’ rotation passable production this season, which leaves room for Bumgarner. However, they’re on Bumgarner’s no-trade list.
- Cardinals: There hasn’t been a lot to like in St. Louis’ shaky rotation this year, which could lead to a Bumgarner acquisition. The Redbirds are on his no-trade list, though.
- Mets: Whether the disappointing Mets would make an aggressive move to repair their rotation is in question, but the need exists. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz could use a better complement than Jason Vargas.
- Padres: San Diego has been on the hunt for a front-line starter since the winter, and Bumgarner could fit the bill if the team’s bullish enough on him. The Padres, as an NL West rival, are certainly familiar enough with Bumgarner. He’d clearly strengthen a group which hasn’t received much from anyone but Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, Matt Strahm or Eric Lauer. It’s worth noting the Padres are monitoring the workloads of Paddack and Strahm, which could limit their impact as the season progresses.
- Phillies: This has been a rather underwhelming season for Philadelphia’s rotation, including potential ace Aaron Nola. There’s obviously space for Bumgarner, though he’d have to approve a trade to the Phillies.
- Rangers: This is a long shot, but the Rangers are unexpectedly in wild-card contention and would benefit from Bumgarner. He’d join a team whose rotation has gotten little aside from Mike Minor, Lance Lynn and Ariel Jurado (over a mere three starts in Jurado’s case).
- Rays: The opener method has worked well for Tampa Bay, but the club has turned to that strategy largely because it’s lacking an adequate supply of credible starters. Bumgarner would give the Rays another legitimate traditional starter alongside Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Morton, assuming Glasnow returns this summer from a forearm strain.
- Red Sox: The reigning world champs are on Bumgarner’s no-trade list, but there’s a need for a rotation stabilizer in Beantown. Chris Sale hasn’t been his usual ace-like self, Nathan Eovaldi has been injured, and Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez have only offered back-end production to this point. The luxury tax is a concern for the Red Sox, though – they’re at upward of $251MM in that regard, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, and will pay a 75 percent tax for every dollar spent over the $246MM mark while losing 10 spots in the 2020 draft.
- Rockies: Colorado’s rotation was a strength last year, but that hasn’t been the case this season despite the best efforts of German Marquez and Jon Gray. The club just demoted 2018 Cy Young contender Kyle Freeland to the minors. He, like Bumgarner, is a lefty.
- Twins: Judging by their interest in Keuchel, we know the first-place Twins aren’t content with their rotation. Bumgarner would fit in nicely in a quintet that hasn’t received much production after Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez.
- Yankees: New York’s yet another contender on Bumgarner’s no-trade list. That aside, the Yankees should be on the lookout for another starter. Ace Luis Severino hasn’t pitched at all this season on account of a lat strain, while No. 2 starter James Paxton has never been the most durable option. Meanwhile, 2019 standout Domingo German hasn’t exceeded 100 innings in a season since 2014 – when he was a Single-A pitcher – and the soon-to-be 39-year-old CC Sabathia‘s hardly an endless source of innings in the twilight of his career.
Of the 14 teams listed above, some are better positioned to land Bumgarner than others, as shown in the most recent farm system rankings of Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs. Judging by the amount of potential suitors for Bumgarner, though, the Giants should get a respectable package for the franchise icon if they move him. Two end-of-July deadlines ago, the Rangers sent righty Yu Darvish to the Dodgers for three players, including then-top 100 prospect Willie Calhoun. The Rangers followed that up by moving lefty Cole Hamels to the Cubs last year for three players, though no one from the trio was a premium prospect at the time. While Bumgarner won’t bring back an enormous return this summer, he ought to warrant something along the lines of what Darvish landed the Rangers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Kimbrel, CarGo, Nationals
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with Tim Dierkes.
Panda For Sale Or Rent
The Giants have some obviously appealing trade candidates. They also have some undesirable contracts. And then there’s the Kung Fu Panda … one of the most unique players in recent memory. He has had some low lows on the ballfield, but he did not start out as some woeful novelty. And he isn’t one now.
We’ve already seen the suggestion floated by some Giants reporters, so … can I interest you in a gently used Pablo Sandoval?
Let’s start on the contract side. Sandoval is way too expensive. But he’s also dirt cheap! He’s earning a cool $19MM this year. The Red Sox are paying all but $545K of it. They’re also on the hook for a $5MM buyout next year, at which time Sandoval will be back on the open market and searching for a much more modest contract than the $95MM deal he inked in November of 2014. It doesn’t get any cheaper than this, folks. You’re paying at least that much to fill the roster spot regardless, so this rental player comes with an effective cash cost of absolutely nothing.
The question remains … do you really want a rental Panda? If so, how much value should you really give to make this happen?
If you’ve followed the Giants from afar, you might assume that Sandoval has slumped with most of the rest of the roster. In fact, he’s leading the team in wRC+ (minimum 10 plate appearances) and fWAR (he’s tied with Buster Posey at 1.0 apiece, but Sandoval has done it in just over two-thirds the plate appearances).
Yep, it has been a vintage performance thus far — a deep cut, in fact. Sandoval hasn’t produced at these kinds of levels since way back in 2011, before he settled in as a solidly above-average but comfortably sub-elite hitter and then ultimately collapsed in Boston. Through 109 plate appearances, the switch-hitting Sandoval carries a .288/.321/.596 slash with seven home runs. He’s delivering well-graded glovework at the hot corner. Oh, and he has not only filled in at first and second in recent years, but he’s even making occasional scoreless appearances on the mound just for kicks.
No money down. Zero maintenance. Versatile. Stout. Below Kelley Blue Book?!
That’s the dealer’s pitch, anyway. Almost sounds too good to be true. Just to be safe, let’s check the Carfax and have a gander underneath the hood …
Hmm well there is one catch you ought to be aware of right off the bat. Sandoval is a switch-hitter, true, but he has been absolutely dreadful against left-handed pitching. And that’s really not a new thing, if we’re being honest. But hey … at least he’s good on the heavy side of the platoon!
Yeah, okay, you’re a little worried about the sample size? If we’re focusing on what he has done against righties … yeah, it’s eighty plate appearances of a thousand-plus OPS hitting. But yikes … a 4.8% walk rate to go with a 27.4% strikeout rate? A .360 BABIP is the only thing supporting his .345 OBP. And that 31.8% HR/FB rate … not gonna last. He’s feasting on some pitchers that aren’t all at the tops of their games. Hard to put too much stock in this kind of showing from a part-time player.
To be fair, Sandoval is legitimately ripping the baseball right now, at least when it is being thrown at him from someone’s right arm. Statcast it. 14.9% barrel rate … about triple what he was averaging during the Statcast Era. 45.2% hard-contact rate. The results are outstripping even that impressive contact (.385 wOBA vs. .362 wOBA), but not by a ridiculous margin. He’s hitting the ball to the opposite field more than ever, which perhaps hints at a change in approach that is helping to produce these results.
That’s all well and good, but the bottom line is that it’s just not a terribly sustainable formula. At his best, in his first stint with the Giants, Sandoval was a model of K/BB consistency, with solid walk rates (average for that era; around 8%) and low strikeout rates (between 13.1% and 13.5% in every season from 2009 and 2014). Now he’s at half that walk rate and twice that strikeout rate — well on the wrong side of current league average in both respects. Sandoval’s 15.9% swinging-strike rate is by far the highest of his career. The newly aggressive approach is working for now, but it doesn’t feel like it’ll last.
It’s not hard to imagine the Panda changing hands this summer. He could be a functional piece for the right team. But my expectation is that it’ll be for a rather minimal trade return, even though an acquiring team won’t have to come out of pocket for his services. You may be a buyer, but I’m walking away.
Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract
Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu could have shopped his services to all 30 major league teams last offseason, but the career-long Dodger opted against going to the open market. Instead, Ryu accepted a $17.9MM qualifying offer to stay in Los Angeles, in part because of a long list of injury troubles that could have hampered his earning power. Dating back to 2013, the Korean-born Ryu’s first season in the majors, he has missed significant time because of arm problems (including shoulder and elbow surgeries) as well as foot and groin issues. The latter forced Ryu to the 10-day IL earlier this season, but he got off to a strong start before then and has come back far better since returning April 20.
After throwing just 82 1/3 innings last season, Ryu has already amassed 73 frames through the first two months of 2019. Ryu shut out the Mets over 7 2/3 innings on Thursday to finish May with an incredible four scoreless starts in six tries. Across 45 2/3 innings this month, Ryu pitched to a near-spotless 0.59 ERA with 36 strikeouts against a meager three walks. He now owns easily the majors’ leading ERA (1.48) and walk rate (0.62 per nine, with 8.51 K/9). His success in the run prevention and walk categories doesn’t look like a fluke either. Ryu, after all, put up a 1.97 ERA with 1.64 BB/9 (against 9.73 K/9) during his injury-shortened 2018.
Even if Ryu isn’t quite as great as his ERA indicates, his 2.78 FIP over the past season-plus is befitting of a front-line starter and ranks sixth among all pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings since 2018. He’s behind a pretty good quintet of Jacob deGrom, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Gerrit Cole in that regard. DeGrom, Sale and Corbin have each scored nine-figure contracts going back to the offseason, while Cole figures to join them when he reaches free agency during the upcoming winter.
Ryu’s also on schedule to reach the open market, though he’s not going to cash in to the same extent as Cole. Concerns over Ryu’s durability figure to combine with the soon-to-be 33-year-old’s age and 2013-17 performance (when he was good but not great) to cap his earning power. However, he can look in his own locker room to find a lefty who overcame injury questions, advanced age and a far shorter track record than Ryu’s to recently score a large payday in free agency. That’s Rich Hill, whom the Dodgers re-signed to a three-year, $48MM guarantee heading into 2017 – his age-37 season.
Free agency worked out for Hill, but one would be remiss to ignore the fact that the process has taken an unfriendly turn for certain hurlers since he landed his payday. Jake Arrieta received less guaranteed cash than expected in 2018, while Gio Gonzalez settled for a minor league deal entering this season and Dallas Keuchel remains unsigned. At the same time, however, Nathan Eovaldi, Alex Cobb, J.A. Happ, Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn did surmount obstacles of their own en route to $30MM-plus guarantees in the previous two offseasons.
We’ll use the $30MM number as a jumping-off point for this poll, but if Ryu continues to perform like a front-line option and stay reasonably healthy, he could blow past it.
(Poll link for app users)
How much do you expect Ryu to earn on his next contract?
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$60MM or more 30% (1,622)
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$40MM-$49MM 27% (1,476)
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$50MM-$59MM 23% (1,256)
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$30MM-$39MM 19% (1,026)
Total votes: 5,380
Progress Report: Pittsburgh’s Return For Gerrit Cole
In one of the most significant trades of the 2017-18 offseason, the Pirates sent right-hander Gerrit Cole to the Astros for a four-player package. The move put an end to nonstop trade rumors centering on Cole, who had been a Pirate since they selected him first overall in the 2011 draft. Cole largely lived up to the billing in Pittsburgh, but with the Pirates being a low-budget team and Scott Boras functioning as the hurler’s agent, the club had little choice but to deal him. Cole was down to his penultimate year of control, and the Pirates knew they weren’t going to be able to prevent him from reaching free agency after 2019.
Cole has excelled with the Astros since the deal went down, though even they haven’t locked him up to an extension. The soon-to-be 29-year-old is likely to reach the open market after the season, when he could be the top player available. In the meantime, Cole could help guide an elite Houston team to a World Series championship. On the other hand, the Pirates haven’t contended since they traded Cole (in fairness, nor did they in his final two seasons in the Steel City). At 27-28, it appears the Buccos are on their way to a fourth consecutive year without a playoff berth. The package they got for Cole hasn’t really helped matters.
Righty Joe Musgrove, arguably the headliner from Pittsburgh’s point of view, came over after a year in which he moved to the Astros’ bullpen and stood out. But the Pirates shifted Musgrove back to the rotation, and aside from a horrendous showing in May, he has resembled a decent big league starter. While Musgrove has given up 27 earned runs on 38 hits in 30 innings this month, his overall numbers as a Pirate are fine. The 26-year-old has given Pittsburgh 30 starts and 178 1/3 frames of 4.29 ERA/3.60 FIP ball with 7.57 K/9, 2.12 BB/9 and a 44.8 percent groundball rate dating back to his arrival.
In the aggregate, Musgrove has been more the solution than the problem for the Pirates. He’s also on a pre-arbitration salary this season and still has three years of arb control thereafter. Realistically, there’s not a lot to complain about with Musgrove, though the same hasn’t been true of the other three players the Pirates got back.
The hope was that big, hard-throwing righty Michael Feliz would emerge as a lights-out member of the Pirates’ bullpen right away. They’re still waiting. Feliz managed a 4.13 FIP and 10.38 K/9 in 47 2/3 innings last season, but he walked more than four batters per nine and limped to a 5.66 ERA. To make matters worse, the 25-year-old has spent most of this season in Triple-A. Across the 12 innings Feliz has logged in the majors in 2019, he has surrendered 11 earned runs on 12 hits and nine walks (with an impressive 16 strikeouts, it should be noted).
Outfielder Jason Martin, who was the Astros’ 15th-ranked prospect at the time of the trade, totaled the first 38 plate appearances of his major league career earlier this season. He didn’t produce much, though, nor has the 23-year-old acquitted himself all that well at the minors’ highest level thus far. Martin got a promotion after crushing Double-A pitching last season, but he’s the owner of a meager .225/.284/.371 line in 338 Triple-A attempts.
That leaves 26-year-old third baseman Colin Moran, who has garnered the most playing time of anyone Pittsburgh got back for Cole. The former top 100 prospect has been just a guy with the Pirates – a league-average hitter whose WAR suggests he’s something between an average player and a replacement-level performer. Over 618 trips to the plate as a Pirate, Moran has hit a respectable but unexciting .274/.335/.414 (102 wRC+) with 17 home runs and 1.1 fWAR.
Including Moran’s contributions, the Pirates have gotten 4.7 fWAR out of the Cole trade so far. Last July, seven months after that deal, the Pirates traded two hyped young players (righty Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Austin Meadows) to Tampa Bay for a potential Cole replacement righty Chris Archer. That transaction has worked out far worse for the Pirates to this point, as Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs recently explained.
The Cole and Archer moves have left the Pirates with a bunch of controllable parts, but nobody from the group looks like much to write home about so far. At the same time, the swaps stripped the organization of a trio of players who have been high-end contributors elsewhere. Two of them, Glasnow and Meadows, are under control for the foreseeable future. These are mistakes a small-budget team can ill afford to make, and they help explain why the Pirates are stuck in neutral.